Value-based Argumentation Research Articles

The Political Psychology of Cancel Culture: Value Framing or Group Identity?

“Cancel culture” has become a prominent phrase in US political commentary, with supporters and opponents relying on different value-based arguments to express their views. At the same time, these camps often fall along predictable partisan political lines. What, then, are the real motivations for promoting and opposing behaviors sometimes labeled as “canceling” in contemporary American politics? We explore this question through survey data from Pew in 2020 and two original survey experiments, conducted on the 2021 CES and a 2023 online sample. We examine how Americans define the term “cancel culture,” to what extent cancel culture is linked to both a range of core democratic values, and the role of partisanship in shaping support or opposition to specific behaviors. We observe a significant range of views about cancel culture and document connections to various political values. From our experiments, we find that partisanship is a potent driver of support for and understanding of cancel culture and that value-based framing has a weaker impact as compared to partisanship. Cancel culture provides an important case study of how Americans process conflicting norms and values, including free speech and political accountability, beyond the typical constraints of the formal political system.

Using n-ary multi-modal logics in argumentation frameworks to reason about ethics

Autonomous behaviors may raise ethical issues that agents must consider in their reasoning. Some approaches use deontic logics, while others consider a value-based argumentation framework. However, no work combines both modal logic and argumentation to reason about ethics. Hence, we propose a new argumentation framework where arguments are built from a n-ary multi-modal logic. It allows to express different kinds of operators, e.g. nullary choice or moral worth operators, dyadic deontic operators or mental states. However the standard attacks based on logical contradictions are no longer sufficient to catch an intuitive meaning for attacks. Hence, we enrich standard attacks by characterizing how oppositions between modal operators arise. Furthermore we show the standard logic-based attacks have a quasi-symmetry property, i.e. when an argument attacks another, this argument is necessarily attacked by another one. Our modal attacks do not have this property, which is highly relevant to decide a dilemma.

Confronting value-based argumentation frameworks with people’s assessment of argument strength

We reported a series of experiments carried out to confront the underlying intuitions of value-based argumentation frameworks (VAFs) with the intuitions of ordinary people. Our goal was twofold. On the one hand, we intended to test VAF as a descriptive theory of human argument evaluations. On the other, we aimed to gain new insights from empirical data that could serve to improve VAF as a normative model. The experiments showed that people’s acceptance of arguments deviates from VAF’s semantics and is rather correlated with the importance given to the promoted values, independently of the perceptions of argument interactions through attacks and defeats. Furthermore, arguments were often perceived as promoting more than one value with different relative strengths. Individuals’ analyses of scenarios were also affected by external factors such as biases and arguments not explicit in the framework. Finally, we confirmed that objective acceptance, that is, the acceptance of arguments under any order of the values, was not a frequent behavior. Instead, participants tended to accept only the arguments that promoted the values they subscribe.

Societal Acceptability of Insect-Based Livestock Feed: A Qualitative Study from Europe

Against the background of high demand for protein-rich feed in the EU and the environmental degradation associated with intensive livestock farming, insect-based feed is discussed as a potential sustainable alternative to conventional feed. However, the establishment of such an innovation depends not only upon technical and economic feasibility, but also on social factors impacting acceptability. The aim of this paper was to determine the acceptability of different social actor groups towards the use of insects as livestock feed, and to gain insights into value-based arguments leading to positive or negative attitudes and perceived benefits and risks. By means of qualitative content analysis, we analysed responses of an EU public consultation process linked to the authorization of insect protein in pig and poultry feed. We found a broad range of value-based arguments that influence the complex judgement process of acceptability that have been neglected in prior quantitative surveys. In particular, our results bring forward more critical voices, such as animal welfare concerns and scepticism that insect-based feed can contribute to a more sustainable livestock system. Based on these findings, we discuss whether insects as feed are a viable contribution to a sustainability-oriented transformation of the agri-food system. We conclude that under certain conditions (when raised on low-value organic side streams such as manure) insect-based livestock feed may contribute to incremental sustainability improvements. Overall, however, the innovation has limitations, not only in terms of regulatory conditions but especially with regard to ethical concerns.

The Delphi Method as a Morphological Catalyst for Foresight-Oriented Design Research

Anticipating expository concepts could be complex in the field of innovation management. Designers confront methodological challenges when they lock into a future framework with rapidly changing variables. The system’s users, for starters, do not yet exist. Second, ongoing changes in critical components and their interconnections make it hard to conceptualise relationships and offer synthesizable data. There is a lack of evidence in the rational core for generating forecasts. The Delphi method and morphological analysis are both well-established methods in strategic foresight. This paper suggests that using a morphology-based Delphi approach that employs a mix of the Delphi Method and Morphological Analysis to forecast future results in creative, complicated enterprises is beneficial. Furthermore, one tool compensates for the theoretical and functional shortcomings of the other by showing transparent, value-based arguments in an iterative, customizable manner. This documentary study has adopted a comparative study-based methodology that compares morphological Delphi in the context of future-oriented design to related fields in terms of procedural and theoretical parallels and differences. The results demonstrate morphological Delphi techniques through different scales of studies to provide a learning experience that is based on research, application and interaction which can be employed in future context design.

Problems of the Uncertainty of Law through the Prism of the Metamodern

The aim of the study is to form the fundamental problems of interpretation of legal texts on the basis of modern philosophical approaches, as well as the search for possible ways to overcome them. The focus of the article is the legal interpretation in international law, due to a number of special characteristics, like the extreme diversity of cultural and legal traditions, the relative primitiveness of international relations, etc. The author does not seek to draw prescriptive conclusions, but to describe descriptively the workings of the language of law, its understanding and use. The problem of the perception of texts is not new for science, but the relevance of this work is related to the analysis of the postmodernist critique of the interpretation of law. The main part of this critique focuses on two fundamental problems: semantic indeterminacy, when subjects put different meanings into the words they use, and also structural indeterminacy, demonstrated by M. Koskenniemi, when the arguments of the parties are seen as equivalent, making it impossible to make a truly reasoned choice between the arguments presented by the parties. Overcoming postmodernist criticism is possible on the basis of the concept of metamodern, which implies overcoming the main ideas and concepts of the modern and postmodern era. General scientific methods are used, in particular, deduction — to apply the concept of metamodern to individual problems of interpretation, as well as induction — to form general conclusions based on the analysis of the practice of interpretation of legal texts. The removal of the postmodern thesis of semantic indeterminacy of texts is based on the appeal to the ideas of modernity about the establishment of rules of interpretation and acceptance of certain limits of reasonable interpretation. Overcoming the identified structural ambiguity in the application of legal norms lies in rethinking the universal hierarchical organized system of values of modernity. In the modern world, a system with quasi-hierarchical values operates, where, in the absence of an explicitly constructed universal hierarchy, states view some values as higher in priority than others, making it possible for courts to choose between value-based arguments.

Workshop: Bringing economics, health and migration together: a mutual learning experiment

Abstract Acknowledging the role of economic arguments in political discourses and decision-making, researchers have begun to pay more attention to the fiscal implications of different health policy options for migrants. As yet, empirical evidence on economic effects of policy responses to migration and the societal costs or cost-effectiveness of competing strategies to address migrants’ health needs is scarce. Methodological challenges such as limited availability and accessibility of decent data often impede the generation of robust evidence. Further, little is known as to how evidence can effectively be moved into policy; e.g., the actual clout of economic arguments in migration policies debates, as opposed to other evidence- or value-based arguments, hitherto remains unclear. In other social policy domains such as educational and labour market integration, economic evaluations have become routine components of policy assessments. And under the title of, e.g., knowledge translation, strategies for the introduction of research evidence into political decision-making processes have been developed. The combination of similar goals and challenges suggests that there are opportunities to build bridges across sectors and disciplines - e.g., public health, social epidemiology, economics, social policy, data science - as well as across research-practice-divides, for the purposes of mutual learning and the joint improvement of research outcomes. The goal of this workshop is to start such learning processes by bringing together researchers and professionals from different fields, by sharing existing knowledge, and by jointly exploring the following questions: What are the thematic intersections, tensions and synergies between the different disciplines? What are common goals and questions? Which kinds of different knowledge complement each other towards those goals?Where are options for mutual learning, methodological transfer and/or synthesis? How can they help to overcome current challenges in estimating the costs of divergent migrant health policies?What can be learnt from existing knowledge translation strategies as regards the role of research for migrant health policy making?What challenges and open questions remain? The workshop will start with a brief introduction of key concepts and objectives. The first presentation will use three case studies to reflect on the potential of economic evaluation for improving health screening and assessment policies for asylum seekers in Germany. The second presentation will provide input from seminal research on public policy in migration contexts. A third presentation will summarize previous activities and insights of the work group “Economic arguments in migrant health policy making”. The following discussion will examine the above noted questions by tapping into the presenters’ expertise and the audience’s experience. The workshop will be closed with a summary of lessons learnt and directions for future research. Key messages Economic arguments play a central role in policy-making; but economic analyses of different migrant health policy options are hampered by various methodological challenges and tensions. Seminal research in other social policy domains offers potential for mutual learning, toward the end of generating valid economic evidence on the cost-benefits of migrants’ greater in-/exclusion.

Changes over time and changes yet to come

Change over time is of primary interest for ecologists and managers. Change can be positive and is often part of nature's flux, but it can also be negative if arising from impacts that push ecosystems beyond net sustainability. Researchers work long and hard to develop methodologies to gain insight into how much change is part of acceptable flux and how much is unacceptable impact; and monitoring change is also essential to identify levels of recovery over time after restorative management interventions and, in many cases, to fully test hypotheses. This issue's interview with Mike Dodkin, retired naturalist ranger and pest species officer, touches on all these themes as he recollects projects over a 40-year period. Mike was there during the period of social change that saw mineral sand mining on Australia's east coast sites destined for dedication as national parks post-mining. His role not only included finding ways to reduce mining impacts and attain recovery, but also involved starting up new restoration projects to overcome damage that occurred many decades previously – all such projects which will take many decades hence to be fully realized. In a similar vein in this issue, Brad Farmilio and colleagues report about changes in plant composition after 10 years of monitoring in grazed native pastures in south-eastern Australia after an incentive scheme to reduce impacts on grassland remnants; Richard van Dongen and colleagues observe changes in native vegetation on Dirk Hartog Island, Western Australia many years after removal of non-native herbivores; and, Andrew Carter and Laura Ruykys document a gradual eradication of introduced predators in a fenced reserve in South Australia The passage of time is also important to fully test new hypotheses. Hannah Franklin and colleagues in New Zealand tested the capacity of a range of native riparian plants to take up nitrogen and propose a framework for selecting species that can best buffer farm runoff into streams. Longer term study of riparian plantings based on this model will provide valuable insights, as will application of the value-based arguments for seascape repair put forward by Vishnu Prahalad and colleagues in this issue's second feature and Linda Luck and colleagues’ longer term testing of residual herbicides to reduce Gamba Grass populations in northern Australia. Indeed, all our interventions to improve the functionality of impaired ecosystems could be considered tests of hypotheses, including the core hypothesis that interventions can make a positive difference. Ian McLeod and colleagues acted on an informed hunch in North Queensland that relocation of coral colonies displaced by a cyclone would result in recovery, and all the indicators are pointing to success in this case and many others. In this and many cases involving lower-to-establish species or processes, only time and ongoing monitoring will tell. For example, longer time frames have proven to be useful in the detection by Tai White-Tony and colleagues of long-term patterns of establishment of tree species after mine site restoration in the Jarrah Forest in Western Australia – as well as to allow Kimberly McCallum and colleagues to assess the relationship between the configuration of planted species and their effective pollination in South Australian revegetation sites, many years after plant establishment. With the passage of time also comes change in personnel, such that longitudinal studies and ongoing nurturing of long-term recovery require commitments by institutions that persist beyond the working lives of individuals. It is hard to overstate the need for future managers and researchers to recognize the amount of past work that has gone into many studies and into securing the current condition of many sites. We need to firmly but gently remind current and future generations that long-term effort in these areas is a multi-generational compact.

Aggregation in Value-Based Argumentation Frameworks

Value-based argumentation enhances a classical abstract argumentation graph - in which arguments are modelled as nodes connected by directed arrows called attacks - with labels on arguments, called values, and an ordering on values, called audience, to provide a more fine-grained justification of the attack relation. With more than one agent facing such an argumentation problem, agents may differ in their ranking of values. When needing to reach a collective view, such agents face a dilemma between two equally justifiable approaches: aggregating their views at the level of values, or aggregating their attack relations, remaining therefore at the level of the graphs. We explore the strenghts and limitations of both approaches, employing techniques from preference aggregation and graph aggregation, and propose a third possibility aggregating rankings extracted from given attack relations.

Using Obesity Research to Shape Obesity Policy in Minnesota: Stakeholder Insights and Feasibility of Recommendations.

Preventing childhood obesity requires innovative, evidence-based policy approaches. This study examines the use of research evidence by obesity policy stakeholders in Minnesota and develops pilot tools for communicating timely evidence to policymakers. From November 2012 to January 2013, semistructured interviews were conducted with 51 Minnesota stakeholders in childhood obesity prevention. Interviewees included 16 state legislators and staff; 16 personnel from the Minnesota Department of Education, Minnesota Department of Health, and Minnesota Department of Transportation; and 19 advocates for and against childhood obesity prevention legislation (response rate = 71%). Participants were asked their views on 3 themes: (1) Whether and how they used research evidence in their current decision-making processes; (2) barriers to using research evidence for policymaking; and (3) suggestions for improving the evidence translation process. All interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed. A team approach to qualitative analysis was used to summarize themes, compare findings across interviewees' professional roles, and highlight unexpected findings, areas of tension, or illuminating quotes. Stakeholders used research evidence to support policy decisions, educate the public, and overcome value-based arguments. Common challenges included the amount and complexity of research produced and limited relationships between researchers and decision makers. Responding to interviewee recommendations, we developed and assessed 2 pilot tools: a directory of research experts and a series of research webinars on topics related to childhood obesity. Stakeholders found these materials relevant and high-quality but expressed uncertainty about using them in making policy decisions. Stakeholders believe that research evidence should inform the design of programs and policies for childhood obesity prevention; however, many lack the time and resources to consult research consistently. Future efforts to facilitate evidence-informed policymaking should emphasize approaches to designing and presenting research that better meets the needs of policy and programmatic decision makers.

Globalization and the Politics of Institutional Reform in Japan by Motoshi Suzuki

Reviewed by: Globalization and the Politics of Institutional Reform in Japan by Motoshi Suzuki Eiji Kawabata (bio) Globalization and the Politics of Institutional Reform in Japan. By Motoshi Suzuki. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2016. xii, 252 pages. $125.00. Motoshi Suzuki's book provides an analysis of government reform in Japan, in connection with changes in the international environment, especially globalization; the analysis consists of three components. The first is a theoretical discussion. In chapter 1 the author offers an overview of approaches to institutional change, particularly those based on rational choice, and presents the main framework that is used to examine Japanese government leaders' role in adjusting Japan's economic system to changes in the international environment in order to pursue economic development. The author also incorporates theoretical discussions in other chapters, in particular developing his analysis in conjunction with various discussions of Japanese politics and policymaking. The second component is historical studies. Suzuki uses the framework he has outlined to analyze government reform in Japan in case studies of reforms stimulated by changes in international relations before World War II. The third and final component is the application of his framework to case studies of contemporary government reforms under the influence of globalization in Japan. Each of these cases is very important, but they have rarely been examined by scholars outside Japan and the book's concise overview provides a basic understanding of each. The book thus covers a wide variety of relevant aspects of the issue, including theoretical approaches, historical overview, and case studies on recent government reform. This breadth of coverage is the book's strongest point. Nonetheless, the analysis includes some significant problems, among which I would include the following. First, the model the author sets up is in need of clarification. Suzuki's model is straightforward, if not simple. He posits "the extent and process of policy change" as dependent variables [End Page 485] and "change in the international order" as the independent variable, adding "policy authority allocation and related political strategies" as intervening variables (p. 8). However, methodologically, the last two variables are not intervening variables. An intervening variable is caused by an independent variable(s), but in this case neither of these two variables is caused by the independent variable. I would instead suggest that they are independent variables; it is plausible to argue that either policy authority allocation or related political strategies, or the combination of these two variables, determines the mode of policy change. The author needs to address this possibility or at least clarify his special use of the term. Second, the author's analytical framework has an epistemological problem in that it does not clearly distinguish between normative and positive theories. In general, normative theories incorporate value-based argument, for example, "what ought to happen," as an essential component, and normative theorists elucidate their position on a given subject. In contrast, theories based on positivism (try to) detach subjective value judgments in constructing theories. The author acknowledges that his "analytical framework has both normative and positive elements" (p. 8) and presents a normative analysis in chapter 1. However, none of the theoretical frameworks that are used in developing the author's "normative" theory belongs to the tradition of normative theories. Each of the cited theories may provide prescriptive propositions, but these propositions derive not from normative discussions of value but from empirical analysis, thus generally placing these theories in the positivist tradition. Suzuki also notes in this chapter, "I develop a normative analysis that sets the stage for the positive and empirical analysis" (p. 16). This implies that he combines normative and positive theories, but this is hardly a conventional approach in political science. Where theories such as critical theories do this, they explicitly state their epistemological stance. Unfortunately, since the author here does not explain his epistemological framework, his use of the term "normative theory" is confusing at best. Third, the book lacks consistency in its use of analytical models and theories. In chapter 1, the author discusses theories of institutional change along with the international relations theories of transgovernmentalism and intergovernmentalism. In chapter 2, based on existing studies, he presents four models of the relationship between...

(Not) talking about justice: justice self-recognition and the integration of energy and environmental-social justice into renewable energy siting

ABSTRACTRenewable energy often provokes heated debate on climate change, energy security and the local impacts of developments. However, how far such discussions involve thorough and inclusive debate on the energy and environmental-social justice issues associated with renewable energy siting remains ambiguous, particularly where government agendas prioritise renewable energy and planning systems offer limited opportunities for public debate on value-based arguments for and against renewable energy developments. Using the concept of justice self-recognition, we argue for greater attention to public discussion of the justice dimensions of renewable energy to assist in developing mechanisms to integrate distributive and procedural fairness principles into renewable energy decision-making. To explore how justice is currently invoked in such contexts, we examine recent U.K. policies for renewable energy and public submissions to applications for small-scale wind energy projects in Cornwall, U.K. The analysis of public comments revealed that justice concerns were rarely discussed explicitly. Comments instead did not raise concerns as justice issues or focused implicitly on distributive justice, stressing local aesthetic, community and economic impacts, clean energy and climate change. However, the findings indicated limited discussion of procedural or participatory justice, an absence that hampers the establishment of coherent procedures for deciding acceptable impacts, information standards, public participation and arbitrating disputes. We conclude by suggesting procedural reforms to policy and planning to enable greater public expression of justice concerns and debate on how to negotiate tensions between energy and environmental-social justice in renewable energy siting decisions.

Taking account of the actions of others in value-based reasoning

Practical reasoning, reasoning about what actions should be chosen, is highly dependent both on the individual values of the agent concerned and on what others choose to do. Hitherto, computational models of value-based argumentation for practical reasoning have required assumptions to be made about the beliefs and preferences of other agents. Here we present a new method for taking the actions of others into account that does not require these assumptions: the only beliefs and preferences considered are those of the agent engaged in the reasoning. Our new formalism draws on utility-based approaches and expresses the reasoning in the form of arguments and objections, to enable full integration with value-based practical reasoning. We illustrate our approach by showing how value-based reasoning is modelled in two scenarios used in experimental economics, the Ultimatum Game and the Prisoner's Dilemma, and we present an evaluation of our approach in terms of these experiments. The evaluation demonstrates that our model is able to reproduce computationally the results of ethnographic experiments, serving as an encouraging validation exercise.

An Introduction to the Morphological Delphi Method for Design: A Tool for Future-Oriented Design Research

Projecting analytical concepts is a difficult, though established process in innovation management. Designers face methodological obstacles, however, when engaging with a future system with rapidly changing factors. First, the system’s users do not yet exist. Second, continuing changes in key factors and their interactions make conceiving of relationships and delivering synthesizable data impossible. The rational core for making projections suffers from a lack of substantiation. Both morphological analysis and the Delphi method are established tools in strategic foresight. We suggest that a morphology-based Delphi method supports the process of projecting future outcomes in innovative, complex projects. In addition, each tool compensates for the other’s theoretical and functional deficits by illustrating transparent, value-based arguments in a modifiable, iterative manner.

The Slippery Slope Argument in the Ethical Debate on Genetic Engineering of Humans.

This article applies tools from argumentation theory to slippery slope arguments used in current ethical debates on genetic engineering. Among the tools used are argumentation schemes, value-based argumentation, critical questions, and burden of proof. It is argued that so-called drivers such as social acceptance and rapid technological development are also important factors that need to be taken into account alongside the argumentation scheme. It is shown that the slippery slope argument is basically a reasonable (but defeasible) form of argument, but is often flawed when used in ethical debates because of failures to meet the requirements of its scheme.

Formalizing value-guided argumentation for ethical systems design

The persuasiveness of an argument depends on the values promoted and demoted by the position defended. This idea, inspired by Perelman’s work on argumentation, has become a prominent theme in artificial intelligence research on argumentation since the work by Hafner and Berman on teleological reasoning in the law, and was further developed by Bench-Capon in his value-based argumentation frameworks. One theme in the study of value-guided argumentation is the comparison of values. Formal models involving value comparison typically use either qualitative or quantitative primitives. In this paper, techniques connecting qualitative and quantitative primitives recently developed for evidential argumentation are applied to value-guided argumentation. By developing the theoretical understanding of intelligent systems guided by embedded values, the paper is a step towards ethical systems design, much needed in these days of ever more pervasive AI techniques.

Internal coordination and legitimation strategies: assessing the influence of individual commissioners in the policy formulation process

While the Commission’s influence on Council decisions has attracted considerable scholarly attention, its internal dynamics are still not well known, in particular regarding the individual entrepreneurship of Commissioners. Aiming to contribute to the literature on the Commission’s inner workings, this article draws comparisons between the levels of influence that two Commissioners were able to exert in the course of two legislative drafting processes; one of these efforts resulted in the Commission proposal for a Climate and Energy Framework, and the other aimed at introducing a Smart Border Package. Based on document analysis and interviews, it is argued that the influence of a particular Commissioner is best explained by a combination of institutional and discursive analysis. While low levels of interdepartmental coordination serve to increase the discretion of Commissioners, their level of influence also depends on their ability to justify their position with value-based arguments.

Preventing Unnecessary Costs of Drug-Induced Hypoglycemia in Older Adults with Type 2 Diabetes in the United States and Canada.

BackgroundThe costs of drug-induced hypoglycemia are a critical but often neglected component of value-based arguments to reduce tight glycemic control in older adults with type 2 diabetes.MethodsAn economic (decision-tree) analysis compared rates, costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained associated with mild, moderate and severe hypoglycemic events for 6 glucose-lowering medication classes in type 2 diabetic adults aged 65–79 versus those 80 years and older. The national U.S. (Center for Medicare Services) and Canadian public health payer perspectives were adopted.FindingsIncidence rates of drug-induced hypoglycemia were the highest for basal insulin and sulfonylureas: 8.64 and 4.32 events per person-year in 65–79 year olds, and 12.06 and 6.03 events per person-year for 80 years and older. In both the U.S. and Canada, metformin dominated sulfonylureas, basal insulin and glucagon-like peptide1 receptor agonists. Relative to sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones had the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the U.S. and dominated sulfonylureas in Canada for adults 80 years and older. Relative to sulfonylureas, dipeptidyl peptidase4 inhibitors were cost-effective for adults 80 years and older in both countries, and for 65–79 year olds in Canada. Annual costs of hypoglycemia for older adults attaining very tight glycemic control with the use of insulin or sulfonylureas were estimated at U.S.$509,214,473 in the U.S. and CAN$65,497,849 in Canada.ConclusionsOptimizing drug therapy for older type 2 diabetic adults through the avoidance of drug-induced hypoglycemia will dramatically improve patient health while also generating millions of dollars by saving unnecessary medical costs.

Pragmatic and value-based argumentation in the 2015 Israeli elections

A discursive and argumentative analysis of the Israeli 2015 elections reveals how electoral strategies displayed unexpected similarities between rival parties such as the Likud and the Zionist Union, on the one hand, and the Jewish Home and Meretz, on the other hand, in their respective approaches to foreign policy and to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. While the mainstream Right and Left mainly emphasized security motives, used consequence-based arguments, and appealed to fear, the practical reasoning of the two smaller parties (Jewish Home and Meretz) competing with the Likud and the Zionist Union applied a value-based rather than a merely instrumental argumentation. This reconfiguration of the political map enlightens the peculiar dynamics of the 2015 elections.

P-04 - Nicotinamide treatment alters the contents of cell metabolism C regulating proteins in gastrocnemius muscle of young and old rats

Projecting analytical concepts is a difficult, though established process in innovation management. Designers face methodological obstacles, however, when engaging with a future system with rapidly changing factors. First, the system’s users do not yet exist. Second, continuing changes in key factors and their interactions make conceiving of relationships and delivering synthesizable data impossible. The rational core for making projections suffers from a lack of substantiation. Both morphological analysis and the Delphi method are established tools in strategic foresight. We suggest that a morphology-based Delphi method supports the process of projecting future outcomes in innovative, complex projects. In addition, each tool compensates for the other’s theoretical and functional deficits by illustrating transparent, value-based arguments in a modifiable, iterative manner.