US Mountain Research Articles

Isolated Optic Neuritis: Etiology, Characteristics, and Outcomes in a US Mountain West Cohort.

The diagnosis and treatment of autoimmune optic neuritis (ON) has improved with the accessibility and reliability of aquaporin-4 (AQP4) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) antibody testing, yet autoantibody-negative ON remains common. This study describes the demographic, clinical, and outcome data in patients with isolated ON across the pediatric and adult cohort. A retrospective chart review of University of Utah Health patients with the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code of ICD-9 377.30 (ON unspecified), ICD-9 377.39 (other ON), or ICD-10 H46 (ON) and at least 2 ophthalmologic evaluations were conducted between February 2011 and July 2023. Only isolated cases of ON without other brain or spinal demyelinating lesions were evaluated. Differences in demographic and clinical characteristics between AQP4, MOG, and Other-ON were determined. Of the 98 patients (15 children and 83 adults), 9 (9.2%) were positive for AQP4-IgG and 35 (35.7%) tested positive for MOG-IgG. Fifty-four were classified into Other-ON, of which 7 (13.0%) had recurrence or new demyelinating lesions during a median follow-up of 12.5 months-2 were ultimately diagnosed with recurrent isolated ON (RION), 1 with chronic relapsing inflammatory ON (CRION), 2 with multiple sclerosis, 1 with collapsin response-mediator protein (CRMP)-5-ON, and 1 with seronegative neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder. Four patients were treated with long-term immunosuppressive therapy. No patients with RION or CRION had preceding infections; they had first recurrences of ON within 2 months. At presentation, AQP4-ON (75%) and MOG-ON (48.8%) had more severe vision loss (visual acuity <20/200) than Other-ON (23.2%, P = 0.01). At the 1-month follow-up, 93.0% of patients with MOG-ON and 89.3% of patients with Other-ON demonstrated a visual acuity ≥20/40, compared with only 50% of patients with AQP4-ON (P < 0.01). By the last follow-up, 37.5% of the AQP4-ON still exhibited visual acuity <20/40, including 25% who experienced severe vision loss (visual acuity <20/200). By contrast, over 95% of patients with MOG-ON and Other-ON maintained a visual acuity of ≥20/40. In our cohort, over a quarter of pediatric cases presented with simultaneous bilateral ON, 40% had a preceding infection, and 44.4% initially presented with a visual acuity <20/200. Two pediatric cases had recurrence, and both were MOG-ON. By their last follow-up, all pediatric cases had achieved a visual acuity of 20/40 or better. In addition, pediatric cases were more likely to exhibit disc edema compared with adult cases (100% vs 64%, P < 0.01). Despite recent advances in identification and availability of testing for AQP4-IgG and MOG-IgG, over half of patients who presented with isolated ON remained with an "idiopathic" diagnostic label. As more than 1 in 10 patients with AQP4-IgG and MOG-IgG negative ON experienced recurrence or develop new demyelinating lesions, clinicians should provide anticipatory guidance and closely monitor for potential long-term outcomes. In addition, it is crucial to re-evaluate the diagnosis in cases of poor recovery, ON recurrence, and the emergence of new neurological symptoms, as ON can often be the initial presentation of other conditions.

A Mixed Method Study to Explore How Maintenance Personnel Can Enhance Wildfire Smoke Resilience at Long-Term Care Facilities in the US Mountain West

Wildfire activity is increasing around the world, concurrent with climate change, and mitigation strategies for protecting vulnerable populations are desperately needed. Because inhaled particles are deleterious to respiratory health, particularly among older adults with co-morbidities, we engaged maintenance personnel working in long term care facilities located in the Western US. Our objective was to identify opportunities to build resilience during wildfire smoke events. We implemented a virtual workshop that addressed wildfire smoke health impacts as well as strategies to assess and maintain indoor air quality. A total of 24 maintenance personnel attended the virtual workshop and 14 participated in a quantitative survey. Workshop attendees found value in the material and there was enthusiasm for educational resources and enhancing indoor air quality. Four months later, four maintenance staff participated in a follow-up interview. Our qualitative assessment revealed the following themes: awareness and prioritization, application of knowledge, barriers, and educational resources. Access to real-time actionable air quality data was a consistent feature across these themes. Maintenance personnel could play a key role in a facility’s ability to prepare for and respond to wildfire smoke events, and this study highlights potential challenges and opportunities to involving them in resilience building strategies.

NSP-02 Clinical trial enrollment at a national cancer institute cancer center in the US Mountain West

NSP-02 Clinical trial enrollment at a national cancer institute cancer center in the US Mountain West

Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West.

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

Determinants of Canadian and US mountain bike tourists’ site preferences: examining the push–pull relationship

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to examine the travel behaviors, travel motivations, and site preferences of Canadian and US mountain bikers to better understand the determinants of destination attractiveness during mountain bike-specific travel. An online questionnaire was distributed through social media of Canadian and US mountain bike clubs to collect data. A total of 1346 responses were collected, however, responses with missing data or from outside of Canada and US were deleted, resulting in a sample of N = 720. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and multiple regression analysis. EFA analysis of the 41 pull items extracted seven pull factors consisting of climate, trail conditions, natural setting, information sources, trail features, tourism infrastructure, and entertainment options. EFA analysis of the 20 push items extracted five push factors comprised of stimulus-avoidance, adventure experiences, novelty, competency-mastery, and social encounters. Multiple regression analysis revealed that push factors were correlated with pull factors, indicating that travel push motives and destination pull factors interact to form a mountain bike tourists’ perception of destination attractiveness. The findings offer recommendations for developing and marketing a mountain bike-specific travel destination.

Streamflow data used in manuscript titled Diverse Physical Processes Drive Upper-Tail Flood Quantiles in the US Mountain West

Streamflow data used in manuscript titled Diverse Physical Processes Drive Upper-Tail Flood Quantiles in the US Mountain West

Future fire-driven landscape changes along a southwestern US elevation gradient

Over the twenty-first century, the combined effects of increased fire activity and climate change are expected to alter forest composition and structure in many ecosystems by changing postfire successional trajectories and recovery. Southwestern US mountain ecosystems contain a variety of vegetation communities organized along an elevation gradient that will respond uniquely to changes in climate and fire regime. Moreover, the twentieth-century fire exclusion has altered forest structure and fuel loads compared to their natural states (i.e., without fire suppression). Consequently, uncertainties persist about future vegetation shifts along the elevation gradient. In this study, we simulated future vegetation dynamics along an elevation gradient in the southwestern US comprising pinyon-juniper woodlands, ponderosa pine forests, and mixed-conifer forests for the period 2000–2099, to quantify the effects of future climate conditions and projected wildfires on species productivity and distribution. While we expected to find larger changes in aboveground biomass, species diversity and species-specific abundance at low elevation due to warmer and drier conditions, the largest changes occurred at high elevation in mixed-conifer forests and were caused by wildfire. The largest increase in high-severity and large fires were recorded in this vegetation type, leading to high mortality of the dominant species, Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa, which are not adapted to fire. The decline of these two species reduced biomass productivity at high elevation. In ponderosa pine forests and pinyon-juniper woodlands, fewer vegetation changes occurred due to higher abundance of well-adapted species to fire and the lower fuel loads mitigating projected fire activity, respectively. Thus, future research should prioritize understanding of the processes involved in future vegetation shifts in mixed-conifer forests in order to mitigate both loss of diversity specific to high-elevation forests and the decrease in biomass productivity, and thus carbon storage capacity, of these ecosystems due to wildfires.

Rebellion, Gender Roles and Discourses, and Historical Memories of War and Peace

Rebellion, Gender Roles and Discourses, and Historical Memories of War and Peace Sandie Holguín and Jennifer Davis One of the pleasures of editing historical writing is that one begins to see common themes emerge among articles that span vast temporal and geographical distances. What links women who appear in late medieval Flemish chronicles to those who emerge in interwar Italian and Turkish women's novels? What traits do nineteenth-century US women mountain climbers and twentieth-century "Monuments Men" share? Conversely, as two articles here reveal, historical actors who took part in similar events might bear little resemblance to one another. Did women who joined transnational peace organizations really share similar goals or the means of attaining them? This issue of the JWH explores these historical questions. The first two articles compel us to mine seemingly problematic sources for information about rebellious women. Lisa Demets', "Spies, Instigators, and Troublemakers: Gendered Perceptions of Rebellious Women in Late Medieval Flemish Chronicles" and Kara Peruccio's, "Bad Romance: Toxic Masculinity, Love, and Heartbreak in Interwar Italian and Turkish Women's Novels, 1923–1932" reveal how written works that historians have traditionally ignored as unreliable, like chronicles and novels, contain insights into both women's rebellious behavior and the forces that try to tame it. Demets employs a close reading of late medieval chronicles from Bruges to understand women's violent participation in medieval revolts. She dispenses with the idea that chronicles are less reliable than administrative sources or that they provide historians with only misogynistic literary tropes. Demets demonstrates that these tropes simultaneously reflected late medieval political ideology—Flemish urban men's anxieties about networks of rebels and women's place among them—and recounted women's real political activities and rebellious behavior in that period. Peruccio, in contrast, writes about four women novelists who used the romance novel genre to examine women's transgressive ideas and behaviors in the context of oppressive authoritarian regimes in the European interwar period. Comparing writers from two countries and regimes that the author admits are rarely likened to one another—Fascist Italy and Kemalist Turkey—Peruccio tries to uncover the strategies that two Italian and two Turkish women authors used to critique their respective regimes, especially concerning gender relations and toxic masculinity. In these non-traditional historical sources, Italian and Turkish women documented their compatriots' affective and material experiences during times of state-enforced misogyny. They probed men's [End Page 7] verbal abuse and sexual violence, society's expectations of female docility, and women's chastity as the measure of the family's always-precarious honor. Employing the term "hidden transcripts," the documentary material that reveals quiet revolts against the status quo, Peruccio exposes how these women authors experienced life under authoritarian rule and battled the toxic masculinity that sprung from it. Masculinity does not have to be toxic, but it determines normative behavior in many places, and it confers certain privileges. Barbara Cutter's "'A Feminine Utopia': Mountain Climbing, Gender, and Women's Rights in Nineteenth-Century America" explores how women who engaged in behaviors that western societies ordinarily deemed masculine, like mountain climbing, opened up possibilities for women to partake in activities once denied them. Cutter focuses on late-nineteenth-century US mountain climbing clubs that admitted both men and women members. Those clubs that welcomed women mountain climbers were also predisposed to think that if women could handle the physical and mental difficulties of mountain climbing, then they were also likely to share the "manly" traits of autonomy and independence. These mountain climbing men and women created a "feminine utopia" of egalitarianism on the mountain tops and hope for an egalitarian world in the flatlands. As women proved themselves on the mountaintops, Cutter argues, they paved the path for Americans to accept women's suffrage as a natural extension of these women's capabilities. If these female mountaineers could exhibit independence in the outdoors, could it be that even more women were capable of exhibiting the mental toughness to participate as full citizens in the public sphere? These mountain climbers certainly thought so. Discourses of masculinity are highly malleable, of course, and they can serve to reveal as much as hide...

A case study of the US mountain bike tourism market

Communities and regions throughout the United States are investing in the development and enhancement of requisite resources to leverage the growth of mountain bike tourism. However, an understanding of mountain bike tourists’ demographics, travel patterns, trip behaviors, and expenditures is lacking, thereby hampering product and market development efforts. The purpose of this study was to explore the demographics, travel preferences, and travel behaviors of US mountain bike tourists. Through an online survey hosted on a popular mountain bike website, a sample of US mountain bike tourists ( N = 810) was gathered. Data revealed that mountain bike tourists are predominately middle-aged affluent males who take an average of five short-break trips annually of about 400 miles per trip during the spring and summer months, and in the process spend approximately US$400 per trip. Stemming from the results, implications for mountain bike tourism development are discussed.

Gun Retailers' Willingness to Provide Gun Storage for Suicide Prevention.

Objectives: We examined factors grounded in the theory of planned behavior that influence gun retailers' willingness to provide temporary, voluntary firearm storage for suicide prevention. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of gun retailers in the US mountain west. Analyses included descriptive statistics and ordered logistic regression. Results: Ninety-five gun retailers responded to the survey (25% response rate) and 67.6% (95% CI: 59.6, 75.6) stated that they would be very or somewhat likely to provide temporary gun storage. Firearm retailers who agreed with the statements: "Our store can be an important part of the effort to improve gun safety in my community" (OR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.14) and that offering storage provided "The chance to be seen as a positive member of the community" (OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.00, 2.22) were more likely to state that they would be willing to provide storage. Conclusions: Firearm retailers are potentially important storage partners for means safety and suicide prevention efforts. Additional research and practice innovations are needed to assess gun retailers' willingness to provide gun storage and partner on suicide prevention efforts in other geographic regions.

Law Enforcement Agencies' Perceptions of the Benefits of and Barriers to Temporary Firearm Storage to Prevent Suicide.

To examine the perceived benefits of and barriers to law enforcement agencies providing increased access to voluntary and temporary firearm storage. We surveyed 448 police chiefs and sheriffs in 8 US Mountain West states about firearm storage practices, benefits of and barriers to storage, and related attitudes and beliefs. Data collection occurred during the spring and summer of 2016. Nearly three quarters of agencies reported that they are already providing storage and perceive relatively few barriers in doing so. Agency characteristics were not associated with current provision of firearm storage. Among the barriers identified included state laws, limited space, training needs, and community perceptions. Benefits of storage included being perceived positively by the community and supporting health care workers. Engaging with law enforcement agencies in suicide prevention efforts and addressing their perceived barriers to providing temporary firearm storage have promise as part of a comprehensive suicide prevention approach.

Discursive moments: Reframing deliberation and decision-making in alternative futures landscape ecological planning

Alternative Futures (AF) landscape ecological planning integrates scientific inquiry and findings into plausible futures that can shape and inform decisions on public policy. AF theorists typically present an AF process in which expert deliberation about technically possible futures is separate from political decision-making about desirable or socially acceptable futures. This paper offers an alternative interpretation of Alternative Futures. It asks whether crucial decision-making might take place prior to direction from elected officials. Is it possible to identify such decisions embedded in the AF planning process? Based on analysis of AF literature we reframe the categories of action in the process of AF planning as a series of ‘Discursive Moments’ in which technical possibilities interweave with more overtly political decision-making throughout the ecological planning process. Each Discursive Moment impacts all subsequent phases of the process, as well as the eventual real world outcomes.The concept of Discursive Moments is investigated through two case studies in the US Mountain West, selected to represent two contrasting planning approaches. Evidence from documentary analysis and key informant interviews elucidates the nature of both deliberative and decision-making work during each Discursive Moment. We conclude that the concept of Discursive Moments a) draws attention to the constant interplay between deliberative discussion and decision-making throughout the AF planning process more overtly than is found in previous literature, b) identifies critical decisions early in the process that are under-examined in previous literature, c) proposes a preliminary checklist of decisions that require deliberation during each Discursive Moment, d) reframes the competence of the AF planning team by adding the skills of mediating between deliberation and decision-making, and e) provides valuable information to institutions and decision-makers considering AF approaches.

Altitude and Variable Effects on Infant Mortality in the United States

To explore whether altitude has different effects on infant mortality from newborn respiratory distress, nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage, and necrotizing enterocolitis. Infants born in the US Mountain Census Division (AR, CO, ID, NV, NM, UT, and WY) had lower mortality from newborn respiratory distress (p < 0.001, mortality rate ratios [MRR] = 0.5 for non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites and 0.6 for Hispanic whites) relative to infants born elsewhere in the United States, while Mountain Division non-Hispanic white infants had significantly higher mortality from nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage (MRR = 1.3 [1.1, 1.6] p < 0.001). After adjustment for state average birth weight, gestational age, and income inequality, a statistically significant, inverse association remained between state average altitude and non-Hispanic white infant mortality from newborn respiratory distress. County altitude (3058 counties in 9 categories from ≤0 to ≥7000 feet) was negatively correlated with newborn respiratory distress (r = -0.91, p < 0.001) and necrotizing enterocolitis (r = -0.81, p = 0.006) at ≤0 to ≥7000 feet and positively correlated with nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage at ≤0 to 6000-6999 feet (r = 0.78, p = 0.02). These data show variable cause-specific effects of altitude on infant mortality. Analytic epidemiologic research is needed to confirm or refute the hypotheses generated by these descriptive data.

Managing hazards of the make-buy decision in the face of radical technological change

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to consider the management of hazards arising from the make-buy choice in the face of radical technological change. This sourcing choice can lead to distinctive exchange and hierarchical hazards. This study’s main interest is in investigating the research question “How can firms reduce those distinctive exchange and hierarchical hazards arising from the make-buy sourcing strategy when dealing with radical technological change?”Design/methodology/approachThe author develops hypotheses that the in-house retention of outsourced component knowledge will likely reduce exchange hazards arising from the buy strategy choice. And prior exploratory technological experience will likely reduce hierarchical hazards arising from the make strategy choice. The author explores the US mountain bicycle industry from 1980 to 1992 to test the developed hypotheses. For endogeneity arising from the make-buy sourcing decision, the author uses Heckman’s two-stage switching regression model.FindingsThe major findings are that the in-house retention of outsourced component knowledge and prior exploratory technological experience is distinctive moderating factors improving performance of a buy strategy and a make strategy, respectively.Originality/valueSince the extant literature tends to focus on which of the two sourcing strategies provides the greatest performance advantages in the face of radical technological change, there is a strong implication to suggest that if a firm performs poorly with one sourcing decision, the firm should switch to an alternative one. Different from the expositions of the literature, this study elevates the understanding regarding how firms can improve the performance of their current sourcing orientation rather than whether they should switch from one sourcing strategy to another.

Inconsistent reproductive isolation revealed by interactions between Catostomus fish species.

Interactions between species are central to evolution and ecology, but we do not know enough about how outcomes of interactions between species vary across geographic locations, in heterogeneous environments, or over time. Ecological dimensions of interactions between species are known to vary, but evolutionary interactions such as the establishment and maintenance of reproductive isolation are often assumed to be consistent across instances of an interaction between species. Hybridization among Catostomus fish species occurs over a large and heterogeneous geographic area and across taxa with distinct evolutionary histories, which allows us to assess consistency in species interactions. We analyzed hybridization among six Catostomus species across the Upper Colorado River basin (US mountain west) and found extreme variation in hybridization across locations. Different hybrid crosses were present in different locations, despite similar species assemblages. Within hybrid crosses, hybridization varied from only first generation hybrids to extensive hybridization with backcrossing. Variation in hybridization outcomes might result from uneven fitness of hybrids across locations, polymorphism in genetic incompatibilities, chance, unidentified historical contingencies, or some combination thereof. Our results suggest caution in assuming that one or a few instances of hybridization represent all interactions between the focal species, as species interactions vary substantially across locations.

Heterogeneity in Preferences for Woody Biomass Energy in the US Mountain West

Millions of acres of public forest in the US Mountain West are substantially degraded and are in need of restoration. Mechanized restoration treatments can improve forest health and reduce the likelihood of severe wildfire. These treatments produce some timber, and substantial amounts of forest residues that can be used to generate renewable energy and displace fossil fuels. Using the choice modeling method, this study investigates social preferences for generation of energy with woody biomass produced by restoration treatments on public forests in the Mountain West. Both multinomial logit and latent class logit (LCL) models are fit to the data and used to estimate marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for increased amounts of woody biomass energy generation and important associated co-benefits and costs. Positive and statistically significant MWTP is found for the number of homes powered with wood, the extent of healthy forests, avoiding increases in the number of large wildfires, and local air quality. Significant heterogeneity was found in respondent preferences for the attributes. The heterogeneity can be explained in part by sociodemographic and attitudinal characteristics of respondents. The LCL revealed four classes of respondents with distinct preferences, revealing conflicting viewpoints toward forest management for woody biomass energy generation.

Impacts of increasing aridity and wildfires on aerosol loading in the intermountain Western US

Feedbacks between climate warming, land surface aridity, and wildfire-derived aerosols represent a large source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, long-term observations of aerosol optical depth, surface level aerosol loading, fire-area burned, and hydrologic simulations are used to show that regional-scale increases in aridity and resulting wildfires have significantly increased summertime aerosol loading in remote high elevation regions of the Intermountain West of the United States. Surface summertime organic aerosol loading and total aerosol optical depth were both strongly correlated (p < 0.05) with aridity and fire area burned at high elevation sites across major western US mountain ranges. These results demonstrate that surface-level organic aerosol loading is dominated by summertime wildfires at many high elevation sites. This analysis provides new constraints for climate projections on the influence of drought and resulting wildfires on aerosol loading. These empirical observations will help better constrain projected increases in organic aerosol loading with increased fire activity under climate change.

An Evaluation of MODIS-Retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth over a Mountainous AERONET Site in the Southeastern US

The literature shows that aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from the MODIS Collection 5 (C5) dark target algorithm has been extensively validated by spatiotemporal collocation with AERONET sites on both global and regional scales. Although generally comparing well over the eastern US region, poor performance over mountains in other regions indicate the need to evaluate the MODIS product over a mountain site. This study compares MODIS C5 AOD at 550nm to AOD measured at the Appalachian State University AERONET site in Boone, NC over 30 months between August 2010 and September 2013. For the combined Aqua and Terra datasets, although more than 70% of the 500 MODIS AOD measurements agree with collocated AERONET AOD to within error envelope of ± (0.05 + 15%), MODIS tends to have a low bias (0.02–0.03). The agreement between MODIS and AERONET AOD does not depend on MODIS quality assurance confidence (QAC) value. However, when stratified by satellite, MODIS-Terra data does not perform as well as Aqua, with especially poor correlation (r = 0.39) for low aerosol loading conditions (AERONET AOD less than 0.15). Linear regressions between Terra and AERONET possess statistically-different slopes for AOD < 0.15 and AOD = 0.15. AERONET AOD measured only during MODIS overpass hours is highly correlated with daily-averaged AERONET AOD. MODIS monthly-averaged AOD also tracks that of AERONET over the study period. These results indicate that MODIS is sensitive to the day-to-day variability, as well as the annual cycle of AOD over the Appalachian State AERONET site. The complex topography and high seasonality in AOD and vegetation indices allow us to specifically evaluate MODIS dark target algorithm surface albedo and aerosol model assumptions at a regionally-representative SE US mountain site.

Forest disturbance across the conterminous United States from 1985–2012: The emerging dominance of forest decline

Evidence of shifting dominance among major forest disturbance agent classes regionally to globally has been emerging in the literature. For example, climate-related stress and secondary stressors on forests (e.g., insect and disease, fire) have dramatically increased since the turn of the century globally, while harvest rates in the western US and elsewhere have declined. For shifts to be quantified, accurate historical forest disturbance estimates are required as a baseline for examining current trends. We report annual disturbance rates (with uncertainties) in the aggregate and by major change causal agent class for the conterminous US and five geographic subregions between 1985 and 2012. Results are based on human interpretations of Landsat time series from a probability sample of 7200 plots (30m) distributed throughout the study area. Forest disturbance information was recorded with a Landsat time series visualization and data collection tool that incorporates ancillary high-resolution data. National rates of disturbance varied between 1.5% and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. Throughout the time series, national harvest disturbance rates varied between one and two percent, and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily forested regions of the US (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). During the first part of the time series, national disturbance rates largely reflected trends in harvest disturbance. Beginning in the mid-90s, forest decline-related disturbances associated with diminishing forest health (e.g., physiological stress leading to tree canopy cover loss, increases in tree mortality above background levels), especially in the Mountain West and Lowland West regions of the US, increased dramatically. Consequently, national disturbance rates greatly increased by 2000, and remained high for much of the decade. Decline-related disturbance rates reached as high as 8% per year in the western regions during the early-2000s. Although low compared to harvest and decline, fire disturbance rates also increased in the early- to mid-2000s. We segmented annual decline-related disturbance rates to distinguish between newly impacted areas and areas undergoing gradual but consistent decline over multiple years. We also translated Landsat reflectance change into tree canopy cover change information for greater relevance to ecosystem modelers and forest managers, who can derive better understanding of forest-climate interactions and better adapt management strategies to changing climate regimes. Similar studies could be carried out for other countries where there are sufficient Landsat data and historic temporal snapshots of high-resolution imagery.

A trade flow analysis of the global softwood log market: implications of Russian log export tax reduction and New Zealand log production restriction

This study employs a recursive dynamic spatial partial equilibrium model to investigate the trade flow trends in the global softwood log market. A baseline forecast from 2012 to 2021 is first projected and then compared with three alternative scenarios: (1) Russia reduces its ad valorem softwood log export tax to 8 per cent to comply with its World Trade Organization accession agreements; (2) New Zealand experiences no expansion at all of its plantation forest log production due to social and environmental considerations (i.e. increased Maori ownership of forest land and the implementation of emissions trading schemes); and (3) a combination of the proposed policies in Russia and New Zealand mentioned above. The results of the baseline projection demonstrate that softwood log prices will increase in every region globally and that China will continue to be the world’s largest softwood log importer. However, softwood log exports from Russia, the US and Canada are expected to drop significantly as a result of current Russian export restrictions, the recovery of the US housing market and mountain pine beetle infestations in western Canada. A comparison of the simulated scenarios with the baseline projection reveals that reducing the Russian softwood log export tax will have a greater impact on softwood log prices and total world trade than restricting log production in New Zealand due to the comparatively large log production capacity in Russia. In any scenario, significant trade flow changes (i.e. trade-offs) in response to the proposed policy changes are observed in China and the major export regions. The results of this study offer insights for forest managers and policy makers to examine the global impacts of potential changes in trade policies and supply constraints in these two important softwood log supply regions in addition to highlighting China’s role in the world softwood log market.