Voting In Canada Research Articles

The (non)-religious voter in Canadian elections

Religious and regional cleavages have been key for understanding Canadian elections, and particularly the domination of the Liberal Party of Canada. While the conventional wisdom has been that these two cleavages are the most important sociodemographic factors in explaining citizens' vote choice, scholars have not paid a lot of attention to religious voting in recent elections. In this research note, we provide the first systematic post-2011 analysis of religious voting in Canada. We do so by leveraging recent Canadian Election Studies. We examine the relationship between voters’ religious affiliation and level of religiosity and vote choice. We show that both facets of religious voting matter, but that their impacts vary across parties and regions. The findings inform scholarship on Canadian politics as well as comparative analyses of sociodemographic cleavages in electoral democracies.

Government Preferences, Vote Choice and Strategic Voting in Canada

AbstractDo voters use information about and preferences over who will form government in their vote choices? Voters might have preferences over both which party wins the most seats and what type of government that party can form, which they can use to inform their vote choice. To answer this question, we examine the influence of preferences over government types and compare them to trends in party support in the 2019 Canadian federal election. Using rolling, daily cross-sectional survey evidence from the Canadian Election Study, we find that preferences over government type are strongly related to vote choice and that this relationship depends on the perceived viability of the preferred party. We also find that this relationship differs outside and within Quebec: outside Quebec, only the Liberal Party suffers among voters preferring minority governments, while within Quebec, the Liberal Party, New Democratic Party and Conservative Party all struggle to hold on to voters who prefer minority governments.

The Changing Nature of Class Voting in Canada, 1965–2019

AbstractMuch attention has been paid to the changing class cleavage that structured political conflict in the twentieth century. In contrast to most advanced democracies, class voting has traditionally been weak in Canada. Using the entire series of the Canadian Election Study (1965–2019), we find the historic pattern of working-class voting for the New Democratic Party (NDP) held outside of Quebec in recent elections, before suddenly falling off in 2019. Starting in 2004, we find a clear and distinct trend where the working class has increased its support for the Conservatives. Although greater partisan sorting is occurring over the economy, cultural issues such as moral traditionalism and anti-immigration are now significant drivers of working-class Conservative support. The findings carry important implications for class-party relationships and reveal that Canada, despite its comparatively weak nativist cleavage, is not immune from the tensions social democratic parties have recently experienced in maintaining cross-class coalitions amid socio-economic structural changes.

How Much of Electoral Politics Is in the District? Measuring District Effects on Party Support

AbstractThe electoral district is the fundamental unit of representation in single- and multi-member electoral systems, yet most research shows little interest in district effects on election outcomes, focusing instead on national and individual factors. This is problematic as parties and candidates often put a great deal of effort into district-based campaigns. How, then, can we best capture district effects on party support? We propose a new method using official election returns and geospatial techniques. The result is a measure of how much of a party's vote share is explained by district effects. Using data from the 2006–2019 Canadian federal elections, we find that, on average, 6 to 10 per cent of the variation in a party's vote in Canada is explained by district effects. While district effects on party support are trivial for some districts, in others they account for more than 80 per cent of the variance in party vote shares. The effect of districts on party support is composed, in part, of electoral context, province, socio-economic factors and district campaign intensity. Importantly, the size and sources of district effects on party support vary across parties, suggesting heterogeneity. The benefits of our approach are threefold: (1) it is cost-effective, (2) it can be easily replicated in any setting—past or present—where districts are relevant electoral units and where districting is nonpartisan, and (3) it is responsive to differences in district composition and parties’ campaign effort.

One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada by Joan Sangster

<i>One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada</i> by Joan Sangster

E-voting in Canada: Does age affect attitudes towards online voting?

&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D; Elections need to remain innovative and robust in the fast-changing world in the digital age. While previous literature focuses on the technicality, legality, security and practicality of e-voting in Canada, the purpose of this study is to find if younger voters would adopt a different attitude towards online voting than older voters. The question at hand here is; how does age affect attitudes towards online voting in Canada? For populations that are under-represented in Canada, online voting can be a conduit that leads to better civic engagement, increased political participation and a better perception of elections. Online voting makes it easier for younger voters to engage in civic duties rather than going into polling stations and filling out a ballot in the electoral process. Often, a cost and benefit analysis is the mechanism behind rational choice voting. Therefore, there is reason to believe online voting may lead to a better sense of engagement for younger voters who are currently disengaged from our political system. Online voting could also lead to better representation for the interests of younger cohorts.&#x0D; &#x0D; &#x0D;

One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada

<i>One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada</i>

Joan Sangster. One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada.

J<scp>oan</scp> S<scp>angster</scp>. <i>One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada</i>.

One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada by Joan Sangster

One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada by Joan Sangster

Joan Sangster, &lt;em&gt;One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada&lt;/em&gt;

Joan Sangster, &lt;em&gt;One Hundred Years of Struggle: The History of Women and the Vote in Canada&lt;/em&gt;

Indigenous Peoples and Affinity Voting in Canada

AbstractStudies interested in Indigenous voting in Canada tend to focus on socio-economic, cultural and political factors that explain their lower levels of electoral participation. While highly relevant given Canada's ongoing reality as a settler-colonial state, these studies are of limited help in making sense of recent increases in electoral engagement in Indigenous communities across the country. Using data from four elections between 2006 and 2015, this study focuses instead on why some Indigenous individuals vote and how they vote. Our analysis suggests that one of many possible reasons for the recent surge in Indigenous turnout has to do with the candidates presenting themselves for elections. Higher voter turnout in Indigenous communities corresponds with a higher proportion of Indigenous candidates. This trend is consistent with the literature on affinity voting. We also find that political parties who present an Indigenous candidate receive more votes in constituencies with a high proportion of Indigenous voters.

Beyond Nationalism and Regionalism: The Stability of Economic Voting in Canada

AbstractPrevious research has argued that while economic voting is quite consistently found to be an important mechanism in the rest of Canada, it is rather weak in Quebec. Guérin and Nadeau (1998) have demonstrated that whether or not citizens in Quebec vote economically depends on the party system. Following their lead, we expect that the presence of a dominant regionalist party in Quebec after 1993 (the Bloc Québécois) inhibited Quebeckers from voting economically. However, our results do not offer evidence for this hypothesis. Furthermore, we find only weak evidence of economic voting being moderated by voters’ attitudes towards Quebec independence. Our study hence suggests that the impact of economic accountability in Canada is not hindered by a strong regional party or by the salience of the issue of Quebec independence. The economic vote, it seems, is more stable and general than it is regularly argued to be.

Like Father, Like Son: Justin Trudeau and Valence Voting in Canada’s 2015 Federal Election

Canada's 2015 federal election was an exiting, as well as a nostalgia provoking, contest. After nine years in office, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the governing Conservatives were defeated by the resurgent Liberals led by Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is the son of Pierre Trudeau, perhaps Canada’s best known prime minister. Analyses of national survey data demonstrate that party leader images—a major component of the valence politics model of electoral choice—were important in both cases. Unlike his father, Justin Trudeau was castigated as a lightweight and just not ready. However, articulating plausible policies to jump-start Canada's sluggish economy and espousing sunny ways, the younger Trudeau was warmly received by many voters. In contrast, Harper's image of managerial competence was tarnished by bad economic news, and his attempt to refocus the campaign on emotionally charged cultural issues failed. The result was a Liberal majority government and a prime minister named Trudeau.

Does Tactical Voting Matter? The Political Impact of Tactical Voting in Canadian Elections

Tactical voting primarily takes place under single-member district plurality electoral institutions and takes the form of third-party supporters voting for one of the major parties. Although much has been written about tactical voting, few studies have attempted to show its impact on seat distribution within the parliament or on the makeup of the subsequent government, in countries with single-member plurality systems. In this article, we assess the magnitude and impact of tactical voting in0 the Canadian general elections between 1988 and 2000. We build a model of tactical voting by identifying factors that are known to affect the level of tactical voting that we can measure using available data. Based on this model, we generate predicted levels of tactical voting for all parties within each district, and then use these predicted values to adjust the actual election data to produce a new set of data containing a would-be election outcome in the absence of tactical voting. By comparing actual election data, adjusted election data, and the seat share of political parties in the parliament after these elections, we discuss the political impact of tactical voting in Canada. The results of our study affirm that, in some cases, tactical voting does lead to election outcomes different from those in its absence and that arguments based on voter rationality are to some degree valid in the real world. At the same time, our results demonstrate that the impact of tactical voting on election outcomes, and thus on the actual distribution of seats within the parliament, has been minimal in Canada. It had no impact on the partisan composition of the government in any of the four elections studied.

Behind the Man: John Laurie, Ruth Gorman and the Indian Vote in Canada (review)

Behind the Man: John Laurie, Ruth Gorman and the Indian Vote in Canada (review)

Behind the Man: John Laurie, Ruth Gorman, and the Indian Vote in Canada (review)

Behind the Man: John Laurie, Ruth Gorman, and the Indian Vote in Canada (review)

Two political worlds?: The influence of provincial party loyalty federal voting in Canada

Scholars have known for years that many Canadian voters hold different partisan loyalties at the federal and provincial level. In this paper, I address the question of whether provincial party loyalty has an effect on federal level vote choice above and beyond the effects of federal level party loyalty. I also examine whether provincial party loyalty is enough to explain the persistence of the ‘two-party-plus’ system in Canada. In order to address these questions I construct a series of multinomial logit models of federal vote choice in the 1993 and 2000 Canadian elections. I conclude that provincial party loyalty does have an effect on federal level vote choice, but that this influence is not enough to explain the persistence of the ‘two-party-plus’ system.

Network Diversity and Vote Choice: Women's Social Ties and Left Voting in Canada

Building on Mark Granovetter's concept of weak ties, we argue that diverse social networks can enhance the propensity of women to vote for a party of the Left. Using data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study, we test two hypotheses: First, the wider the range of women known, the more likely women are to vote for the Left, and second, the wider the range of higher-status women known, the more likely married women are to vote for the Left. We argue that socially communicated cues may be particularly consequential for women because they tend to know less about the parties and their platforms than men do. Accordingly, casual acquaintances can be an important source of new information for women. Women with more diverse ties to other women, we argue, are more likely to encounter women who are voting for the party of the Left and to recognize their shared interest in voting similarly. Our second hypothesis builds on Susan Carroll's argument that women require sufficient autonomy to express their gender-related interests in their choice of party. We argue that married women's political autonomy can be enhanced if their social networks include a range of women who do enjoy such autonomy. Ties with higher-status women can be a source of psychological resources that facilitate voting for a party of the Left. We find support for both of these hypotheses.

Flawless Campaign, Fragile Victory: Voting in Canada's 2006 Federal Election

Canada's 23rd general election was held on January 23, 2006. Only 20 months earlier, on June 28, 2004, the governing Liberals—in power continuously since 1993—had been reduced to a minority in Parliament, winning 135 of 308 seats and 37% of the popular vote. Minority governments in Canada typically have quite short half-lives, and the Liberal government formed in 2004 was no exception. After narrowly avoiding defeat on its budget bill in May 2005, the government lost a vote of confidence in the House of Commons on November 28, and Canadians faced the prospect of a winter trek to the polls. And, since the holiday season was fast approaching, Election Day was deferred until late January, making the campaign an atypically long one by Canadian standards. It also proved to be a very exciting one.

Strategic voting in Canada: A Cross Time Analysis

Canada seems to refute Duverger's Law by sustaining more than two political parties in a plurality system, suggesting that Canadian voters do not utilize the “wasted vote” calculus. However, many studies have found evidence of strategic voting in the electorate, although the work is limited because scholars have typically tested varying models at single points in time. This paper uses data from Canadian federal elections from 1988 to 2000 to test the expected utility model, developed by McKelvey and Ordeshook (1972), on those with an incentive to vote strategically across all four elections. We extend the model to test hypotheses related to party system changes and individual factors (minor party support and political sophistication). Our findings strongly support the model and many of the individual level hypotheses, although the results pertaining to the system level hypotheses are mixed.