M2 Velocity Research Articles

Transcranial Doppler in Childhood Moyamoya: An Underutilized Tool?

BackgroundChildren with moyamoya are at high risk for incident and recurrent stroke. Transcranial Doppler (TCD) ultrasound is an attractive option to screen high-risk populations for moyamoya and to provide stroke risk stratification information due to its safety and cost-effectiveness. We used TCD to evaluate cerebral blood flow velocities in children with presurgical moyamoya and to determine if velocities differ between children with stable and unstable disease. MethodsFourteen participants aged ≤21 years with a radiographic diagnosis of moyamoya or moyamoya-like arteriopathy underwent a research TCD at a median age of 7.2 years. TCDs were performed outside of the setting of acute stroke and before surgical revascularization. Arteriopathy was classified as unstable if the participant had a stroke or transient ischemic attack within three months preceding the TCD. ResultsMiddle cerebral artery and internal carotid artery (ICA) blood flow velocities were elevated. The median M1 velocity was 138 cm/s (interquartile range [IQR] 106 to 168). Individual M1 flow velocities were a median of 5.0 S.D.s above age-based normative values. The median distal ICA velocity was 146 cm/s (IQR 124 to 163). Individual ICA flow velocities were a median of 5.9 S.D.s above normative values. Participants with unstable arteriopathy had higher M1 velocities compared with those with stable arteriopathy (170 vs 119 cm/s, P = 0.0003). We did not identify velocity differences based on comorbid conditions or age. ConclusionsThese preliminary data suggest that TCD is a promising tool for screening for cerebral arteriopathies in high-risk pediatric populations and assessment for unstable disease.

A New Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest

AbstractBuilding upon the insight that M1 velocity is the permanent component of nominal interest rates—see Benati (2020)—I propose a novel, and straightforward approach to estimating the natural rate of interest, which is conceptually related to Cochrane's (1994a) proposal to estimate the permanent component of Gross National Product (GNP) by exploiting the informational content of consumption. Under monetary regimes (such as inflation‐targeting) making inflation I(0), the easiest way to implement the proposed approach is to (i) project the monetary policy rate onto M1 velocity—thus obtaining an estimate of thenominalnatural rate—and then () subtract from this inflation's sample average (or target), thus obtaining therealnatural rate. More complex implementations based on structural vector autoregressions (VARs) produce very similar estimates. Compared to existing approaches, the one proposed herein presents two key advantages: (i) under regimes making inflation I(0), M1 velocity is equal, up to a linear transformation, to the real natural rate, so that the natural rate is, in fact,observed; and (ii) based on a high‐frequency estimate of nominal GDP, the natural rate can be computed at the monthly or even weekly frequency. In the U.S., Euro area, and Canada, the natural rate dropped sharply in the months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Likewise, the 1929 stock market crash was followed in the U.S. by a dramatic decrease in the natural rate.

Non‐Invasive Assessment of Damping of Blood Flow Velocity Pulsatility in Cerebral Arteries With MRI

BackgroundDamping of heartbeat‐induced pressure pulsations occurs in large arteries such as the aorta and extends to the small arteries and microcirculation. Since recently, 7 T MRI enables investigation of damping in the small cerebral arteries.PurposeTo investigate flow pulsatility damping between the first segment of the middle cerebral artery (M1) and the small perforating arteries using magnetic resonance imaging.Study TypeRetrospective.SubjectsThirty‐eight participants (45% female) aged above 50 without history of heart failure, carotid occlusive disease, or cognitive impairment.Field Strength/Sequence3 T gradient echo (GE) T1‐weighted images, spin‐echo fluid‐attenuated inversion recovery images, GE two‐dimensional (2D) phase‐contrast, and GE cine steady‐state free precession images were acquired. At 7 T, T1‐weighted images, GE quantitative‐flow, and GE 2D phase‐contrast images were acquired.AssessmentVelocity pulsatilities of the M1 and perforating arteries in the basal ganglia (BG) and semi‐oval center (CSO) were measured. We used the damping index between the M1 and perforating arteries as a damping indicator (velocity pulsatilityM1/velocity pulsatilityCSO/BG). Left ventricular stroke volume (LVSV), mean arterial pressure (MAP), pulse pressure (PP), and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) were correlated with velocity pulsatility in the M1 and in perforating arteries, and with the damping index of the CSO and BG.Statistical TestsCorrelations of LVSV, MAP, PP, and PWV with velocity pulsatility in the M1 and small perforating arteries, and correlations with the damping indices were evaluated with linear regression analyses.ResultsPP and PWV were significantly positively correlated to M1 velocity pulsatility. PWV was significantly negatively correlated to CSO velocity pulsatility, and PP was unrelated to CSO velocity pulsatility (P = 0.28). PP and PWV were uncorrelated to BG velocity pulsatility (P = 0.25; P = 0.68). PWV and PP were significantly positively correlated with the CSO damping index.Data ConclusionOur study demonstrated a dynamic damping of velocity pulsatility between the M1 and small cerebral perforating arteries in relation to proximal stress.Level of Evidence4Technical EfficacyStage 1

Two-dimensional tide-induced residual sand transport: Applications to the Jiangsu coast, China

The residual sand (D > 62.5 μm) transport (RST) refers to the tidally averaged rate of horizontal sand transport. Albeit much smaller than the peak rates, it determines the morphological evolution. The analytical expression for the tide-induced RST has been reported in the condition of one-dimensional tidal currents by van de Kreeke and Robaczewska (1993). Here we extended the analytical solution to two-dimensional. The constituents of the residual, M2, and M4 tidal current velocities were used to characterize the collinear tidal current in the orthogonal X and Y directions, i.e., cross-shore and alongshore, respectively, while the M2 tidal constituent is dominant in both directions. Based on the solution, RST is controlled by a series of triple interactions of the M2 tidal velocity in the X direction, M2 tidal velocity in the Y direction, and the residual or M4 velocity in the X or Y direction. The solution was applied to the tide-dominated continental shelf of the Jiangsu coast, China, where the alongshore current is much stronger than the cross-shore component. The results show that the triple interactions of the cross-shore M2 tidal velocity (UM2), the alongshore M2 tidal velocity (VM2), and the alongshore residual velocity account for the major parts of both the alongshore and cross-shore RST in the nearshore area. The RST patterns promote sand accumulation in the shallow nearshore area and generate a narrow and active conduit of coastal alongshore sand transport. These findings can be applied in similar marine environments to understand the effects of non-linear tidal interactions in RST.

Stock market liquidity, funding liquidity, financial crises and quantitative easing

Using data from 2003 to 2013, we examine liquidity linkages, originating with the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (FED) reserve creation, resulting from conventional and non-conventional monetary policy. These reserves, in turn, impact commercial bank credits/lending and U.S. stock market liquidity. We find that stock market liquidity varies across different monetary policy subperiods, where liquidity is strongly influenced by changes in bank lending and M2 money velocity. FED monetary policy that results in bank reserve increases generally stimulates bank lending and subsequently, is accompanied by stock liquidity gains. These linkages were observed during the 2007–09 recession and QE-1 subperiods, where increasing FED assets and bank credits were accompanied by stock liquidity increases. However, even though FED assets and excess bank reserves increased substantially during QE-2 and QE-3, we find no commensurate increases in bank lending/credits or M2 Velocity. We find that QE-2 and QE-3 had no effect or negative impacts on stock liquidity. These findings support our hypothesis that enhancements in stock market liquidity generally occur only when FED stimulus coincides with commensurate increases in bank lending. Additionally, we find positive effects of short-selling during periods of high market uncertainty, and positive effects from the FED being allowed to pay interest on excess reserves (IOER).

Money velocity and the natural rate of interest

M1 velocity is, approximately, the permanent component of the short-term rate. This implies that agents—in deciding how much wealth to allocate to non interest-bearing M1, as opposed to interest-bearing assets—almost uniquely react to permanent shocks to the opportunity cost, essentially ignoring transitory shocks. This suggests that money-demand models must be modified to allow for such distinct reaction to permanent and transitory variation in the opportunity cost of holding M1. Under monetary regimes making inflation stationary, permanent fluctuations in M1 velocity uniquely reflect, to a close approximation, permanent shifts in the natural rate of interest.

The Direct Calculation of Monetization Rate & the Monetization of Land and Housing: A Reconsideration of the Monetization Process in China during the Economic Reform

The monetization process in China during the economic reform in the past 40 years can be roughly divided into two phases. The first half is from the beginning of the reform and opening-up in 1978 to the early 90s of last century, focusing on products marketization and commodities monetization. The second half is from the late 90s of last century until now, including the establishment and development of the stock market, as well as the commercialization and monetization of land and housing. On the occasion of the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up, reconsidering the issue of monetization process” raised by Yi (1991), as an important main line that accompanies China’s economic growth and development, is very meaningful. Actually, for us, there are still two important issues worth exploring. The first is to scientifically calculate the proportion of monetized economy at the first phase of this process. And the second is to conduct a more in-depth study on the M2 missing puzzle” that exists at the current period. Obviously, the former can contribute to summarizing the experience and lessons of China’s past monetization, and providing a strong practical reference for current narrow monetization process of the Asian, African and Latin American developing countries along the OBOR”. The latter can help to understand China’s current monetary creation, monetary policy, and the important reasons for leading those resources to be shifted to virtual economy from real economy”. However, if we cannot provide a more accurate and clear answer to the core question, namely how to measure and calculate China’s monetization rate, then it will be very difficult for us to give any substantive advice on the monetization process in these developing countries. Therefore, for the former’s remaining problem, by considering those factors such as generalized trading technology, structural mutation and underground economy, this paper improves the monetization theory of Yi (1991) and creatively proposes a new theory and scientific procedure of directly calculating monetization rate, according to the V-shaped” turning point of the time series about traditional velocity of M0. And for the latter’s problem, this paper also analyzes the causes of the M2 missing puzzle” and its impacts on the real economy. Our calculation shows that the proportions of monetized economy were 31.7% and 42.0% in 1952 and 1978, respectively. And this proportion eventually achieved 100% in 1993. In addition, the growth of this proportion experienced three stages: the average growth was 4.7−6.1% and 6.0−6.7% per year from 1952 to 1960 and from 1978 to 1992, and minus 0.7−1.2% from 1961 to 1977, respectively. Obviously, China’s experience about this proportion of monetized economy with around 6.5% average annual growth can provide a strong practical reference for the current monetization process of those developing countries along the OBOR”. The two other contributions of this paper are as follows: firstly, it corrects the inaccuracy of velocity of money by traditional definition from 1952 to 1992, and provides the same period’s data about the monetization rate and these real velocities of money defined at different levels, which is consistent with the documentary evidence; secondly, by utilizing the theory and method of this paper, it finds that there may be an undervaluation to use the M2/GDP indicator to show the degree of monetization from 1952 to 1992 in traditional literature. Furthermore, we also find that although the narrow monetization factor is controlled, the average velocity of M2 in China still presents a downward trend, indicating that the velocity of money falling puzzle” and the high monetization mystery” for current Chinese economy remains valid. And further evidence shows that commoditization and monetization of land and housing may be one of the new important factors. After the crisis, excessive financial resources in China have been running into the land and real estate markets. And it suggests that the over-monetization of the land and housing may have already harmed the real economy. In addition, a further international comparison shows that, the completion of the narrow monetization process means that there is a V-shaped” inflection point of the time series about traditional velocity of M0 is a universal rule in both developed and developing countries. However, the velocity of M0 falling puzzle” of those developed countries in this century has still not disappeared, suggesting that exploration, analysis and interpretation of those causes of its formation may be another possible direction in future related research.

Shelf sea tidal currents and mixing fronts determined from ocean glider observations

Abstract. Tides and tidal mixing fronts are of fundamental importance to understanding shelf sea dynamics and ecosystems. Ocean gliders enable the observation of fronts and tide-dominated flows at high resolution. We use dive-average currents from a 2-month (12 October–2 December 2013) glider deployment along a zonal hydrographic section in the north-western North Sea to accurately determine M2 and S2 tidal velocities. The results of the glider-based method agree well with tidal velocities measured by current meters and with velocities extracted from the TPXO tide model. The method enhances the utility of gliders as an ocean-observing platform, particularly in regions where tide models are known to be limited. We then use the glider-derived tidal velocities to investigate tidal controls on the location of a front repeatedly observed by the glider. The front moves offshore at a rate of 0.51 km day−1. During the first part of the deployment (from mid-October until mid-November), results of a one-dimensional model suggest that the balance between surface heat fluxes and tidal stirring is the primary control on frontal location: as heat is lost to the atmosphere, full-depth mixing is able to occur in progressively deeper water. In the latter half of the deployment (mid-November to early December), a front controlled solely by heat fluxes and tidal stirring is not predicted to exist, yet a front persists in the observations. We analyse hydrographic observations collected by the glider to attribute the persistence of the front to the boundary between different water masses, in particular to the presence of cold, saline, Atlantic-origin water in the deeper portion of the section. We combine these results to propose that the front is a hybrid front: one controlled in summer by the local balance between heat fluxes and mixing and which in winter exists as the boundary between water masses advected to the north-western North Sea from diverse source regions. The glider observations capture the period when the front makes the transition from its summertime to wintertime state. Fronts in other shelf sea regions with oceanic influence may exhibit similar behaviour, with controlling processes and locations changing over an annual cycle. These results have implications for the thermohaline circulation of shelf seas.

Tide, Wind, and River Forcing of the Surface Currents in the Fraser River Plume

ABSTRACTA long-term record of surface currents from a high-frequency radar system, along with near-surface hydrographic transects, moored current meter records, and satellite imagery, are analyzed to determine the relative importance of river discharge, wind, and tides in driving the surface flow in the Fraser River plume. The observations show a great deal of oceanographic and instrumental variability. However, averaged quantities yielded robust results. The effect of river flow, which determines buoyancy and inertia near the river mouth, was found by taking a long-term average. The resulting flow field was dominated by a jet with two asymmetric gyres; the anticyclonic gyre to the north had flow speeds consistent with geostrophy. The mean flow speed near the river mouth was 14.3 cm s–1, while the flow further afield was 5 cm s–1 or less. Wind stress and surface currents were highly coherent in the subtidal frequency band. Northwesterly winds drive a surface flow to the southeast at speeds of nearly 30 cm s–1. Southeasterly winds drive a surface flow to the northwest at speeds reaching 20 cm s–1; however, there is more spatial variability in speed and direction relative to the northwesterly wind case. A harmonic analysis was used to extract the tidally driven flows. Ellipse parameters for the major tidal constituents varied considerably in both alignment and aspect ratio over the radar domain, in direct contrast to a barotropic model which predicted rectilinear flow along the Strait of Georgia. This is a result of water filling and draining the shallow mud flats north of the Fraser's main channel. The M2 velocities at the surface were also weaker than their barotropic counterparts. However, the shallow water constituent MK3 was enhanced at the surface and nearly as strong as the mean flow, implying that non-linear interactions are important to surface dynamics.

Next Global Crisis: Greatest Recession in the History of Capitalism is at the Doorstep

The main purpose of this paper is to warn academia and general public about the inevitability of the impending global economic recession. Heuristically paper introduces concept of macroeconomic gambling trap within the wider context of global economic history. Macroeconomic gambling trap is then applied to the current situation. The underlying cause for the impending crisis is the growth of debt in the West. Primary progenitor of debt problem is the world’s largest debtor nation, United States. Since the 1970s and the unilateral destruction of the golden standard US political and military power guarantee status of the dollar as world reserve currency despite absence of its backing in gold. Debt explosion caused alienation of financial sector from the real economy in most western countries. The impending crisis is foreshadowed by a Great Recession (Financial crisis of 2007/2008). The Great Recession was only temporally stopped by means of unorthodox monetary policy – with quantitative easing programs and by keeping interest rates at record low, even negative, levels. However, this will make forthcoming collapse only more severe. After analysis of the influence of gold standard collapse on the outcome of the Cold War the paper utilizes specific economic indicators, such as velocity of money M2 for USD, growth in total debt, CAPE ratio for aggregate US stock market, US labour force participation and index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange to indicate the immediacy and the inevitability of the next global recession.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al.(1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Demand for M2 at the Zero Lower Bound: The Recent U.S. Experience

In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al. (1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors.

Velocity of Money in Post-Reform China: 1978-2011

This study examines the proximate determinants of velocity of money in post-reform China. The study confirms that China is still in the first phase (declining) of U-shaped velocity behavior witnessed in other industrialized countries. The empirical results also show that the decline in M2 velocity is more pronounced than that of M1 velocity, and that the long-run determinants of velocity are primarily influenced by transactions demand for money and to a lesser extent by alternative cost of holding money. Finally, the study brings into the focus of the increasing role of financial innovation in explaining velocity behavior of monetary aggregates in China.

Tide-induced suspended sediment transport: Depth-averaged concentrations and horizontal residual fluxes

In coastal and estuarine waters, depth-averaged suspended sediment concentration (DASSC) at a fixed observation site has two sources: local resuspension and advection along a horizontal gradient. The empirical decomposition method can separate the horizontal residual suspended sediment flux (HRF) into several terms, e.g., Eulerian flux, Stokes' drift and tidal pumping. A simple depth-averaged 1D model is solved analytically for an observational site over one semi-diurnal tidal cycle to explore the determinants of the forcing factors comprising residual, M2 and M4 current velocities, mean water depth, M2 tidal amplitude and the DASSC gradient. The analytical solutions provide clear physical explanations of tidal DASSC variations and HRF. The solutions are applied to fit and explain the observations at a fixed station in a macro-tidal channel located along the Jiangsu Coast, China. The results suggest a dependence of the M4 DASSC variation on resuspension induced by the M2 velocity, and the dependence of the M2 DASSC variation on the advection and resuspension induced by the interaction between the M2 and M4 velocities. The horizontal DASSC gradient results in large seaward tidal pumping, which is offset by the landward Lagrangian flux to produce a reduced landward HRF.

Real Money Demand, Income, and Interest Rates in Senegal: Is there a Long-Run Stable Relation?

In this paper, I examine the stability of the long-run relationship between real money demand, income, and interest rates in Senegal. Using advances in unit root and co-integration, I test for co-integration between M1 velocity, output, and the interest rate. By virtue of the fixed exchange rate regime, I used both the three months French Treasury bill and the deposit rate to proxy the opportunity cost of holding money. I used Stock and Watson (1993) DOLS in addition to an ECM. Quarterly data ranging from 1970:Q4 to 2006:Q4 is used in the analysis, and the results reveal evidence of co-integration between real money demand, income, and the interest rate. For this study, I used both an ECM co-integration test and Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2/3), 231-254, 1988) co-integration method.

Development of Electronic Finance and M2 Velocity

Development of Electronic Finance and M2 Velocity

A study of estuarine flow using the roving adcp data

A study of estuarine flows during a neap tide was performed using 13-hour roving acoustic Doppler current profiles (ADCP) and conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profiles in the Altamaha River estuary, Georgia, U.S.A. The least-squared harmonic analysis method was used to fit the tidal (M2) component and separate the flow into two components: the tidal and residual (M2-removed) flows. We applied this method to depth-averaged data. Results show that the M2 component demonstrates over 95% of the variability of observation data. As the flow was dominated by the M2 tidal component in a narrow channel, the tidal ellipse distribution was essentially a back-and-forth motion. The amplitude of M2 velocity component increased slightly from the river mouth (0.45 m/sec) to land (0.6 m/sec) and the phase showed fairly constant values in the center of the channel and rapidly decreasing values near the northern and southern shoaling areas. The residual flow and transport calculated from depth-averaged flow shows temporal variability over the tidal time scale. Strong landward flows appeared during slack waters which may be attributed to increased baroclinic forcing when turbulent mixing decreases.

The Effects of Financial Innovations on the Measurement, Control and Efficacy of the M1 and M2 Aggregates

This paper describes the financial innovations hypothesis that M1, but not M2, has been significantly affected by the introduction and growth of these new assets. An alternative hypothesis, called the competitive markets hypothesis here, has implications that are nearly the opposite of the financial innovations hypothesis. It suggests that the demand, desired use and composition of M2 were unaffected by the introduction of so called interest bearing checking accounts, but that the introduction of money market accounts shifted both the M2 multiplier and its demand or velocity. The article then assesses the validity of the financial innovations hypothesis by examining whether decisions involving the turnover rate for checkable deposits, currency preferences, money multipliers and M1 and M2 demand or velocity have been affected by these innovations, especially in the manner suggested by the financial innovations hypothesis. The results support the competitive market hypothesis.

Financial Sector Weakness and the M2 Velocity Puzzle

Deterioration in the link between M2 and GDP, along with large prediction errors, led the Federal Reserve to downgrade M2 as a reliable indicator in 1993. We argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind this unusual pattern of M2 growth. When constructing measures of M2 based on banks' and thrifts' capital positions, we obtain superior M2 forecasting results and a more stable relationship between M2 and the ultimate goals of policy. M2 may contain useful information when there are no major disturbances to depository institutions.

The Effects of Mortgage Prepayments on M2

Mortgage prepayments can contribute significantly to fluctuations in M2 growth rates. These mortgage prepayment effects are primarily driven by certain rules of mortgage-backed-security (MBS) insurers that require mortgage servicers to hold in M2-type deposits the prepayment proceeds due to MBS investors. This paper provides a methodology for estimating prepayment effects on M2. The effects are estimated separately for refinancing and home sales. The results indicate that excluding the mortgage prepayment effects from M2 produces smoother monthly growth rates. The stability of the relationship between money and GDP as measured by M2 velocity is also increased. Refinancing prepayments account for most of the prepayment effects on M2.