Voter Attitudes Research Articles

Fairweather Cosmopolitans: Immigration Attitudes in Latin America During the Migrant Crisis

Abstract What explains voter attitudes toward immigration in Latin America? This article argues that increased refugee arrivals moderate the impact of social identities on immigration attitudes. We propose that informational cues associated with increased immigration make cosmopolitan identities less important—and exclusionary national identities more important—determinants of immigration preferences. Analyzing 12 Latin American countries from the 2017–2022 wave of the World Values Survey, we demonstrate that cosmopolitanism is positively associated with pro-immigration attitudes, but only in countries experiencing low-to-moderate refugee inflows. Conversely, nationalism is negatively associated with pro-immigrant attitudes, and increasingly so as refugee inflows increase. The uneven distribution of refugee migration has therefore reshaped public opinion in Latin America by moderating the effects of competing social identities (i.e., cosmopolitanism and nationalism). These findings contribute to broader debates on the behavioral impacts of immigration by highlighting an indirect mechanism by which increased immigration may generate anti-immigrant hostility.

Religious references in political campaigning: a comparative analysis of Latin America and Western Europe on social media

The relationship between religion and politics is receiving increasing attention in political science, although the focus is often on voter attitudes. Despite secularization trends, scholars expect a resurgence of religion in Western European party politics, where Christianity as a native identity is opposed to non-native Islam by populist radical right parties. In this context, it is primarily hostility toward other religious groups that structures religious elements in political communication. In most Latin American societies, religiosity plays a much greater role for individuals, which is reflected in the discourses of political elites who use genuine religious references to appeal to religious voters (“sacralization of politics”). Using data from my own recent research on content analysis of parties’ and candidates’ Facebook profiles, this article compares how political actors in Latin America and Western Europe use religious references in electoral campaigns and how salient these discourses are. The results help to explain the different prominence of religious discourses in different democratic regions and religious markets. The article contributes to the ongoing debate on the role of religion in 21st century politics.

Voter attitudes and politicians with health conditions and disabilities

AbstractBackgroundMillions of Americans live with chronic health conditions and disabilities. While disability and disabling conditions are common in the United States, the number of politicians and candidates with disclosed disabilities or chronic health conditions remains extremely low.ObjectivesThis study examines what drives the lack of descriptive representation of individuals with disabilities or chronic health conditions. In particular, it examines whether disability bias, or more specifically ableism, drives voter bias against politicians with health challenges and disabilities.MethodsThe analysis relies on two original surveys with samples of American respondents that match Census quotas on key indicators. The first survey was administered to more than 1800 U.S. respondents in 2018. The second survey was administered to 6345 U.S. respondents in 2020. The approach combines observational and experimental data, as well as quantitative and qualitative analysis.ResultsThe findings reveal that voters are significantly less likely to support candidates with disclosed disabilities or health conditions. Mental illness and HIV face the strongest discrimination, while physical challenges due to birth conditions like wheelchair usage and dwarfism are the least penalized. A combination of prejudice, negative character assessment, and electability concerns drive voter bias.ConclusionUnderstanding the barriers to the election of politicians with disabilities and chronic health conditions is crucial to improve the representation of marginalized communities, as descriptive representation improves public policy outcomes for marginalized communities.

Navigating Gender and Sectarian Affiliation: An Analysis of Young Voters’ Bias Against Female Politicians in Lebanon

In May 2018, a record-breaking number of 86 women candidates ran for parliamentary elections in Lebanon, a country with a power-sharing, consociational, sect-based system that guarantees the representation of 18 legally recognized sects (i.e. religious confessions). Yet, only six women were elected. This article explores whether and how sectarianism trumps gender and support for female candidates in general in vote intention. In doing so, it addresses the interaction between sectarian/ethnic and gender voting in contexts where both identities intersect. This intersection emerges when vote intention is influenced by factors that stem from the patriarchal nature of society and structures of sectarianism, creating interdependent systems of disadvantage. Building on a countrywide pre-electoral survey on the attitudes of young voters in Lebanon, I test ethnic voting and gender-affinity theories and develop fine-grained conceptual links between gender and the wider norms of inclusion and exclusion under sectarian-based political systems in post-conflict countries.

Understanding Voter Resistance to Political Campaigns: Evidence from National Elections of Pakistan

Political marketing literature acknowledges the pivotal role of marketing campaigns in building political support, yet a notable gap exists in understanding voters’ resistance to political campaigns. This paper argues that voters’ resistance can be managed if their attitudes are understood. Grounded in the Tripartite theory of attitude that conceptualizes attitude as a complex relationship between cognition (voter’s apathy, skepticism and cynicism), affection (voter’s dissatisfaction and frustration) and conation (voter’s resistance to political campaigns), the study tests a model for understanding resistance to political marketing. An empirical investigation of 454 participants from 2018 national elections in Pakistan, utilizing a structured questionnaire for data collection and employing structural equation modeling analysis techniques, reveals that skepticism and dissatisfaction significantly fuel voters’ resistance to political efforts. These factors engender disbelief, erode trust, and diminish interest in political candidates and their parties. Based on these findings, we draw implications for advocating citizen engagement over a sole reliance on advertisements to mitigate negative voter attitudes toward political campaigns.

2019 European Elections in Cyprus: An Empirical Exploration of Second-Order Election Effects and Europe Salience

Abstract By focusing on Cyprus’ constitutional and political system in light of the most recent European elections, this article explores and empirically analyses the second-order election theory and the European salience theory. The study applies these theories to identify key trends in Cypriot voters’ electoral behavior, including their attitudes toward European integration. The contribution starts with a brief preliminary section on the country’s historical background, geopolitical profile, and political landscape. It then provides insights on Cyprus’ electoral system, the political parties’ campaigns, and election results. The findings seek to unveil voter attitudes and political trends in Cyprus, feeding public discussion and academic dialogue on the issue in anticipation of the upcoming 2024 European election. The article aims to clarify the European South’s attitudes toward voting and what to expect in the upcoming 2024 elections, considering challenges, threats, and volatility.1

Pengaruh Dukungan Selebriti dalam Komunikasi Politik Terhadap Sikap Pemilih pada Pemilihan Presiden 2024

Celebrity support for presidential candidates has become a common phenomenon in Indonesia. Celebrities with large followings on social media and high popularity can influence public opinion and voter attitudes. The internet and social media allow for political communication by celebrities. This research aims to analyze the influence of celebrity endorsement on voters' attitudes in the 2024 presidential election. This research uses quantitative methods with a survey approach. Data was collected through questionnaires distributed to respondents in Indonesia. The population of this study are voters in the 2024 presidential election. The sampling technique was carried out using random sampling technique. The collected data was analyzed using a regression test using the SPSS program. The research results show that celebrity endorsement can be one of the factors influencing voter attitudes in the 2024 presidential election. Celebrity endorsement can increase a candidate's popularity and influence public perception withpolitical communication of the candidate, especially among young voters, voters who have an emotional attachment to celebrities, and voters who are less have information about the candidate.

The effects of fiscal policy management, candidacy of previous mayors, and illiteracy on mayoral reelection in Brazil

AbstractThis study investigates factors influencing the reelection prospects of Brazilian mayors. Analyzing a comprehensive data set spanning 5114 municipalities across four elections reveals that increases in investment and current expenditures before elections pay off at the polls. Moreover, higher average investment expenditures throughout the term enhance reelection chances. The results also indicate that when former term‐limited mayors run against the incumbent, reelection probability diminishes, particularly with higher average investment by the previous mayor. Finally, the level of literacy shapes voter attitudes towards opportunistic fiscal strategies: voters with limited literacy are inclined to reward increases in current expenditures, whereas more educated populations prefer increasing investment.

From torches to trees: Political party logo changes and voter perception

Logos are a prominent visual signal used by virtually every European political party. Most of these parties have also changed their logo at some point in their history. Despite the ubiquitousness of both logos and logo changes, little is known about voter attitudes towards this element of the party brand. To examine these questions, we first provide a theoretical framework that can be used to understand party logos and logo changes. We then implement a survey experiment in the United Kingdom to determine if voters notice these logo changes, how these may affect the issues that voters associate with the party, and how competent they perceive the party to be on these issues. Our findings provide suggestive evidence that voters notice and consider changes to the party logo, and that these changes can alter the issues that voters associate with the party. These findings provide the groundwork for future studies on party logos.

The Influence of Media Exposure to the Final Presidential Debate Program in 2024 on Net TV Channel on the Attitudes of Voters in Jakarta

The Influence of Media Exposure to the Final Presidential Debate Program in 2024 on Net TV Channel on the Attitudes of Voters in Jakarta

Party Realignment: Ethnic Identity versus Egocentrism among Malaysian Voters

This study investigates the dynamics of voting intention concerning party realignment among voters in Malaysia using a Theory of Reasoned Action-based model. It delves into the roles of attitudes and subjective norms in shaping party preferences and aligns with quantitative methodology. A comprehensive self-administered survey questionnaire engaged 450 participants from diverse ethnic backgrounds in the Batang Kali State Constituency to elucidate party realignment complexities. They are chosen using stratified random sampling, based on a race proportion of 5:1:1. The findings reveal that voter attitudes wielded a more significant impact than subjective norms associated with ethnic identity. This outcome underscores the pivotal role of attitudes in influencing decision-making, while the influence of subjective norms remains limited. The research highlights the subjective norm's role in a multicultural context, clarifying that it is not the primary catalyst for party realignment. Instead, personal beliefs (people's egocentric behaviour) play a substantial role in shaping voter attitudes. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between subjective norms (ethnic identity), attitudes (egocentrism), and party realignment within Malaysia's diverse social landscape. Moreover, they hold significant implications for formulating effective political strategies and government policies within a multicultural society.

Understanding Party Realignment Dynamics: Insights from Malaysian Voters in the Batang Kali Context

ABSTRACT Malaysian politics witnesses a remarkable phenomenon of frequent shifts in voter party preferences, indicating a high level of volatility in political allegiances during elections. This study uses the Theory of Reasoned Action as a framework to examine how voting intention influences party realignment among Malaysian. It explores the impact of attitudes, subjective norms related to ethnic identity, and candidate image on party preferences. The research utilized a quantitative approach with proportionate stratified random sampling. A self-administered survey questionnaire was distributed to 450 participants, maintaining a ratio of 5:1:1 across race and voting districts. These participants represented diverse ethnic backgrounds within the Batang Kali State Constituency, Malaysia. Conducting the study in Batang Kali offers access to relevant populations and facilitates representative sampling, contextual insights, and comparative analysis. Findings suggest that voter attitudes and candidate image play significant roles in decision-making, outweighing subjective norms related to ethnic identity. Subjective norms are not the primary driver of party realignment in a multicultural context. Personal beliefs notably shape voter attitudes, with a candidate's image overshadowing the influence of voting attitude. These insights enhance our understanding of the interplay between subjective norms, attitudes, and candidate images within Malaysia's diverse social landscape, particularly in Batang Kali. The study highlights the importance of prioritizing candidate image and voters' egocentric attitudes in political campaigns over subjective norms associated with ethnic identity.

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Elections

The digital revolution, characterized by the proliferation of social media and the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI), has significantly impacted the political landscape of every country where free and fair elections are conducted. AI has the potential to affect the elections both positively as well as negatively. It is an opportunity to improve the democratic process in our societies by helping citizens to gain a better understanding of politics and engage more easily in democratic debate. Politicians can also improve their ability to represent the people by getting to know them better. This kind of cooperation between voters and elected officials has the potential to transform political campaigns and significantly enhance the process of formulating public policy, rendering it more precise and effective. On the other hand, there are certain concerns over the use of AI in politics as it poses multiple risks to democracies like misinformation and disinformation campaigns including deep fakes, the amplification and weaponization of hate speech, micro-targeting of voters, racial and gender stereotyping, AI-driven campaigning and the possibility of aspects of electoral processes being targeted through automated messaging such as political bots and chatbots. These AI-driven disinformation tools have the capacity to distort public opinion, influence voter attitudes, and jeopardise the democratic process itself. This paper critically examines the influence of AI on elections and democracy and underscores the need for robust regulatory frameworks and digital literacy initiatives to safeguard the democratic ethos in the age of AI.

Exploring the link between public health compliance and voting patterns in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted society and politics, particularly in the context of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Public officials' unpreparedness resulted in skepticism regarding government responses. Additionally, health inequities and political polarization profoundly influenced voter attitudes and behaviors.MethodsThis study employs statistical techniques to examine voting patterns, leveraging data from the 2021 African American COVID-19 Vaccine Polls (AACVP) alongside the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS). Specifically, it utilizes logistic regression and t-tests to dissect and understand the dichotomous electoral decisions made by voters between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election. The research analyzes the nuances of the electorate's behavior by considering many factors that may influence the binary vote decision.ResultsT-tests revealed significant mean differences in voting patterns based on public health compliance, with less compliant individuals more likely to vote for Trump and more compliant individuals favoring Biden. Logistic regression analysis showed a substantial statistical correlation between public health compliance and voting preferences, independent of confounding variables.DiscussionThe study confirmed that public health compliance during the pandemic impacted voting behavior, with a divide based on attitudes toward health measures. This reflected broader societal divisions, suggesting that public health behaviors are linked with political identities. Additionally, media sources and racial identity significantly influenced voting decisions.

Bordering and crisis narratives to illiberal ends

Abstract This paper draws lessons from security and populism studies to theorize how radical right-wing populism (RRWP) utilizes borders as a symbolic resource in crisis narratives to clearly frame an “Us” and a threatening “Them”. By analyzing the Hungarian Orbán regime’s evolving rhetoric on borders, the paper illustrates how populists employ crisis narratives not to mitigate, but exacerbate ontological insecurities, and thereby facilitate de-democratization by (re)shaping voter attitudes (cf. Homolar & Scholz 2019; Steele & Homolar 2019). The paper suggests that populists-in-power rely on crisis and bordering narratives beyond voter mobilization: such narratives are in fact designed to legitimize and affirm illiberal practices that undermine liberal democracy itself, and contribute to regime building. Border crises, and crisis politics, hence become a template for the manipulation of individuals’ security-of-being, and thereby a tool in the politics of reassurance and control at the broader, societal level.

Uncommon and nonpartisan: Antidemocratic attitudes in the American public

Democratic regimes flourish only when there is broad acceptance of an extensive set of norms and values. In the United States, fundamental democratic norms have recently come under threat from prominent Republican officials. We investigate whether this antidemocratic posture has spread from the elite level to rank-and-file partisans. Exploiting data from a massive repeated cross-sectional and panel survey ([Formula: see text] = 45,095 and 5,231 respectively), we find that overwhelming majorities of the public oppose violations of democratic norms, and virtually nobody supports partisan violence. This bipartisan consensus remains unchanged over time despite high levels of affective polarization and exposure to divisive elite rhetoric during the 2022 political campaign. Additionally, we find no evidence that elected officials' practice of election denialism encourages their constituents to express antidemocratic attitudes. Overall, these results suggest that the clear and present threat to American democracy comes from unilateral actions by political elites that stand in contrast to the views of their constituents. In closing, we consider the implications of the stark disconnect between the behavior of Republican elites and the attitudes of Republican voters.

Responsivität im polarisierten Pluralismus – Teil 2: Die Rolle der Parteien

In empirical research on political representation, the congruence between the attitudes of voters and those elected is considered a good measure of political responsiveness . Using the example of four selected political orientations, this article examines the congruence between the preferences of the candidates nominated by the six parties represented in the Bundestag and the population for the election years 2009 to 2021 . Different findings emerge for the four attitudes . Across all parties, there are large similarities between the political preferences of voters and politicians . The positions of voters and politicians on the left-right scale and their attitudes towards climate protection are rather similar, while a more marked difference characterizes the attitudes towards controlling migration . The preference for higher social spending or tax cuts lies somewhere in between . The differences between the political con- victions of SPD and Linke voters and politicians are more pronounced than those of the other parties . In addition to party preference, the level of education has the strongest influ- ence on the distance between voters and politicians .

Out of sight out of mind? Voter attitudes about cooperation with radical parties in Europe*

ABSTRACT Do voters view cooperation between mainstream and radical parties differently when it occurs at the European as opposed to national level, and if so, why? Using an original survey experiment with over 8000 respondents from Germany and Italy, this paper explores how voters react to cooperation with radical political parties at the national and EU levels once they are made aware that such cooperation is occurring. Our results show that voters react negatively to cooperation with radical political parties. We find that when voters are aware of such cooperation, they express similar levels of disapproval regardless of whether it occurs domestically or in the EU. These results have implications for our understanding of domestic and EU political processes, and point to the role of information as a fundamental factor enabling accountability at the European level.

Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to the Fox News Channel

Abstract Local exposure to conservative news causes judges to impose harsher criminal sentences. Our evidence comes from an instrumental variable analysis, where randomness in television channel positioning across localities induces exogenous variation in exposure to the Fox News Channel. These treatment data on news viewership are taken to outcome data on almost seven million criminal sentencing decisions in the United States for the years 2005–17. Higher Fox News viewership increases incarceration length, and the effect is stronger for Black defendants and for drug-related crimes. We can rule out changes in the behaviour of police, prosecutors or potential offenders as significant drivers. Consistent with changes in voter attitudes as the key mechanism, the effect on sentencing harshness is observed for elected (but not appointed) judges. Fox News viewership also increases self-reported beliefs about the importance of drug crime as a social problem.

“They own our country!” voter reaction to anti-China rhetoric: The case of the presidential election in Brazil in 2018

How do voters react to a presidential candidate who warns against investments from a foreign country? This study examines voter reactions to a presidential candidate warning against foreign Chinese investments, using the Brazilian 2018 campaign as a case study. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro repeatedly criticised Chinese acquisitions of national assets, particularly in natural resource extraction. By analysing geographically referenced data on Chinese investments and electoral data, I find that Bolsonaro's electoral success increased with higher levels of Chinese acquisitions, especially those related to natural resources. Post-election surveys also confirm a link between voting for Bolsonaro and rejecting Chinese investment. These findings highlight the connection between right-wing voters' fears of globalisation and the rise of far-right candidates. The study contributes to understanding the role of ideology and nationalism in shaping voter attitudes towards foreign investment during a presidential campaign.