Valuation Of Annuities Research Articles

Enhancing valuation of variable annuities in Lévy models with stochastic interest rate

This paper extends the valuation and optimal surrender framework for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits in a Lévy equity market environment by incorporating a stochastic interest rate described by the Hull-White model. This approach frames a more dynamic and realistic financial setting compared to previous literature. We exploit a robust valuation mechanism employing a hybrid numerical method that merges tree methods for interest rate modeling with finite difference techniques for the underlying asset price. This method is particularly effective for addressing the complexities of variable annuities, where periodic fees and mortality risks are significant factors. Our findings reveal the influence of stochastic interest rates on the strategic decision-making process concerning the surrender of these financial instruments. Through comprehensive numerical experiments, and by comparing our results with those obtained through the Longstaff-Schwartz Monte Carlo method, we illustrate how our refined model can guide insurers in designing contracts that equitably balance the interests of both parties. This is particularly relevant in discouraging premature surrenders while adapting to the realistic fluctuations of financial markets. Lastly, a comparative statics analysis with varying interest rate parameters underscores the impact of interest rates on the cost of the optimal surrender strategy, emphasizing the importance of accurately modeling stochastic interest rates.

Efficient valuation of variable annuities under regime-switching jump diffusion models with surrender risk and mortality risk

We present an efficient valuation approach for guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits (GMABs), guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDBs), and surrender benefits (SBs) embedded in variable annuity (VA) contracts in a regime-switching jump diffusion model. We incorporate into the contract the risks of mortality and surrender, with these events generally monitored discretely over the life of the policy. Using a combination of the continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) approximation and the Fourier cosine series expansion (COS) method, we determine that the valuation problem can be resolved within a regime-switching jump diffusion framework. Extensive numerical experiments showcase the efficiency of the proposed method, which proves to be more advantageous when compared to existing approaches like Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The thorough analysis explores how model parameters affect the valuation outcomes.

Efficient simulation and valuation of equity-indexed annuities under a two-factor G2++ model

Equity-indexed annuities (EIAs) with investment guarantees are pension products sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment. A flexible and common choice for modelling this risk factor is a Hull–White model in its G2++ variant. We investigate the valuation of EIAs in this model setting and extend the literature by introducing a more efficient framework for Monte-Carlo simulation. In addition, we build on previous work by adapting an approach based on scenario matrices to a two-factor G2++ model. This method does not rely on simulations or on Fourier transformations. In numerical studies, we demonstrate its fast convergence and the limitations of techniques relying on the independence of annual returns and the central limit theorem.

Consistent DCF Methods for Constant-Growth Annuities à la Modigliani & Miller or Miles & Ezzell

Abstract In this paper, we develop two complete discounted-cash flow (DCF) frameworks for the valuation of constant-growth annuities and perpetuities. By ‘complete’ we mean that these frameworks allow the valuation of a firm or project by means of different DCF methods, particularly, the equity method, the free-cash-flow (FCF) method, the adjusted-present-value-method, and the capital-cash-flow method. This also requires the derivation of formulas that allow the translation between different required returns, like the required return on unlevered and levered equity, the discount rate in the FCF method, and the required return on the tax-shield. Our paper departs from the two most advocated and mutually exclusive frameworks when dealing with DCF. The first is based on Modigliani and Miller (M&M), where the FCF at different points in time are independently distributed. The second framework rests on the analysis of Miles and Ezzell (M&E) who presume a first-order autoregressive cash-flow process. Some elements of a ‘complete’ framework exist in the literature, but in our opinion, a complete picture has not been developed yet. The contributions of this paper are the following: (1) We develop (or expand) the set of formulas that are required for the valuation of constant-growth annuities and perpetuities; (2) The formulas we develop in this paper are based on a backward-iteration process, which in itself represents a suitable tool for firm valuation; (3) Using a numerical example, we show that the two mutually exclusive frameworks of M&M or M&E achieve very different valuation results; (4) It turns out that the expected returns and the growth rate of the FCF are partly linked, but this relationship is different in the two frameworks; (5) In our numerical examples, we show how the constant-growth annuity or perpetuity, can be integrated with an explicitly planned FCF.

Coping with longevity via hedging: Fair dynamic valuation of variable annuities

This paper introduces a fair valuation framework for pricing variable annuity liabilities and their embedded guarantee riders within a dynamic multi-period context. We focus on variable annuities featuring the Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) rider, which exposes policyholders to both financial and longevity risks. We employ a fair dynamic valuation method that is market-consistent, actuarially-consistent, and time-consistent. Our findings demonstrate that this approach effectively establishes fair management fee rates, aligning with prior research and industry surveys. Furthermore, we highlight the potential for significant reductions in liability valuation, and consequently, GLWB rider pricing, through effective management of longevity risk within the insurer's net liability.

Valuation of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum maturity benefits and periodic fees

This paper focuses on the valuation of variable annuities with a guaranteed minimum maturity benefit under a regime-switching Lévy model. The model allows policyholders to surrender their annuities and receive a surrender benefit at predetermined tenor times before maturity. Additionally, we consider a state-dependent periodic fee structure where fees are deducted from the policyholder's account if it exceeds a certain level at discrete time points. Incorporating this fee structure, the Fourier cosine series expansion method based on characteristic functions is employed to determine the values and optimal surrender strategies for variable annuity contracts. Finally, we provide a comprehensive set of numerical examples to demonstrate and assess the effectiveness of our approach thoroughly.

Valuation of general GMWB annuities in a low interest rate environment

Variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits (GMWB) entitle the policy holder to periodic withdrawals together with a terminal payoff linked to the performance of an equity fund. In this paper, we consider the valuation of a general class of GMWB annuities, allowing for step-up, bonus and surrender features, taking also into account mortality risk and death benefits. When dynamic withdrawals are allowed, the valuation of GMWB annuities leads to a stochastic optimal control problem, which we address here by dynamic programming techniques. Adopting a Hull-White interest rate model, correlated with the equity fund, we propose an efficient tree-based algorithm. We perform a thorough analysis of the determinants of the market value of GMWB annuities and of the optimal withdrawal strategies. In particular, we study the impact of a low/negative interest rate environment. Our findings indicate that low/negative rates profoundly affect the optimal withdrawal behaviour and, in combination with step-up and bonus features, increase significantly the fair values of GMWB annuities, which can only be compensated by large management fees.

Explaining the Valuation of Annuities and Lumpsum Options

Explaining the Valuation of Annuities and Lumpsum Options

Valuation of variable annuities under stochastic volatility and stochastic jump intensity

We present an efficient valuation approach for guaranteed minimum benefits embedded in variable annuity contracts, where the log price follows a jump-diffusion model with stochastic volatilities. In particular, we allow separate Cox-Ingersoll-Ross processes for the underlying volatility and the jump intensity, each correlated with the diffusion term of the spot price. To value the contract under such complex stochastic nature, we rely on the recent advances in the frame dual projection methods with the stochastic process approximated by its expectation. As a byproduct of the transparent analytical expression derived, we derive the associated Greeks that provide a practical basis for risk management. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Valuation and optimal surrender of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits and periodic fees

This work studies the valuation and optimal surrender of variable (equity-linked) annuities under a Lévy-driven equity market with mortality risk. We consider a practical periodic fee structure which can vary over time and is assessed as a proportion of the fund value. At maturity, the fund value is returned to the policyholder according to a guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB). Mortality risk is also modeled discretely, and the contract offers a guaranteed minimum death benefit (GMBD) prior to maturity. The benefits accommodate caps on the growth of funds (in addition to the rising floor) to reduce the fee level and as a disincentive to early surrender. Interest rates are modeled via a deterministic discounting term structure, which can be calibrated (bootstrapped) to the rates market, according to market convention. An efficient and accurate valuation framework is developed, along with closed form pricing formulas in the case where policy surrender is not permitted. Numerous experiments are conducted to illustrate the interplay between contract parameters and the decision to surrender, and we provide an extensive analysis that investigates how to structure contracts to disincentivize early surrender.

Less-expensive long-term annuities linked to mortality, cash and equity

AbstractThis paper proposes a shift in the valuation and production of long-term annuities, away from the classical risk-neutral methodology towards a methodology using the real-world probability measure. The proposed production method is applied to three examples of annuity products, one having annual payments linked to a mortality index and the savings account and the others having annual payments linked to a mortality index and an equity index with a guarantee that is linked to the same mortality index and the savings account. Out-of-sample hedge simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed less-expensive production method. In contrast to classical risk-neutral production, which revolves around the savings account as reference unit, the long-term best-performing portfolio, the numéraire portfolio of the equity market, is employed as the fundamental reference unit in the production of the annuity. The numéraire portfolio is the strictly positive, tradable portfolio that when used as denominator or benchmark makes all benchmarked non-negative portfolios supermartingales. Under real-world valuation, the initial benchmarked value of a benchmarked contingent claim equals its real-world conditional expectation. The proposed real-world valuation and production can lead to significantly lower values of long-term annuities and their less-expensive production than suggested by the risk-neutral approach.

Valuation and Optimal Surrender of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Benefits and Periodic Fees

Valuation and Optimal Surrender of Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Benefits and Periodic Fees

Coping with Longevity Via Hedging: Fair Dynamic Valuation of Variable Annuities

Coping with Longevity Via Hedging: Fair Dynamic Valuation of Variable Annuities

Coping with Longevity via Hedging: Fair Dynamic Valuation of Variable Annuities

Coping with Longevity via Hedging: Fair Dynamic Valuation of Variable Annuities

Valuation of equity-indexed annuities under correlated jump–diffusion processes

This article studies the problem of valuation of equity-indexed annuities (EIA) when the stock index follows a Hawkes jump–diffusion model to account for the jump risk and clustering of index price jumps. Further, the interest rate is assumed to be driven by Vasicek type model, correlated to the dynamics of the stock index. In the proposed framework, an analytical expression is obtained for the price of annual reset and point-to-point designs of EIAs by employing the measure change technique. The effects of the model parameters governing the jump risk and the clustering of jumps on the EIAs pricing are illustrated through numerical experiments.

The difference between Modigliani–Miller and Miles–Ezzell and its consequences for the valuation of annuities

This paper addresses the differences between the Modigliani-Miller [M&M] model (1958, 1963) and the Miles-Ezzell [M&E] model (1980, 1985). The main difference between these two models concerns the ...

The Difference between Modigliani–Miller and Miles–Ezzell and its Consequences for the Valuation of Annuities

This paper addresses the differences between the Modigliani-Miller [M&M] model (1958, 1963) and the Miles-Ezzell [M&E] model (1980, 1985). The main difference between these two models concerns the stochasticity of the free cash flows. While M&M assume a strictly stationary process, M&E’s process is a martingale. However, this subtle difference has not been fully exposed, and previous literature has produced partly erroneous statements or inconsistent valuation models. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to illustrate and accentuate the effect of these two mutually exclusive stochastic processes on the timely behavior of cash flows, discount rates, and values of the firm, equity, debt and tax shield. For this purpose, we perform a numerical experiment that allows the determination of values and discount rates by means of the risk-neutral approach. We show that in the M&E model, all cash flows and values are path-dependent, while they are not in M&M’s world. Furthermore, in M&E’s model all discount rates are time-invariant, except for the discount rate applied to tax shields, which depends on the lifetime of the cash flows. Contrary, in the M&M setup, all discount rates change across time, except for the constant discount rate of the tax shield. This has consequences for the applicability of the well-known present-value formula for annuities and for building consistent valuation models for both finite and perpetual cash flows.

A Mixed Bond and Equity Fund Model for the Valuation of Segregated Fund Policies

Variable annuity policies are typically issued on mutual funds invested in both fixed income and equity asset classes. However, due to the lack of specialized models to represent the dynamics of fixed income fund returns, the literature has primarily focused on studying long-term investment guarantees on single-asset equity funds. This article develops a mixed bond and equity fund model in which the fund return is linked to movements of the yield curve. Theoretical motivation for our proposed specification is provided through an analogy with a portfolio of rolling horizon bonds. Moreover, basis risk between the portfolio return and its risk drivers is naturally incorporated into our framework. Numerical results show that the fit of our model to Canadian variable annuity data is adequate. Finally, the valuation of variable annuities is illustrated and it is found that the prevailing interest rate environment can have a substantial impact on guarantee costs.

Valuation of variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit under stochastic interest rate

This paper develops an efficient direct integration method for pricing of the variable annuity (VA) with guarantees in the case of stochastic interest rate. In particular, we focus on pricing VA with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) that promises to return the entire initial investment through withdrawals and the remaining account balance at maturity. Under the optimal (dynamic) withdrawal strategy of a policyholder, GMWB pricing becomes an optimal stochastic control problem that can be solved using backward recursion Bellman equation. Optimal decision becomes a function of not only the underlying asset but also interest rate. Presently our method is applied to the Vasicek interest rate model, but it is applicable to any model when transition density of the underlying asset and interest rate is known in closed-form or can be evaluated efficiently. Using bond price as a numéraire the required expectations in the backward recursion are reduced to two-dimensional integrals calculated through a high order Gauss–Hermite quadrature applied on a two-dimensional cubic spline interpolation. The quadrature is applied after a rotational transformation to the variables corresponding to the principal axes of the bivariate transition density, which empirically was observed to be more accurate than the use of Cholesky transformation. Numerical comparison demonstrates that the new algorithm is significantly faster than the partial differential equation or Monte Carlo methods. For pricing of GMWB with dynamic withdrawal strategy, we found that for positive correlation between the underlying asset and interest rate, the GMWB price under the stochastic interest rate is significantly higher compared to the case of deterministic interest rate, while for negative correlation the difference is less but still significant. In the case of GMWB with predefined (static) withdrawal strategy, for negative correlation, the difference in prices between stochastic and deterministic interest rate cases is not material while for positive correlation the difference is still significant. The algorithm can be easily adapted to solve similar stochastic control problems with two stochastic variables possibly affected by control. Application to numerical pricing of Asian, barrier and other financial derivatives with a single risky asset under stochastic interest rate is also straightforward.

Analytical Approximation of Variable Annuities for Small Volatility and Small Withdrawal

This work is concerned with asymptotic approximation applied to insurance valuation issues. Namely we present a method to derive explicit approximations for the valuation of variable annuities of guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) type in a hybrid model (Black--Scholes plus Hull--White). It leads to explicit and tractable approximation formulas, whose evaluation is almost instantaneous on a computer and that achieve about 0.01% accuracy in our experiments. Error estimates support the convergence of our approximations, as the withdrawal and volatilities are small.