Various Drivers Of Change Research Articles

Impact assessment of multiple pressures on ecosystem services with a state and transition model: Application to Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows

A significant challenge in the integration of ecosystem services into decision-making processes lies in effectively capturing the dynamics of marine socio-ecological systems, including their evolutionary pathways, equilibrium states, and tipping points. This paper explores the evolutionary trajectories of a vital marine ecosystem endemic to the Mediterranean Sea: the Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows, in response to various drivers of change. A state-and-transition model is employed to assess the ecosystem services provided by P. oceanica across different states defined by selected transitions, such as overfishing, fragmentation, pollution, and invasion by non-native species. To apply this model, scientific expertise is combined with field data generated using the Ecosystem-Based Quality Index to evaluate the conservation status of P. oceanica. This integrated approach allows for the representation of the ecosystem services offered by the meadows across different states, leveraging ecological data. The findings highlight the disproportionate impact on provisioning services, particularly sea urchins and commercial fish production, which suffer the most under various stressors. Notably, when these services decline to critical levels, the meadows cease to provide significant benefits. Finally, a synthesized representation is presented, merging ecological insights with monitoring data, offering a framework that is more accessible to stakeholders and decision-makers.

Bridging the Gaps: Exploring Aquatic–Terrestrial Connectivity through the Trait-Based Ecology of Riparian Predatory Arthropods

Riparian predatory arthropods represent one of the main trophic links between lotic and terrestrial ecosystems along riverine landscapes. The use of the trait-based approach promises to enhance our understanding of how these predatory communities interact with their environment through their response to various drivers of change and through their trophic interactions. We reviewed the scientific literature focused on the interaction between drivers of community change (natural and anthropogenic) and the functional traits and functional diversity components that characterize riparian ground beetles and spiders and, ultimately, on their role as cross-ecosystem trophic links. We highlight land use changes and river regulations as the strongest drivers that change the communities we study, often through various interacting mechanisms that favor the replacement of riparian specialists with generalist species, thus altering aquatic–terrestrial connectivity and the resilience of riverine arthropod consumers. Tropical regions and traits related to community responses to extreme climatic events (e.g., submersion tolerance and desiccation resistance) are less studied, while inconsistent patterns are noticed for well-studied traits, especially for spiders (e.g., their feeding preference response to aquatic subsidy availability and their body size response to flooding and bank hydrological connectivity). Future research should focus on the aforementioned drivers and knowledge gaps, along with the functional diversity changes in predatory arthropod communities along environmental and anthropogenic impact gradients, in order to improve riparian conservation.

The role of drivers of change in the transition to agroforestry

Dutch policy strives to increase the amount of agroforestry. This pilot study aimed to research the forces and obstacles for this growth, in particular the role of various drivers of change. Therefore we conducted a case study in Lingezegen Park (near Arnhem, The Netherlands), using the transition model of Van der Meulen et al. as a basis. This model describes the connection between the transition of the social and physical realms. Important drivers of change influencing the social and physical realms in Lingezegen Park are the establishment of the park itself, but also the relations between and roles of the various stakeholders and the presence of a change agent. Data was collected via Rapid Rural Appraisal in combination with visualization studies and in depth interviews. The interviews were analyzed using a thematic analysis, with the help of NVIVO-software. The case of Lingezegen Park clearly shows that the transformation of the social realm intertwines with developments in the physical realm. The development of the park, both a change in the physical as well as the social realm, made way for new initiatives in sustainable farming systems such as agroforestry. The overall conclusion is that for the transition towards agroforestry, in addition to all kinds of on-site innovation, it is also necessary to take due account of exogenous important drivers of change, especially the functioning of local networks, land use planning and the presence of change agents. The combined effect of this largely determines opportunities for the growth of agroforestry.

Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, changes and effects

In the Western Mediterranean Sea, forage fishes have changed in abundance, body condition, growth, reproduction, and distribution in the last decades. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain these changes, including increase in fishing mortality; changes in environmental conditions affecting species fitness, and planktonic productivity and quality; recovery of top predators; and increase in competitors. We investigated the main drivers and changes of the pelagic ecosystem and their effects using an ecosystem-based modelling approach. Specifically, we (1) quantified the potential historical contribution of various drivers of change, (2) investigated changes in temporal trends and spatial distributions of main ecosystem components, and (3) identified ecological consequences of these changes in top predator and competitors, their fisheries and ecosystem traits during 2000–2020. We updated an established Ecopath food-web model representing the Spanish and French Mediterranean sub-areas (GSA06 and GSA07) in 2000 with recent available data. We applied the temporal dynamic Ecosim module, and tested historical time series of fishing effort, fishing mortality and environmental factors as potential drivers. Observed biomass and landings of key species were used to validate model projections. A spatial-temporal Ecospace model was developed to project species distribution changes. Results showed historical biomass and catch changes driven by a combination of high fishing pressure and environmental change (i.e. increase in temperature and salinity, and decline in primary productivity). Small pelagic fish showed significant temporal changes and predicted shifts in their distributions, following a latitudinal gradient. Predators and competitors showed changes as well, displaying heterogeneous spatial patterns, while fisheries landings declined. Overall, results matched observations (e.g., decline of sardine, fluctuations of anchovy and increases in bluefin tuna) and illustrated the need to complement traditional assessments with integrative frameworks to move towards an ecosystem-based approach in the Mediterranean. They also highlighted important knowledge gaps to guide future research in the region.

Assemblage urbanism: the role of heritage in urban placemaking

PurposeThe paper explores the potential value of urban assemblage theory as a conceptual framework for understanding the role heritage has in social sustainable urban placemaking. The authors conceptualise urban placemaking as a dynamic and complex social assemblage. Heritage is one of the many dimensions of such a complex and dynamic urban assembly. Based on the approach to urban assemblage theory, the authors aim to uncover how postindustrial city-making unfolds. When approaching the case studies, the authors ask the following: Whose city for which citizens are visible through the selected case studies? How is social sustainability achieved through heritage in urban placemaking?Design/methodology/approachThe main research material is derived from theoretical literature and the testing of an assemblage methodological approach through three Norwegian urban regeneration case studies where heritage partake in urban placemaking. The three case studies are the Tukthus wall (what is left of an 19th century old prison), the Vulkan neighbourhood (an 19th century industrial working area) and Sørengkaia (an 19th century industrial harbour area) in Oslo, Norway. The three case studies are representing urban regeneration projects which are common worldwide, and not at least in a European context.FindingsThe paper reveals the dynamic factors and processes at play in urban placemaking, which has its own distinct character by the uses of heritage in each of the case study areas. Placemaking could produce “closed” systems which are stable in accordance with its original functions, or they could be “open” systems affected by the various drivers of change. The paper shows how these forces are depending on two sets of binary forces at play in urban placemaking: forces of “assemblages” co-creating a place versus destabilising forces of “disassembly” which is redefining the place as a process affected by reassembled placemaking.Research limitations/implicationsFor research, the authors focus on the implications this paper has for the field of urban heritage studies as it provides a useful framework to capture the dynamic complexity of urban heritage areas.Practical implicationsFor practice, the authors state that the paper can provide a useful platform for dialogue and critical thinking on strategies being planned.Social implicationsFor society, the paper promotes the significance in terms of fostering an inclusive way of thinking and planning for urban heritage futures.Originality/valueThe paper outlines dynamics of urban regeneration through heritage which are significant for understanding urban transformation as value for offering practical solutions to social problems in urban planning. The assemblage methodological approach (1) makes awareness of the dynamic processes at play in urban placemaking and makes the ground for mapping issue at stake in urban placemaking; (2) becomes a source for modelling urban regeneration through heritage by defining a conceptual framework of dynamic interactions in urban placemaking; and (3) defines a critically reflexive tool for evaluating good versus bad (heritage-led) urban development projects.

FloCan—A Revised Checklist for the Flora of the Canary Islands

The flora of the Canary Islands has been subject to botanical studies for more than 200 years. Several biodiversity databases are available for the archipelago. However, there are various drivers of change in real biodiversity and the knowledge about it constantly needs to be kept track of. Island floras are both: exposed to species loss and to species introductions, either through natural processes or by anthropogenic drivers. Additionally, the evolution of endemic plant species plays a substantial role. Endemic species are sensitive to population decline due to small population sizes and possible low competitiveness against incoming species. Additionally, there is continuous progress in systematics and taxonomy. Species names or their taxonomic attribution can be modified. Here, we check published plant lists for the Canary Islands and literature, and compile currently accepted taxa into an updated checklist. For this FloCan checklist, several sources were compiled, checked for completeness and quality, and their taxonomy was updated. We illustrate how far plant names are considered in regional or global databases. This work represents the current state of knowledge on Canary Island plant diversity, including introduced and recently described taxa. We provide a comprehensive and updated basis for biogeographical and macroecological studies. Particularly, the number of non-native species is being extended substantially. The adaptation to standard international nomenclature supports integration into large-scale studies.

Climate change and water abstraction impacts on the long-term variability of water levels in Lake Bracciano (Central Italy): A Random Forest approach

Study RegionLake Bracciano has been historically used as a strategic water reservoir for the city of Rome (Italy) since ancient times. However, following the severe water crisis of 2017, water abstraction has been completely stopped. Study FocusThe relative impact of the various drivers of change (climatological and management) on fluctuations in lake water level is not yet clear. To quantify this impact, we applied the Random Forest (RF) machine learning approach, taking advantage of a century of observations. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionSince the late 1990s the monthly variation in lake water levels has doubled, as has variation in monthly abstraction. Increased variation in annual cumulated precipitation and a rise in mean air temperature have also been observed. The RF machine learning approach made it possible to confirm the marginal role of temperature, the increasing role of abstraction during the last two decades (from 24 % to 39 %), and the key role played by the increased precipitation variability. These results highlight the notable prediction and inference capabilities of RF in a complex and partially unknown hydrological context. We conclude by discussing the limits of this approach, which are mainly associated with its capacity to generates scenarios compared to physical based models.

Rapidly Changing Cities: Working with Socio-Ecological Systems to Facilitate Transformation

Cities across the world are changing rapidly. Driven by population growth, migration, economic decline in rural areas, political instabilities, and even more recently, the Covid-19 pandemic, urban systems and spaces are changing to accommodate moving people and new functions. In many cases, these trends contribute to increased levels of inequality, poverty, food insecurity, and unemployment, while the warnings about the impact of climate change continue to raise concerns. Though some have called this a new urban revolution, others have referred to, in a more apocalyptic turn, the end of cities. In response, many writers are encouraging smarter cities, whereas others are promoting a post-urban context and a return to small communities. High levels of uncertainty are characteristic, along with increased intensities of complexity, rapid fluctuation and unbounded experimentation. This raises many questions about the nature and implication of change in different cities situated in vastly contrasting contexts. This thematic issue of Urban Planning focuses on five narratives from cities across the world to illustrate various drivers of change and their implications for urban design and planning. The editorial introduces these narratives, as well as commentaries from leading academics/practitioners and highlights several divergent experiences and common threats. It argues that to deal with the rapid and often large-scale changes, planners need to view human settlements as socio-ecological systems and plan for change and uncertainty to facilitate the co-evolution of humans and nature.

Mapping human‒wildlife conflict hotspots in a transboundary landscape, Eastern Himalaya

The Kangchenjunga Landscape, an important repository of biodiversity, faces several challenges owing to various drivers of change. Human‒wildlife conflict (HWC) is one of such issue that transcends social, economic, environmental, as well as national and international borders among the three participating countries – Bhutan, India, and Nepal – making it a complex, transboundary issue. Based on the existing literature, earth observation data, and geographic information system, we used maximum entropy along with relevant environmental predictor variables to model and map HWC hotspots. The results suggested that about 19 per cent of the area within the landscape is at high risk of human‒wildlife conflict, with an anthropogenic factor ‒ distance to roads ‒ as the top predictor. Some protected areas are at higher risk than others. The Himalayan subtropical pine forest ecoregion is a high HWC zone (~63 per cent), followed by the Terai‒Duars savannah and grasslands ecoregion (~43 per cent). They also revealed that the low- and mid-elevation zones are prone to conflict due to greater forest fragmentation; patchy protected areas are disconnected from each other, and not big enough for large mammals like elephants and tigers. Human-wildlife conflict is observed to vary across different elevation and climate region of the landscape and highly correlated with forest fragmentation of the midhills. Hence, a holistic approach at the landscape level is needed for tackling human‒wildlife conflict. Connecting good habitats by restoring fragmented inter and intra-country areas would be an effective measure to mitigate human‒wildlife conflict.

Tidally‐averaged flows in the interior Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta: Trends and change attribution

AbstractThe hydrology of the San Francisco Bay‐Delta estuary (the Delta) has been significantly modified over the past 150 years to serve a variety of human needs for water supply and food production, albeit with adverse ecological impacts. These adverse impacts, in concert with evolving societal values, have motivated change in the estuary's water management to promote ecosystem restoration goals while continuing to support human uses. Understanding historical flow patterns, as well as the environmental functions provided by these flow patterns, is critical to restoration planning. Building upon previous work on outflow trends from the Delta to San Francisco Bay, this paper evaluates historical trends in key interior Delta flows spanning nine decades (1922–2016) and presents an attribution of these trends to various anthropogenic drivers. We reconstructed historical time series records at four key locations in the interior of the Delta; these time series represent tidally‐averaged flows that are intensively managed and are of great importance to the beneficial uses of water in the region. We derived several scenario‐based flow time series at these same four locations to assist in attributing change to a variety of drivers, including reservoir and export pumping operations, in‐Delta barrier and gate operations, and upstream water diversions. Flow changes were measured relative to 1920‐level land use and water management conditions. We find the four interior Delta locations to have distinct seasonal flow trends and, in general, unique responses to various drivers of change. Our work highlights the complex nature of historical flow changes in a highly‐managed estuarine ecosystem, and the types of modifications that would be necessary to reverse these changes.

Drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems facing increased salinity intrusion in coastal areas of the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

Agricultural systems are increasingly considered complex adaptive systems. They are dependent on the integrated nature of biophysical and social sub-systems, continuously adapt to changing conditions and often display non-linear responses to various drivers of change at multiple scales. This research applied the lens of complex adaptive systems theory to analyze current and historical drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems to increased salinity intrusion in coastal areas of the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam since 1975. The analysis is based on 27 in-depth interviews with officials of local and national authorities as well as 198 semi-structured interviews and 11 focus group discussions conducted with farmers along three salinity transects in both deltas in 2015-2016. The results show that a dynamic interplay and feedback of various drivers of change such as policy intervention, farmers’ desire for profit maximization, changing salinity conditions, and technological development at different levels of the deltaic social-ecological system have shaped the changes and adaptations in agricultural systems over the last decades. In response to increased salinity intrusion, as exemplified by the historic salinity levels recorded in the Mekong Delta in 2015–2016, various adaptation options have been considered. These include adaptations that would lock-in agricultural production in particular systems or constrain changes in others, which is potentially problematic in light of the high uncertainty related to future changes. The study recognizes the need to apply both incremental and transformative changes and select adaptation pathways which allow for continuous change or that are reversible in order to avoid lock-ins and address future challenges. Additionally, attention should be drawn to interactions and feedbacks in future changes within and across adaptation pathways in order to prevent further increases in salinity intrusion and lock-in effects in agricultural systems within the deltas.

Drivers of Change and Sustainability in Linked Social–Ecological Systems: An Analysis in the Volta River Basin of Ghana, West Africa

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the nature and relative importance of various drivers of change is crucial for sustainable management of natural resources and in prioritizing management efforts, allocating limited resources, and understanding cumulative effects. For this article, we employed structured an expert judgments approach to identify, characterize, and assess the relative importance of the key biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of change within the Volta River Basin, West Africa. Precipitation variability, water availability, land use change, drought events, and population growth were perceived as most important, while biodiversity loss, social conflicts, pest and disease occurrence, urbanization, and pollution were viewed as less critical. A majority of these drivers were characterized as “slow” acting processes as compared to rapidly changing drivers. Intra- and interexpert groups agreement were found to be significant and convergent, indicating the reliability of the results. The implications of these results for sustainable water resources management and agricultural production are discussed.

Understanding social–ecological vulnerability with Q-methodology: a case study of water-based ecosystem services in Wyoming, USA

A broad range of participatory methods can be employed to understand the vulnerability of social–ecological systems threatened by various drivers of change including climate change and land-use change. Understanding this vulnerability is critical for managing natural resources, particularly water resources that flow across jurisdictional boundaries, and support conflicting uses. This paper demonstrates Q-methodology, a promising participatory method infrequently applied in the vulnerability context, with a case study investigation of the vulnerability of stakeholders reliant on water-based ecosystem services derived from the Shoshone National Forest in Wyoming, USA. The approach identified four distinct viewpoints regarding vulnerability, including an environmental perspective, agricultural perspective, Native American perspective, and recreation perspective. The distinct viewpoints highlighted disparate levels of importance related to 34 water benefits, such as commercial irrigation, oil and natural gas extraction, river-based fishing, and cultural and spiritual use. A diverse range of drivers of change threatening important water benefits were also identified, including pollution, too much management intervention, and development of recreation opportunities. The potential benefits of Q-methodology for vulnerability assessment include a rank-ordering exercise that elicits preferences for tradeoffs, and statistical derivation of a small number of perspectives about the topic.

Tree and timberline shifts in the northern Romanian Carpathians during the Holocene and the responses to environmental changes

High altitude environments are experiencing more rapid changes in temperature than the global average with the risk of losing essential ecosystem services in mountain environments. The Carpathians Mountains are regarded as hosting Europe's most pristine mountain ecosystems, yet the paucity of past environmental records limits our understanding of their sensitivity to the various drivers of change. A multi-proxy palaeoecological approach (plant macro-remains, pollen, charcoal) applied to three Holocene sediment sequences (between 1540 and 1810 m a.s.l.) in the Rodna Mountains documents past treeline and timberline shifts in response to climate change and human impact to anticipate the likely future responses. Our results indicate that forest reacted sensitively to past climate conditions. The timberline had exceeded an elevation of 1540 m a.s.l. by 10,200 cal. yr BP, when summers were warmer than today. The treeline remained below 1810 m a.s.l. at this time and reached its maximum elevation after 8500 cal. yr BP, when winter temperatures became milder. Cool summer conditions probably caused a lowering of the timberline and an extension of the treeline ecotone from 4900 cal. yr BP, a process accentuated by human impact from the Bronze Age (3500 cal. yr BP) onwards. The anticipated upslope tree movements as a consequence ongoing global warming are not yet clearly visible in our records, but will more probably take place in abandoned agricultural areas and be counter-balanced by re-enforced anthropogenic pressure elsewhere. Pinus sylvestris was the dominant tree species in the timberline under a warm and dry climate, when fires were frequent, during the early Holocene (11,250–10,200 cal. yr BP), while Picea abies became dominant in the timberline and Pinus mugo in the treeline ecotone, respectively from 10,200 cal. yr BP to the present. Abies alba became a significant component of the timber over the last four millennia. The anticipated future warmer and moister climatic conditions will favour the persistence of P. abies as well as A. alba. However, A. alba is more sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance, which implies that in places with continuing farmland pressure, A. alba may be less prevalent than P. abies in the future. Anthropogenic pressure is expected to increase the proportion of tree species characteristic of more disturbed forests and consequently threaten biodiversity with important implications for mountain ecosystem services.

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.

Generating Agricultural Landscapes for Alternative Futures Analysis: A Multiple Attribute Decision‐Making Model

AbstractThis paper describes the development of a multi‐attribute decision model that generates depictions of the agricultural landscape for use in alternative futures studies. The fundamental assumption of the model is that changes in agricultural land cover are due to rational decisions made by an agricultural producer that are based on the attributes of the producer, the crops, and the field. The model first evaluates any changes in the land base due to conversion of farmland to non‐agricultural uses, and then uses field descriptions, crop characteristics, and the decision paradigm of an agricultural producer to determine the preferred crop for each field under a particular policy scenario. By cycling over the fields for each time‐step in the simulation, future depictions of the agricultural system that respond to various drivers of change are generated. An example implementation of an alternative futures model is provided to show how this method can be used to examine alternative policy or management options.