Variation In Reproductive Success Research Articles

Patrilineal segmentary systems provide a peaceful explanation for the post-Neolithic Y-chromosome bottleneck

Studies have found a pronounced decline in male effective population sizes worldwide around 3000–5000 years ago. This bottleneck was not observed for female effective population sizes, which continued to increase over time. Until now, this remarkable genetic pattern was interpreted as the result of an ancient structuring of human populations into patrilineal groups (gathering closely related males) violently competing with each other. In this scenario, violence is responsible for the repeated extinctions of patrilineal groups, leading to a significant reduction in male effective population size. Here, we propose an alternative hypothesis by modelling a segmentary patrilineal system based on anthropological literature. We show that variance in reproductive success between patrilineal groups, combined with lineal fission (i.e., the splitting of a group into two new groups of patrilineally related individuals), can lead to a substantial reduction in the male effective population size without resorting to the violence hypothesis. Thus, a peaceful explanation involving ancient changes in social structures, linked to global changes in subsistence systems, may be sufficient to explain the reported decline in Y-chromosome diversity.

A sex-linked supergene with large effects on sperm traits has little impact on reproductive traits in female zebra finches.

Despite constituting an essential component of fitness, reproductive success can vary remarkably between individuals and the causes of such variation are not well understood across taxa. In the zebra finch-a model songbird, almost all the variation in sperm morphology and swimming speed is maintained by a large polymorphic inversion (commonly known as a supergene) on the Z chromosome. The relationship between this polymorphism and reproductive success is not fully understood, particularly for females. Here, we explore the effects of female haplotype, and the combination of male and female genotype, on several primary reproductive traits in a captive population of zebra finches. Despite the inversion polymorphism's known effects on sperm traits, we find no evidence that inversion haplotype influences egg production by females or survival of embryos through to hatching. However, our findings do reinforce existing evidence that the inversion polymorphism is maintained by a heterozygote advantage for male fitness. This work provides an important step in understanding the causes of variation in reproductive success in this model species.

Demographic patterns of walleye (Sander vitreus) reproductive success in a Wisconsin population.

Harvest in walleye Sander vitreus fisheries is size-selective and could influence phenotypic traits of spawners; however, contributions of individual spawners to recruitment are unknown. We used parentage analyses using single nucleotide polymorphisms to test whether parental traits were related to the probability of offspring survival in Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin. From 2017 to 2020, 1339 adults and 1138 juveniles were genotyped and 66% of the offspring were assigned to at least one parent. Logistic regression indicated the probability of reproductive success (survival of age-0 to first fall) was positively (but weakly) related to total length and growth rate in females, but not age. No traits analyzed were related to reproductive success for males. Our analysis identified the model with the predictors' growth rate and year for females and the models with year and age and year for males as the most likely models to explain variation in reproductive success. Our findings indicate that interannual variation (i.e., environmental conditions) likely plays a key role in determining the probability of reproductive success in this population and provide limited support that female age, length, and growth rate influence recruitment.

Variation in reproductive success in a fragmented Meadow Pipit population: a role for vegetation succession?

Most farmland birds experience strong declines across Europe. These declines are typically associated with agricultural intensification but research on alternative local causes remains scarce. We investigated variation in reproductive success as a potential driver for the observed population declines in a fragmented population of the Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis, a representative inhabitant of extensively managed mountain grasslands across Europe. Intense nest surveys in the entire Meadow Pipit metapopulation of the Northern Black Forest (SW Germany) between 2020 and 2022 provided information on reproductive success for 53 females distributed across nine habitat patches along an 18 km ridge of the Northern Black Forest. Hatching dates delayed by approx. 5.0 days per 100 m altitude and were almost 10 days later in a year with cold and rainy spring weather. Mean reproductive success per female and year (3.45 fledglings) was low compared to literature values (approx. 4.5) and may thus drive ongoing population declines. Mayfield nest survival estimates (approx. 51% across the nesting period) were comparably high, with most nest failures linked with predation or adverse weather. Low reproductive success further associated with comparably small clutch sizes and low fractions of second broods in habitat patches characterized by homogeneously dense swards. We suggest that restoration through extensive permanent cattle grazing coupled with succession control may be a key factor to increase population productivity.

Partitioning variance in reproductive success, within years and across lifetimes.

Variance in reproductive success (, with k = number of offspring) plays a large role in determining the rate of genetic drift and the scope within which selection acts. Various frameworks have been proposed to parse factors that contribute to , but none has focused on age-specific values of , which indicate the degree to which reproductive skew is overdispersed (compared to the random Poisson expectation) among individuals of the same age and sex. Instead, within-age effects are generally lumped with residual variance and treated as "noise." Here, an ANOVA sums-of-squares framework is used to partition variance in annual and lifetime reproductive success into between-group and within-group components. For annual reproduction, the between-age effect depends on age-specific fecundity (b x), but relatively few empirical data are available on the within-age effect, which depends on ϕ x. By defining groups by age-at-death rather than age, the same ANOVA framework can be used to partition variance in lifetime reproductive success (LRS) into between-group and within-group components. Analytical methods are used to develop null-model expectations for random contributions to within-group and between-group components. For analysis of LRS, random variation in longevity appears as part of the between-group variance, and effects (if any) of skip breeding and persistent individual differences contribute to the within-group variance. Simulations are used to show that the methods for variance partitioning are asymptotically unbiased. Practical application is illustrated with empirical data for annual reproduction in American black bears and lifetime reproduction in Dutch great tits. Results show that overdispersed within-age variance (1) dominates annual in both male and female black bears, (2) is the primary factor that reduces annual effective size to a fraction of the number of adults, and (3) represents most of the opportunity for selection. In contrast, about a quarter of the variance in LRSin great tits can be attributed to random variation in longevity, and most of the rest is due to modest differences in fecundity with age estimated for a single cohort of females. R code is provided that reads generic input files for annual and lifetime reproductive success and allows users to conduct variance partitioning with their own data.

Bet Hedging Is Not Sufficient to Explain Germination Patterns of a Winter Annual Plant.

AbstractBet hedging consists of life history strategies that buffer against environmental variability by trading off immediate and long-term fitness. Delayed germination in annual plants is a classic example of bet hedging and is often invoked to explain low germination fractions. We examined whether bet hedging explains low and variable germination fractions among 20 populations of the winter annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana that experience substantial variation in reproductive success among years. Leveraging 15 years of demographic monitoring and 3 years of field germination experiments, we assessed the fitness consequences of seed banks and compared optimal germination fractions from a density-independent bet-hedging model to observed germination fractions. We did not find consistent evidence of bet hedging or the expected trade-off between arithmetic and geometric mean fitness, although delayed germination increased long-term fitness in 7 of 20 populations. Optimal germination fractions were two to five times higher than observed germination fractions, and among-population variation in germination fractions was not correlated with risks across the life cycle. Our comprehensive test suggests that bet hedging is not sufficient to explain the observed germination patterns. Understanding variation in germination strategies will likely require integrating bet hedging with complementary forces shaping the evolution of delayed germination.

Asymmetric pre-growing season warming may jeopardize seed reproduction of the sand-stabilizing shrub Caragana microphylla

Our current understanding of the processes and mechanisms by which seasonal asymmetric warming affects seed reproduction in semiarid regions, which are essential in preserving the stability of both vegetation ecosystem structure and function, remains poorly understood. Here, we conducted a field warming experiment, including pre-growing season warming (W1), in-growing season warming (W2), and combined pre- and in-growing season warming (W3) treatments, to investigate the seed reproductive strategy of Caragana microphylla, an important sand-stabilizing shrub, from the perspective of reproductive phenology, reproductive effort, and reproductive success. Results show that the warming treatments advanced the initial stages of reproductive phenology, prolonged its duration, and decreased its synchrony (magnitude = W3 > W2 > W1). Additionally, flowering phenology was more sensitive to warming than podding phenology. The W1 treatment inclined seed reproduction towards the conservative strategy with low reproductive effort and success. The W3 treatment tended to increase seed reproductive effort and success. While the W2 treatment did not affect reproductive success, it did increase reproductive effort. Changes in reproductive phenology explained 20 % of the variation in reproductive effort and 38 % of the variation in reproductive success. However, these changes also directly hindered reproductive success (direct effect = −0.57) while indirectly promoting reproductive success (indirect effect = 0.27) by increasing reproductive efforts. Our results reveal that the seasonal asymmetry of warming altered the seed reproduction strategy of sand-stabilizing shrubs, with warmer winters and springs before the growing season decreasing seed fecundity.

Genetic Structure and Diversity in Wild and Cultivated Populations of the Mangrove Oyster Crassostrea gasar from Southern Brazil.

The mangrove oyster (Crassostrea gasar) is Brazil's second most cultured species and presents a high potential for aquaculture. However, artificial selection in a highly fecund species and significant variance in reproductive success can result in the loss of genetic diversity and increases the inbreedingrate, especially in cultivated populations. In this study, we investigated the genetic structure and diversity of C. gasar in wild and cultivated populations using 14 microsatellites. Spatial genetic comparisons revealed the existence of two main genetic groups of C. gasar, one comprising the population in cultivation and the other formed by wild populations along the southern and southeastern Braziliancoasts. Although no common genetic structure exists among wild populations, it is possible to observe a distribution gradient based on discriminant analysis of principal components consistent with their geographic distribution. However, it is insufficient to differentiate them genetically. Despite artificial reproduction, thegenetic diversity values of the cultivated population remained relatively high and did not show areduction. Therefore, monitoring the cultivated population and establishing reference values for genetic diversity will allow the adoption of strategies both for the viability of the cultivated population and the management of wild populations.

Sex and population differences underlie variation in reproductive success in a warming environment.

Current rising temperatures are threatening biodiversity. It is therefore crucial to understand how climate change impacts male and female fertility and whether evolutionary responses can help in coping with heat stress. We use experimental evolution to study male and female fertility during the real-time evolution of two historically differentiated populations of Drosophila subobscura under different thermal selection regimes for 23 generations. We aim to (a) tease apart sex-specific differences in fertility after exposure to warming conditions during development, (b) test whether thermal selection can enhance fertility under thermal stress, and (c) address the role of historically distinct genetic backgrounds. Contrary to expectations, heat stress during development had a higher negative impact on female fertility than on male fertility. We did not find clear evidence for enhanced fertility in males or females evolving under warming conditions. Population history had a clear impact on fertility response under thermal stress, particularly in males with those from lower latitude presenting better performance than their higher latitude counterparts. We show that the impact of thermal stress on fertility varies between traits, sexes, and genetic backgrounds. Incorporating these several levels of variation is crucial for a deeper understanding of how fertility evolves under climate change.

Microbiome structure of milt and ovarian fluid in farmed Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)

Limited knowledge exists about the residing microbiome in gamete-related samples in fish. A potential effect between the seminal microbiome composition and sperm quality traits has been previously suggested in humans and livestock. Using a metabarcoding approach, we aimed to gain insights into the structure of the residing prokaryotes and microbial eukaryotes in ovarian fluid (n = 10) and milt (n = 84) from farmed Arctic charr - a species with highly variable reproductive success in captivity. In addition, sperm quality traits were recorded on the sampled males to investigate potential associations with the residing seminal microbiome. Higher microbial diversity was found in the ovarian fluid compared to the milt habitat. Even though the residing microbiome showed distinct differences between the two habitats, substantial overlap was observed, with >70% of the milt core microbiome being found in the ovarian fluid habitat. Statistically significant associations were found between the Shannon diversity index and sperm motility-related traits. Additionally, a fungal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) potentially belonging to the Leotiomycetes class was associated with sperm concentration and motility. Overall, our study documents the microbiome structure of gamete-related samples from Arctic charr. Even though some associations were obtained between sperm quality parameters and either microbiome diversity or with a fungal OTU, follow-up studies on a larger scale with more tank replicates are needed to confirm the robustness and causality of these relationships.

Density‐dependent reproductive success among sympatric dipterocarps during a major mast fruiting event

AbstractAlthough masting in Southeast Asia is characterized by the interspecific synchronization of reproduction, little is known about the variation in regeneration strategies among sympatric tree species during major masting events. Herein, we examined the hypothesis that non‐abundant species achieve greater seed survival per seed production at the pre‐ and post‐dispersal stages by synchronizing reproduction with abundant species. During the masting event from May to September 2010, we installed seed traps in a primary forest plot of the Deramakot Forest Reserve, Borneo. To identify the possible causes of post‐dispersal seed mortality, we conducted a seed‐sowing experiment from September 2010 to July 2011 in a primary forest plot with high community‐level dipterocarp seed density and two surrounding secondary forests with low seed densities. An abundant species (Shorea multiflora) produced more seeds than other species and exhibited a lower survival rate during the pre‐dispersal stage. The ratio of aborted seeds was greater in species with greater seed production, while the ratio of seeds predated by insects was not, suggesting that resource limitations and/or greater inbreeding frequency may explain inefficient seed production. Interspecific variation was rarely observed for post‐dispersal seed survival rates. Our study highlights the density‐dependent variation in reproductive success between abundant and non‐abundant dipterocarp species at the pre‐dispersal stage. Non‐abundant species achieved greater reproductive success by synchronizing reproduction with the masting of abundant species, which might be an important mechanism for sustainability of rare species populations.

Survive the north: transplantation for conservation of mangrove forests requires consideration of influences of low temperature, mating system and their joint effects on effective size of the reforested populations

Mangrove forests, which occur in the intertidal regions of tropical and sub-tropical zones, have high ecological and economic values. They have rapidly reduced over the past decades due to various reasons. Reforestation is a common strategy for the conservation of mangroves, but information on the renewal capacity and viability of these artificial mangrove populations is still lacking. Here, we estimated the effective population size (NE) of an artificial population of Kandelia obovata (Rhizophoraceae) and explored the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on changes in NE to evaluate population viability and develop appropriate management strategies for mangrove forests. This population consisted of three ecologically and genetically differentiated groups that had experienced a major low-temperature event during the winter of 2015–2016 and varied in cold resistance. We first detected population bottlenecks and estimated contemporary values of NE for different groups using microsatellite data. Next, we performed paternity analyses for seedlings and propagules to explore variations in the reproductive success of individuals within the three groups before and after the low-temperature event. Lastly, we simulated four scenarios to characterize the effects of low temperature, mating system, and variance in reproductive success on changes in NE in a hypothetical metapopulation based on empirical estimates. Our results show that groups with moderate or poor cold resistance experienced local bottlenecks, and shifts in effective breeders occurred following the low-temperature event, which indicates that low temperature has an effect on not only population size but also reproductive success. Furthermore, our simulations revealed that changes in NE are jointly affected by reproductive success, mating system, and environmental conditions. These findings enhance our understanding of the multiple factors that affect NE, and provide key information that will aid the reforestation and management of mangrove forests, especially when they are introduced to high-latitude areas.

Shedding light on variation in reproductive success through studies of population genetic structure in a Southeast Pacific Coast mussel.

Phylogeography often focuses on the spatial dimension of genetic diversity, rarely including the temporal dynamics occurring interannually among local populations, which can provide insight into past variations in reproductive success. Currently, there is an intense aquaculture industry of Mytilus spp. on the Southeast Pacific Coast which depends entirely on the spat released by natural populations forming a relevant and sensitive social-ecological system. Temporal and spatial spat variability from natural mussel beds could be related to interannual reproductive dynamics with variable reproductive success and recruitment, which leave genetic signatures. Temporal and spatial genetic structure was evaluated in six natural beds in the Southeast Pacific (from 39°25'S to 43°07'S) on the most abundant and widespread Mytilus lineage detected, Mytilus cf. chilensis, in 4 consecutive years. Analyses included data from >180 individuals per year, with a total of 751 (mitochondrial COI) and 747 (nuclear H1) individuals, respectively. Overall, both markers showed high haplotype diversity and low spatial and temporal genetic differentiation. Likely, the high dispersal capacity of Mytilus cf. chilensis maintains population homogeneity and prevents diversity erosion. The slight differences in genetic variance of COI were better explained by differences among sites (space), and conversely, the H1 genetic variance was better explained by interannual (temporal) comparisons, which could explain temporal variability in spat availability. This study highlights the important insights achieved with the evaluation of both temporal and spatial population genetic structures in marine species with high reproductive output, which can condition the success and sustainability of the relevant social-ecological system.

Comparing estimates of census and effective population size in an endangered amphibian

AbstractThe field of conservation has seen a shift in focus from monitoring trends in census population size to trends in ‘effective’ population size. Numerous genetic methods exist for estimating effective population size, resulting in uncertainty among conservation practitioners as to which methods are most appropriate when conducting population assessments or evaluating recovery efforts. Demographic approaches offer a promising avenue to provide a link between census and effective population size using life‐history information, but rarely do studies have all three sources of data (genetic, demographic, life history) necessary to perform an explicit evaluation of their performance. Using data from a long‐term study of reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi) in western Florida, USA, we assessed the magnitude of temporal variation in census population sizes and the effective number of breeders of two breeding populations to (1) document changes in the number of breeding adults over the 9‐year study duration, (2) determine whether and provide similar information about population size and trends and (3) compare alternative demographic and genetic approaches for estimating . We found that genetic estimates of , particularly if averaged across multiple estimation methods, closely tracked spatiotemporal variation in . Demographic estimates of also closely tracked but were sensitive to the assumed variance in reproductive success. In the absence of genetic information, detailed knowledge of mating systems and the environmental factors that skew reproductive contributions appear necessary for demographic to reliably inform management decisions. In these populations, appears too small (<40 individuals) to confer long‐term genetic resilience, highlighting the importance of restoring landscape connectivity and indicating that caution must be taken when sourcing animals for reintroduction efforts. More generally, our study reveals insights into the utility of alternative estimation methods in guiding recovery efforts of threatened and endangered species.

Disentangling the causes of temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection

In principle, temporal fluctuations in the potential for sexual selection can be estimated as changes in intrasexual variance in reproductive success (i.e. the opportunity for selection). However, we know little about how opportunity measures vary over time, and the extent to which such dynamics are affected by stochasticity. We use published mating data from multiple species to investigate temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection. First, we show that the opportunity for precopulatory sexual selection typically declines over successive days in both sexes and shorter sampling periods lead to substantial overestimates. Second, by utilising randomised null models, we also find that these dynamics are largely explained by an accumulation of random matings, but that intrasexual competition may slow temporal declines. Third, using data from a red junglefowl (Gallus gallus) population, we show that declines in precopulatory measures over a breeding period were mirrored by declines in the opportunity for both postcopulatory and total sexual selection. Collectively, we show that variance-based metrics of selection change rapidly, are highly sensitive to sampling durations, and likely lead to substantial misinterpretation if used as indicators of sexual selection. However, simulations can begin to disentangle stochastic variation from biological mechanisms.

Effective population size in a partially clonal plant is not predicted by the number of genetic individuals.

Estimating effective population size (N e) is important for theoretical and practical applications in evolutionary biology and conservation. Nevertheless, estimates of N e in organisms with complex life-history traits remain scarce because of the challenges associated with estimation methods. Partially clonal plants capable of both vegetative (clonal) growth and sexual reproduction are a common group of organisms for which the discrepancy between the apparent number of individuals (ramets) and the number of genetic individuals (genets) can be striking, and it is unclear how this discrepancy relates to N e. In this study, we analysed two populations of the orchid Cypripedium calceolus to understand how the rate of clonal versus sexual reproduction affected N e. We genotyped >1000 ramets at microsatellite and SNP loci, and estimated contemporary N e with the linkage disequilibrium method, starting from the theoretical expectation that variance in reproductive success among individuals caused by clonal reproduction and by constraints on sexual reproduction would lower N e. We considered factors potentially affecting our estimates, including different marker types and sampling strategies, and the influence of pseudoreplication in genomic data sets on N e confidence intervals. The magnitude of N e/N ramets and N e/N genets ratios we provide may be used as reference points for other species with similar life-history traits. Our findings demonstrate that N e in partially clonal plants cannot be predicted based on the number of genets generated by sexual reproduction, because demographic changes over time can strongly influence N e. This is especially relevant in species of conservation concern in which population declines may not be detected by only ascertaining the number of genets.

The influence of conditions in Lake Superior and the Bois Brule River, Wisconsin on returns of migratory rainbow trout

Rainbow trout were introduced to Lake Superior in the late 1800’s and exhibit a potamodromous life history and exhibit high variability in reproductive success. We examined reproductive variability in the Bois Brule River, WI (Lake Superior), through analyses of returns of wild first spawning (hereafter “maiden” returning) adults. We used classification and regression tree analyses to identify in-stream and in-lake (western Lake Superior) sources of variability and to identify the environment (stream or lake) that was most influential to the returns to each location. Among in-stream influences, high discharge rates in the spring period (March – May) during a pre-smolt’s first stream year were the strongest source of variability and were negatively correlated with returns. High discharge during the fall period from September to November in the pre-smolt first stream year was also negatively correlated with numbers of maiden returning steelhead from that year class. When variables associated with Lake Superior were considered, maiden returns were positively correlated with higher lake surface temperatures in Lake Superior. Returns were negatively correlated with the abundance of adult rainbow smelt and bloater suggesting a possible competitive interaction among those species. Finally, we also observed a conditional (minor) positive effect of age-0 smelt abundance indicating the importance of this prey for juveniles in colder years in western Lake Superior. Taken together, our findings indicate that both streamand lake conditionsin their first lake year are important sources of variability and point to spates in the spring and fall as initialcontrolling variables.

The efficacy of translocation as a tool to augment populations of Gambel's quail

AbstractTranslocation is a management strategy that can be used to augment and reestablish populations or increase a species' range by establishing new populations. Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) are the only native upland game birds in many desert areas of the American Southwest. Drought may be a driver in Gambel's quail population declines; however, quail in urban environments may remain abundant because these areas may contain more reliable sources of food, water, and cover. We hypothesized that translocation of urban quail following a wet winter, when resources are plentiful in their native habitat, might allow us to increase the rate at which extant populations are able to recover following drought by capitalizing on the high reproductive capacity of quail. To assess translocation as a management tool for augmentation of populations of Gambel's quail, we translocated 370 quail from 2019 to 2021 to augment 2 sites in the Altar Valley in Arizona, USA: King's Anvil Ranch (KA) and Santa Margarita Ranch (SM). We radiotracked 155 female quail on 2 study areas (KA: n = 77, SM: n = 78) to estimate 200‐day post‐release survival. Release site had the most impact on demographic rates. Quail in KA had higher survival (63.4–70.9%) than quail in SM (19.3–33.1%); however, quail in SM had higher nesting effort and success (nest effort = 63%, nest success = 50%) than quail in KA (nest effort = 33%, nest success: 0%) in the first year. Although this study showed that urban quail can survive and reproduce following translocation, neither site showed both high survival and high reproductive success. Furthermore, although spring call counts indicated augmentation may have had some short‐term benefits due to increased reproductive activity, we are not able to conclude that it increased quail abundance. Given the low annual adult survival rates of Gambel's quail, high spring‐summer survival alone will not be enough to boost wild populations in a measurable way the following year. Therefore, the ability of translocation to augment extant populations may be limited by low and variable reproductive success.

Annual variation in breeding success in boreal forest grouse: Four decades of monitoring reveals bottom-up drivers to be more important than predation.

Knowledge of the temporal variation in reproductive success and its key driving factors is crucial in predicting animal population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of a range of explanatory factors operating simultaneously on the same population over a long period. Based on 41 years of monitoring (1979–2019), we tested prevailing hypotheses about drivers of annual variation in breeding success in two sympatric species of boreal forest grouse—the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the black grouse (T. tetrix)—in a 45 km2 boreal forest landscape. From counts in early August, we measured breeding success (chicks/hen) along with potential determining factors. We formulated five main hypotheses on causes of variation (hen condition, chick weather, chick food, predation, demographic characteristics) and derived 13 associated explanatory variables for analysis. We first tested the five hypotheses separately and then used model selection (AICc) to rank the best predictive models irrespective of hypotheses. Lastly, we used path analysis to illuminate potential causal relationships. Barring demographic characteristics, all hypotheses were supported, most strongly for chick food and predation. Among predictor variables, chick food (insect larvae and bilberry fruit crops), vole and fox abundances, the winter‐NAO index, and temperature after hatching, had the strongest effect sizes in both species. Precipitation after hatching had no detectable effect. Model selection indicated bottom‐up factors to be more important than predation, but confounding complicated interpretation. Path analysis suggested that the high explanatory power of bilberry fruiting was due not only to its direct positive effect on chick food quality but also to an indirect positive effect on vole abundance, which buffers predation. The two components of breeding success—proportion of hens with broods and number of chicks per brood—were uncorrelated, the former having the strongest effect. The two components had different ecological correlates that often varied asynchronously, resulting in overall breeding success fluctuating around low to moderate levels. Our study highlights the complexity of key explanatory drivers and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of breeding success. Although chick food appeared to equal or surpass predation in explaining the annual variation in breeding success, predation may still be the overall limiting factor. Comparative and experimental studies of confounded variables (bilberry fruiting, voles, and larvae) are needed to disentangle causes of variation in breeding success of boreal forest grouse.

Demographic resilience of brook trout populations subjected to experimental size-selective harvesting.

Sustainable management of exploited populations benefits from integrating demographic and genetic considerations into assessments, as both play a role in determining harvest yields and population persistence. This is especially important in populations subject to size-selective harvest, because size selective harvesting has the potential to result in significant demographic, life-history, and genetic changes. We investigated harvest-induced changes in the effective number of breeders ( ) for introduced brook trout populations (Salvelinus fontinalis) in alpine lakes from western Canada. Three populations were subject to 3 years of size-selective harvesting, while three control populations experienced no harvest. The decreased consistently across all harvested populations (on average 60.8%) but fluctuated in control populations. There were no consistent changes in between control or harvest populations, but one harvest population experienced a decrease in of 63.2%. The / ratio increased consistently across harvest lakes; however we found no evidence of genetic compensation (where variance in reproductive success decreases at lower abundance) based on changes in family evenness ( ) and the number of full-sibling families ( ). We found no relationship between and or between / and . We posit that change in was buffered by constraints on breeding habitat prior to harvest, such that the same number of breeding sites were occupied before and after harvest. These results suggest that effective size in harvested populations may be resilient to considerable changes in Nc in the short-term, but it is still important to monitor exploited populations to assess the risk of inbreeding and ensure their long-term survival.