Variability In Population Parameters Research Articles

Acetaminophen pharmacokinetics in infants and children with congenital heart disease.

Acetaminophen is routinely used for perioperative analgesia in children undergoing major surgical procedures. There are few estimates of acetaminophen pharmacokinetic parameters in children with congenital heart disease, especially those with cyanotic heart disease. The current study prospectively investigated differences in acetaminophen pharmacokinetics following surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass in children with cyanotic and acyanotic congenital heart disease. Children (2-6 years, 9-23 kg) presenting for median sternotomy for Fontan palliation (cyanotic patients) or two ventricle surgical repair (acyanotic patients) were eligible for inclusion. A single intravenous dose of acetaminophen (15 mg/kg) was administered at the start of sternal closure after separation from cardiopulmonary bypass. The time-course of acetaminophen concentrations were described using non-linear mixed effects models. One and two-compartment disposition models with first-order elimination were tested. Pharmacokinetic parameter estimates were scaled using allometry and standardized to a 70 kg person. There were 208 acetaminophen concentrations assayed from 30 children, 15 with cyanotic, and 15 with acyanotic heart disease. A 2-compartment model best described acetaminophen PK. Parameter estimates (population parameter variability, PPV%; 95% confidence interval, CI) were clearance CL 15.3L.h-1.70 kg-1 (22.2%; 13.8-16.7), intercompartment clearance Q 45.4L.h-1.70 kg-1 (22.4%; 25.2-61.9), central volume of distribution V1 33.5L.70 kg-1 (23.2%; 25.9-38.8), peripheral volume of distribution V2 32.1L.70 kg-1 (21.7%; 25.9-38.8). Neither clearance nor volume parameters differed between cyanotic and acyanotic patients. Acetaminophen pharmacokinetics were characterized using a 2-compartment model with first-order elimination following cardiac bypass surgery in children. Population pharmacokinetic parameter estimates were similar to other studies in children. No differences were detected between patients with cyanotic and acyanotic heart disease.

Pharmacokinetic Pharmacodynamic Modelling Contributions to Improve Paediatric Anaesthesia Practice.

The use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models has improved anaesthesia practice in children through a better understanding of dose-concentration-response relationships, developmental pharmacokinetic changes, quantification of drug interactions and insights into how covariates (e.g., age, size, organ dysfunction, pharmacogenomics) impact drug prescription. Simulation using information from these models has enabled the prediction and learning of beneficial and adverse effects and decision-making around clinical scenarios. Covariate information, including the use of allometric size scaling, age and consideration of fat mass, has reduced population parameter variability. The target concentration approach has rationalised dose calculation. Paediatric pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic insights have led to better drug delivery systems for total intravenous anaesthesia and an expectation about drug offset when delivery is stopped. Understanding concentration-dependent adverse effects have tempered dose regimens. Quantification of drug interactions has improved the understanding of the effects of drug combinations. Repurposed drugs (e.g., antiviral drugs used for COVID-19) within the community can have important effects on drugs used in paediatric anaesthesia, and the use of simulation educates about these drug vagaries.

A Universal Pharmacokinetic Model for Dexmedetomidine in Children and Adults.

A universal pharmacokinetic model was developed from pooled paediatric and adult data (40.6 postmenstrual weeks, 70.8 years, 3.1–152 kg). A three-compartment pharmacokinetic model with first-order elimination was superior to a two-compartment model to describe these pooled dexmedetomidine data. Population parameter estimates (population parameter variability%) were clearance (CL) 0.9 L/min/70 kg (36); intercompartmental clearances (Q2) 1.68 L/min/70 kg (63); Q3 0.62 L/min/70 kg (90); volume of distribution in the central compartment (V1) 25.2 L/70 kg (103.9); rapidly equilibrating peripheral compartment (V2) 34.4 L/70 kg (41.8); slow equilibrating peripheral compartment (V3) 65.4 L/70 kg (62). Obesity was best described by fat-free mass for clearances and normal fat mass for volumes with a factor for fat mass (FfatV) of 0.293. Models describing dexmedetomidine pharmacokinetics in adults can be applied to children by accounting for size (allometry) and age (maturation). This universal dexmedetomidine model is applicable to a broad range of ages and weights: neonates through to obese adults. Lean body weight is a better size descriptor for dexmedetomidine clearance than total body weight. This parameter set could be programmed into target-controlled infusion pumps for use in a broad population.

Population pharmacokinetics of orally administered mefloquine in healthy volunteers and patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

The determination of dosing regimens for the treatment of malaria is largely empirical and thus a better understanding of the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties of antimalarial agents is required to assess the adequacy of current treatment regimens and identify sources of suboptimal dosing that could select for drug-resistant parasites. Mefloquine is a widely used antimalarial, commonly given in combination with artesunate. Mefloquine pharmacokinetics was assessed in 24 healthy adults and 43 patients with Plasmodium falciparum malaria administered mefloquine in combination with artesunate. Population pharmacokinetic modelling was conducted using NONMEM. A two-compartment model with a single transit compartment and first-order elimination from the central compartment most adequately described mefloquine concentration-time data. The model incorporated population parameter variability for clearance (CL/F), central volume of distribution (VC/F) and absorption rate constant (KA) and identified, in addition to body weight, malaria infection as a covariate for VC/F (but not CL/F). Monte Carlo simulations predict that falciparum malaria infection is associated with a shorter elimination half-life (407 versus 566 h) and T>MIC (766 versus 893 h). This is the first known population pharmacokinetic study to show falciparum malaria to influence mefloquine disposition. Protein binding, anaemia and other factors may contribute to differences between healthy individuals and patients. As VC/F is related to the earlier portion of the concentration-time profiles, which occurs during acute malaria, and CL/F is more related to the terminal phase during convalescence after treatment, this may explain why malaria was found to be a covariate for VC/F but not CL/F.

Development of an optimal sampling schedule for children receiving ketamine for short-term procedural sedation and analgesia.

Intravenous racemic ketamine is commonly administered for procedural sedation, although few pharmacokinetic studies have been conducted among children. Moreover, an optimal sampling schedule has not been derived to enable the conduct of pharmacokinetic studies that minimally inconvenience study participants. Concentration-time data were obtained from 57 children who received 1-1.5 mg·kg(-1) of racemic ketamine as an intravenous bolus. A population pharmacokinetic analysis was conducted using nonlinear mixed effects models, and the results were used as inputs to develop a D-optimal sampling schedule. The pharmacokinetics of ketamine were described using a two-compartment model. The volume of distribution in the central and peripheral compartments were 20.5 l∙70 kg(-1) and 220 l∙70 kg(-1), respectively. The intercompartmental clearance and total body clearance were 87.3 and 87.9 l·h(-1) ∙70 kg(-1), respectively. Population parameter variability ranged from 34% to 98%. Initially, blood samples were drawn on 3-6 occasions spanning a range of 14-152 min after dosing. Using these data, we determined that four optimal sampling windows occur at 1-5, 5.5-7.5, 10-20, and 90-180 min after dosing. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that these sampling windows produced precise and unbiased ketamine pharmacokinetic parameter estimates. An optimal sampling schedule was developed that allowed assessment of the pharmacokinetic parameters of ketamine among children requiring short-term procedural sedation.

Population Pharmacokinetics of High-Dose Carboplatin in Children and Adults

Although for conventional dosing of carboplatin, several strategies are available to individualize the dose based on renal function measurements, such approaches are still rare for high-dose regimens with autologous stem cell support. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of patient- and regimen-specific factors on the pharmacokinetics of carboplatin and to compare the performance of different dose individualization strategies (Calvert, Newell, Chatelut, flat dosing, dosing according to body surface area). A combined data set with 69 patients from five studies, including 13 pediatric patients, was subject to a population pharmacokinetic analysis using NONMEM. The covariate analysis revealed that carboplatin clearance after high-dose chemotherapy was highly related to creatinine clearance, body height, and infusion duration. After inclusion of these covariates, the population parameter variability of clearance decreased from 53% in the base model to 21% in the final model. We also developed an alternative model that related body weight, instead of height, to clearance by means of allometric scaling. An evaluation of the predictive performance of existing a priori dose individualization strategies revealed that flat dosing is appropriate for adult patients with normal renal function receiving a 1-hour infusion. For a long-term infusion schedule, a dose increase may be necessary. The existing dosing strategies performed poorly for the children in our data set. For this subpopulation, our allometric scaling model may be most appropriate. The two population pharmacokinetic models presented can be applied to estimate individual carboplatin clearance in high-dose chemotherapy based on body weight or height, infusion duration, and creatinine clearance. After prospective evaluation, our models may be suitable for dose adjustments.

Population dynamics of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui at two spatial and temporal scales in northern Spain

This study describes spatial and temporal patterns of variability in population parameters in the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward in three localities of northern Spain and evaluates whether density-dependent settlement may regulate population dynamics. The sampling design considered two spatial scales, localities and sites within localities, and two temporal scales, years and six month intervals. Density, amount of free space, mortality, growth rate and magnitude of settlement (both absolute and per unit of free space) were obtained from photographs of permanent quadrats and from direct counts in the field. The number of settlers in scraped and untouched quadrats was used to estimate the importance of the presence of conspecifics in settlement. Significant variation at the two spatial and temporal scales was found for most parameters. Large spatial and temporal variations in adult mortality rate, density, and settlement were observed. Patterns of mortality were not consistent with differences in density among localities. Differences in settlement among localities were maintained through time. We suggest that magnitude of settlement is regulated by persistent features such as topography or local water circulation. We assume that early post-settlement mortality does not differ among localities. In the absence of differential mortality, settlement determines average population density within localities. Within localities, settlement was independent of density and free space. No consistent evidence was found on preferential settlement at the vicinity of conspecifics. The main conclusion is that density-dependent settlement is not relevant for the regulation of the populations of C. montagui in the northern Spain. Regulation might occur by density-dependent processes within the adult fraction of the population and/or the larval phase before settlement.

Vancomycin pharmacokinetics in preterm neonates and the prediction of adult clearance

*Effects of size, renal function, age (postnatal age, gestational age and postmenstrual age) as predictors of vancomycin clearance in premature neonates are established, but the relative contribution of each component remains poorly quantified, largely because these variables are closely correlated. *We have quantified the covariates contributing to vancomycin clearance population parameter variability in order to establish the major covariates required for dosing predictions. Size, standardized using allometric models, was the primary covariate used in our analysis. *Size explained 49.8%, postmenstrual age 18.2% and renal function 14.1% of clearance variability. *Descriptors of the relationship between age and clearance in premature neonates vary. *The use of a variable slope sigmoidal model to describe the relationship between clearance and postmenstrual age predicted an adult clearance of 3.79 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1) (95% confidence interval 2.76, 4.98) from premature neonatal data. To identify and quantify factors describing the variability of vancomycin clearance in premature neonates. Population pharmacokinetics were estimated (NONMEM) in 214 neonates [postmenstrual age (PMA) 30.4 weeks, range 24-34 weeks; postnatal age 11.9 days, range 1-27 days; weight 1.30 kg, range 0.42-2.6 kg] using therapeutic drug monitoring data. Covariate analysis included weight, PMA, serum creatinine, use of inotropes or ibuprofen, positive blood culture and respiratory support. A one-compartment linear disposition model with zero order input and first-order elimination was used to describe the data (604 observations). The population estimate for volume of distribution (V) was 39 l 70 kg(-1) (coefficient of variation 19.4%). Clearance (CL) increased from 0.897 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1) at 24 weeks PMA to 2.02 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1) by 34 weeks PMA. The between-subject variability for CL was 18.6% and the between-occasion variability was 12.2%. The use of ibuprofen reduced clearance, but this effect was attributable to reduced renal function. Overall, 82% of the variability of CL was predictable. Size explained 49.8%, PMA 18.2% and renal function 14.1%. The use of a variable slope sigmoidal model to describe the relationship between clearance and PMA predicted an adult clearance of 3.79 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1) (95% confidence interval 2.76, 4.98). Size, renal function and PMA are the major contributors to clearance variability in premature neonates. The small (18%) unexplained variability in clearance suggests target concentration intervention is unnecessary if size, age and renal function are used to predict the dose. Extrapolation to an adult clearance from neonatal data is possible using allometric size models and a function describing clearance maturation.

A Probabilistic Model of Glenohumeral External Rotation Strength for Healthy Normals and Rotator Cuff Tear Cases

The reigning paradigm of musculoskeletal modeling is to construct deterministic models from parameters of an "average" subject and make predictions for muscle forces and joint torques with this model. This approach is limited because it does not perform well for outliers, and it does not model the effects of population parameter variability. The purpose of this study was to simulate variability in musculoskeletal parameters on glenohumeral external rotation strength in healthy normals, and in rotator cuff tear case using a Monte Carlo model. The goal was to determine if variability in musculoskeletal parameters could quantifiably explain variability in glenohumeral external rotation strength. Multivariate Gamma distributions for musculoskeletal architecture and moment arm were constructed from empirical data. Gamma distributions of measured joint strength were constructed. Parameters were sampled from the distributions and input to the model to predict muscle forces and joint torques. The model predicted measured joint torques for healthy normals, subjects with supraspinatus tears, and subjects with infraspinatus-supraspinatus tears with small error. Muscle forces for the three conditions were predicted and compared. Variability in measured torques can be explained by differences in parameter variability.

Limited predictability of amikacin clearance in extreme premature neonates at birth

Identify and quantify factors describing variability of amikacin clearance in preterm neonates at birth. Population pharmacokinetics of amikacin were estimated in a cohort of 205 extreme preterm neonates [post conception age (PCA) 27.8, SD 1.8, range 24-30 weeks; weight 1.07, SD 0.34, range 0.45-1.98 kg, postnatal age < 72 h]. Covariate analysis included weight, PCA, Apgar score, prophylactic administration of a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) to the neonate, maternal indomethacin and betamethasone administration, and chorioamnionitis. A one-compartment linear disposition model with zero order input (0.3 h i.v. infusion) and first-order elimination was used. The population parameter estimate for volume of distribution (V) was 40.2 l per 70 kg. Clearance (CL) increased from 0.486 l h(-1) per 70 kg at 24 weeks PCA to 0.940 l h(-1) per 70 kg by 30 weeks PCA. The population parameter variability (PPV) for CL and V was 0.336 and 0.451. The use of a NSAID (either aspirin or ibuprofen) in the first day of life reduced amikacin clearance by 22%. Overall 65% of the variability of CL was predictable. Weight explained 48%, PCA 15% and NSAIDs 2%. Size and post-conception age are the major contributors to clearance variability in extreme premature neonates (<31 weeks PCA). The large (35% of total) unexplained variability in clearance reinforces the need for target concentration intervention to reduce variability in exposure to a safe and effective range.

Importance of Within Subject Variation in Levodopa Pharmacokinetics: A 4Year Cohort Study in Parkinson’s Disease

The purpose of the study was to describe the population pharmacokinetics of levodopa in patients with Parkinson's disease studied in 5 trials (10 occasions) over 4 years. Twenty previously untreated Parkinsonian patients were investigated. Each trial consisted of a 2-hr IV infusion of levodopa (1 mg/kg/h) with concomitant oral carbidopa given on two occasions separated by 72 hr with no levodopa in between. This trial design was repeated at 6, 12, 24 and 48 months. A two-compartment pharmacokinetic model with central volume (V1), peripheral volume (V2), clearance (CL) and inter-compartmental clearance (CL(ic)) was used to fit plasma levodopa concentrations. The model accounted for levodopa dosing prior to each trial and endogenous levodopa synthesis. Population parameter estimates (geometric mean) and population parameter variability (PPV; SD of normal distribution) were V1 11.4 l/70 kg (0.44), CL 30.9 l/h/70 kg (0.25), V2 27.3 l/70 kg (0.27), and CL(ic) 34.6 l/h/70 kg (0.48). PPV was partitioned into between subject variability (BSV) which was 0.12 V1, 0.13 CL, 0.15 V(2), 0.28 CL(ic), within trial variability (WTV) which was 0.16 V1, 0.13 CL, 0.08 V2, 0.18 CL(ic) and between trial variability (BTV) which was 0.40 V1, 0.17 CL, 0.21 V2, 0.34 CL(ic.) Neither structural nor random levodopa pharmacokinetic parameters were associated with the time course of development of fluctuation in motor response. Variability in levodopa pharmacokinetic parameters (particularly V1) may result in variability in plasma levodopa concentrations that could contribute to fluctuations in motor response.

Quantitative justification for target concentration intervention--parameter variability and predictive performance using population pharmacokinetic models for aminoglycosides.

[1] To quantify the random and predictable components of variability for aminoglycoside clearance and volume of distribution [2] To investigate models for predicting aminoglycoside clearance in patients with low serum creatinine concentrations [3] To evaluate the predictive performance of initial dosing strategies for achieving an aminoglycoside target concentration. Aminoglycoside demographic, dosing and concentration data were collected from 697 adult patients (> or =20 years old) as part of standard clinical care using a target concentration intervention approach for dose individualization. It was assumed that aminoglycoside clearance had a renal and a nonrenal component, with the renal component being linearly related to predicted creatinine clearance. A two compartment pharmacokinetic model best described the aminoglycoside data. The addition of weight, age, sex and serum creatinine as covariates reduced the random component of between subject variability (BSVR) in clearance (CL) from 94% to 36% of population parameter variability (PPV). The final pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for the model with the best predictive performance were: CL, 4.7 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); intercompartmental clearance (CLic), 1 l h(-1) 70 kg(-1); volume of central compartment (V1), 19.5 l 70 kg(-1); volume of peripheral compartment (V2) 11.2 l 70 kg(-1). Using a fixed dose of aminoglycoside will achieve 35% of typical patients within 80-125% of a required dose. Covariate guided predictions increase this up to 61%. However, because we have shown that random within subject variability (WSVR) in clearance is less than safe and effective variability (SEV), target concentration intervention can potentially achieve safe and effective doses in 90% of patients.

Population dynamics of the intertidal barnacle Semibalanus balanoides at three European locations: spatial scales of variability

Spatial variability in the population dynamics of the intertidal acorn barnacle Semibal- anus balanoides was investigated using a hierarchical sampling programme. Variability in a number of population parameters (size distribution, density, % cover, absolute growth and instantaneous mortality) was determined separately for new recruits and adults over 3 spatial scales. Three loca- tions, SW Ireland, the Isle of Man and the west coast of Sweden, which cover a large part of the Euro- pean range of this species, were selected to investigate variability over a large spatial scale (100s of kilometres). Two smaller scales, shore (1000s of metres) and site (10s of metres) nested within each location were also used. In addition, temporal variation over two 6 mo periods was also examined in the Isle of Man and Ireland. Most variability for all population parameters occurred over the largest spatial scale (location). This was a direct result of differences between Sweden and the other 2 loca- tions, the Isle of Man and Ireland, which showed highly similar levels of all population parameters. The population of S. balanoides at the Swedish location was characterised by high growth rates, large size, high levels of mortality and a large turnover of bare space. At the spatial scale 'shore', only 1 population parameter, the growth rate of recruits, showed variability. At the smallest scale of 'site', all parameters showed significant variability except growth rate of adults. Calculation of variance com- ponents showed that differences between replicates (spatial scale: <0.5 m) accounted for little of the overall variability, in general less than the scales of site and shore. Examination of temporal variabil- ity over two 6 mo periods revealed no difference between time periods and no significant interaction between temporal and spatial scales. Thus, there was consistency of spatial variability over time. The potential causes of variability in population parameters of S. balanoides at different spatial scales and the implications for future studies are discussed.

Separable Virtual Population Analysis of Pacific Salmon with Application to Marked Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, from California's Central Valley

A separable virtual population analysis model is developed for Pacific salmon which utilizes aged catch and spawning escapement data. This model is applied to marked chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, from California's Central Valley hatcheries using weighted least squares criteria for goodness of fit. Structural inadequacies of the model apparently produce discrepancies between predicted values and observed data that are of about the same magnitude as the observational errors in estimating the recoveries of marked fish. Some of the inadequacy of the model may be due to environmentally induced variability in population parameters, but for the marked fish used in this analysis, some of the variability is probably due to year-to-year variability in hatchery practices. From this analysis it appears that although nominal fishing effort has been relatively stable or even declining in recent years, fishing mortality has been increasing with the exception of 1983 and 1984.

Life-history strategies of optimal foragers

The optimal life histories are examined for models in which the average life-history strategy adopted by the population affects the costs and benefits of any individual's strategy. The situation modeled is one in which organisms can gain energy to be used in reproduction by foraging, but in doing so, they expose themselves to increased mortality; thus the proportion of time spent foraging can be used to measure reproductive effort. Simple models of a demographically homogeneous population are used to reexamine questions which have been studied previously using other models. The effects upon optimal reproductive effort of the following factors are examined: increased births per unit effort, increased mortality, and variability in population parameters. In addition, the questions of whether optimal reproductive effort maximizes population size and whether there can be multiple alternative life histories are examined. Results in most cases differ significantly from those of previous studies. No generalizations emerge regarding the effects of the three factors listed above. Optimal life histories in this model generally do not maximize population size. It is possible to have globally stable alternative life histories. It is concluded that frequency dependence will often be important in determining optimal life histories.