Vietnam's Exports Research Articles

Vietnam's exports to Korea and the real exchange rate: Post-crisis evidence from the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

In this study, the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on Vietnam's exports to Korea were investigated using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. As a result, the MTNARDL model exhibited enhanced estimation accuracy compared to the single-threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Furthermore, the aggregate bias problem was solved using individual export data for 16 major industries instead of relying on the overall export value data. The results revealed the substantial asymmetric impact of real exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long run. Fluctuations in the real exchange rate boosted Vietnam's exports to the Republic of Korea in the long run, with minimal negative influence. This indicates that the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the United States (US) dollar encouraged exports in some industries but limited exports in others. However, the short-term effect of the real exchange rate remains uncertain, as it could be either negative or positive depending on the industry and threshold level. The diverse impacts of the real exchange rate fluctuations on exports across industries were attributed to factors such as the capacity to absorb foreign exchange risks, product heterogeneity, and the ease of adjusting inputs and production for each sector. Therefore, these findings may help policymakers develop Vietnam-specific policies to address long- and short-term changes in the threshold levels of real exchange rate fluctuations.

India-Vietnam Bilateral Trade and Investment Relations: An Empirical Analysis

The relations between India and Vietnam have been strengthening in both social and economic aspects. The bilateral trade and investment relations between the two countries are on an upward trend. In this context, the present paper analyzes the trade intensity between India and Vietnam and provides an overview of the investment relations. The study also examines the impact of the host country's GDP and exchange rate on the home country's export level for both India and Vietnam using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network technique of Artificial Neural Network. The main findings of the study show that before 2017, India's exports are more intensive than imports with Vietnam and Vietnam's imports are more intensive than exports with India. However, since 2017, this trend is slightly reversed and Vietnam's exports are more intense than imports with India. Furthermore, it is found that the host country's GDP and exchange rate have a significant impact on India and Vietnam's bilateral exports.

Exporting Vietnam’s Coconut Products: Opportunities and Threats

After highlighting the importance of Vietnam’s coconut product export industries, the research summarizes the prominent features of Vietnam's coconut products, the export procedures, and the export turnover of these products. It also identifies the opportunities and threats for Vietnam's coconut products. Specifically, opportunities for exporting Vietnam's coconut products include: (i) Large-scale production; (ii) Broad consumer market; (iii) Product processing technology; (iv) Support from coconut associations and traditional craft villages. On the other hand, the threats for exporting Vietnam's coconut products include: (i) Food safety issues; (ii) Competition with foreign countries; (iii) Production technology; (iv) Raw material market - product consumption market. The research results serve as a basis for the research team to consider and propose solutions from the government, associations, and enterprises to promote the export of Vietnam's coconut products.

Nowcasting Vietnam's Export Growth with Mixed Frequency Data

Purpose: The primary objective of this study is to investigate and employ a practical and meaningful nowcasting model to predict Vietnam's export growth based on factors of export supply and demand alongside relevant financial indicators. Theoretical Framework: This study employs the concepts and theories of nowcasting model with mixed frequency data to create the conceptual framework. Methodology: This study employs four commonly-used models in nowcasting: the bridge equation model (BEQ), Bayesian VAR model (BVAR), mixed frequency vector autoregressive model (MFVAR), and mixed data sampling regression (MIDAS). Findings: According to the experimental findings, the mixed frequency data models outperformed the models utilizing the same frequency data in nowcasting Vietnam's export growth. Additionally, this model demonstrated effectiveness in instantaneous and short-term forecasting. MIDAS emerged as the most suitable choice for nowcasting Vietnam's export growth among the models examined. Implication of Research: using data with mixed frequency along with corrresponding methods is the good way for nowcasting. Originality/Value: This study used macroeconomics factors to nowcast the export growth in Vietnam. It applied four different models including BEQ, BVAR, MFVAR, and MIDAS. The study reveals the roles of data and the potential capability in nowcasting of MIDAS model.

Analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of China-Vietnam bilateral agricultural commodity trade.

Vietnam's agricultural exports to China have remained strong, with the country maintaining its position as the top destination for Agri-products. This article primarily utilizes the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index, and Trade Complementarity (TC) index to examine the trade comparative advantage, and the complementary of twenty major agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2012 to 2021. The study results showed that Vietnam and China frequently exchange agricultural products. Vietnam has more stronger competitiveness than China in terms of agricultural products. China's exports to Vietnam were highly complementary to Vietnam's imports in category 0 whiles Vietnam's exports to China showed strong complementarity with China's imports in category 2. This paper analyzes the complementarity and comparative advantages of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam, and proposes informed suggestions for policy-making to promote agricultural trade between the countries. The proposed suggestions aim to expand agricultural trade between the two countries, reduce the trade imbalance, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

Vietnam's Exports in the Period Of 2016-2023 and Main Solutions to Promote Exports to 2030

Export is considered one of the prime essential factors for the socio-economic development of a country. In recent years, Vietnam's exports have achieved positive results. However, in the face of unpredictable developments in the world's economic and political situation, Vietnam must continue promoting exports up to 2030. This article presents and analyzes an overview of the export situation in the 2016-2023 period and proposes some solutions to boost exports up to 2030.

Assessing the impact of green logistics performance on vietnam's export trade to regional comprehensive economic partnership countries

This article uses a gravity model framework to examine the impact of green logistics on Vietnam's exports to countries participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The study uses a generalized least squares (GLS) estimation method based on panel data for the period 2010-2018 and has reliable sources. The results of empirical research have found the following main findings: (i) Logistics performance, encompassing cost, reliability, and time-related factors, significantly and positively influence Vietnam's exports; (ii) The interaction effects between supply chain input components (customs, infrastructure, and services) and CO2 emissions from the transportation sector have a positive impact on Vietnam's exports; (iii) The supply chain input components demonstrate direct and positive effects on exports when implemented in conjunction with their interaction effects with CO2 emissions from the transportation sector; (iv) The emissions of CO2 from Vietnam's transportation sector exert a negative influence on exports; (v) Adopting a green logistics approach that focuses on reducing CO2 emissions from the transportation sector demonstrates a positive influence on Vietnam's exports. This influence is observed through direct and moderating effects, indicating the potential for sustainable practices to foster export growth. These research findings provide valuable insights for managers and policymakers in the formulation of informed decisions related to the development and promotion of green logistics. By embracing sustainable practices and aligning export growth with environmental goals, Vietnam can enhance its competitiveness while contributing to a greener future.

Access to Educational Services for Children from Migrant Worker Households in Vietnam's Industrial Zones

Over the past 30 years, Vietnam's export processing zones and industrial parks have grown in number, drawing foreign laborers to places like Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, and Long An. In such scenario, getting social services is extremely difficult for immigrant workers in industrial parks and processing zones for a variety of reasons. The availability of schooling for children from working-class and immigrant families is a common example. In addition to having a direct impact on the stability of immigrant workers' lives and the growth of enterprises in industrial parks and export processing zones, failing to address the learning needs of this particular set of children also lowers their quality of life. Impacting the Vietnamese government's ability to carry out its obligations under the 1990 Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC). Based on the synthesis and analysis of secondary data sources gathered in Bac Ninh and Hanoi, the article's main goal is to give a general picture of how immigrant working families currently ensure their children's right to an education. From there, some suggestions are made to address this issue in the future from the standpoint of social work.

The trend of economic structural transformation in Vietnam during the 2010 - 2022 period

This article is based on secondary data from the General Statistics Office and the World Bank. Using criteria to assess economic structural transformation, the article aims to evaluate the trend of economic structural transformation in Vietnam in recent years. The research results indicate that since 2010, the economic sector has shifted from a significant reliance on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries to an increasing share of industry, construction, and service sectors in the country's GDP structure. Labor in various economic sectors has shown a shift with a decreasing proportion in the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors and an increasing proportion in the industry, construction, and service sectors. Vietnam's export product structure has also positively shifted, with a reduced proportion of agricultural and forestry products and an increased share of industrial processing, manufacturing, and services. The industrial and construction sectors have the highest labor productivity among the three economic regions, while the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors have the lowest labor productivity. Alongside the achievements, the process of economic structural transformation in Vietnam still faces various difficulties and certain limitations. Based on these findings, the article proposes some recommendations for a more rational and sustainable transformation of the country’s economic sector.

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Vietnam’s Exports

The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak expanded worldwide, disrupting trade on a scale never before seen, as well as that of individual nations, notably Vietnam. The complicated developments of the COVID-19 pandemic have significantly affected Vietnam's economic growth in general and export activities in particular. Since joining the WTO, Vietnam's exports have grown tremendously and become an essential driver of economic growth. However, due to the high openness of the economy, Vietnam's exports are highly dependent on impacts from external shocks with global influence, especially the Covid-19 pandemic. The following research paper uses a mixed regression model to analyze and assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Vietnam's export activities through such contents as export turnover, export product, export market, and exporters.

Enhancing the Competitiveness of Tea Export of Vietnam Versus Other ASEAN Countries in the International Market

Tea is one of the leading agricultural export commodities of Vietnam. In this study, the tea market position of Vietnam and its competitiveness with other ASEAN countries from 2006 to 2020 was analyzed. The data was collected from several sources, such as national and international organizations. The study used Export Similarity Index (ESI) and Revealed the Comparative Advantage index (RCA) to analyze the comparativeness of tea export of Vietnam with other ASEAN countries. The results showed that Vietnam had more potential and advantage in tea production and export than other countries in ASEAN, reflected in the ESI and RCA indexes. However, Vietnam’s tea sector had not yet taken full advantage of the country’s potential. Based on the findings, some suggestions regarding policy implementation, management of government and enterprises, production and market development for the tea sector were given. With those suggestions, it was expected that Vietnam’s tea sector will achieve sustainable growth and gradually enhance its position in the international market in the future.

The impact of the customs environment on Vietnam’s exports

This paper aims to study the impact of the customs environment on Vietnam's exports, using panel data with 11 variables collected from 81 trading partners of Vietnam in the period between 2014 and 2019. The customs environment index (CEI) is determined by four component indexes: i) ease of cross-border trading, ii) prevalence of non-tariff barriers, iii) trade tariffs, and iv) corruption perception, with weights for each component calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The gravity model is employed and run using R software version 4.0.4. The results indicate that the customs environment has a significantly positive impact on Vietnam's exports at the level of 1%; each percentage improvement in the CEI will lead to a 1.8105% increase in Vietnam's exports (ceteris paribus). In other words, the convenience of the customs environment could promote Vietnam’s exports. By calculating the CEI of all countries, the results also show that the customs environment in Vietnam has improved during the investigated period, from 0.57 in 2014 to 0.59 in 2019, but this improvement is not considerable. When compared to Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-6 countries, Vietnam has a relatively modest customs environment record. These are critical findings for the implementation of necessary policies in Vietnam.

The Efficiency and the Performance of the Logistics Global Supply Chain Activities to Vietnam Exportation: an Empirical Case Study

Purpose: This research paper aims to determine the factors affecting the efficiency and logistics performance index (LPI) of Vietnam's exports to foreign partners during 2018-2022 are due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Theoretical Framework: Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam. Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including (1). Customs efficiency (speed, simplicity and predictability of customs clearance procedures) (2). Quality of infrastructure related to trade and transport, including Roads, railways, ports, airports, warehouses and information technology ...(3). The level of ease when arranging to transport import and export goods with competitive prices (costs such as warehousing fees, port fees, tolls ... ) (4). Capacity and quality of logistics service providers ... (5). Ability to track and trace shipments. (6). Timeliness of the shipment to the destination within the specified time limit. The practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam. Method: The panel approach allows the authors to explore the heterogeneity in data across countries. Fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models were used to estimate the model. Then, the Hausman test is carried out to decide which model is appropriate. The data were collected from 240 observations from Vietnam and 80 major export partner countries of Vietnam. Findings: The research results show that the cost, time and capacity of providing logistics services have the most significant impact on Vietnam's exports. Practical & social implications: Overall, to increase the efficiency and logistics efficiency of enterprises. The Vietnamese Government needs to cooperate and propose ideas to partner countries to improve logistics activities for exports from Vietnam. Logistics is beginning to play an increasingly important role in the competitiveness of economies. Originality values: This study also confirms the sustainability of the extended gravity model using OLS and RE methods by substituting different variables for the country's logistics efficiency and solving the endogenous problem in the model while applying the regression method to industrial variables. We find that an 1% improvement in Vietnam's logistics would increase Vietnam's exports by 1.443%, and an 1% improvement in a partner country’s performance would help promote Vietnam's exports to this country by 0.546%.

The Efficiency of the Logistics Global Supply Chain Activities and Analysis of Related Rules and Regulations

Purpose: This research paper aims to determine the factors affecting the efficiency and logistics performance index (LPI) of Vietnam's exports to foreign partners during 2018-2022 are due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Theoretical Framework: Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam. Based on the primary factors affecting the efficiency and performance of global supply chain activities in logistics for Vietnam's exports, including (1). Customs efficiency (speed, simplicity and predictability of customs clearance procedures) (2). Quality of infrastructure related to trade and transport, including Roads, railways, ports, airports, warehouses and information technology ...(3). The level of ease when arranging to transport import and export goods with competitive prices (costs such as warehousing fees, port fees, tolls ... ) (4). Capacity and quality of logistics service providers ... (5). Ability to track and trace shipments. (6). Timeliness of the shipment to the destination within the specified time limit. The practical impact and logistics results of enterprises in Vietnam. Method: The panel approach allows the authors to explore the heterogeneity in data across countries. Fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models were used to estimate the model. Then, the Hausman test is carried out to decide which model is appropriate. The data were collected from 240 observations from Vietnam and 80 major export partner countries of Vietnam. Findings: The research results show that the cost, time and capacity of providing logistics services have the most significant impact on Vietnam's exports. Practical & social implications: Overall, to increase the efficiency and logistics efficiency of enterprises. The Vietnamese Government needs to cooperate and propose ideas to partner countries to improve logistics activities for exports from Vietnam. Logistics is beginning to play an increasingly important role in the competitiveness of economies. Originality values: This study also confirms the sustainability of the extended gravity model using OLS and RE methods by substituting different variables for the country's logistics efficiency and solving the endogenous problem in the model while applying the regression method to industrial variables. We find that an 1% improvement in Vietnam's logistics would increase Vietnam's exports by 1.443%, and an 1% improvement in a partner country’s performance would help promote Vietnam's exports to this country by 0.546%.

Analyzing Relevant Regulations and the logistics services in Vietnam

Purpose: This research paper aims to present Analyzing Relevant Regulations and the logistics services in Vietnam. Ronald Hballou, Stephen Mgilbert, Ashok, Yukherjee (2000) suggests that supply chain is an emerging term that emphasizes the interaction between marketing, logistics and production. Method: The panel approach allows the authors to explore the heterogeneity in data across countries. Fixed effects (FE) and random effects (RE) models were used to estimate the model. Findings: The estimated results of the FTA variable show that participation in free trade agreements has a positive impact on Vietnam's exports when this coefficient is positive, however this positive result is insignificant. Because of statistical significance, this study discontinued analyzing the effect of the free trade agreement variable.

Analysis of Bilateral Trade Between Vietnam and China

The purpose of this study was to analyze the current status of trade between China and Vietnam. The study used data from the General Statistics Office report to uncover results of import and export activities of Vietnam and China, as well as the disparity between the two countries; aside from that, the study also pointed out the most significant products Vietnam exports to China as well as those Vietnam imports with great value from China. Furthermore, researchers have also found that Vietnam's trade deficit with China is growing, which is one of the major problems when our trade activities are highly dependent on China. Based on that analysis, the study offers several recommendations for enhancing trade between Vietnam and China; in the meantime, this also limits the current trade deficit between Vietnam and China.

Impact of Inflation on Vietnam FDI and Export Value after the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the first quarter of 2022, many countries in North America and Europe experienced a rapid increase in the inflation rate. High inflation is expected to slow down post-pandemic economic growth expectations in Vietnam and many other countries. This study synthesizes the latest economic data collected in Vietnam along with several developed countries around the world. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risks that inflation can affect two of the important drivers of Vietnam's economic development after the COVID-19 pandemic. The two growth drivers of Vietnam's economy analyzed are foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Vietnam's exports. This research uses a combination of methods such as statistics, synthesis, interpretation, comparison, and inductive. The authors use EViews 11 to obtain lag optimal-order selection statistics for Vector Auto-regression (VARs). Granger causality test and impulse response were also used. This study indicates that the expected growth in the value of Vietnam's exports to other countries and the number of FDI inflows into Vietnam may be negatively affected by high global inflation. The difficulty in exporting challenges the recovery of Vietnam’s economy after the COVID-19 pandemic . However, this paper finds positive internal signals that can help Vietnam's recovery. Besides, this study provides strategies that can be applied in Vietnam to limit the risks posed by high inflation to attract FDI and export capital flows. Keywords: inflation, foreign direct investment, export, COVID-19 pandemic . DOI: https://doi.org/10.55463/hkjss.issn.1021-3619.60.9

Assessing the Impacts of Non-Tariff Measures on the Export of Vietnam’s Main Agricultural and Seafood Products

With the development of free trade agreements, tariff barriers are gradually removed, and non-tariff measures are playing an important role in the trade policies of countries. However, studies on the effects of non-tariff measures on trade show a great disparity in results and both negative and positive influences can be found when non-tariff measures are imposed in different contexts. The heterogeneity in the result is often hypothesized to be the consequence of intrinsic characteristics related to products and countries; therefore, arguably, unbiased and reliable estimation of non-tariff measure effect on trade should be analyzed in product level data for a specific country. Hence, the study attempts to use the gravity model and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimation (PPML) to quantify the effects of non-tariff measures on the export of some agricultural and seafood products of Vietnam to certain main markets including the United States (US), European Union (EU), China, and Japan. The research findings show that from a national perspective, non-tariff measures mostly have a negative impact on agricultural exports, especially sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPM), and countervailing measures (CM). In terms of commodities, coffee and seafood are particularly sensitive to non-tariff measures, while other key agricultural product groups are mostly affected by tariff measures.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade in developing countries: evidence from Vietnam

PurposeThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing countries such as Vietnam. This article aims to investigate how the COVID-19 cases and related deaths and policy response by Vietnam and trading partners to the pandemic affect Vietnam's export activities.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the monthly trade data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs and employ the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to empirically investigate the effects of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on Vietnam's exports at aggregate and sectoral levels over a 33-month period.FindingsIn the first year of the pandemic (January–December 2020) as well as the whole study period (January 2019–September 2021), trading partners' COVID-19 burden adversely affected Vietnam's aggregate exports, and the effect of COVID-19 deaths is significantly larger than that of COVID-19 cases. In the first year of the pandemic, estimates show a negative effect of Vietnam's COVID-19 cases on its exports, while no evidence reveals the impact of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths. However, during the entire study period, there are remarkable adverse effects of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths on its exports. The effect of the COVID-19 burden in Vietnam and in its trading partners differs significantly across major subsectors. In the first year, there is a positive role of government response to the pandemic by Vietnam and its trading partners in Vietnam's aggregate exports, while in the whole study period, only a positive effect of Vietnam's government response is found. Economic support and free trade agreements (FTAs) have a positive effect on Vietnam's exports. In the first year of the pandemic, Vietnam's export losses due to COVID-19 outweighed its export gains from the pandemic. However, Vietnam's exports have significantly improved over the nine months of 2021.Research limitations/implicationsEfforts should aim to reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths rather than focus on reducing the number of COVID-19 cases. The application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods, such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic support, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade. The expansion of FTA networks and diversifying export destinations may be helpful in maintaining production networks and export activities.Practical implicationsIn the long-term period, the application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic assistance, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade activities.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, the paper is among the first studies empirically investigating the impacts of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on aggregate and sectoral exports from Vietnam. The paper also measures the absolute value of export gain and export loss due to the pandemic between Vietnam and trading countries.

Determinants of Vietnam’s Exports to ASEAN Countries in the Context of the ASEAN Economic Community

The ASEAN region is emerging as a dynamically developing region, and trade between Vietnam and ASEAN countries has continuously improved over the years. This study investigates the determinants of Vietnam’s exports to ASEAN countries from 1997 to 2020. The paper also examines the differences in the directions of the impact in different groups of exported products. Using pooled OLS and panel data methods, the results demonstrate that Vietnam’s exports increased as its GDP per capita and importing countries’ GDP per capita increased. In contrast, transportation costs proxied by geographic distance were found to have a negative impact on Vietnam’s exports. The results assert the positive relationship between exports and real bilateral exchange rate. The ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) was found to have no statistically significant influence on Vietnam’s exports. These results are vital for trade policy formulation to promote Vietnam’s exports to ASEAN countries. Vietnam should promote trade with countries sharing a border to take advantage of transportation costs and reduce potential risks in goods movement. In addition, it is necessary to minimize the effects of fluctuations in the exchange rate in order to further promote Vietnam's exports in the future.