Grounded Ice Volume Research Articles

Talus rock glaciers in the Cairngorm Mountains

ABSTRACT Although several relict talus rock glaciers (TRGs) of Lateglacial age have been identified in the British Isles, all have been refuted by some authors and their absence attributed to the lack of permafrost. The evidence provided by palaeoclimatic reconstructions and periglacial features, however, implies that Lateglacial permafrost was present throughout Scotland during the Loch Lomond Stade (LLS; ∼12.9–11.7 ka). Across much of the Scottish Highlands, the absence of Lateglacial TRGs is attributable to occupation of potential sites by glaciers during the LLS. In the Cairngorms, however, where limited snowfall at that time left some corries glacier-free, there is convincing evidence for TRG formation. Three examples illustrating different degrees of TRG development are described; all occur at high-level (>840 m) sites that remained glacier-free during the LLS, and all lack plausible alternative explanations. The apparent scarcity of relict TRGs even in the Cairngorms may reflect the development of ‘cold’ permafrost and/or a lengthy time lag between permafrost development and the accumulation of a sufficient volume and thickness of ground ice to permit permafrost creep and deformation of an overlying mantle of bouldery debris. In consequence, relict TRGs may occur only at favourable high-level sites where permafrost developed earliest.

Relative sea level response to mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sediment loading along the Great Barrier Reef margin

The continental shelf along northeastern Australia is the world's largest mixed carbonate-siliciclastic passive margin and the location of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Following sea-level transgression during the last deglaciation, extensive sediment was deposited along the GBR due to neritic carbonate deposition (including shelf edge reefs, Holocene reefs and Halimeda bioherms) and fluvial discharge of terrigenous siliciclastic sediments. Such sediment loading can alter local relative sea level (RSL) by several metres through the sediment isostatic adjustment (SIA) process, a signal that is poorly constrained at the GBR. In this study, we used a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to develop an ensemble-based sediment loading history for the GBR since Marine Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2). A Bayesian style framework is adopted to calibrate the sediment history ensemble and GIA model parameters using a sea-level database. According to our results, 1853.7 Gt (1613.1-2078.7 Gt, 95% confidence interval) of sediment have been deposited across the GBR since MIS 2 (28 ka BP), causing spatially variable relative sea-level change with the highest magnitude (0.9-1.1 m) found in the outer shelf of the southern central GBR (18.4-21.6∘ S). Because the SIA-induced RSL rise is unrelated to ice mass loss, failing to correct for this signal will lead to systematic overestimation of grounded ice volume by up to ∼4.3 × 105 km3 during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, we found that spatial variation in sediment loading and coastal environment may explain the different RSL history documented by published fossil coral reef records from Noggin Pass and Hydrographer's Passage. These results highlight the importance of considering SIA for any postglacial sea-level studies adjacent to large sediment systems. Lastly, by quantifying both the GIA and SIA signals, we provide a spatially and temporally complete RSL reconstruction that is well-suited to be used as a boundary condition to study the evolution of the GBR shelf and slope sedimentary system.

Towards accurate quantification of ice content in permafrost of the Central Andes – Part 2: An upscaling strategy of geophysical measurements to the catchment scale at two study sites

Abstract. With ongoing climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand how much water is stored as ground ice in areas with extensive permafrost occurrence, as well as how the regional water balance may alter in response to the potential generation of meltwater from permafrost degradation. However, field-based data on permafrost in remote and mountainous areas such as the South American Andes are scarce. Most current ground ice estimates are based on broadly generalized assumptions such as volume–area scaling and mean ground ice content estimates of rock glaciers. In addition, ground ice contents in permafrost areas outside of rock glaciers are usually not considered, resulting in a significant uncertainty regarding the volume of ground ice in the Andes and its hydrological role. In Part 1 of this contribution, Hilbich et al. (2022a) present an extensive geophysical data set based on electrical resistivity tomography and refraction seismic tomography surveys to detect and quantify ground ice of different landforms and surface types in several study regions in the semi-arid Andes of Chile and Argentina with the aim to contribute to the reduction of this data scarcity. In Part 2 we focus on the development of a strategy for the upscaling of geophysics-based ground ice quantification to an entire catchment to estimate the total ground ice volume (and its approximate water equivalent) in the study areas. In addition to the geophysical data, the upscaling approach is based on a permafrost distribution model and classifications of surface and landform types. In this paper, we introduce our upscaling strategy, and we demonstrate that the estimation of large-scale ground ice volumes can be improved by including (i) non-rock-glacier permafrost occurrences and (ii) field evidence through a large number of geophysical surveys and ground truthing information. The results of our study indicate that (i) conventional ground ice estimates for rock-glacier-dominated catchments without in situ data may significantly overestimate ground ice contents and (ii) substantial volumes of ground ice may also be present in catchments where rock glaciers are lacking.

Contrasting geophysical signatures of a relict and an intact Andean rock glacier

Abstract. In semi-arid Chile, rock glaciers cover more surface area than glaciers and are potentially important water reserves. To understand their current and future hydrological role, it is necessary to characterize their internal structure (e.g. internal boundaries and ice, air, water and rock content). In this study, we present the results and interpretations of profiles of electrical resistivity and refraction seismic tomography collected on two contrasting rock glaciers in the Chilean Andes located at the headwaters of the Elqui River within the Estero Derecho nature reserve. These geophysical measurements are interpreted both independently and jointly through a scheme of petrophysical four-phase inversion. These first in situ measurements in Estero Derecho confirm that El Ternero (intact rock glacier) contains a significant volume of ground ice, while El Jote contains little to no ice (relict rock glacier). Within our study, we highlight the strong differences in the geophysical responses between intact and relict rock glaciers and propose a diagnostic model that differentiates between them.

Mountain Permafrost Hydrology—A Practical Review Following Studies from the Andes

Climate change is expected to reduce water security in arid mountain regions around the world. Vulnerable water supplies in semi-arid zones, such as the Dry Andes, are projected to be further stressed through changes in air temperature, precipitation patterns, sublimation, and evapotranspiration. Together with glacier recession this will negatively impact water availability. While glacier hydrology has been the focus of scientific research for a long time, relatively little is known about the hydrology of mountain permafrost. In contrast to glaciers, where ice is at the surface and directly affected by atmospheric conditions, the behaviour of permafrost and ground ice is more complex, as other factors, such as variable surficial sediments, vegetation cover, or shallow groundwater flow, influence heat transfer and time scales over which changes occur. The effects of permafrost on water flow paths have been studied in lowland areas, with limited research in the mountains. An understanding of how permafrost degradation and associated melt of ground ice (where present) contribute to streamflow in mountain regions is still lacking. Mountain permafrost, particularly rock glaciers, is often conceptualized as a (frozen) water reservoir; however, rates of permafrost ground ice melt and the contribution to water budgets are rarely considered. Additionally, ground ice and permafrost are not directly visible at the surface; hence, uncertainties related to their three-dimensional extent are orders of magnitude higher than those for glaciers. Ground ice volume within permafrost must always be approximated, further complicating estimations of its response to climate change. This review summarizes current understanding of mountain permafrost hydrology, discusses challenges and limitations, and provides suggestions for areas of future research, using the Dry Andes as a basis.

Geomorphology and InSAR-Tracked Surface Displacements in an Ice-Rich Yedoma Landscape

Ice-ridge Yedoma terrain is susceptible to vertical surface displacements by thaw and refreeze of ground ice, and geomorphological processes of mass wasting, erosion and sedimentation. Here we explore the relation between a 3 year data set of InSAR measurements of vertical surface displacements during the thaw season, and geomorphological features in an area in the Indigirka Lowlands, Northeast Siberia. The geomorphology is presented in a geomorphological map, based on interpretation of high resolution visible spectrum satellite imagery, field surveys and available data from paleo-environmental research. The main landforms comprise overlapping drained thaw lake basins and lakes, erosion remnants of Late Pleistocene Yedoma deposits, and a floodplain of a high-sinuosity anastomosing river with ancient river terrace remnants. The spatial distribution of drained thaw lake basins and Yedoma erosion remnants in the study area and its surroundings is influenced by neotectonic movements. The 3 years of InSAR measurement include 2 years of high snowfall and extreme river flooding (2017–2018) and 1 year of modest snowfall, early spring and warm summer (2019). The magnitude of surface displacements varies among the years, and show considerable spatial variation. Distinct spatial clusters of displacement trajectories can be discerned, which relate to geomorphological processes and ground ice conditions. Strong subsidence occurred in particular in 2019. In the wet year of 2017, marked heave occurred at Yedoma plateau surfaces, likely by ice accumulation at the top of the permafrost driven by excess precipitation. The spatial variability of surface displacements is high. This is explored by statistical analysis, and is attributed to the interaction of various processes. Next to ground ice volume change, also sedimentation (peat, colluvial deposition) and shrinkage or swelling of soils with changing water content may have contributed. Tussock tundra areas covered by the extreme 2017 and 2018 spring floods show high subsidence rates and an increase of midsummer thaw depths. We hypothesize that increased flood heights along Siberian lowland rivers potentially induce deeper thaw and subsidence on floodplain margins, and also lowers the drainage thresholds of thaw lakes. Both mechanisms tend to increase floodplain area. This may increase CH4 emission from floodplains, but also may enhance carbon storage in floodplain sedimentary environments.

Characteristic, changes and impacts of permafrost on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is the largest high-altitude permafrost zone in the mid-latitudes. Due to the climate warming, permafrost degradation on the QTP has been widely recorded in the past decades. Since it greatly affects the East Asian monsoon, and even the global climate system, it is extremely important to understand permafrost current state, changes and its impacts. Based on literature reviews and some new data, this paper summarizes the characteristics of the current state permafrost on the QTP, including the active layer thickness (ALT), the spatial distribution of permafrost, permafrost temperature and thickness, as well as the ground ice and soil carbon storage in permafrost region. The new results showed that the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground area (excluding glaciers and lakes) is 1.06 million square kilometers and 1.45 million square kilometers on the QTP. The sub-stable, transitional, and unstable permafrost accounts for 30.4%, 22.1% and 22.6% of the total permafrost area. The permafrost thickness varies greatly among topography, with the maximum value in mountainous areas, which could be deeper than 200 m, while the minimum value in the flat areas and mountain valleys, which could be less than 60 m. The mean active layer thickness of the permafrost on the QTP is 2.3 m, with 80% of the permafrost regions ranges from 0.8 m to 3.5 m. During 1980 to 2015, soil temperature at 0−10, 10−40, 40−100, 100−200 cm increased at a rate of 0.439, 0.449, 0.396, and 0.259°C/ 10 a, respectively. From 2004 to 2018, the increasing rate of the soil temperature at the bottom of active layer was 0.486°C/ 10 a. These results show that the permafrost degradation has been accelerating. The permafrost degradation largely reduces the soil moisture. The ground ice volume of the permafrost is estimated up to 1.27×104 km3 (liquid water equivalent). The soil organic carbon in the upper 2 m of permafrost region is about 17 Pg; there is a large uncertainty in this estimation however due to the great heterogeneities in the soil column. Although the permafrost ecosystem is a carbon sink at the present, it is possible that it will shift to a carbon source due to the loss of soil organic carbon along with permafrost degradation. Overall, this paper shows that the plateau permafrost has undergone remarkable degradation during past decades, which are clearly proven by the increasing ALTs and ground temperature. Most of the permafrost on the QTP belongs to the unstable permafrost, meaning that permafrost over TPQ is very sensitive to climate warming. The permafrost interacts closely with water, soil, greenhouse gases emission and biosphere. Therefore, the permafrost degradation greatly affects the regional hydrology, ecology and even the global climate system. This paper also proposes approaches and methods to study the interactive mechanisms between permafrost and climate change, and the results can serve as a scientific basis for environmental protection, engineering design and construction in cold regions.

Marine ice sheet instability and ice shelf buttressing of the Minch Ice Stream, northwest Scotland

Abstract. Uncertainties in future sea level projections are dominated by our limited understanding of the dynamical processes that control instabilities of marine ice sheets. The last deglaciation of the British–Irish Ice Sheet offers a valuable example to examine these processes. The Minch Ice Stream, which drained a large proportion of ice from the northwest sector of the British–Irish Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation, is constrained with abundant empirical data which can be used to inform, validate, and analyse numerical ice sheet simulations. We use BISICLES, a higher-order ice sheet model, to examine the dynamical processes that controlled the retreat of the Minch Ice Stream. We perform simplified experiments of the retreat of this ice stream under an idealised climate forcing to isolate the effect of marine ice sheet processes, simulating retreat from the continental shelf under constant “warm” surface mass balance and sub-ice-shelf melt. The model simulates a slowdown of retreat as the ice stream becomes laterally confined at the mouth of the Minch strait between mainland Scotland and the Isle of Lewis, resulting in a marine setting similar to many large tidewater glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. At this stage of the simulation, the presence of an ice shelf becomes a more important control on grounded ice volume, providing buttressing to upstream ice. Subsequently, the presence of a reverse slope inside the Minch strait produces an acceleration in retreat, leading to a “collapsed” state, even when the climate returns to the initial “cold” conditions. Our simulations demonstrate the importance of the marine ice sheet instability and ice shelf buttressing during the deglaciation of parts of the British–Irish Ice Sheet. We conclude that geological data could be applied to further constrain these processes in ice sheet models used for projecting the future of contemporary ice sheets.

An Estimation of Ground Ice Volumes in Permafrost Layers in Northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The ground ice content in permafrost serves as one of the dominant properties of permafrost for the study of global climate change, ecology, hydrology and engineering construction in cold regions. This paper initially attempts to assess the ground ice volume in permafrost layers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by considering landform types, the corresponding lithological composition, and the measured water content in various regions. An approximation demonstrating the existence of many similarities in lithological composition and water content within a unified landform was established during the calculations. Considerable knowledge of the case study area, here called the Source Area of the Yellow (Huanghe) River (SAYR) in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has been accumulated related to permafrost and fresh water resources during the past 40 years. Considering the permafrost distribution, extent, spatial distribution of landform types, the ground ice volume at the depths of 3.0–10.0 m below the ground surface was estimated based on the data of 101 boreholes from field observations and geological surveys in different types of landforms in the permafrost region of the SAYR. The total ground ice volume in permafrost layers at the depths of 3.0–10.0 m was approximately (51.68 ± 18.81) km3, and the ground ice volume per unit volume was (0.31 ± 0.11) m3/m3. In the horizontal direction, the ground ice content was higher in the landforms of lacustrine-marshland plains and alluvial-lacustrine plains, and the lower ground ice content was distributed in the erosional platforms and alluvial-proluvial plains. In the vertical direction, the volume of ground ice was relatively high in the top layers (especially near the permafrost table) and at the depths of 7.0–8.0 m. This calculation method will be used in the other areas when the necessary information is available, including landform type, borehole data, and measured water content.

Оценка объемов подземных льдов в горной системе Тянь-Шаня

Оценка объемов подземных льдов в горной системе Тянь-Шаня

Estimate of the volume of ground ice in the Tien Shan mountains.

Estimate of the volume of ground ice in the Tien Shan mountains.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

AbstractWest Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice‐ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

PeRL: a circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake database

Abstract. Ponds and lakes are abundant in Arctic permafrost lowlands. They play an important role in Arctic wetland ecosystems by regulating carbon, water, and energy fluxes and providing freshwater habitats. However, ponds, i.e., waterbodies with surface areas smaller than 1. 0 × 104 m2, have not been inventoried on global and regional scales. The Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database presents the results of a circum-Arctic effort to map ponds and lakes from modern (2002–2013) high-resolution aerial and satellite imagery with a resolution of 5 m or better. The database also includes historical imagery from 1948 to 1965 with a resolution of 6 m or better. PeRL includes 69 maps covering a wide range of environmental conditions from tundra to boreal regions and from continuous to discontinuous permafrost zones. Waterbody maps are linked to regional permafrost landscape maps which provide information on permafrost extent, ground ice volume, geology, and lithology. This paper describes waterbody classification and accuracy, and presents statistics of waterbody distribution for each site. Maps of permafrost landscapes in Alaska, Canada, and Russia are used to extrapolate waterbody statistics from the site level to regional landscape units. PeRL presents pond and lake estimates for a total area of 1. 4 × 106 km2 across the Arctic, about 17 % of the Arctic lowland ( < 300 m a.s.l.) land surface area. PeRL waterbodies with sizes of 1. 0 × 106 m2 down to 1. 0 × 102 m2 contributed up to 21 % to the total water fraction. Waterbody density ranged from 1. 0 × 10 to 9. 4 × 101 km−2. Ponds are the dominant waterbody type by number in all landscapes representing 45–99 % of the total waterbody number. The implementation of PeRL size distributions in land surface models will greatly improve the investigation and projection of surface inundation and carbon fluxes in permafrost lowlands. Waterbody maps, study area boundaries, and maps of regional permafrost landscapes including detailed metadata are available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.868349.

The evolution of a thermokarst-lake landscape: Late Quaternary permafrost degradation and stabilization in interior Alaska

Thermokarst processes characterize a variety of ice-rich permafrost terrains and often lead to lake formation. The long-term evolution of thermokarst landscapes and the stability and longevity of lakes depend upon climate, vegetation and ground conditions, including the volume of excess ground ice and its distribution. The current lake status of thermokarst-lake landscapes and their future trajectories under climate warming are better understood in the light of their long-term development. We studied the lake-rich southern marginal upland of the Yukon Flats (northern interior Alaska) using dated lake-sediment cores, observations of river-cut exposures, and remotely-sensed data. The region features thick (up to 40m) Quaternary deposits (mainly loess) that contain massive ground ice. Two of three studied lakes formed ~11,000–12,000calyr BP through inferred thermokarst processes, and fire may have played a role in initiating thermokarst development. From ~9000calyr BP, all lakes exhibited steady sedimentation, and pollen stratigraphies are consistent with regional patterns. The current lake expansion rates are low (0 to <7cmyr−1 shoreline retreat) compared with other regions (~30cmyr−1 or more). This thermokarst lake-rich region does not show evidence of extensive landscape lowering by lake drainage, nor of multiple lake generations within a basin. However, LiDAR images reveal linear “corrugations” (>5m amplitude), deep thermo-erosional gullies, and features resembling lake drainage channels, suggesting that highly dynamic surface processes have previously shaped the landscape. Evidently, widespread early Holocene permafrost degradation and thermokarst lake initiation were followed by lake longevity and landscape stabilization, the latter possibly related to establishment of dense forest cover. Partial or complete drainage of three lakes in 2013 reveals that there is some contemporary landscape dynamism. Holocene landscape evolution in the study area differs from that described from other thermokarst-affected regions; regional responses to future environmental change may be equally individualistic.

Interactive evolution of multiple water-ice reservoirs on Mars: Insights from hydrogen isotope compositions

Remote sensing data from orbiter missions have proposed that ground ice may currently exist on Mars, although the volume is still uncertain. Recent analyses of Martian meteorites have suggested that the water reservoirs have at least three distinct hydrogen isotope compositions (D/H ratios): primordial and high D/H ratios, which are approximately the same and six times that of ocean water on Earth, respectively, and a newly identified intermediate D/H ratio, which is approximately two to three times higher than that in ocean water on Earth. We calculate the evolution of the D/H ratios and the volumes of the water reservoirs on Mars by modeling the exchange of hydrogen isotopes between multiple water reservoirs and the atmospheric escape. The D/H ratio is slightly higher in the topmost thin surface-ice layer than that in the atmosphere because of isotopic fractionation by sublimation, whereas the water-ice reservoir just below the exchangeable topmost surface layer retains the intermediate D/H signature found in Martian meteorites. We propose two possible models for constraining the volume of the ground ice considering the observed D/H ratios and geomorphological estimates of Paleo-oceans. The first assumes that the atmospheric loss is dominated by the Jeans escape. In this case, the volume of ground ice should be larger than the total volume of the observable surface ice that mainly occurs as polar layered ice deposits. The other model assumes diffusion-limited atmospheric loss in which the interactive evolution of the multiple water reservoirs naturally accounts for the observed D/H ratios. In this scenario, a large volume of ground ice does not necessarily exist currently on Mars as opposed to the perspective view proposed on the basis of recent orbiter missions.

Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

Abstract. A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion – termed "transient calibration" – produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a−1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a−1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian

Reconstructing the historical behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is essential for understanding and predicting climatic interactions, ice sheet sensitivities, and sea level contributions. Furthermore, to interpret such reconstructions with any degree of confidence, meaningful uncertainty estimates are required. Working toward this goal, this article presents results from a large-ensemble data-constrained study of Antarctic evolution over the Last Glacial cycle.Ice sheet chronologies have been generated using a 3-D glacial systems model that includes sheet/stream/shelf flow; a parametrized basal drag coefficient (accounting for sub-grid topographic roughness, sediment likelihood, and systematic model-to-observation thickness misfits); a sub-grid grounding-line flux parametrization; a visco-elastic bedrock response component; parametrized climate forcing; separate shelf and tidewater calving treatments; and a physically-motivated, empirically derived, sub-shelf melt component. There are 31 ensemble parameters to capture uncertainties in the glacial cycle climate, mass-balance processes, and ice dynamics. Once generated, the ensemble of model runs is constrained using a suite of observational data (including constraints on relative sea level, past ice thickness and grounding line retreat data-points, as well as present-day ice volumes and configuration) and an evaluation methodology that produces a misfit-to-observations score for each run. Assuming variants of a Gaussian error model, the scores are used to generate probability distributions for the past evolution of the ice sheet.In our ensemble-based analysis the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of Antarctic ice volume occurs at ∼25–24 ka. The LGM ice volume excess relative to present-day is likely between 5.6 and 14.3 m equivalent sea level (mESL), and with less confidence >10 mESL. There is little change in the grounded ice volume from 24 ka until 17–16 ka at which time widespread deglaciation commences. The Ross and Weddell Sea sectors are the largest sources of ice mass loss. The major period of grounding line retreat in the Weddell Sea sector, resulting in the present-day Ronne–Filchner shelf system, occurs after 10 ka; the grounding line in the Ross Sea sector start its major retreat phase after 12 ka. There is no significant contribution (<1.8 mESL) to meltwater pulse 1a.During the Eemian, the modelled Antarctic Ice Sheet has a minimal ice volume at 114 ka contributing ∼2 mESL relative to present-day. The mass loss is principally due to a major retreat of the grounding line in the Siple Coast sector of the Ross Sea.We present standard deviation plots of the ensemble results for present day and at the LGM. These plots highlight geographic areas that would most benefit from additional constraint and therefore offer priorities and guidance for future field campaigns.

A model study of the effect of climate and sea-level change on the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to 2100

Due to a scarcity of observations and its long memory of uncertain past climate, the Antarctic Ice Sheet remains a largely unknown factor in the prediction of global sea level change. As the history of the ice sheet plays a key role in its future evolution, in this study we model the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyr ago) until the year 2100 with the ice-dynamical model ANICE. We force the model with different temperature, surface mass balance and sea-level records to investigate the importance of these different aspects for the evolution of the ice sheet. Additionally, we compare the model output from 21 kyr ago until the present with observations to assess model performance in simulating the total grounded ice volume and the evolution of different regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although there are some clear limitations of the model, we conclude that sea-level change has driven the deglaciation of the ice sheet, whereas future temperature change and the history of the ice sheet are the primary cause of changes in ice volume in the future. We estimate the change in grounded ice volume between its maximum (around 15 kyr ago) and the present-day to be between 8.4 and 12.5 m sea-level equivalent and the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to the global mean sea level in 2100, with respect to 2000, to be −22 to 63 mm.

Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model

Abstract. To date, assimilation of observations into large-scale ice models has consisted predominantly of time-independent inversions of surface velocities for basal traction, bed elevation, or ice stiffness, and has relied primarily on analytically derived adjoints of glaciological stress balance models. To overcome limitations of such "snapshot" inversions – i.e., their inability to assimilate time-dependent data for the purpose of constraining transient flow states, or to produce initial states with minimum artificial drift and suitable for time-dependent simulations – we have developed an adjoint of a time-dependent parallel glaciological flow model. The model implements a hybrid shallow shelf–shallow ice stress balance, solves the continuity equation for ice thickness evolution, and can represent the floating, fast-sliding, and frozen bed regimes of a marine ice sheet. The adjoint is generated by a combination of analytic methods and the use of algorithmic differentiation (AD) software. Several experiments are carried out with idealized geometries and synthetic observations, including inversion of time-dependent surface elevations for past thicknesses, and simultaneous retrieval of basal traction and topography from surface data. Flexible generation of the adjoint for a range of independent uncertain variables is exemplified through sensitivity calculations of grounded ice volume to changes in basal melting of floating and basal sliding of grounded ice. The results are encouraging and suggest the feasibility, using real observations, of improved ice sheet state estimation and comprehensive transient sensitivity assessments.

Glaciology and geological signature of the Last Glacial Maximum Antarctic ice sheet

Dynamical changes in contemporary ice sheets account for significant proportions of their current rates of mass loss, but assessing whether or not these processes are a natural part of ice-sheet evolution requires inference from palaeo-glaciological records. However, a robust mechanism for translating sparse geological data into meaningful interpretations of past glacier dynamics at the continental scale is lacking, since geological archives can be ambiguous, and often their chronology is only poorly constrained. To address this, we combine the interpretation of high-resolution Antarctic ice sheet model results with continent-wide geological evidence pertinent to the dynamical configuration of the ice sheet during the last, and possibly preceding, glacial maxima. We first focus on the thermal regime of the ice sheet, its pattern and velocity of flow, variability in likely subglacial erosion and sediment transport, and how these characteristics evolve during glacial transitions. We show that rapid basal sliding was restricted to discrete outlets that eroded and advected sediment toward and across the continental shelf primarily during the early stages of advance and retreat of the ice sheet, highlighting the need to consider time-transgressive behaviour in the interpretation of geological archives. Secondly, we present new modelling that attempts to improve the fit of our numerical model to geologically-based reconstructions in the Ross Sea. By accounting for locally-enhanced ablation in McMurdo Sound, our new simulation achieves a much closer fit to empirically-derived flow patterns than previously. Growth of the modelled Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet takes place primarily by marine ice accretion in the major embayments, as a consequence of cooler ocean temperatures and reduced sub-ice-shelf melting, and at its maximal extent represents a grounded ice volume excess above present of approximately 8.3 m sea-level equivalent. This figure thus provides an upper bound on the possible Antarctic contribution to deglacial meltwater pulses.