Value Of Perfect Information Analysis Research Articles

Estimating the value of future research into thromboprophylaxis for women during pregnancy and after delivery: a value of information analysis

BackgroundRisk assessment models (RAMs) are used to select women at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) during pregnancy and the puerperium for thromboprophylaxis. ObjectivesTo estimate the value of potential future studies that would reduce the decision uncertainty associated with offering thromboprophylaxis according to available RAMs in the following groups: high-risk antepartum women (eg, prior VTE), unselected postpartum women, and postpartum women with risk factors (obesity or cesarean delivery). MethodsA decision-analytic model was developed to simulate clinical outcomes, lifetime costs, and quality-adjusted life-years for different thromboprophylaxis strategies, including thromboprophylaxis for all, thromboprophylaxis for none, and RAM-based thromboprophylaxis. The expected value of perfect information analysis was used to determine which factors are associated with high decision uncertainty. The value of future research studies was estimated using expected value of sample information analysis. Costs were assessed from a health and social services perspective. ResultsThe expected value of perfect information analysis identified high decision uncertainty for high-risk antepartum women (£21.8 million) and obese postpartum women (£13.4 million), which was largely attributable to uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of thromboprophylaxis in reducing VTE. A randomized controlled trial of thromboprophylaxis compared with none in obese postpartum women is likely to have substantial value (£2.8 million; 300 participants per arm). A trial in women with previous VTE would have higher value but would be less acceptable. ConclusionFuture research should focus on estimating the effectiveness of thromboprophylaxis in obese postpartum women with additional risk factors who have not had a previous VTE.

Cost-utility analysis of 4% tetrasodium ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, taurolidine, and heparin lock to prevent central line-associated bloodstream infections in children with intestinal failure.

Central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSI) are a serious complication in children with intestinal failure. This study assessed the incremental costs of 4% tetrasodium ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) compared with taurolidine lock and heparin lock per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained in children with intestinal failure from the healthcare payer and societal perspective. A Markov cohort model of a 1-year-old child with intestinal failure was simulated until the age of 17 years (time horizon), with a cycle length of 1 month. The health outcome measure was QALYs, with results expressed in terms of incremental costs and QALYs. Model parameters were obtained from published literature and institutional data. Deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario sensitivity analyses were performed. 4% Tetrasodium EDTA was dominant (more effective and less expensive) compared with taurolidine and heparin, yielding an additional 0.17 QALYs with savings of CAD$88,277 compared with heparin, and an additional 0.06 QALYs with savings of CAD$52,120 compared with taurolidine lock from the healthcare payer perspective. From the societal perspective, 4% tetrasodium EDTA resulted in savings of CAD$90,696 compared with heparin and savings of CAD$36,973 compared with taurolidine lock. This model-based analysis indicates that 4% tetrasodium EDTA can be considered the optimal strategy compared with taurolidine and heparin in terms of cost-effectiveness. The decision uncertainty can be reduced by conducting further research on the model input parameters. An expected value of perfect information analysis can identify what model input parameters would be most valuable to focus on.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Universal Maternal Pertussis Immunisation in Thailand: A Comparison of Two Model Structures.

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing universal maternal pertussis immunisation under the national vaccine programme in Thailand. We conducted a cost-utility analysis from a societal perspective to compare maternal vaccination with (1) TdaP vaccine, (2) Td vaccine and aP vaccine, and (3) Td vaccine only. We constructed two decision-tree models with Markov elements, each following a different clinical pathway, to allow us to examine structural uncertainty. Costs were converted to 2021 Thai Baht (THB) and a discount rate of 3% was applied to health and cost outcomes, with sensitivity analysis at 0% and 6%. Parameter uncertainty was investigated through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, with expected value of perfect information analysis. Maternal pertussis vaccination would avert 27 cases and up to one death per year. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for adding aP to the maternal immunisation schedule is 2,184,025 THB/QALY and the ICER for replacing maternal Td vaccination with TdaP is 3,198,101 THB/QALY. Maternal pertussis vaccination only becomes favourable in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis at cost-effectiveness thresholds above 6,000,000 THB/QALY, far above the Thai threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY. If incidence is less than 397 cases per 100,000, maternal pertussis vaccination will not be cost-effective in Thailand, within the plausible range for vaccine effectiveness and probability of hospitalisation. Budget impact is dominated by vaccination costs, which represent 12% and 18% of the 2021 national vaccine programme budget for introducing aP vaccine or for switching Td with TdaP vaccine, respectively. We have found that maternal pertussis immunisation is not cost-effective in Thailand. Although there may be substantial under-reporting of pertussis cases, comparison with hospital data suggests that most under-reported cases are not hospitalised and therefore have negligible impact on our results. However, considerations such as affordability and local manufacturing may also be important for national immunisation programme decision-making.

First-line Daratumumab in Addition to Chemotherapy for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients Who are Transplant Ineligible: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Daratumumab is a standard-of-care treatment for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). According to the ALCYONE trial, the addition of daratumumab to bortezomib, melphalan, and prednisone (D-VMP) provides significantly longer overall survival and progression-free survival than bortezomib, melphalan, and prednisone (VMP) in patients with NDMM. However, considering the high price of daratumumab, it is necessary to conduct further research on its efficacy and cost. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness, from the US payer perspective, of D-VMP vs VMP in the first-line setting for patients with NDMM who are not eligible for autologous stem cell transplantation. A Markov model was developed to estimate the lifetime cost and effectiveness of VMP with or without daratumumab as the first-line therapy for patients with NDMM. Univariable sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to address the model robustness and uncertainty. Expected value of perfect information analysis was conducted to explore the uncertainty of decision-making and future costs. D-VMP provides an additional 2.417 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), at a cost of $30,893 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the transition probability of progression-free survival in D-VMP strategy, the price of daratumumab, and body weight of the patient influenced the model results most strongly. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that D-VMP versus VMP has a 90.8% probability of being cost-effective at the $150,000/QALY willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. The population expected value of perfect information was $2150 million at a WTP threshold of $50,000/QALY and $1481 million at $100,000/QALY. In this study, D-VMP was estimated to be cost-effective compared with VMP for patients with NDMM at a WTP threshold of $150,000/QALY.

Recovery tactics for sockeye blocked from anadromy evaluated through decision analysis and value of information

Choosing among recovery tactics for fish populations is challenged by high costs and uncertain outcomes. Depressed populations of salmonids are often supplemented using hatchery propagation; these strategies may involve releasing fish at different locations, densities, and life stages. We describe a unique decision context where supplementation is used to improve anadromous returns of a mixed anadromous-resident coastal sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) population. Current anadromous returns in this system are declining, while resident abundance is stable. The recovery of anadromous sockeye salmon depends on depends in part on the heritability of anadromy, since anadromous sockeye are used as hatchery broodstock. Managers have long assumed that anadromy is a heritable trait, but the mounting evidence shows that both genetic and environmental processes shape the expression of migratory phenotypes. We use decision analysis to evaluate a series of decisions regarding whether to allow fish passage above the dam, whether to stock anadromous progeny above or below the dam, at what life stage, and by how much. We further conduct a value of perfect information analysis to evaluate whether outcomes can be improved with an experiment aimed at estimating anadromy. When model projections are integrated over uncertain heritability, the optimal solution is to stock into the reservoir at a high rate and allow passage of adults back into the reservoir. Value of perfect information suggests that this decision is insensitive to heritability, implying that restoration decisions should not wait for a time-intensive experiment. This work emphasizes careful consideration of objectives and the value of experimentation in driving decisions regarding population recovery and management.

Economic Evaluation of the Hepatitis C Virus Treatment Extension to Early-Stage Fibrosis Patients: Evidence from the PITER Real-World Cohort

ObjectivesTo conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of two planning strategies of the second-generation direct-acting antiviral interferon-free regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection. MethodsA lifetime multicohort model comprised 8125 real-life patients enrolled in the PITER (Italian platform for the study of viral hepatitis) registry, implemented by the ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità). Two treatment planning strategies were compared: 1) policy 1—treat all patients regardless of the stage of fibrosis (F0–F4) with second-generation direct-acting antivirals and 2) policy 2—treat patients at F3/F4 stage and those who are prioritized by the scientific guidelines first, and the remaining patients when they reach the F3 stage. Clinical outcomes and costs were evaluated by using a lifetime horizon Markov model and adopting the third-party payer perspective. Health outcomes were expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). A sensitivity analysis was run to explore first- and second-order uncertainty and heterogeneity. An expected value of perfect information analysis was also conducted. ResultsPolicy 1 exhibits an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €8,775/QALY gained and remains less than €30,000/QALY in 94% of realizations produced by the Monte-Carlo simulation. Such a proportion increases to 97% when adopting a threshold of €40,000/QALY gained. ConclusionsMoving from the urgency criterion to evidence-based escalating strategies when prioritizing the access to new anti–hepatitis C virus treatments is a good investment in health, whose affordability should be explored through context-specific budget impact analyses.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of issuing longer versus shorter duration (3-month vs. 28-day) prescriptions in patients with chronic conditions: systematic review and economic modelling.

To reduce expenditure on, and wastage of, drugs, some commissioners have encouraged general practitioners to issue shorter prescriptions, typically 28 days in length; however, the evidence base for this recommendation is uncertain. To evaluate the evidence of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of shorter versus longer prescriptions for people with stable chronic conditions treated in primary care. The design of the study comprised three elements. First, a systematic review comparing 28-day prescriptions with longer prescriptions in patients with chronic conditions treated in primary care, evaluating any relevant clinical outcomes, adherence to treatment, costs and cost-effectiveness. Databases searched included MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Searches were from database inception to October 2015 (updated search to June 2016 in PubMed). Second, a cost analysis of medication wastage associated with < 60-day and ≥ 60-day prescriptions for five patient cohorts over an 11-year period from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Third, a decision model adapting three existing models to predict costs and effects of differing adherence levels associated with 28-day versus 3-month prescriptions in three clinical scenarios. In the systematic review, from 15,257 unique citations, 54 full-text papers were reviewed and 16 studies were included, five of which were abstracts and one of which was an extended conference abstract. None was a randomised controlled trial: 11 were retrospective cohort studies, three were cross-sectional surveys and two were cost studies. No information on health outcomes was available. An exploratory meta-analysis based on six retrospective cohort studies suggested that lower adherence was associated with 28-day prescriptions (standardised mean difference -0.45, 95% confidence interval -0.65 to -0.26). The cost analysis showed that a statistically significant increase in medication waste was associated with longer prescription lengths. However, when accounting for dispensing fees and prescriber time, longer prescriptions were found to be cost saving compared with shorter prescriptions. Prescriber time was the largest component of the calculated cost savings to the NHS. The decision modelling suggested that, in all three clinical scenarios, longer prescription lengths were associated with lower costs and higher quality-adjusted life-years. The available evidence was found to be at a moderate to serious risk of bias. All of the studies were conducted in the USA, which was a cause for concern in terms of generalisability to the UK. No evidence of the direct impact of prescription length on health outcomes was found. The cost study could investigate prescriptions issued only; it could not assess patient adherence to those prescriptions. Additionally, the cost study was based on products issued only and did not account for underlying patient diagnoses. A lack of good-quality evidence affected our decision modelling strategy. Although the quality of the evidence was poor, this study found that longer prescriptions may be less costly overall, and may be associated with better adherence than 28-day prescriptions in patients with chronic conditions being treated in primary care. There is a need to more reliably evaluate the impact of differing prescription lengths on adherence, on patient health outcomes and on total costs to the NHS. The priority should be to identify patients with particular conditions or characteristics who should receive shorter or longer prescriptions. To determine the need for any further research, an expected value of perfect information analysis should be performed. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015027042. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach.

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future.

Evaluación económica del stent medicado vs. convencional para pacientes con infarto agudo de miocardio con elevación del ST en Colombia

ObjectiveTo perform a cost-effectiveness and value of perfect information analysis comparing sirolimus-eluting stent with bare metal stent for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in Colombia. MethodsWe developed a Markov model from the payer perspective and considering a time horizon of 10 years in the base case. Transition probabilities were extracted from clinical studies identified from literature reviews. Costs were estimated using expert consensus and Colombian tariff handbooks. We performed a deterministic analysis around the time horizon, the discount rate and the price of the drug eluting stent. We developed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (10,000 Monte Carlo simulations) and a value of perfect information analysis for the global decision and parameter groups. ResultsIn the base case, the cost per quality adjusted life year gained was $ 53,749,654. The results are sensitive to the drug eluting stent price, but not to the time horizon and the discount rate. The expected value of perfect information was significantly higher for the probability of death and very late stent thrombosis. ConclusionsSirolimus-eluting stent is not cost-effective for patients with an ST segment elevation myocardial infarction. More future research is recommended around the risk of death and very late stent thrombosis, as well as in specific subgroups of patients and second-generation drug-eluting stents.

A model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a grommets-led care pathway for children with cleft palate affected by otitis media with effusion.

There is a paucity of evidence to guide the management of otitis media with effusion (OME), which is a common problem causing significant hearing impairment in children with cleft palate. The insertion of grommets is currently being used to correct hearing impairment and prevent complications of unmanaged OME, but there is ongoing discussion about whether thebenefits of grommets outweighthe costs and risks. A decision-tree model was developed to assess the surgical insertion of grommets with two non-surgical alternatives (hearing-aids and do-nothing strategies) in cleft palate children with persistent bilateral OME. The model assumed a 2-year time horizon and a UK National Health Service perspective. Outcomes were valued using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) estimated by linking utility values with potential hearing gains measured in decibels. Multiple data sources were used, including reviews of the clinical effectiveness, resource use and utility literature, and supplemented with expert opinion. Uncertainty in the model parameters was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Expected value of perfect information analysis was used to calculate the potential value of future research. The results from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the grommets strategy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9,065 per QALY gained compared with the do-nothing strategy, and the hearing-aids strategy was extended dominated by the grommets strategy. The population expected value of perfect information was £5,194,030 at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, implying that future research could be potentially worthwhile. This study found some evidence that the insertion of grommets to manage cleft palate children with bilateral OME is likely to be cost-effective, but further research is required to inform this treatment choice.

PRM163 The Use of Expected Value of Perfect Information Analysis Within Economic Evaluations and Health Technology Assessments in the UK

PRM163 The Use of Expected Value of Perfect Information Analysis Within Economic Evaluations and Health Technology Assessments in the UK

COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ALEMTUZUMAB FOR T-CELL PROLYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alemtuzumab (CAMPATH-1H) compared with conventional chemotherapy in people with T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (T-PLL). We developed a decision-analytic model to assess the costs and benefits of alemtuzumab or conventional therapy based on their effects on quality of life of patients. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio incorporating costs per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over lifetime. Due to the limited data available, a large number of assumptions had to be made to construct the cost-utility model. One-way, multi-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted to explore the impact of these uncertainties. Expected values of perfect information were also calculated for four specific scenarios. Depending on different key assumptions made, the PSA suggested distinct conclusions using a willingness-to-pay threshold of 30,000 GBP per QALY gained. Using this threshold, the probability that alemtuzumab would be cost-effective varies from 0 percent to 53 percent for the four modeled scenarios. Population expected value of perfect information analysis suggests that resolving the parameter uncertainty in the analysis for people with T-PLL in the United Kingdom would have considerable value--up to 5.3 million euro. Alemtuzumab appears more likely to be cost-effective if used earlier in the course of T-PLL and where it replaces the use of multiple alternative therapies. However, cost-effectiveness is highly uncertain and future research is clearly justified. Nevertheless, our analysis demonstrates the feasibility of considering the cost-effectiveness of an agent despite the presence of significant uncertainty to provide appropriate assessment information to policy makers.

Cost-effectiveness of breech version by acupuncture-type interventions on BL 67, including moxibustion, for women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation: a modelling approach

To assess, using a modelling approach, the effectiveness and costs of breech version with acupuncture-type interventions on BL67 (BVA-T), including moxibustion, compared to expectant management for women with a foetal breech presentation at 33 weeks gestation. A decision tree was developed to predict the number of caesarean sections prevented by BVA-T compared to expectant management to rectify breech presentation. The model accounted for external cephalic versions (ECV), treatment compliance, and costs for 10,000 simulated breech presentations at 33 weeks gestational age. Event rates were taken from Dutch population data and the international literature, and the relative effectiveness of BVA-T was based on a specific meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the results. We calculated percentages of breech presentations at term, caesarean sections, and costs from the third-party payer perspective. Odds ratios (OR) and cost differences of BVA-T versus expectant management were calculated. (Probabilistic) sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information analysis were performed. The simulated outcomes demonstrated 32% breech presentations after BVA-T versus 53% with expectant management (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43, 0.83). The percentage caesarean section was 37% after BVA-T versus 50% with expectant management (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59, 0.88). The mean cost-savings per woman was euro 451 (95% CI euro 109, euro 775; p=0.005) using moxibustion. Sensitivity analysis showed that if 16% or more of women offered moxibustion complied, it was more effective and less costly than expectant management. To prevent one caesarean section, 7 women had to use BVA-T. The expected value of perfect information from further research was euro0.32 per woman. The results suggest that offering BVA-T to women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation reduces the number of breech presentations at term, thus reducing the number of caesarean sections, and is cost-effective compared to expectant management, including external cephalic version.

Cost-effectiveness of Breech Version by Acumoxa for women with a breech fetus at 33 weeks gestation: A modelling approach

Question To evaluate the effectiveness and costs of the strategies Breech Version using Acumoxa and expectant management for women with a breech fetus at 33 weeks gestation. Methods A decision model was developed to compare Acumoxa with expectant management to rectify breech presentation, including associated events as External Cephalic Version (ECV), treatment compliance, and costs. We calculated percentages of breech presentations at term, caesarean sections, and costs from the third-party payer perspective. Odds Ratios (OR) and cost differences of Acumoxa versus expectant management were calculated. (Probabilistic) sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information analysis were performed. Results The percentage of breech presentations after Acumoxa was 32% versus expectant management 53%, (OR 0.61, 95%CI 0.43, 0.83). After Acumoxa, the percentage caesarean sections was 37% versus expectant management 50% (OR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59, 0.88). The mean cost-savings per woman was €451 (95%CI €109, €775; p=0.005) using Acumoxa. Sensitivity analysis showed that if 16% or more women offered Acumoxa complied, it was more effective and less costly than expectant management. To prevent one caesarean section, 7 women had to use Acumoxa. The expected value of perfect information from further research was €0.32 per woman. Conclusions Our results suggest that offering Acumoxa to women with a breech foetus at 33 weeks gestation reduces the number of breech presentations at term, thus reducing the number of caesarean sections, and is cost-effective compared with expectant management including associated events as External Cephalic Version.