Abstract The extended operation of Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants has caused spatial deformations and aging of hydrostructures. This can lead to man-made disasters, especially after explosions resulting from missile attacks. As a result, various defects can appear in the concrete structures of the dam. Continuous structural monitoring of hydropower plants is essential to prevent man-made accidents. The research paper also demonstrates that changes in water temperature can affect the dam’s vertical and horizontal displacements. A model was developed and analysed to determine the spatial deformations of the Dnister HPP based on water temperature and distance from the dam’s edge. It was determined that horizontal displacement rates range from −2.2 to 2.7 mm/month, and vertical displacement rates range from −2 to 1.3 mm/month. They are also seasonal in nature. The studies conducted enable the prediction and identification of seasonal spatial deformations of the Dnister HPP dam. The research also helps to find their variations due to water temperature at the definite depth. If the temperature deformation model deviates from the measurement results, the structure in those areas should be more thoroughly inspected and analysed. This may indicate the structure’s weakening due to natural aging processes or construction-related deficiencies. Deformations in the dam’s structure can lead to cracks, compromising its stability and watertightness. Dams can vary in shape, design features, depth, volume, and water temperature. So, it is important to customize the displacement model for each dam. Any deviation from the specified model may suggest defects due to abnormal temperature distribution and spatial displacements.