Use Of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Research Articles

Four Years Since COVID-19 Day Zero: A Time to Evaluate Past and Future Pandemic Control Policies and Practices in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Four years after the first case of COVID-19, the world is still determining how best to prevent and control the long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were employed at the start of the pandemic as the only available options, prior to effective vaccines and antiviral agents. The World Health Organization recommended dual vaccination for 70% worldwide as the threshold for a return to "normal" community life. Immunization rates needed to increase in all global regions, irrespective of socioeconomic status, necessitating more equitable access. During the pandemic, wealthier countries hoarded vaccine supplies even when their citizens were immunized. This highlights the already enormous difficulties in healthcare provision faced by low-income sub-Saharan African countries, which remain at risk as industrialized nations have progressed to a post-pandemic era. Thus, in addition to redoubling vaccination efforts public health policymakers should consider ongoing and future use of NPIs. In this narrative account, we advocate that various NPI practices should not be shelved; rather, more research is needed to evaluate their impact in parallel with booster vaccination. This especially applies to so-called "long COVID". Lessons learned from implementing best practices in resource-limited settings should be incorporated into preparedness guidelines for future infectious disease outbreaks.

Effects of COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions on pediatric hospital admissions in North Italian hospitals, 2017 to 2022: a quasi-experimental study interrupted time-series analysis.

The use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), such as lockdowns, social distancing and school closures, against the COVID-19 epidemic is debated, particularly for the possible negative effects on vulnerable populations, including children and adolescents. This study therefore aimed to quantify the impact of NPIs on the trend of pediatric hospitalizations during 2 years of pandemic compared to the previous 3 years, also considering two pandemic phases according to the type of adopted NPIs. This is a multicenter, quasi-experimental before-after study conducted in 12 hospitals of the Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, with NPI implementation as the intervention event. The 3 years preceding the beginning of NPI implementation (in March 2020) constituted the pre-pandemic phase. The subsequent 2 years were further subdivided into a school closure phase (up to September 2020) and a subsequent mitigation measures phase with less stringent restrictions. School closure was chosen as delimitation as it particularly concerns young people. Interrupted Time Series (ITS) regression analysis was applied to calculate Hospitalization Rate Ratios (HRR) on the diagnostic categories exhibiting the greatest variation. ITS allows the estimation of changes attributable to an intervention, both in terms of immediate (level change) and sustained (slope change) effects, while accounting for pre-intervention secular trends. Overall, in the 60 months of the study there were 84,368 cases. Compared to the pre-pandemic years, statistically significant 35 and 19% decreases in hospitalizations were observed during school closure and in the following mitigation measures phase, respectively. The greatest reduction was recorded for "Respiratory Diseases," whereas the "Mental Disorders" category exhibited a significant increase during mitigation measures. ITS analysis confirms a high reduction of level change during school closure for Respiratory Diseases (HRR 0.19, 95%CI 0.08-0.47) and a similar but smaller significant reduction when mitigation measures were enacted. Level change for Mental Disorders significantly decreased during school closure (HRR 0.50, 95%CI 0.30-0.82) but increased during mitigation measures by 28% (HRR 1.28, 95%CI 0.98-1.69). Our findings provide information on the impact of COVID-19 NPIs which may inform public health policies in future health crises, plan effective control and preventative interventions and target resources where needed.

Effect of school reopening on pediatric morbidity and mortality during the third epidemiological wave of COVID-19 in a Mexican state.

Determining the effect of reopening schools on pediatric SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection rates increased the need to share the experience of governments in many geographic regions for better future decision-making in similar health emergencies. Through a prospective study based on a population-based cohort, students from 18,988 schools in the State of Mexico who began returning to school were followed. Daily sanitation filters were implemented in each school and district liaisons were informed on a daily basis through a negative network. Identified cases were confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Simple case frequencies, percentages, and incidences of COVID-19 were estimated. State incidences were compared with the national incidence. A total of 3,586 cases were confirmed; 2,048 (57.1%) were children. Twenty-four (0.6%) were hospitalized for moderate to severe COVID-19; nine (37.5%) died, and only one was a schoolchild. From week 36, an average infection rate of 0.36 was observed. The highest infection rate in schoolchildren was observed in epidemiologic week 40 (1.01); from this week on, a decrease in the number of cases was observed until week 50. The use of non-pharmaceutical interventions has more advantages than limitations, as long as the strategies are homogeneous and properly implemented to ensure adequate control of infections.

The impact of word-of-mouth (WOM) on attitudes, behavioural intentions, and actual usage of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) among early and late adopters

PurposeThis study aims to examine how the theory of planned behaviour and technology acceptance theory can be used to understand the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The relationships between attitudes, behavioural intentions towards using NPIs, actual use of NPIs and word-of-mouth (WOM) were examined and compared between early and late adopters.Design/methodology/approachA survey was conducted to test the hypotheses with partial least squares structural equation modelling (n = 278).FindingsThe results indicate that relationships between attitudes, intentions and behavioural intentions were positive and significant in the whole data set – and that there were differences between the early and late adopters. WOM had no substantial relationship with actual usage and early adopters’ behavioural intentions.Originality/valueThis research gives a better sense of how WOM impacts attitudes, behavioural intentions and actual usage among early and late adopters of NPIs and highlights the effectiveness of WOM, especially among late adopters of NPIs. Furthermore, using the TAM allows us to make specific recommendations regarding encouraging the use of NPIs. A new three-stage communications model is introduced that uses early adopters as influencers to reduce the NPI adoption time by late adopters.

The unintended consequences of inconsistent closure policies and mobility restrictions during epidemics

BackgroundControlling the spread of infectious diseases―even when safe, transmission-blocking vaccines are available―may require the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), e.g., mask wearing, testing, limits on group sizes, venue closure. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries implemented NPIs inconsistently in space and time. This inconsistency was especially pronounced for policies in the United States of America (US) related to venue closure.MethodsHere, we investigate the impact of inconsistent policies associated with venue closure using mathematical modeling and high-resolution human mobility, Google search, and county-level SARS-CoV-2 incidence data from the USA. Specifically, we look at high-resolution location data and perform a US-county-level analysis of nearly 8 million SARS-CoV-2 cases and 150 million location visits, including 120 million church visitors across 184,677 churches, 14 million grocery visitors across 7662 grocery stores, and 13.5 million gym visitors across 5483 gyms.ResultsAnalyzing the interaction between venue closure and changing mobility using a mathematical model shows that, across a broad range of model parameters, inconsistent or partial closure can be worse in terms of disease transmission as compared to scenarios with no closures at all. Importantly, changes in mobility patterns due to epidemic control measures can lead to increase in the future number of cases. In the most severe cases, individuals traveling to neighboring jurisdictions with different closure policies can result in an outbreak that would otherwise have been contained. To motivate our mathematical models, we turn to mobility data and find that while stay-at-home orders and closures decreased contacts in most areas of the USA, some specific activities and venues saw an increase in attendance and an increase in the distance visitors traveled to attend. We support this finding using search query data, which clearly shows a shift in information seeking behavior concurrent with the changing mobility patterns.ConclusionsWhile coarse-grained observations are not sufficient to validate our models, taken together, they highlight the potential unintended consequences of inconsistent epidemic control policies related to venue closure and stress the importance of balancing the societal needs of a population with the risk of an outbreak growing into a large epidemic.

COVID-19 outbreak control strategies and their impact on the provision of essential health services in Ghana: An exploratory-sequential study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to substantial interruptions in critical health services, with 90% of countries reporting interruptions in routine vaccinations, maternal health care and chronic disease management. The use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdowns and self-isolation had implications on the provision of essential health services (EHS). We investigated exemplary COVID-19 outbreak control strategies and explored the extent to which the adoption of these NPIs affected the provision of EHS including immunization coverage and facility-based deliveries. Finally, we document core health system strategies and practices adopted to maintain EHS during the early phase of the pandemic. This study used an explanatory sequential study design. First, we utilized data from routine health management information systems to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the provision of EHS using interrupted time series models. Second, we explored exemplary strategies and health system initiatives that were adopted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 infections while maintaining the provision of EHS using in-depth interviews with key informants including policymakers and healthcare providers. The COVID-19 pandemic and the interventions that were implemented disrupted the provision of EHS. In the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic, Oral Polio and pentavalent vaccination coverage reduced by 15.2% [95% CI = -22.61, -7.87, p<0.001] and 12.4% [95% CI = 17.68, -7.13; p<0.001] respectively. The exemplary strategies adopted in maintaining the provision of EHS while also responding to the spread of infections include the development of new policy guidelines that were disseminated with modified service delivery models, new treatment and prevention guidelines, the use of telemedicine and medical drones to provide EHS and facilitate rapid testing of suspected cases. The implementation of different NPIs during the peak phase of the pandemic disrupted the provision of EHS. However, the Ministry of Health leveraged the resilient health system and deployed efficient, all-inclusive, and integrated infectious disease management and infection prevention control strategies to maintain the provision of EHS while responding to the spread of infections.

Association of Self-Reported COVID-19 Vaccination Status with COVID-19 Infection among Adult Long-Term Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Survivors

Hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) recipients experience significant morbidity and mortality from coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection. Data are limited regarding long-term HCT survivors' uptake of and experiences with COVID-19 vaccination and infection. This study aimed to characterize COVID-19 vaccination uptake, use of other prevention measures, and COVID-19 infection outcomes in adult HCT recipients at our institution. Between July 1, 2021, and June 30, 2022, long-term adult HCT survivors were surveyed regarding overall health, chronic graft-versus-host (cGVHD) status, and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations, prevention measures, and infections. Patients reported COVID-19 vaccination status, vaccine-related adverse effects, use of nonpharmaceutical prevention measures, and infections. Comparisons by response and vaccination status were performed using the chi-square test and Fisher exact test for categorical variables and the Kruskal-Wallis test for continuous variables. Of 4758 adult HCT survivors who underwent HCT between 1971 and 2021 and consented to participate in annual surveys, 1719 (36%) completed the COVID-19 module, and 1598 of 1705 (94%) reported receiving ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Severe vaccine-related adverse effects were infrequent (5%). Among respondents receiving an mRNA vaccine, completion of doses according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's vaccine recommendations at the time of survey return was 2 doses in 675 of 759 (89%), 3 doses in 610 of 778 (78%), and 4 doses in 26 of 55 (47%). Two hundred fifty respondents (15%) reported COVID-19 infection; 25 (10%) required hospitalization. Vaccinated respondents reported significantly higher uptake of household vaccination (1284 of 1404 [91%] versus 18 of 88 [20%]; P < .001) and the use of nonpharmaceutical interventions (P < .001). Among those vaccinated prior to infection, vaccinated respondents were significantly less likely to have contracted COVID-19 (85 of 1480 [6%] versus 130 of 190 [68%]; P < .001), as were their household members (149 of 1451 [10%] versus 85 of 185 [46%]; P < .001). Receipt of additional COVID-19 vaccine doses beyond the first dose was associated with a reduced risk of COVID-19 infection (odds ratio, .63; 95% confidence interval, .47 to .85; P = .002). Vaccination was well tolerated and associated with a lower risk of COVID-19 infection among HCT survivors and their household contacts. Vaccination and booster doses should be encouraged as part of a multifaceted approach in this high-risk population.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 on influenza incidence: A systematic review

Introduction Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the primary preventative measure to mitigate the COVID-19 burden. However, these NPIs have also altered the pattern and incidence of other respiratory pathogens. This review aims to explore the effects of NPIs used against COVID-19, on influenza incidence.Methods A systematic literature search was conducted in selected databases (PubMed, Medline, Embase). Documents that highlighted a change in influenza epidemiology during the COVID-19 pandemic and were linked to NPIs were included. The search covered articles from 1 January 2020 to 7 December 2022.Results This review included 13 studies reporting data from three different continents. A 14-100% decrease of influenza activity was observed since the enforcement of NPIs in early 2020.Conclusion This study suggests that the NPIs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have also significantly reduced influenza incidence. This is most likely because both coronavirus and influenza are transmitted through a similar route and the NPIs prevent this. The use of NPIs is suggested to overcome some burden of future influenza epidemics.

Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) for Population Health and Health Inequalities.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, governments around the world have adopted an array of measures intended to control the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, using both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs are public health interventions that do not rely on vaccines or medicines and include policies such as lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and travel restrictions. Although the intention was to slow viral transmission, emerging research indicates that these NPIs have also had unintended consequences for other aspects of public health. Hence, we conducted a narrative review of studies investigating these unintended consequences of NPIs, with a particular emphasis on mental health and on lifestyle risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCD): physical activity (PA), overweight and obesity, alcohol consumption, and tobacco smoking. We reviewed the scientific literature using combinations of search terms such as 'COVID-19', 'pandemic', 'lockdowns', 'mental health', 'physical activity', and 'obesity'. NPIs were found to have considerable adverse consequences for mental health, physical activity, and overweight and obesity. The impacts on alcohol and tobacco consumption varied greatly within and between studies. The variability in consequences for different groups implies increased health inequalities by age, sex/gender, socioeconomic status, pre-existing lifestyle, and place of residence. In conclusion, a proper assessment of the use of NPIs in attempts to control the spread of the pandemic should be weighed against the potential adverse impacts on other aspects of public health. Our findings should also be of relevance for future pandemic preparedness and pandemic response teams.

Decentralised adaptive-gain control for the SIS network epidemic model

This paper is concerned with the deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) network for epidemic spreading, where each node of the network represents a population and directed edges represent transmission pathways for the disease to spread between populations. Motivated by the use of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), e.g., physical distancing or mobility restrictions, to address outbreaks of novel infectious diseases, we propose a class of adaptive-gain controllers which are decentralised, being implemented independently at each node. The gains dynamically decrease over time and directly reduce the infection rates of the network at the node-level, representing an increase in NPIs for each population. We prove that for any SIS network, the adaptive-gain controllers asymptotically drive the network state to the disease-free state from any initial condition, and every gain is positive in the limit. We obtain upper bounds on the limiting gain values and the final reproduction number of the network, and conclude by proposing future research directions.

COVID-19 Model with High- and Low-Risk Susceptible Population Incorporating the Effect of Vaccines

It is a known fact that there are a particular set of people who are at higher risk of getting COVID-19 infection. Typically, these high-risk individuals are recommended to take more preventive measures. The use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the vaccine are playing a major role in the dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. We propose a COVID-19 model with high-risk and low-risk susceptible individuals and their respective intervention strategies. We find two equilibrium solutions and we investigate the basic reproduction number. We also carry out the stability analysis of the equilibria. Further, this model is extended by considering the vaccination of some non-vaccinated individuals in the high-risk population. Sensitivity analyses and numerical simulations are carried out. From the results, we are able to obtain disease-free and endemic equilibrium solutions by solving the system of equations in the model and show their global stabilities using the Lyapunov function technique. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the hospitals' imperfect efficacy can have a positive impact on the control of COVID-19. Finally, simulations of the extended model demonstrate that vaccination could adequately control or eliminate COVID-19.

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions targeted at the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of influenza-like illness in the UK Armed Forces.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as lockdown, social distancing and use of face coverings was adopted by the United Kingdom (UK) Armed Forces (AF) during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study assessed the impact of the use of NPIs on the incidence of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the UK AF. A longitudinal study design was adopted, and secondary data was analysed retrospectively. Clinical Read codes for ILI was used to generate data for flu seasons before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (September 2017 to April 2021). Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of reporting ILI was ~ 4% across all flu seasons. The count of ILI was 2.9%, 2.2% and 3.1% during 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 flu seasons respectively. During the COVID-19 pandemic, both the rate of reporting ILI (0.6%) and the count of ILI (0.5%) were significantly smaller (p < .001). The rate of reporting ILI was positively correlated with the count of ILI (r (2) = .97, p = .014). Influenza vaccination rate increased by 1.3% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination rate was negatively correlated with the rate of reporting ILI (r (2) = -.52, p = 0.24) and the count of ILI (r (2) = -.61, p = 0.19). However, this correlation was not significant. The use of NPIs was negatively correlated with the rate of reporting ILI (r (2) = -.99, p = < .001) and the count of ILI (r (2) = -.95, p = 0.026). The overall multiple regression performed was statistically significant (R2 = 0.94, F (1, 2) = 33.628, p = 0.028). The rate of reporting ILI significantly predicted the count of ILI (β = 0.609, p = 0.028) while vaccination rate did not significantly predict the count of ILI (β = -0.136, p = 0.677). The incidence of ILI in the UK AF was significantly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of NPIs and the rate of reporting ILI significantly reduced the count of ILI. Being vaccinated for influenza did not significantly reduce the count of ILI.

91 The impact of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions on hospital admissions and mortality from common causes of pediatric respiratory distress: a single center perspective

Abstract Background In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, jurisdictions around the world implemented policies to reduce COVID-19 transmission through public masking, travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential businesses. Collectively known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), these strategies reliably reduce the spread of COVID-19. International data suggests NPI also reduce hospitalizations for pediatric respiratory infections and their consequences, particularly asthma exacerbation. However, few Canadian studies have examined the impact of NPI on hospitalizations for common causes of pediatric respiratory distress. Objectives This study describes the impact of NPI on admissions for bronchiolitis, pneumonia, and asthma at a Canadian pediatric tertiary care centre. Design/Methods A retrospective chart review was conducted including all pediatric patients &amp;lt;18 years admitted to the general pediatric and pediatric intensive care units with bronchiolitis, pneumonia, or asthma. Data regarding diagnosis, length of hospitalization, and mortality were collected before (September 2016-March 2020) and in the 6 months after provincial NPI implementation (March 2020-September 2020). NPI were present throughout this period, however, specific measures varied due to evolving public health orders. Chi-squared testing was conducted to describe the impact of NPI on number of admissions, length of hospitalization, and mortality. Results Participants (n=1631) included 111 (6.8%) patients &amp;lt;1 month, 878 (53.8%) patients 1-23 months, 331 (20.3%) patients 24 months-4 years, and 311 (19.1%) patients ≥5 years. A mean of 205 patients were admitted every 6 months with respiratory distress (bronchiolitis, pneumonia, and/or asthma) prior to NPI implementation. During this timeframe, the 6-month mean admissions due to asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis were 48, 56, and 101, respectively. In the 6 months following NPI implementation, there were 56 admissions for respiratory distress, including 15 for asthma, 19 for pneumonia, and 22 for bronchiolitis. Mean length of stay increased following the implementation of NPI from 8.49 to 11.68 days, whereas 6-month mean mortality decreased from two to zero deaths. Results did not attain statistical significance (p&amp;gt;0.05). Conclusion Results suggest NPI reduce hospitalizations and mortality from bronchiolitis, pneumonia, and asthma. Given the similar seasonality of these conditions, periodic use of NPI beyond the COVID-19 pandemic may reduce pediatric morbidity and mortality from common causes of respiratory distress. However, additional research is needed to describe the relationship between NPI and length of hospitalization. Future studies should also examine the impact of NPI on other pediatric infectious diseases to better characterize their utility.

A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.

The role of user centric measures in the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

PurposeHealth authorities have introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with the aim of reducing the spread of viruses. Against the backdrop of social marketing, normative and utility theories, the purpose of the paper is to examine the relationships between user centric measures such as perceived effectiveness, user satisfaction, and value for effort on intentions to continue to use NPIs. Furthermore, the moderating role of value for effort on user satisfaction and, subsequently, intentions to continue to use NPIs was also considered.Design/methodology/approachA cross-sectional online survey was completed in British Columbia, Canada (N = 287). Analysis was done with partial least squares structural equation modeling.FindingsThe results show that the relationships between user centric measures are positive and significant on intentions to continue to use NPIs. Furthermore, value for effort moderated the relationship between user satisfaction and intentions to continue to use NPIs – but the relationship was negative. Thus, the higher values of the value for effort construct cause the relationship between user satisfaction and reuse intention to somewhat diminish.Originality/valueThe results confirm the positive and significant relationships between user centric measures in the context of the use of NPIs and introduce a new understanding of the effect of value for effort on the relationship between user satisfaction and intentions to use NPIs. This enables health officials to better understand how to encourage the use of NPIs.

Vaccine Coverage Associated With Ending a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Wave: A Retrospective Longitudinal Analysis.

ABSTRACTBackgroundTwo SARS-CoV-2 waves in Israel ended while a substantial number of individuals remained unvaccinated or partially vaccinated. The indirect protective effect of the first BNT162b2 vaccination campaign in Israel was evaluated between 22 December 2020 and 18 May 2021.MethodsThe daily percentage of new PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases among unvaccinated individuals was analyzed for trends. Major shifts were identified using piecewise linear regression analysis. At these shifts, the percentage of naturally vaccinated (past SARS-CoV-2 cases) and the percentage of actively vaccinated (by inoculation) individuals were weighted and summed to determine the percentage of natural and active vaccination (NAV).ResultsA first decline among unvaccinated individuals occurred during a lockdown period, when the percentage of NAV was 8.16%. The major decline occurred after the end of the lockdown when the percentage of NAV reached 52.05%. SARS-CoV-2 cases ultimately declined among unvaccinated individuals when the percentage of NAV reached 63.55%. During the study period, the Alpha variant was prevalent and the use of non-pharmaceutical intervention, including social distancing, existed to varying degrees.ConclusionsThe vaccination campaign played a major role in the decline of SARS-CoV-2 infection among unvaccinated individuals, leading to the end of the first 2021 SARS-CoV-2 wave (alpha variant) in Israel. The infection of unvaccinated individuals stopped when two thirds of the population were naturally or actively vaccinated. Any change in characteristics of the virus or the population can lead to a new outbreak.

Ageing, Emotion Regulation and Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

The process of ageing is usually defined in terms of physical and cognitive decline. A number of observations have been associated with the process of ageing such as, reduced productivity, a conservative nature, and a preference for tranquility. However, previous studies have reported interesting findings on increased emotional abilities among older adults which enable them to critically evaluate their life to find a meaningful purpose which thereby, accord to escalate their emotional stability. The current article describes the scope of existing literature examining emotion regulation in older adults. We first describe the emotion regulation in older adults through psycho-social perspectives. Following, we discuss the cognitive and neural correlates of emotion regulation in older adults. We then lay emphasis on the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions to enhance the quality of life including emotion regulation abilities in older adults.

Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Model in Ghana with Double-Dose Vaccination and Quarantine

The discovery of vaccines for COVID-19 has been helpful in the fight against the spread of the disease. Even with these vaccines, the virus continues to spread in many countries, with some vaccinated persons even reported to have been infected, calling for administration of booster vaccines. The need for continued use of nonpharmaceutical interventions to complement the administration of vaccines cannot therefore be overemphasized. This study presents a novel mathematical model to study the impact of quarantine and double-dose vaccination on the spread of the disease. The local stability analysis of the COVID-19-free and endemic equilibria is examined using the Lyapunov second technique. The equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable if ℛ0 < 1 and ℛ0 > 1, respectively. Besides other analytical results, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results established in the paper.

Controlling SARS-CoV-2 in schools using repetitive testing strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 remains a worldwide emergency. While vaccines have been approved and are widely administered, there is an ongoing debate whether children should be vaccinated or prioritized for vaccination. Therefore, in order to mitigate the spread of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants among children, the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still warranted. We investigate the impact of different testing strategies on the SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in a primary school environment, using an individual-based modelling approach. Specifically, we consider three testing strategies: (1) symptomatic isolation, where we test symptomatic individuals and isolate them when they test positive, (2) reactive screening, where a class is screened once one symptomatic individual was identified, and (3) repetitive screening, where the school in its entirety is screened on regular time intervals. Through this analysis, we demonstrate that repetitive testing strategies can significantly reduce the attack rate in schools, contrary to a reactive screening or a symptomatic isolation approach. However, when a repetitive testing strategy is in place, more cases will be detected and class and school closures are more easily triggered, leading to a higher number of school days lost per child. While maintaining the epidemic under control with a repetitive testing strategy, we show that absenteeism can be reduced by relaxing class and school closure thresholds.

Estimating unconfirmed COVID-19 infection cases and multiple waves of pandemic progression with consideration of testing capacity and non-pharmaceutical interventions: A dynamic spreading model

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has unique epidemiological characteristics that include presymptomatic and asymptomatic infections, resulting in a large proportion of infected cases being unconfirmed, including patients with clinical symptoms who have not been identified by screening. These unconfirmed infected individuals move and spread the virus freely, presenting difficult challenges to the control of the pandemic. To reveal the actual pandemic situation in a given region, a simple dynamic susceptible-unconfirmed-confirmed-removed (D-SUCR) model is developed taking into account the influence of unconfirmed cases, the testing capacity, the multiple waves of the pandemic, and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Using this model, the total numbers of infected cases in 51 regions of the USA and 116 countries worldwide are estimated, and the results indicate that only about 40% of the true number of infections have been confirmed. In addition, it is found that if local authorities could enhance their testing capacities and implement a timely strict quarantine strategy after identifying the first infection case, the total number of infected cases could be reduced by more than 90%. Delay in implementing quarantine measures would drastically reduce their effectiveness.