Use Of Macroprudential Policies Research Articles

Macroprudential policies, national culture, and bank systemic risk: A cross-country comparison

Using a sample of 872 listed banks worldwide from 2001 to 2020, this article presents an empirical analysis of the effects and mechanisms of macroprudential policies on preventing systemic risk. The research finds that (1) the use of macroprudential policies significantly reduces systemic risk. Macroprudential policies reduce bank credit risk and systemic risk by reducing banks operating risk and improving their asset quality. (2) The effect of macroprudential policies has cross-national heterogeneity in terms of the national culture. Power distance, uncertainty avoidance, and long-termism in the national culture dimension help enhance the inhibitory effect of macroprudential policies on systemic risk, while individualistic cultures reduce the effect of macroprudential policies. Starting from the fundamental goal of macroprudential policies of preventing systemic risk, this article provides a theoretical basis and practical inspiration for modern financial governance and maintaining financial stability.

Dampen macroeconomic volatility: a useful role of capital controls on international trade

ABSTRACT Capital controls may adversely affect international trade. This study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of capital controls for reducing macroeconomic volatilities and then mitigating their negative effects on international trade. Using quarterly data, we applied a dynamic panel approach to a sample of 26 countries over the period 2010–2020. By diversifying the estimation techniques and using different capital control indexes, our results show that a capital control policy supports international trade and reduces exchange rate and interest differentials volatilities. The impact of capital controls is asymmetric when considering the role of financial development, the cyclical behavior of capital controls, and the simultaneous use of macroprudential policies. This study raises some policy implications, particularly, the necessary coordination and adjustment of the macroeconomic policies and the importance of targeting long-lasting controls when applying a restrictive policy.

The interaction between domestic monetary policy and macroprudential policy in Israel

The global financial crisis (GFC) triggered the use of macroprudential policies imposed on the banking sector. Using bank-level panel data for Israel for the period 2004–2019, we find that domestic macroprudential measures changed the composition of bank credit growth but did not affect the total credit growth rate. Specifically, we show that macroprudential measures targeted at the housing sector moderated housing credit growth but tended to increase business credit growth. We also find that accommodative monetary policy surprises tended to increase bank credit growth before the GFC. We show that accommodative monetary policy surprises increased consumer credit when interacting with macroprudential policies targeting the housing market. Accommodative monetary policy interacted with nonhousing macroprudential measures to increase total credit.

Bank lending and small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to finance – Effects of macroprudential policies

This paper examines the impact of macroprudential policies on small and medium-sized firms' access to bank finance. To this end, we use data from a firm-level survey covering European Union (EU) countries between 2009 and 2017, as well as a recently published database on the use of macroprudential policies in EU countries, the Macroprudential Policies Evaluation Database (MaPPED), which allows us to separately consider the tightening and loosening macroprudential policy measures. We develop several macroprudential indices based on the target of the macroprudential instruments. The results reveal a significant relationship between macroprudential indices and firms' access to finance. The indices are mainly associated with limited access to bank credit for SMEs, taking different firm- and country-level characteristics into account. While use of macroprudential measures could lead to higher capitalisation and make the financial sector more resilient and reduce its risk exposure, this could also mean restricted lending to firms, especially smaller firms with fewer financing options and considerable reliance on bank credit.

The impact of macroprudential policies on capital flows in CESEE

In line with recent policy discussions on the use of macroprudential policies (MPPs) to respond to cross-border risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify which impact MPPs had on capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). This region experienced a substantial boom-bust cycle in capital flows amid the global financial crisis and policymakers had been quite active in adopting MPPs already before that crisis. To study the dynamic responses of capital flows to a tightening in the macroprudential environment, we propose a novel regime-switching factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model and include an intensity-adjusted macroprudential policy index to identify MPP shocks. Our results suggest that tighter MPPs translate into negative dynamic reactions of domestic private sector credit growth and gross capital inflow volumes in a majority of the countries analyzed. Level and volatility responses of capital inflows are often correlated positively, suggesting that if MPPs were successful in reducing capital inflows, they would also contribute to lower capital flow volatility. We also provide evidence that the effects of MPP tightening are in most cases stronger in an environment characterized by low interest rates, suggesting that MPPs would be more effective if conventional monetary policy were facing constraints.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TRILEMMA POLICY CHOICE IN THE PRESENCE OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES

This paper examines the effectiveness of the trilemma policy choice, in the presence of macroprudential policies in 10 emerging market economies. We address this issue due to the extensive use of macroprudential policies to maintain financial stability in the aftermath of global financial crisis. Our overall findings suggest that adoption of macroprudential policies with monetary policy helps to maintain macroeconomic stability in 6 out of 10 cases, and with capital account openness being effective only in three cases. Our findings suggest that the emerging economies’ policymakers can optimize the effectiveness of trilemma policy choice by giving more weightage to macroprudential policies along with exchange rate stability and monetary policy.

Can “Concerted” Macroprudential Policies Mitigate Cross‐border Contagion of Financial Risks? Evidence from China and Its Financially Connected Economies

AbstractWe construct a connected network between China and the economies that are financially linked to it, based on the network topology of variance decompositions, and measure the cross‐border contagion of financial risks among these economies. We then examine whether the concerted use of macroprudential policies mitigates the cross‐border contagion of financial risks. The empirical results show that the tightening of macroprudential policies, especially counter‐cyclical capital buffers and limits on credit growth, in economies with net spillover risk (e.g. the US and China), can reduce the cross‐border spillover of domestic financial risks to other economies. The concerted use of macroprudential policies can contribute to global financial stability. However, the tightening of “capital” macroprudential policy tools will increase domestic cross‐border absorption of financial risks. Hence, macroprudential regulation of cross‐border capital flows must be strengthened.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Links, Contagious Banking Crises, and Joint Use of Macroprudential Policies

In this study, we examine whether the joint use of macroprudential policies by countries that have strong financial or trade links can help slow the spread of a banking crisis from country to country. Research has shown that a financial crisis in one country is more likely to be “contagious” if that country has strong connections with other countries through trade or financial linkages. While macroprudential policies can be used to mitigate the risk of a financial crisis domestically, we find that the implementation of tighter macroprudential policies in closely linked countries can additionally help to lower the increases in real credit growth and house prices (known precursors to a crisis). As well, it can also lower the probability of a domestic banking crisis, even after controlling for these precursors, although this effect could take a couple of years to materialize. This paper sheds light on the potential for coordinated usage of macroprudential policies to help promote global financial stability.

Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands

AbstractThis paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro‐area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using quarterly bank‐level data on domestic lending in both countries for 2003–2018, we find that restrictive euro‐area monetary policy shocks reduce the growth of mortgage lending. We find evidence that stricter domestic prudential regulation mitigates this effect in Ireland, but not so in the Netherlands. There is some weak evidence for an international bank lending channel that can be mitigated by stricter lender‐based domestic prudential regulation.

Macroprudential Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze the use of macroprudential policies in a low interest rate environment, where an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint gives rise to aggregate demand externalities. We study this issue by using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with financial frictions and a monetary policy rule that is subject to the ZLB. We find that, in a low interest rate environment, the occasionally binding ZLB creates additional scope for macroprudential intervention. When the interest rate is high and the two policies can perfectly coordinate, the optimal policy prescriptions behave as if they were independent. This is, however, no more the case, when the interest rate is low and/or when monetary policy and macroprudential policy cannot be perfectly coordinating. This more complex policy environment calls for more policy coordination.

'Leaning Against the Wind', Macroprudential Policy and the Financial Cycle

Should monetary policy against financial stability risks? This has been a subject of fierce debate over the last decades. We contribute to the debate about leaning against the wind (LAW) along three lines. First, we evaluate the cost and benefits of LAW using the Svensson (2017) framework for the euro area and find that the costs outweigh the benefits. Second, we extend the framework to address a critique that Svensson does not consider the lower frequency financial cycle. Third, we use this extended framework to assess the costs and benefits of monetary and macroprudential policy. We find that macroprudential policy has net marginal benefits in addressing risks to financial stability in the euro area, whereas monetary policy has net marginal costs. This would suggest that an active use of macroprudential policies targeting financial stability risks would alleviate the burden on monetary policy to lean against the wind.

Mortgage Lending, Monetary Policy, and Prudential Measures in Small Euro-Area Economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands

This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using bank-level data on domestic lending in both countries during the period 2003-2018, we find that restrictive euro area monetary policy shocks reduce the growth of mortgage lending. We find evidence that stricter domestic prudential regulation mitigates this effect in Ireland, but not so in the Netherlands. There is weak evidence for an international bank lending channel.

Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy and the Financial Cycle

Should monetary policy lean against financial stability risks? This has been a subject of fierce debate over the last decades. We contribute to the debate about “leaning against the wind” (LAW) along three lines. First, we evaluate the cost and benefits of LAW using the Svensson (2017) framework for the euro area and find that the costs outweigh the benefits. Second, we extend the framework to address a critique that Svensson does not consider the lower frequency financial cycle. Third, we use this extended framework to assess the costs and benefits of monetary and macroprudential policy. We find that macroprudential policy has net marginal benefits in addressing risks to financial stability in the euro area, whereas monetary policy has net marginal costs. This would suggest that an active use of macroprudential policies targeting financial stability risks would alleviate the burden on monetary policy to “lean against the wind”. JEL Classification: E58, G01

Effectiveness of macroprudential policies in Central and Eastern European countries

This paper extends the available datasets on the use of macroprudential policies in CEE countries, and provides an econometric assessment of the effectiveness of these policies in mitigating financial stability risks associated with excessive credit growth before the global financial crisis. The model results imply that macroprudential policies were more effective in slowing credit to households than credit to the non-financial corporate sector, mainly because the latter had access to nonbank and cross-border credit in addition to domestic bank credit.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies

This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such 'contagion effects' can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries' use of macroprudential tools suggests that a 'coordinated' implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.

Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and 'Coordinated' Macroprudential Policies

This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such “contagion effects” can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries’ use of macroprudential tools suggests that a “coordinated” implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.

Leaning Against the Wind: Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Sectoral Growth

Use of macroprudential policies in recent years has gained relevance in different economies. As a result of the financial crisis in 2008, this instrument was useful in emerging economies to reduce the effects of the adverse international context. The relationship between financial intermediation and the real sector is positive, in response to shocks in productive credit the sectoral growth is 0.15pp in 2016. Likewise, the modification of the reserve requirement rate can provide or withdraw liquidity from the financial system, in the first case, the objective is to increase portfolio placement, which affects the development of productive sectors. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the effect of changes in the reserve requirement rateon sectoral growth in Bolivia, which was offset by the financial cycle because episodes of Credit Crunch affect the real sector (the economic cycle is amplified to the downside). The methodologies used are the Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RA) and Panel Autoregresive Vectors (Panel-VAR) and recursive versions of them. The positive effects of the macroprudential policy and changes in the position that this instrument had over time, depending on the financial cycle, Leaning Against the Wind. Reserve requirement rate decreases of the national currency has positive impact on sectoral growth and tests with recursive versions shows positive effects and increase of credit towards the sectoral activity.

Korea's Challenges Ahead-Lessons from Japan's Experience

This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.

Korea's Challenges Ahead-Lessons from Japan's Experience

This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea's demographic trends seem to track Japan's with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea's corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan's in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan's initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.

Coordinating macroprudential policies within the Euro area: The case of Spain

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, there is consensus on the need for macroprudential policies to promote financial stability. However, the optimal way to implement such policies in the Euro area is a question open to debate, given that countries have to coordinate. In this paper, we propose a two-country, two-sector monetary union dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with housing to analyze the optimal implementation of macroprudential policies in the Euro area. Currently, Spain is the only country within the EU that has not established a macroprudential regulator. We use Spain as a natural experiment to study the effects of a lack of coordination in the use of macroprudential policies in the European Monetary Union (EMU). We focus on a particular macroprudential policy, a rule regarding the loan-to-value ratio, which responds countercyclically to credit booms. We find that such a policy is welfare enhancing for the Euro area. Nevertheless, if one country does not implement the policy, but the rest of the EMU does, as in the current situation with Spain, this country still yields some benefits as a result of its partners' implementation of the policy because it gains from a more stable financial system without incurring any output costs. However, if all Euro countries actively implement the policy, the welfare gains for all of them are larger.