Warm Pool Area Research Articles

Predicting the interannual variability of the subtropical high over the western Pacific Ocean based on the improved information diffusion model

Because of its special location and structure, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) influences greatly the climate and weather in East Asia, especially the summer precipitation. To clarify how the interannual variability (IAV) of the WPSH is related to anomalies in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation, time series of the intensity index of the WPSH are subjected to wavelet analysis, showing IAV in the index. Characteristic indexes are defined for three key sea areas and the equatorial-latitude westerly region. After a continuous wavelet transform, the oscillation period of them is similar to that of the WPSH. The cross-wavelet transform of the four regional and two WPSH indexes is used to obtain the corresponding time-delay correlation. Regarding the potential correlation, WPSH weakening leads to strengthening of the westerly wind and then affects the rise of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the same time, warm water moves eastward. This gradually increases the SST in the equatorial central Pacific and warm pool area and then strengthens the WPSH under the action of the Hadley circulation. From the above analysis, a model for predicting the IAV of the WPSH intensity index is established based on the information diffusion model improved by a genetic algorithm. An experiment is conducted to predict the IAV of the WPSH intensity index, and the results show that the prediction model is accurate in predicting the IAV trend, with good prediction for 84 months. The mean absolute percentage error is 14.44% and the correlation coefficient is 0.8507. Also, the normal and abnormal years of the WPSH are used as different starting points for different prediction experiments. However, the different starting points have little influence on the predictions, showing the stability of the model. Studying the IAV of the WPSH provides a strong theoretical and scientific basis for predicting its abnormal interannual behavior and offers the prospect of socially important disaster prevention and mitigation.

Characterizing the Sound-Scattering Layer and Its Environmental Drivers in the North Equatorial Current of the Central and Western Pacific Ocean

Acoustic technology is an essential tool for detecting marine biological resources and has been widely used in sound-scattering layer (SSL) research. The North Equatorial Current (NEC) warm pool region of the Central and Western Pacific Ocean has a vast distribution of micronekton and zooplankton; analyzing the SSL characteristics in this region is vital for monitoring the marine environment and studying the marine ecosystem. In this study, we statistically analyzed the spatiotemporal factors of 10–200 m SSL in the NEC of the Central and Western Pacific Ocean using acoustic survey data collected by the “Songhang” research vessel (RV) in 2022, and the influence of environmental factors on the scattering layer distribution was analyzed using the Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The results showed that the SSL in the warm pool area of the NEC is distributed in shallow waters above 100 m. The primary scatterers are micronekton and zooplankton, and this SSL had diel vertical migration behavior. By comparing Akaike’s Information Criterion of different GAMs, the model consisting of six factors, namely, temperature, current velocity, turbidity, solar altitude angle, longitude, and latitude, was remarkable. Each model’s factor effects primarily influence the contribution of the volume-backscatter strength (Sv). The cumulative deviation explanation rate of the Sv was 67.2%, among which the highest explanation rate of solar altitude angle variance was 35.4%, the most critical environmental factor. The results of this study can provide a reference for long-term studies on ecological changes and their effects on micronekton and zooplankton distribution.

Regional Characteristics of Summer Precipitation Anomalies in the Northeastern Maritime Continent

Based on the monthly mean reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) (1979–2020), the regional characteristics of precipitation in the warm pool side of the Maritime Continent (MC) and the relationships between different precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulations are studied. The results show that there are significant correlations as well as differences between the precipitation in the east of the Philippines (area A) and that in the Pacific Ocean near the Northern Mariana Islands (area B). Precipitation in area A is closely related to the eastern Pacific ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) and EAP/PJ (East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan) teleconnection pattern, while precipitation in area B is linked to the Indian Ocean basin-wide and the South China Sea summer monsoon. When the precipitation anomaly in area A is positive, the East Asian summer monsoon is weak. A cyclone appears to the northwest of area A at 850 hPa with convergence airflow. After filtering out the effects of precipitation in area B, the cyclone retreats to the west, and an anticyclone appears to the southeast of area A. When the precipitation is above normal in area B, the circulation and water vapor transportation are similar to that in area A but more to the east. The updraft and downdrafts to both north and south sides of area B form two closed meridional vertical circulations. When the influence of area A is moved out, the circulation center in the warm pool area moves eastward. This research contributes to a better understanding of the regional characteristics of the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon.

Causes and processes of two opposite climatic years in the tropical Atlantic warm pools

A numerical investigation of the interannual Southwestern and Equatorial Atlantic warm pools (WPs) (SST>28 °C) was conducted for the 2000–2014 period, focusing on two major opposite events over the past 39 years (1982–2020): an intense warming event in 2010 (sizeable warm pool) and a moderate-to-low event in 2012 (small warm pool). Some modes of climate variability (remote and local) were confronted with the WP area. Significant remote connections were found for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). Whereas, the Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) and Tropical Southern Atlantic (TSA) indices were locally related to anomalies over the WP area. On the months that preceded the 2010 WP event, an anomalous atmospheric circulation in the tropical North Atlantic basin occurred (extremely negative NAO and positive AMM), causing a major weakening of winds, shallower mixed layer, and higher SST. Consequently, the WP boundaries, which usually developed southward along the equator in the austral fall, were pushed northward as warm waters spread out into the north tropical basin. Locally, both basins (i.e., tropical north and south) were warmer than climatologically expected (positive TNA and TSA), leading to a significant increase in the WP area recorded in this period. On the other hand, during the months that preceded the 2012 WP, the trade winds were faster (positive NAO and positive AMM), leading to a condition close to the climatologically expected. The approximation of the center of the subtropical high in the southern ocean basin practically extinguished the portion of warm waters that usually spreads southwest along the basin. While the TNA was weakly positive, the TSA presented negative anomalies that ensured a significant reduction in the WP area in the southern basin during this time. Numerical results from the 2000–2014 run were contrasted with PIRATA buoys and satellite data to assess the model's performance. Investigations of the mixed layer temperature terms disclosed the predominance of the atmosphere over the oceanic terms during the warm pool area increase/decrease, showing a significantly different composition within the oceanic terms. The persistence of the same sign anomalies during the three months preceding the WP's seasonal development appeared to be a pivotal factor in understanding how different the events in 2010 and 2012 were. Net heat flux anomalies, mainly controlled by anomalous wind patterns, were primarily responsible for the extreme events observed in 2010 and 2012.

Impacts of the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean Warm Pools on Wildfires in Yunnan, Southwest China: Spatial Patterns With Interannual and Intraannual Variations

AbstractThe Indo‐Pacific warm pool affects the regional climatic conditions in Southeast Asia mediated by the Western Pacific (WP) and Indian Ocean (IO) monsoons, which are recognized as critical regulators of wildfires in this region. Our study explored the spatiotemporal effects of the warm pools on wildfire records in Yunnan, Southwest China. We showed the interannual records had a negative relationship with the simultaneous WP warm pool area index. The Ailao Mountains in the central Yunnan could be a geographical barrier that blocked the influences of the WP warm pool from the east side. For the intraannual changes, the wildfire number variations had a stronger connection to the IO warm pool dynamics than the WP. Our study provided the novel evidence on the teleconnection between the Indo‐Pacific warm pool dynamics and regional environmental processes in Yunnan, also indicating this area as a part of the transitional zone between the two warm pools.

Distinct influential mechanisms of the warm pool Madden–Julian Oscillation on persistent extreme cold events in Northeast China

This study investigates whether and how the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) influences persistent extreme cold events (PECEs), a major type of natural disaster in boreal winter, over Northeast China. Significantly increased occurrence probabilities of PECEs over Northeast China are observed in phases 3 and 5 of the MJO, when MJO-related convection is located over the eastern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, respectively. Using the temperature tendency equation, it is found that the physical processes resulting in the cooling effects required for the occurrence of PECEs are distinct in the two phases of the MJO when MJO-related convection is consistently located over the warm pool area. The PECEs in phase 3 of the MJO mainly occur as a result of adiabatic cooling associated with ascending motion of the low-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia. The cooling effect associated with phase 5 is stronger and longer than that in phase 3. The PECEs associated with phase 5 of the MJO are linked with the northwesterly cold advection of a cyclonic anomaly, which is part of the subtropical Rossby wave train induced by MJO-related convection in the tropical western Pacific.摘要 本文利用高分辨率气温数据和热带季节内振荡 (MJO) 实时指数, 研究了1979–2015年冬季MJO活动对中国东北持续性极端低温事件 (PECE) 的影响特征和机理.结果表明:当MJO对流分别位于暖池地区的东印度洋 (位相3) 和西太平洋 (位相5) 时, 中国东北PECE的发生频率显著增加.利用温度方程诊断分析发现MJO两个位相所导致的冷却过程不同: 当 MJO处于位相3时, 中国东北地区为低压异常, 上升运动引起绝热冷却作用; 而位相5所形成的气旋性环流为中国东北地区带来西北风冷平流, 降温过程更强且持续更长时间.

Emergent Constraints on Future Expansion of the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool

AbstractThe latest climate models realistically simulate the present‐day climate Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) area, but there is considerable inter‐model spread in future projections. Here we show a strong negative relationship between the present‐day of IPWP area and its future change. When using this “emergent relationship” to constrain future IPWP area change, inter‐model spread of future projections is reduced by more than half compared to raw projections. This emergent constraint is found to be due to the negatively skewed distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indo‐Pacific Ocean as well as a negative SST‐shortwave radiation feedback in the western Pacific, which leads to a large IPWP expansion in climate models having a small IPWP area in the present‐day climate. This result indicates that a more accurate simulation of the IPWP area in the present‐day climate is crucial to reliable future projections of the tropical climate.

Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley: Comparison of Machine Learning and Climate Model Predictions

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YRV), which are among the most densely populated regions in China, are subject to frequent flooding. In this study, the predictor importance analysis model was used to sort and select predictors, and five methods (multiple linear regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), backpropagation neural network (BPNN), and convolutional neural network (CNN)) were used to predict the interannual variation of summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the YRV. Predictions from eight climate models were used for comparison. Of the five tested methods, RF demonstrated the best predictive skill. Starting the RF prediction in December, when its prediction skill was highest, the 70-year correlation coefficient from cross validation of average predictions was 0.473. Using the same five predictors in December 2019, the RF model successfully predicted the YRV wet anomaly in summer 2020, although it had weaker amplitude. It was found that the enhanced warm pool area in the Indian Ocean was the most important causal factor. The BPNN and CNN methods demonstrated the poorest performance. The RF, DT, and climate models all showed higher prediction skills when the predictions start in winter than in early spring, and the RF, DT, and MLR methods all showed better prediction skills than the numerical climate models. Lack of training data was a factor that limited the performance of the machine learning methods. Future studies should use deep learning methods to take full advantage of the potential of ocean, land, sea ice, and other factors for more accurate climate predictions.

Variation of Hourly Extreme Precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China, from the Observation Record

Extreme hourly precipitation is amongst the most prominent driving factors of flash floods and geological disasters. Based on the hourly precipitation data of 35 stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR) from 1998 to 2020, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of hourly extreme precipitation indexes. The selected indicators included the frequency, intensity, period, annual maximum, trend of hourly heavy precipitation (20–50 mm/h) and hourly extreme heavy precipitation (≥50 mm/h) in the TGRR. Closely related climatic factors such as the Western Pacific Subtropical High Intensity (WPSHI) were also discussed. The results showed that in 2010–2020, the cumulative frequency of heavy precipitation magnitude between 25 and 40 mm/h slightly increased, while the corresponding frequency for magnitudes ≥50 mm/h decreased. In summer, the frequency of both heavy and extreme heavy precipitation increased in June and decreased in August, indicating a shift of extreme events to an earlier time in the flood season. The cumulative frequency of heavy precipitation in July had a period of about 7a, and that of extreme heavy precipitation had a period of 3a. The annual average intensity of heavy precipitation and extreme heavy precipitation in the TGRR was 28.9 mm/h and 61.4 mm/h per station, respectively, and both fluctuated and insignificantly decreased from 1998 to 2020. The annual maximum hourly precipitation center in the TGRR moved downstream from west to northeast. The frequency of heavy precipitation was relatively small along the main stream of the river valley. Both the frequency and total amount of heavy precipitation in southeast of the TGRR were significantly higher than those in other regions. Heavy precipitation in the majority of stations with high elevation (higher than 500 m) showed a decreasing trend. The cumulative frequency of precipitation with an intensity of 20–50 mm/h was closely correlated with the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) Index in February and the WPSHI Index in January, and especially, the abnormal large annual frequency (top 20%) showed strong correlation with the two indexes, implying highly predictable factors for extreme events. The frequency of precipitation intensity above 50 mm/h was correlated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) Area Index in January and the WPWP Intensity Index in November of last year. The research results provide a strong and refined factual basis for the assessment and prediction of extreme precipitation, and for disaster prevention and mitigation, in the TGRR.

The impact of coupled data assimilation on Madden-Julian Oscillation predictability initialized from coupled satellite-era reanalysis

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of coupled initialization on the extended-range prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A set of reforecasts using combinations of the oceanic and atmospheric initial conditions produced with coupled and uncoupled data assimilation (DA) are conducted to evaluate the impact of coupling in the different domains, from the perspective of MJO forecasts. The coupled initial conditions are provided by CERA-SAT pilot coupled reanalysis for the satellite era recently produced by ECMWF. We focus on the prediction skill of the MJO using the Real-time Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) MJO index in a series of re-forecasts. The impact of atmospheric initial conditions produced by coupled DA shows slight benefit for the MJO prediction. However, compared with the operational ocean reanalysis, the ocean initial conditions created by CERA-SAT degrade the MJO prediction skill during the first 2-3 weeks of the re-forecast by 1.5% to 5.8%. A moist static energy budget analysis revealed that the underestimation of 0.2 K sea surface temperature, 1.4 W m-2 top of atmosphere downward longwave radiation, and 3.8 W m-2 latent heat flux over the Maritime Continent lead to small but statistically significant degradation of the MJO forecast skill. The results demonstrate that the MJO is sensitive to ocean initial conditions, and illustrate the value of the extended range MJO prediction for evaluating the quality of coupled data assimilation, and suggest that future efforts on coupled data assimilation pay special attention to the balance of air-sea interaction processes over the warm pool area, in terms of modeling, observational needs and system.

Vertical Distribution of Temperature in Transitional Season II and West Monsoon in Western Pacific

Western Pacific is the water mass intersection from both the Northern Pacific and Southern Pacific ocean. The Western Pacific ocean is warm pool area which formed by several warm surface currents. As a warm pool area and also the water mass intersection, western Pacific ocean becomes an interesting study area. The object of this study is to describe the temperature vertical distribution by mooring buoy and temporally in transitional season II (September – November 2014) and west monsoon (December 2014 – February 2015) in Western Pacific. Vertical temperature and wind speed data that was used in this study was recorded by INA-TRITON mooring instrument and obtained from Laboratory of Marine Survey, BPPT. Supporting data of this study was wind vector data from ECMWF to observe the relation between temperature distribution and monsoon. The quantitative approach was used in this study by processing temperature and wind data from INA-TRITON and interpreted graphically. In the area of study, it was found that in transitional season II the range of sea surface temperature to 500-meter depth was about 8.29 – 29.90 °C while in west monsoon was 8.12 - 29.45 °C. According to the research result, the sea SST of western Pacific ocean was related to monsoonal change with SST and wind speed correlation coefficient was 0.78. While the deep layer temperature was affected by water mass flow which passes through the western Pacific Ocean.

Inter‐model comparison of subseasonal tropical variability in aquaplanet experiments: Effect of a warm pool

AbstractThis study compares the simulation of subseasonal tropical variability by a set of six state‐of‐the‐art AGCMs in two experiments in aquaplanet configuration: a zonally symmetric experiment, and an experiment with a warm pool centered on the equator. In all six models, the presence of the warm pool generates zonal asymmetries in the simulated mean states in the form of a “Gill‐type” response, made more complex by feedbacks between moisture, convective heating and circulation. Noticeable differences appear from one model to another. Only half the models simulate mean low‐level equatorial westerlies over the warm pool area. The presence of the warm pool can also favor the development of large‐scale variability consistent with observed Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) characteristics, but this happens only in half the models. Our results do not support the idea that the presence of the warm pool and/or of mean low‐level equatorial westerlies are sufficient conditions for MJO‐like variability to arise in the models. Comparing spectral characteristics of the simulated Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEWs) in the aquaplanet experiments and the corresponding coupled atmosphere‐ocean (i.e., CMIP) and atmosphere‐only (i.e., AMIP) simulations, we also show that there is more consistency for a given model across its configurations, than for a given configuration across the six models. Overall, our results confirm that the simulation of subseasonal variability by given model is significantly influenced by the parameterization of subgrid physical processes (most‐likely cloud processes), both directly and through modulation of the mean state.

Early interglacial carbonate-dilution events in the South China Sea: Implications for strengthened typhoon activities over subtropical East Asia

A compilation of many late Quaternary marine sediment records from the northern South China Sea (SCS) continental slope confirms 15–50% reductions in sedimentary calcium carbonate concentrations between 11.0 and 8.5 ka BP in the early Holocene. This low carbonate% event occurred at a time when the regional sea level rose from −50 m to −10 m, which drowned large areas of continental shelves especially those near and within the Taiwan Strait. This event is associated with a significant increase in bulk sedimentation rates on the upper continental slope and the relative abundance of fine-grained detritus. Sediment provenance analyses suggest a dominant terrigenous input from Taiwan and a minor contribution from Luzon during the low carbonate% event, similar to the background terrigenous deposition in other periods of the Holocene. Two comparable low carbonate% events, respectively from the beginning of marine isotope stages 5.5 and 7.3, have also been recognized, pointing to similar causal factors. While carbonate dissolution and carbonate accumulation rate should not have been responsible, increased terrigenous input and dilution is considered as the main cause for the recurrent low carbonate% events in early interglacials. We further hypothesize that, during early interglacials, fluvial sediment discharge from Taiwan and Luzon intensified due to stronger typhoon activities, and massive fine-grained sediments from these two end members may have been transported to the northern SCS continental slope via surface and deep ocean currents. The conjecture of strengthened typhoon activities over East Asia during the early Holocene is supported by high ocean heat contents in the West Pacific Warm Pool area with the prevailing La Niña-like conditions.

Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Winter Rainfall in Taiwan

Abstract This study discusses major impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the winter (November–April) rainfall in Taiwan. The results show that Taiwan has more rainfall in MJO phases 3 and 4 (MJO convectively active phase in the Indian Ocean and the western part of the Maritime Continent), and less rainfall in phases 7 and 8 (the western Pacific warm pool area). Mechanisms associated with the MJO are suggested as follows. 1) The tropics to midlatitude wave train: when the MJO moves to the middle Indian Ocean, a Matsuno–Gill-type pattern is induced. The feature of this tropical atmospheric response to the MJO diabatic heating is a pair of upper-level anomalous anticyclones symmetric about the equator to the west of the heating. The northern anomalous anticyclone over the Arabian Sea and northern India induces a northeastward-propagating wave train to the midlatitudes. The wave pattern consists of a cyclonic anomaly centered at East Asia that enhances the winter rainfall in Taiwan. 2) Increase of moisture supply from the South China Sea: when the MJO convection approaches Sumatra and Java of the Maritime Continent, the eastward penetration of equatorial convection enhances a low-level southerly flow that transports the moisture northward to Taiwan and southern China. As a consequence, with the increase of moisture supply from the south, more winter monsoon rainfall is observed in Taiwan.

Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection.

Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations and a Simple Model of an Idealized Walker Cell

Abstract An idealized Walker cell with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and prescribed radiative cooling is studied using both a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM) and a simple conceptual model. In the CRM, for the same SST distribution, the width of the warm pool (area of strong precipitation) varies systematically with the magnitude of the radiative cooling, narrowing as radiative cooling is increased. The simple model is constructed to interpret these behaviors. Key aspects of the simple model include a surface wind determined from the boundary layer momentum budget, which in turn sets evaporation assuming a spatially uniform surface relative humidity, prescribed gross moist and dry stratification as a function of column water vapor and precipitation, and a gustiness enhancement on evaporation in areas of precipitation. It is found that the gustiness enhancement, likely due to mesoscale systems, creates a feedback that narrows the warm pool. This process has not been included in previous formulations of the simple model and its role is emphasized here.

The observed variation in cloud‐induced longwave radiation in response to sea surface temperature over the Pacific warm pool from MTSAT‐1R imagery

This study investigated variations in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in response to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific warm pool area (20°N–20°S, 130°E–170°W). OLR values were obtained from recent (January 2008–June 2010) geostationary window channel imagery at hourly resolution, which resolves processes associated with tropical convective clouds. We used linear regression analysis with the domain‐averaged OLR and SST anomalies (i.e., ΔOLR, ΔSST; deviations from their 90‐day moving averages). Results show that the regression slope appears to be significant only with SST least‐affected by cloud radiative forcing, for which SST needs to be obtained as daily average over cloud‐free regions (ΔSSTclear). The estimated value of ΔOLR/ΔSSTclear is 15.72 W m−2 K−1, indicating the presence of strong outgoing longwave radiation in response to surface warming. This atmospheric cooling effect is found to be primarily associated with reduced areal coverage of clouds (−14.4% K−1).

Variation of Air-Sea Heat Fluxes over the Western Pacific Warm Pool Area and Its Relationship with the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

AbstractBased on oceanic and atmospheric parameters retrieved by satellite remote sensing using a neural network method, air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pacific warm pool area were calculated with the advanced the advanced Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE3.0) bulk algorithm method. Then, the average annual and interannual characteristics of these fluxes were analyzed. The relationship between the fluxes and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset is highlighted. The results indicate that these fluxes have clear temporal and spatial characteristics. The sensible heat flux is at its maximum in the Kuroshio area, while the latent heat flux is at its maximum in the North Equatorial Current and Kuroshio area. The distribution of average annual air-sea heat fluxes shows that both sensible and latent heat fluxes are maximized in winter and minimized in summer. The air-sea heat fluxes have obvious interannual variations. Correlation analysis indicates a close lag-correlation bet...

Variability of sea surface temperature and warm pool area in the South China Sea and its relationship to the western Pacific warm pool

Sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from satellite and in situ measurements are used to study the thermal variability in the South China Sea (SCS). Time–frequency–energy distributions, periods of variability, and trends are computed by the Hilbert–Huang transform method. The SST trend from 1982 to 2005 is 0.276°C per decade in the SCS which is higher than 0.144°C per decade in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The warm pool (SST ≥ 28°C) area in the SCS has increased by 0.20 × 106 km2 per decade. The SST and area of the warm pool in the SCS are strongly correlated, respectively, with the SST and area of the WPWP with a time lag of 1 month, suggestive of a strong connection between these two warm pools. Once the annual cycle is eliminated, decadal oscillations dominate the variability of SST and warm pool area in the SCS.

북서태평양의 위도별 중형동물플랑크톤의 분포 특성

We investigated latitudinal changes in mesozooplankton community structure during a cruise between October 16 and November 30 of 2007 from four distinctive regions in the northwestern Pacific Ocean: Warm pool area (longitude <TEX>$135^{\circ}$</TEX> line), Philippine EEZ (PEEZ), Japan EEZ (JEEZ), and East China Sea (ECS). Major taxa of numerical importance were Clausocalanidae (Clausocalanus spp.), Oncaeidae (Oncaea spp.), and Oithonidae (Oithona spp.) in oligotrophic regions, however Paracalanidae (Paracalanus spp.) was the most abundant group in the ECS. Mesozooplankton size group of <1 mm dominated in PEEZ and WP (48% and 56%, respectively), but mesozooplankton (>1 mm) were of importance in the JEEZ and ECS (34% and 38%, respectively). Mesozooplankton biomass and abundance were high in the JEEZ and ECS, and low in the oligotrophic WP and PEEZ waters, with positive relationship with both total Chl-a and heterotrophic protist biomass. Latitudinal change in mesozooplankton community structure was related with water temperature, with copepods such as Lucicutia spp. and Pleuromamma spp. being present only in warm waters. The geographical expansion of mesozooplankton with a preference for warmer waters could potentially be useful as an indicator for detecting ocean warming.