Validity Of Risk Assessment Instruments Research Articles

Validity of Risk Assessment Instruments Among Juveniles Who Sexually Offended: Victim Age Matters.

Research has identified meaningful subtypes among the heterogeneous population of juveniles who sexually offended (JSO). However, studies that test the validity of risk assessment tools with JSO subtypes are limited. This study compared JSO who offended against a child victim (JSO-C) and JSO who offended against an adolescent/adult victim (JSO-A) with regard to rates of recidivism and the predictive validity of two risk assessment tools (Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR] and Juvenile Sexual Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II]). Data were analyzed from case files of 185 JSO-C and 297 JSO-A aged 12 to 18 years (M = 14.11, SD = 1.44) from a consecutive sample of JSO with contact sexual offenses. A total of 34 (7.1%) juveniles reoffended sexually, with no significant difference between the subtypes. The present results suggest that the ERASOR, particularly the structured professional judgment, and to a lesser degree the J-SOAP-II are better suited to predicting sexual recidivism in JSO-A than in JSO-C.

An Exploratory Study of Recidivism Risk Assessment Instruments for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses in Singapore.

The predictive validity of risk assessment instruments for persons who have committed sexual offenses has improved tremendously in the last four decades, but the progress has been limited to Western offender populations. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive validity of Static-99R, Stable-2007, Sexual Violence Risk-20, Version 2 (SVR-20 v2), Psychopathy Checklist—Revised (PCL-R), and Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) in predicting recidivism of persons convicted on sexual offenses in Singapore. Retrospective data of 134 such persons were used to code the various instruments. Receiver operating characteristic analyses revealed that combined Static-99R/Stable-2007 new standardized risk ratings, SVR-20 v2 total scores and risk ratings, PCL-R total scores, as well as LS/CMI total scores and risk ratings predicted sexual recidivism. All the aforementioned instruments’ total scores and risk ratings (if applicable) predicted any recidivism. However, risk profiles of this sample differed significantly from the normative Western samples.

The validity of risk assessment instruments for transition-age youth.

There is increasing recognition in the justice system that transition-age youth (TAY) are in a unique developmental period that may require tailored policies and practices. This study investigated the differential predictive validity and potential for disparate impact of both juvenile (the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk for Youth and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory) and adult risk assessment instruments (the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 [HCR-20] and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) with this age group (ages 16-24), relative to adolescents (ages 12-15) or older adults (ages 25-40). The authors obtained secondary data sets for the 4 instruments totaling 3,353 cases. The final samples for each instrument after exclusions ranged from 1,181 cases for the VRAG to 290 cases for the HCR-20. Age group generally did not moderate the prediction of any recidivism or of violent recidivism. The only exception was on the HCR-20, which significantly predicted recidivism regardless of age but operated better for TAY than adults. The VRAG was the only instrument with significant mean age-related differences in risk scores. The potential for an unfair impact of risk assessments on TAY is minimal regardless of whether they are processed in the juvenile or adult justice systems. This preliminary evidence suggests well-validated instruments used in either system should accurately quantify the likelihood of recidivism for TAY; however, this does not necessarily translate into effective risk management for this developmental period. More research using study designs developed specifically for examining age-related differences is needed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Supplemental Material for The Validity of Risk Assessment Instruments for Transition-Age Youth

Supplemental Material for The Validity of Risk Assessment Instruments for Transition-Age Youth

Testing the validity of criminal risk assessment tools in sexually abusive youth.

Although accurate risk appraisals are mandatory to provide effective treatment to juveniles who have sexually offended (JSOs), the current knowledge on the validity of risk assessment instruments for JSOs is inconclusive. We compared the predictive validities of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol II (J-SOAP II), the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR), and the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) scores concerning sexual, nonsexual-violent, and general criminal recidivism (based on both official and nonregistered reoffenses) in a consecutive sample of 597 male JSOs (Mage = 14.47 years, SDage = 1.57 years) while accounting for different recidivism periods, offense severities, and cumulative burden of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves and Cox regression analyses indicated that the tools allowed valid predictions of recidivism according to their intended purposes: The ERASOR was best suited to predict sexual recidivism within 0.5 and 3 years, the J-SOAP II was valid for predictions of sexual and nonsexual-violent recidivism within these recidivism periods, and the VRAG-R showed potential strengths in predicting nonsexual-violent recidivism, especially when committed above age 18. Elevated offense severity and burden of ACEs impeded predictive accuracies of the J-SOAP II and the VRAG-R, particularly in case of sexual recidivism. Our findings emphasize that risk assessment for JSOs must not rely solely on scores derived from risk assessment instruments, but a comprehensive consideration of a JSOs offense severity and psychosocial adversities is additionally necessary to approach accurate risk appraisals. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management.

Disentangling the risk assessment and intimate partner violence relation: Estimating mediating and moderating effects.

To manage intimate partner violence (IPV), the criminal justice system has turned to risk assessment instruments to predict if a perpetrator will reoffend. Empirically determining whether offenders assessed as high risk are those who recidivate is critical for establishing the predictive validity of IPV risk assessment instruments and for guiding the supervision of perpetrators. But by focusing solely on the relation between calculated risk scores and subsequent IPV recidivism, previous studies of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments omitted mediating factors intended to mitigate the risk of this behavioral recidivism. The purpose of this study was to examine the mediating effects of such factors and the moderating effects of risk assessment on the relation between assessed risk (using the Domestic Violence Screening Instrument-Revised [DVSI-R]) and recidivistic IPV. Using a sample of 2,520 perpetrators of IPV, results revealed that time sentenced to jail and time sentenced to probation each significantly mediated the relation between DVSI-R risk level and frequency of reoffending. The results also revealed that assessed risk moderated the relation between these mediating factors and IPV recidivism, with reduced recidivism (negative estimated effects) for high-risk perpetrators but increased recidivism (positive estimate effects) for low-risk perpetrators. The implication is to assign interventions to the level of risk so that no harm is done. (PsycINFO Database Record

Teismo psichiatrijos pacientų sociodemografinių ir klinikinių veiksnių bei nusikalstamo elgesio sąsajos

Lyginant su Vakarų šalimis Lietuvoje vis dar stokojama teismo psichiatrijos pacientų epidemiologinų studijų. Šiame straipsnyje analizuojami Rokiškio psichiatrijos ligoninėje 325 priverstinai gydomų pacientų sociodemografiniai bei klinikiniai veiksniai, kurie gali būti siejami su šių pacientų nusikalstama veika. Gauti rezultatai rodo, kad didžiąją dalį teismo psichiatrijos ligoninėje gydomų pacientų sudaro sergantieji psichoziniais (69,5 proc.) ir intelekto (12,3 proc.) sutrikimais. Taip pat nustatyta, kad tirtoje imtyje gana paplitusi priklausomybė nuo psichoaktyvių medžiagų (41,2 proc.), o daugumai asmenų priverstinis gydymas skirtas dėl atliktų smurtinių nusikalstamų veikų. Remiantis atliktos dvinarės logistinės regresijos analizės duomenimis, galima teigti, kad teismo psichiatrijos pacientų vyresnis amžius ir intoksikacija įvykio metu yra statistiškai reikšmingi veiksniai, prognozuojantys smurtinio elgesio riziką. Reikalingi tolimesni moksliniai tyrimai, kad būtų gauti specifiniai duomenys apie įvairius nusikalstamo elgesio rizikos faktorius Lietuvos teismo psichiatrijos populiacijoje. Rizikos vertinimo instrumentų patikimumas taip pat yra ateities tyrimų objektas.

Predicting reoffense in pedophilic child molesters by clinical diagnoses and risk assessment.

A Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-based diagnosis of pedophilia has so far failed to predict sexual reoffense in convicted child molesters, probably because of its broad and unspecific conceptualization. In this study, therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of the subtype exclusive pedophilia and a series of customary risk assessment instruments (SSPI, Static-99, Stable-2007, VRS:SO) and the PCL-R in a sample of prison released pedophilic sexual offenders. First, we examined the convergent validity of risk assessment instruments (N = 261). Then, we calculated the predictive accuracy of the measures and diagnosis for sexual recidivism by ROC analyses and subsequent Cox regression (N = 189). Also, predictive values with more clinical immediacy were calculated (sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV). The VRS:SO, the SSPI, and the Static-99 significantly predicted sexual recidivism, as did a diagnosis of exclusive pedophilia. Also, the VRS:SO predicted sexual reoffense significantly better than the Stable-2007, the Static-99/Stable-2007 combined score, and the PCL-R. When used combined, only the VRS:SO and a diagnosis of exclusive pedophilia added incremental validity to each other. Our findings support that the clinical diagnosis of an exclusive pedophilia based on DSM criteria and VRS:SO defined risk factors can reliably discriminate higher from lower risk offenders, even within the select subgroup of pedophilic child molesters.

Replicating the violence risk appraisal guide: a total forensic cohort study.

IntroductionThe performance of violence risk assessment instruments can be primarily investigated by analysing two psychometric properties: discrimination and calibration. Although many studies have examined the discrimination capacity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and other actuarial risk assessment tools, few have evaluated how well calibrated these instruments are. The aim of the present investigation was to replicate the development study of the VRAG in Europe including measurements of discrimination and calibration.MethodUsing a prospective study design, we assessed a total cohort of violent offenders in the Zurich Canton of Switzerland using the VRAG prior to discharge from prisons, secure facilities, and outpatient clinics. Assessors adhered strictly to the assessment protocol set out in the instrument’s manual. After controlling for attrition, 206 offenders were followed in the community for a fixed period of 7 years. We used charges and convictions for subsequent violent offenses as the outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted to measure discrimination, and Sanders’ decomposition of the Brier score as well as Bayesian credible intervals were calculated to measure calibration.ResultsThe discrimination of the VRAG’s risk bins was modest (area under the curve = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.63–0.81, p<0.05). However, the calibration of the tool was poor, with Sanders’ calibration score suggesting an average assessment error of 21% in the probabilistic estimates associated with each bin. The Bayesian credible intervals revealed that in five out of nine risk bins the intervals did not contain the expected risk rates.DiscussionMeasurement of the calibration validity of risk assessment instruments needs to be improved, as has been done with respect to discrimination. Additional replication studies that focus on the calibration of actuarial risk assessment instruments are needed. Meanwhile, we recommend caution when using the VRAG probabilistic risk estimates in practice.

Measuring the Outcome of Structured Spousal Violence Risk Assessments Using the B‐SAFER: Risk in Relation to Recidivism and Intervention

In this study, 216 risk assessments conducted by law enforcement officers in a suburb of Stockholm using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were followed up and correlated to both recidivism and type of protective actions implemented by the police. The results showed high recidivism rates across all risk categories, except in the highest risk group, where the recidivism rate was significantly lower. This finding suggests a poor, and even negative, predictive power of the police risk assessments: the higher the police-assessed risk, the lower the recidivism rate. However, it was clear that the police did very little, or nothing, in cases not assessed as high risk. All resources appear to have been directed to the high-risk cases, which seems to have had a preventive effect. Our results point to the importance of studying the nature and extent of protective actions taken in response to risk assessment, before drawing conclusions about the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

Structured risk assessment procedures: instruments of abuse?

Child protection services in Australia and elsewhere face increasing internal and external demands. As a response to these pressures, in part at least, services are increasingly implementing some form of risk assessment procedures. This article examines the practice implications of the increasing use of risk assessment instruments in child protection services. It highlights the complexity of the concept of risk as the basis for a future-oriented assessment activity. The authors suggest that this change of time frame (from what has happened to what might happen) may be detrimental to children. Through a critical review of the literature, the authors question whether risk prediction is possible and discuss the limitations of risk assessment instruments which omit some risk factors and may ignore the perspective of the child. The authors challenge the validity of risk assessment instruments in statutory settings and suggest that the protection of the organization may be a major objective in their implementation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.