Results Of Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Shipping network vulnerability assessment integrated with geographical locations

In maritime transport, ports undertake the routes and markets of surrounding ports after they fail during emergencies. The transfer and replacement of routes are subject to port-hinterland relationships, spatial agglomeration, and geopolitical environments, which are realistic expressions of port location from the perspectives of economy, geography, and geopolitics. However, the irreplaceability of ports influenced by geographic location has been ignored in previous evaluations of network vulnerability, which has exaggerated the network vulnerability. To address the aforementioned problems, an irreplaceability model based on the port’s geographical location was constructed. This model systematically simulates the changing trend of shipping network vulnerability and reveals the damage effect of the shipping network under the influence of emergencies to bring the vulnerability assessment results of shipping networks closer to reality.

Research on Geological Disaster Risk Assessment Method Based on GIS in Changji City, Xinjiang

This study takes the risk assessment of geological disasters in Changji City as the research object. By reviewing the detailed investigation report and risk survey documents of 1:50000 geological disasters in Changji City, along with the annual verification, investigation, and exploration results of major hidden danger points, we collected and organized the necessary data for the assessment and integrated multidisciplinary knowledge such as geology, GIS technology, and statistics. The study aims to identify the inducing factors, development characteristics, and distribution law of geological disasters in the area, thereby determining the risk assessment factors. To ascertain the weight of these factors, we employed an evidence weight model and a machine learning method. The vulnerability assessment, incorporating existing basic data and vulnerability factors such as population density, building density, and road density, was conducted using fuzzy mathematics for Changji City. Finally, the risk assessment used the ArcGIS analysis function to calculate the risk and vulnerability assessment results. Through ArcGIS, we superimposed the risk grade and vulnerability grade of geological disasters on a grid, ultimately obtaining the risk assessment results for the study area.

A critical application of different methods for the vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers in Zhengzhou City.

Groundwater vulnerability can partially reflect the possibility of groundwater contamination, which is crucial for ensuring human health and a good ecological environment. The current study seeks to assess the groundwater vulnerability of Zhengzhou City by adopting an amended version of the traditional DRASTIC model, i.e., the DRASTICL model, which incorporates land use type indicators. More specifically, the AHP-DRASTICL, entropy-DRASTICL, and AE-DRASTICL models were established by optimizing weights using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method. The evaluation results for these five models were divided into five levels: very low, low, medium, high, and very high. Using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, the nitrate concentration was used to verify the groundwater vulnerability assessment results. The AE-DRASTICL model was found to perform the best, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.78. However, the AHP and entropy weight method effectively improved the accuracy of vulnerability assessment results, making it more suitable for the study area. This study provides important insights to inform the design of strategies to protect groundwater in Zhengzhou.

Dynamic Risk Assessment of Landslide Hazard for Large-Scale Photovoltaic Power Plants under Extreme Rainfall Conditions

Large-scale photovoltaic power plants located in highland mountainous areas are vulnerable to landslides due to extreme rainfall, posing a significant threat to the normal operation of photovoltaic power plants. However, limited research has been conducted on landslide risk assessment specifically tailored to large photovoltaic power plants, with most studies focusing on static assessments that lack long-term sustainability in risk assessment and prediction. In this paper, a dynamic study on landslide risk at a large photovoltaic power plant project under extreme rainfall conditions is conducted. Firstly, the factors in landslide susceptibility assessment based on typical landslide characteristics in the study area are selected and an assessment index database using mapping units to extract the relevant factors is established. Subsequently, the ANP-FBN model is employed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of large photovoltaic power plant sites. Furthermore, an assessment index system for landslide hazard vulnerability is developed by considering population, economic, and material vulnerabilities, and the AHP method is adapted to assess landslides vulnerability in the study area. Finally, the landslide rainfall threshold with the susceptibility and vulnerability assessment results are coupled to achieve a dynamic assessment of landslide hazard risk at large photovoltaic power plant sites under extreme rainfall conditions. The findings highlight that the central valley and the eastern steep slope of the study area are the primary “high” and “very high” risk areas. Moreover, with the increase in rainfall duration, the risk level of landslide hazards in the study area also rises.

Seismic vulnerability assessment on porcelain electrical equipment based on Kriging model

To improve the efficiency in assessing the seismic vulnerability of porcelain electrical equipment when considering different sorts of uncertainty, this paper proposes a seismic vulnerability analysis method based on Kriging model. The one-dimension and multi-dimension Kriging models were considered in the method. Afterward, case studies were conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) gas insulated switchgear (GIS) porcelain bushing. The seismic vulnerability of the UHV GIS bushing obtained by incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method and the Kriging method were compared. The validity and applicability of the method were verified. Moreover, the effects of the dimensions of the Kriging model were analyzed. The results indicated that the Kriging method reduced the calculation quantity by 40% compared with IDA method, and the analysis error was within 5%, which significantly improved the efficiency of seismic vulnerability analysis of porcelain electrical equipment. The multi-dimension Kriging model-based method is suitable for the seismic vulnerability analysis considering different sorts of uncertainty, while the one-dimensional Kriging model-based method can obtain more stable seismic vulnerability assessment results.

Landslide susceptibility and risk analysis in Benighat Rural Municipality, Dhading, Nepal

The complex geology and undulating terrain made Nepal vulnerable to natural disasters like landslides. Benighat-Rorang Rural Municipality (RM), in the Dhading district of Nepal's Bagmati province, has experienced several minor to massive landslides that have harmed both nature and civilization. This study examines the factors influencing landslides in the Benighat-Rorang RM by analyzing soil structure, geology, land cover, geomorphology (primarily slopes and aspects), fault lines, drainage density, weather data, and road density to generate a comprehensive Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM). The LSM will help in identifying landslide-prone zones (high to low), which will, in turn, enable stakeholders to implement appropriate mitigation measures across the landslide-induced rural municipality. The current study intends to create Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping within and around the studied area by applying the AHP method while taking into account the optimal set of geo-environmental parameters to identify regions at risk of future landslides. Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Drainage, Geology, Soil Classes, Fault Line, Lineaments, Land-cover, Road Networks, Population, and climatic parameters (Rainfall, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Surface Pressure, and Wind Speed) are among the fourteen geo-environmental elements used for this research. Using the field verification approach, the results of this procedure have been validated, which can be observed in an estimated success rate curve. Meteorological factors, such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, surface pressure, and wind speed, have been examined regarding landslide susceptibility. Thus, an integrated assessment of landslide susceptibility was applied to the area to identify inhabited areas vulnerable to or at risk of landslides. Furthermore, the placement of public amenities throughout the research zone was considered while conducting the social vulnerability risk analysis. Finally, landslide susceptibility zonation, climatic factors influencing landslide susceptibility, and social vulnerability assessment results of the study area have been combined to generate a risk map identifying landslide-prone municipal facilities and vulnerable communities. This study will help in building resilient landslide communities through effective spatial urban planning that incorporates regional risks induced by landslides with infrastructure development and management strategies.

Climate Scenarios for Coastal Flood Vulnerability Assessments: A Case Study for the Ligurian Coastal Region

Extreme sea levels and coastal flooding are projected to be among the most uncertain and severe consequences of climate change. In response, a wide development of coastal vulnerability assessment methodologies has been observed in research to support societal resilience to future coastal flood risks. This work aims to explore the scope of application of index-based methodologies for coastal vulnerability assessment, in terms of their suitability to convey information on variations in climate variables potentially leading to sea-level changes and inundation. For this purpose, the InVEST Coastal Vulnerability model was coupled for the first time with the ERA5 reanalysis and used to develop a case study assessment of the biophysical exposure component of vulnerability to coastal flooding for Liguria, an Italian coastal region facing the Mediterranean Sea. Different scenarios of wind speed and wave power were created in order to test the sensitivity of this approach to climate data inputs. The results support the applicability of this approach to provide a preliminary grasp of local vulnerability to coastal inundation. Yet, this work also highlights how the method’s data aggregation and indicator computation processes result in its insensitivity to wind and wave variations, and therefore in its unsuitability to reproduce climate scenarios. The implications of these findings for research methodology and regarding the operationalisation of vulnerability assessment results are discussed.

A Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Cultural Heritage Sites: The Case of the Roman Ruins of Tróia

This article contributes to developing an indicator-based vulnerability assessment framework for cultural heritage sites. It provides a vulnerability index for heritage sites potentially exposed to multiple hazards, including sudden-onset and slow-onset hazards, while considering climate change influences. Through determining particular criteria and indicators, the Cultural Heritage Vulnerability Index incorporates structural and non-structural factors of the heritage site and its local and national settings. The assessment procedure was applied to the case of the Roman Ruins of Tróia in Portugal. The findings highlight those areas of sensitivity (e.g., the existing deterioration patterns and types of foundation) and coping and adaptive capacities (e.g., institutional setting and response plan) that significantly contribute to the level of vulnerability and risk. The results of vulnerability assessment will further enable determining priorities and developing risk mitigation and preparedness measures, in particular reducing structural sensitivity and promoting coping capacities.

The assessment of groundwater vulnerability: A case study in the Doroud-Boroujerd aquifer, Iran

Background: Agricultural, industrial, and residential activities have caused the vulnerability of the groundwater of the Doroud-Boroujerd aquifer to pollution in Lorestan province, Iran. This study aimed to investigate the vulnerability of the Doroud-Boroujerd aquifer using a set of intrinsic (DRASTIC, IV) and specific (SI, LU-IV) vulnerability assessment methods. Methods: The DRASTIC model with seven parameters of groundwater depth, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, slope, the effect of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer has the highest number of parameters. The total dissolved solids (TDS) index was used to compare the efficiency of different methods. Results: The results showed two classes of medium and high vulnerability with an area of 73.71% and 26.3%, respectively, in the DRASTIC model. The SI model had two classes of low and medium vulnerability. The IV model had three classes of low to high vulnerability, of which the high class with an area of 75.94%, had the largest extent. The LU-IV model also included four classes of very low to very high (92.02%) vulnerability. The validation of DRASTIC, SI, IV, and LU-IV models with TDS index showed a weak correlation between vulnerability maps and TDS values, so it can be concluded that this index alone is not a good indicator for validation. Conclusion: The results of vulnerability assessment of different methods generally showed that the groundwater of this area is highly vulnerable, so it is recommended to take the necessary measures to prevent, control, and manage these valuable water resources.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Patuakhali Municipality in Bangladesh

Climate change will create adversative impact on the growth and development of future cities due to the proliferation of the extreme events, which will increase human, social, and economic losses over time. Therefore, it is necessary to move towards sustainable urbanization processes to reduce the impact of climate change. This research is aimed at carrying out climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) for Patuakhali Municipality, which is one of the most vulnerable municipalities in Bangladesh located in the southcentral coastal region of Bangladesh. The vulnerability of the study area is derived by overlaying the factor maps using equal class interval weighted index (ECIWI) and principal component analysis (PCA). Both methods show similar results in case of exposure and adaptive capacity assessment, but the results of vulnerability assessment are slightly different for some of the wards due to variation in the level of sensitivity obtained from two different methods. ECIWI and PCA show that Ward 9 and Ward 1 are the most and least vulnerable wards, respectively. Although exposure to hazards is similar in the study area, the degree of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for these two areas are different, which mainly contributes to their vulnerability. CCVA will help the local government to build resilience for the urban poor to reduce climate change-induced vulnerability, which can be utilized by the policymakers to increase awareness and to mitigate risk through planned interventions. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Centennial Special Volume June 2022: 187-198

Retracted] Integrating Intrinsic and Eccentric Seismic Vulnerability Indices to Prioritize Road Network Accessibility

The main aim of this article is to shed light on the establishment of more resilient road networks, which can operate and interact regularly with the surrounding complex‐built environment systems during various natural hazards such as earthquakes. This study is integrating engineering judgment and numerical methods to create a comprehensive evaluation for assessing the accessibility rates for road networks. Moreover, it is validating the significance of integrated seismic assessment on various critical sectors in society, such as improving emergency accessibility and adapting improved mitigation strategies for communities that live in disaster‐prone districts. In this respect, this article investigates the seismic vulnerability assessment results, aiming at underpinning the understanding of road network risks by discussing the main results of the calculated probability of damage for various parameters of the roadway and its assets. A comparative study is performed to study the effect of spatially variable ground motions at different damage states for the main investigated four parameters. These extracted comparative results are used for weighting the main parameters to calculate the intrinsic seismic vulnerability index scores. Furthermore, the eccentric seismic vulnerability index is calculated, by following different steps such as assessing the calculated debris width resulting from the collapsed buildings and extracting the accessibility rates through concluding the effective width values. Subsequently, the variation between the accessibility rates is investigated and the integrated seismic risk assessment for a road system is developed with a focus on the integration between asset damage and functionality by generating integrated heat maps that take into consideration the correlation between all the developed vulnerability indices.

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historical Masonry Aggregate Buildings. The Case of Fes Medina in Morocco

ABSTRACT Historic urban centers characterised by traditional masonry aggregate patio houses have been studied under many aspects: the patio construction type allows to obtain thermal conditions suitable for particular climatic conditions and introverted interior spaces suitable for specific cultures. Conversely, the seismic vulnerability assessment is not yet thoroughly investigated. This paper proposes a methodology for the seismic vulnerability assessment at the urban scale for traditional masonry aggregate patio houses, developing on Vulnerability Index approach combined with the macroseismic method through vulnerability functions. In particular, an appropriate survey form is proposed by a thorough calibration on the remarkable case study of the Fes medina, UNESCO World Heritage site, which has suffered severe damages from earthquakes occurred in ancient time. The study allowed to realise vulnerability and fragility curves, damage scenarios, and loss scenarios. The method was applied a second time to the case study after simulated structural retrofitting interventions. The vulnerability assessment results are also presented through maps with the Geographic Information System (GIS).

Infrastructure-based transportation network vulnerability modeling and analysis

Most studies evaluating impacts and consequences of disruptive events on transportation network performance have focused on the measurement of transportation network vulnerability from macroscopic perspectives. Few works explore the effects of road infrastructure attributes on network vulnerability from a mesoscopic perspective. Road sections with different infrastructure attributes could have different impacts on the vulnerability of transportation network under disruptions. Overlooking of these differences about attributes would produce inaccurate or incorrect results of vulnerability assessment as well as subsequent countermeasure suggestions. This study proposes an accessibility approach addressing attributes of road infrastructure to measure road network vulnerability. In particular, the methodology explores the impacts of road alignment and types on network degradation under accidents. This approach was tested on the highway network of Florida, USA. Results show that various road alignment and types could have different impacts on the accessibility of road network. Road network vulnerability is obviously affected by road alignment and types. When road sections are more curved, the network becomes more vulnerable under disruptions. More bridge and tunnel sections in transportation network would result in higher vulnerability of the highway network. This work could also assist decision makers when designing and managing road infrastructures under disasters.

Study on allocation and realization method of helicopter vulnerability index

To reduce the vulnerability of attack helicopters under fragment/projectile strikes, the method of assigning vulnerability index from the whole aircraft to critical components under single and multiple attacks is mainly studied. Under a single strike, the system components in the same direction are divided into three situations: no component overlap, nonredundant model with component overlap and redundant model with component overlap. Two index allocation methods based on the ratio of the presented area of the critical components and the ratio of the vulnerability assessment results of the critical components are proposed. The system components are divided into redundant components and non-redundant components, and an index allocation method based on the proportion of critical components' vulnerability results is proposed under multiple strikes. On this basis, combining with the vulnerability reduction measures of attack helicopters, the vulnerability index requirements of corresponding components are achieved through iterative analysis. Finally, the AH-64D helicopter is subjected to simulation tests under single and multiple strikes, and the vulnerability indexes of B-level and C-level are assigned, which verified the feasibility of the method.

BIM-GIS-DCEs enabled vulnerability assessment of interdependent infrastructures – A case of stormwater drainage-building-road transport Nexus in urban flooding

Infrastructure systems are encountering unprecedented challenges as a result of climate change. Identifying infrastructure vulnerabilities before hazards strike is of paramount significance as it can help minimize the adverse consequences. However, investigating the vulnerability of single infrastructure system is myopic as it neglects the interdependencies between networked infrastructure systems. Owners and operators of different infrastructure systems should collaborate to identify infrastructure vulnerabilities against various hazard types from a system-of-systems standpoint. Nonetheless, systematic high-resolution vulnerability assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems requires versatile data and computational resources. While it is cost intensive and resourceful to develop a gigantic software for assessing infrastructure vulnerability, it is possible to synchronize available toolkits like building information modeling (BIM), geographic information system (GIS) and domain-specific computational engines (DCEs) to perform interdisciplinary infrastructure vulnerability assessment. This paper proposes an integrated BIM-GIS-DCEs approach to facilitate system-of-systems-based infrastructure vulnerability assessment. The proposed approach consists of the following key components: (i) Building information elicitation from BIM model, (ii) Physics-based pre- and post-hazard infrastructure performance simulation using DCEs, and (iii) Data integration and geospatial analysis for decision making on GIS platform. In the proposed approach, BIM provides hazard-sensitive properties of building elements, and DCEs serve to simulate the infrastructure performance before and after hazard occurs based on the predetermined physics-based operating regimes. Essentially, GIS stores the data from heterogeneous sources and mediates the semantic mapping between the simulation tools of distinct infrastructure domains. The embedded geospatial analysis functions in GIS facilitate the investigation of hazard-vulnerable components within an infrastructure system and also the expected hazard impacts at the community scale. The validity of the integrated approach is demonstrated using the stormwater drainage-building-road transport nexus during urban flooding. The integration of BIM, GIS and DCEs constitutes a new modeling paradigm which is expected to provide an effective avenue to formalize the collaborative effort between different infrastructure stakeholders not to mention about its ability to intelligently generate reliable and high-resolution vulnerability assessment results.

Possibilities for the provision of certain state services in the field of transport security in the context of special regulation

A promising way of applying experimental legal regimes in the field of digital technologies to improve the practice of providing public services in the field of ensuring transport security in railway transport is considered. An overview of the work carried out in federal government bodies related to the preparation for the transition to the provision of public services for the approval of the results of vulnerability assessment, transport security plans, certification of transport security forces in electronic form using modern information technologies is presented. The state needs to ensure the regulation of public relations, for which the possibility of interaction between subjects in digital form or using digital technologies is provided. In particular, the necessary legal basis should be created for the provision of public services in electronic form. The most relevant areas of possible application of experimental modes that can improve the quality of public services provided are given. After the transformation of individual administrative processes in the system of agency, relevant proposals for the formation of experimental regimes for the provision of public services for the approval of vulnerability assessments and transport security plans, as well as on the certification of transport security forces can be prepared in the 4th quarter of 2020 – the 1st quarter of 2021.

A new assessment method for the vulnerability of confined water: W-F&PNN method

At present, groundwater vulnerability assessment is mainly aimed at phreatic aquifer, but in most areas, people draw water from confined aquifer, so it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of confined water. As the existing groundwater vulnerability assessment methods are greatly influenced by subjectivity. The purpose of this study is to put forward W-F&PNN method to avoid subjectivity. Weber-Fechner (W-F) law in psychophysics and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) are combined in this paper. W-F law is a theory for describing the people's response to a stimulus, which is used to calculate the cluster center and determine the assessment standard; Probabilistic Neural Network is a widely used algorithm for classification, which is used to classify the vulnerability of confined water. According to the influence factors of confined water, the assessment parameters D3A2C2 were determined, and the vulnerability of confined water in plain area of Xi'an city in 2005 was assessed by W-F&PNN method and were divided into four categories. The vulnerability of confined water gradually reduces from the flood plain, the first terrace, the second terrace, the third terrace, the alluvial fan, to the loess tableland. Results of vulnerability assessment were validated by nitrate concentration in 2016 over the area. The results show that the distribution of vulnerability region is mostly consistent with that of nitrate concentration region. The W-F&PNN method does not assign rate, but calculate the cluster center; and not need to assign weight for parameters, avoiding subjectivity, is a reliable method for groundwater vulnerability assessment and suitable for the area with insufficient data.

EXPEDITIOUS METHODS OF URBAN SURVEY FOR SEISMIC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

Abstract. The aim of the proposal is to illustrate how expeditious procedures of urban survey carried out through photomodeling can be the most suitable representation tool in combination with an expeditious procedure for assessing the seismic vulnerability of the historic building heritage in Italian city centres. For some years, in fact, the research group is developing a protocol for the rapid assessment of the seismic vulnerability of masonry aggregate buildings in Italian historic centres.The protocol is based on the determination of synthetic indicators providing a preventive quantification of the possible earthquake damage. This evaluation procedure is oriented to prevent and reduce the current vulnerability, aiming at the conservation and preservation of the historic building heritage. The synthetic indicators are defined by identifying expeditious evaluation procedures based on the typical evolutionary processes suffered by each aggregate in its planimetric and height development, on the construction techniques and on the design concepts used in the local area; these aspects are directly correlated to failure modes.The application of the entire process (starting from the rapid survey phases up to the final restitution of the seismic vulnerability assessment results) is illustrated for the historic centre of Imola. The ancient nucleus of this city constitutes an excellent example, as it is clearly representative of the Emilian historical architecture both for the processes of formation and transformation of the inhabited area, both for what concerns the constructive characterization deriving from the local building traditions.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of building stock of Malakand (Pakistan) using FEMA P-154 method

Earthquakes have caused huge infrastructural damages along with loss of lives in the recent past. Continuous subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate has made Pakistan a seismically active region in the world. Malakand, located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan, is declared at high earthquake risk by the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan, warranting a seismic vulnerability assessment study for its existing building stock. Vulnerability assessment of a representative sample of different building use-types was carried out using the rapid visual screening (RVS) procedure of FEMA P-154. The sample size was calculated based on Yamane formula. RVS sheets are used to calculate structural scores, and likely seismogenic damage is depicted as a function of damage grades of European Macro Seismic Scale. Of the building stock inspected, it was observed that almost half of the buildings fall in damage grade 4 and 5, implying a strong probability of heavy structural and non-structural damages in the case of future earthquake occurrence. Government school buildings were found to be less vulnerable than private counterparts. Most of the commercial buildings were not constructed according to building code, making them highly susceptible to damage. Based on the results of vulnerability assessment of building structures, the article recommends implementation of building codes which can lead to a decrease in infrastructural damages and economic losses in the wake of a future seismic event.

Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression

Atmospheric storage tanks damaged by floods may lead to severe NaTech accident scenarios, and the vulnerability assessment of process equipment suffered by natural events is a crucial point in NaTech risk analysis. In the present study, limit state equations for failure modes of displacement and buckling are introduced based on load-resistance relationships. The parameterized fragility models that can be used in a wide variety of atmospheric unanchored storage tanks and floods have been developed based on logistic regression (LR), and moreover, the models are assessed and validated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and available accident data in literature. The effects of filling level and density of storaged liquid, the diameter and height of tank, and the inundation height and velocity of flood on the vulnerability of different failure modes are analyzed using fragility curves. Furthermore, fragility magic cubes are first proposed to obtain critical disaster conditions and critical filling levels in different cases. Finally, corresponding quantitative mitigation measures in different stages such as site selection, design, and operation are proposed based on the results of vulnerability assessment.