Variability Of Wind Conditions Research Articles

Constrained optimization of offshore wind turbine positions under uncertain wind conditions with correlated data

Offshore wind power production is subject to substantial uncertainty due to variability in wind conditions. Planning of new wind parks should take these uncertainties into account by means of stochastic modeling and uncertainty quantification. Wind speed and wind direction exhibit dependence that needs to be properly modeled to yield reliable uncertainty estimates. In particular, the dependence is strong when data are averaged over a short time-horizon, e.g., on a monthly rather than an annual basis. In this work we introduce a stochastic model for wind speed and wind direction using Rosenblatt transformation and an empirical model. This allows efficient numerical quadrature that replaces thousands of Monte Carlos samples by a few tens of model evaluations at quadrature points in parametric space. A robust design formulation for maximizing power production honoring dependent data is proposed and demonstrated on data from the North Sea site Sørlige Nordsjø II.

Forecasting sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds at the ports in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea

Increasing the draught of ships that may be accepted by ports for loading at their loading berths is one of the main tasks aimed at development and freight turnover enhancement of sea trade ports located in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea (cities of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Pivdennyi). An operational forecasting of short-term sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds presents a critical task for ensuring safe navigation across the ports’ water area and approach channels. The article is devoted to analysing and discussing the results of tests of a simplified 2D hydrodynamic model designed for forecasting such phenomena as upsurge and downsurge of the sea level caused by storm winds in the vicinity of sea ports in Odesa Region of the north-western part of the Black Sea. Spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions at the sea-to-atmosphere boundary was set based on the data retrieved from a 10-day synoptic forecast using global atmospheric prediction model GFS (Global Forecast System). The study analyses the results of forecast of significant (the ones exceeding 30 cm) short-term sea level drops and rises at the ports which were observed in 2016, 2017 and 2020.
 It was established that, in case of use of the GFS forecast data, the pattern of sea level denivellations caused by storm winds and their amplitude in the majority of events start approximating to the observed values provided the forecast has a 4-day lead time. Therefore the accuracy of wind conditions variability forecast with application of the GFS model having a longer lead advance time is not sufficient for forecasting the sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds. The study made it possible to get an acceptable equivalence between the values of sea level denivellation amplitudes which were forecast with a 1-to-3-day lead time and the ones observed afterwards. In particular, when the forecast lead time is equal to »2 days, in relation to the expected storm conditions, the average absolute error for the forecast of sea level fluctuations amplitude constituted 7-8 cm, while its permissible value was defined as 15 cm, and the average relative error – 16-18%. It allowed making a conclusion that a hydrodynamic model option, applied alongside with the forecasting information on wind conditions variability retrieved with the help of the GFS weather prediction model, may be used for operational forecasting of short-term sea level fluctuations caused by storm winds with the forecast lead time of up to 4 days.

Simulation modelling of wind-induced sea level fluctuations at the ports of the Odesa Region in the North-Western part of the Black Sea

The paper is devoted to discussion of the prospects of simplified 2D hydrodynamic model use aimed at forecasting the wind-induced sea level fluctuations within the area of sea ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi) of the Odesa Region in the North-Western part of the Black Sea. Spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions at the sea-atmosphere division is specified based on the data of the global numerical weather prediction model of the Global Forecast System (GFS). The research includes the description of the mathematical structure of the hydrodynamic model and the results of its adaptation to the conditions of the simulated sea area. It presents the results of model verification in the version which implies adoption of wind data from the archives of GFS-analysis and GFS-forecasts for 2010, 2016 and 2017. The verification was performed by comparing wind-induced denivellations of the sea level at the ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhnyi calculated over the course of modelling and those established on the basis of observational data (with the discreteness of 6 hours). A quantitative assessment of the calculation accuracy was performed for the cases where, according to the observational data, level denivellations exceeded the value of the standard deviation for the entire series. New series of the observed and calculated model-based significant wind-induced denivellations of sea level were formed for each of the ports from the sets of samples that met this condition. Using these series estimates of the mean square error of the calculations, allowable error of calculations, correlation coefficient between the actual and calculated values of the level denivellations, the probability of the calculation method under the allowable error were obtained. It was established that in the case of use of the data from wind GFS-analysis (with spatial resolution of 0.5° both latitudinally and longitudinally) over the course of modelling the probability of calculation of significant sea level denivellation constitutes 84-85%, and in case of using the data from the GFS-archive of wind forecasts (with spatial resolution of 0.25°) – 88-91%. This allowed making a conclusion that the model has good prospects of use for operational forecast of the sea level fluctuations caused by storm wind in the version implying assimilation of the predicted information on the spatio-temporal variability of wind conditions obtained by means of the GFS global weather forecast model.

Evaluation of the subsurface compressed air energy storage (CAES) potential on Gotland, Sweden

Wind energy is an important field of development for the island of Gotland, Sweden, especially since the island has set targets to generate 100% of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. Due to the variability of wind conditions, energy storage will be an important technology to facilitate the continued development of wind energy on Gotland and ensure a stable and secure supply of electricity. In this study, the feasibility of utilizing the Middle Cambrian Faludden sandstone reservoir on Gotland for Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) is assessed. Firstly, a characterization of the sandstone beneath Gotland is presented, which includes detailed maps of reservoir thickness and top reservoir structure. Analysis of this information shows that the properties of the Faludden sandstone and associated cap rock appear favorable for the application of CAES. Seven structural closures are identified below the eastern and southern parts of Gotland, which could potentially be utilized for CAES. Scoping estimates of the energy storage capacity and flow rate for these closures within the Faludden sandstone show that industrial scale CAES could be possible on Gotland.

Performance analysis of WRF and LES in describing the evolution and structure of the planetary boundary layer

We implemented the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and WRF Large-Eddy Simulation (WRF–LES), focusing on calculations for the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and compared the results against a data set of a well-documented campaign, in the Houston–Galveston area, Texas, in summer 2006. A methodology using WRF in a mesoscale and LES was implemented to assess the performance of the model in simulating the evolution and structure of the PBL over Houston during the Vertical Mixing Experiment. Also, the WRF model in a real case mode was examined to explore potential differences between the results of each simulation approach. We analyzed both WRF results for key meteorological parameters like wind speed, wind direction and potential temperature, and compared the model results against the observations. The reasonably good agreement of LES results forced with observed surface fluxes provides confidence that LES describes turbulence quantities such as turbulent kinetic energy correctly and warrants further turbulence structure analysis. The LES results indicate a weak but noticeable nighttime turbulent kinetic energy which was produced by wind shear in Houston’s planetary boundary layer and which may likely be related to intermittent turbulence. This is supported by observations made at the University of Houston Moody Tower air quality station when intermittent peaks of carbon monoxide occurred in the evening, although the variability in wind conditions was very little.

Evaluation of Watershed-Scale Simulations of In-Stream Pesticide Concentrations from Off-Target Spray Drift.

The estimation of pesticide concentrations in surface water bodies is a critical component of the environmental risk assessment process required by regulatory agencies in North America, the European Union, and elsewhere. Pesticide transport to surface waters via deposition from off-field spray drift can be an important route of potential contamination. The spatial orientation of treated fields relative to receiving water bodies make prediction of off-target pesticide spray drift deposition and resulting aquatic estimated environmental concentrations (EECs) challenging at the watershed scale. The variability in wind conditions further complicates the simulation of the environmental processes leading to pesticide spray drift contributions to surface water. This study investigates the use of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for predicting concentrations of malathion (O,O-deimethyl thiophosphate of diethyl mercaptosuccinate) in a flowing water body when exposure is a result of off-target spray drift, and assesses the model's performance using a parameterization typical of a screening-level regulatory assessment. Six SWAT parameterizations, each including incrementally more site-specific data, are then evaluated to quantify changes in model performance. Results indicate that the SWAT model is an appropriate tool for simulating watershed scale concentrations of pesticides resulting from off-target spray drift deposition. The model predictions are significantly more accurate when the inputs and assumptions accurately reflect application practices and environmental conditions. Inclusion of detailed wind data had the most significant impact on improving model-predicted EECs in comparison to observed concentrations.

Comparison of hidden and observed regime-switching autoregressive models for (<i>u</i>, <i>v</i>)-components of wind fields in the northeastern Atlantic

Abstract. Several multi-site stochastic generators of zonal and meridional components of wind are proposed in this paper. A regime-switching framework is introduced to account for the alternation of intensity and variability that is observed in wind conditions due to the existence of different weather types. This modeling blocks time series into periods in which the series is described by a single model. The regime-switching is modeled by a discrete variable that can be introduced as a latent (or hidden) variable or as an observed variable. In the latter case a clustering algorithm is used before fitting the model to extract the regime. Conditional on the regimes, the observed wind conditions are assumed to evolve as a linear Gaussian vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Various questions are explored, such as the modeling of the regime in a multi-site context, the extraction of relevant clusterings from extra variables or from the local wind data, and the link between weather types extracted from wind data and large-scale weather regimes derived from a descriptor of the atmospheric circulation. We also discuss the relative advantages of hidden and observed regime-switching models. For artificial stochastic generation of wind sequences, we show that the proposed models reproduce the average space–time motions of wind conditions, and we highlight the advantage of regime-switching models in reproducing the alternation of intensity and variability in wind conditions.

Tumbling under the surf: wave-modulated settlement of intertidal mussels and the continuous settlement-relocation model

For many mussel species, the model of planktonic development followed by meta- morphosis and settlement in the benthic habitat is complicated by the existence of planktonic post-metamorphic stages and/or pediveliger benthic stages that can relocate after initial settle- ment. This has led to the long-standing hypothesis of 'primary' settlement from the plankton onto intertidal algal substrate followed by 'secondary' relocation to mussel beds. Here, we investigate settlement of the intertidal mussels Perumytilus purpuratus and Semimytilus algosus in central Chile to test this hypothesis and explore physical drivers. Our results indicate that: (1) these spe- cies do not have planktonic post-metamorphic stages, (2) larvae typically arrive to the intertidal zone at a size 80-150 µm larger than the largest planktonic larva, which based on growth rates, corresponds to a 3-20 d delay, (3) there are no differences in pediveliger sizes between different algal substrates, mussel beds, or artificial collectors, and (4) there is no evidence that larvae meta- morphose in the intertidal and grow in alternative habitat before relocation to mussel beds. In 2 summers, daily settlement of both species was tightly and positively associated with wave height, despite large inter-annual variability in wind conditions. Our results reject the primary-secondary settlement hypothesis and support a new settlement model in which, after metamorphosis beyond the surf zone, the negatively buoyant settlers become semi-benthic and readily sink to the bottom. There, they can be transported onshore through the surf-zone by wave-driven near-bed transport. The process of tumbling under the surf may take from a few hours to several days, with larvae arriving at the shoreline in a wide range of sizes at any given time. For some larvae, relocation continues in the intertidal zone for months.

Statistical analysis of hydrometeorological characteristics in extreme winters in the northeastern part of the Black Sea

Analyzed are the similarities and differences in the processes of intraseasonal variability of wind conditions in extremely cold and extremely warm real winter seasons 1953/54 and 1965/66. Revealed is the significance of the contribution of calm pauses to the formation mechanism of seasonal characteristics on the whole and, to much greater degree, to the determination of the properties of weather windows. Emphasized is a role of calm pauses as the indicators of weather windows. Studies is the possibility of estimating the severity of winter conditions using a set o characteristics of initial ten-day periods of winter season within the arbitrary annual cycle.

Evolution of bed shear stress distribution over the northwest European shelf seas during the last 12,000 years

Due to changes in relative sea level of order 100 m, the contribution of tides and waves to net bed shear stress in shelf sea regions has varied considerably over the Late Glacial and Holocene. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of this ratio leads to a deeper understanding of the erosion and deposition of sediments over the shelf seas throughout this time period. Tidal and wave models are here applied to palaeo time slices of the northwest European shelf seas over the last 12,000 years. The model simulations include a series of sensitivity tests to account for the influence of interannual variability in wind conditions on the resulting bed shear stress. The results show that there has been a significant decrease over the last 12,000 years in shelf-scale mobilisation of coarse sediment. Since there was a lower magnitude of wave orbital velocity penetrating to the sea bed as a result of increasing relative sea level, this reduction in sediment mobilisation was primarily controlled by a shelf-scale decrease in wave-induced bed shear stress over the last 12,000 years. The predictions of mean and residual bed shear stress for the modelled palaeo time slices are a useful tool with which to inform site-selection and subsequent interpretation of sediment cores. In addition, the modelled reconstructions of palaeo tidal range over the shelf seas demonstrates the potential errors associated with assuming a present-day tidal range when correcting palaeo sea-level proxies from their deposited datum (e.g. palaeo mean high water spring tide) to palaeo mean sea level.