Vertical Foreign Direct Investment Research Articles

Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Spillovers: An Analysis of Indian Manufacturing

Using a rich firm-level panel dataset of Indian manufacturing over 2010–2018, this study aims to identify the spillover effects associated with foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we distinguish spillover effects into horizontal (Intra-industry linkage) and vertical (backward or downstream and forward or upstream Inter-industry linkages) FDI channels. We employ various semi-parametric methods to tackle the endogeneity issues in productivity estimation. We find that backward spillover from the downstream multinational enterprises is the only source of total factor productivity gains. However, the magnitude of negative forward–vertical linkage is larger than the positive backward–vertical effect. The analysis also broadly compares technology spillovers for domestic and all firms in the sector. Finally, we investigate productivity spillover across industries based on their technology intensity. Our findings suggest that industry heterogeneity is a key driver of FDI spillover. JEL Codes: F23, D24, O33, L1

The effect of geopolitical risks on TNC location decision from antagonizing countries in the Russian Federation in light of the Ukrainian crisis

The paper investigates the effect of geopolitical risks in the Russian Federation on foreign direct investment (FDI) from antagonizing countries in light of the Ukrainian crisis. Using the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), the empirical analysis works on panel data on inward FDI from 90 countries from 2007 to 2020. The estimation method of RWLS concluded that rising GPR deters flows and stocks of FDI coming from antagonizing countries, which confirms that interstate relations and geopolitical factors impact the location decision of transnational corporations. On a sectoral level, we found a negative effect in the secondary and tertiary sectors, with a greater effect in the secondary one, which indicates that vertical FDI is more sensitive to geopolitical risks than horizontal ones. However, the impact of GPR on inward FDI in the primary sector is positive, which indicates that antagonizing countries seek to control energy and mining sectors in the Russian federation during geopolitical tension.

Trade and value chain participation: Domestic firms and FDI spillovers in Africa

AbstractData on the location of foreign direct investment (FDI) projects within and across African nations are combined with firm‐level survey data and information on sectoral input–output relationships to assess what types of FDI are more likely to influence participation in global value chains (GVCs) and to investigate the relationship between FDI and the performance of proximate domestic firms. Firm‐level analysis finds evidence of vertical spillovers from exposure to FDI, mainly in the manufacturing sector: domestic firms located near FDI projects that offer potential supply or demand linkages are more likely to engage in trade through imports or exports. Proximity to FDI projects in the same sector (horizontal linkage) is less likely to affect trade or GVC performance of domestic firms. Both vertical and horizontal FDI linkages are associated with higher labour productivity and other dimensions of performance.

Host country corruption and Japanese outward foreign direct investment: A sectoral and industry-level analysis

Japan regained its status as the world’s largest source of outward FDI in 2018. This paper studies the relationship between host country corruption and Japanese outward manufacturing and service FDI into 179 countries for the years 1995–2019. Employing a negative binomial model, we find that host country corruption is negatively associated with Japanese MNE activity at both aggregated, sectoral and industry-levels. Moreover, we do not identify major industry-level FDI determinant differences at the global level as both sectors and industries appear driven by market seeking motives. In contrast, the factor endowment variables signaling vertical FDI showed little if any statistical significance.

COGNITIVE BACKGROUND OF VERTICAL FDI SPILLOVERS: AWARENESS MOTIVATION COGNITIVE CAPACITY

This study aims to investigate how the awareness, motivation, and capacity of local organizations affect vertical FDI spillovers in the Turkish automotive industry within the framework of institutional theory. A multiple case study method was used in this study, in which interviews, observations, and documents of seven local supplier organizations were subjected to content analysis. The findings show that the expectations of multinational companies for efficiency in buyer-supplier relationships have limited the awareness, motivation and capacity of local suppliers for internationalization and innovation. This situation prevents local organizations, especially those located at the lower rungs of the supply chain, from capturing the positive effects of vertical FDI spillovers.

Contracting with Enemies? Vertical FDI with Outsourcing Contracts

An exploration of Korean MNCs' foreign affiliate-level data reveals that a significant portion of manufacturing foreign affiliates sell both to related and unrelated firms at the same time. We refer to this as hybrid vertical FDI. We rationalize the presence of hybrid vertical FDI by modifying the otherwise standard property-rights model of global sourcing with the subsidiary-level option of supplying inputs to unrelated customers in addition to related firms. Given the positive production externality from serving additional customers (that is proportional to the MNC's productivity) and the costs of getting such benefit (that are increasing in relationship-specificity of the outsourced inputs), the model generates following testable hypotheses: Both MNCs' likelihood of choosing hybrid over pure vertical FDI and their foreign affiliate firms' related-firm sales ratio over unrelated-firm go up when the productivity of foreign affiliates increases (but such tendencies weaken when contractual complexity goes up), which our subsequent empirical analysis robustly confirms.

Global FDI inflows and outflows in emerging economies Post-COVID-19 era

FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is frequently viewed as a critical measure of a country's economic strength and potential. Consequently, this paper investigates why countries attract FDI by utilizing factors and channels such as vertical or horizontal FDI as well as COVID-19’s impact on FDI flows in emerging economies with data from 1990 to 2020. Models of kinked exponential growth for estimating growth rates and the Andrew and Zivot trend formulations are used to analyze the rise in FDI inflows. The FDI inflow channels are estimated using dynamic panel data analysis, with a generalized method of moments for emerging economies as a whole and an autoregressive distributed lag-pooled mean group for specific countries. The countries studied were India, China, Russia, South Africa, and Brazil. Except for India, where the trend has accelerated, the rest of the nations in the emerging economies category has seen significant or minor declines. Overall, vertical and horizontal factors influence FDI inflows to emerging economies. However, estimations show that vertical and horizontal factors promote FDI inflow into the Russian Federation and India. China's horizontal motivation, on the contrary, is critical. Inflows of FDI into Brazil and South Africa appear to be unrelated. The pandemic scenario affects FDI in Brazil but not in other emerging economies. FDI determinants differ per country. In order to improve their economic situation following the pandemic, developing countries may establish adequate FDI policies to attract FDI.

External Debt Default and Foreign Direct Investments

Abstract We analyze the effect of a country’s defaults and restructuring its’ official and private external debt on its ability to attract foreign direct investment. We use different types of foreign direct investments: FDI Flows, Horizontal FDI, vertical FDI, cross-border mergers & acquisitions, and greenfield FDI. Using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation method, which has never been used in the literature to do a similar analysis, we find that external debt default decreases all types of FDIs. Furthermore, we also conduct a more granular sensitivity analysis by analyzing the effect of political risk ratings, effect on non-advanced economies, and effect on highly indebted poor countries (HIPC). We find that cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decrease as corruption risk decreases and increases as law and order improve. For HIPC countries, official external debt restructuring increases greenfield FDI. JEL classification number: C1, C33, D72, F21, H63, O57. Keywords: Debt Default, Restructuring, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), External Debt, ICRG, Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), Political Risk.

Networked FDI and third-country intra-firm trade

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is networked. This is beyond vertical and horizontal FDIs. Affiliates locate across multiple countries and trade among them. This paper investigates the FDI networks, using the Japanese foreign affiliate data. First, we investigate location patterns and industry patterns of foreign affiliates and find the network structure of FDI. Then, third-country intra-firm trade is explored. The third-country sales and sourcing within the firm boundary (third-country intra-firm trade) is active, but only large firms tend to construct production networks and engage third-country intra-firm trade. Firm size (size of parent and affiliates and the number of affiliates) is crucial in understanding third-country intra-firm trade.

The institutional determinants of outward foreign direct investment

Abstract This study focuses on the influence of institution quality on foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows. For empirical estimation, we use a dataset covering 102 home and 67 host countries from 2001 to 2016. We use the gravity approach and apply the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method to derive unbiased estimates. A set of institutional variables in a country is integrated into a single institutional index using principal component analysis. Our main findings are the following. First, we only identify a positive influence of the level of institutional development on FDI outflows for the institutionally developed countries. Second, we have not found evidence for crowding out national investment in the countries with weak institutions. Third, increases in the level of institutions stimulate horizontal rather than vertical outward FDI in an economy. Finally, institutional distance negatively affects the level of outward FDI only when the institutional distance between the two countries is large. The policy implications of this research are strongly in favour of further developing institutions.

Offshoring via vertical FDI in a long-run Kaleckian Model

This paper develops a two-country Kaleckian model in which “Northern” firms invest a fixed fraction of total investment in foreign affiliates in the low-wage “South” in order to offshore the production of intermediate goods over time. On the back of this setup follows an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of offshoring in the short and long run. Offshoring through vertical FDI is found to lead to a falling wage share and a simultaneously falling price level and rising markup in the North, whereas the effect on equilibrium capacity utilization may be positive or negative. Regardless of the effect on capacity utilization and firm profitability, we can show that the structural change implied by offshoring leads to lower rates of capital accumulation and employment in the North in the short run. The long-run effects on Northern employment and growth, on the other hand, depend crucially on the long-run accumulation rate of the Northern-owned multinational firms and on whether wages in the North and the South endogenously converge. The model appears well suited to shed light on many real-world macroeconomic phenomena, such as rising FDI flows, falling wage shares, rising markups in an era of low inflation, hysteresis, and secular stagnation.

Investment climate and foreign direct investment in Latin American countries: firm-level evidence

This paper analyzed the relationship between the investment climate and foreign direct investment (FDI) using a sample of 18 Latin American countries. The main results show that obstacles related to financial infrastructure and customs clearance might reduce the probability of a country receiving FDI, while physical infras-tructure obstacles do not significantly affect the influx of FDI. The disaggregated data show that financial infrastructure is important for attracting both vertical and horizontal FDI. On average, policies in Latin America that minimize financial obs-tacles and reduce the time it takes to clear customs will increase the likelihood of attracting FDI.Keywords: developing countries; FDI; export.JEL code: F21; F23

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia

We examine what determines the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia, focusing on the role of institutional measures. A knowledge-and-physical-capital (KPC) model is applied to a panel dataset that covers 42 of Indonesia’s FDI partners from 2004 to 2012. Evidence shows that both horizontal and vertical FDIs coexist in the bilateral aggregate data of Indonesia’s FDI flows, but horizontal FDI appears to be dominant. This can be explained by the market size (proxied by the total GDP of both countries and similarity in incomes per capita) and the relative factor endowments (proxied by skilled labor and physical capital). The vertical FDI, on the other hand, could be only explained by the significant effect of unskilled labor. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, are apparently important in affecting Indonesia’s bilateral FDI flows. The results also show that a higher FDI level in Indonesia positively correlates with macroeconomic factors, open policy factors, and utility infrastructure factors.

Trends and Determinants of FDI with Implications of COVID-19 in BRICS

Foreign direct investment (FDI) movement to any country is recognized as an important criterion for economic strength and potentiality. Hence, the present study analyzes the motives of FDI inflows through the determinants and channels, namely horizontal or vertical FDIs and the impact of COVID-19 on FDI Inflows in BRICS countries during the period 1990–2020. The Kinked Exponential (deterministic) trend, and Zivot and Andrew’s trend equations are applied for the growth analysis of FDI inflows. Regarding the estimation of channels of FDI inflows in terms of horizontal, vertical, and hybrid motivations, dynamic panel data analysis using GMM for BRICS economies together and ARDL-PMG for individual countries is made. The findings show significantly positive growth in FDI inflows in all BRICS countries except India during the first decade of the present century. After that, these countries have experienced either significantly or insignificantly declining trends, except India, where the trend has significantly increased during this later period. From the overall analysis, we see that both horizontal and vertical motivations play a dominant role in determining FDI inflows for the BRICS countries. However, from country-wise estimations, it is observed that both horizontal and vertical motives are dominant factors for FDI inflows to India and Russia. In contrast, the horizontal motive of it is significant for China. For Brazil and South Africa, no motive behind FDI inflows appears significant. The pandemic situation significantly impacts attracting FDI in Brazil, while it remains insensitive in the rest of the BRICS countries. The findings reveal that FDI determinants are country-specific. So, the BRICS countries can design proper FDI policy and adopt more reforms in attracting FDI that may help improve their economic situation.

Reverse FDI and knowledge-and-physical-capital model: empirical evidence from emerging economies

PurposeThe main aim of this paper is to verify whether the modern mainstream economic theory of multinational enterprise that explains foreign direct investment (FDI) from developed countries is also able to account for investment decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from emerging economies.Design/methodology/approachUsing Knowledge-And-Physical-Capital (KAPC) model as an analytical framework and Poisson-pseudo maximum likelihood estimation technique, the authors identify determinants of FDI flows from emerging economies. The data set consists of 38 home and 134 host countries during the period 2000–2012. Empirical evidence supports high explanatory power of KAPC model. Further, compared with the earlier Knowledge-Capital (KC) model, results confirm the importance of physical capital.FindingsThe estimation results confirm the hypothesis that mainstream economic theory can explain FDI flows from the emerging economies by highlighting the roles of total market size, skilled-labor abundance, investment and trade costs and geographical distance between two countries.Research limitations/implicationsThis study casts doubt on the alternative way that the KAPC model suggests to distinguish between horizontal and vertical FDI. The argument that horizontal MNE headquarters would be relatively more abundant than vertical MNE headquarters in countries that are abundant in physical capital relative to skilled labor seems reasonable but the idea of variable specification in the estimated equation should be revised.Practical implicationsFirms should be allowed to move their resources freely into and out of specific activities, both internally and internationally across border. To reach that goal, governments of potential host countries can adopt several measures, most importantly remove restrictions on payments, transfers and capital transactions and open previously closed industries to welcome foreign investment. In addition, to improve investment climate in general, governments need to pay attention to enhancing security of property rights, regulating internal taxation (i.e. corporate income tax), guaranteeing adequacy of infrastructure, efficient functioning of finance and labor markets and fighting against corruption.Social implicationsThe location choice of emerging investors set priority on similarity in economic size, geographical and cultural proximity. It is because shared borders or common official languages would reduce information costs and enhance information flows. Also, investors consider horizontal FDI (with motivation to expand market demand) as one of main modes of entry into a foreign market and a substitute for export. Likewise, distance is often understood as an important investment friction.Originality/valueThe outstanding contribution is that the research has uncovered the positive and statistically significant effect of physical capital on FDI activity, which has not been discussed in the earlier KC model. However, at the same time, the study casts doubt on the KAPC model's argument that relative abundance in physical capital to skilled labor between two countries determines FDI types and suggests that this argument and its empirical model specification should be carefully reviewed.

EU enlargements and U.S. FDI flows in the six core states

ABSTRACT This paper addresses an under-researched question of whether regional integration with lower-income countries results in displacement of foreign direct investment (FDI) from high-income countries. Difference-in-differences (DID) estimations are used to, respectively, analyse the effects of the 1986 enlargement and the 2004/2007 enlargement of European Union (EU) on U.S. FDI flows into the EU core states. The results reveal a negative impact of the 1986 enlargement on EP FDI and positive effects of the 2004/2007 enlargement on EP and vertical FDI. The comparative analysis demonstrates that the impact of regional integration depends on the relative strength of a few factors determined by the circumstance. High-income countries do not necessarily lose FDI following an integration with lower-income countries. While the integration tends to divert labour-cost sensitive EP FDI away from the high-income members, as long as the high-income members adaptively go through industrial restructuring and take full advantage of the expanded production networks in response to the newly integrated regional environment, they are likely to become more resilient and competitive in the regional and global markets and reap the benefits of integration.

Factor Endowments, Economic Integration, Round-Tripping, and Inward FDI: Evidence from the Baltic Economies

This paper studies the location choice of foreign multinational firms in the Baltic economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania using a knowledge-and-physical capital model across 2004–2017. We used the Bayesian model averaging estimation method to investigate a set of possible factors that drive inward FDI. Our analysis demonstrates that factor endowments play a dominant role in driving vertical foreign direct investment, while external market barriers generate “tariff-jumping” FDI. Our analysis quantifies the effects of round-trip FDI, European integration, and external bilateral free trade agreements vis-à-vis inward FDI in the Baltics.

Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Constraints: Firm-Level Evidence from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar

Financial constraints have been a significant obstacle to firms operating in developing countries. Prior studies show that foreign direct investment (FDI) helps to ease credit constraints for domestic firms. However, they only account for horizontal FDI spillovers. This paper therefore investigates both horizontal and vertical FDI spillovers using firm-level data from Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (CLM). The key findings of this paper are threefold. First, FDI inflows lessen the financial constraints faced by local firms through partnership or joint venture. Second, an increasing share of FDI in horizontally and vertically related industries raises higher credit constraints for domestic firms. Third, the crowding-out effect of FDI is not uniform across domestic firms of different sizes. Therefore, policymakers should be aware of these possible negative spillovers and formulate policy to maintain FDI inflows while also ensuring the growth and survival of domestic firms.

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.

“Exit” vs. “Voice”: Global Sourcing, Multinational Production, and the China Trade Lobby

AbstractThis paper examines the influence of three different forms of global economic engagement on the lobbying behavior of US businesses with regard to trade relations with China: (a) input sourcing; (b) downstream export; and (c) vertical foreign direct investment. It will be hypothesized that firms involved in all three forms of global economic activities should have incentives to lobby over China-related trade issues in order to maintain unimpeded access to sources of supply or markets and to ensure the smooth operation of the entire supply chain. Going further, drawing on the exit-voice framework developed by Albert Hirschman (1972), it will be argued that compared to firms in those industries mainly involved in input sourcing from China, American multinational corporations that have verticalized their production should have even stronger incentives to engage in lobbying activities and “voice” their policy preferences due to their greater “sunk costs” and hence the higher cost of “exit.” Statistical analysis of the China trade-related lobbying activities of US firms between 2006 and 2016 lends substantial support to these conjectures.