Profit Volatility Research Articles

Capital structure: Its effects on earnings volatility, cash flows, and financial performance in commercial banks

This study aimed to clarify the effect of capital structure on earnings volatility and cash flows in the commercial banking sector. The research focused on all 15 banks listed on the Amman Stock Exchange, and data were gathered from their financial statements between 2018 and 2022. The study employed multiple regression analysis to assess the data and test hypotheses. Previous studies have shown mixed results, with some finding a positive relationship between capital structure and financial performance, while others presented opposing views. The findings of this study provide statistical evidence that the debt-to-asset ratio (DTA) positively influenced operating cash flows and their volatility, while negatively affecting profits and their volatility. Additionally, the debt-to-equity ratio (DETE) positively impacted operating cash flows, their volatility, and profit volatility. These results suggest that banks should aim for a balanced capital structure to maintain stable profits and cash flows over time. This requires careful consideration of risks, regulatory requirements, market conditions, and the cost of capital. A balanced approach, involving both debt and equity financing, helps banks manage the risks of fluctuating cash flows and profits.

Token sales design under network effect

AbstractThis paper explores the use of initial coin offerings (ICOs) as a means of fundraising for companies through the issuance of blockchain‐based tokens. Specifically, we investigate how a company can implement ICOs and issue tokens supported by its products while taking into account the presence of network effects. We examine several aspects of ICOs, including the impacts of network effect on the company's optimal token sales design, such as the optimal token issuance price, the ICO cap (which refers to the number of tokens to be issued), and the amount of funds raised. We also consider the cases of deterministic and uncertain network effects, the impacts of limited speculators purchasing tokens during the ICO period, the comparison between ICOs and traditional bank financing, and the impact of ICO cost. The research unfolds in five key parts. Firstly, leveraging a baseline model, we derive equilibrium outcomes and the optimal token sales design, discerning the impact of deterministic and uncertain network effects. Notably, network effect uncertainty consistently benefits companies, ensuring profit resilience despite potential challenges, although in the face of such uncertainty, the ICO company may decrease the raised fund. Secondly, we investigate the consequences of a limited number of speculators in the ICO landscape, finding that adjustments on the token sales design are not required under low expected network effect. Thirdly, a comparative study between ICOs and bank financing reveals distinctive advantages of ICOs. ICOs prove capable of decreasing profit volatility while maintaining an equivalent profit compared to traditional bank financing. This insight offers valuable guidance for companies seeking optimal financing methods aligned with their risk preferences. Lastly, the impact of ICO cost on outcomes and token sales design is scrutinized. Contrary to expectations, ICO cost does not uniformly lead to an increase in the ICO cap, underscoring the nuanced relationship between costs and fundraising strategies.

An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling

The greatest source of failure in portfolio analytics is not individual models that perform poorly, but rather an inability to integrate models quantitatively across management functions. The separable components of age–period–cohort models provide a framework for integrated credit risk modeling across an organization. Using a panel data structure, credit risk scores can be integrated with an APC framework using either logistic regression or machine learning. Such APC scores for default, payoff, and other key rates fit naturally into forward-looking cash flow estimates. Given an economic scenario, every applicant at the time of origination can be assigned profit and profit volatility estimates so that underwriting can truly be account-level. This process optimizes the most fallible part of underwriting, which is setting cutoff scores and assigning loan pricing and terms. This article provides a summary of applications of APC models across portfolio management roles, with a description of how to create the models to be directly integrated. As a consequence, cash flow calculations are available for each account, and cutoff scores can be set directly from portfolio financial targets.

DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK HEDGING STRATEGIES

The purpose of the study is to develop the theory of hedging, generalize approaches to the formation of effective risk hedging strategies, and provide recommendations for the implementation of international banks' experience in Ukrainian practice. It is proved that in the process of choosing effective strategies, it is advisable to distinguish three types of financial risk hedging: a) operational hedging (balance sheet) to ensure operational flexibility; b) market hedging (external), which involves the use of derivatives as instruments to hedge profit volatility; c) contract hedging (contractual clauses, embedded derivatives. Based on the analysis of the reports of 250 banks, it was found that Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup are the market makers in the most developed US futures market. Horizontal analysis of the balance sheets of these banks showed that although the share of derivatives designated as hedging instruments is insignificant (less than 1%) relative to term contracts recognized as trading instruments, the hedging effect is significantly higher than the gains on the trading portfolio. It was found that in international practice, the dominant direction is the hedging of interest rate risk (the share of which varies between banks from 42.52% to 61.26%), in the structure of hedging instruments, interest rate swaps prevail. The share of currency derivatives varies from 18.67% to 41.45%. Interest rate risk is hedged by over-the-counter bilateral term contracts for active operations, currency risk hedging equally covers the risks of passive and active operations. The regression analysis revealed that private credit and trading assets have an inverse effect on regional hedging exposure, and debt instruments have a direct effect. The study provides a basis for assessing the potential of using innovative risk-hedging instruments by Ukrainian banks.

Cultural determinants of capital structure in Indonesian banking

Capital structure decisions play a crucial role in shaping the financial landscape of companies, especially in developing countries. This study examines the cultural determinants of capital structure in Indonesian banking within the macroeconomic context from 2013 to 2022. The capital structure represents the mix of various company funding methods, impacting its value and influencing stakeholders. The debate on how the interplay of debt and assets affects a company's value continues, with the determining factors of capital structure still being explored in financial studies. Using STATA V.17, this research analyzes 30 banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, with leverage as the dependent variable. Financial ratios, including liquidity ratio, profit volatility, growth opportunities, bank size, and external macroeconomic variables such as inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are examined as potential influencers on the capital structure. The results reveal high leverage in Indonesian banks, with variations in financial approaches. Return on assets, growth opportunities, and inflation exhibit a positive and significant relationship with leverage, while profit volatility, tangibility, bank size, and GDP show a negative and significant relationship. The research suggests limitations in scope, recommending including all Indonesian banking companies and additional external macroeconomic variables like exchange and interest rates.

Climate Change Exposure and Bankruptcy Risk

AbstractThis research documents that a firm's bankruptcy risk increases with its climate change exposure. This study further investigates the underlying mechanisms and finds that this effect is stronger for firms with lower operating cash flows or tighter financial constraints. Consistent with the agency theory of debt, the evidence suggests that improving the protection of creditor rights can mitigate the adverse impact of climate change. In addition, two distinct sets of quasi‐natural experiments are exploited to establish causality and eliminate alternative explanations. Specifically, the positive effect of climate change exposure on bankruptcy risk is weaker after the 2015 Paris Agreement, which raised public awareness of climate issues, and stronger for firms headquartered in countries that are more severely affected by natural disasters. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that the main effect is more pronounced among loss firms, firms with higher levels of asset tangibility, cash flow volatility or profit volatility, and firms with worse solvency performance. Overall, the collective evidence indicates that climate change has real consequences for firm financial conditions.

Pengaruh Kebijakan Deviden terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham

This study aims to examine the effect of dividend policy on stock price volatility. Dividend policy is measured through the proxies of dividend payout ratio, dividend yield and dividend per share. This research also adds control variables in the form of profit volatility and company growth. Stock price volatility was measured using Baskin's Model (1989). The sample used in this study is 49 financial sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2014-2019 and have met the qualifications of the research criteria. Determination of the sample is determined by purposive sampling method which produces 294 annual report data of companies engaged in the financial sector. This study uses panel data regression. This study was conducted with the aim of examining the effect of dividend policy variables with the proxies of dividend payout ratio, dividend yield and dividend per share on stock price volatility. This research resulted in dividend payout ratio, dividend per share and dividend yield significant negative effect on stock price volatility.

Analysis of the effect of assets structure, earning volatility and financial flexibility on capital structure in consumer goods industry sector companies on the Indonesia stock exchange

PurposeCapital structure is an important factor for the company because it will be directly related to the financial condition of the company. This study aims to determine the effect of asset structure, earning volatility, and financial flexibility on capital structure.Design/methodology/approachThe population in this study was 52 companies in the consumer goods industry sector on the Indonesia stock exchange (IDX) and a sample of 39 companies obtained by purposive sampling method. The research method used in this study is multiple linear regression analysis using Eviews software.FindingsThe test results in the study show that asset structure and financial flexibility have a positive effect on capital structure, while earning volatility does not affect capital structure in companies in the consumer goods industry sector on the IDX.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this research can contribute to the addition of knowledge in the field of accounting, especially regarding the capital structure. Company management can use the results of this research as a reference and consideration to find out the factors that affect the capital structure so that company management can still maintain the company's survival and improve company performance.Practical implicationsThe results of this study can contribute to the addition of knowledge in the field of accounting, especially regarding capital structure. Company management can use the results of this research as a reference and consideration to determine the factors that affect the capital structure so that company management can still maintain the survival of the company and improve company performance.Social implicationsThis study only uses the variables of asset structure, financial flexibility and earning volatility as independent variables. Further research is recommended to consider the use of other variables that can affect capital structure and if using the same variable is expected to use research objects that have stable or increasing asset and income values, so that asset structure variables and profit volatility can show significant results and influences.Originality/valueThis study is one of the few studies that examines how the effect of asset structure, profit volatility and financial flexibility on capital structure in companies in the consumer goods industry sector on the IDX. Company management must pay attention to the composition of the capital structure as well as possible and make careful planning and the right decisions so as to produce a capital structure that can provide profits.

Analysis of firm performance in presence of oil price shocks: Importance of skilled management

This paper adopts an innovative technique to separate the impacts of fuel shocks on supply, customer needs, and inventory needs which reveals that the competence of managers have a significant but fluctuating effect on business performance under such circumstances. Manufacturing firms can reap maximum benefits from employing high-ability managers during oil shocks. Managers with exceptional skills exhibit remarkable outcomes in the energy, agricultural, forestry, fishing, and service industries, especially when unfavorable economic consequences accompany oil supply shocks. On the other hand, capable managers fall short in the energy, mining, building, retail, and service sectors during fuel usage need shocks representative of financial expansion. The connection between significant outperformance and underperformance during fuel supply and need shocks is linked to energy companies that have high-ability managers. To protect against fuel value declines, these astute managers will likely employ more aggressive hedging plans to mitigate economic stress or limit profit volatility. Similarly, experienced managers in other sectors may also take measures against the volatility of oil prices by diversifying their supply or using derivatives. Notably, fuel consumption demand shocks are more expensive than supply shocks and vice versa.

Pengaruh Tata Kelola Perusahaan Terhadap Volatilitas Laba (Studi Empiris Pada Perusahaan IPO di Indonesia)

This study aims to determine the effect of institutional ownership, managerial ownership, and the proportion of independent commissioners on profit volatility in companies carrying out Initial Public Offerings (IPO) during 2018 - 2020 with sales growth as a control variable. The research method uses quantitative methods. The population in this study are companies that carry out Initial Public Offerings (IPO) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange. Based on the sample selection criteria, a sample of 152 companies was obtained. The data analysis technique used was descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption test, F test and T test. The results showed that institutional ownership and managerial ownership had no effect on earnings volatility. Meanwhile, the disclosure of the proportion of independent commissioners has an effect on earnings volatility.

The half‐life of political capital: An examination of the temporal effects of board political connections

AbstractResearch SummaryDoes corporate political activity (CPA) help sustain performance? Prior literature did not address this question, only whether CPA increases profits—with mixed results over short timescales. We theorize about how political capital affects the regression‐to‐the‐mean of profits through firm and industry persistence mechanisms. Using data on over 6000 firms from 14 democratic countries, we estimate time‐varying, firm‐specific performance persistence coefficients with random‐coefficient models—and profit volatility measures. Triangulating identification methods suggests that the half‐life of political capital is shorter than expected, also compared with other strategy interventions. Political connections are marginally effective at sustaining performance and reducing volatility, delaying profit convergence by only 0.180 years—and with no effect beyond 7 years. Preliminary evidence shows that legislative constraints further curb these modest benefits of CPA.Managerial SummaryCorporate political activity (CPA) has an ambiguous impact on firm profits. Yet, it still is a prominent and recurrent firm strategy. Do firms use CPA to sustain existing performance advantages—rather than to create new ones? We show that one type of CPA—the co‐optation of politicians into company boards—does increase the persistence and lowers the volatility of firm performance. However, this effect is surprisingly small: advantages only last 2.4% longer, 7.44 years compared to 7.26 years for politically unconnected firms. Political capital erodes faster than expected, presumably due to political cycles or politically motivated firm strategies that are detrimental to performance. CPA seems less effective at sustaining performance advantages than firm investments in R&D or skilled labor—and has a limited anticompetitive effect.

Technical Note—Optimizing Risk-Balancing Return Under Discrete Choice Models

Similar to individual investors, firms balance revenue or profit risk with the expected return on investment. A stable cash flow is required to satisfy private and public shareholders or to maintain solvency. Product prices impact both the expected demand for the products and the volatility of the demand, and consequently a firm’s revenue or profit risk. This paper presents models and results that demonstrate how risk sensitivity can inform pricing strategy. The authors show that a firm’s distaste for risk not only causes the firm to discount its products in exchange for lower profit volatility, but also reduces the firm’s incentive to price differentiate among the products. The findings also provide insight into how firms with varying degrees of risk aversion may price products of different quality and how this pricing strategy affects product market share.

The effects of profit volatility, income smoothing, good corporate governance and non-performing financing on profit quality of sharia commercial banks

The purpose of this study was to analyse the effects of profit volatility (X1), income smoothing (X2), corporate governance (X3), and non-performing financing (X4) on profit quality (Y) of sharia banks in Indonesia. The samples of this study were 10 sharia commercial banks in the period of 2012-2018 with 66 panel data that had been tested for outliers and normality. This study used a purposive sampling method, and it used the classical assumption tests, namely multicollinearity, autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and normality tests. This study used panel data regression analysis. The results of the study showed that profit volatility was detrimental to profit quality as evidenced by a beta coefficient of 0.0929 and the significance level of 0.1100, income smoothing was detrimental to profit quality as evidenced by a beta coefficient of -0.015 and the significance level of 0.1009, corporate governance had a negative influence on profit quality as evidenced by a beta coefficient of 0.0468 and the significance level of 0.293, non-performing financing was detrimental to profit quality as evidenced by a beta coefficient of -0.0096 and the significance level of 0.9139. The predictive ability of the four variables on profit quality was 16.34% while the remaining 83.66% was influenced by other factors not included in the research model.

Accounting Policies and Dividend Limitation: A European Comparison

Abstract The adoption of IFRS by the EU has raised issues about its economic consequences in terms of, among others, volatility of corporate profits, taxation of profit and distribution of dividends. Indeed, it has brought the interactions between legal rules for dividend distribution and accounting policies back into focus. The EU company and accounting regulations are based on capital maintenance rules that involve limitations on dividend distribution when certain accounting policies are implemented in individual financial statements under local GAAP. However, while a majority of member states permit IFRS for individual financial statements, the EU regulations are silent on this issue. In this article, we outline an in-depth analysis on legal dividend distribution rules interactions with accounting policies in European countries, whether local GAAP or IFRS are applied. We have selected nine cases of potential recognition of unrealised gains in individual financial statements under local GAAP and/or IFRS, some of which are already specified in the EU regulations. For each case, we have analysed the national accounting regulations and the corporate laws. Our analysis reveals that the limitations on dividend distributions recommended by the EU have been most largely implemented in the national regulations, but not in all countries. It also sheds light on potential loopholes in the current European regulation regarding unrealised gains that may be more systematically recognised under IFRS than under local GAAP: unrealised gains arising from the recognition of deferred tax assets and unrealised gains arising from benefit pensions plan. To fill these gaps in the national regulations and to harmonise the legal basis for dividend distribution better within the EU, we suggest including in the European regulation the concept of ‘realised profits’ and thus ‘distributable profits’ as a required basis for dividend distribution. It involves in the first place identifying relevant criteria that may enable disentangling realised and unrealised profits or losses.

Ukuran Perusahaan Memoderasi Pengaruh Penilaian Aset Biologi dan Income Smoothing terhadap Volatilitas Laba

PSAK 69 effective January 1, 2016 has provided direction regarding the valuation of biological assets from historical value to Fair value which uses the basis of market prices which always fluctuate in line with the demand and supply of biological assets.The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of valuation of biological assets on earnings volatility by moderating firm size in manufacturing companies in the agricultural sector in Indonesia and Malaysia for the period 2016 to 2020. This study uses quantitative methods with secondary data sources with samples used through purposive sampling where the total data is 220 company year data. The results of this study are that Biological Asset Valuation and Income Smoothing have a positive effect on earnings volatility, then for the moderating variable Firm size cannot strengthen the effect of biological asset valuation on Earning Volatility and can strengthen the effect of Income Smoothing on Profit Volatility.

The impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese chemical industry

We investigate how exchange rates affect the Japanese chemical industry. This industry exports sophisticated products to downstream firms. Since more complex products are less substitutable in international trade, we investigate whether they have lower price elasticities. We measure complexity using Hidalgo and Hausmann’s (2009) product complexity index. We find that price elasticities are lower for more complex chemical goods. We also find that stock returns of chemical firms that occupy vital niches in the world economy are harmed less by yen appreciations. These results indicate that exporting sophisticated products can reduce export volatility and profit volatility arising from exchange rate swings.

Bank board network and financial stability in emerging markets

This study finds that the board network is related to improvements in the financial stability of banks given by asset quality, insolvency risk and volatility of profits. Further, the board network is more critical for the private sector banks in India. The board network also improves the performance of banks, providing evidence in favor of the integrated resource dependence view of the board. Well-connected boards increase information availability and reduce the information asymmetry between the bank and its borrower. For financial firms, restricting the number of directorial positions for bank directors may not have any desirable effect on bank outcomes.

DETERMINE OF STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY ON MINING COMPANIES ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of dividend policy, earning volatility, trading volume, exchange rates and interest rates on the volatility of stock prices in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population studied in this study were all mining companies which were mining companies for the 2016-2019 period totaling 51. The sampling technique inthis study used a positive sampling method. The samples in this study were as many as 14 mining companies with the 2016-2019 observation year. The data analysis method used in this study is thepanel data regression analysis method. Dividend policy has a positive but insignificant effect on stock price volatility in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Profit volatility has a positive but insignificant effect on the volatility of share prices in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Trading volume has a positive and significant effect on the volatility of share prices in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Exchange rates have a positive and significant effect on stock price volatility in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the volatility of share prices in mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

Fair and Square: A Retention Model of Managerial Compensation

We propose a model of how the retention motive shapes managerial compensation contracts. Once employed, a risk-averse manager acquires imperfectly portable skills whose value is stochastic because of industry-wide demand shocks. The manager’s actions are uncontractible, and the perceived fairness of the compensation contract affects the manager’s motivation. If the volatility of profits is sufficiently large and outside offers are sufficiently likely, the equilibrium contract combines a salary with an own-firm stock option. The model’s predictions are consistent with empirical regularities concerning contractual shape, the magnitude of variable pay, the lack of indexation, and the prevalence of discretionary severance pay. This paper was accepted by Axel Ockenfels, behavioral economics and decision analysis.

Do firm characteristics affect debt capacity? Evidence in CEO succession

ABSTRACT Should firms decrease or increase their debt capacity after professional CEO succession? Examining a sample of all publicly traded firms from 1991 to 2016 in Taiwan, this research finds that firms with professional CEO successors tend to raise less debt and consider the succession of professional managers to be more conservative because they are afraid of being monitored more severely. From the perspectives of firms’ characteristics, those with professional CEO successors and high cash holdings and investment levels are more likely to increase their debt capacity, while those of a larger size and higher post-succession profitability volatility decrease their ability at raising debt. Finally, we hand-collect data and develop a novel method to identify the real founders and reconfirm our empirical evidence. Our findings present financial implications for boards of directors which they can evaluate firms’ cash holdings, investment level, firm size, and profit volatility before deciding on whether to name a CEO successor to take over their firms.