Variation In Adult Mortality Research Articles

Where and When: Sharpening the lens on geographic disparities in mortality.

Life course theories suggest that geographic disparities in mortality may reflect a history of place-based exposures rather than (or in addition to) contemporaneous exposures; yet, few studies examined early life place exposures and later life mortality in the US due to data limitations. The aim of this study is to assess and compare the importance of state of birth and state of residence in predicting mortality for adults over age 50 in the US. Using nationally representative data of nearly 100,000 adults over age 50 from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, we estimated individual mortality risk using multi-level logistic regression with state of birth and state of residence as second-level random effects. We assessed whether state of residence and state of birth contributed to the variation in adult mortality. We also decomposed state-of-residence random effects to compare “movers” and “stayers.” Our results indicate that state of birth is a stronger predictor of age-, race/ethnicity- and sex-adjusted mortality in the US than state of residence at the time of death. The adult mortality profiles of many states are substantially impacted by the composition of “movers.” Failing to account for residential mobility has clouded our understanding of the patterns and causes of geographic differences in adult mortality. Measures of geographic residence across the life course can improve models of adult mortality in the US and inform interventions to address geographic disparities in longevity.

Estimating regional variations in adult mortality in Zambia

Background: A dearth of regional level adult mortality estimates exists in Zambia. Regional adult mortality rates reflect inequalities in socioeconomic conditions and health service provision. Adult mortality rates are useful indicators for monitoring effectiveness and impact of health interventions (HIV/AIDS antiretroviral therapy (ART), tuberculosis (TB) and malaria) at regional level. Previous studies have not produced adult mortality rates at regional level. Data Source and Methods: Using data from the 2010 census, this study estimated adult mortality rates at regional level for age group 15-59 years. Age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs), cause-specific mortality rates (CSMRs), standardised mortality rates (SMRS) and probabilities of dying between age 15 and 60 years ( 45 q 15 ) were computed. Correlations with HIV prevalence and literacy rates, and mortality rates were also computed. Findings: Adult mortality rates varied across all provinces. The 45 q 15 was highest for males in Western province, 59 % and lowest in North-western province, 36.7 %. For females, 45 q 15 was highest in Copperbelt province, 47.9 % and lowest in North-western province, 34.8 %. Conclusion: HIV prevalence and literacy rates were positively correlated with regional adult mortality rates. Health policies and programmes aimed at reducing adult mortality should, therefore, be tailored to recognise the regional variations in mortality rates

Age-specific and sex-specific adult mortality risk in India in 2014: analysis of 0·27 million nationally surveyed deaths and demographic estimates from 597 districts.

As child mortality decreases rapidly worldwide, premature adult mortality is becoming an increasingly important contributor to global mortality. Any possible worldwide reduction of premature adult mortality before the age of 70 years will depend on progress in India. Indian districts increasingly have responsibility for implementing public health programmes. We aimed to assess age-specific and sex-specific adult mortality risks in India at the district level. We analysed data from five national surveys of 0·27 million adult deaths at an age of 15-69 years together with 2014 demographic data to estimate age-specific and sex-specific adult mortality risks for 597 districts. Cause of death data were drawn from the verbal autopsies in the Registrar General of India's ongoing Million Death Study. In 2014, about two-fifths of India's men aged 15-69 years lived in the 253 districts where the conditional probability of a man dying at these ages exceeded 50%, and more than a third of India's women aged 15-69 years lived in the 222 districts where the conditional probability of a woman dying exceeded 40%. The probabilities of a man or woman dying by the age of 70 years in high-mortality districts was 62% and 54%, respectively, whereas the probability of a man or woman dying by the age of 70 years in low-mortality districts was 40% and 30%, respectively. The roughly 10-year survival gap between high-mortality and low-mortality districts was nearly as extreme as the survival gap between the entire Indian population and people living in high-income countries. Adult mortality risks at ages 15-69 years was highest in east India and lowest in west India, by contrast with the north-south divide for child mortality. Vascular disease, tuberculosis, malaria and other infections, and respiratory diseases accounted for about 60% of the absolute gap in adult mortality risk at ages 15-69 years between high-mortality and low-mortality districts. Most of the variation in adult mortality could not be explained by known determinants or risk factors for premature mortality. India's large variation in adult mortality by district, notably the higher death rates in eastern India, requires further aetiological research, particularly to explore whether high levels of adult mortality risks from infections and non-communicable diseases are a result of historical childhood malnutrition and infection. Such research can be complemented by an expanded coverage of known effective interventions to reduce adult mortality, especially in high-mortality districts. National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, University of Toronto.

Religion and Infant Mortality in the U.S.: A Preliminary Study of Denominational Variations

Prior research has identified a number of antecedents to infant mortality, but has been focused on either structural (demographic) forces or medical (public health) factors, both of which ignore potential cultural influences. Our study introduces a cultural model for explaining variations in infant mortality, one focused on the role of community-level religious factors. A key impetus for our study is well-established religious variations in adult mortality at the community level. Seeking to extend the growing body of research on contextual-level effects of religion, this study examines the impact of religious ecology (i.e., the institutional market share of particular denominational traditions) on county-level infant mortality in the U.S. Analyses of congregational census and Kids Count data reveal that a high prevalence of Catholic and most types of conservative Protestant churches are associated with lower rates of infant mortality when compared with counties that feature fewer Catholic and conservative Protestant congregations. However, communities with a large proportion of Pentecostal churches exhibit significantly higher infant mortality rates. After discussing the implications of these findings, we specify various directions for future research.

Fluctuations of fish populations and the magnifying effects of fishing

A central and classic question in ecology is what causes populations to fluctuate in abundance. Understanding the interaction between natural drivers of fluctuating populations and human exploitation is an issue of paramount importance for conservation and natural resource management. Three main hypotheses have been proposed to explain fluctuations: (i) species interactions, such as predator-prey interactions, cause fluctuations, (ii) strongly nonlinear single-species dynamics cause fluctuations, and (iii) environmental variation cause fluctuations. We combine a general fisheries model with data from a global sample of fish species to assess how two of these hypothesis, nonlinear single-species dynamics and environmental variation, interact with human exploitation to affect the variability of fish populations. In contrast with recent analyses that suggest fishing drives increased fluctuations by changing intrinsic nonlinear dynamics, we show that single-species nonlinear dynamics alone, both in the presence and absence of fisheries, are unlikely to drive deterministic fluctuations in fish; nearly all fish populations fall into regions of stable dynamics. However, adding environmental variation dramatically alters the consequences of exploitation on the temporal variability of populations. In a variable environment, (i) the addition of mortality from fishing leads to increased temporal variability for all species examined, (ii) variability in recruitment rates of juveniles contributes substantially more to fluctuations than variation in adult mortality, and (iii) the correlation structure of juvenile and adult vital rates plays an important and underappreciated role in determining population fluctuations. Our results are robust to alternative model formulations and to a range of environmental autocorrelation.

Intraurban Variations in Adult Mortality in a Large Latin American City

Urbanization is high and growing in low- and middle-income countries, but intraurban variations in adult health have been infrequently examined. We used spatial analysis methods to investigate spatial variation in total, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and neoplasm adult mortality in Buenos Aires, Argentina, a large city within a middle-income country in Latin America. Conditional autoregressive models were used to examine the contribution of socioeconomic inequalities to the spatial patterning observed. Spatial autocorrelation was present in both men and women for total deaths, cardiovascular deaths, and other causes of death (Moran's Is ranging from 0.15 to 0.37). There was some spatial autocorrelation for respiratory deaths, which was stronger in men than in women. Neoplasm deaths were not spatially patterned. Socioeconomic disadvantage explained some of this spatial patterning and was strongly associated with death from all causes except respiratory deaths in women and neoplasms in men and women [relative rates (RR) for 90th vs 10th percentile of percent of adults with incomplete high school and 95% confidence intervals: 1.23 and 1.09-1.39 vs 1.24 and 1.08-1.42 for total deaths in men and women, respectively; 1.36 and 1.15-1.60 vs 1.22 and 1.01-1.47 for cardiovascular deaths; 1.21 and 0.97-1.52 vs 1.07 and 0.85-1.34 for respiratory deaths; 0.94 and 0.85-1.04 vs 1.03 and 0.87-1.22 for neoplasms; and 1.49 and 1.20-1.85 vs 1.63 and 1.31-2.03 for other deaths]. There is substantial intraurban variation in risk of death within cities. This spatial variability was present for multiple causes of death and is partly explained by the spatial patterning of socioeconomic disadvantage. Our results highlight the pervasive role of space and social inequalities in shaping life and death within large cities.

Overwintering mortality of and host attack by the stem-boring weevil, Mecinus janthinus Germar, on Dalmatian toadflax (Linaria dalmatica (L.) Mill.) in western Canada

Populations of the weevil Mecinus janthinus Germar (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) were monitored at 13 sites in western Canada during the period 1994–1999 to assess the role of overwintering mortality on the establishment of this biocontrol agent introduced against the weed Dalmatian toadflax, Linaria dalmatica (L.) Mill. (Scrophulariaceae). Results indicated that M. janthinus is intolerant of freezing, as evidenced by adult mortalities of 75–100% occurring in about 30% of the site-years examined and whenever winter temperatures reached ⩽−28 °C. Exposure to low sub-zero winter temperatures explained 70% of the variation in adult mortality for sites in British Columbia. An 8-fold increase in adult mortality occurred in winter 1997/98 at one Alberta site monitored soon after temperatures dropped to ⩽−30 °C. Some inconsistencies in the relationship between winter temperatures and adult mortality at the Alberta site may be explained by the presence of insulating snow cover during the coldest temperatures of winters 1993/94 and 1996/97 and unseasonably cold temperatures during the spring of 1995. Despite the high periodic mortalities suffered by M. janthinus at most sites, the incidence and intensity of weevil attack on its host generally increased with time, thus demonstrating the resiliency of weevil populations.

A population-based case-control study for examining early life influences on geographical variation in adult mortality in England and Wales using stomach cancer and stroke as examples

Geographical variation in mortality is influenced by factors operating in early life and in adulthood. The relative contributions of these factors may be examined by comparing the extent to which adult mortality is related to places of residence in early life and at death. We describe a population-based case-control design, in which all deaths are used as cases and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) survivors are used as controls. Cases were all deaths from stomach cancer and stroke in England and Wales 1993-1995 amongst people born between January 1930 and September 1939 and for whom place of enumeration in 1939 could be imputed from the first three characters of their National Health Service number. Controls were all LS members born in the same period, enumerated in the 1991 census, resident in England and Wales in mid-1994 and for whom place of enumeration in 1939 could be similarly imputed. Logistic regression was used, adjusting for birth year, sex and social class. A previous mapping exercise by ONS generated comparable geographical units (counties) for 1939 enumeration and area of residence in 1991 or at death. 'Non-migrant' (i.e. 1939 'county' the same as county in 1991 or at death) case:control ratios were calculated to indicate background mortality risk in counties, with adjustment for imprecision using Bayesian smoothing methods. These ratios were then used in modelling risk for inter-county migrants. There were 2590 stomach cancer and 7778 stroke deaths and 28,400 men and 28,180 women as controls. For men, 64%, 61% and 67% of stomach cancer deaths, stroke deaths and controls respectively could be assigned a county of enumeration in 1939. The corresponding percentages for women were 76%, 72% and 75%. For stomach cancer, after adjustment for county of enumeration in 1939, a significant association with the non-migrant case:control ratio for county of residence in 1991 or at death was observed (P= 0.010), indicating an association between current area of residence and stomach cancer mortality. There was no evidence of an independent effect of county of enumeration in 1939. For stroke, there was a highly significant trend in relation to 1939 county (P = 0.0004)and a less significant association with county of residence in 1991 or at death(P = 0.016). The method described is able to detect the effect of place of residence in early life on geographical variation in adult mortality and will be useful for investigating specific characteristics of areas of enumeration in 1939 in relation to subsequent risk of mortality from a range of diseases.

A population-based case-control study for examining early life influences on geographical variation in adult mortality in England and Wales using stomach cancer and stroke as examples

A population-based case-control study for examining early life influences on geographical variation in adult mortality in England and Wales using stomach cancer and stroke as examples

A minimum data set and empirical model for population health status assessment

Background: The need to assess the health status of American communities in a comprehensive and systematic manner has been widely acknowledged. This study attempts to empirically derive a minimum core data set of indicators, in order to produce a uniform parsimonious model for population health status monitoring. Methods: Five years of secondary data (1992–1996) for 113 indicators of community health for each of Florida’s 67 counties were organized into 11 conceptual groups. Principal component analysis with orthogonal rotation was conducted separately on each group of indicators for each year. The component scores were converted to standard scores to further study the relationships among the conceptual groups measuring community health. A causal model was hypothesized and tested using ordinary least-squares path analysis. Results: Nineteen principal components composed of 78 indicators were identified. The model demonstrated a large difference in the ability to explain variance in adult mortality (56%) compared with variance associated with adverse birth outcomes (13%). Both demographic and socioenvironmental factors have a direct effect on adult mortality. Socioeconomic factors, on the other hand, influence adult mortality indirectly through adequacy of primary care and other available resources. Conclusions: Minimum core data sets of indicators drawn from extant databases can be used to uniformly describe and explain variation in adult mortality. This research suggests caution in regard to the creation of integrated indices that combine mortality, morbidity, and other concepts such as quality of life into a single measure of community health. Further validation research employing a national sample of counties is recommended.

The evolution of demographic tactics in lizards: a test of some hypotheses concerning life history evolution

AbstractWe analyze, with an augmented data base, patterns of covariation of the three primary demographic parameters (age at maturity, fecundity, adult survival, all measured in the same unit of time) in lizards. This also constitutes a first attempt to use all three of these parameters for this group of species. We attempt to place these analyses in the framework of recent theories on life history evolution (Ferrière and Clobert, 1992; Charnov, 1993). Life history data were collected from the literature and from our original work, and a composite phylogeny was assembled, based on a variety of published sources. Using a phylogenetically based statistical method (independent contrasts), the allometric (log‐log) relationship of fecundity (and of clutch size) in relation to snout‐vent length was found to differ significantly between the two major clades of extant lizards, Iguania (43 species in our data set) and Scleroglossa (47 species). We therefore emphasize analyses done separately for the two clades. Without removing correlations with body size, the relationships between fecundity and survival, and between fecundity and age at maturity, were also found to differ between clades, which differs from Charnov's (1993) predictions. When correlations with body size were removed statistically, however, the two clades did not differ significantly in these relationships. In a principal components analysis (PCA) of the three demographic variables plus snout‐vent length, the first axis explained the majority (53–57%) of variation in both clades, while the second axis explained 27–31% of the variation and loaded mainly on fecundity. In a PCA of size‐adjusted demographic variables residuals (from log‐log regressions on snout‐vent length), the first axis explained 66–68% of the variation and was clearly interpretable as the classical “slow‐fast” continuum, which has been described in birds and mammals. The PCA of residuals did not provide clear evidence of additional significant patterns of covariation. However, the rate of evolution of mortality (size‐corrected), but not of fecundity or age at maturity, differed significantly between clades. Furthermore, fecundity and age at maturity, both corrected for variation in adult mortality (in addition to body size), were still significantly related, indicating the existence of other patterns of variation in these life history traits. In other words, the ratios between age at maturity and adult mortality, or between fecundity and adult mortality, were not found to be invariant, because the variation not accounted for by these ratios was significantly associated with variation in another variable. This result contradicts the prediction of Charnov (1993), and suggests the existence of other directions of evolution in these life history traits.

Sensitivity Analysis of a Stochastic Model for the Sheep Blowfly Lucilia sericata

Using empirically derived relationships between temperature and development rate, a stochastic simulation model was used to predict the seasonal pattern of abundance of the sheep blowfly Lucilia sericata. Sensitivity analysis suggests that, at the levels of mortality observed on sheep farms in Britain, L. sericata abundance may not be strongly influenced by the number of oviposition sites available. Hence, control techniques aimed at reducing the number of sites in the field may have little impact on the blowfly population and the resulting incidence of sheep strike. The model shows that variations in adult mortality have a much greater effect on the blowfly population than variations in pre-adult mortality, both in terms of the number of flies present in each generation and the probability of extinction of the population. With levels of pre-adult mortality of 50% per generation, adult mortality levels in excess of 30% per day would be needed to prevent the growth of a population of L. sericata. In contrast, at the lowest level of adult mortality examined, pre-adult mortality levels of 90% per generation were unable to prevent the population from increasing. The simulations suggest that unless consistently high levels of larval mortality can be maintained by a control programme, suppression of a L. sericata population is unlikely to be achieved. In contrast, relatively small increases in adult mortality may have a significant impact on L. sericata abundance, and attempts to suppress L. sericata populations by targeting the adult population may be an effective future approach.

Factors Affecting Recruitment and Mortality Rates of Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus Mordax) in Lake Erie, 1963–85

Recruitment of young-of-the-year (YOY)rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax) per parent was nqt dependent upon water temperature (rate of warming and average temperature) during spawning, Glugea infestation, or parental stock-size. Only in the eastern basin of Lake Erie was recruitment to age 1 + years-old positively correlated with the YOY index in the preceding summer. Recruitment of age 1 + year-old smelt was not related to parental stock-size. Recruitment (age 1 + years-old) per spawner was inversely related to the abundance of age 1 year-old smelt present during the year of hatch in both the eastern and central basins of Lake Erie. This could be taken as evidence to support the hypothesis that the alternating dominance of year-classes (1963–74) was caused by cannibalism of YOY by age 1 year-old smelt. After 1974, alternating year-class-dominance was not evident; we considered three possible explanations for the absence of strong year-classes. First, the size at age declined in both basins during the study so that more age classes could have fed optimally on young-of-year (YOY), resulting in a poorer survival of YOY smelt. Second, the harvest of smelt increased greatly after 1974, particularly for yearling smelt, so that year-class strength measured by the abundance of yearlings was reduced by fishing. Third, predation on smelt by stocked salmonids probably increased after 1974 as the stocking rates increased. Adult total mortality rates (ages 2 and 3 years-old) were positively related to stock density providing some evidence for density dependent mortality of smelt. There was no evidence that the variations in adult mortality were associated with the incidence of Glugea.

Variation in Adult Mortality and Knockdown Caused by Insecticides Among Populations of Diamondback Moth (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

Diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), adults from three populations in Hawaii were tested for mortality and knockdown responses to DDT, diazinon, fenvalerate, and permethrin. For each insecticide, mortality and knockdown differed significantly among populations. Males and females responded similarly. Diazinon was least toxic and permethrin was most toxic to all three populations. Overall, adult mortality and knockdown were correlated with larval LC30’s across insecticide-population combinations, but adults from one population with DDT-resistant larvae were not resistant to DDT. Monitoring resistance in diamondback moth larvae by testing pheromone-attracted males merits exploration.

Relationships between Selected Population Phenomena and Annual Bobwhite Age Ratios

Relationships between fall age ratios of bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) and certain population phenomena are discussed, based on a computer simulation and 17 years of data from the Carbondale Research Area in southern Illinois. Annual variation in the percentage of juveniles in fall populations on the study area was more strongly correlated with population change from fall to fall and spring to fall than with fall densities per se. Simulation techniques were used to demonstrate the combined effect of changes in proportions of hens successful and survival rates of juveniles and adults on relative population gains from spring to fall. Comparisons were made of the use of young:adult ratios and percentages of juveniles as indicators of these gains. Results of the simulation suggest that variation in juvenile mortality influences percent summer gain more than does variation in adult summer losses. However, the relationship between summer gains and the subsequent percentage of juveniles in the fall is altered by annual variation in adult mortality. In contrast, this relationship is not significantly changed by annual variation in juvenile mortality because the latter exerts an almost equal influence on both relative productivity and fall age ratios. Finally, the relationship between productivity and the proportion of juveniles in the fall is curvilinear, whereas the ratio of juveniles per adult is linearly responsive to productivity, making the latter a preferable index of breeding success. J. WILDL. MANAGE. 38(4):665-673 Over the past 30-plus years, literally hundreds of thousands of wings from harvested bobwhites have been collected for the purpose of estimating sex and age structure of the parent populations (Rosene 1969:385386). There is not, however, unanimity among researchers as to how these data may be interpreted. Proportions of juveniles in fall populations (Pj) are considered indicative of mean annual mortality rates (Hickey 1955:343), but these age ratios do not reflect year-to-year variation in mortality unless the population is stable (Marsden and Baskett 1958:415). More often, fall age ratios are used as indices of productivity and survival the previous summer (Leopold 1945, Speake and Haugen 1960). Age ratios have also been related to fall densities (Lay 1952:23, Reid and Goodrum 1960:244, Speake and Haugen 1960:94) and population change (Legler 1955:17). Stanford (1973:129), though, warned that high young: adult ratios are not always associated with high total production or populations as has often been assumed. Bennitt (1951:32-35), in fact, reported an inverse relationship between annual Pj and fall densities in Missouri. He believed that this negative correlation was due to the phenomenon of inversity (Errington 1945) whereby high reproductive rates (and thus high Pj) were usually associated with low breeding densities, which were often followed by low total production and low fall populations. Similarly, MacDonald (1964:6-7) concluded that highest hen:poult turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) ratios came during years of lowest numbers of hens and thus did not indicate highest total productivity or fall populations. This paper attempts to clarify some of the relationships among annual Pj, young: adult ratios, relative productivity, juvenile and adult survival, population change, and fall densities using computer simulation techniques as well as 17 years of data from a hunted bobwhite population in southern Illinois. This material is a contribution from Project No. 1: Bobwhite Quail Life History J. Wildl. Manage. 38 (4):1974 665 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.186 on Tue, 12 Apr 2016 09:23:09 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 666 BOBWHITE AGE RATIOS * Roseberry