Use Of Risk Analysis Methods Research Articles

The development of a risk-based maintenance flowchart to select the correct methodology to develop maintenance strategies of oil and gas equipment

There are hundreds, even thousands of equipment that are installed on an Oil and Gas Plant. The equipment can be static equipment, rotating machinery, or protective devices. Each type of equipment has a unique failure mechanism and failure mode. Maintenance tasks should be performed to prevent these failures from being happened. The maintenance task should be developed based on the methodology, which will capture the failure mechanism yet to prevent it from being more severe. Before March 2018, the Indonesian government has adopted a time-based maintenance policy for all static equipment operated by oil and gas companies operating in the Republic of Indonesia’s territory. Every three years, the static equipment that works must be inspected and recertified. In March 2018, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources issued regulation No. 18, which allows the use of risk analysis methods to determine maintenance strategies, known as risk-based maintenance, for all equipment operated by oil and gas companies operating in Indonesia. This paper will develop an initial flowchart to select the correct methodology to develop maintenance based upon the dominant failure mode. A case study to demonstrate the flowchart has also been performed in an Onshore Receiving Facility (ORF).

Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved.

An integrated risk assessment based on uncertainty analysis for cargo vessel safety

The use of risk analysis methods as decision support tools is getting more and more acceptance to analyze, recover or mitigate potential risks in engineering applications. Integrated risk analysis techniques lead to obtain more reliable and realistic solutions. In this paper, ‘Fuzzy Based Risk Assessment’ has been used and systematically incorporated in terms of a set of plausible model scenarios leading to cargo vessel accidents at the coasts and open seas of Turkey.Through the analysis, four main aspects of uncertainty proposed by authors, i.e. level of understanding, quality of knowledge, uncertainty level of cargo ship accidents and sensitivity levels of model parameters, are integrated to model parameters to analyze cargo ship accidents. In order to investigate the effects of uncertainty parameters to model parameters, the paper incorporates ‘Fuzzy Set Theory’, ‘fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, AHP’ and ‘fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, TOPSIS’ methods due to the nature of subjectivity and ambiguity of the parameters in uncertain marine environment. ‘fuzzy analytic hierarchy process’ is used to analyze and determine the weights of the aspects of uncertainty while ‘fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution’ is employed for ranking the model parameters. The case study demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed methodology. As a result, a risk perspective for the integrated risk management and decision making process is presented.

Enhanced Decision Making through Probabilistic Shipwreck Risk Assessment: Focusing on the Situation in Greece

The potential leakage of oil trapped in the hull of fully or partially submerged shipwrecks has been a growing concern worldwide mainly due to major uncertainties therein and the great potential for environmental damage. The high cost of either preventing or reacting to potential oil discharges from shipwrecks into the environment mandates the use of risk analysis methods in order to identify the most dangerous cases and prioritize the allocation of resources. The purpose of this study is to present a probabilistic risk assessment method that will incorporate the various uncertainties into a structured and quantitative approach. One of the main factors affecting the release of oil from a shipwreck is the amount and progression of corrosion of the steel structure of the wreck, which is a dynamic process. The proposed model will take this into account by applying a time dependent approach that can be used to forecast how the risk rating, that is calculated for each case, changes as a function of time. The analysis will be concluded by applying a sensitivity analysis for the calibration of the model results. Geographically, this study will focus on Greece which presents a particularly interesting case due to its unique geomorphology and its rather developed maritime domain that is a direct consequence thereof. The great number of islands situated in Greece present an additional concern from a risk perspective because oil spill response operations are therefore constituted extremely difficult and costly. Another consideration, which is directly related to the high value of the various tourist activities, is the fact that even a small amount of spilled oil could be catastrophic for the local economies if the response is not fast enough. These issues indicate a growing need for the application of risk analysis tools that will aid in the decision making process relating to the optimum allocation of resources that are needed to efficiently address the problem as well as the prioritization of the most environmentally dangerous shipwrecks.

From the Editors

From the Editors

Risk analysis and risk management approaches applied to the petroleum industry and their applicability to IO concepts

Due to changes introduced by Integrated Operations (IO) it is possible that traditional risk analysis and risk management approaches in the oil and gas industry are also challenged. In this paper we study the impact on these approaches by asking two questions: (1) what methods for risk analysis are used in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? (2) What are the risk analysis and risk management challenges in an IO context from the perspective of actors in the Norwegian oil and gas industry? An explorative approach was chosen and the empirical findings are based on three separate studies: (1) a survey of risk analysis and risk management in different business sectors in the oil and gas industry; (2) qualitative interviews about the generation of knowledge for decisions that involve risk in an operating company; and (3) qualitative interviews of people working with risk analyses in different companies exploring their use of risk analysis methods. The four main results are: due to IO it is necessary to look for other inputs to risk analyses; establish suitable assessment approaches to human and organizational issues; develop resilience-based approaches for operational risk assessment; and, utilize IO to improve the risk management process.

Assessment of the food control system in the State of Kuwait

National food control systems are a key element in the protection of consumers from unsafe foods and from other fraudulent practices. International guidance is available and provides a framework for enhancing national systems. However, it is recognized that before reaching decisions on the necessary improvements to a national system, an analysis is required of the current state of key elements in the present system. This paper provides such an analysis for the State of Kuwait. The fragmented nature of the food control system is described. Four key elements of the Kuwaiti system are analyzed: the legal framework, the administrative structures, the enforcement activity and the provision of education and training. It is noted that the country has a dependence on imported foods and that the present national food control system is largely based on an historic approach to food sampling at the point of import and is unsustainable. The paper recommends a more coordinated approach to food safety control in Kuwait with a significant increase in the use of risk analysis methods to target enforcement.

Process failure modes and effects analysis (PFMEA): A structured approach for quality improvement in the metal forming industry

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is one potential tool with extended use in reliability engineering for the electrical and electronic components production field as well as in complicated assemblies (aerospace and automotive industries). The main purpose is to reveal system weaknesses and thereby minimize the risk of failure occurrence. The FMEA technique is used in the design stage of a system or product (DFMEA) as well as in the manufacturing process (PFMEA). Currently, the implementation of quality systems (such as ISO 9001, QS9000, TS 16949, etc.) requires the establishment of preventive procedures; therefore, the use of risk analysis methods, such as FMEA, is mandatory. This paper introduces the use of this technique in a critical process in the metal forming industry.

Federal Highway Revenue Estimation: Cost Allocation Perspective

As part of a report on key cost allocation factors prepared for FHWA, a federal highway revenue estimation methodology is presented. Cost allocation studies seek to compare cost-revenue ratios for different vehicle classes from the standpoint of equity (and efficiency). Such an analysis is meaningful only when the estimates of the payments made by each vehicle class and estimates of their cost responsibilities are reasonably accurate. However, on the revenue side, accurate estimates are difficult to generate since Federal Highway Trust Fund revenues are not directly collected from the consumers. The revenue estimation methodology used in the federal highway cost allocation study (1982) and the developments since then are outlined. The question of what improvements in revenue estimation are needed from a cost allocator's perspective is then addressed. Suggestions include identification of optimal levels of disaggregation of vehicle classes, creation of more accurate information systems, and stochastic forecasting models. There is a need to analyze the effect of inaccuracies in the basic data on the cost-revenue ratios for the vehicle classes. Also recommended is the use of risk analysis methods in forecasting, to help decision makers by providing information on the uncertainties involved. Changing transportation patterns, including the growth of intermodal transport, the diversion of highway revenues to the general budget, and the link between user taxes and investment expenditures, are some of the other issues that should be addressed in the future.