Voting Behavior Research Articles

Authoritarian Nostalgia, Group Sentiment, and Voter Behavior: Evidence from East Asia

Authoritarian Nostalgia, Group Sentiment, and Voter Behavior: Evidence from East Asia

“The Druze vote in Israel: between ideology, socioeconomic status, kinship, and the Nation-State Basic Law”

ABSTRACT This study investigates the determinants of Druze voting behaviour in Israel, focusing on three theoretical frameworks: ideological, socioeconomic, and kinship theories. Analysing electoral data from 2003 to 2022, the study examines trends in voter turnout and party preferences among the Druze community. Findings reveal a complex interplay of factors influencing Druze political choices. The ideological theory suggests that shifts in political ideology, particularly in response to legislative changes such as the 2018 Nation-State Basic Law, impact Druze voting patterns. Conversely, the socioeconomic theory posits that local economic conditions, education levels, and population demographics shape voting behaviour. Furthermore, the kinship theory highlights the significance of community ties and descriptive representation in guiding political allegiances. Through statistical analysis, the study identifies kinship ties, specifically the inclusion of Druze candidates within political parties, as the most significant predictor of Druze voter support. This suggests that community representation holds considerable sway over Druze political choices, transcending the influence of ideology and socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, while all three theories offer valuable insights, the dominance of the kinship theory underscores the importance of identity and descriptive representation in shaping Druze electoral outcomes in Israel.

Narrow Margins and Misinformation: The Impact of Sharing Fake News in Close Contests

This study investigates the impact of candidates disseminating fake news on voter behavior and electoral outcomes in highly competitive, partisan races. While the effects of fake news on electoral outcomes have been studied, research has yet to examine the impact of candidates’ strategic use of fake news in elections where it may have the greatest impact—close races. This research explores whether the use of fake news influences voter support, particularly among independent voters, in tightly contested elections. Through a conjoint survey experiment involving participants from Amazon MTurk, this study analyzes how variables such as race competitiveness, perceived risk of alienating independents, and the presence of partisan labels affect voter responses to candidates who spread misinformation. The findings indicate that while the competitiveness of a race does not significantly enhance support for candidates sharing fake news, the presence of partisan labels does. These results suggest that voter behavior in response to fake news is more closely tied to partisan identity than to strategic electoral considerations. This study highlights the complex dynamics of misinformation in electoral contexts and its implications for democratic processes.

Personalized Facebook campaigning and the quest for personal votes in Taiwan

ABSTRACT Personalization is a growing trend in politics that has been well studied, yet the current literature has no causal explanations for the relationship between personalized media activities and personal votes or an understanding the contextual factors that shape it. This study examines how candidates have used Facebook as means of personalization and its impact on voting during Taiwan’s 2020 legislative campaign. It assumes that personalized campaigns originate from a need among candidates to gain personal votes and that this need is determined by the intensity of a given competition. Intensified competition between parties increases a candidate’s need for personalized activities on social media, which in turn bring in more personal votes. Through a content analysis of 27,977 Facebook posts and the compiling of data on personal votes, the models confirm two hypotheses: those in party strongholds (safe districts) are less likely to make personalized posts, and those who post more personalized messages are more likely to gain personal votes. This paper enhances our understanding of how different facets of personalization within social media are intricately linked and mutually reinforce one another in shaping voter behavior.

Preventative Polarization: Republican Senators’ Positional Adaptation in the Tea Party Era

Republicans in Congress have, by almost any measure, become significantly more conservative over the last 25 years. We propose that the changing pressures they face when seeking reelection helps explain this trend. Rather than moderating towards the general election median voter as they had previously done, Republican senators became more conservative when seeking reelection to avoid the emergence of, or mitigate the threat from, a primary opponent after the Tea Party emerged. We also show that at the height of the Tea Party era—the 111th to 113th congresses—retiring senators moderated their voting behavior, suggesting that their personal preferences were more moderate than their expressed preferences. During the Trump era, we report mixed results, suggesting that the threat posed by primary challengers was not solely ideological, though the new dynamics and behaviors that emerged in the Tea Party era have continued to shape the Republican Party in the Senate.

Partisan habitual voters in South Korea: Employing Random Forests to understand Korean voters' electoral choices

AbstractObjectiveThis study investigates whether recent political events in South Korea, such as a presidential impeachment and changes in leadership, have caused a realignment of voters' political affiliations. We aim to determine whether political party allegiance has transitioned into a pattern of habitual voting in the last ten years.MethodsEmploying a Random Forest model based on machine learning approaches, we examined polling data from the last ten years of Korean presidential elections. Instead of relying on hypothesis‐led methods, our analysis emphasizes the intrinsic characteristics of the data to uncover crucial elements affecting voter behavior in each election.ResultsOur results reveal a considerable consistency in voting patterns over the past decade, implying that allegiance to political parties has turned into a habitual behavior. Significant factors affecting voter choices in the 2022 election were also recognized as indicators of election outcomes five and ten years prior.ConclusionThe study reveals that voter behavior in South Korea remains stable despite notable political changes, primarily influenced by habitual elements rather than substantial changes in party loyalty. This suggests that political allegiance has become ingrained as a habitual behavior for Korean voters.

Enhancing predictive accuracy of electoral outcomes: A comparative study of dimension reduction techniques in linear regression models

The effectiveness of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FA) in enhancing the predictive accuracy and interpretability of linear regression models for electoral outcomes is examined in this study, with a focus on the Croatian presidential election. Challenges such as multicollinearity and model complexity were addressed through the application of PCA and FA to socio-demographic and political variables, resulting in their transformation into a simpler, more manageable form. Multicollinearity was significantly reduced by PCA, and model stability was improved. Deeper insights into voter behavior were provided by FA through the identification of latent variables. Improvements were noted; however, issues with homoscedasticity were identified, which affected the predictive reliability of the models. The optimized linear regression model, specifically designed to address homoscedasticity (LR2), was found to demonstrate superior performance in terms of predictive accuracy and stability when compared to models that utilized PCA and FA alone. The importance of maintaining homoscedasticity in regression models is underscored by the findings, and the potential of dimension reduction techniques to improve electoral predictions is highlighted. The integration of these techniques in forecasting models is advocated for, with the aim of assisting political analysts and policymakers. It is suggested that future research could explore the combination of these methods with other advanced modeling approaches to further enhance predictive capabilities.

Pola Preferensi Politik Pemilih Pemula Di Kota Makassar

First-time voters are a fairly large segment of voters. This shows that First-Time voters are a large resource in politics in Indonesia. Indonesia as a democratic country certainly expects every element of society to be actively involved in every democratic process, including the first-time voter segment. First-time voters as an important segment then have quite good political awareness. Through this political awareness, a pattern of political preference formation will then be formed. First-time voters as a large political resource are of course highly expected to be able to participate, at least voting in elections. So far, existing research regarding First-time voters only places as mere objects. However, this research then examines in more depth the patterns of political preference formation that will influence the political behavior of first-time voters. This research is qualitative research with primary data obtained through in-depth interviews with high school students as research informants. Based on the research conducted, it appears that First-time voters in Makassar City have quite good political awareness, which is an implication of their better political knowledge. So, when making choices in an election, First-time voters have a tendency to make their own choices based on their political preferences. The pattern of forming political preferences of first-time voters is sociology, rationality and psychology. Keywords: Firs-time voters, Political Preferences, Political Awareness

Caretaker Conventions in Crisis Times: Dutch Government‐Opposition Dynamics After the Fall of the Government

How does the caretaker status of a government affect party political dynamics in parliament during a crisis? Generally, caretaker governments are not mandated to introduce important policy changes. Yet major crises can demand decisive political action. This article aims to understand the consequences of the caretaker status of the Rutte III government in the Netherlands (after its resignation in January 2021) for government-opposition dynamics during the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. We first analyse party voting behaviour in parliament and then draw on a qualitative text analysis of nine critical parliamentary debates. Surprisingly, we find that differences between mandated and caretaker status have little effect on parliamentary dynamics. Opposition parties with coalition potential are supportive of the government and take on a cooperative tone; opposition parties without coalition potential are not supportive and take on a combative tone and oppose in harsher terms, yet even they barely mention caretaker status. As such, this case provides unique insights into the functioning of caretaker conventions during crises which offer opportunities for new theorising in the undertheorised field of caretaker cabinets and parliaments.

Are women more progressive than men? Attitudinal gender gaps in West European democracies

We assess gender gaps in attitudes to several important and distinct policy areas, including economic left–right issues, gender equality, immigration, environmentalism and traditional ‘moral issues’. Drawing on comprehensive survey data from 14 established democracies in Western Europe, we document that women have more progressive attitudes than men do on all the five attitudinal dimensions that we consider. These patterns are similar (albeit not identical) across West European countries, despite cross-country differences in political cultures and systems. We also elaborate on potential implications of our findings for other political outcomes of interest, including voting behaviour and the functioning of representative democracy, and point to avenues for future research in detailing the mechanisms that contribute to the observed gender gaps.

Geoff Brennan on the Ethics and Rationality of Voting

Geoff Brennan made a wide range of important contributions to the literature on the ethics and rationality of voting. This article begins by situating these contributions in the broader debate over rational choice theory and the so-called paradox of voting. It then introduces Geoff’s expressive theory of voter behaviour, as developed in conjunction with Loren Lomasky, and considers its significance for the justification of democracy and the ethics of voting. The final section engages critically with Geoff’s view that citizens do not have moral duties to vote, developing a novel argument in defence of such duties that appeals to the importance of the social norms that undergird the processes of representative democracy.

Rational voting behaviour accounting for heterogeneous ballots in British elections

Rational voting behaviour accounting for heterogeneous ballots in British elections

What Explains Voting for DENK: Issues, Discrimination or In-group Favouritism?

ABSTRACT Why do ethnic and religious minorities vote for DENK? DENK is the first pro-Turkey and pro-Islam party represented in Dutch parliament, led by Turkish- and Moroccan-origin politicians who openly profess to practicing Islam. Drawing on an original survey (N= 905) among Dutch voters in which we oversampled those with Turkish, Moroccan and Surinamese roots, we put three possible explanations to the test: issues, discrimination and in-group favouritism. Each subsample is religiously mixed and includes Muslims and/or Christians and voters who are not religious. While ethnic in-group favouritism, feelings of belonging in the Netherlands, experiences with discrimination and issues sometimes explain voting for DENK, Muslim in-group favouritism is the decisive factor. These findings contribute to understanding voting behaviour in increasingly religiously diverse European immigration societies.

Does vote buying undermine confidence in ballot secrecy? Theory and experimental evidence

Abstract Why does vote buying persist under the secret ballot? We argue initiating vote-buying transactions allows politicians to undermine voter confidence in the secret ballot, and thus to induce voter compliance. Our analysis consists of three parts. First, we present evidence from a survey experiment in Mexico that shows receiving material goods from a candidate diminishes voter confidence in ballot integrity. Next, we introduce an informational theory of vote buying that explains this phenomenon. Specifically, we develop a model of vote buying as a signaling game, in which a voter who is ex ante uncertain about a politician's capacity to monitor voter behavior learns new information from the politician's actions. Finally, we test the key insights from the model in a lab experiment. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, offering material goods to voters is sufficient to erode their confidence in ballot secrecy, making vote buying effective.

Impact of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) on Voting Behavior of Women in District Sanghar

This paper, based on the findings of the research project sponsored by Sindh Higher Education Commission, attempts to study the impact of BISP on the voting behaviour of women in district Sanghar, Pakistan. Sanghar is one of the largest districts of Rural Sindh in terms of population and area, which is comprised of 6 talukas. The population of district is more than 2 million and around half of the population of district is female. There are mainly two large political parties in district Sanghar which secure most of the seats of national as well as provincial assemblies. However, after the launching of Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) in 2008, the results of elections have turned in favour of one party. In last general elections 2018 Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) bagged 6 out of 9 seats as compared to 0 seats out of 9 in 2002. Thus, the study has selected the Sanghar district as model to assess the impact of BISP on voting behavior. Mixed method research approach was employed to collect data for this study. Total of 1079 face-to-face structured questionnaires were administered and 12 focus group discussion (FGDs) were conducted in six talukas of the district. The results demonstrate major change in the voting behavior of voters in district Sanghar. The findings of the study suggest the significant impact of BISP on the voting behavior of women in Sanghar district.

Does the top two primary system moderate the voting behavior of elected officials?

Does the top two primary system moderate the voting behavior of elected officials?

Deepfake Cases in the 2024 Lok Sabha Election: Impact and Implications for Democracy

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India have been significantly impacted by the pervasive use of deepfake technology, raising critical concerns about its implications for democracy. This article delves into specific instances of deepfake utilization during the election, exploring their effects on voter behavior and broader democratic processes. It highlights how deepfakes have been employed to spread misinformation, manipulate voter perceptions, and discredit political opponents, thereby undermining trust in the electoral system. The response from regulatory bodies, including the Election Commission of India and the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Center, is examined, showcasing efforts to mitigate these threats. Furthermore, the article discusses the urgent need for enhanced regulatory measures and public awareness to combat the growing menace of AI-driven misinformation. The findings underscore the profound challenges that deepfake technology poses to the integrity of democratic elections, emphasizing the necessity for collaborative strategies to protect democratic values in the digital age.

Influence of social cleavage and media usage on political behavior: a case of Pakistan

Increasingly media provides ample opportunities for the audiences to make media choices and form different levels of exposure along political lines. Predominately, Pakistan’s media is recognized as an irreplaceable tool in sparking change in the political landscape, forgoing national-regional identities, and bridging social gaps. Due to recent technological advancements citizens’ media usage brought changes in the political behavior of citizens regarding party choices and voting behavior. Such changes in the political behavior of citizens affect decision making which is influenced by social cleavage of education, gender, and age. However, contrary to similar historical changes, these advances have widened rather than narrowed societal cleavages. The objective of the paper is to explore the influence of social cleavage and media usage on political behavior of students and faculty in Pakistan specifically NUML university, Islamabad. This research explores how social cleavage and recent advances in digital media access changed the political behavior of faculty and students of NUML university. The paper employed survey-based research with a sample of 250 faculty members and students of NUML, Islamabad. According to results, it is concluded that social cleavage of education, age, and gender plays a vital role in transforming the political behavior of both faculty members and students. Likewise, persistent use of social media portrays positive political participation along with accountable voting behavior, whereby males are more active in participating in political activities as compared to females. The paper has policy implications for a one-dimensional media approach for ignoring solutions to political problems and understanding citizenship rights. Focused and well-defined policies are required to bring youth back to broadcasting media.

Populist Leaders as Gatekeepers: André Ventura Uses News to Legitimize the Discourse

This study explores the role of populist leaders as gatekeepers on social media, seeking to understand how André Ventura, president of Chega!, uses news to legitimize his political discourse. The methodology involved collecting 90 tweets containing legacy media news features, posted by Ventura on the social media platform X. These tweets cover key political events such as the resignation of Portugal’s Prime Minister, the dissolution of the Portuguese Parliament, and European elections. Quantitative analysis using Voyant Tools identified key terms related to Ventura’s ideological stance, while Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) examined how these terms support his political narrative. The findings reveal a strategic use of news to promote themes like nationalism, immigration control, corruption and social dichotomy between “us” and “them”. Ventura’s tweets leverage news headlines to enhance his persuasive appeal, acting as heuristic shortcuts to reinforce his political messages. This study highlights the relevance of understanding social media’s role in promoting populism and suggests avenues for future research, including comparative analyses of other populist leaders and the impact of these narratives on voter behavior and perceptions.

Backsliding Populist Governments in the Council: The Case of the Hungarian Fidesz

Populist governments aim to fundamentally challenge the EU, raising the question of when and how backsliding populist governments disrupt decision-making in the Council of the EU (hereafter Council). Due to their anti-elite and strong anti-EU stance, along with their opposition to core values of liberal democracy, I argue that these governments are more inclined to resort to <em>unpolitics</em>, understood as “unsettlement.” Analysing the behaviour of the Hungarian Fidesz government in the Council, the article demonstrates that populist governments resort to unpolitics but use an à la carte approach. Populist backsliding governments selectively oppose the Council’s formal and informal decision-making rules. Looking at the voting behaviour in the Council since 2009, the article shows that the Fidesz government preserves the norm of consensus. However, over time, it has become the government that has most often broken with this norm. Conversely, when it comes to “backsliding-inhibiting competences,” the Fidesz government challenges both formal and informal rules through a wide range of strategies, i.e., systematically contesting the legality of procedures and decisions, embracing a confrontational approach and diplomacy, self-victimisation, bending the truth, and accusatory rhetoric. To illustrate them, the article focuses on decisions related to the dismantlement of the rule of law in the country, such as Article 7 TEU, the application of Regulation 2020/2092, and the disbursement of Cohesion funds.