Variations In Relative Prices Research Articles

Home Production with Time to Consume

We construct a general equilibrium model with home production where consumers choose how to spend their off-market time using market consumption purchases. The time-intensities and productivities of different home production activities determine the degree to which variation in income and relative market prices affects both the composition of expenditure and market labor hours per worker. When accounting for time to consume, homothetic utility functions can still generate non-linear expansion paths as wages increase. For the United States substitution effects due to relative price changes dominate income effects from wage growth in contributing to the rise in the services share and the fall in hours per worker. Quality improvements to goods and services have roughly kept pace with each other, so that changes to sectoral produc- tion efficiencies are the primary driver of relative price variation.

Consumption composition and macroeconomic dynamics

AbstractWe analyze the transitional dynamics of an economic model with heterogeneous consumption goods where convergence is driven by two different forces: the typical diminishing returns to capital and the dynamic adjustment in consumption expenditure induced by the variation in relative prices. We show that this second force affects the growth rate if the consumption goods are produced with technologies exhibiting different capital intensities and if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not equal to one. Because the aforementioned growth effect of relative prices arises only under heterogeneous consumption goods, the transitional dynamics of this model exhibits striking differences with the growth model with a single consumption good. We also show that these differences in the transitional dynamics can give raise to large discrepancies in the welfare cost of shocks.

Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Changes: The Impact of Trade Openness

In the transfer problem debate with Keynes, Ohlin suggests that income effects should lessen relative price variations necessary to produce trade surpluses, and that that impact is related to the degree of openness of the economy. We illustrate this mechanism in a simple model, and take it to the data. First, using data for developed and emerging economies for the period 1970-2011, we identify events of sudden stops of capital flows and of abrupt real exchange rate depreciations. Then, we investigate the relationship between openness to trade, real exchange rate depreciations, and changes in current account and trade balances during these events. We find that, controlling for real exchange rate changes, more open economies experience a larger increase in current account and trade balances. In other words, our results indicate that improvements in current account and trade balances are accompanied by a smaller real exchange rate depreciation in more open economies.

The Relative Price of Services

Prices of GDP relative to the exchange rate increase with income per capita, which is known as the Penn‐effect. This is generally attributed to services being cheaper relative to goods in poorer countries. In this paper we re‐examine the Penn‐effect based on a new set of PPPs for industry output. These are estimated in an augmented Geary–Khamis approach using prices for final goods, exports, and imports. The resulting multilateral PPPs cover 35 industries in 42 countries for the year 2005. We find large variation in relative prices of various services industries. In particular the Penn‐effect appears to be mostly due to the rapidly rising output prices of non‐market services. This seems related mainly to the high labor intensity of that sector.

The Great Shift: Macroeconomic Projections for the World Economy at the 2050 Horizon

We present growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Our results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon.

Comment

Comment

Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets

Why do investors trade a lot in foreign assets and hold so little of them in their portfolios? This paper shows that both observations can arise naturally in the presence of nondiversifiable nontraded consumption risk when each country specializes in production, preferences exhibit consumption home bias, and asset markets are incomplete. Using a general equilibrium two-country, two-sector (tradable and nontradable) model of the world economy with production I show that low diversification occurs because variations in relative prices (i) increase the riskiness of foreign assets and (ii) facilitate risk-sharing across countries. Large and volatile capital flows are necessary to take advantage of international risk premia differentials that occur in response to productivity changes in the nontradable sector. I characterize the optimal portfolio holdings, the evolution of the investment opportunity set, the risk premium, and the dynamics of capital flows using a new methodology for solving dynamic general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and portfolio choice.

Home Bias and High Turnover: Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Incomplete Markets

Why do investors trade a lot in foreign assets and hold so little of them in their portfolios? This paper shows that both observations can arise naturally in the presence of nondiversifiable nontraded consumption risk when each country specializes in production, preferences exhibit consumption home bias, and asset markets are incomplete. Using a general equilibrium two-country, two-sector (tradable and nontradable) model of the world economy with production I show that low diversification occurs because variations in relative prices (i) increase the riskiness of foreign assets and (ii) facilitate risk-sharing across countries. Large and volatile capital flows are necessary to take advantage of international risk premia differentials that occur in response to productivity changes in the nontradable sector. I characterize the optimal portfolio holdings, the evolution of the investment opportunity set, the risk premium, and the dynamics of capital flows using a new methodology for solving dynamic general equilibrium models with incomplete markets and portfolio choice.

The border effect in small open economies

This paper examines the importance of the national border in relative price variability in two neighboring, small open economies. Using monthly frequency price data of narrowly defined, homogenous consumer products, it finds that the time-series variation in within-country relative prices is about the same in the two countries. After controlling for distance, relative price variation is significantly higher across than within countries. The border is the dominant determinant of relative prices, even after accounting for nominal exchange rate variability and local culture as represented by language spoken. Our estimates of the border effect are largely immune to the bias identified in Gorodnichenko and Tesar [Gorodnichenko, Y., Tesar, L., 2006. Border effect or country effect? Seattle is 110 miles from Vancouver after all. Unpublished manuscript].

How do consumers switch between close substitutes when price variation is small? The case of cigarette types

Past empirical studies report ambiguous results regarding the magnitude and significance of substitution between different types of smoking tobacco. Since all types of tobacco contain nicotine this is quite surprising. Using a 20-year rotating panel data set of Norwegian households and a multinomial logit model, we find evidence that consumers switch between tobacco types: first, estimated price effects on choice probabilities have mostly expected signs, albeit their statistical significance vary across different metrics, second, household characteristics affect tobacco composition significantly. These findings suggest that consumers’ choices are ‘locked’ when the relative price variation is small, as has been the case in most of the data period, but that larger changes could induce large-scale switching between tobacco types. Our conjecture is that there is a latent potential for switching, which will become manifest if prices change sufficiently. Similar considerations are likely to have relevance for other close substitutes.

General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon

Abstract: In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium model to study the impact of a trade shock and a tariff reform on household poverty for an archetype developing country. Unlike other studies, we present the income distribution of each household group as a Beta statistical distribution. In contrast to other studies, this paper presents the poverty lines as being endogenous. With this specification, the poverty line will change following a variation in relative prices. With the new distributions and poverty line, the poverty levels of the base year are compared with the ex-post values. Foster, Greer and Thorbecke's (1984) poverty measures are used. We work with the Cameroon household survey data of 1995–96. We consider two scenarios. The first is a 30 percent fall in the world price of the country's export crop and the second is a reduction of 50 percent in the country's import tariffs. For the first simulation, results indicate a drop in all household incomes and a decrease in the poverty line. Unilateral trade liberalization also has negative consequences on all household incomes. As in the first simulation, the poverty line decreases with a unilateral trade liberalization. In the trade liberalization simulation, the poverty line effect counters the income effect in most cases analyzed. In the other simulation, the poverty line effect attenuates the decrease in the poverty measures.

How Does Monetary Policy Affect the Poor? Evidence from the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) has a history of monetary stability and low inflation. Nevertheless, there is substantial variation in relative prices within some UEMOA countries, in particular in the price of food relative to other e

Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime: How Damaging are Currency Crises?

We use consumer price data for 205 cities/regions in 21 countries to study PPP deviations before, during and after the major currency crises of the 1990s. We combine data from industrialized nations in North America (Unites States, Canada and Mexico), Europe (Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal), Asia (Japan and South Korea), and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) with corresponding data from emerging market economies in South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Columbia) and Asia (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand). By doing so, we confirm previous results that both distance and border explain a significant amount of relative price variation across different locations. We also find that currency attacks had major disintegration effects by considerably increasing these border effects and by raising within-country relative price dispersion in emerging market economies. These effects are found to be quite persistent since relative price volatility across emerging markets today is still significantly larger than a decade ago.

Economic Integration and the Exchange Rate Regime: How Damaging are Currency Crises?

We use consumer price data for 205 cities/regions in 21 countries to study PPP deviations before, during and after the major currency crises of the 1990s. We combine data from industrialized nations in North America (Unites States, Canada and Mexico), Europe (Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal), Asia (Japan and South Korea), and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) with corresponding data from emerging market economies in South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Columbia) and Asia (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand). By doing so, we confirm previous results that both distance and border explain a significant amount of relative price variation across different locations. We also find that currency attacks had major disintegration effects by considerably increasing these border effects and by raising within-country relative price dispersion in emerging market economies. These effects are found to be quite persistent since relative price volatility across emerging markets today is still significantly larger than a decade ago.

Axiomatic and Economic Approaches to International Comparisons

The paper considers the problem of choosing a multilateral system of index numbers in order to make aggregate price and quantity comparisons between many countries and regions. The problems involved in choosing functional forms in order to make these comparisons are both theoretically and empirically more difficult than the problems involved in choosing a bilateral index number formula. The great variation in relative prices and quantities in the international context means that the choice of a multilateral method is empirically important: different methods will give very different answers. The paper reviews ten classes of multilateral methods both from the viewpoint of the axiomatic approach as well as the economic approach. A new system of 11 desirable axioms or properties for multilateral systems is suggested. With respect to the economic approach, the concept of a superlative bilateral index number formula (which can adequately model substitution effects) is adapted to the multilateral context. Each of the 10 classes of multilateral methods is evaluated from the axiomatic and economic perspectives. Four classes of methods are identified as being `best' They are all superlative and satisfy slightly different sets of axioms.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

The existence of factor substitution in the primary aluminium industry: A multivariate error-correction approach using Norwegian panel data

This paper presents an econometric analysis of factor demands in the Norwegian primary aluminium industry using annual plant-level panel data. The translog cost function approach is applied, and a multivariate error-correction model of the cost shares of labour, raw materials and electricity is estimated. Capital is assumed tobe quasi-fixed. The hypothesis of fixed input coefficients is rejected for this industry, but the estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities suggest that relative price variations have limited effect on conditional factor demands.

Unemployment, wage indexation and commercial policies

This paper shows the effects of wage indexation schemes in the presence of relative price variations. In particular, it is shown that indexation schemes which seem reasonable can nevertheless leave the level of employment vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. The indexation scheme which isokates the employment level from the effects of price variations is derived, and the effects of commercial policies in the presence of indexation are examined.

Forecasting with Input–Output Matrices: Are the Coefficients Stationary?

The incorporation of an input–output matrix into a macroeconomic forecasting model is a common practice. Are the input–output coefficients stationary, however? This study uses a set of 27 annual input–output matrices for Canada for the period 1961-87 to explore this question. It is found that, for 64 major coeficients for goods-producing industries, the majority have time trends with autocorrelated deviations from trend. In many cases the trend can be explained by relative price variations or by the movement of income per person. It is also found that, contrary to an earlier study, value coeficients are no more stable than are volume coeficients. It is recommended that this time series behaviour of input–output coefficients be taken into account when forecasting.

Prices and industrial transformation

Abstract One of the contradictions of neo-classical economic theory concerns its view of relative prices. On the one hand it is relative prices that determine the market's equilibrium position and decide what transactions will take place. On the other hand, the pattern of relative prices, or expressed differently the price structure, has been regarded as more or less immutable. Variations in relative prices have been considered short-term phenomena, after which, in time, an adaptation has taken place which has restored the initial situation. The same line of thought was also held by Wesley Mitchell, who in the dispersion of relative prices found a reflection of business cycles, but he maintained that the price system is “yet stable in the essential balance of its interrelations”.1 F.C. Mills cited Mitchell as his authority in his comprehensive work The Behavior of Prices, and although he felt compelled to raise objections to the inference that relative prices varied rhythmically with the business cycle, he still considered that there was a limit to change in relative prices, i.e. the price structure had a fundamental stability.2

Inflation, relative price variation, and inequality

In this paper the impact of prices on inequality in the distribution of individual welfare is examined using an explicit behavioral model. An index of relative inequality is defined over the distribution of individual welfare measures which are functions of prices, total expenditure, and the demographic attributes of each consuming unit. Price effects are determined by comparing the relative inequality measure at the existing prices to that attained at a reference vector of prices. The total impact of prices on inequality is decomposed into an effect attributable to inflation alone and that due solely to relative price variation. The effect of price changes on the relative welfare level of the group of households at the lower end of the welfare distribution is also considered.