Surface Wind Variability Research Articles

Response of Subpolar North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Variability in Surface Winds on Different Timescales

Abstract A large part of the variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus uncertainty in its estimates on interannual time scales comes from atmospheric synoptic eddies and mesoscale processes. In this study, a suite of experiments with a 1/12° regional configuration of the MITgcm is performed where low-pass filtering is applied to surface wind forcing to investigate the impact of subsynoptic (<2 days) and synoptic (2–10 days) atmospheric processes on the ocean circulation. Changes in the wind magnitude and hence the wind energy input in the region have a significant effect on the strength of the overturning; once this is accounted for, the magnitude of the overturning in all sensitivity experiments is very similar to that of the control run. Synoptic and subsynoptic variability in atmospheric winds reduce the surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea, resulting in anomalous advection of warm and salty waters into the Irminger Sea and lower upper-ocean densities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Other effects of high-frequency variability in surface winds on the AMOC are associated with changes in Ekman convergence in the midlatitudes. Synoptic and subsynoptic winds also impact the strength of the boundary currents and density structure in the subpolar North Atlantic. In the Labrador Sea, the overturning strength is more sensitive to the changes in density structure, whereas in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, the role of density is comparable to that of the strength of the East Greenland Current. Significance Statement A key issue in understanding how well the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is simulated in climate models is determining the impact of synoptic (2–10 days) and subsynoptic (shorter) wind variability on ocean circulation. We find that the greatest impact of wind changes on the strength of the overturning is through changes in energy input from winds to the ocean. Variations in winds have a more modest impact via changes in heat loss over the Labrador Sea, alongside changes in wind-driven surface currents. This study highlights the importance of accurately representing the density in the Labrador Sea, and both the strength and density structure of the East Greenland Current, for the correct representation of overturning circulation in climate models.

A climatological overview of surface currents in the Arabian Gulf with special reference to the Exclusive Economic Zone of Qatar

AbstractThis study derives the climatology of surface currents in the Arabian Gulf using the current velocities obtained from the Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS) for the period 1993–2019. It reveals distinct temporal and spatial variability in the surface current speeds induced by the variability in surface winds, bathymetry and the changes in the lateral gradients in density. The mean speed of the Iranian Coastal Current (ICC) during summer reaches up to 0.33 m·s−1 along the coast of Iran, while the mean speed of Arabian Coastal Current (ACC) reaches up to 0.26 m·s−1 along the coast of Saudi Arabia. We found the occurrence of 2 major and 1 minor cyclonic eddies in the annual, seasonal and monthly climatology, while these eddies are more prevalent during summer. The major cyclonic eddy in the central Gulf develops in May and persists till November with varying patterns, and decays in December. The climatological mean current speeds are higher during summer compared to winter, due to the seasonal changes in thickness of the surface layer by the stratification/destratification processes. The highest mean current speeds along the coast of Qatar are found in June and the lowest in winter months. The highest annual, monthly and seasonal mean current speeds are observed along the north and northeast coast of Qatar, while the lowest are observed along the west coast and southeast coast of Qatar. Interannual variability in surface current speeds is evident, with notable links with the El Niño–Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The annual mean current speeds show positive trends, of the order of 0.06–0.14 cm·s−1·year−1 in the offshore regions and 0.05–0.24 cm·s−1·year−1 in the nearshore regions, wherein the highest positive trend is observed off Ras Laffan and the lowest off Dukhan.

Decadal Variability of Ice‐Shelf Melting in the Amundsen Sea Driven by Sea‐Ice Freshwater Fluxes

AbstractThe ice streams flowing into the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are losing mass due to changes in oceanic basal melting of their floating ice shelves. Rapid ice‐shelf melting is sustained by the delivery of warm Circumpolar Deep Water to the ice‐shelf cavities, which is first supplied to the continental shelf by an undercurrent that flows eastward along the shelf break. Temporal variability of this undercurrent controls ice‐shelf basal melt variability. Recent work shows that on decadal timescales the undercurrent variability opposes surface wind variability. Using a regional model, we show that undercurrent variability is induced by sea‐ice freshwater fluxes, particularly those north of the shelf break, which affect the cross‐shelf break density gradient. This sea‐ice variability is linked to tropical Pacific variability impacting atmospheric conditions over the Amundsen Sea. Ice‐shelf melting also feeds back onto the undercurrent by affecting the on‐shelf density, thereby influencing shelf‐break density gradient anomalies.

Atmospheric Fronts Shaping the (Sub)Mesoscale SST‐Wind Coupling Over the Southern Ocean: Observational Case

AbstractSurface wind divergence is largely modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient through vertical momentum mixing and pressure adjustment. Here, the two mechanisms affecting the coupling strength between SST gradient and surface wind divergence are examined during an atmospheric front passage in the Southern Ocean. This event is also recorded by an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV). The reanalysis product (ERA5) revealed that downward momentum mixing is the dominant mechanism on the daily time scale. The coupling strength during the day when the atmospheric front passed over declined by 75%, compared to the adjacent days. This implies that the atmospheric front can partially attenuate the SST gradient effect on the surface wind divergence. Furthermore, a decade‐long statistic also showed a decreasing trend of SST‐wind coupling when the atmospheric fronts occur more. Additionally, after removing the mesoscale weather variation, the USV observations showed a remarkable SST imprint on the atmospheric boundary layer in the oceanic submesoscale regime, which denotes the scale below the deformation radius (∼16 km). The submesoscale air‐sea interaction processes also displayed decreased air‐sea coupling strength during atmospheric front passage. This is possible as the vertical velocity induced by the atmospheric front can compensate for the daily averaged uprising vertical velocity due to surface wind convergence. This analysis indicates that the atmospheric front can diminish the coupling between the SST gradient and surface wind divergence, which contrasts the existing statistical results showing that atmospheric fronts tend to enhance such coupling.

Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model

Abstract. Using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, physical processes underlying Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability and predictability are investigated. Our model simulations constrained by atmospheric reanalysis and observed sea surface temperature broadly capture a multidecadal variability in the observed sea ice extent (SIE) with a low sea ice state (late 1970s–1990s) and a high sea ice state (2000s–early 2010s), although the model overestimates the SIE decrease in the Weddell Sea around the 1980s. The low sea ice state is largely due to the deepening of the mixed layer and the associated deep convection that brings subsurface warm water to the surface. During the high sea ice period (post-2000s), the deep convection substantially weakens, so surface wind variability plays a greater role in the SIE variability. Decadal retrospective forecasts started from the above model simulations demonstrate that the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability can be skillfully predicted 6–10 years in advance, showing a moderate correlation with the observation. Ensemble members with a deeper mixed layer and stronger deep convection tend to predict a larger sea ice decrease in the 1980s, whereas members with a larger surface wind variability tend to predict a larger sea ice increase after the 2000s. Therefore, skillful simulation and prediction of the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability require accurate simulation and prediction of the mixed layer, deep convection, and surface wind variability in the model.

Mechanisms for Abrupt Summertime Circumpolar Surface Warming in the Southern Ocean

Abstract In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced unprecedented surface warming and sea ice loss—a stark reversal of the sea ice expansion and surface cooling that prevailed over the preceding decades. Here, we examine the mechanisms that led to the abrupt circumpolar surface warming events that occurred in late 2016 and 2019 and assess the role of internal climate variability. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that these recent circumpolar surface warming events were triggered by a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which decreased northward Ekman transport and accelerated the seasonal shoaling of the mixed layer. We emphasize the underappreciated effect of the latter mechanism, which played a dominant role and amplified the warming effect of air–sea heat fluxes during months of peak solar insolation. An examination of the CESM1 large ensemble demonstrates that these recent circumpolar warming events are consistent with the internal variability associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), whereby negative SAM in austral spring favors shallower mixed layers and anomalously high summertime SST. A key insight from this analysis is that the seasonal phasing of springtime mixed layer depth shoaling is an important contributor to summertime SST variability in the Southern Ocean. Thus, future Southern Ocean summertime SST extremes will depend on the coevolution of mixed layer depth and surface wind variability. Significance Statement This study examines how reductions in the strength of the circumpolar westerlies can produce abrupt and extreme surface warming across the Southern Ocean. A key insight is that the mixed layer temperature is most sensitive to surface wind perturbations in late austral spring, when the regional mixed layer depth and solar insolation approach their respective seasonal minimum and maximum. This heightened surface temperature response to surface wind variability was realized during the austral spring of 2016 and 2019, when a dramatic weakening of the circumpolar westerlies triggered unprecedented warming across the Southern Ocean. In both cases, the anomalously weak circumpolar winds reduced the northward Ekman transport of cool subpolar waters and caused the mixed layer to shoal more rapidly in the spring, with the latter mechanism being more dominant. Using results from an ensemble of coupled climate simulations, we demonstrate that the 2016 and 2019 Southern Ocean warming events are consistent with the internal variability associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These results suggest that future Southern Ocean surface warming extremes will depend on both the evolution of regional mixed layer depths and interannual wind variability.

Robustness of the Stochastic Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Wind Variability in Sea Surface Fluxes

Abstract High-resolution numerical models have been used to develop statistical models of the enhancement of sea surface fluxes resulting from spatial variability of sea surface wind. In particular, studies have shown that flux enhancement is not a deterministic function of the resolved state. Previous studies focused on single geographical areas or used a single high-resolution numerical model. This study extends the development of such statistical models by considering six different high-resolution models, four different geographical regions, and three different 10-day periods, allowing for a systematic investigation of the robustness of both the deterministic and stochastic parts of the data-driven parameterization. Results indicate that the deterministic part, based on regressing the unresolved normalized flux onto resolved-scale normalized flux and precipitation, is broadly robust across different models, regions, and time periods. The statistical features of the stochastic part of the model (spatial and temporal autocorrelation and parameters of a Gaussian process fit to the regression residual) are also found to be robust and not strongly sensitive to the underlying model, modeled geographical region, or time period studied. Best-fit Gaussian process parameters display robust spatial heterogeneity across models, indicating potential for improvements to the statistical model. These results illustrate the potential for the development of a generic, explicitly stochastic parameterization of sea surface flux enhancements dependent on wind variability.

In Situ Observation of Near-Surface Wind Seasonal Variation on the Southern Coast of Sri Lanka

The characteristics of local surface wind are closely related to the assessment of wind power resources and the oscillation period of offshore wind turbines. In this research, we analyzed near-surface wind observation data from the southern coast of Sri Lanka, comparing the surface wind variation characteristics across different seasons. Through spectral analysis, we discuss the wind stability and oscillation period, aiming to provide information for the management strategies and oscillation issues of offshore wind turbines in the North Equatorial Indian Ocean to ensure their stable operation. Our findings showed that the Indian summer monsoon dominated the seasonal surface wind variation in the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The local monsoon period began in mid-May and ended in mid-October, during which stable southwest winds prevailed with an average maximum 10 m wind speed exceeding 6.0 m/s. In contrast, surface wind was unstable and weaker during autumn and winter. The surface wind speed exhibited a clear diurnal oscillation throughout the year. The wind speed power spectral density exhibited clear peaks at periods of 24 h, 12 h, and 6 h.

Near-inertial oscillations in the deep Gulf of Mexico

Near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) are important for maintaining turbulent mixing that affects ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and climate. The spatial and temporal variability of NIOs in the deep part of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) has rarely been reported. In this study, a collection of moored current observations was used to examine the spatiotemporal variability of NIOs in the GoM. In the upper layer (0–800 m), a strong seasonal variability of NIOs appears in the eastern GoM with larger amplitudes in winter than in summer and is attributed to the seasonal variability of surface winds and mixed layer depth. In the bottom layer (within 400 m above the bottom), strong NIOs are found in the middle and eastern GoM and show weaker seasonal variability. While winds still matter for the seasonal variability of NIOs in the bottom layer in the eastern GoM, low-frequency flows generally play a more important role in regulating NIOs through interactions with topography, particularly on the continental slope.

Ambiguous Variations in Tropical Latent Heat Flux since the Years around 1998

Abstract The tropical latent heat flux (LHF) has experienced a significant increase under the background of global warming in the past four decades. However, since the years around 1998, the long-term LHF variations in the tropics have been found to be quite different in various flux products. Three different trends in the LHF, climbing, near zero, and declining, are suggested by five widely used flux products, which hinders our knowledge of the actual LHF variations. Although there are buoy observations in the tropics, these observations are hard to use to evaluate flux products as they have been assimilated and/or used as benchmarks in the flux data production. This study aims to identify credible long-term LHF variations since 1998. A linear model decomposing the LHF variations into contributions from sea surface wind U and air–sea humidity differences is first applied. The linear model results show that the LHF variations have been more positively connected to U variations since 1998. Evidence from in situ and remote sensing observations is subsequently employed to identify how U has varied recently. Both Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array (GTMBA) buoy observations (from 82 buoys) and a multisensor merged satellite product support a slightly downward trend in U in the last two decades. Such a weakening of U is not conducive to oceanic evaporation and leads to a reduced LHF. Consequently, a declining LHF under a weakening U since the emergence of the global warming “hiatus” in approximately 1998 might be more convincing in the sense of data accuracy and physical consistency. Significance Statement The latent heat flux acts as the language of air–sea interactions. This study aims to examine how the tropical latent heat flux has changed since the emergence of the global warming slowdown in approximately 1998. The most striking finding is that the long-term variations in the tropical latent heat flux are fairly inconsistent in several widely used flux products in the last two decades. The sea surface wind variation is found to be the primary contributor to the latent heat flux variation after 1998. Observational evidence from buoy and remote sensing data is hence employed to clarify the actual sea surface wind and the latent heat flux variations.

Biases in wind speed measurements due to anemometer changes

This research presents a case study of the biases and discontinuities that were introduced in observed long-term mean wind-speed and gust data-series due to anemometer changes in a meteorological station in northern Spain, operated by the Spanish State Meteorological Agency: San Sebastian-Igueldo. Field and wind-tunnel experiments with predefined conditions have been presented in the literature, however this research uses a real case study to assess the impact of anemometer changes on wind speed measurements due to three factors being: (i) the 3-cup anemometer model (SEAC vs. THIES companies); (ii) sensor height (∼19.95 m vs. ∼20.45 m) and (iii) sensor age (20-years old vs. new). Our results show (a) substantial biases in the measured wind speed and daily peak wind gusts, with the new THIES anemometer reporting stronger surface winds than the old SEAC anemometer; (b) opposing biases under weak (negative) and moderate-strong (positive) winds; and (c) significant breakpoints in the long-term wind data-series, which highlight the importance of data homogenization. National Weather Services and climate assessment groups will benefit from these findings since errors in wind speed and gust measurements can be minimized by implementing systematic observation protocols. Robust anemometer observations provide a basis for accurate quantification of the magnitude of changes and the variability of surface winds.

VARIABILITAS MUSIMAN SUHU PERMUKAAN LAUT DAN ANGIN DI LAUT ARAFURA

Research on sea surface temperature (SST) and wind in the Arafura Sea is very important to answer various processes and phenomena that occur in the water column, for example upwelling and downwelling phenomena, the influence of monsoon winds, ENSO and LaNina phenomena, mixing of water masses, forecasting fishing areas, determination of marine cultivation areas, and so on. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution and variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind and to examine the correlation of SST with wind speed and direction in the Arafura Sea. SST data is obtained from the AQUA MODIS satellite which is downloaded on the website http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov. Wind data obtained from the site: ftp://ftp.ifremer.fr/ifremer/cersat. The results of the analysis show that the SST in the Arafura Sea varies seasonally with a range of 23–34oC and a variation of 3.01-4.60%. The wind speed ranges from 0.02-10 m/s with a variation of 40.07-47.76%. There is a strong correlation between SST and wind speed and direction based on latitude and longitude. The correlation between wind speed and SST ranges from -0.01 to -0.87, while the correlation between wind direction and SST ranges from 0.52 and -0.71. In certain waters there is a positive linear correlation of SST with wind direction of 0.18-0.78

Unravelling the roles of Indian Ocean Dipole and El-Niño on winter primary productivity over the Arabian Sea

The Northern Arabian Sea (NAS) is a highly productive basin in the Indian Ocean. The marked seasonal variation of surface winds has the major control on the oceanic primary productivity in the NAS. A regional physical and biogeochemical coupled model was used to examine the control of marine physical processes on the primary productivity in the NAS. It is found that the pure positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PPIOD) has positive anomalies, whereas a co-occurrence of El-Niño and positive IOD (CEPIOD) events leads to negative anomalies in winter-time Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration during 2000–2018. The CEPIOD events are characterized by weaker winter convective mixing than PPIOD events. The evolution of this discrepancy in the convective mixing process is sufficiently explained by the presence of weaker northeasterly (dry and cold) winds (<2.4 m/s) and a lower net heat flux loss (<- 47 W/m2) during CEPIOD as compared to the PPIOD events. Higher convective mixing results in intense convective cooling, a deeper mixed layer depth (MLD), increased nutrients’ injection through entrainment, and a stronger winter bloom, whereas weak convective mixing causes warming and a shallow MLD, resulting in weak winter bloom. The higher-mixing and surface-cooling condition was observed more often in PPIOD than in CEPIOD years. These conditions promote vertical convective mixing that maintains nutrients’ supply in the near-surface layers and supports primary productivity in PPIOD years.

Analysis of the 10–20-Day Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indian Ocean Using Surface Winds

The 10–20-day mode of surface wind is examined in the Indian Ocean, with special reference to the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, equatorial, southern, and southeastern Indian Ocean during a strong (1994), weak (2002), and normal (1995) southwest monsoon season. Results indicate the 10–20-day mode of surface winds in the Bay of Bengal, southern Indian Ocean, and southeastern Indian Ocean is more energetic than in other regions. The strongest 10–20-day signal is found to be in the southeastern Indian Ocean, where 45% of surface wind variability can be explained by this mode during a strong monsoon year. Composite analysis based on a time series in this region revealed a positive surface wind anomaly that appears at 60°E, centered on 15°S, and propagates zonally eastward to 90°E before reflecting back to propagate westward and then disperse off the coast of Madagascar. It is proposed that this oscillating positive wind anomaly is a feature of the southernmost cell of the 10–20-day convective double-cell structure that has extended farther south into the southern Indian Ocean and that this mode connects the northern and southern Indian Ocean through surface winds and atmospheric convection through the motion of the linked double-cell structure.

Surface wind over Europe: Data and variability

AbstractThis work improves the characterization and knowledge of the surface wind climatology over Europe with the development of an observational database with unprecedented quality control (QC), the European Surface Wind Observational database (EuSWiO). EuSWiO includes more than 3,829 stations with sub‐daily resolution for wind speed and direction, with a number of sites spanning the period of 1880–2017, a few hundred time series starting in the 1930s and relatively good spatial coverage since the 1970s. The creation of EuSWiO entails the merging of eight different data sets and its submission to a common QC. About 5% of the total observations were flagged, correcting a great part of the extreme and unrealistic values, which have a discernible impact on the statistics of the database. The daily wind variability was characterized by means of a classification technique, identifying 11 independent subregions with distinct temporal wind variability over the 2000–2015 period. Significant decreases in the wind speed during this period are found in five regions, whereas two regions show increases. Most regions allow for extending the analysis to earlier decades. Caution in interpreting long‐term trends is needed as wind speed data have not been homogenized. Nevertheless, decreases in the wind speed since the 1980s can be noticed in most of the regions. This work contributes to a deeper understanding of the temporal and spatial surface wind variability in Europe. It will allow from meteorological to climate and climate change studies, including potential applications to the analyses of extreme events, wind power assessments or the evaluation of reanalysis or model‐data comparison exercises at continental scales.

Seasonal Differences of Decadal Thermocline Depth Anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Abstract The thermocline depth in the tropical Indian Ocean has experienced dramatic decadal variations in recent decades. Using analysis and reanalysis datasets, we find that the decadal thermocline depth anomalies show large seasonal differences. The seasonal differences are modulated by two major modes. The first mode shows a zonal dipole pattern, with opposite thermocline depth anomalies in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and western Indian Ocean, and is prominent in summer and winter. The second mode is characterized by marked thermocline depth anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean and is significant in spring and fall. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillation in these two modes has increased substantially in the twenty-first century. Their phase change is in good agreement with the observed thermocline depth anomalies in each season. The results also show that the seasonality of the decadal thermocline depth anomalies arises directly from surface wind variations within the Indian Ocean. The first mode is mainly caused by equatorial zonal wind anomalies. The second mode is dominated by local wind stress curl anomalies. These wind anomalies are both significantly correlated with the ENSO-like SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean. The findings improve our understanding of the decadal thermocline anomalies, and will help to better evaluate their impact on seasonal phase-locked oceanic and atmospheric processes.

Characterizing Global Sea Surface Local Wind Variability From ASCAT Data

Recent advances in the sea surface wind quality control of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) show that spatial wind variability within a resolution cell of 25 km × 25 km, namely the subcell wind variability, is highly correlated with the ASCAT quality indicators, such as the wind inversion residual (maximum likelihood estimator, MLE) and the singularity exponent (SE) derived from singularity analysis. This opens up opportunities for quantifying the instantaneous spatial wind variability over the global sea surface. In this paper, it is assumed that the spatial wind variability is linearly proportional to the temporal variation of buoy sea surface winds time-series following the Taylor’s hypothesis. As such, the moored buoy winds with 10-minute sampling are used to examine the subcell wind variability. Then the sensitivity of ASCAT quality indicators to the subcell wind variability is evaluated. The results indicate that although SE is more sensitive than MLE in characterizing the wind variability, they are mainly complementary in flagging the most variable winds. Consequently, an empirical model is derived to relate the buoy wind vector variability to the ASCAT MLE and/or SE values. Although the overall procedure is based on the one-dimensional temporal analysis and such empirical model cannot fully represent the two-dimensional spatial variability, it leads for the first time to the development of an ASCAT-derived local wind variability product. The empirical method presented here is straightforward and can be applied to other scatterometer systems.

Assessment of Indian Ocean upwelling changes and its relationship with the Indian monsoon

Present study aims to assess the Indian Ocean upwelling zones and its relationship with the Indian monsoon. Assessment of upwelling zones are examined by using fine resolution satellite sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration and reanalysis nitrate (NO 3 ), surface wind speed, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and precipitation products. This study uses the high-resolution (12 km) satellite era reanalysis Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) data for the evaluation of upwelling and summer monsoon relationship. Long-term and decadal trends of SST, chlorophyll-a and NO 3 are estimated by employing the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope method for the summer monsoon (June–September) and winter monsoon (October–December) season. Long-term seasonal trends suggest the significant warming and weakening of upwelling over western tropical Indian Ocean, however, decadal trends reveals that signal is more prominent during the period 1999–2008. In the northern Bay of Bengal, the NO 3 trend shows significant seasonality. A zonal SST gradient-based index (upwelling index (UI)) is adopted to identify the upwelling zones, results are presented for the prominent upwelling zones of Somalia and Oman. The UI is used to understand the long-term and decadal variation of Somalia and Oman upwelling intensity with the Indian summer monsoon MSLP, surface wind and rainfall variations. Results suggest that Oman upwelling intensity is highly correlated with the monsoon heat low over the northwest India and Pakistan and Indian summer monsoon rainfall over the core region. However, MSLP over the Indian subcontinent and rainfall over the west coast of India is correlated with the Somalia upwelling intensity. Here, we show that surface wind over the central Arabian Sea (monsoon trough) region are correlated with the intensity of UI of Oman (Somalia). The decadal study provides compelling evidence that the relationship between MSLP, near surface wind, upwelling and ISMR weakens over time in Somalia coast but in the Oman coast this relationship strengthens with recent decades. • Long-term and decadal trends of SST, chlorophyll-a and NO 3 are investigated over the Indian Ocean. • Significant warming and decline of chlorophyll-a is depicted in the western and North Indian Ocean. • Recovery of upwelling zones in the western Indian Ocean is evident in the recent decade (2009-2018). • Strong correlation between the Oman upwelling intensity and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is found in the recent decades.

Diurnal Variation of Surface Wind Divergence in the Maritime Continent Using ASCAT and SeaWinds Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data

This study investigates the diurnal variation of surface wind divergence in the seas of the Maritime Continent by using satellite scatterometer observations and atmospheric reanalysis data. This is the first study to demonstrate the distribution and seasonal variation of the diurnally varying surface winds in the Maritime Continent in terms of wind divergence. Wind divergence develops from the coasts of the islands toward the center of the seas and dominates during the afternoon and evening hours. Wind convergence dominates over the seas during the nighttime and morning hours. The offshore extensions of the wind divergence and convergence from the coast differ regionally and thus show the asymmetric patterns with respect to the center of the seas. In particular, strong wind divergence develops from the southern coasts of the Java Sea and the Arafura Sea to extend northward beyond the center of the seas. The diurnal amplitudes of wind divergence vary seasonally and reach a peak in September in most of the seas. The switching times between wind divergence and convergence are almost fixed throughout the year regardless of the monsoon reversal.

Evaluation and Uncertainty of Radioxenon Transport with a Mesoscale Model after the February 2013 Underground Test in North Korea

Abstract The transport of radioxenon released from the February 2013 underground nuclear weapons test in North Korea was analyzed at two receptors—one at the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty site Rn58 in Russia (400 km downwind) and a second at Rn38 in Japan (1000 km downwind). Transport was modeled with two ensembles of mesoscale simulations, one generated with varying initial and lateral boundary conditions taken from the Global Forecasting System uncertainty ensemble, and a second created from different parameterizations and surface conditions. The wind variability was similar for the two ensembles and consistent with observations at 925 mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) but not at the surface. Biases in calculated surface winds and the radioxenon concentration in the ensembles were attributed mainly to poor simulation of the sea breeze at both locations and mountain lee affects at Rn38 in Japan. These wind regimes affected the timing of the surface radioxenon plume at Rn58 and its duration at Rn38. Surface wind variability induced by terrain and land–sea contrast (the sea breeze) also had a significant effect on the surface winds and plume dynamics, including blocking of flow approaching elevated terrain near Vladivostok and the west side of Japan. Increased plume uncertainty was seen at night because of surface wind variability. Measured surface chemical variability was larger than found in the first European Tracer Experiment in central Europe. The study found that horizontal model resolution contributes to uncertainty but not as much as vertical resolution, boundary layer parameterizations, and assimilation of surface meteorological data near the receptor.