Flood Variability Research Articles

Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period

Abstract. Flash floods, characterized by their sudden onset, extreme discharge, short duration, material damage, and human loss, represent a significant natural hazard. Not well covered by standard hydrological observations, flash flood data can primarily be derived from various types of documentary evidence. This evidence served as the main data source for creating a flash flood database for the Czech Republic from 2001 to 2023. This database enabled detailed analysis of different aspects of flash floods. The annual series of 233 flash flood events, 160 flash flood days, and 424 affected municipalities showed significant inter-annual variability but no linear trends. The triggering rainfall that generates flash floods was analyzed with respect to 1–3-hourly and daily precipitation totals and circulation types from the objective classification. While flash floods can occur anywhere, they were more frequently recorded at the foots of mountain slopes, often coinciding with “critical points” where built-up areas meet concentrated surface runoff pathways. The division of material damage caused by flash floods into eight categories indicated that the highest proportion of damage was to streets and communications (24.3 %), to houses (21.7 %), and to their cellars and basements (18.3 %). There were also 36 recorded fatalities. The understanding of flash floods in the Czech Republic aligns generally well with studies of flash floods in other European regions.

Frequency and Spatial Variability of European Record Floods

AbstractRegional envelope curves (RECs) have been used to characterize the flooding potential of regions worldwide. However, a comprehensive assessment for Europe is still missing. In this study we use the largest European flood database to quantify the magnitude of record floods, their dependence on catchment size, and the amount of available independent information, which is needed for estimatinig the REC's exceedance probability. We propose a framework for estimating REC parameters across large areas, consisting in partitioning the domain according to the observation density and estimating the REC slope through quantile regression. The results show that the REC parameters vary substantially across Europe. The envelope unit flood associated with a catchment area of 1,000 km2 varies between 0.1 and 6 m3s−1 km−2 and is highest in Mediterranean and Alpine areas and lowest in central‐eastern Europe. The slope of the envelope varies between 0 and −1 and is larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. These differences are explained by steeper landscape in mountaineous regions and localized short duration storms producing large floods in small catchments in the Mediterranean, whose intensities are larger than in other parts of Europe. Based on the framework of probabilistic envelope curves we show that, despite the uneven observation density, the obtained RECs are associated with comparable exceedance probabilities.

50-year seasonal variability in East African droughts and floods recorded in central Afar lake sediments (Ethiopia) and their connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

Abstract. Understanding past and present hydrosystem feedbacks to global ocean–atmospheric interactions represents one of the main challenges to preventing droughts, extreme events, and related human catastrophes in the face of global warming, especially in arid and semiarid environments. In eastern Africa, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as one of the primary drivers of precipitation variability affecting water availability. However, the northern East African Rift System (EARS) still suffers from the underrepresentation of predictive and ENSO teleconnection models because of the scarcity of local to regional historical or palaeo-data. In this paper, we provide a 50-year seasonal flood and drought chronicle of the Awash River catchment from the study of laminated sediment from Gemeri and Afambo lakes (central Afar region, Ethiopia) with the aim of reconstructing the magnitude of regional hydroclimatic events. Pluricentimetric micro-laminated lithogenic facies alternating with plurimillimetric carbonate-enriched facies are investigated in both lakes. We couple dating methods including radiocarbon, short-lived radionuclides, palaeomagnetic field variations, and varve counting on both lake deposits to build a high-resolution age model and to discuss the regional hydrosedimentary dynamics of the Awash River over the last ∼ 700 years with a focus on the last 50 years. Using a multiproxy approach, we observe that following a multicentennial enhanced hydrological period, the two lakes have experienced a gradual decrease in river load inflow since 1979 CE, attaining extreme drought and high evaporative conditions between 1991 and 1997 CE. In 2014, the construction of a dam and increased agricultural water management in the lower Awash River plain impacted the erodibility of local soils and the hydrosedimentary balance of the lake basins, as evidenced by a disproportionate sediment accumulation rate. Comparison of our quantitative reconstruction with (i) lake water surface evolution, (ii) the interannual Awash River flow rates, and (iii) the El Niño 3.4 model highlights the intermittent connections between ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies, regional droughts, and hydrological conditions in the northern EARS.

Changed Seasonality and Forcings of Peak Annual Flows in Ephemeral Channels at Flagstaff, Northern Arizona, USA

Flood variability associated with urbanization, ecological change, and climatic change is of increasing economic and social concern in and around Flagstaff, Arizona, where flood hydrology is influenced by a biannual precipitation regime and the relatively unique geologic setting at the edge of the San Francisco Volcanic Field on the southern edge of the Colorado Plateau. There has been limited long-term gauging of the ephemeral channels draining the developed lands and dry coniferous forests of the region, resulting in a spaciotemporal gap in observation-based assessments of large-scale flooding patterns. We present new data from over 10 years of flood monitoring using a crest stage gauge network, combined with other channel monitoring records from multiple agency sources, to assess inter-decadal patterns of flood change in the area, with a specific emphasis on examining how various controls and disturbances have altered the character and seasonality of peak annual flows. Methods of analysis included the following: using Fisher’s Exact Test to compare the seasonality of flooding between historic data spanning the 1970s and contemporary data obtained since 2010; summarizing GIS-based spatial data and meteorological timeseries to characterize study catchment conditions and changes between flood study periods; and relating spatiotemporal patterns of flood seasonality and occurrences of notably large floods with catchment characteristics and environmental changes. Our results show systematic patterns and changes in Flagstaff-area flood regimes that relate to geologic and topographic controls of the varied catchment systems, and in response to records of climate variations and local catchment disturbances, including urbanization and, especially, high-severity wildfire. For most catchments there has been a shift from predominantly late winter to spring snowmelt floods, or mixed seasonal flood regimes, towards monsoon-dominated flooding, patterns which may relate to observed local warming and precipitation changes. Post-wildfire flooding has produced extreme flood discharges which have likely exceeded historical estimates of flood magnitude over decade-long monitoring periods by one to two orders of magnitude. We advocate for continued monitoring and the expansion of local stream gauge networks to enable seasonal, magnitude-frequency trend analyses, improved climate and environmental change attribution, and to better inform the many planned and ongoing flood mitigation projects being undertaken in the increasingly developed Flagstaff region.

Flood Potential Portal: A web tool for understanding flood variability and predicting peak discharges

AbstractThe Flood Potential Portal (https://floodpotential.erams.com/) has been developed for the contiguous United States, as a practitioner‐focused tool that uses observational data (streamgages) to enhance understanding of how floods vary in space and time, and assist users in making more informed peak discharge predictions for infrastructure design and floodplain management. This capability is presented through several modules. The Mapping module provides tools to explore variability using multiple indices, and provides detailed information, figures, and algorithms describing and comparing flooding characteristics. The Cross‐Section Analysis module allows users to cut regional‐scale sections to interpret the role of topography in driving flood variability. The Watershed Analysis module provides multiple methods for quantifying expected peak discharge magnitudes and flood frequency relationships at user‐selected locations, including the integration of observed trends in flood magnitudes due to climate change and other sources of nonstationarity into decision making. The Streamgage Analysis module performs streamgage flood‐frequency analyses. These modules are based in part on the flood potential method, through the use of 207 zones of similar flood response defined using more than 8200 streamgages with watershed areas <10,000 km2. Regression models that define each zone had high explained variance (average R2 = 0.93). An example is provided to illustrate use of the Flood Potential Portal for the design of a hypothetical bridge replacement.

Variability in flood frequency in sub-Saharan Africa: The role of large-scale climate modes of variability and their future impacts

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is strongly affected by flood hazards, endangering human lives and economic stability. However, the role of internal climate modes of variability in driving fluctuations in SSA flood occurrence remains poorly documented and understood. To address this gap, we quantify the relative and combined contribution of large-scale climate drivers to seasonal and regional flood occurrence using a new 65-year daily streamflow dataset, sea-surface temperatures derived from observations, and 12 Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensembles (SMILEs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. We find significant relationships between floods and large-scale climate variability across SSA, with climatic drivers accounting for 30–90 % of the variability in floods. Notably, western, central, and the summer-rain region of southern Africa display stronger teleconnections to large-scale climate variability in comparison to East Africa and the winter-rain region of South Africa, where regional circulation patterns and human activities may play a more important role. In southern and eastern Africa, floods are mainly influenced by teleconnections with the Pacific and Indian Oceans, while in western and central Africa, teleconnections with the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea play a larger role. We also find that the number of floods is projected to fluctuate by ± 10–50 % during the 21st century in response to different sequences of key modes of climate variability. We also note that the relative contributions of large-scale climate variability to future flood risks are generally consistent across all SMILEs. Our findings thus provide valuable information for long-term disaster risk reduction and management.

Mechanisms of spring freshet generation in southern Quebec, Canada

Seasonal forecasting of spring floods in snow-covered basins is challenging due to the ambiguity in the driving processes, uncertain estimations of antecedent catchment conditions, and the choice of predictor variables. In this study, we attempt to improve the prediction of spring flow peaks in southern Quebec, Canada, by studying the preconditioning mechanisms of runoff generation and their impact on inter-annual variations in the timing and magnitude of spring peak flow. Historical observations and simulated data from a hydrological and snowmelt model were used to study the antecedent conditions that control flood characteristics in 12 unregulated snow-dominated catchments. Maximum snow accumulation (peak SWE), snowmelt and rainfall volume and intensity, soil moisture, river baseflow, and the air freezing index, a proxy for soil freezing, were estimated during the pre-flood period. Stepwise multiple linear regression was used to identify the most relevant predictors and assess their relative contribution to interannual variability flood variability. Peak SWE was not by itself a strong predictor of spring flood magnitude and timing. The snowmelt rate during the pre-flood period was the most ubiquitous and skillful predictor of spring flood magnitude, followed by the rainfall intensity. The ‘soil memory’ effect, represented here by the simulated soil moisture content and freezing depth, was generally poorly related to flood characteristics. SWE and snowmelt dynamics dominated the interannual variability of flood magnitude in the southern and agricultural basins while rainfall intensity had a stronger influence in the northern, snowier forested basins. More complex machine learning models (random forest and support vector regression) did not perform better than the simple linear models to predict peakflow from antecedent hydroclimatic factors. These results highlight the impact of climate and land cover and use on spring flood generation mechanism and the moderate predictability potential of spring floods based on antecedent hydrological factors.

Climatic pacing of extreme Nile floods during the North African Humid Period

Understanding how large river systems will respond to an invigorated hydrological cycle as simulated under higher global temperatures is a pressing issue. Insights can be gained from studying past wetter-than-present intervals, such as the North African Humid Period during the early Holocene Epoch (~11–6 thousand years ago). Here we present a 1,500-year-long annually laminated (varved) offshore sediment record that tracks the seasonal discharge of the Nile River during the North African Humid Period. The record reveals mobilization of large amounts of sediments during strong summer floods that may have rendered the Nile valley uninhabitable. More frequent and rapid transitions between extremely strong and weak floods between 9.2 and 8.6 thousand years ago indicate highly instable fluvial dynamics. Climate simulations suggest flood variability was paced by El Niño/Southern Oscillation on interannual timescales, while multi-decadal oscillatory modes drove changes in extreme flood events. These pacemakers have also been identified in the Nile flow records from the Common Era, which implies their stationarity under contrasting hydroclimatic conditions.

Nonstationary multi-site design flood estimation and application to design flood regional composition analysis

Impacts of climate change and human activities may lead to changes in the spatiotemporal composition of the design flood as well as its size. Previous studies mainly focused on changes in design flood size, while there has been relatively little research on changes in its regional composition. In this study, a nonstationary multi-site design flood estimation method is developed, which is useful for the design flood regional composition analysis under nonstationary conditions. Dynamic copula models are first constructed to analyze the change in the joint distribution of the nonstationary multi-site flood variables with the consideration of the nonstationarity of the marginal distribution and copula structure parameters. Then the design flood combinations in multi-site for a specified design standard are calculated by comprehensively applying the equivalent reliability method, the expectation conditional and the most-likely conditional combination strategies, which considers the future precipitation change and design lifespan length impacts on the design flood. Finally, the uncertainty of the multi-site design flood estimation caused by the model parameters uncertainty is evaluated. A case study, based on the annual maximum 7-day (AM7) flood volume in the Yichang (YC) and Cuntan (CT) sites, is conducted to illustrate this method. Results show that flood quantiles in the YC and CT sites exhibit an increasing trend as the precipitation projections will increase in the future, but the flood quantiles in the YC site are less compared to the historical period because of the huge regulation and storage effect of the Three Gorges Reservoir. In addition, the design flood combination in the CT and YC sites are calculated and the CT design floods from the expectation combination strategy are bigger than those provided by the most-likely combination strategy.

A novel voting ensemble model empowered by metaheuristic feature selection for accurate flash flood susceptibility mapping

This study addresses the challenges of flash flood susceptibility mapping in Yemen’s Qaa’Jahran Basin, characterized by complex terrain and limited hydro-meteorological data. To enhance predictive accuracy, we integrate metaheuristic feature selection with ensemble learning models. Initially, fifteen flash flood variables were retrieved using Geographic Information System (GIS) based remote sensing, setting the stage for a novel feature selection algorithm. Then, the Memo Search Algorithm (MSA), a metaheuristic approach is proposed to efficiently reduce feature space. Through comprehensive comparisons with established algorithms such as the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO), MSA refined the selection, identifying 'elevation’ and 'distance to streams’ as optimal factors. Statistical validations using the Friedman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests confirmed the significant superiority of MSA over competing algorithms. Ensemble classifiers (bagging, boosting, stacking) were then applied to the reduced feature space. Comprehensive evaluation revealed the boosting ensemble with MSA outperformed traditional techniques reaching 98.75% accuracy, 0.9896 Area Under the Curve (AUC), and 98.95% the harmonic mean of the precision and recall (F1-score). Precision in identifying high-risk flash flood zones was underlined via spatial prediction, confirming the integrated framework’s ability to significantly improve forecast accuracy. The findings aid disaster management with powerful geographic mapping in data-poor regions. The proposed framework is adaptable globally for flash flood-prone areas with similar constraints. As climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall events, communities globally will need robust data-driven methodologies for flash flood susceptibility mapping. The Key recommendations of the current study include investigating hybrid feature selection methods to better enhance predictive inputs and analyzing transferability across hydro-climatic zones.

Relative contributions of main factors to water levels in Wuchengxiyu Region, China

The rapid urbanization and frequent occurrence of extreme weather have made flooding more frequent; tide-sensitive areas are more prone to flooding due to tide level. However, the extent of their respective impacts on flood variability in the context of the combined effects remains to be explored. Therefore, analysis of the driveability of the water level is important for regional flood control. Land use data from 1985 to 2015 was used in this study to analyze the characteristics of the changes. General trends, abrupt variability, and persistence of rainfall, tide, and water level data from 1957 to 2018 were analyzed. The influence of rainfall, tide level factors and underlying surface on water level variation was analyzed qualitatively and the contribution of the three factors to water level variation was quantified. The results indicate that the most important directions of land-type transformation were the construction land and arable land. Within the rainfall sequence, only the 3d rainfall sequence exhibited a significant increasing trend, while both tide level and water levels showed significant increasing trends. The 3d rainfall sequence and tide level sequence are significantly positively correlated with water level sequences, whereas among the underlying surface factors, only construction land and unused land are significantly positively correlated with water levels. Furthermore, the contribution rates of driving factors vary across different regions. In the Changzhou region, the underlying surface factors dominated with a relative influence of 62%., whereas for other regions, the combined relative influences of rainfall and tide level are 57.2%, 52.8%, 60.4%, and 66.9%, The methods and results of this study contribute to regional flood regulation.

Analyzing urban form influence on pluvial flooding via numerical experiments using random slices of actual city data

Diversified urban forms resulting from urbanization is a pivotal factor influencing urban pluvial flooding. A systematic analysis of the influence of urban forms on the surface flow of urban pluvial flooding was conducted. We obtained 1,000 sets of 1 km × 1 km urban form data that met quality control requirements using a random slicing method, based on actual urban underlying surface data, with nine spatial characteristic parameters used to tabulate the urban forms. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model was employed to simulate the surface flow of the urban flood inundation. Scenario simulations and analyses were conducted for three slopes (1, 2, and 3 %) and three rainfall scenarios (with return periods of 5, 20, and 100 yr). The results showcased that, in different scenarios, the urban forms had some impact on urban flow variables and their processes, although the impact patterns were relatively complex. Regarding the process of urban flow variables, the urban forms affected the rate of decline in flood variables during the descending stage. The correlation analysis highlighted that road density, road area proportion, spread contact among various patch types, and uniformity across patches have important impacts on the maximum flood volume and maximum inundated area. The research results could help deepen our understanding of the formation mechanisms of urban pluvial flooding, flood-sensitive urban design, and flood risk management.

Landscape-wide pulse events predict trait-based responses among wetland birds in perennial channels of a dryland wetland.

Wetlands in arid or semiarid zones are vital for maintaining biodiversity but face growing threats. Flooding regime variability is a key driver of ecological dynamism in these systems, dictating primary productivity on a large spatial scale. The functional composition or diversity of wetland-dependent bird species has been found to be sensitive to fluctuations in hydrological regimes and can thus be indicative of cascading ecosystem responses associated with climate change. In this paper, we investigate whether large-scale changes in inundation and fire-a significant additional biodiversity determinant in (semi-)arid landscapes-are reliable predictors of functional group responses of wetland-dependent birds along a perennial channel of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. We fit generalized additive models (GAMs) to 6 years of bird survey data collected along ~190-km-long annual transects and use remotely sensed landscape-level inundation estimates, as well as spatiotemporal distance to fire, to predict the responsiveness of seven trait-based functional group abundances. During the surveys, a total of 89 different wetland-dependent bird species were recorded, including 76 residents, across all years, with below-surface feeding waders consistently the most abundant functional group. Including estimated spatiotemporal variability in flooding and fire, as well as their interactions, improved model fit for all seven functional groups, explaining between 46.8% and 68.3% of variability in functional group abundances. Covariates representing longer-term variability in inundation generally performed better than shorter-term ones. For example, variability in inundation over the 5 months preceding a survey best predicted the responses of all functional groups, which also all exhibited responsiveness to the interaction between flooding and fire. We were able to interpret the responses of individual functional groups, based on the resource exploitation assumption. Overall, our results suggest that perennial waters in dryland wetlands offer functional refugia to wetland-dependent birds and highlight the indicative power of large-scale trait-based bird monitoring. Our findings demonstrate the potential utility of such a monitoring regime for dryland wetland ecosystems vulnerable to industrial-scale anthropogenic pressure and associated climate change.

Correspondence of Drought Occurrences at Multi‐Temporal Scales Between North China and Upper Hanjiang River

AbstractUsing the drought and flood grades, the historical co‐drought probabilities of the water source area (i.e., the Upper Hanjiang River or UH) and the receiving area (i.e., North China or NC) of the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion project from 1470 to 2017 were analyzed. It was found that there is relatively high possibility for co‐droughts to occur in the UH and NC at interannual to multi‐decadal time scales. When extreme drought occurred in NC, there was a 52% probability that the UH was on the drier side and even a 40% probability of severe drought. During the three typical severe drought events that occurred mainly in NC (i.e., 1637–1643, 1877–1878, and 1997–2002), severe droughts also appeared in the UH, with 1877–1878 even more severe than in NC. Among the seven driest years of the study period in NC (i.e., 1640, 1641, 1832, 1920, 1965, 1968, and 1997), only 1832 was wet in the UH, and 1920 even experienced the same severe region‐wide drought as NC did. Furthermore, when severe consecutive droughts occurred in NC, there was at least a 66% probability that the UH was also experiencing a drought. In addition, there were obvious cycles of drought and flood variability of around 3–6 years, 10 years, 30 years, and 55–80 years in both the UH and NC. These findings are of importance to in‐depth understanding of the regional drought variability and its mechanism at varied temporal scales and the effective management of the world‐class hydro project.

Analysis of compound floods from storm surge and extreme precipitation in China

To enhance flood protection and risk reduction in China's coastal cities, it is crucial to comprehend the variability and underlying causes of compound floods along the coasts arising from storm surges and intense precipitation. The variability of compound floods from storm surge and extreme precipitation from 1958 to 2014 was analyzed using daily maximum sea level data and daily cumulative precipitation from 16 tide gauges along the coast of China. More than 70 % of the storm surges that caused damage from 1989 to 2014 at 14 out of 16 tide gauges were compound floods. We found a strong and seasonally varying dependence between storm surges and extreme precipitation along the coast of China. There were generally positive trends for the annual number of compound events at tide gauges south of 35°N. Compound flood variability was related to large-scale climate modes. The Arctic Oscillation in March was significantly negatively correlated with the compound events at tide gauges north of 35°N, while the opposite was true at tide gauges south of 35°N. The compound events were significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in June at 10 of the 16 tide gauges, and negatively correlated with the Niño1 + 2 index in February at 7 of the 16 tide gauges. Precipitation extremes determine the changes in the occurrence of compound floods, and by modifying the East Asian summer monsoon and typhoons, the large climate modes are supposed to impact the occurrence of compound floods. Our findings can enhance our understanding of compound floods and provide an important reference for flood risk management, particularly for low-lying coastal cities in China.

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo‐Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California

AbstractTo aid California's water sector to better understand and manage future climate extremes, we present a method for creating a regionally consistent ensemble of plausible daily future climate and streamflow scenarios that represent natural climate variability captured in a network of tree‐ring chronologies, and then embed anthropogenic climate change trends within those scenarios. We use 600 years of paleo‐reconstructed weather regimes to force a stochastic weather generator, which we develop for five subbasins in the San Joaquin Valley of California. To assess the compound effects of climate change, we create temperature series that reflect projected scenarios of warming and precipitation series that have been scaled to reflect thermodynamically driven shifts in the distribution of daily precipitation. We then use these weather scenarios to force hydrologic models for each of the five subbasins. The paleo‐forced streamflow scenarios highlight periods in the region's past that produce flood and drought extremes that surpass those in the modern record and exhibit large non‐stationarity through the reconstruction. Variance decomposition is employed to characterize the contribution of natural variability and climate change to variability in decision‐relevant metrics related to floods and drought. Our results show that a large portion of variability in individual subbasin and spatially compounding extreme events can be attributed to natural variability, but that anthropogenic climate changes become more influential at longer planning horizons. The joint importance of climate change and natural variability in shaping extreme floods and droughts is critical to resilient water systems planning and management in the San Joaquin.

WHAT DRIVES EXTREME EVENTS? EVALUATING THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO TOTAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST

The combination of waves, tides, and non-tidal residuals determines the magnitude of total water levels (TWLs) at the coast. As the magnitude of extreme TWLs dictates flooding and erosion potential, understanding the relative contribution of individual processes to these events can provide insights into how changes to the wave climate, sea level, and storminess may affect extreme TWLs now and in the future. Here we evaluate the relative contribution of hydrodynamic processes to extreme TWL events to better understand the spatiotemporal variability of coastal flooding and erosion drivers along the Atlantic coast of the United States (U.S.).

An integrated modeling approach to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions of flood mitigation across a small watershed in the southeast United States

Abstract. Floods are among the most destructive natural hazards in the world, posing numerous risks to societies and economies globally. Accurately understanding and modeling floods driven by extreme rainfall events has long been a challenging task in the domains of hydrologic science and engineering. Unusual catchment responses to flooding cause great difficulty in predicting the variability and magnitude of floods, as well as proposing solutions to manage large volumes of overland flow. The usage of nature-based solutions (NBSs) has proved to be effective in the mitigation of flood peak rate and volume in urban or coastal areas, yet it is still not widely implemented due to limited knowledge and testing compared to traditional engineering solutions. This research examined an integrated hydrological and hydraulic modeling system to understand the response of an at-risk watershed system to flooding and evaluate the efficacy of NBS measures. Using the Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System and River Analysis System (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) software, an integrated hydrologic–hydraulic model was developed for Hurricane Matthew- (2016) and Florence-driven (2018) floods across the Little Pee Dee–Lumber River watershed, North and South Carolina (the Carolinas), US. The focus was on Nichols, a small town that has disproportionately been impacted by flooding during these two hurricane events. The present article proposes a methodology for selecting, modeling, and evaluating the performance of NBS measures within a catchment, which can be extended to other case studies. Different NBS measures, including flood storage ponds, riparian reforestation, and afforestation in croplands, were designed, modeled, and evaluated. Hurricane Matthew's flooding event was used for evaluating the NBS scenarios given its high simulation accuracy in flood inundation compared to the less accurate results obtained for Hurricane Florence. The scenario comparison evidenced that large-scale natural interventions, such as afforestation in croplands, can reduce the inundated area in Nichols by 8 % to 18 %. On the contrary, the smaller-scale interventions such as riparian reforestation and flood storage ponds showed a negligible effect of only 1 % on flood mitigation.

Variations of Runoff-Sediment Processes at Flood Event Scale at a Typical Catchment in the Loess Plateau of China

The flood season is the main period for runoff and sediment yield, and understanding the variations of runoff and sediment of flood events is of great significance for distinguishing the runoff-sediment processes in the Loess Plateau. In this study, we analyzed the variations of runoff and sediment at the flood event scale in the Qiaogou catchment and investigated the influencing factors. The results showed that runoff and sediment of flood events were mainly produced by rainfall with short rainfall duration and heavy rainfall intensity in the study area. Based on the 28 flood events and corresponding precipitation data from the reference period (P-I, 1986–1989) and the revegetation period (P-II, 2001–2009), we analyzed the variations of runoff-sediment processes at the flood event scale in the Qiaogou catchment, a typical catchment of the Loess Plateau. The results showed that the flood variables were lower in the revegetation period than those in the reference period, except for the flood peak discharge time and the flood duration. The sediment transport capacity per unit runoff depth in the revegetation period was weaker than that in the reference period. The hysteresis analysis indicated that the patterns of the hysteretic loop were dominated by the figure-of-eight pattern and the compound pattern, respectively, in the reference period and revegetation period. Compared to the reference period, runoff and sediment-related variables for flood events of counter-clockwise, figure-of-eight, and compound patterns were less in the revegetation period. With similar rainfall conditions, the main reason for the noticeable difference in runoff and sediment of flood events for the two periods was the variations in vegetation cover. The mentioned results indicated that revegetation performed a critical function in the variations of runoff and sediment at the flood event scale. This study revealed the variations of runoff-sediment processes of flood events and their responses to rainfall and revegetation in a typical catchment of the Loess Plateau, which can provide a basis for decision-making on soil erosion management and sustainable development of the ecological environment in the Loess Plateau.

Hydrological change in southern Australia over 1750 years: a bivalve oxygen isotope record from the Coorong Lagoon

Abstract. Multi-centennial records of past hydroclimate change are essential for understanding the resilience of ecosystems to climatic events in addition to guiding conservation and restoration efforts. Such data are also crucial for examining the long-term controls over regional hydroclimate and the inherent variability in extreme droughts and floods. Here, we present a 1750-year record of hydroclimate variability in the Coorong South Lagoon, South Australia, part of an internationally significant wetland system at the mouth of Australia's largest river, the Murray River. Oxygen isotope ratios were measured from Arthritica helmsi bivalve shells preserved in sediments. The oxygen isotope record shows periods of persistent low and high moisture balance, from ∼500 to 1050 years and from ∼1300 to 1800 years, respectively, which is consistent with other hydroclimate reconstructions from the region. The range of oxygen isotope values in the sedimentary shells does not differ significantly from the estimated range of modern specimens from the present-day lagoon. These data suggest that the restricted and highly evaporated modern-day conditions are not markedly different to the pre-impacted state over the last 1750 years, although the absence of A. helmsi in the contemporary lagoon is likely a response to increased salinity, nutrient loading, and anoxia during the last century. These insights are potentially useful both in guiding management efforts to conserve and restore the Coorong Lagoon and for understanding long-term water resource availability in the region.