US Investment Research Articles

Policy approaches to increase external investment by US pension funds in African countries

AbstractLimited external investment has dampened the prospect for a prosperous African continent that capitalises on economic integration and its demographic dividend. This article explores US pension funds as a candidate for increased investment by framing it through an institutional lens and the scholarly understanding of the risk–return dynamics in private capital allocation. The original research is centered on interviews of senior‐level professionals who work in the US pension fund investment ecosystem as well as experts at multilateral organisations. It identifies the primary investment impediments articulated in interviews and offers approaches policymakers in OECD member countries could undertake to increase the scale of US pension fund investment in African countries. These include: (1) Transform guarantee programs in size, scope, and risk tolerance; (2) Establish large pass‐through investment vehicles; (3) Focus resources to improve capital markets in African countries; and (4) Mandate development organisations to coordinate and proactively collaborate with firms in the US investment ecosystem.

The Health and Economic Benefits of United States Investments in Measles and Rubella Control and Elimination

Background: Prior to measles vaccine introduction in 1963, measles virus caused hundreds of thousands of annual reported cases, which led to substantial US morbidity, mortality, and costs. Similarly, congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) led to highly visible and tragic lifelong disability for thousands of Americans, before rubella vaccine introduction in 1969. The US certified national virus transmission elimination of indigenous measles in 2000 and rubella in 2004. Methods: Applying an existing integrated transmission and economic model, this analysis characterizes the net benefits of US investments in measles (1963–2030) and rubella (1969–2030) immunization assuming continued high routine immunization coverage. Due to importation risks, the US maintains two doses of both vaccines in its routine immunization schedule. Results: This analysis estimates total US costs of 8.1 billion (economics reported in 2023 US dollars) for measles immunization for 1963–2023 and 14.1 billion for rubella immunization for 1969–2023. The analysis estimates an additional approximately 1.2 billion for measles immunization and 1.5 billion for rubella immunization expected for 2024–2030. Historical and future US investments prevented an estimated approximately 237 million measles infections, 228,000 measles deaths, 193 million rubella infections, and 166,000 CRS cases. These investments imply net benefits (from avoided treatment costs minus immunization costs) of approximately 310 billion for measles and 430 billion for rubella and CRS, even without incorporating avoided productivity losses and intangible costs. Conclusions: US investments in measles and rubella immunization continue to provide enormous savings of human and financial costs and to prevent substantial mortality and morbidity.

Hedging political risk in international portfolios

We show that internationally diversified portfolios carry sizeable political risk premia and expose investors to tail risk. We obtain political efficient frontiers with and without hedging political risk using a portfolio selection model for skewed distributions and develop a new asymptotic inference test to compare portfolio performance. Politically hedged portfolios outperform a broad market index and the equally weighted portfolio for US, Eurozone, and Japanese investors. Political risk hedging is not subsumed by currency hedging, and the diversification gains of politically hedged portfolios persist under currency hedging and transaction cost frictions. Hedging political risk induces equity home bias but does not fully explain the puzzle.

Vulnerable funding in the global economy

This study builds on the conceptual framework of vulnerable growth to examine how US financial shocks influence the conditional distribution of real credit growth across a diverse set of countries, a phenomenon we term vulnerable funding. We show that deteriorating US financial conditions are linked to a reduction in real credit growth abroad, with particularly pronounced effects at the lower quantiles of real credit growth abroad. This suggests that, in common with the episodes of vulnerable growth discussed in the extant literature, episodes of vulnerable funding are also triggered globally by financial weakness in the US. However, our analysis reveals significant variation in the impact of US financial shocks across the quantiles of credit growth in countries worldwide. Specifically, countries with lower credit-to-GDP ratios or with higher levels of US investment relative to their GDP exhibit greater real credit growth vulnerability.

Firms Entangled in Geopolitical Conflicts: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War

We examine the reactions of US-based multinationals and subsequent financial market reactions to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The multinationals’ firm-level decisions range from clean exits from the Russian market, all the way to ‘digging in’ as if the war never happened. Findings show that, in the short-term, markets favour ‘middle ground’ decisions which balance shareholder interests with regulatory and ethical concerns. This is manifest through those firms taking extreme decisions, on either end of the spectrum, experiencing more negative returns. In the longer term, however, investor ethical concerns and other considerations dominate such that firms announcing clean breaks incur lower losses compared to their peers. In other words, sitting on the fence and playing both sides does not pay off for long. We also show interesting differences in investor reactions between two major non-US markets: China − a Russia-leaning country − vs India − a neutral country. While Indian investors behave largely similar to US investors, Chinese investors do not significantly punish firms that stay put in Russia. We re-examine the situation one year into the war and show that markets reward a Russia-opposing corporate position in the longer term.

Institutional quality and US FDI outflows: Do political regimes matter?

To what extent are the locational decisions for US FDI outflows affected by the nature of the political regimes along with the quality of institutions in the host countries? Using property rights protection as an indicator of institutional quality, this study analyses how sensitive US FDI outflows are to institutional factors and to the nature of the hosting countries’ political regimes. In other words, whether a democratic or an autocratic regime makes any difference in terms of attracting US FDI. A joint effect between democracy and the protection of property rights on US FDI flows is examined using a panel data fixed effect technique for forty-one countries during the period 1984–2021. The instrumental variable method is used to check the endogeneity concerns. The results predict that the protection of property rights can have a positive impact in attracting US FDI, provided the countries in question become more democratic in nature. The findings suggest that partial reform to enhance the institutional quality or unconsolidated democratization are insufficient to attract US FDI rather than complementing each other in bringing FDI. The implication of the findings reveals that a democratic country such as India can be a good location for US investment if its protection of property rights becomes stronger. Moreover, some highly democratic countries with strong institutions should be more market oriented and improve their quality of infrastructure to receive the maximum benefit. Our results are robust to alternate measures of institutional quality/democracy and endogeneity concerns.

Decarbonization, critical minerals, and tribal sovereignty: Pathways towards conflict transformation

The Inflation Reduction Act, the largest US investment in renewable energy development and climate mitigation, provides incentives for critical minerals to be mined in North America. The rise in domestic mineral procurement is already reigniting historic conflicts between the Federal Government and Indigenous peoples over Tribal sovereignty. This study utilizes a Conflict Transformation framework to investigate the structural roots of mining conflicts and their impacts on Tribal Nations through two parts. Part One examines the extent to which Tribes were engaged in the formulation of the Inflation Reduction Act. Part Two presents three case studies of the local impacts of mining conflicts and includes the perspectives of a range of stakeholders involved in mining conflicts. The study finds that Tribal Nations were not sufficiently included in the formulation of the Inflation Reduction Act and that local conflicts are rooted in patterns of environmental degradation, colonialism, and broken promises to Tribal communities. Recommendations for transforming this conflict include strengthening environmental regulations, improving Tribal consultation, and commencing a long-term Truth and Reconciliation process between the Federal government and Tribal Nations.

Gender Diversity: An Empirical Study on 4.151 US Investment Funds

The aim of this paper is to explore the issue of gender diversity (GD) in relation to the world of investment funds. In recent times, in fact, savers’ choice does not only converge on the mere pursuit of profit. Investment funds, in this scenario, are increasingly judged according to their environmental and ethical actions, and not just by the promised rewards. Individual and institutional investors, on this wake, are aligning their behavior with their values by taking responsibility for the investments they select. It is central, therefore, to understand and observe how issues such as GD are evaluated, managed and converted into rating values by funds. This paper is supported by a mixed research methodology involving, on the one hand, an in-depth literature review on the aforementioned topic and, on the other hand, a statistical study developed with the “R-Studio” program. Through the statistical derivation, this study proposes an analysis of histograms and scatter plots on a sample of 4.151 investment funds and the GD-related rating judgments compared with their net assets and longevity. Based on our findings, funds with higher net assets achieve high rating classes but not excellence. In fact, larger funds reside in lower rating classes. Similarly, it is also valid for the amount of capital managed by the funds. From the empirical evidence we provide, it can also be seen that, there is no evidence between GD rating category and youngest funds longevity. Filling a gap that exists in the literature on GD-related rating assessment in investment funds, the originality of this paper concerns the descriptive statistics proposed. In fact, the paper contributes to the literature on GD by enriching the analysis of the factors surveyed for its measurement and rating judgment. This study may have both theoretical and practical implications. From a practical perspective, the statistical evidence in this paper could be a guideline for practitioners oriented toward ethical and profitable investment choices. From a theoretical point of view, instead, GD evaluation and monitoring could be a tool to reduce problems related to transparency and legitimacy theory, mitigating information asymmetry between parties and aligning them on potential risks.

How would legal systems affect US and Chinese foreign direct investment in Africa? An exploration of the roles of origins, customary law, and legal integration

ABSTRACT As the first and second largest economies, the United States and China are among leading investors in Africa. Given their differences in economic systems and political institutions, a natural inquiry would be what drives both countries’ continuous investment in this continent. Previous scholars focused on macroeconomic, resources, and political factors. From our perspective, the legal system is deep-rooted and align with the lasing-interest character of FDI, which might unlock a promising space to understand the determinants of FDI in Africa. We proposed that legal systems would impact FDI through property protection, dispute settlement, and cross-border transactions cost reduction, which would take effect through general legal origins, customary law, and legal integration, respectively. Based on our sample containing 43 countries between 2007-19, we find that African’ legal heritage tends to play important roles in affecting U.S. and Chinese investors’ economic engagement with the continent.

Role of China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) in Logistic System of Pakistan's and China's

This study will explain the impact of China-Pak Economic Corridor (CPEC) on logistic system of China and Pakistan. This project is estimated investment of US $90 billion, CPEC project is consists of various sub-projects including energy, road, railway and fiber optic cable but major portion will be spent on energy. This project will start from Kashgar port of china to Gwadar port of Pakistan. Transportation is sub-function of logistic that consists of 44% total cost of logistic system and 20% total cost of production of manufacturing and mainly shipping cost and transit/delivery time are critical for logistic system. According to OEC (The Observing Economic Complexity) currently, china is importing crude oil which 13.4% from Persian Gulf. CPEC will china for lead time that will be reduced from 45 days to 10 days and distance from 2500km to 1300km. This new route will help to china for less transit/deliver time and shipping cost in terms of logistic of china. Pakistan’s transportation will also improve through road, railway and fiber optic cabal projects from Karachi-Peshawar it will have speed 160km per hour and with help of pipeline between Gwadar to Nawabshah gas will be transported from Iran. According to (www.cpec.inf.com) Pakistan logistic industry will grow by US $30.77 billion in the end of 2020.

Article: The Systemic Importance of Asset Managers: A Case Study for the Future of SIFI Regulation

The nexus between financial stability and the asset management industry remains understudied. I question whether asset managers and/or investment funds could be systemically important, and if so, how financial regulation in the EU and US should cope with this. From a review of the available economic literature and policy standpoints, it emerges that asset managers and the funds that they manage can create systemic risk through fire sales. While in some cases nonbanks can be designated as systemically important under EU and US law, asset managers and investment funds do not fit well in this framework. Consequently, the current rules, concerning both designation and subsequent regulation, fall short. Instead, a simple designation rule could directly address the way in which asset managers can cause or amplify systemic risk. Regulation and supervision should equally address this fire sale risk. I propose a market-based prudential measure, complemented by centralised supervision, that does so. The case of systemically important asset managers shows that current SIFI regulation does not sufficiently account for the systemic risks that can and will be caused by nonbank financial institutions. I therefore advocate a rethink, such that it has a wider institutional scope but more accurately addresses sectoral differences. Financial stability, systemic risk, systemically important financial institutions, nonbank financial institutions, asset management, investment funds, SIFI regulation, fire sales, EU law, US law.

The mediating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on heuristic techniques and cognitive biases on investment decision-making

US investors’ behavioral finance and investment decision-making approach became a concern during the COVID-19 pandemic era as the capital market crashed. The study used mediation analysis to explain how or why the COVID-19 pandemic intervened in the causal association of behavioral finance concepts of heuristic techniques and cognitive biases on their investment decision-making. This causal research design study was based on 500 snowball-sampled US investors who answered self-constructed, validated, and reliability-tested Likert-scale quantitative variables measured through a first-party data collection approach. The results showed that the COVID-19 pandemic was a specific moderate to partial significant mediator on the low positive significant relationships between heuristic techniques and investment decision-making, and the COVID-19 pandemic was a specific moderate to full significant mediator on the low positive not significant relationships between cognitive biases and investment decision-making among US investors. From the point of view of behavioral finance, the COVID-19 pandemic situation clearly and significantly demonstrated how US investors used 75.6% heuristics techniques (calculated guesses based on prior knowledge) and 87.5% cognitive biases (unintentional errors in their worldview) to cause the crash of the capital market. These findings confirm the rational expectations theory.

The consequences of the 2017 US international tax reform: a survey of the evidence

The 2017 US tax legislation—widely referred to as the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA)—fundamentally transformed the US system of international taxation. It ostensibly ended worldwide taxation but introduced, for instance, a new tax on “Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income”. This paper surveys the emerging empirical literature on the impact of the TCJA’s international provisions. It documents five robust findings in this empirical literature. First, the TCJA led to a general decline in US MNCs’ foreign acquisitions. Second, the TCJA increased US MNCs’ investment in routine foreign tangible assets. Third, the reform did not lead to any change in profit shifting by US MNCs beyond the magnitude that would be expected based on the TCJA’s tax rate reduction. Fourth, The TCJA appears to have reduced the market value of US MNCs relative to domestic US firms. Fifth, the TCJA does not appear to have had any detectable impact on domestic US investment and wages (although there are some contrary results for capital expenditures). The welfare implications of these findings depend crucially on whether US MNCs’ are viewed as having engaged in too much or too little foreign activity prior to the TCJA. This depends on the choice of theoretical framework and the relevant normative benchmark, and cannot readily be resolved empirically.

Quantile dependence and asymmetric connectedness between global financial market stress and REIT returns: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

Using daily data for the financial stress index of the US and real estate investment trusts (REITs) returns from February 2, 2020, to January 20, 2022, we investigate the frequency-dependent and asymmetric connectedness between global financial market stress and REIT returns for the top 12 REIT regimes in America, Europe, and Asia. We use a novel asymmetric, noise-reducing-domain EEMD-based quantile connectedness and quantile-on-quantile regression technique and the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) connectedness approach. The findings divulge that at the upper quantile financial market stress is a major risk transmitter, transmitting risk towards Germany, France, Netherlands, New Zealand, the UK, and Canada. The findings of the study explicate the pivotal role of the financial soundness on the housing market, which is one of the main drivers of the economy. Investors and market participants should observe the conditional state of market dynamics and its associated policies for risk management and diversification strategies in real estate investment.

United States Policy on Africa: Do We (Still) Matter?

The United States no longer constitutes a monolith in determining Africa’s future. In fact, no single country does—not Russia, not China. Africa has options, well noted in welcome statements by Department of State Secretary Antony Blinken: “Africa does not need to pick sides.” Africans see double standards in US policy (“do as we say, not as we do”). Understandably, they turn to other options in seeking better outcomes for their countries. Partners such as the Russian Federation may seem unsavory to the United States, but rhetoric alone will not persuade Africans to drop them. High-level VIP visits leave them largely indifferent. Private sector investment could succeed where public efforts leave a dubious record. If US investors can overcome risk aversion, they may supplant or complement a public sector that Africans find unresponsive to their needs and wishes. Encouraged and energized, US investors could meet Africa’s challenges, and mutually benefit from its rewards.

Familiarity bias in direct stock investment by individual investors

PurposeThis study examines the relationship between investors' familiarity bias, including the home bias and endowment bias, and their financial situations, expectations and personal characteristics.Design/methodology/approachUsing the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances, the authors utilize an ordinary least squares regression to identify the presence of endowment bias and home bias in individual investors' direct stock holdings and use a Heckman selection model to examine determinants of the extent of endowment bias and home bias.FindingsThis study finds that investors with higher income and more education, men, non-white investors and people with greater risk tolerance are actually at a greater risk of endowment bias. This study also identifies a profile of investors that are more likely to have a home bias: with less financial sophistication, lower net worth, older, female, more risk-averse, with a positive expectation about the domestic economy and a relatively shorter investment horizon.Originality/valueThis paper is among the first to use US investors' directly reported stock holdings to examine the individual characteristics that are correlated with greater familiarity bias, providing financial professionals with information about how to allocate their limited time in providing education to a variety of clients.

Spillovers between cryptocurrencies, gold and stock markets: implication for hedging strategies and portfolio diversification under the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis study analyzes the static and dynamic risk spillover between US/Chinese stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold using daily data from August 24, 2018, to January 29, 2021. This study provides practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers.Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover indices based on the forecast error variance decomposition from vector autoregression framework. This approach allows the authors to examine both return and volatility spillover before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. First, the authors used a static analysis to calculate the return and volatility spillover indices. Second, the authors make a dynamic analysis based on the 30-day moving window spillover index estimation.FindingsGenerally, results show evidence of significant spillovers between markets, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, cryptocurrencies and gold markets are net receivers of risk. This study provides also practical policy implications for investors and portfolio managers. The reached findings suggest that the mix of Bitcoin (or Ethereum), gold and equities could offer diversification opportunities for US and Chinese investors. Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum can be considered as safe havens or as hedging instruments during the COVID-19 crisis. In contrast, Stablecoins (Tether and TrueUSD) do not offer hedging opportunities for US and Chinese investors.Originality/value The paper's empirical contribution lies in examining both return and volatility spillover between the US and Chinese stock market indices, gold and cryptocurrencies before and after the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This contribution goes a long way in helping investors to identify optimal diversification and hedging strategies during a crisis.

Dependency and causal relationship between ‘Bitcoin’ and financial asset classes: A Bayesian network approach

AbstractThis study employs the Bayesian Networks (BN) and the wavelet coherence approaches to invest the relationship between Bitcoin volatility and financial asset classes (MSCI world equity index, S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index [GSCI], US index and Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index ETF [PIMCO]) using daily data for the period from August 2011 to October 2021. The results show that the causal relationship between Bitcoin and other financial assets varies depending on the market states. During the low volatility periods, Bitcoin has a stronger impact on the GSCI, while during the stability periods, it has a direct effect on the US index and the MSCI world index. In contrast, during high volatility periods, Bitcoin has a direct impact on both the GSCI and PIMCO indices. The key findings enabled us to provide implications for US investors to promote asset allocation and risk management covering both Bitcoin and traditional financial markets. The results suggest that policymakers should watch Botcoin closely to preserve financial stability.

Transformation of investor attitude towards financial markets: A perspective on the Russia–Ukraine conflict

AbstractThe ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected global financial markets, requiring investors to adapt their attitudes accordingly. This study aims to explore the transformation of investor attitudes towards financial markets within the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. By analysing monthly data spanning from January 2021 to March 2023, including Standard and Poor 500 index, Bitcoin historical price, gross national income, US consumer price index and investor attitude index, various models such as regression, the vector error correction model, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and the granger causality model are utilized. The findings reveal a noteworthy and positive impact of investor attitude on returns in both markets. Positive investor sentiment is linked to higher returns and enhanced market confidence. Particularly, investor attitude's influence is particularly pronounced during wartime, as global net income exerts a significant negative effect on both markets. These findings emphasize the necessity of evaluating the financial health of industrial companies prior to making investment decisions amidst periods of conflict. Furthermore, the results provide remarkable guidelines for policymakers and investors, underscoring the necessity of tracking the investor attitudes during wartime and acknowledging their potential impact on investment decision‐making in financial markets.

‘Nobody Is Proud of Soft Dollars’: the Impact of MiFID II on US Financial Markets

Abstract Scholars and policy makers have long debated whether securities firms should be allowed to bundle the cost of execution services with the cost of research. Investor advocates condemn the practice whereas industry representatives defend it. In 2018, as part of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) legislative regime, the EU forced the unbundling of commission charges, diverging from US legal standards which still allow ‘soft dollar’ payments for research. The EU’s unbundling regime has challenged global financial services firms, which must now comply with conflicting rules across national boundaries. For more than five years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission provided temporary no-action relief to facilitate compliance with MiFID II, but that relief expired in July 2023, presenting an opportunity to reconsider the impact of MiFID II’s unbundling regime and its implications for US regulators and investors. While this article takes a critical view of soft dollar practices, the story of MiFID II presents contested issues of policy analysis as the agency costs inherent in bundled commissions could be offset by the public benefits of additional research. Unbundling also offers a noteworthy example of an innovation in capital markets regulation flowing from Europe to the United States rather than the other way around.