Variability Of Meridional Overturning Circulation Research Articles

Labrador sea water spreading and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

In 1982, Talley and McCartney used the low potential vorticity signature of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) to make the first North Atlantic maps of its properties. Forty years later, our understanding of LSW variability, spreading time scales and importance has deepened. In this review and synthesis article, I showcase recent observational advances in our understanding of how LSW spreads from its formation regions into the Deep Western Boundary Current and southward into the subtropical North Atlantic. I reconcile the fact that decadal variability in LSW formation is reflected in the Deep Western Boundary Current with the fact that LSW formation does not control subpolar overturning strength and discuss hypothesized connections between LSW spreading and decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability. Ultimately, LSW spreading is of fundamental interest because it is a significant pathway for dissolved gasses such as oxygen and carbon dioxide into the deep ocean. We should hence prioritize adding dissolved gas measurements to standard hydrographic and circulation observations, particularly at targeted western boundary locations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Comparing the Contributions of Temperature and Salinity Changes to the AMOC Decline at 26.5°N

Abstract At 26.5°N in the North Atlantic, a continuous transbasin observational array has been established since 2004 to detect the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The observational record shows that the subtropical Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has weakened by 2.5 ± 1.5 Sv (as mean ± 95% interval; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) since 2008 compared to the initial 4-yr average. Strengthening of the upper southward geostrophic transport (with a 2.6 ± 1.6 Sv southward increase) derived from thermal wind dominates this Atlantic meridional overturning circulation decline. We decompose the geostrophic transport into its temperature and salinity components to compare their contributions to the transport variability. The contributions of temperature and salinity components to the southward geostrophic transport strengthening are 1.0 ± 2.5 and 1.6 ± 1.3 Sv, respectively. The variation of salinity component is significant at the 95% confidence level, while the temperature component’s variation is not. This result highlights the vital role that salinity plays in the subtropical Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, which has been overlooked in previous studies. We further analyze the geostrophic transport variations and their temperature and salinity components arising from different water masses, which shows that a warming signal in Labrador Sea Water and a freshening signal in Nordic Sea Water are two prominent sources of the geostrophic transport increase. Comparison of the temperature and salinity records of the 26.5°N array with the upstream records from repeated hydrographic sections across the Labrador Sea suggests that these thermohaline signals may be exported from the subpolar Atlantic via the deep western boundary current.

Machine Learning‐Derived Inference of the Meridional Overturning Circulation From Satellite‐Observable Variables in an Ocean State Estimate

AbstractThe oceanic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) plays a key role in the climate system, and monitoring its evolution is a scientific priority. Monitoring arrays have been established at several latitudes in the Atlantic Ocean, but other latitudes and oceans remain unmonitored for logistical reasons. This study explores the possibility of inferring the MOC from globally‐available satellite measurements via machine learning (ML) techniques, using the ECCOV4 state estimate as a test bed. The methodological advantages of the present approach include the use purely of available satellite data, its applicability to multiple basins within a single ML framework, and the ML model simplicity (a feed‐forward fully connected neural network (NN) with small number of neurons). The ML model exhibits high skill in MOC reconstruction in the Atlantic, Indo‐Pacific, and Southern Oceans. The approach achieves a higher skill in predicting the model Southern Ocean abyssal MOC than has previously been achieved via a dynamically‐based approach. The skill of the model is quantified as a function of latitude in each ocean basin, and of the time scale of MOC variability. We find that ocean bottom pressure generally has the highest reconstruction skill potential, followed by zonal wind stress. We additionally test which combinations of variables are optimal. Furthermore, ML interpretability techniques are used to show that high reconstruction skill in the Southern Ocean is mainly due to (NN processing of) bottom pressure variability at a few prominent bathymetric ridges. Finally, the potential for reconstructing MOC strength estimates from real satellite measurements is discussed.

Submesoscale inverse energy cascade enhances Southern Ocean eddy heat transport

Oceanic eddy-induced meridional heat transport (EHT) is an important process in the Southern Ocean heat budget, the variability of which significantly modulates global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and Antarctic sea-ice extent. Although it is recognized that mesoscale eddies with scales of ~40–300 km greatly contribute to the EHT, the role of submesoscale eddies with scales of ~1–40 km remains unclear. Here, using two state-of-the-art high-resolution simulations (resolutions of 1/48° and 1/24°), we find that submesoscale eddies significantly enhance the total poleward EHT in the Southern Ocean with an enhancement percentage reaching 19–48% in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current band. By comparing the eddy energy budgets between the two simulations, we detect that the primary role of submesoscale eddies is to strengthen mesoscale eddies (and thus their heat transport capability) through inverse energy cascade rather than directly through submesoscale heat fluxes. Due to the submesoscale-mediated enhancement of mesoscale eddies in the 1/48° simulation, the clockwise upper cell and anti-clockwise lower cell of the residual-mean MOC in the Southern Ocean are weakened and strengthened, respectively. This finding identifies a potential route to improve the mesoscale parameterization in climate models for more accurate simulations of the MOC and sea ice variability in the Southern Ocean.

Mechanism of Interannual Cross‐Equatorial Overturning Anomalies in the Pacific Ocean

AbstractThe meridional overturning circulation (MOC) transports heat and mass between the tropics and the extratropics. Recent research has shown that the variability of the Indo‐Pacific MOC dominates the variability of the global MOC on interannual timescales, and this variability is characterized by a prominent cross‐equatorial cell (CEC) spanning the tropics. This CEC is a potentially important influence on interannual climate variability, but the mechanism responsible for the CEC is not understood. This study seeks to elucidate the mechanism of the CEC using two observational estimates of the ocean. Our analysis shows that the CEC can be explained by the following mechanistic chain: (a) Anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle produce equatorially antisymmetric density anomalies in the upper Pacific Ocean (above approximately 500 m); (b) these density anomalies generate equatorially antisymmetric anomalies of sea surface height (SSH); (c) these SSH anomalies generate a cross‐equatorial flow above approximately 1,000 m; and (d) this anomalous cross‐equatorial flow drives compensating flow below approximately 1,000 m. This mechanism contrasts with that responsible for anomalous cross‐equatorial overturning on seasonal timescales, which is primarily the Ekman response to equatorially antisymmetric anomalies of zonal wind stress. On interannual timescales, the zonal wind stress anomalies associated with the CEC are equatorially symmetric, and steric SSH variations are the dominant driver of the CEC. These insights may lead to improved understanding and prediction of interannual climate variability.

Strong Southern African Monsoon and weak Mozambique Channel throughflow during Heinrich events: Implication for Agulhas leakage

The Mozambique Channel is a conduit of trade wind-driven throughflow that is a key component of the Agulhas Current and Agulhas leakage, a flux of warm and salty water from the tropical Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean. Agulhas leakage is thought to modulate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability. Previous studies from the Cape Basin suggest that enhanced Agulhas leakage played an important role in accelerating glacial terminations. The southern African monsoon response to abrupt climate changes associated with meltwater-induced reorganizations of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and its impact on the Mozambique Channel throughflow and, by extension, on the Agulhas leakage is not well understood. Here we present a high-resolution 26,000 year-long hydroclimate record of northern Madagascar, a core region of the southern hemisphere monsoon domain, and a mixed layer temperature reconstruction using sediment cores collected from the runoff-influenced eastern Mozambique Channel. The record indicates precipitation increases centered at 11.7-12.5 thousand years before present (kyr BP), 14.5-19 kyr BP, 23-24 kyr BP, 25-26 kyr BP. Considering age model uncertainties, this is the first strong evidence for southern African monsoon strengthening in response to meltwater-induced northern high latitude climate instabilities during the Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), HS2 and the HS-like event prior to HS2, in agreement with the results of transient climate simulations. Furthermore, our study shows a reversal of the mixed layer temperature gradient between the western and eastern Mozambique Channel during Heinrich event 1 (HE1). We posit that the gradient reversal indicates a weakening of the trade wind-driven South Equatorial Current and Mozambique Channel throughflow that likely weakened the Agulhas leakage, potentially creating a feedback that may have contributed to the sustained weakening of the AMOC during HE1 by reducing the amount of heat and salt leakage into the Atlantic.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Subpolar North Atlantic Diagnosed From a High Resolution Reanalysis Data Set

AbstractSubpolar North Atlantic is a vital region to modulate the variation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). Recently, trans‐basin mooring arrays were deployed to monitor the meridional volume and heat transport in this region. Motivated by these new observations, this study investigates the structure and variability of MOC using a high resolution data assimilative reanalysis product. Our results indicate that the reanalysis product successfully captures the vertical structure and variability for the basinwide integrated stream function. In accord with observations, the meridional volume transport across the section from Greenland to Scotland (i.e., the East Section) is much stronger than that in the Labrador Sea (i.e., the West Section). While the boundary currents in the Labrador Sea display dramatic seasonal variations, their seasonal cycles are largely compensated, leading to very weak seasonality in the MOC. On the other hand, the MOC across the East section has an apparent seasonal cycle with the density changes in the Irminger Basin playing a dominant role. On the interannual time scale, MOC variations across both the West and East sections have comparable amplitudes. In addition, we further split the MOC fluctuations into components induced by barotropic and baroclinic processes. The decomposed fields point out that the isopycnal layer thickness at the west of Greenland is the primary factor to modulate the MOC interannual variability across the West section. MOC interannual variability across the East section is mostly determined by barotropic velocity changes near the pathway of the North Atlantic Current.

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation modulation of late Pleistocene to middle Holocene Asian summer monsoon variability and palaeoanthropological implications

AbstractAsia contains more than half the world’s population, and their lives are significantly related to summer monsoon moisture supply. Here, we investigate features and dynamics of late Pleistocene–middle Holocene Asian summer monsoon variability in the Nihewan Basin, North China, which was a critical home for early humans in East Asia throughout the Quaternary. We present new mineral magnetic records between ∼16 and 6 ka from the Yujiagou archeological site in the northern Nihewan Basin, which contains >40 000 stone tools, 2 pottery pieces and 19 686 mammal fossils. Magnetic properties of the Yujiagou section are dominated by pedogenic fine-grained magnetite/maghemite concentration, which ranges from superparamagnetic/single domain up to fine pseudo-single domain sizes. We use multiple environmental magnetic proxies, which measure pedogenic magnetite/maghemite concentration, to document that summer monsoon precipitation was low before ∼14.5 ka and high during the Bölling–Allerød warm period (14.5–12.8 ka), and shifted to low values at the onset of the Young Dryas cold period ∼12.4 ka, followed by a sustained long-term increasing trend from 12.4 to 6 ka. We relate these monsoon precipitation changes to the consistent Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability, which modulated North Hemisphere temperatures and displacements of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and Walker circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The observed large-amplitude deglacial Asian monsoon changes may have played a role in several key evolutionary changes in Asia implicated by the Yujiagou archeological evidence, including Paleolithic to Neolithic culture transition, Asian pottery development, and early human dispersals from Asia to America.

The Observation-Based Application of a Regional Thermohaline Inverse Method to Diagnose the Formation and Transformation of Water Masses North of the OSNAP Array from 2013 to 2015

AbstractThe strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the North Atlantic is dependent upon the formation of dense waters that occurs at high northern latitudes. Wintertime deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas forms the intermediate water mass known as Labrador Sea Water (LSW). Changes in the rate of formation and subsequent export of LSW are thought to play a role in MOC variability, but formation rates are uncertain and the link between formation and export is complex. We present the first observation-based application of a recently developed regional thermohaline inverse method (RTHIM) to a region encompassing the Arctic and part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for the years 2013, 2014, and 2015. RTHIM is a novel method that can diagnose the formation and export rates of water masses such as the LSW identified by their temperature and salinity, apportioning the formation rates into contributions from surface fluxes and interior mixing. We find LSW formation rates of up to 12 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) during 2014–15, a period of strong wintertime convection, and around half that value during 2013 when convection was weak. We also show that the newly convected water is not exported directly, but instead is mixed isopycnally with warm, salty waters that have been advected into the region, before the products are then exported. RTHIM solutions for 2015 volume, heat, and freshwater transports are compared with observations from a mooring array deployed for the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) and show good agreement, lending validity to our results.

Interannual Variability of the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation Dominated by Pacific Variability

AbstractThe most prominent feature of the time-mean global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is the Atlantic MOC (AMOC). However, interannual variability of the global MOC is shown here to be dominated by Pacific MOC (PMOC) variability over the full depth of the ocean at most latitudes. This dominance of interannual PMOC variability is robust across modern climate models and an observational state estimate. PMOC interannual variability has large-scale organization, its most prominent feature being a cross-equatorial cell spanning the tropics. Idealized experiments show that this variability is almost entirely wind driven. Interannual anomalies of zonal mean zonal wind stress produce zonally integrated Ekman transport anomalies that are larger in the Pacific Ocean than in the Atlantic Ocean, simply because the Pacific is wider than the Atlantic at most latitudes. This contrast in Ekman transport variability implies greater variability in the near-surface branch of the PMOC when compared with the near-surface branch of the AMOC. These near-surface variations in turn drive compensating flow anomalies below the Ekman layer. Because the baroclinic adjustment time is longer than a year at most latitudes, these compensating flow anomalies have baroclinic structure spanning the full depth of the ocean. Additional analysis reveals that interannual PMOC variations are the dominant contribution to interannual variations of the global meridional heat transport. There is also evidence of interaction between interannual PMOC variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

The Indian Ocean Deep Meridional Overturning Circulation in Three Ocean Reanalysis Products

AbstractThe time mean Indian Ocean (IO) deep meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is compared across three ocean reanalysis products (ORAS4, GECCO2, and GFDL). The MOC stream functions obtained by vertically integrating the mass flux across a latitude‐depth section in three products are found to be significantly different from each other. Detailed analysis suggests that ORAS4 delivers the best depiction of IO MOC. The inferred IO deep MOC consists of two deep and strong counterclockwise cells located south of 30°S and around 10°S, respectively. The geostrophic component along with the barotropic or external mode dominates the former, and a combination of Ekman and geostrophic components dominates the latter. GECCO2 depicts a steady decline in the northward meridional transport in the bottom layer and a consequent reduction in the MOC strength. The tropical thermocline in GECCO2 responds to this MOC variability leading to rapid and monotonic warming of the tropical IO.

Robust and Nonrobust Aspects of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability and Mechanisms in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract Robust and nonrobust aspects of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability and mechanisms are analyzed in several 600-yr simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The simulations consist of a set of cases where a few loosely constrained ocean model parameter values are changed, a pair of cases where round-off level perturbations are applied to the initial atmospheric temperature field, and a millennium-scale integration. The time scales of variability differ among the cases with the dominant periods ranging from decadal to centennial. These dominant periods are not stationary in time, indicating that a robust characterization of AMOC temporal variability requires long, multimillennium-scale simulations. A robust aspect is that positive anomalies of the Labrador Sea (LS) upper-ocean density and boundary layer depth and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation lead AMOC strengthening by 2–3 years. Respective contributions of temperature and salinity to these density anomalies vary across the simulations, but in a majority of the cases temperature contributions dominate. Following an AMOC intensification, all cases show that advection of warm and salty waters into the LS region results in near-neutral density anomalies. Analysis of the LS heat budget indicates that temperature acts to increase density in all cases prior to an AMOC intensification, primarily due to losses by sensible and latent heat fluxes. The accompanying salt budget analysis reveals that the salt contribution to density anomalies varies across the cases, taking both positive and negative values.

The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability

AbstractThe Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI‐GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI‐GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI‐GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI‐GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects.

Local and Downstream Relationships between Labrador Sea Water Volume and North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability

Abstract While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively or validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean–sea ice models forced by the same interannually varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy-permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.

A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic.

To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.

Contrasting the Effects of the 1850–1975 Increase in Sulphate Aerosols from North America and Europe on the Atlantic in the CESM

AbstractThe extent and mechanisms of the Atlantic response to the historical (1850–1975) increase of sulphate aerosol emissions from North America and Europe as simulated in eight‐member ensemble experiments with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1)‐Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 are contrasted. The results show that aerosols from either source cause a long‐term cooling of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, with the patterns a combination of atmospheric aerosol effects and an aerosol‐induced strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The response to North American emissions is larger since prevailing winds cause wider aerosol spread over the Atlantic, collocated with climatological cloud cover. The Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southward affecting tropical precipitation globally. The simulated (multi)decadal components of sea surface temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability are furthermore primarily externally forced. The analysis provides novel insights into the mechanisms of aerosol impact on the Atlantic. It suggests that projected further emission reductions will lead to opposite changes.

Meridional Overturning Circulation Transport Variability at 34.5°S During 2009–2017: Baroclinic and Barotropic Flows and the Dueling Influence of the Boundaries

AbstractSix years of simultaneous moored observations near the western and eastern boundaries of the South Atlantic are combined with satellite winds to produce a daily time series of the basin‐wide meridional overturning circulation (MOC) volume transport at 34.5°S. The results demonstrate that barotropic and baroclinic signals at both boundaries cause significant transport variations, and as such must be concurrently observed. The data, spanning ~20 months during 2009–2010 and ~4 years during 2013–2017, reveal a highly energetic MOC record with a temporal standard deviation of 8.3 Sv, and strong variations at time scales ranging from a few days to years (peak‐to‐peak range = 54.6 Sv). Seasonal transport variations are found to have both semiannual (baroclinic) and annual (Ekman and barotropic) timescales. Interannual MOC variations result from both barotropic and baroclinic changes, with density profile changes at the eastern boundary having the largest impact on the year‐to‐year variations.

Remote influence of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on the South Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

AbstractThis study explores potential factors that may influence decadal variability of the South Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (SAMOC) by using observational data as well as surface‐forced ocean model runs and a fully coupled climate model run. Here we show that SAMOC is strongly correlated with the leading mode of sea surface height (SSH) variability in the South Atlantic Ocean, which displays a meridional dipole between north and south of 20°S. A significant portion (~45%) of the South Atlantic SSH dipole variability is remotely modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Further analysis shows that anomalous tropical Pacific convection associated with the IPO forces robust stationary Rossby wave patterns, modulating the wind stress curl over the South Atlantic Ocean. A positive (negative) phase IPO increases (decreases) the westerlies over the South Atlantic, which increases (decreases) the strength of the subtropical gyre in the South Atlantic and thus the SAMOC.

Suppression of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability at Increased CO2

AbstractMultidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is shown to differ significantly between the 4 × CO2 and preindustrial control simulations of the GFDL Earth System Model, version 2M (ESM2M) general circulation model (GCM). In the preindustrial simulation, this model has a peak in the power spectrum of both AMOC and northward heat transport at latitudes between 26° and 50°N. In the 4 × CO2 simulation, the only significant spectral peak is near 60°N. Understanding these differences is important for understanding the effect of future climate change on climate variability, as well as for providing insight into the physics underlying AMOC variability. Transfer function analysis demonstrates that the shift is predominantly due to a shift in the internal ocean dynamics rather than a change in stochastic atmospheric forcing. Specifically, the reduction in variance from 26° to 45°N is due to an increased stratification east of Newfoundland that results from the shallower and weaker mean overturning. The reduced AMOC variance that accompanies the reduced mean value of the AMOC at 4 × CO2 differs from predictions of simple box models that predict a weaker circulation to be closer to a stability bifurcation point and, therefore, be accompanied by amplified variability. The high-latitude variability in the 4 × CO2 simulation is related to the advection of anomalies by the subpolar gyre, distinct from the variability mechanism in the control simulation at lower latitudes. The 4 × CO2 variability has only a small effect on midlatitude meridional heat transport, but does significantly affect sea ice in the northern North Atlantic.

Compensation between meridional flow components of the Atlantic MOC at 26° N

Abstract. From ten years of observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) at 26° N (2004–2014), we revisit the question of flow compensation between components of the circulation. Contrasting with early results from the observations, transport variations of the Florida Current (FC) and upper mid-ocean (UMO) transports (top 1000 m east of the Bahamas) are now found to compensate on sub-annual timescales. The observed compensation between the FC and UMO transports is associated with horizontal circulation and means that this part of the correlated variability does not project onto the MOC. A deep baroclinic response to wind-forcing (Ekman transport) is also found in the lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW; 3000–5000 m) transport. In contrast, co-variability between Ekman and the LNADW transports does contribute to overturning. On longer timescales, the southward UMO transport has continued to strengthen, resulting in a continued decline of the MOC. Most of this interannual variability of the MOC can be traced to changes in isopycnal displacements on the western boundary, within the top 1000 m and below 2000 m. Substantial trends are observed in isopycnal displacements in the deep ocean, underscoring the importance of deep boundary measurements to capture the variability of the Atlantic MOC.