Use Of Seasonal Climate Forecasts Research Articles

Factors Undermining the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts Among Farmers in South Africa and Zimbabwe: Implications for the 1st and 2nd Sustainable Development Goals

The adverse effects of climate change on food production coupled with growing inconsistencies in Indigenous knowledge systems have necessitated some farmers' willingness to rely on seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) to make informed farming decisions. SCFs provide information regarding the likelihood that the rainfall in the forthcoming season will be higher, lower or normal. While SCFs have scaled up food production among some rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), some farmers find it difficult to plug into this vital technology. Failure to utilize SCFs could have severe consequences for household food and nutrition security, especially in semi-arid countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe. By systematically unpacking the literature in South Africa and Zimbabwe from 2011 to 2021, this article seeks to demystify the factors that hamper the use of SCFs in the aforementioned countries. Results indicate that failure to comprehensively understand and interpret probabilistic forecasts as well as ill-timing of forecast dissemination, among others, are factors that undermine the use of SCFs. These issues are discussed both within the broader theoretical debates revolving around ways to dismantle the barriers undermining the use of SCFs in SSA, which could hamper the attainment of both the first and second sustainable development goals.

Climate Information Services Available to Farming Households in Northern Region, Ghana

Abstract Climate information services can build the resilience of African farmers to address the increasing threats associated with climate change. This study used household surveys with 200 farmers and focus group discussions to identify the types of climate information services available to farming households in two selected districts (Tolon and Nanton) in the Northern Region of Ghana. The study also identified the dissemination channels and the barriers faced by farmers in their access and use of climate information services for building climate resilience in Ghanaian farming systems. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the determinants of farmers’ access to climate information services. Results show that 70% of the surveyed farmers had access to varied forms of climate information services. The most prevalent meteorological variables accessible to them were rainfall, temperature, and windstorms in the form of daily and weekly weather forecasts, with only very limited availability and use of seasonal climate forecasts. Radio, television, and advice from extension agents were reported as the major dissemination channels by study respondents. A majority of the farmers reported lack of communication devices, mistrust in weather and climate forecasts, and lack of visual representations in the forecasts as major barriers to access and use of climate information services. The results highlight the importance of timely and reliable access to climate information services in enhancing farmers’ decision-making capacities and the need for training and recruitment of more extension agents to work with farmers on linking climate information services to targeted actions on crop and land management.

Enabling Conditions for Improved Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast in Arid and Semi-Arid Baringo County—Kenya

The use of seasonal climate forecasts can inform implementation of planned adaptation strategies to stabilize pastoral livestock assets in drought prone agro ecological zones. The main objective of this study was to assess use of seasonal climate forecasts as strategies for securing pastoralists assets in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) of Baringo County. The study used five (5) study locations that were purposively picked to ensure that they fall within the ASAL agro-ecological zones, LM5 and IL6. The total sampled households from the five locations was 221. The study used data from household survey to establish barriers to use of seasonal climate forecasts, use of traditional climate information and enabling conditions. Mean comparisons and frequencies of ratings were generated to ascertain the use of traditional climate information among the respondents. Sensitivity analysis was useful in identifying the most significant barriers to uptake of seasonal climate forecasts and the best and most significant enabling conditions/institutions to the access and usage of climate forecasts. The study established that majority (72.4%) of the respondents relied on traditional climate forecast methods than scientific methods in decision-making. The factors with greater influence on uptake of seasonal climate forecast information were lack of information, access, diversified sources of income and insecurity/conflicts, illiteracy and culture. The institutions with large influence were knowledge dissemination linked to radio and extension services and local climate information. The study recommends increased investments in strengthening and equipping human resource capacities of the pastoral community, local weather stations and extension services to foster uptake of scientific climate information to help reduce vulnerability to drought events in the arid and semi-arid lands.

Barriers and enablers to the use of seasonal climate forecasts amongst organisations in Europe.

Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1671-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exploring the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Europe through expert elicitation

The importance of climate information for decision-making in sectors susceptible to climate variability and change is widely recognised. Advancements in climate science have led to an increased interest in seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) although in Europe very little is known about the practical use of these forecasts. To start filling this gap we conducted a workshop with experts in this subject area in order to elicit their knowledge and experiences regarding the current use of SCF in Europe.We found that although the use of SCF across Europe is fairly limited, particular sectors such as energy, water, insurance, and transport are taking the lead. The central role of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and National Meteorological Services as the main providers of SCF in Europe was also highlighted. Perceived barriers to their uptake tend to be associated with factors such as accessibility, relevance, and usability of SCF by the end-users.Some of our findings are consistent with other experiences outside Europe where the uptake of SCF for decision-making has a longer history. For example, the interaction between actors, the usability of the information provided, and the influence of institutional and social factors have all been noted as important aspects influencing the use of these forecasts in Europe. However, as these findings are based on experts’ knowledge further research with decision-makers and end-users is needed to better understand the use and potential benefits of SCF in Europe.

Seasonal climate forecasts for medium-term electricity demand forecasting

Air temperature is an effective predictor for electricity demand, especially during hot periods where the need of electric air conditioning can be high. This paper presents for the first time an assessment of the use of seasonal climate forecasts of temperature for medium-term electricity demand prediction. The retrospective seasonal climate forecasts provided by ECWMF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are used to forecast the June–July Italian electricity demand for the period 1990–2007.We find a relationship between summer (June–July) average temperature patterns over Europe and Italian electricity demand using both a linear and non-linear regression approach. With the aim to evaluate the potential usefulness of the information contained into the climate ensemble forecast, the analysis is extended considering a probabilistic approach.Results show that, especially in the Center-South of Italy, seasonal forecasts of temperature issued in May lead to a significant correlation coefficient of electricity demand greater than 0.6 for the summer period. The average correlation obtained from seasonal forecasts is 0.53 for the temperature predicted in May and 0.19 for the predictions issued in April for the linear model, while the non-linear approach leads to the coefficients of 0.62 and 0.36 respectively. For the probabilistic approach, seasonal forecasts exhibit a positive and significant skill-score in predicting the demand above/below the upper/lower tercile in many regions.This work is a significant progress in understanding the relationship between temperature and electricity demand. It is shown that much of the predictable electricity demand anomaly over Italy is connected with so-called heat-waves (i.e. long lasting positive temperature anomalies) over Europe.

Climate and health in Africa

This paper describes the work of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and its partners towards the development of climate services for the health sector in Africa; integrating research, operational applications and capacity building alongside policy development and advocacy. It follows the evolution of IRI’s health work from an initial focus on the use of seasonal climate forecasts to a wider agenda serving climate and environmental information needs to a broad range of health-related users. Recognizing that climate information must be relevant to the priority policy and programming needs of national and international health stakeholders, this review highlights an approach that has centered not only on the assessment and creation of evidence, but also on knowledge transfer through engagement with decision-makers. Current opportunities and priorities identified for the routine use of climate and environmental information in health in Africa include: i) understanding mechanisms by which climate impacts on transmission and occurrence of disease; ii) mapping populations at risk both in space and by season; iii) developing early warning systems; iv) understanding the contributions of climate to trends in disease incidence v) improving the evaluation of the impacts of climate-sensitive interventions.While traditional metrics (e.g. peer review publications) have been important in establishing evidence for policy, the IRI’s role as a knowledge broker (in research and professional capacity building, facilitation of communities of practice, and engagement in policy dialogue at local and global scale) has been critical to delivery of its mission.

Nitrogen Management Guidelines for Sugarcane Production in Australia: Can These Be Modified for Wet Tropical Conditions Using Seasonal Climate Forecasting?

Sugarcane is a highly valuable crop grown in tropical and subtropical climates worldwide primarily for the production of sucrose-based products. The Australian sugarcane industry is located in close proximity to sensitive environments and the apparent declining health of the Great Barrier Reef has been linked to damaging levels of land-based pollutants entering reef waters as a result of sugarcane cultivation undertaken in adjacent catchments. Unprecedented environmental scrutiny of N fertiliser application rates is necessitating improved N fertiliser management strategies in sugarcane. Over time the focus of N fertiliser management has shifted from maximising production to optimising profitability and most recently to improved environmental sustainability. However, current N calculations are limited in their ability to match N fertiliser inputs to forthcoming crop requirements. Seasonal climate forecasts are being used to improve decision-making capabilities across different sectors of the sugarcane value chain. Climate is a key driver of crop growth, N demand and N loss processes, but climate forecasts are not being used to guide N management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts could be used to develop N management strategies for ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ years by guiding application rate, timing and/or frequency of N inputs and the benefit of using alternative forms of N fertiliser. The use of seasonal climate forecasts may allow more environmentally sensitive yet profitable N management strategies to be developed for the Australian sugarcane industry.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

An ex‐ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger

AbstractThis work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA‐H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk‐aversion. Simulations over an historical 18‐year period 1990‐2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches + 31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Understanding social resilience to climate variability in primary enterprises and industries

Resource-dependent industries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and their ability to adapt will be as critical to society as to the natural systems upon which they rely. More than ever, resource-users will need to anticipate, and prepare for, climate-related changes, and institutions will need to be particularly supportive, if resource industries and the extended social systems dependent on them are to be sustained. I examine the capacity of cattle-graziers in Australia to cope and adapt to climate variability as a precursor for understanding their vulnerability to climate change by assessing: (i) their perception of risk, (ii) their capacity to plan, learn and reorganise, (iii) their proximity to the thresholds of coping, and (iv) their level of interest in adapting to change. Graziers perceived themselves to be resilient to climate variability in their perceptions of climate risk, reorganising capacity, coping, and interest in adapting. Their dependency on the grazing resource and use of seasonal climate forecasts were significant influences, suggesting that resilience could be enhanced. Facilitated collaborative learning amongst graziers and other stakeholders may assist to develop strategic skills, increasing climate awareness, developing financial security and adopt climate tools such as seasonal climate forecasts. Enhanced strategies for coping with climate variability will provide a way for encouraging gradual, incremental adjustments for climate adaptation.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000–01 (n = 43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n = 49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n = 42) to 51% in 2003 (n = 49) (P = 0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1–3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n = 25) didn’t understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn’t use seasonal forecasts (n = 24) (P > 0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, ‘The Season Ahead’ newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

AgClimate: a case study in participatory decision support system development

Potential economic benefit exists from the use of seasonal climate forecasts in agriculture. To assess potential end user attitudes toward and interests in climate data, and to provide inputs from users to the development of decision support tools, we conducted a series of surveys. Survey results affected the design, development, and enhancement of AgClimate, a web-based decision support system for minimizing climate risks to agriculture. The overall process is an example of how decision makers can participate in the research process, thereby improving the value and relevance of research products such as decision support systems.

Use of seasonal climate information to predict coconut production in Sri Lanka

AbstractAccurate forecasting of annual national coconut production (ANCP) is important for national agricultural planning and negotiating forward contracts. Climate and the long‐term trends (attributed to ‘technology’) are major factors that determine ANCP. The effect of climate on ANCP of the following year was studied for the seven agro‐ecological regions (AER's) in the principal coconut growing areas for the period 19502002. Climate was studied based on seasons aggregated by the monsoon calendar and by quarters that are consistent with the agricultural calendar. The use of quarterly seasons explained more of the variability of ANCP than the use of monsoon based seasons. January–March rainfall in all AER's and July–September rainfall in the wetter regions are positively correlated with the ANCP (p < 0.005). The technology effect was estimated using a log–linear trend model. The regression model integrates both climate and technology effects developed to predict ANCP with high fidelity (R2 = 0.94). The climate effect was estimated by regressing production data that had been de‐trended to remove the technology effects with quarterly rainfall in the year prior to harvest. The most significant predictors were found to be the quarterly rainfall from the AER's in the coconut growing regions that are designated as wet and intermediate. Representative rainfall from each quarter was used in a regression model with corrections for the technology effect. The correlation between observed and predicted values of the ANCP was 0.83 (p < 0.001). The prediction of ANCP for 2003 and 2004 gave errors of only 6.5 and 7.0%. The estimated value of ANCP for 2005 is 2715 million nuts, which is 12% higher than the mean. The lead time of the prediction extends to 15 months but it may be extended with the use of seasonal climate forecasts to 24 months. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

Development and Accreditation of an Applied Climate Education Unit for Sustainable Land Use in Australia

ABSTRACT In recent years, there have been significant developments in climate science relevant to agriculture and natural resource management. Assessing impacts of climate variability and use of seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly important elements in the management “toolkit” for many Australian farmers. Consideration of climate change further increases the need for improved management strategies. While climate risk extension activities have kept pace with advances in climate science, a national review of the Vocational Education and Training system in Australia in relation to “weather and climate” showed that these topics were “poorly represented” at the management level in the Australian Qualifications Framework, and needed increased emphasis. Consequently, a new Unit of Competency concerning management of climatic risk was developed and accredited to address this deficiency. The objective of the unit was to build knowledge and skills for better management of climate variability via the elements of surveying climatic and enterprise data; analysing climatic risks and opportunities; and developing climatic risk management strategies. This paper describes establishment of a new unit for vocational education that is designed to harness recent developments in applied climate science for better management of Australia's highly variable climate. The main benefits of the new unit of competency, “Developing climatic risk management strategies,” were seen as improving decisions in climate and agriculture, and reducing climate risk exposure to enhance sustainable agriculture. The educational unit is now within the scope of agricultural colleges, universities, and registered training organisations as an accredited unit.

Encouraging use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers

AbstractWhat encourages use of seasonal climate forecasts? Considerable effort is being applied in developing seasonal climate forecasts and demonstrating the potential benefits available to farmers from using seasonal climate forecasts. This study examines three factors underlying the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers: the level of forecast understanding by farmers, the format presentation of the forecasts, and the attitude of farmers towards the usefulness of forecasts as indicators of future rainfall. Using judgement analysis, the use of forecasts in cropping decisions was determined for 73 Australian farmers. Then a moderated regression analysis was used to predict forecast use from the three underlying factors. The study found that a good understanding of the forecast was more important than the forecast format in predicting its use. However, this main effect of good understanding on higher use was qualified by a three‐way interaction, such that good understanding was only associated with higher use when farmers had a favourable attitude toward the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts and the forecasts were presented in a frequency format. Thus, the study found all three factors were important in predicting the use of seasonal climate forecasts by farmers. However, relatively little is known about farmer attitudes toward the usefulness of seasonal climate forecasts and how these attitudes arise, and further research is recommended in these areas. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Book Review: Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa

Book Review: Coping with climate variability: the use of seasonal climate forecasts in Southern Africa

Review of seasonal forecasting in South Africa: producer to end-user

Reliable seasonal forecasting of climate, particularly for the rainy season for South Africa, has the potential to be of great benefit to users. Foreknowledge of temperature and rainfall conditions can assist planning, management and mitigation decisions for users from many sectors of the economy. Pre-requisites of a useful seasonal forecast, however, would include ease of interpreta- tion, acceptable accuracy as well as efficient dissemination. This paper describes the process of the development, dissemination and use of seasonal climate forecasts in South Africa. We critically analyse the process and suggest proposals for further research and development. Also addressed are the needs of users, maximisation of potential forecast benefits and some proposals for more efficient distribution.

Challenges and Opportunities Provided by Seasonal Climate Forecasts: A Literature Review

Use of seasonal climate forecasts is a rapidly evolving area. Effective research and application of climate forecasts require close cooperation between scientists in diverse disciplines and decision makers. Successful collaboration requires all players to at least partially understand each other's perspectives. Issues associated with seasonal forecasts, through a selected review of both physical and social sciences literature, is presented. Our hope is that the review will improve research in this area by stimulating further collaborations.

Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Rangeland-Based Livestock Operations in West Texas

Abstract The potential for west Texas ranchers to increase the profitability of their enterprises by becoming more proactive in their management practices by using seasonal climate forecasts is investigated using a focus group and ecological–economic modeling. The focus group felt forecasts could potentially be used in making decisions concerning stocking rates, brush control, and deer herd management. Further, the focus group raised concerns about the potential misuse of “value-added” forage forecasts. These concerns necessitate a revisiting of the value-added concept by the climate-forecasting community. Using only stocking-rate decisions, the potential value of seasonal forage forecasts is estimated. As expected, the economic results suggest the value of the forecasts depends on the restocking and destocking price along with other economic factors. More important, the economic results and focus-group reactions to these results suggest the need for multiyear modeling when examining the potential impact ...