US Unconventional Monetary Policy Research Articles

The Economic Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy, Global Commodity Shocks, and Oil Price Shocks on ASEAN 3

This study examines the implications of the United States unconventional monetary policy, global commodity prices, and the oil price shock on monetary policy responses and economic growth in the ASEAN 3 countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The empirical evidence suggests that the shock from the United States unconventional monetary policy led to the change in ASEAN's monetary policy. The fluctuation of crude oil and global commodity prices considerably impacts ASEAN's monetary policy response 3. The Central Bank can use such evidence as a reference to alter monetary policy in reaction to the global oil price and the unconventional monetary policy of the United States. The government will also be able to foresee the impact of global oil and commodities prices and preserve ASEAN 3's economic growth.

Impact of the US unconventional monetary policy in times of crises on Vietnam

The study investigates the effects of the US unconventional monetary policy on the Vietnamese economy, focusing on the output and price index. Besides, the differences in the response of these indicators to the shock related to non-traditional tools implemented by the US in the Global Financial Crisis and during the pandemic crisis are also explored. By applying the Structural Vector Autoregressive model on the monthly dataset from January 2007 to April 2022, the results show that an expansionary monetary policy of the US by unconventional measures leads to a rise in the output and price index of Vietnam. In addition, risk-taking channels and portfolio rebalancing channels are important in the transmission of the US monetary policy to Vietnam, they cause booms in asset prices via the surge of capital flows. Moreover, another important finding is that the impact of US UMP on the Vietnamese economy during the Global Financial Crisis was generally two times higher than during the epidemic crisis.

Unconventional monetary policy and economic inequality

This paper evaluates the distributional effects of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP) implemented as an additional measure to confront recessions. In line with the literature, the results show that the UMP reduces the unemployment rate, moderately increases prices, and stabilizes financial conditions. Yet, it also increases income and wealth inequality, with a stronger effect on the latter. Central bank balance sheet policies tend to be the key measures that shape its general effects. The UMP raises capital income more than labor earnings, which leads to the relatively higher increase in income at the upper part of the distribution and as a result to the growth of income inequality. Also, the UMP increases stock prices more than house prices, which results in the relatively larger growth of wealth at the top end of the distribution, leading to the rise of wealth inequality. These results indicate the need for complementary fiscal policy measures.

Spillback effects of US unconventional monetary policy

This study examines the spillback effects of US forward guidance (FG) and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) policies based on a proxy structural vector autoregression model and structural scenario analysis. We use high-frequency asset price surprises to identify FG and LSAP shocks. We find that both FG and LSAP shocks have significant spillback effects on economic activity and inflation in the US. Geographically, spillbacks of US unconventional monetary policies materialize more for advanced economies than emerging market economies. In addition, we find that spillbacks materialize through the exchange rate channel, the Tobin’s q channel, and the cash flow channel.

The Spillover Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy on the Taiwanese Economy

Due to the severity of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the United States Federal Reserve aggressively lowered the policy rate to zero and adopted several “unconventional” monetary policies, including “Quantitative Easing (QE).” The literature has long suggested that US monetary policies had strong spillover effects on foreign countries. Accordingly, the governor of Taiwan's central bank, Dr. Fai-Nan Perng, expressed strong concerns about such ripple effects of US policy on the Taiwanese economy. This paper follows Ammer et al. (2016) to use the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy announcements to support the claim that US monetary policy has significant impacts on the Taiwanese economy and financial markets. Also, the spillover effects of pre-crisis “traditional” monetary policies are compared with the spillover effects from implementing “unconventional” policies during and post-crisis. The results show that US monetary policies exert significant impacts on the Taiwanese economy. Finally, we discuss the response of Taiwan's central bank to these spillover effects.

IMPACT OF US UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY ON ITS BALANCE OF TRADE

IMPACT OF US UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY ON ITS BALANCE OF TRADE

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP)—frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies, using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data. Blinder (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Rev 92(6): 465–479, 2010) argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads, such as term and risk premiums. Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence, we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP: the mortgage and term spreads. Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries, our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risk-taking behavior of investors. This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world. The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures. QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread. Furthermore, the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

Spillover Effects of US Unconventional Monetary Policy: (Evidence from Selected Asian Countries)

In this study, we evaluate the impact of US monetary policy between 2008 and 2018 (after implementation of quantitative easing policy) on assets, bonds, exchange rates of selected East Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, and Thailand). Our finding emphasized the significant role of US monetary policy on the East Asia financial markets especially in the case of South Korea. Results show that the US Treasury bill spread had the long run and US corporate spread had the short run effects on the asset markets of these countries. More specifically, sovereign yields respond significantly to US term spreads and stock prices respond largely to US corporate spread. The responses of exchange rate and house prices to US monetary policy are significant but attenuate.

US UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON US INCOME

US UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON US INCOME

Spillover effects of the US monetary policy on the Indian trilemma

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of the US unconventional monetary policy surprises on the management of trilemma in India.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses the event study approach along with OLS and MANOVA to examine the impact.FindingsThe results validate the existence of trilemma in India for the period from October 2008 to December 2017. The results also show that monetary policy independence still exists in India in the wake of greater spillover effects during the Federal Open Market Committee announcement days. The spillover effects on USD-INR exchange rates and capital flows are found to be statistically significant. The MANOVA results show that the trilemma in India is influenced by around 20% by the changes in the US monetary policy.Originality/valueThe above approach of event study combined with MANOVA in this subject area has not been used before to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Further, there are only a few studies that exist on the spillover effects of the US monetary policy actions on the management of trilemma in India.

Spillover impact of the US unconventional monetary policy and uncertainties on stock-bond correlations

This paper investigates the spillover impact of US unconventional monetary policy and uncertainty factors on the time-varying co-movements between the US stock market and 14 advanced countries? bond markets, as based on monthly data from January 2002, to October 2015, and utilising the conditional nonlinear quantile regression approach. The empirical results reveal that US unconventional monetary policy has an asymmetric positive effect on stockbond market co-movements, with a nonlinear effect in France and Denmark and a strong effect in the UK and Finland. Further, US bond market uncertainty has heterogeneous effects on stock-bond market co-movements, with a nonlinear effect in France and Denmark and a strong effect in Finland and Sweden. In addition, default risk spread positively influences stock-bond market co-movements across most countries for all quantiles. In contrast, stock-bond market comovements negatively and symmetrically respond to the US stock market uncertainty in most countries. Finally, stock-bond co-movements exhibit mixed responses to US economic policy uncertainty across countries. Our results have valuable implications for international investors who allocate capital across developed countries? stock and bond markets. Our findings provide important information for financial communities with regard to diversification and hedging.

The Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Normalization in the Philippines A Capital Flow Perspective

The Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Normalization in the Philippines A Capital Flow Perspective

Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure

Abstract No-arbitrage dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia, but are beset by empirical challenges. I propose augmenting DTSMs with overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to better estimate the decomposition along the term structure at daily frequencies. A Gaussian affine DTSM, augmented with 3 to 24-month OIS rates, generates estimates of US expectations that closely correspond to survey-implied measures out to a 10-year horizon and are more stable across sub-samples, compared to existing models. In addition, I provide narrative evidence, in the form of an event study around US unconventional monetary policy announcements, to further exemplify the benefits from OIS augmentation.

The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries

This paper aims to trace the monthly responses of equity prices, long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in Asian developing markets to the US unconventional monetary policy (UMP). The main research question is to explore whether UMP shocks exist in those markets. We also consider the differences in the mean responses of those asset prices between traditional and non-traditional monetary policy phases. To address such concerns, we employ a panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables (Panel VARX) model and estimate the model by the least-squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator in three different periods spanning from 2004M2 to 2018M4. The first finding is that UMP shocks from the US are associated with a surge in equity prices, a decline in long-term interest rates, and an appreciation of currencies in Asian developing markets. In contrast, the conventional monetary policy shocks from the US seem to exert adverse effects on these recipient countries. These empirical results suggest that the policymakers in Asian developing countries should cautiously take into account the spillover effects from the US unconventional monetary policy once it is executed.

Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

We investigate unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy using shadow interest rates to capture policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model for Canada - a useful case where foreign shocks can be proxied by the U.S. alone. We estimate that during the ZLB period, on average, Canadian unconventional monetary policy increased output by 0.13 percent, while US unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output by 1.2 percent on average. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of domestic unconventional monetary policy and the strong spillovers from foreign unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy.

US and EU unconventional monetary policy spillover on BRICS financial markets: an event study

This paper examines the effects of monetary authorities in Europe and US unconventional policy announcements on emerging stock markets (BRICS). An event study methodology is used to analyse the impact on the sectors of interest: consumer, financials, and materials. The analysed abnormal returns are significant during some events and are also dependent on the announcing central bank authority, as well as the sector and country investigated, linking the announcements to spillover effects in those countries. In terms of differing magnitude effects regarding the announcements of the central banks, no significant pattern was found. However, magnitudes seem to be unexpectedly, but not always significantly, higher during FED statements.

Taper Tantrums: Quantitative Easing, Its Aftermath, and Emerging Market Capital Flows

Abstract This paper examines the spillover effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on emerging market capital flows and asset prices. Affine term structure model estimates show that U.S. monetary policy shocks, identified with high-frequency Treasury futures data, represent revisions to expected short-term yields and term premia, especially during the UMP period. The policy shocks exhibit sizable effects on U.S. holdings of emerging market assets. These effects disproportionately manifest through valuation changes versus physical flows, are more pronounced for equity relative to bond markets, and are asymmetric between the quantitative easing and tapering periods, with flows more important during the unwinding.

Impact of monetary policy on the Indian stock market: Does the devil lie in the detail?

Although the link between the stock market and monetary policy is nebulous in the Indian context, it is perceived to be significant in popular perception. Towards explaining this disconnect, we probe the impact of Indian and US monetary policy announcements on disaggregated sectoral stock indices using the identification through heteroscedasticity approach. Our findings suggest differential impact of monetary policy on stocks across sectors. Illustratively, in terms of monetary policy surprises, the impact on the stocks of banking and financial services as well as the realty sector turns out to be significant. In contrast, sectors like media, metal, pharmaceuticals, information technology or fast moving consumer goods are found to be unresponsive. Interestingly, US unconventional monetary policy (quantitative easing) measures are found to have an impact on fast moving consumer goods and the media sector. These findings are attributed to: (1) dominance of the bank lending channel; (2) predominance of public sector vis-a-vis private banks; (3) significant influence of monetary policy on demand for housing and automobiles; (4) relative ineffectiveness of the asset-price channel of monetary transmission; and (5) sector-specific affects arising out of financial liberalisation.

A Large-Dimensional Factor Analysis of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases

This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model. In particular, an unconventional expansionary monetary policy shock is identified as a shock that increases the Federal Reserve's market share of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and leads to an improvement in the real economy and improved credit conditions.I find that an unconventional monetary policy shock significantly drives down the long-term interest rate spread and the credit spread, and improves both the financial market conditions and the commercial and industrial loans activity. Moreover, the impact on the real economy is significant.The roughly $2 trillion purchases of mortgage backed securities by the Federal Reserve Bank avoided a severe downturn according to estimates from a counterfactual analysis.

US non-linear causal effects on global equity indices in Normal times versus unconventional eras

This paper examines global spillover Quantitative Easing (QE) impacts of US on stock market indices by employing apart from a classical Granger causality, also a non-linear quantile regression approach for detecting causality on the tails of the stock indices’ distributions. Before US unconventional monetary policies, the non-linear causal relationship between the Fed’s balance sheet and stock markets is found to be not significant for most indices over the middle level of quantiles, whereas significant causal relationships are present in tails. There is non-linear evidence that the Fed’s assets were mainly influenced by US, Latin American, Australian and some Asian indices while the other stock indices did not Granger cause balance sheet enlargement for any quantile interval before 2008. Nevertheless, almost all domestic and foreign stock indices are found to exert feedback effects during US QE. We argue that US total assets exert non-linear causality towards all stock indices under scrutiny at least at one level of quantile and tighter links of the Fed mainly with advanced economies are found, as impacts on the upper quantile are stronger during US QE.