Volatile Capital Flows Research Articles

Capital controls in China: A necessity for macroeconomic stability

This paper investigates the crucial role of capital controls in maintaining macroeconomic stability in China. We develop an open macroeconomic model integrating capital controls within a managed floating exchange rate system. Our model shows that capital controls enhance the effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions by restricting capital outflows and providing a broader array of policy options, though they may also create discrepancies between domestic and foreign asset holdings. Simulations using quarterly time-series data reveal that capital controls are essential for the success of both sterilized and non-sterilized interventions. These results indicate that the combined use of capital controls and foreign exchange interventions can reduce macroeconomic volatility in China. Moreover, our analysis of fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes suggests that an inappropriate regime choice can increase volatility in capital flows. Therefore, China should adopt a balanced financial approach within its managed floating system to stabilize the macroeconomy.

The “Butterfly Effect” of Volatility in Net International Capital Flows: An Analysis of Co-Movement Characteristics and Influencing Factors

This paper employs social network analysis to investigate the characteristics and determinants of co-movement in the volatility of net cross-border capital flows. We have identified a significant “small-world” pattern in the co-movement network. Economies with highly positive or negative co-movement of volatility in net capital flows display regional differences. Furthermore, economies with high trade intensity, large interest-rate spreads, membership in the same economic organization, and geographical adjacency exhibit significantly increased co-movement of volatility in net private capital flows and net other investment flows. Economies with large differences in economic growth present less co-movement of volatility in net portfolio flows.

Do FX interventions lead to higher FX debt? Evidence from firm-level data

Central banks often buy or sell reserves—so called FX interventions (FXIs)—to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002–2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in the intensity of FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.

The volatility of capital flows in emerging markets: Measures and determinants

Capital flow volatility is a concern for macroeconomic and financial stability. Nonetheless, literature is scarce in this topic. Our paper sheds light on this issue along two dimensions. First, using quarterly data for 33 emerging markets and developing economies, we introduce new estimates of volatility for total multilateral gross capital in- and outflows and key categories, based on the residuals of ARIMA models. We find that a combination of our proposed approach and the commonly used standard deviation best identifies sharp rises during episodes of heightened global risk aversion, thus underscoring the need for a multi-faceted approach to gauge capital flow volatility. Second, we perform panel regressions to understand the determinants of volatility using both ARIMA and standard deviation measures of volatility. While there are variations across different categories of capital flows, generally speaking we identify three main drivers: the US interest rates, global risk aversion, and domestic real GDP. Overall, our findings call for a richer set of volatility estimates, beyond standard deviation, and also show that the determinants of capital flow volatility could vary depending on the measurement approach and the category of flow under analysis.

Volatile capital flows and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of transparency

Volatile capital flows and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of transparency

CAPITAL FLOWS VOLATILITY AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN EMERGING MARKETS: A CASE OF TÜRKİYE

US sub-prime crisis in 2008–09 led the central banks undertake unconventional monetary policies. In turn, short-term and volatile capital flows into emerging markets surged significantly, reigniting an intense academic debate on the ability of the central banks in EMs to protect their financial markets from external shocks. This paper develops a partially integrated System Dynamics Model to simulate the impact of the capital flows on the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate in Türkiye. The results support the contention that several recent episodes of excessive depreciation of the Turkish Lira as well as the currency crisis of 2018 can be linked to the reversals of stocks of short-term FX liabilities. The model also integrates policy rate sub-module into the main model, allowing responses of the central bank to inflation and exchange rate as a feedback mechanism. The results of the module indicate that external factors may cause the central bank to loose monetary independence in order to maintain financial stability.

SYSTEMIC ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS HAZARDS TO MODERN GLOBAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY

This article explores the systemic endogenous and exogenous threats facing global monetary and financial stability amidst escalating geo-economic fragmentation. It critically examines the evolving dynamics in the dominance of traditional currencies, particularly the US dollar, in light of the emergent roles of the euro and the yuan, contextualised by global financial interdependencies and rapid advancements in digital technology. The study underscores the traditional criteria for an international currency – including economic stability, openness to trade and capital, and the depth and liquidity of financial markets – and supplementsthese with the contemporary necessity for institutional robustness. A thorough literature review reveals vulnerabilities within the global banking system exposed by recent stress tests, highlighting the fragility of banking liquidity. It also examines the impacts of geopolitical tensions and rapid technological transformations, such as the effect of social media on financial markets and the swift movement of capital. The discussion extends to the implications of geopolitical fragmentation on global liquidity and economic stability, emphasising the critical need for robust preventive measures and a regulatory framework adaptable to evolving financial threats. The core findings of this research emphasise that effective regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing financial stability could alleviate the volatility of capital flows and diminish systemic risks, thereby reinforcing the status of certain currencies as international reserves. The paper posits that for a currency to qualify as an international reserve, it must possess assets that ensure value stability and exhibit minimal price impact during financial disruptions. Methodologically, this study employs a blend of theoretical and empirical approaches, merging quantitative and qualitative analyses to address its research objectives comprehensively. Given the current global financial uncertainties and shifts in the international currency arena, this paper is crucial for policymakers, financial analysts, and academic researchers engaged in the discourse of international finance.

MANAGEMENT OF CAPITAL FLOWS

The purpose of the research is to study the factors influencing this system, to analyze the theory and actual data related to the application of control measures on cross-border capital flows, to systematize the possible results of this tool, to create a balance and to properly manage capital flows, along with the balance of payments, which is a statistical system reflecting economic transactions, as well as determining its positive and negative consequences. The methodology of the research – in order to investigate the multi-directional effects of capital flows in the research, the methods of analysis, analysis, synthesis and secondary data analysis were used. The practical importance of the research - the results of this research can be used for scientists, politicians, analysts, financial institutions, interested parties in the economy sector to conduct macroeconomic analysis, formulate related policies and create a model related to capital flow management. The results of the research – this research significantly emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic analysis to monitor the economic health of a country, develop sound policies and practices and sustain appropriate growth, strategies to mitigate the potential downsides of capital flow volatility. The originality and scientific novelty of the research – the research highlights the importance of cross-border capital movement in enhancing access to finance, promoting innovation, the benefits of capital flows to the country, and the challenges it can create, contributing to the overall well-being of the economy.

Analysis on the Relationship Between China-US Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Short-Term Cross-Border Capital Flows

The exchange rate, as a key indicator of a country's economic health and policy direction, has profound implications for international trade and cross-border investments. This study explores the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and short-term international capital flows (SICF) and employs various economic analysis methods to delve into this issue. The main findings of the study include, firstly, there exists a cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and short-term international capital flows, indicating a long-term equilibrium relationship between them rather than just short-term fluctuations; secondly, Granger causality test results suggest a bi-directional causal relationship between these two variables, with changes in the RMB exchange rate being used to predict changes in international capital flows, and vice versa. Additionally, the estimated results of the VAR model established reveal linear relationships among five key variables and exhibit a high degree of fit. Finally, variance decomposition analysis reveals that the RMB exchange rate gradually becomes an important factor in the volatility of short-term capital flows, while the volatility of short-term capital flows itself gradually decreases.

Are Cryptocurrencies Really a Threat to the Financial Stability and Economic Growth? Evidence From the Cointegration Approach

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the cryptocurrency market affects financial stability and economic growth of India. The study used quarterly data on bitcoin, financial stability, inflation rate, real GDP, economic volatility uncertainty, exchange rate, and market volatility index for the period 2015Q1-2021Q4. The robustness of the findings was confirmed by the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). The study results demonstrated that an increase in cryptocurrency investments will affect the financial stability of India significantly. Each 1% increase in the cryptocurrency would reduce the financial stability by 5% approximately. However, there was a marginal effect of cryptocurrency on economic growth. The results also found that exchange rate volatility and inflationary pressure would also deteriorate the financial stability of the country. Furthermore, the results also identified positive and significant cointegration between economic growth and financial stability. Due to most transactions in the economy being done through the financial system, it is paramount for economic growth. Going forward, aggressive monetary policy tightening, volatility in capital flows and exchange rates, deanchoring of inflation expectations, faltering in the economic recovery, disruptions due to global supply chains and climate change will be the major risks to the financial stability and economic growth of India.

Are cryptocurrencies a threat to financial stability and economic growth of India? Evidence from the cointegration approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the cryptocurrency market affects the financial stability and economic growth of India. The study used time series quarterly data on bitcoin, financial stability, inflation rate, real GDP, economic volatility uncertainty, exchange rate, and market volatility index for the period 2015Q1–2022Q4. The robustness of the findings was confirmed by the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). The study results demonstrated that an increase in cryptocurrency investments will affect the financial stability of India significantly. Each 1% increase in the cryptocurrency would reduce the financial stability by 5% approximately. However, there was a marginal effect of cryptocurrency on economic growth. The results also found that exchange rate volatility and inflationary pressure would also deteriorate the financial stability of the country. Furthermore, the results also identified positive and significant cointegration between economic growth and financial stability. Due to most transactions in the economy being done through the financial system, it is paramount for economic growth. Going forward, aggressive monetary policy tightening, volatility in capital flows and exchange rates, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, faltering in the economic recovery, disruptions due to global supply chains and climate change will be the major risks to the financial stability and economic growth of India.

Global Risk, Non-Bank Financial Intermediation, and Emerging Market Vulnerabilities

Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly the rise of open-end mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets, exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment fund flows enhance risk sharing across borders and provide emerging markets access to more diverse forms of financing. However, a growing body of evidence also indicates that investment funds are inherently more vulnerable to liquidity and redemption risks during periods of global financial market stress, increasing the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. Benchmark-driven investments, namely passive funds, appear particularly sensitive to global risk shocks, such as tightening US dollar funding conditions, compared to their active fund counterparts. The procyclicality of investment fund flows to emerging markets during times of global stress poses financial stability concerns, with implications for the role of macroprudential policy.

Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand

Mundell–Fleming’s trilemma underlines tradeoffs among three things: stable exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and free capital mobility. Rey (2015) finds that the global financial cycle has transformed the “trilemma” into a “dilemma” that constrains monetary policy independence, regardless of the exchange rate regime. Complementary to the existing literature on this framework, we concentrate on the importance of the volatility regimes of capital flows. We estimate a structural Bayesian threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) on New Zealand quarterly data from 1997:I to 2020:IV. Having allowed for different volatility regimes, we find that the “dilemma” will always bind a small open economy like New Zealand. Not only does the amount of capital flow matter, but its volatility also causes substantial impacts. We also find that a contractionary monetary policy shock lowers capital flow volatility, but hinders real GDP growth in the high volatility regime.

The state of the global financial architecture: current trends and prospects for reform

Methods. The methodological basis of the research is a system of general scientific and specific methods, in particular, the method of logical analysis made it possible to build the logic of the research; the method of comparison – to assess the key parameters of the global financial architecture; analysis and synthesis – to generalize research results, the deduction method – to single out individual factors affecting the state of the modern world financial architecture. The graphic method made it possible to visualize the obtained research results. Results. The article is devoted to defining the trends of the world financial architecture. The structure of the modern world financial architecture, which includes global, regional and national levels, has been formed. The main problems of the global financial system have been identified, such as: the emergence of «bubbles» in some of its segments; increased volatility of international capital flows; volatility of exchange rates, etc. A list of global indicators influencing the global financial architecture has been determined. The need to reform the world financial architecture as a result of the global economic crisis of 2008–2009 is substantiated. The main directions of reforming the world financial architecture are identified: global financial management; banking sector; over-the-counter derivatives market and fight against offshore jurisdictions. New risks were identified, which caused the need to develop new mechanisms for reforming the global financial architecture at the end of 2018 – the beginning of 2020, the threat of new crises in countries with markets based on the principle of the «contagion effect». The impact of the pandemic on the world stock market was studied through the dynamics of the FTSE, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei indices. The article substantiates that an important aspect of the current state of the global financial architecture is the wide implementation of FinTech innovations. It has been proven that the war situation in Ukraine definitely affects the state of the financial architecture due to the strengthening of global inflation and the tightening of monetary policy by Ukraine's partner countries. Novelty. The originality and value of the research lies in the formation of a methodology for diagnosing the state of the world financial architecture. The main trends in the functioning of the world financial architecture have been determined. The importance of FinTech for achieving progressive changes in the global financial system and the development of the global financial architecture is determined. Practical value. There is substantiated the practical role of certain factors, which made it possible to determine the trends of the current state of the world financial architecture, which will become an analytical basis for assessing the degree of development of the financial architecture of the countries of the world.

Central bank asset purchase programs in emerging market economies

We investigate the impact of Asset Purchase Programs by 14 EME central banks during COVID-19, finding a statistically significant effect in compressing bond spreads vis-à-vis the US. A counterfactual analysis shows that without APPs, EME bond spreads would have been higher. Country-specific VAR impulse response functions indicate that a shock imposed on asset purchases becomes persistent on bond spreads after around 5 – 10 days, with a peak effect of around 40 basis points. Persistent stabilizing effects are also found on exchange rates and capital flow volatility, while stock markets and inflation expectations are overall not affected by the APPs.

Monetary Policy Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Perspectives on Jurisdictions with Conventional and Islamic Banking Systems

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated.

Capital controls and capital flow volatility during global shocks: Indian experience

This paper examines the issue of capital controls in India and their effectiveness in stabilizing the capital flow volatility in the economy. It documents the evolution of the capital controls regime in India since its economic liberalization in 1991 and focuses on India’s experience with capital controls in the period leading up to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 until the taper tantrum aftermath in 2013. We construct a capital controls index based on data from the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). The index shows careful ease of capital controls by Indian policymakers in the financial sectors, i.e., the capital market, money market and direct investment, over the 2001–2008 period. The index further shows that the process of decontrol in the capital market stagnated during 2009–2014 due to the GFC to insulate the Indian economy from global shocks. This paper further explores the impact of capital controls in managing capital flow volatility in the context of the GFC. Using the tobit estimation approach, we show that capital controls effectively reduce capital flow volatility in the pre-GFC period followed by a limited impact post-GFC. This complements the capital account liberalization process during pre-GFC period. Our findings support India’s prudent approach to capital account management as financial markets evolve to manage risk efficiently in a large economy.

Capital‐flow volatility in emerging markets: A panel GARCH approach

AbstractThis study analyzes the role of push–pull factors on the level, volatility and comovement of capital flows in emerging markets (EMs). Taking the commonality of capital flows into account, we employ the panel Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model developed by Cermeño and Grier for 16 EMs. This method not only accounts for country‐specific heterogeneity and cross‐section dependence but also allows the examination of the sources of the level, volatility and comovement of capital flows in a single step. The results show that domestic factors explain two‐thirds of the variation in net capital‐flow volatility. While both global and domestic factors, with the prominent ones being global risks and domestic economic growth, influence the comovement, their impacts somewhat vary by the types of capital flows.

Unfolding macroprudential mechanisms: central bank-led mechanisms during the post-Global Financial Crisis Turkish experience

AbstractThe Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was followed by an increased volatility in capital flows, posing considerable macro-financial risks, especially for emerging markets. Turkey addressed these macro-financial risks between 2010 and 2011. Principal decision makers at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey took policy actions by introducing policy mixes that trigger causal mechanisms informing the behaviour of bankers and their customers at the macro level to contain such risks. Utilising insights from causal mechanisms theory, critical realism, and realist evaluation, this article explores how the Central Bank implemented the policy mix. Our central argument is that at the macro level (i.e., structural and institutional contexts), causal mechanisms link actions with micro-level contexts (i.e., perceptions and reasoning of the target audience), whilst at the micro level, multiple causal mechanisms link policy outcomes with actor behaviour through non-linear feedback mechanisms. Our article contributes to the causal mechanisms literature by linking policy mixes and policy outcomes via causal mechanisms that informed agential actions and outcomes containing macro-financial risks.

Strategic Asset Allocation of a Reserves’ Portfolio: Hedging Against Shocks

Central bank reserves function as a liquidity buffer to mitigate country exposure and vulnerability to external shocks. Emerging Market Economies are the countries most exposed to the volatility of capital flows and have usually preferred to build up large war-chests of international reserves as a self-insurance mechanism, as it is under their full discretion. Nevertheless, the standard practice of immobilizing large amounts of “cash” to insure against jumps in volatility and risk-aversion could be enhanced. The inclusion of hedging strategies in the strategic asset allocation decision can help to enhance the risk management of the national balance sheet, transferring funds to those scenarios when reserves are most needed. This paper presents a practical approach that we propose to enhance the analysis of the strategic asset allocation of a central bank, and to explore the benefits of including in the construction of the efficient portfolio the analysis of correlations between the reserves’ portfolio and the country’s main vulnerabilities to external shocks.