Variation In Habitat Suitability Research Articles

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of the Mangshan Pit Viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Modeling

This study explores the critical issue of understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the habitat suitability of the highly endangered forest-dwelling Mangshan pit viper (Protobothrops mangshanensis) in China. Through the application of the MaxEnt model, high-resolution bioclimatic datasets, and species occurrence data, the research aims to elucidate the spatial and temporal dynamics of P. mangshanensis distribution from the present to the years 2050 and 2070. Through the integration of three climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and exploring different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585), the study seeks to provide comprehensive insights into the potential variations in habitat suitability under diverse future climate conditions. The methodology employed involves the construction of the MaxEnt model utilizing the BioClim dataset and 83 species occurrence points. The SSP scenarios mentioned above represent future climate change scenarios, and the accuracy of the model is evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Key findings reveal that the MaxEnt model exhibits high accuracy (AUC = 0.998), pinpointing the current suitable habitat for P. mangshanensis to be confined to the Mangshan area within the Nanling Mountains, covering an approximate area of 1023.12 km2. However, projections based on future climate scenarios suggest notable shifts in habitat suitability dynamics. While potential suitable habitats may emerge in the northwest of the current range, the existing suitable habitats are anticipated to undergo significant reduction or even complete disappearance. Notably, precipitation during the driest month emerges as a critical determinant influencing the distribution of the species. In conclusion, the study underscores the exacerbating impact of climate change on habitat deterioration and survival risks for P. mangshanensis, emphasizing the urgent need for conservation measures to safeguard the remaining suitable habitats for this endangered species. The implications of these findings are far-reaching, with the anticipated contraction of the snake’s range potentially leading to its disappearance and increased habitat fragmentation. By shedding light on the potential distributional changes of P. mangshanensis in Mangshan, the research provides valuable insights for informing targeted conservation strategies and policy interventions aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on endangered species.

High-resolution species distribution modelling reveals spatio-temporal variability of habitat suitability in a declining grassland bird

Abstract Context Species distribution models (SDMs) may provide accurate predictions of species occurrence across space and time, being critical for effective conservation planning. Objectives Focusing on the little bustard (Tetrax tetrax), an endangered grassland bird, we aimed to: (i) characterise the drivers of the species distribution along its key phenological phases (winter, breeding, and post-breeding); and (ii) quantify spatio-temporal variation in habitat suitability across phenological phases and over the years 2005–2021. Methods Combining remotely sensed metrics at high temporal resolution (MODIS) with long-term (> 12 years) GPS telemetry data collected for 91 individuals at one of the species’ main strongholds within the Iberian Peninsula, we built SDMs (250 m resolution) for the species key phenological phases. Results The use of both dynamic and static predictors unveiled previously unknown ecological responses by little bustards, revealing a marked change in the spatial distribution of suitable habitat among phenological phases. Long-term habitat suitability trends showed considerable fluctuations, mainly in the breeding and post-breeding phases. Overall, SDM projections into the past revealed that while the species’ winter and post-breeding habitats apparently increased since 2005, suitable habitat during the species’ most critical phenological phase, breeding, apparently reduced in area over time. Conclusions Our findings show that matching remotely sensed data with GPS tracking data results in accurate habitat suitability predictions throughout the yearly cycle. Additionally, our findings stress the importance of quantifying habitat loss and its potential impact on little bustard decline over nearly 20 years. Spatio-temporal variations in habitat suitability are also identified in this work, which can help prioritize conservation areas, particularly the breeding areas that have remained stable over time, as this is a key requirement for little bustard lek breeding system.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Effects of physical lagoon characteristics on Chilean Flamingo (Phoenicopterus chilensis) habitat selection: Implications for management in a key South American wetland

Understanding species habitat selection is crucial for informed conservation and management decisions, implementing measures to protect and preserve their preferred environments and developing targeted strategies that support the specific needs of the target species. In this study, we focused on the Chilean Flamingo (Phoenicopterus chilensis), an iconic species in the Lagoa do Peixe National Park (LP) in southern Brazil. Our objective was to investigate the factors that influence the foraging habitat selection of flamingos and assess the impact of artificial lagoon openings on their occupancy. We collected monthly physical and biological data of foraging areas from October 2021 to September 2022. Using generalized linear mixed models, we construct habitat selection models that linked Chilean Flamingo presence to the environmental variables collected. The results revealed that water depth, salinity, distance from the shore, and the abundance of polychaetas and vegetal fragments significantly determine the flamingos' foraging habitat selection in the lagoon. These factors are directly affected by artificial openings and the subsequent summer drought. Furthermore, we observed variations in habitat suitability during the flooded and dry seasons, leading to significant changes in the relationship between environmental variables and flamingo presence. These findings highlight the potential influence of management decisions on the presence of the species in the region. It emphasizes the urgent need for multidisciplinary decision-making groups and the establishment of short, medium, and long-term conservation goals to protect Lagoa do Peixe, safeguard the Chilean Flamingos, and assure the subsistence of local communities.

Variation in establishment success for American mistletoe [Phoradendron leucarpum (Raf.) Reveal & M.C. Johnst. (Viscaceae)] appears most likely to predict its distribution in Virginia and North Carolina, United States

Dispersal limitation and variation in habitat suitability may determine an association of American mistletoe [ Phoradendron leucarpum (Raf.) Reveal & M.C. Johnst. (Viscaceae)] with forested wetlands in Virginia and North Carolina, United States. Here, we first tested the alternative hypothesis that variation in host availability drives this habitat relationship. We used a generalized linear model to show a positive effect of forested wetland habitat on American mistletoe occurrence after accounting for both variation in host availability and differences among regions in host use. We then used seed sowing experiments to quantify how light availability and flood regime determine the viability of American mistletoe, allowing us to evaluate the potential for establishment limitation to determine this habitat relationship. Light availability predicted establishment rates but % canopy openness did not predict seed germination rates. Thus, variation in the ability for American mistletoe to establish across forested habitat types with different local light availabilities is a potentially important mechanism in determining its distribution.

Every branch in its niche: intraspecific variation in habitat suitability of a widely distributed small mammal, the harvest mouse Micromys minutus

Climate and land use changes re-shape the distribution of species around the world, so understanding biogeographical patterns is key to protect and manage wildlife, particularly in the case of threatened or declining species. Species with wide ranges are usually considered as common, yet the occurrence of intraspecific variability and adaptation to local conditions may pose serious challenges to their conservation. In this paper, we selected the harvest mouse Micromys minutus as a model species to assess the role of intraspecific genetic variability in shaping the environmental preferences and distribution of a widely distributed mammal across Europe. By applying an integrative approach combining species distribution modelling and phylogenetic reconstruction, we assessed the clade-specific habitat suitability of all mitochondrial clades of the species occurring in Europe, unveiling distinct bioclimatic niches. Most of Central Europe results as suitable to M. minutus, whereas different clades showed distinct distributions of suitable areas across Europe, with limited overlap. We then combined mitochondrial analyses with clade-specific suitability maps to determine the geographic delimitations of Italian and central European clades. We showed that individuals from the northernmost Italian regions actually belong to the central European clade, consistent with the biogeographical patterns of other small mammals, and indicating potential past dispersal between the Italian Peninsula and Central Europe, or human-assisted translocations. Our results highlight the importance of intraspecific variability in shaping biogeographical patterns of widely distributed species, also representing a reproducible exercise to understand their environmental preferences and eventually fostering their conservation.

Citizen science aids the quantification of the distribution and prediction of present and future temporal variation in habitat suitability at species’ range edges

Citizen science programs are effective methods to collect large volumes of data to assist researchers in monitoring ecological environments. As species shift their distributions globally due to climate change, the use of citizen science data to detect these shifts is increasing. Using targeted citizen science programs to collect data on these species could provide information on range edges to inform species distribution modelling. Currently, species distribution models (SDMs) often rely on large data repositories that may lack observations, and hence ability, to detect changes at the range edge. Here, we developed a SDM to compare traditional data repository observations with targeted citizen science data at the southern distribution limit of two recreationally important marine fish in Tasmania, Australia to investigate the potential change in spatial predictions at their range edge. The SDM using the targeted citizen science data in addition to traditional observation data improved the representation of species by 2.3 and 52.7% and increased the southern distribution of the species by 277 and 438 km, for snapper and King George whiting, respectively. Future (centred around 2050 under IPCC RCP 8.5) habitat suitability was predicted to increase more over the winter season, with implications for species overwintering and persistence of populations. The use of citizen science data allowed for the modelling of historical and future change for two range-extending species, an outcome possible due to the collaboration of two citizen science programs that collected observational data on the target species. Species range shifts will require ongoing monitoring and we have demonstrated that complimentary citizen science initiatives are effective in capturing occurrences of species at their range edge. Increasing collaboration between programs may further increase data collection efforts and provide the knowledge to create a hub for these data to be used more efficiently in the future.

Drivers of polar bear behavior and the possible effects of prey availability on foraging strategy

BackgroundChange in behavior is one of the earliest responses to variation in habitat suitability. It is therefore important to understand the conditions that promote different behaviors, particularly in areas undergoing environmental change. Animal movement is tightly linked to behavior and remote tracking can be used to study ethology when direct observation is not possible.MethodsWe used movement data from 14 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Hudson Bay, Canada, during the foraging season (January–June), when bears inhabit the sea ice. We developed an error-tolerant method to correct for sea ice drift in tracking data. Next, we used hidden Markov models with movement and orientation relative to wind to study three behaviors (stationary, area-restricted search, and olfactory search) and examine effects of 11 covariates on behavior.ResultsPolar bears spent approximately 47% of their time in the stationary drift state, 29% in olfactory search, and 24% in area-restricted search. High energy behaviors occurred later in the day (around 20:00) compared to other populations. Second, olfactory search increased as the season progressed, which may reflect a shift in foraging strategy from still-hunting to active search linked to a shift in seal availability (i.e., increase in haul-outs from winter to the spring pupping and molting seasons). Last, we found spatial patterns of distribution linked to season, ice concentration, and bear age that may be tied to habitat quality and competitive exclusion.ConclusionsOur observations were generally consistent with predictions of the marginal value theorem, and differences between our findings and other populations could be explained by regional or temporal variation in resource availability. Our novel movement analyses and finding can help identify periods, regions, and conditions of critical habitat.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Quercus suber in the conditions of North Africa

Climate change, which is expected to continue in the future, is increasingly becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity and human society. Understanding its impacts on forest ecosystems is essential for undertaking long-term management and conservation strategies. This study was focused on modeling the potential distribution of Quercus suber in the Maamora Forest, the world’s largest lowland cork oak forest, under actual and future climate conditions and identifying the environmental factors associated with this distribution. Maximum Entropy approach was used to train a Species Distribution Model and future predictions were based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCPs). The results showed that the trained model was highly reliable and reflected the actual and future distributions of Maamora’s cork oak. It showed that the precipitation of the coldest and wettest quarter and the annual temperature range are the environmental factors that provide the most useful information for Q. suber distribution in the study area. The computed results of cork oak’s habitat suitability showed that predicted suitable areas are site-specific and seem to be highly dependent on climate change. The predicted changes are significant and expected to vary (decline of habitat suitability) in the future under the different emissions pathways. It indicates that climate change may reduce the suitable area for Q. suber under all the climate scenarios and the severity of projected impacts is closely linked to the magnitude of the climate change. The percent variation in habitat suitability indicates negative values for all the scenarios, ranging –23% to –100%. These regressions are projected to be more important under pessimist scenario RCP8.5. Given these results, we recommend including the future climate scenarios in the existing management strategies and highlight the usefulness of the produced predictive suitability maps under actual and future climate for the protection of this sensitive forest and its key species – cork oak, as well as for other forest species.

Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population

Spatial variations in tuna population and abundance are strongly linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). However, the mechanisms underlying the association of climate indices with yellowfin tuna (YFT) abundance and habitat preference remain unclear. We analysed long-term longline fishery data for YFT and oceanic climate variability index data for 1971–2018. The standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Indo-Pacific Ocean YFT was higher during negative AMO and positive PDO phases. In tropical Pacific Ocean, the trend of YFT habitat preference exhibited seesaw patterns because of the distinct environmental factors influenced by the PDO phase. The PDO changed the environmental parameters throughout the tropical Indian Ocean such that the habitat preference of YFT remained consistent throughout. However, the variations in habitat suitability did not correspond to the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT throughout the Pacific Ocean during AMO events. Moreover, the changes in habitat suitability had a positive periodicity of 8–16 years with AMO in the Indian Ocean, but revealed opposite trends with the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT. Our results provide sufficient information to distinguish the variations between PDO phase changing and YFT standardized CPUE/ habitat preference. Furthermore, the AMO phase shift period 60–100 years longer than that of the PDO (20–30 years), and models employing time series of fishery and environmental data must be extended the time period of our study to make the AMO match the fishery data more complete.

Ideal free dispersal in integrodifference models.

In this paper, we use an integrodifference equation model and pairwise invasion analysis to find what dispersal strategies are evolutionarily stable strategies (also known as evolutionarily steady or ESS) when there is spatial heterogeneity and possibly seasonal variation in habitat suitability. In that case there are both advantages and disadvantages of dispersing. We begin with the case where all spatial locations can support a viable population, and then consider the case where there are non-viable regions in the habitat. If the viable regions vary seasonally, and the viable regions in summer and winter do not overlap, dispersal may really be necessary for sustaining a population. Our findings generally align with previous findings in the literature that were based on other modeling frameworks, namely that dispersal strategies associated with ideal free distributions are evolutionarily stable. In the case where only part of the habitat can sustain a population, we show that a partial occupation ideal free distribution that occupies only the viable region is associated with a dispersal strategy that is evolutionarily stable. As in some previous works, the proofs of these results make use of properties of line sum symmetric functions, which are analogous to those of line sum symmetric matrices but applied to integral operators.

Habitat suitability map of Ixodes ricinus tick in France using multi-criteria analysis.

The tick Ixodes ricinus is widely distributed across Europe and is responsible for the transmission of several pathogens to humans and animals. In this study, we used a knowledge-based method to map variations in habitat suitability for I. ricinus ticks throughout continental France and Corsica. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) integrated four major biotic and abiotic factors known to influence tick populations: climate, land cover, altitude and the density of wild ungulates. For each factor, habitat suitability index (HSI) values were attributed to different locations based on knowledge regarding its impact on tick populations. For the MCDA, two methods of factor combination were tested, additive and multiplicative, both which were evaluated at the spatial scales of departments and local municipalities. The resulting habitat suitability maps (resolution=100x100 m) revealed that conditions are suitable for I. ricinus over most of France and Corsica. Particularly suitable habitats were located in central, north-eastern and south-western France, while less-suitable habitats were found in the Mediterranean and mountainous regions. To validate the approach, the HSI scores were compared to field data of I. ricinus nymph abundance. Regardless of scale, the correlation between abundance indicator and HSI score was stronger for the additive than for the multiplicative approach. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of MCDA for estimating habitat suitability maps for I. ricinus abundance, which could be especially useful in highlighting areas of the tick's distribution where preventive measures should be prioritised.

Metapopulation dynamics of multiple species in a heterogeneous landscape

AbstractCharacterizing the diversity of demographic strategies among species can inform research in topics such as trait syndromes, community stability, coexistence, and ecological succession. However, this diversity can depend on the spatial scale considered: at the landscape scale, species often form metapopulations, that is sets of local, sometimes short‐lived, populations, inhabiting discrete habitat patches. Metapopulation dynamics are most frequently analyzed in individual species or pairs of interacting species because of the large amount of data required for multiple species, and because species vary in their perceptions of what constitutes a favorable or unfavorable habitat. Here we evaluate, using a case study, whether a metapopulation model can be used to generate accurate estimates of demographic parameters and to describe the diversity of dynamics, responses to environment, and prospects of long‐term persistence in a guild of species inhabiting a common fragmented landscape. We applied this approach to a guild of 22 mollusk species that inhabit freshwater habitats on two islands of Guadeloupe, to compare metapopulation dynamics among species. We analyzed a 15‐year time series of occupancy records for 278 sites using a multistate occupancy model that estimated colonization and extinction rates as a function of site‐specific and year‐specific environmental covariates, then used model results to simulate future island metapopulation dynamics. Despite the diverse array of metapopulation trajectories—a mix of species with either stable, increasing, declining, or fluctuating metapopulations—and the inherent challenges associated with such data (e.g., imperfect detection, spatial and temporal heterogeneity), our model accurately captured among‐patch variation in suitability for many mollusk taxa. The dynamics of rare species or species with habitat preferences not fully captured by the retained set of covariates were less well described. For several species, we detected a negative correlation between extinction and colonization. This variation in habitat suitability created species‐specific extinction‐resistant pockets in the landscape. Our comparative analysis also revealed that species had distinct strategies for metapopulation dynamics, such as “fast‐turnover” species with both a high proportion of occupied sites and a high rate of site extinction in the landscape.

Seasonal spatial dynamics of butterfly migration

AbstractUnderstanding the seasonal movements of migratory species underpins ecological studies. Several hundred butterfly species show migratory behaviour, yet the spatial pattern of these migrations is poorly understood. We developed climatic niche models for 405 migratory butterfly species globally to estimate patterns of seasonal movement and the distribution of seasonal habitat suitability. We found strong seasonal variation in habitat suitability for most migratory butterflies with >75% of pixels within their distributions showing seasonal switching in predicted occupancy for 85% of species. The greatest rate of seasonal switching occurred in the tropics. Several species showed extreme range fluctuations between seasons, exceeding 10‐fold for 53 species (13%) and more than 100‐fold for nine species (2%), suggesting that such species may be at elevated extinction risk. Our results can be used to search for the ecological processes that underpin migration in insects, as well as to design conservation interventions for declining migratory insects.

Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species.

Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low‐temperature exposure but may not have become cold‐tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae), living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field‐collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold‐induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point, critical thermal minimum, and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae were determined to be tolerant of chilling but generally die at temperatures below their SCP, suggesting they are chill‐tolerant or modestly freeze‐avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modeling revealed that growing degree‐days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modeling results were consistent with our experimental results: Low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.

Can habitat suitability estimated from MaxEnt predict colonizations and extinctions?

AbstractAimMaxEnt has been widely used to model species’ geographic distributions as functions of environmental variables and to predict changes in distributions in response to environmental change. Here, we test the predictive ability of MaxEnt models through time by modelling colonizations and extinctions.LocationNorth America.MethodsUsing data for 21 species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we first related avian species’ geographic distributions to the spatial variation in environmental conditions. Then, we modelled site‐specific colonizations and extinctions between 1979 and 2009 as functions of MaxEnt‐estimated habitat suitability and neighbourhood occupancy.ResultsWe found that colonization and extinction probabilities were related to spatial variation in habitat suitability, and to neighbourhood occupancy, in the expected directions. However, change in habitat suitability (which is much smaller through time than through space) is a weak predictor of extinction and worse for colonization. This is because a) for most species and most sites, climatic suitability did not change dramatically between 1979 and 2009, and b) the relationship between colonization or extinction probability and change in climatic variables is very weak (r2 = 0.02). Most colonizations and extinctions are apparently unrelated to climate change.Main conclusionsMaxEnt models apparently capture a real effect of habitat suitability on North American bird species’ distributions, but over short and medium time scales, occupancy of neighbouring sites by conspecifics predicts changes in occupancy as well as, or better than changes in climatic habitat suitability, as characterized by MaxEnt. One would not expect species’ distributions to track climate change closely. Prediction of species’ responses to climate change should 1) recognize that the process of colonization and extinction are not equally well predicted by species distribution models and 2) account for the spatial structure of species’ distributions.

Zebra mussel invasion of Texas lakes: estimating dispersal potential via boats

Invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) pose both a significant economic and environmental threat to aquatic systems yet there are currently no effective methods for achieving large-scale eradication. As a result, predicting and preventing their spread play a critical role in management efforts. Zebra mussels were first found in Texas in 2009 and, as of November 2019, have invaded 39 lakes across five river basins. Prior state-specific risk-assessments have been solely based on habitat suitability and have not considered dispersal potential. We developed a water body specific, constrained gravity model incorporating habitat suitability and dispersal potential to predict potential future invasion patterns. We examined the relative importance of habitat suitability, lake attractiveness, the relative risk of different boater types, and the impact of boater compliance with recommended prevention measures. Differences in lake attractiveness resulted in different boater dispersal patterns but the impact on projected lake invasions were reduced by variation in habitat suitability. The model projected zebra mussels to be mainly limited by habitat conditions in east Texas and by dispersal in west Texas. Most lakes in central Texas were projected to become invaded in the near future unless boater compliance with preventive management was high.

Landscape scale variation in the hydrologic niche of California coast redwood

Topoclimatic diversity within forest landscapes can underlie variation in water availability, which may correspond to patterns in habitat suitability of tree species with differing hydrologic niches. However, the trade‐off between the collection of data at a fine grain size over large spatial extents has limited comprehensive analyses of landscape scale variation in habitat suitability. We present a fine scale analysis of the roles of topographic gradients in moisture availability, soil water storage and fog frequency in the spatial pattern of habitat suitability for coast redwood Sequoia sempervirens, at 10 m resolution across 34 800 ha and three landscapes spanning approximately one‐third of redwood's latitudinal range. A new 10 m resolution presence‐absence map derived from airborne imaging spectroscopy was used to characterize current redwood distributions in three landscapes. Access to belowground moisture was assessed through four measures calculated from a high‐resolution LiDAR digital elevation model, soil water storage was mapped from the USDA Soil Survey Geographic Database, and fog frequency was calculated from MODIS cloud cover data. Access to belowground moisture and fog predicted variation in suitability as redwood habitat from 22–75% and predicted redwood presence and absence at 10 m resolution with 63–74% accuracy. Across all three landscapes, redwood density consistently decreased with increasing interpolated height above a stream (IHAS), but the role of other predictors varied among the sites. Our results challenge previous assumptions that redwood habitat suitability within much coarser resolutions (800 m × 800 m) can be described by a single value. The elevated habitat suitability of sites close to streams suggests that these sites should be evaluated for their potential to become microrefugia within landscapes that may become climatically‐unsuitable for redwoods at a regional scale.

Integrating geospatial tools and species for conservation planning in a data-poor region of the Far Eastern Himalayas

ABSTRACTThe Hindu Kush Himalayan region (HKH) is an important biodiversity repository with more than 488 protected areas covering 39% of the region’s geographical coverage. However, a majority of them are small and isolated and are not large enough to address conservation challenges. About 20% of the protected areas are transboundary in nature. Conservation landscape planning based on habitat suitability is an essential step for landscape management, but there are limited data available from the Landscape Initiative for Far Eastern Himalayas (HI-LIFE). To rationalize the need for regional cooperation, this study used remote sensing (RS) data and a geographic information system (GIS) to estimate the habitat suitability for four globally significant speciesconsidering available but limited secondary information. The results showed variation in habitat suitability at an individual species level, but the combined map showed about 43% of the total area as a suitable habitat. Substantial amounts of suitable habitat also recorded from outside the existing protected areas. The results also highlighted the fact that 75.40% of the existing forest within the landscape is intact, the majority of which is outside the existing protected areas. Thus, there is a strong rationale and opportunity to strengthen regional cooperation to safeguard irreplaceable and unique biodiversity resources of this wilderness landscape.

Spatiotemporal dynamics in habitat suitability of a large Arctic herbivore: Environmental heterogeneity is key to a sedentary lifestyle

Quantifying spatial and temporal variation in habitat suitability is crucial to understand changes in animal distribution and to inform conservation and management initiatives, especially for species occupying regions profoundly impacted by climatic and environmental change. A detailed understanding of the environmental conditions shaping seasonal habitat suitability of free-ranging muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus), a key species in the Arctic tundra ecosystem, is currently lacking. We applied the maximum entropy modelling algorithm (MaxEnt) to build seasonal species distribution models (SDMs) over four years to quantify variation in habitat suitability in time and space. Suitable habitat was predicted based on location data from 27 GPS-collared adult female muskoxen in northeast Greenland and the spatial distribution of topographic variables and landcover within the study area. Overall, our results highlight distinct seasonal differences in both the spatial extent and distribution of suitable muskox habitat. Suitable space was smallest and spatially most clustered during autumn, and increased in extent and dispersion throughout the snow-covered period until peaking in summer. Nonetheless, the importance of environmental variables influencing habitat suitability was consistent across inter-annual and seasonal scales as habitat suitability was consistently predicted to be highest in vegetated, flat to moderately rugged terrain at low to medium elevation (<500–600 m.a.s.l.) close to the coast (<5–10 km). One year with extraordinary large amounts of snow differed from the general pattern, exhibiting markedly smaller areas of suitable habitat and higher spatial clustering. The results support the notion that adult female muskoxen are able to lead a relatively sedentary lifestyle due to the close proximity of suitable habitats across all seasons. However, above-average snow depths appear to be a potential bottleneck limiting access to suitable habitat, with consequences even beyond the snow-covered season. Our study provides the foundation for assessing potential future changes in habitat suitability and distribution of this key Arctic herbivore.