Climate Warming Research Articles

Acceleration of phosphorus weathering under warm climates.

The release of phosphorous (P) via chemical weathering is a vital process that regulates the global cycling of numerous key elements and shapes the size of the Earth's biosphere. It has long been postulated that global climate should theoretically play a prominent role in governing P weathering rates. Yet, there is currently a lack of direct evidence for this relationship based on empirical data at the global scale. Here, using a compilation of temperature and P content data of global surface soils (0 to 30 cm), we demonstrate that P release does enhance at high mean annual surface temperatures. We propose that this amplification of nutrient supply with warming is a critical component of Earth's natural thermostat, and that this relationship likely caused expanded oceanic anoxia during past climate warming events. The potential acceleration of phosphorus loss from soils due to anthropogenic climate warming may pose threats to agricultural production, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and alter marine redox landscapes.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and the Impact of Urban Roof Roughness on Precipitation during the “23.7” Extreme Rainstorm against the Background of Climate Warming

Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and the Impact of Urban Roof Roughness on Precipitation during the “23.7” Extreme Rainstorm against the Background of Climate Warming

An Empirical Study on Hazards Faced by Marine Organisms

Marine ecosystems and aquatic habitats face a number of threats from humans. Serious conservation attention and efforts should be drawn and directed towards restoration of fragmented marine habitats and estuarine ecosystems. Threats are manifold: i.e., primarily from overexploitation of marine resources, overfishing, climate warming, sewage disposal, industrial chemical discharge, oil spills, invasive species, and dredging. MPAs are areas of the ocean that are set aside for conservation and have strict regulations on human activities. MPAs can help to protect marine life from overfishing, pollution, and other threats. India has established a number of MPAs, including the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Marine National Park, which is home to a diverse range of marine life. India has also enacted a number of fishing regulations, such as the Marine Fisheries Act, which is designed to protect fish stocks. The research method followed here is empirical Research. A total of 200 samples have been taken out of which is taken through Random sampling. The sample frame taken by the research through the general public based on a questionnaire .The primary sources are taken from the general public in the form of survey method. The information was collected from secondary sources from journal articles, books and reports of presidency non governmental organisations. The independent variable taken here is age, gender, education, occupation. The dependent variables are causes of marine pollution, marine organisms cruelty, marine habitat, transport etc. The statistical tool used here in this research is graph(mean) and scaling . The main aim of this research is to study and analyze the hazards faced by marine life and resources and the steps to protect them

Leaf polymorphism of beeches from the Jura (France) in the late Pliocene (Piacenzian): contribution to taxonomy in palaeobotany

Fossilized beech leaves were extracted from nodules in the Bletterans plateau (Jura, France) dating back to the Late Pliocene (Piacenzian, -2.7 Ma). During this period, seasonality was much less pronounced than it is today. A warm climate allowed the development of deciduous tree vegetation, comprising a mixture of tropical, subtropical, and temperate forests without modern analogues, including the presence of Fagus and Quercus. Various qualitative and quantitative morphological traits were studied, as well as comparisons with leaves from fossil species such as F. menzelii and F. kraeuselii,and leaves from present-day species like F. grandifolia and F. sylvatica. The most discriminative features include the basal angle, the angle between primary vein and secondary veins, the angle between primary vein and tertiary veins, and the density of tertiary veins. Three distinct groups stand out, referred to as morphotypes indicating environmental variations rather than genetic groups. Leaves of F. sylvatica separate into two distinct morphotypes, whereas the American species F. grandifolia, and the European species F. kraeuselii and F. menzelii, form a third morphotype. The Bletterans samples are close to these three morphotypes. These morphological correspondences do not allow associating a species to the jurassian samples, but they support the existence of leaf morphotypes acclimated to fluctuating environmental conditions.

Hydroclimate Risks to the Western US Electric Grid under a Warming Climate

Hydroclimate Risks to the Western US Electric Grid under a Warming Climate

Development of maximum relevant prior feature ensemble (MRPFE) index to characterize future drought using global climate models

Drought is one of the foremost outcomes of global warming and global climate change. It is a serious threat to humans and other living beings. To reduce the adverse impact of drought, mitigation strategies as well as sound projections of extreme events are essential. This research aims to strengthen the robustness of anticipated twenty-first century drought by combining different Global Climate Models (GCMs). In this article, we develop a new drought index, named Maximum Relevant Prior Feature Ensemble index that is based on the newly proposed weighting scheme, called weighted ensemble (WE). In the application, this study considers 32 randomly scattered grid points within the Tibetan Plateau region and 18 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) of precipitation. In this study, the comparative inferences of the WE scheme are made with the traditional simple model averaging (SMA). To investigate the trend and long-term probability of various classes, this research employs Markov chain steady states probability, Mann–Kendall trend test, and Sen’s Slope estimator. The outcomes of this research are twofold. Firstly, the comparative inference shows that the proposed weighting scheme has greater efficiency than SMA to conflate GCMs. Secondly, the research indicates that the Tibetan Plateau is projected to experience “moderate drought (MD)” in the twenty-first century.

Climate change and Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) in North America: modelling possible changes in range with different climate scenarios and interspecific interactions

AbstractOne of the greatest challenges for researchers today is understanding climate-change impacts on fish populations, particularly in vulnerable and understudied ecosystems such as the Canadian Arctic. Among other impacts, northern fishes will undergo thermal stress as atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are projected to rise globally. Models that consider how both environmental factors such as temperature and potential species interactions will impact population extirpation and species’ range contraction can help project the future distribution of a species in the face of a warming climate. Here, we investigate the climate-change impacts of rising temperatures and the potential northward distributional shift of brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) on Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus), Canada’s northernmost freshwater fish species. Specifically, we used a logistic regression model to establish baseline relationships between the current distribution of Arctic charr and the variables, degree-days (a key climate variable), geographical location, and brook charr occurrence. We developed the model applying the expected changes in degree-days to 2050 (25–50% increase from the average of 1976–2005) and 2080 (50–100% increase) while incorporating the historical distribution of Arctic charr to estimate the change in Arctic charr distribution over that time. We found that growing degree-days, longitude, latitude, and brook charr occurrences correctly classified 93% of Arctic charr historical occurrences in Canada. We estimate that in a high-carbon scenario, where degree-days are expected to increase by 50 to 100%, Arctic charr range is projected to decrease by 18% in Canada by 2051–2080 and decrease even further by 3% with the presence of brook charr. The Canadian high Arctic may provide refuge for Arctic charr, likely maintaining temperatures optimal for species persistence. Regardless, management that considers the climate stresses on Arctic charr populations will be important to preserve this highly valued resource that is pivotal for food security and traditional ways of life for northerners.

Contrasting temperature and light sensitivities of spring leaf phenology between understory shrubs and canopy trees: Implications for phenological escape

Spring leaf phenology influences plant fitness and is highly sensitive to environmental changes. The spring phenological escape hypothesis posits that deciduous understory plants generally leaf out earlier than canopy trees to access a period of high light before the canopy closes. However, plants in different forest layers may respond differently to climate warming, which could lead to phenological mismatch between the understory and canopy species. Therefore, exploring the phenological sensitivities of plants from different forest layers is crucial for anticipating the effects of climate-driven phenological shifts. However, these types of studies are still scarce. Here, we conducted a twig experiment in climate chambers for eight tree species and seven shrub species growing in subtropical deciduous forests in the Shennongjia Mountains, central China. Specifically, we set up three treatments (control, warming, and shading) for five weeks to test the responses of the timing of bud burst and leaf unfolding, and the duration of bud development to different temperatures and light intensities. For shrubs, bud burst and leaf unfolding occurred earlier and the duration of bud development was shorter than these of trees. For both shrubs and trees, warming significantly advanced the timing of leaf unfolding and shortened the duration of bud development. Shading significantly delayed the timing of bud burst for both shrubs and trees. Shading also delayed the timing of leaf unfolding and lengthened the duration of bud development for trees, but did not significantly influence the two phenological metrics for shrubs. Tree phenology, as measured by all three metrics, was more sensitive to temperature than was shrub phenology. The timing of bud burst of shrubs was slightly more sensitive to light than that of trees. Our results indicate that shrubs leaf out earlier than trees in the same forest, which allows understory species to take advantage of the high-light resources before canopy closure. However, in our study, trees were more responsive to warming temperatures, suggesting that spring warming could advance canopy closure relative to shrub leaf phenology, potentially resulting in phenological mismatch between understory shrubs and canopy trees.

Observed Retrogressive Thaw Slump Evolution in the Qilian Mountains

Climate warming can lead to permafrost degradation, potentially resulting in slope failures such as retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs). The formation of and changes in RTSs could exacerbate the degradation of permafrost and the environment in general. The mechanisms of RTS progression and the potential consequences on the analogous freeze–thaw cycle are not well understood, owing partly to necessitating field work under harsh conditions and with high costs. Here, we used multi-source remote sensing and field surveys to quantify the changes in an RTS on Eboling Mountain in the Qilian Mountain Range in west-central China. Based on optical remote sensing and SBAS-InSAR measurements, we analyzed the RTS evolution and the underlying drivers, combined with meteorological observations. The RTS expanded from 56 m2 in 2015 to 4294 m2 in 2022, growing at a rate of 1300 m2/a to its maximum in 2018 and then decreasing. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a dominant role in the evolution of the RTS, and the extreme weather in 2016 may also be a primary contributor to the accelerated growth, with an average deformation of −8.3 mm during the thawing period, which decreased slope stability. The RTS evolved more actively during the thawing and early freezing process, with earthquakes having potentially contributed further to RTS evolution. We anticipate that the rate of RTS evolution is likely to increase in the coming years.

Fe-rich X-ray amorphous material records past climate and persistence of water on Mars

X-ray amorphous material comprises 15-73 wt.% of sedimentary rocks and eolian sediments in Gale crater. This material is variably siliceous and iron rich but aluminum poor. The presence of volatiles is consistent with the existence of incipient weathering products. To better understand the implications of this material for past aqueous conditions on Mars, here we investigate X-ray amorphous material formation and longevity within terrestrial iron rich soils with varying ages and environmental conditions using bulk and selective dissolution methods, X-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Results indicate that in situ aqueous alteration is required to concentrate iron into clay-size fraction material. Cooler climates promote the formation and persistence of X-ray amorphous material whereas warmer climates promote the formation of crystalline secondary phases. Iron rich X-ray amorphous material formation and persistence on Mars are therefore consistent with past cool and relatively wet environments followed by long-term cold and dry conditions.

Radon Dynamics in Granite and Calcareous Soils: Long-Term Experiments in a Semi-Arid Context

Radon in soil poses a significant health risk when it accumulates inside dwellings. The estimation of radon potential is a difficult task due to the complex dynamics of radon within soil and its relations with the weather. This research focuses on the variability of radon activity, driven by environmental changes, assessed in two loam soils (loamy sand–granite soil and silty clay loam-calcareous soil) with different radium contents. We conducted an experiment with teow soil columns in a semi-controlled outdoor laboratory, in a warm semi-arid climate. We also examined the consequences of abundant rainfall on radon activity through artificial soil water content (SWC) experiment conditions. Statistical analyses reveal that SWC is the most significant parameter influencing radon activity in these experiments. Radon is proportional to SWC and inversely proportional to temperature, evapotranspiration, and pressure in both soils, while wind is negatively related only in the loamy sand soil. Based on our findings, we modelled radon potential considering different soils and climatic contexts. SWC influences radon potential by changing radon emanation, activity, and permeability, depending on the local soil texture and radium concentration.

Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea

Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species’ ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes.

Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations.

The impact of anthropogenic global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency remains a challenging issue, partly due to a relatively short period of reliable observational TC records and inconsistencies in climate model simulations. Using TC detection from 20 CMIP6 historical simulations, we show that the majority (75%) of these models show a decrease in global-scale TC frequency from 1850 to 2014. We demonstrated that this result is largely explained by weakened mid-tropospheric upward motion in CMIP6 models over the Pacific and Atlantic main development regions. The reduced upward motion is due to a zonal circulation adjustment and shifts in Intertropical Convergence Zone in response to global warming. In the South Indian Ocean, reduced TC frequency is mainly due to the decreased survival rate of TC seeds because of an increased saturation deficit in a warming climate. Our analysis highlights global warming's potential impact on the historical decrease in global TC frequency.

Reduced actual vapor pressure exerts a significant influence on maize yield through vapor pressure deficit amid climate warming.

Understanding the impact of climate warming on crop yield and its associated mechanisms is paramount for ensuring food security. Here, we conduct a thorough analysis of the impact of vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on maize yield, leveraging a rich dataset comprising temporal and spatial observations spanning 40 years across 31 maize-growing locations in Northeast and North China. Our investigation extends to the influencing meteorological factors that drive changes in VPD during the maize growing phase. Regression analysis reveals a linear negative relationship between VPD and maize yield, demonstrating diverse spatiotemporal characteristics. Spatially, maize yield exhibits higher sensitivity to VPD in Northeast China (NEC), despite the higher VPD levels in North China Plain (NCP). The opposite patterns reveal that high VPD not invariably lead to detrimental yield impacts. Temporal analysis sheds light on an upward trend in VPD, with values of 0.05 and 0.02 kPa/10yr, accompanied by significant abrupt changes around 1996 in NEC and 2006 in NCP, respectively. These temporal shifts contribute to the heightened sensitivity of maize yield in both regions. Importantly, we emphasize the need to pay closer attention to the substantial the impact of actual vapor pressure on abrupt VPD changes during the maize growing phase, particularly in the context of ongoing climate warming.

Individual grain mass of inbred rice cultivars does not benefit from elevated [CO2]

Climate warming has led to a reduction of global crop yields. Elevated atmospheric [CO2] is believed to promote crop production by increasing photosynthesis, and thus partly offset the yield losses due to climate warming. However, photosynthetic acclimation may occur when the plant is exposed to long-term high [CO2] conditions, suggesting that elevated [CO2] (e[CO2]) might not bring benefits for cereal crops as the growing season proceeds. To assess the effect of long-term e[CO2] on rice yield, particularly on individual grain mass determined post-heading, we synthesized existing data from FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiments across four locations in Japan and China. We also conducted a five-year field experiment with different [CO2] treatments using OTC (open-top chamber) facility. A novel experiment of pot replacement at heading was conducted in 2018 to evaluate the effect of post-heading e[CO2] on individual grain mass of rice. Meanwhile, we measured net photosynthetic rates under ambient [CO2] (a[CO2]) and e[CO2] (ambient + 200 μmol mol−1) at different developmental stages to identify the occurrence of photosynthetic acclimation. We show that FACE condition did not increase individual grain mass across thirty-six inbred rice cultivars at various rates of nitrogen application, and that the replacement of potted plants either from a[CO2] to e[CO2] or from e[CO2] to a[CO2] did not impact the individual grain mass. The yield benefit from e[CO2] was primarily attributed to an increase in the spikelet density determined pre-heading. We conclude that the individual grain mass of inbred rice does not benefit from e[CO2], which is most likely attributed to a loss of the advantage in CO2 gain induced by photosynthetic acclimation. Our findings suggest the necessity for selective breeding strategies to make better use of post-heading e[CO2] and for crop modelers to incorporate updated knowledge into models in the context of elevated [CO2].

Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change.

Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Response of aspen to a warming climate along a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains, USA

The 21st century's warming climate threatens aspen (Populus tremuloides) growth in the southern Rocky Mountains (western US), endangering ecosystem diversity, functionality, and associated services. This study linked aspen growth with temperature and moisture variations, assessing how warmer climates and seasonal changes affect ring widths. Sampling 211 aspen trees from 12 latitudinally distributed sites, we compiled three regional aspen chronologies spanning 1913 to 2018. We investigated climate-growth associations using correlation and modeling (climwin) techniques. Results revealed that aspen at the trailing southern edge of the Rocky Mountains are vulnerable to drought, where elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation emerge as primary factors contributing to their reduced growth. In contrast, aspens in the northern region of the gradient exhibited a positive growth response to rising temperatures, potentially linked to the alleviation of growth-limiting cold temperatures. However, while pre-2000s droughts increased growth, recent droughts elicited growth reductions in the North; suggesting that with continued warming, northern populations will increasingly face sensitivity to droughts akin to their southern counterparts. These findings emphasize the increased vulnerability of southern Rocky Mountain aspen populations to climate change-induced growth constraints, particularly in the anticipated warmer and drier conditions of the 21st century. This study is crucial to understanding aspen responses to climate fluctuations in the region.

Sources of seasonal water supply forecast uncertainty during snow drought in the Sierra Nevada

AbstractUncertainty attribution in water supply forecasting is crucial to improve forecast skill and increase confidence in seasonal water management planning. We develop a framework to quantify fractional forecast uncertainty and partition it between (1) snowpack quantification methods, (2) variability in post‐forecast precipitation, and (3) runoff model errors. We demonstrate the uncertainty framework with statistical runoff models in the upper Tuolumne and Merced River basins (California, USA) using snow observations at two endmember spatial resolutions: a simple snow pillow index and full‐catchment snow water equivalent (SWE) maps at 50 m resolution from the Airborne Snow Observatories. Bayesian forecast simulations demonstrate a nonlinear decrease in the skill of statistical water supply forecasts during warm snow droughts, when a low fraction of winter precipitation remains as SWE. Forecast skill similarly decreases during dry snow droughts, when winter precipitation is low. During a shift away from snow‐dominance, the uncertainty of forecasts using snow pillow data increases about 1.9 times faster than analogous forecasts using full‐catchment SWE maps in the study area. Replacing the snow pillow index with full‐catchment SWE data reduces statistical forecast uncertainty by 39% on average across all tested climate conditions. Attributing water supply forecast uncertainty to reducible error sources reveals opportunities to improve forecast reliability in a warmer future climate.

Changes to tropical cyclone trajectories in Southeast Asia under a warming climate

The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs.

Principal role of fungi in soil carbon stabilization during early pedogenesis in the high Arctic

Climate warming is causing widespread deglaciation and pioneer soil formation over glacial deposits. Melting glaciers expose rocky terrain and glacial till sediment that is relatively low in biomass, oligotrophic, and depleted in nutrients. Following initial colonization by microorganisms, glacial till sediments accumulate organic carbon and nutrients over time. However, the mechanisms driving soil nutrient stabilization during early pedogenesis after glacial retreat remain unclear. Here, we traced amino acid uptake by microorganisms in recently deglaciated high-Arctic soils and show that fungi play a critical role in the initial stabilization of the assimilated carbon. Pioneer basidiomycete yeasts were among the predominant taxa responsible for carbon assimilation, which were associated with overall high amino acid use efficiency and reduced respiration. In intermediate- and late-stage soils, lichenized ascomycete fungi were prevalent, but bacteria increasingly dominated amino acid assimilation, with substantially decreased fungal:bacterial amino acid assimilation ratios and increased respiration. Together, these findings demonstrate that fungi are important drivers of pedogenesis in high-Arctic ecosystems that are currently subject to widespread deglaciation from global warming.