Lake Level Variations Research Articles

Attribution of hydrological droughts in large river-connected lakes: Insights from an explainable machine learning model

Large lakes play an important role in water resource supply, regional climate regulation, and ecosystem support, but they face threats from frequent extreme drought events, necessitating an understanding of the mechanisms behind these events. In this study, we developed an explainable machine learning (ML) model that combines the Bayesian optimized (BO) long short-term memory (LSTM) model and the integrated gradients (IG) interpretation method to simulate and explain lake water level variations. In addition, the hydrological drought trends and extreme drought events in Poyang Lake from 1960 to 2022 were identified using the standardized water level index (SWI) and run theory. The analysis revealed that the frequency of hydrological droughts in Poyang Lake increased from 1960 to 2022, especially in the autumn after 2003. By selecting the flows of the catchment and the Yangtze River as the input features, the BO-LSTM model accurately predicted the water level of Poyang Lake. The IG method was then used to interpret the prediction results from three aspects: the importance ranking of the input features, their roles in the seasonal drought trends, and their roles in extreme drought events. The results indicate that (1) the most influential factor affecting the water level of Poyang Lake was the inflow of the Ganjiang River in the catchment. (2) The increase in the lake outflow caused by the Yangtze River's draining effect was the reason for the intensification of the autumn drought in Poyang Lake. (3) The extreme hydrological drought events were primarily caused by low catchment inflows. Overall, this research provides a new approach that balances prediction accuracy with interpretability for predicting and understanding the hydrological processes in large river-connected lakes. Moreover, this method was also applied to the attribution analysis of hydrological drought in Poyang Lake, providing theoretical support for regional water resource management.

Decoding the complex fluvial-lacustrine sedimentary interactions: Insights from the Neogene Guantao Formation in the Bohai Bay Basin and Modern Poyang Lake, China

Small-scale lake level variations lead to significant landward/basinward shifts in the depositional system, thereby facilitating the widespread development of fluvial-lacustrine interaction sedimentary systems. Such systems are commonly found in low-gradient shallow-water continental down-warped lacustrine basins, which are favorable for the formation of composite reservoir-caprock assemblages. Nevertheless, our understanding of the sedimentary stratigraphy of the Neogene Guantao Formation remains limited due to the complex and variable spatial and temporal associations between fluvial and lacustrine deposits. Integrated analysis of the geomorphology and stratigraphy of the modern Poyang Lake Basin and ancient Bohai Bay Basin (BBB) allows us to develop a process-based fluvial-lacustrine interaction model of shallow-water depositional system. Three physiographic zones are identified based on seasonal lake shoreline migration during a certain geological sequence unit, namely fluvial-dominated zone (FDZ), fluvial-lacustrine interaction zone (FLIZ) and lacustrine-dominated zone (LDZ), respectively. The FDZ is always above the maximum lake shoreline without affection by lake basin water body and is characterized by channelized dendritic pattern of distributary channels with positive rhythmic cycles. The FLIZ is a dynamic interaction region between the maximum lake shoreline and the lowest lake shoreline. Reticular distributary channels, delta front and prodelta/lake deposits vertically superimpose and dominate the system that is featured by complex sandbody, stacked positive and negative rhythms and strong water body segmentation. The LDZ, away from the fluvial effect, was identified below the lowest lake shoreline exhibiting polycentric sheet water body, dominated by lacustrine mudstone interspersed with thin sheet-like sandstone. These results shed light on the spatial and temporal sedimentary heterogeneity in such dynamic fluvial-lacustrine interaction systems. The proposed fluvial-lacustrine interaction model may serve as a valuable analogue for identifying sedimentary types and predicting sandstone reservoirs in similar shallow-water settings ranging from continental down-warped lacustrine basins to cratonic basins, and fault-depression basin gentle-slope belts.

Single-grain luminescence dating of Manas Lake paleoshorelines reveals late quaternary glacial meltwater forced lake level highstand in arid Central Asia

The spatiotemporal patterns of late Quaternary lake evolution, along with their responses to climatic changes and glacial meltwater in the westerlies-dominated Central Asia, remain unclear primarily due to the lack of well-dated records spanning across glacial and interglacial cycles. In this study, we investigated five well-preserved paleolake shoreline sequences, 15–27 m above the modern lake basin of the now-dry Manas Lake, a representative terminal lake in the Junggar Basin of arid Central Asia. Both single aliquot and single-grain K-feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR) dating protocols were applied to 26 shoreline samples to reconstruct a lake level variation for Manas Lake over the past 90 kyr. The reliability of the K-feldspar pIRIR dating was tested through assessment of luminescence characteristics and comparison of single-grain and single-aliquot K-feldspar pIRIR Des. The results indicate that the highest water levels (∼25 m deep) occurred during late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 (∼80 ka) and MIS 3 (31–27 ka). A lake level 20 m above modern lake basin (a.m.l.b.) occurred from the last deglaciation to the early Holocene (14–10 ka) and again in the late Holocene (3.4–0.3 ka). The lake level changes of Manas Lake are decoupled from observed Westerlies precipitation changes over the past 90 kyr. This decoupling suggests enhanced glacial meltwater sourced from the high Tianshan Mountains, triggered by higher mean summer temperatures, worked together with Westerlies precipitation drove periods of lake level highstand in Manas Lake during late MIS 5, late MIS 3, and early Holocene periods.

Holocene lake shrinkage on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau revealed by K-feldspar single-grain pIRIR dating of paleo-shorelines

As a vital component of the “Asian water tower”, lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) significantly influence the regional ecosystems and economies and they are also an effective sentinel of climate change. However, the temporal and spatial patterns of lakes and the related hydroclimatic evolution on the northwestern TP (NWTP) remain unclear. We reconstructed the lake level variations of a non-glacier-fed lake, Longjue Co, on the NWTP, using optical dating of paleo-shorelines. The optically stimulated luminescence signals of quartz grains were unsuitable for dating due to high contributions of the medium component, and thus the post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence signals (pIR50IR170, pIR50IR225) of K-feldspar single grains were used. Internal checks including dose recovery tests, residual dose tests, and anomalous fading tests showed that the pIR50IR170 signal was suitable for paleo-shoreline dating in Longjue Co. However, some of the samples were affected by the incomplete bleaching of pIRIR signals before deposition, and in this case the Minimum Age Model was used to constrain the ages. We also examined the dependence of the K-feldspar equivalent dose (De) on grain brightness and explored the possible mechanisms, and the brightest grains were then used for De calculations. The results show that Longjue Co reached its maximum Holocene level (+34 m) during the early Holocene (10.06 ± 1.39 ka), and then after ∼5 ka it commenced a shrinking trend, punctuated by two rapid lake level decreases. Reference to independent paleoclimate records suggests that the Holocene lake level variations of Longjue Co and the regional hydroclimate were mainly controlled by the Indian summer monsoon.

Lacustrine environment evolution in the Mesozoic North Yellow Sea Basin, eastern China: Insight from the transition of Jurassic grey mudstones to Cretaceous red successions

During the Cretaceous, terrestrial red beds appear on a global scale. Previous reports have suggested that these red beds were intricately linked to hot paleoclimates and unique paleogeographic configurations. This study focuses on petrological, mineralogical, and geochemical analyses conducted on samples that capture the transition from grey to red mudstone successions dating from the Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous within the North Yellow Sea Basin, with a focus to investigate the evolution of lacustrine environments and paleoclimates during their deposition. The findings revealed four episodes of hydrothermal activity occurring during the deposition of the Jurassic grey to Cretaceous red mudstone successions. Some mudstone samples have identified positive Eu anomalies, but the hydrothermal signal may not be as strong due to the open lake environment. Hf vs La/Th and ∑REE vs La/Yb graphs indicate that most grey mudstones originated primarily from upper crustal felsic sources, while certain red mudstones contain mantle material, and the provenance of both has changed significantly. Noteworthy indicators like Sr/Ba, B/Ga, U/Th, Ni/Co, V/Cr and V/(V + Ni) values denote that the sedimentary environments of both grey and red mudstones were oxidized, deviating from conventional viewpoints. However, this deviation may stem from hydrothermal contamination impacting trace elements such as Ni, Co, and Sr. Assessment using indicators like Rb/Sr and Sr/Cu reflects a transition from a warm and wet Jurassic climate to a hot Early Cretaceous climate. Variations in lake levels, prompted by climate fluctuations, led to increased oxygenation on the lake bottoms, resulting in the deposition of red mudstones. These findings suggest a close correlation between the red mudstones and the hot climate, driven by the tectonic evolution of Eastern China. The transformation from grey to red mudstones during the Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous periods signifies a response to paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental changes in East Asia.

Middle to Late Holocene lake level variations recorded by shoreline tufa of Longmu Co Lake, northwestern Tibet Plateau

Tufa deposits have significant potential for reconstructing past lake-level fluctuations. Here, we conducted U-Th dating of tufa deposits exposed along the shoreline of Longmu Co Lake in the northwestern Tibetan Plateau to reconstruct its water level history during the middle-late Holocene. Our data demonstrate that Longmu Co Lake reached its highest level (61 m above the present level) at around 7.4 ka in response to the strengthened Indian Summer Monsoon and increased glacial meltwater; its lake level subsequently decreased due to solar insolation-induced decline in summer monsoon and glacial meltwater. Moreover, we find that the lake level experienced an abrupt decline at ~2.2 ka with a maximum amplitude of 13 m, probably owing to the rapid cooling of the local climate. The δ18O and δ13C of Longmu Co tufa also show a covariance trend, which supports the regional climate change reflected by the lake level fluctuation of Longmu Co. Additionally, we observed an inverse correlation between initial δ234U content in tufa and lake level variation, suggesting that initial calcium δ234U can serve as a proxy for reconstructing environmental changes. Our study therefore implies that lake tufa as a reliable archive for accurately reconstructing lake level changes.

Late quaternary lake level variations of Mabu Co-Gala Co, southern Tibetan plateau, modulated by glacial meltwater, spillover processes and the Indian summer monsoon

Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) play a major role in the regional hydrological cycle and underpin vital ecosystem services. However, the long-term lake evolution and underlying mechanisms, especially on the exorheic southern TP, remain unclear. Here, we reconstructed the lake level variations of Mabu Co and Gala Co on the southern TP through detailed paleo-shoreline dating using post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR) signals of K-feldspar single grains, and explored the driving forcings based on a comparison of paleoclimate records and geomorphological analysis. The results show that a unified paleolake at Mabu Co and Gala Co at a level ∼20 m above the modern level (a.m.l.) of Mabu Co developed during the late MIS 3 (35.9 ± 1.9–29.1 ± 1.4 ka) in response to increased glacial meltwater and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. Under intensive glacier melting, the paleolake reached its maximum level (∼29 m a.m.l.) and area (190 km2, ∼22 times larger than the modern areas of Mabu Co and Gala Co) during the last deglacial (16.8 ± 1.0–13.6 ± 0.7 ka) and began to outflow, which triggered incision and lowering of the spill-point. The lake level showed an overall decreasing trend since the last deglacial largely influenced by the lowering of the spill-point. During the last deglacial-early Holocene (12.7 ± 0.6–9.8 ± 0.6 ka), a high-stand lower than that in the previous stage (∼24 m a.m.l.) was maintained by the strengthened ISM and glacial meltwater. In the mid-Holocene (8.7 ± 0.9–4.1 ± 0.3 ka), the paleolake experienced two rapid lake level drops in response to the weakening events of the ISM. The exposed shoreline terrace between the two lakes following the lake level drop after ∼6 ka provided an ideal living surface for the inhabitants at the Mabu Co site during 4.5–4.0 ka. We found that glacial meltwater and lake spillover processes, apart from the ISM, have exerted great impacts on the hydrological history of Mabu Co and Gala Co. The paleolakes have provided critical resources for humans at the Mabu Co site living in the alpine anoxic environment. Additionally, we suggest that lakes with low spill-points adjacent to exorheic basins on the southern TP should be given more attention regarding flooding hazard risks against increasing precipitation and glacial meltwater in the future.

Sedimentology, depositional processes, and sequence stratigraphy of deep lacustrine fine-grained sedimentary rocks in the lower Oligocene Xiaganchaigou Formation, Qaidam Basin, Northwestern China

Lacustrine deep-water fine-grained sedimentary rocks are characterized by high heterogeneities in lithology and lithofacies stacking patterns, controlled by sediment supply and lake level fluctuation. Despite their vital roles as source and reservoir rocks of unconventional oil and gas play, depositional processes and sedimentary sequence of lacustrine fine-grained sedimentary rocks are poorly understood compared to their extensively studied deep marine counterparts. Here, we studied lithofacies, transportation and depositional processes, depositional environments, and sedimentary cycles of deep-water fine-grained deposits of the Lower Oligocene Xiaganchaigou Formation from cored wells in the western Qaidam Basin. Nine lithofacies that stack repetitively in 6–18 m thick sedimentary cycles are identified based on petrographic observation, geochemical analysis, and scanning electron microscopy. The regressive systems tract of a sedimentary cycle is composed of detrital-rich massive fine sandstone deposited by debris flows and thin-bedded fine sandstone deposited by high-density turbidity currents. The transgressive systems tract is dominated by laminated carbonate-rich mudrock facies deposited by low-density turbidity currents. A complete sedimentary cycle is interpreted to represent a transgressive-regressive cycle controlled by fifth-order lake-level variation. Coarse-grained detrital-rich debrite and high-density turbidite were deposited in the proximal sublacustrine fan and channel during lake-level regression, with sediments mainly supplied by terrigenous siliciclastic input. Carbonate-rich low-density turbidites are deposited primarily in the distal sublacustrine fan during lake-level transgression. Thin-laminated carbonate-rich mudrock facies with high organic matter abundance and well-developed laminae-induced fractures are considered both source rocks and target reservoirs of the upper Xiaganchaigou Formation.

Improving mean water lake surface elevation estimates using dense lidar measurements from the GEDI satellite mission

Lakes are an essential component of the global water cycle and are considered as sentinels of climate change. An accurate estimate of lake's water levels is necessary for reliable continuous monitoring of their water balance. Due to their huge number worldwide, satellite altimetry has been identified as an efficient tool for measuring their temporal variations of water level. This technique can reach an accuracy of a few centimeters for water level estimates over large lakes. Due to the coarse across-track spatial resolution of the radar altimetry missions, their spatial sampling only covers a small part of the lakes surface. To obtain an accurate estimate of the lake water level, it is necessary to apply a correction to account for the small-scale orthometric height undulations occurring on the lake area and not present in the current global geoid models. In this study, the high-density lidar measurements from GEDI are used to estimate the mean lake surface. From the 1,366,211 GEDI data over 1239 tracks acquired over more than 6000 km2 of the surface of Lake Issy-Kul (Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia) between May 2019 and mid-November 2021, 654,592 shots over 843 tracks were selected after a multi-step quality-check and processed to generate a mean lake surface of Lake Issyk-Kul. Comparison between the GEDI-based mean lake surface and GNSS kinematic surveys corrected from the lake level variations exhibit an RMSE of 0.065 m. The principal objective of performing such mean lake surface is to further use it in the framework of the calibration/validation of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission.

Diverse response of shallow lake water levels to decadal weather patterns in a heterogeneous glacial Boreal Plains landscape

AbstractTo examine the relative controls of landscape and climate on spatial variability, we measured water level dynamics of shallow lakes over two decades that represent both the heterogeneity of surficial geology classifications, and thus the potential range in surface and groundwater connectivity, and the long‐term weather patterns of the Boreal Plain hydrogeoclimatic setting. Large ranges in shallow lakes water levels (between 0.25 and 2 m) were observed corresponding to extremes in precipitation relative to the long‐term mean precipitation over the study period. We found low concurrence in water level dynamics among four detailed study lakes that received the same meteorological weather signal, but were located in different surficial geology texture classifications that incorporated important landscape parameters associated with lake water balance and storage. Surficial geology classification alone did not, however, distinguish between different ranges in lake water level measured in a broader synoptic survey of 26 lakes across the region. Thus, simple surficial geology classifications cannot alone be applied to classify Boreal Plain lake water level dynamics and other controls, notably landscape position, must also be considered. We further show that inter‐annual variability in lake water levels was significantly greater than seasonal variability in this hydrogeoclimatic setting. This emphasizes the need for studies of sufficient length to capture weather extremes that include periods of wetting and drying, and demonstrates how observed magnitudes of water level variability, and lake function, can be an artefact of study length and initiation date. These findings provide a foundation to test and calibrate conceptual understanding of the wider controls of lake water levels to form holistic frameworks to mitigate ecological and societal impacts due to hydrological changes under climate and anthropogenic disturbance within and between hydrogeoclimatic settings.

Assessment of lake-level variations to decipher geological controlling factors and depositional architecture of Lake Fuxian, Yunnan Plateau: preliminary insights from geophysical data

Lake Fuxian is one of the deepest tectonic plateau freshwater lakes in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. However, questions such as how old the lake is, how deep the total sedimentary thickness sequences are, and what landscape of the lake basin settings and geological structures are unknown. Here, based on fifteen seismic reflection profiles, we applied seismic facies and seismic sequence stratigraphic analyses to interpret the lake sequences. The results of the seismic response reveal that the maximum thickness of the sedimentation is ca. 1238 m and lies toward the NNE region of the lake basin on the L10-2 survey line. Lake sediments can be categorized into five seismic sequences and six seismic horizons. The oldest clinoforms in the deepest sequence (Sq-5) show that the depositional center was shifted to ~ 19 km from the NNE region to the SSW modern location and was ~ 930 m lower than the current lake floor. Multiple and complex tectonic activities strongly impacted on the lake basin, and a series of normal faults created an overall crustal extensional regime, resulting in the formation of many horst and graben structures.

Mapping inundated bathymetry for estimating lake water storage changes from SRTM DEM: A global investigation

Lake water budgets are sensitive to climate change and human activities and have been undergoing rapid changes worldwide over the past few decades. Satellite altimeters greatly promote the large-scale monitoring of lake level and storage variations. However, limited spatiotemporal coverage of the existing individual altimeters prevents long-term and spatially seamless observations on global lakes. These limitations are partially surmounted by the gridded digital elevation model (DEM) data, which can facilitate spatially contiguous measurements of lake bathymetry exposed at the low-level period. The high-resolution SRTM DEM has been widely used for estimating lake level variations due to its early collection time and reliable data quality, while how many lakes worldwide and to what extent of the newly inundated areas can be monitored based on SRTM DEM remains unexplored. Here, we conduct a quasi-global investigation of SRTM DEM regarding its capability of mapping inundated-area bathymetry and estimating lake storage variations. After generating a global-scale lake inventory (122,444 lakes below 60°N, >1 km2) representing the maximum water inundation extents between 1984 and 2020, the feasibility of mapping lake inundated-area bathymetry was evaluated by comparing the maximum inundated area with the waterbody extent derived from SRTM DEM and analyzing the characteristics of interannual and seasonal variability of each lake. Results show that the maximum exposed lake bathymetries from the SRTM DEM data cover an area of 372,986 km2, accounting for 15.95% of the maximum water area of our investigated lakes. Climate-driven lake expansions or human-induced reservoir impoundments after 2000 (the SRTM mission period) are the main contributors to the higher availability of SRTM DEM-based bathymetry mapping on the Tibetan Plateau, India, eastern China, and Amazon Plains. As the newly launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is anticipated to monitor lake water budget variation at an unprecedented resolution, this study provides a base map for supplementing inundated bathymetry information. The joint use of SRTM and SWOT-based observations will extend the time and space extents of lake-level measurements, thereby enhancing our understanding of lake dynamics at a longer timescale.

Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes

Abstract. Climate change modifies the water and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the surface in mountainous regions such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which has shown substantial hydrological changes over the last decades, including rapid lake level variations. The ground across the QTP hosts either permafrost or is seasonally frozen, and, in this environment, the ground thermal regime influences liquid water availability, evaporation and runoff. Consequently, climate-induced changes in the ground thermal regime may contribute to variations in lake levels, but the validity of this hypothesis has yet to be established. This study focuses on the cryo-hydrology of the catchment of Lake Paiku (southern Tibet) for the 1980–2019 period. We process ERA5 data with downscaling and clustering tools (TopoSCALE, TopoSUB) to account for the spatial variability of the climate in our forcing data (Fiddes and Gruber, 2012, 2014). We use a distributed setup of the CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) to quantify thermo-hydrological changes in the ground during this period. Forcing data and simulation outputs are validated with data from a weather station, surface temperature loggers and observations of lake level variations. Our lake budget reconstruction shows that the main water input to the lake is direct precipitation (310 mm yr−1), followed by glacier runoff (280 mm yr−1) and land runoff (180 mm yr−1). However, altogether these components do not offset evaporation (860 mm yr−1). Our results show that both seasonal frozen ground and permafrost have warmed (0.17 ∘C per decade 2 m deep), increasing the availability of liquid water in the ground and the duration of seasonal thaw. Correlations with annual values suggest that both phenomena promote evaporation and runoff. Yet, ground warming drives a strong increase in subsurface runoff so that the runoff/(evaporation + runoff) ratio increases over time. This increase likely contributed to stabilizing the lake level decrease after 2010. Summer evaporation is an important energy sink, and we find active-layer deepening only where evaporation is limited. The presence of permafrost is found to promote evaporation at the expense of runoff, consistently with recent studies suggesting that a shallow active layer maintains higher water contents close to the surface. However, this relationship seems to be climate dependent, and we show that a colder and wetter climate produces the opposite effect. Although the present study was performed at the catchment scale, we suggest that this ambivalent influence of permafrost may help to understand the contrasting lake level variations observed between the south and north of the QTP, opening new perspectives for future investigations.

Influence of high-frequency lake level fluctuations on organic matter accumulation in the northern Qaidam Basin, NW China: Insights from spectral attribute analysis and geochemistry

Assemblages of multiple organic matter-rich sedimentary energy carriers are frequently found in Jurassic nonmarine basins of China. These basins are strongly influenced by high-frequency fluctuations in lake levels. A series of coal- and oil shale-bearing successions reflecting periodic lake level variations is also present in the Shimengou Formation, northern Qaidam Basin, NW China. These Middle Jurassic coal and oil shale seams provide an excellent basis for studying the effects of high-frequency lake level fluctuations on organic matter accumulation. Moreover, additional factors influencing the primary organic matter input (e.g., wildfires) and its preservation and later diagenetic transformation (e.g., processes during coalification) must be considered. In the present study, organic matter maturity, source potential, and paleoenvironmental conditions during source rock formation are investigated based on macro- and micropetrographic data, proximate analyses, bulk geochemical parameters, biomarker analyses, stable isotope geochemistry, and spectral attribute analysis to provide a sequence stratigraphic framework for the accumulation of organic-rich intervals. According to the established depositional model, the Shimengou Formation can be subdivided into four depositional sequences, including three organic matter-rich intervals. These include the thick mixed gas- and oil-prone Sq1 coal seam with a relatively high ash yield, which represents a highstand systems tract, the gas-prone Sq3 coal seam corresponding to a transgressive systems tract, and the Sq4 oil shale layers likely corresponding to a subsequent highstand systems tract, indicating a drowned mire. The results provide insights for the optimization of high-quality sedimentary mineral resource production in similar basins worldwide.

Correlation between <em>Phragmites australis</em> growth and seasonal lake level variations in Lake Maggiore (Italy/Switzerland): common reed management guidelines

The present study investigates the impact of water level regulation on the growth of common reed (Phragmites australis), a globally widespread helophytic plant. The investigation has been carried out in the Bolle di Magadino (municipalities of Locarno, Gambarogno, Gordola and Tenero; Ticino, Switzerland), a lacustrine-riparian nature reserve in the context of the Lake Maggiore (that stretches between Italy and Switzerland). This is an oligotrophic, artificially regulated lake. Our initial hypothesis was that variation in water table regulation is the most influential factor for explaining observed local reed dieback. To test this, culm height of P. australis was measured at each significant change in lake water level (water table height increase greater than 20 cm), or monthly in the case of a relatively constant lake level. The study took place between 2020 and 2022, monitoring 14 plots of 400 m2, placed at three different relative elevation classes with respect to the level of the lake (5 plots at low elevation, <193.475 m; 7 plots at intermediate elevation, 193.476-193.700 m; 2 plots at high elevation, >193.701 m). The results showed that P. australis growth is significantly influenced by the lake water level and thus the relative elevation of the stands, with lower lake levels leading to better growth, especially during the early phases of the growing season. On the other hand, prolonged flooding of shoots significantly impaired common reed growth. The study identifies two relevant relative elevation thresholds for winter mowing, a management practice that enhances reedbeds health. Mowing below 193.20 m elevation is considered risky, as no healthy reedbeds have been observed below this threshold. Mowing below an elevation of 193.50 m was defined as possibly risky, due to observed dieback in some areas as well as healthy reedbeds in other locations at the same or lower elevations. The research also discussed the potential impact of future changes in water level regulation, including the planned change in the spring regulation threshold (+1.50 m above the hydrometric zero in Sesto Calende). This is expected to result in a further rearrangement in lacustrine vegetation, with the growth optimum for P. australis becoming higher and an increase in clumping habit. In conclusion, this study provides valuable insights into the impact of water level regulation on the growth of P. australis in the Bolle di Magadino nature reserve. The research highlights the need for careful management of water level regulation to preserve the reedbed ecosystem and identifies relevant elevation thresholds for winter mowing to mitigate the risks of reed dieback. The findings can inform future management strategies for the Bolle di Magadino reserve and other similar ecosystems facing the challenges of artificial regulation of water levels.

From desiccation to wetlands and outflow: Rapid re-filling of Lake Victoria during the Latest Pleistocene 14–13 ka

Reconstructing hydrological variability is critical for understanding Lake Victoria’s ecosystem history, the evolution of its diverse endemic fish community, the dynamics of vegetation in the catchment, and the dispersal of aquatic and terrestrial fauna in the East African Rift system during Latest Pleistocene and Holocene times. Whereas consensus exists on widespread desiccation of Lake Victoria ∼18 – 17 ka, the re-filling history (16 – 13 ka) has remained highly controversial. Here, we present data from four new sediment cores along a depth transect. We use lithostratigraphic core correlation, sediment facies, XRF data, wetland vegetation analysis (Typha pollen), and 14C chronologies of unprecedented precision to document Latest Pleistocene lake-level variability. At our coring site in the central basin, local Typha wetlands existed >16.7 ka, alternating with periods of desiccation. Moisture increased slightly between ca. 16.7 – 14.5 ka and wetlands with permanent, shallow ponds established simultaneously in the center and the marginal, more elevated parts of the flat lake basin. After ca. 14.0 ka, lake levels increased; wetlands in the central basin were submerged and replaced by lacustrine environments and a >50 m deep lake established ca. 13.5 ka, likely with intermittent overflow most of the time. The lake reached modern or even above-modern levels around 10.8 ka. This lake-level history is consistent with regional terrestrial paleoenvironmental reconstructions, notably the expansion of Afromontane and rainforest. Our data suggest a complex picture of paleoclimatic conditions in Eastern Africa and teleconnections to the North-Atlantic and Indian Ocean domains.

Synthetic seismic-stratigraphic interpretation from a sedimentological forward model in a pre-salt field in the Santos Basin

Forward modelling of sedimentary systems is a method that simulates sedimentation processes over geological time to generate a set of facies distributed in a depositional space. The objective of using forward modelling in this work was to build a 3D facies model from which a synthetic seismic simulation was generated, and then to analyse the relation of seismic-stratigraphic interpretations with the knowledge of the a priori generated sedimentological model. This modelling methodology was applied in a pre-salt field in the Santos Basin, Brazilian offshore, focused on the Barra Velha Formation. The modelling parameters used were: (i) the initial surface of bathymetric depth; (ii) the lake-level variation; (iii) the subsidence map; and (iv) the deposition rates of the facies. Average-constant of acoustic impedance values were assigned to each facies and a synthetic seismic was obtained. With the facies and synthetic models available, it was possible to analyse: (i) the distribution of thicknesses and proportion of facies by region; (ii) the vertical stacking pattern and lateral facies variation; (iii) the Wheeler distance × time diagram; and (iv) the seismic reflector patterns through the seismic facies classification. Through these analyses it was possible to better understand the possibilities and limitations of seismic stratigraphy as an interpretation auxiliary tool in pre-salt carbonate environments.

A 1000-year record of paleoclimate and paleoenvironment change inferred from sedimentary organic matter in Lake Azuei, Haiti

We studied sediment organic matter (OM) to reconstruct the environment over the last millennium using a sediment core from Lake Azuei, Haiti, also known as “Etang Saumatre.” Chronology for the 84-cm-long core was established with 11 14C dates and 210Pb analysis. Total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in the sediment were low (0.58 ‐ 4.89%), as were total nitrogen (TN) values (0.06 ‐ 0.40%). Carbon isotopic ratio (δ13C) values were relatively negative and C/N ratios were low, suggesting that algae and terrestrial C3 plants were the primary sources of OM in the lake sediment. The inverse relationship between the nitrogen isotopic ratio (δ15N) and TOC is related to denitrification in the sediment. We identified five stratigraphic zones using a δ13C vs. C/N cross diagram: 1) Medieval Climate Anomaly 1 (MCA1) (1000–1050 CE), 2) Medieval Climate Anomaly 2 (MCA2) (1050–1100 CE), 3) Transition period between Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age (MCA-LIA) (1150–1400 CE) 4) Little Ice Age (LIA) (1400–1800 CE), 5) Current Warm Period (CWP) (1800–2000 CE). These stratigraphic zones correspond to three climate episodes. The first was applied MCA1 and LIA periods, when there was a decrease in TOC and TN as well as in plankton-derived OM. This was accompanied by an increase in δ15N, which suggests denitrification due to suboxic conditions, likely caused by an increase in lake water temperature and dry conditions. The second climate episode was the MCA-LIA transition period and was characterized by high variability of TOC, δ13C and δ15N. The organic matter deposited during this period appeared to be a mixture of material originating from both autochthonous phytoplankton and allochthonous C3 plants. There was climate instability during this period, with alternations between wet and dry conditions, and thus likely variations in lake level. The third climate episode, the MCA2 and CWP periods, was characterized by an increase in TOC and TN values, and decrease in δ13C and δ15N values. This was chiefly attributable to more organic material input which was derived from C3 terrestrial vegetation growing around the lake. A decrease in δ15N indicated a reduction in denitrification, further suggesting an increase in the input of organic matter. Sedimentation during these periods occurred when there was more transport related to wet conditions.

Coastal archaeological site visibility problems and underwater prospects in the Northern Lake Superior Basin

AbstractThe early to middle Holocene was marked by considerable variability in lake levels in the Lake Superior Basin due to a combination of meltwater runoff, isostatic adjustment, shifting glacial margins, and climate change. These processes likely had a large impact on the preservation and visibility of coastal archaeological sites dating from the Early Period (Paleoindian) to the Middle Period (Shield Archaic). Of particular interest is the brief interval after 9300 cal. B.P. when ancestral Lake Superior dropped to its lowest level (Houghton) and human populations may have made incursions deeper into the basin. Elsewhere in the Upper Great Lakes, this period is associated with offshore archaeological sites submerged by rising water levels later in the Holocene. New geological data from the Thunder Bay, ON, region yield exceptional insight into the paleohydrology of the Houghton phase and, hence, the underwater archaeological prospects of this low water phase in the northern Lake Superior Basin. These data indicate that the lake reached its lowest level by at least ~9100 cal. B.P. but was highly unstable, at least initially, due to a combination of climate and meltwater runoff. Early underwater sites may be confined to two short, hydrologically closed, lowstands between ~9100 and 8700 cal. B.P. and would have been impacted by at least one lake transgression. Such sites, however, may still hold better potential for organic preservation and the visibility of large cultural features compared to their terrestrial counterparts. Coastal sites occupied when the lake was hydrologically closed may be especially well‐preserved due to rapid inundation before the gradual, and generally erosional, Nipissing transgression occurred.

Holocene humid periods of the Levant – evidence from Dead Sea lake-levels

Water availability in the Levant is predicted to decline due to global warming in the upcoming decades and is expected to substantially impact the region. Determining the long-term natural rainfall variability in this region is essential for understanding the regional hydroclimatic response to external climate forcings and for contextualizing future hydroclimate changes. The Dead Sea (DS), located in the southern Levant, is a closed-basin lake whose size varies as a function of water availability. Reconstructing DS lake-level variations through time provides a quantitative measure of the natural hydroclimate variability and can inform on the local hydroclimate response to changes in global climate. Here, we constructed an updated lake-level history of the Holocene DS by: 1) studying lake high-stands derived from a series of new cores collected in the DS southern basin, 2) re-dating of the two major Holocene high-stand exposures, and 3) compiling all previously published ages of Holocene DS lake-level markers (n = 296 radiocarbon ages). The results show that the early (10–6.1 kyr cal BP) and late Holocene (3.6–0 kyr cal BP) in the DS were predominantly wet albeit punctuated by dry intervals, whereas the middle Holocene (6.1–3.6 kyr cal BP) was most likely relatively dry. This pattern of two Holocene humid intervals is also evident in distillation records derived from Levant speleothem caves (which represent the integrated magnitude of rainout from the vapor source to the caves), indicating that rainfall intensity and total water availability were correlated throughout the Holocene. These two humid intervals occurred during high and low summer insolation conditions, suggesting that they were modulated by different climatic mechanisms. The predicted future drying in the Levant is of similar magnitude to the natural hydroclimate variability and thus, it is crucial to assess whether the anthropogenic drying is in- or out-of phase with the natural climate variability.