Canadians are fascinated with elections. In 2012, as in previous election years, Canadians have followed the twists and turns of the US election campaign almost as passionately as if they voted themselves. Because our countries are so closely integrated and policies have a real impact on Canada, people on this side of the border have genuine preferences when it comes to US politics, and for at least the past two decades, including the current election cycle, Canadians have preferred Democrats. It is often said, however, that this preference does not generally reflect the country's actual economic interest. If Canadians chose with their pocketbooks, the argument often goes, they would prefer Republicans. This article puts this proposition to a series of tests, and the results may surprise more than a few.In many ways, the Canadian public's preference for Democrats in the White House is not surprising. The mainstream of Canadian public opinion tends to remain close to the centre on economic and social policies. Canadians favour open immigration and multiculturalism, and their views on religion, foreign policy, health care, the environment, and social policy are more closely aligned with Democratic, rather than Republican, views. Indeed, if Canadians were given ballots this November, a solid majority would cast them for Barack Obama over his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama's victory was welcomed with unfettered enthusiasm by the Canadian public, which has remained quite solidly in favour of the Democratic president in the last four years, even as it shifted enough to the right in domestic politics to give Stephen Harper's Conservative government its first majority in Ottawa. A May 2012 Angus Reid poll showed that 60 percent of Canadians thought that Obama's presidency has been good for Canada, against only 13 percent of Canadians who thought the opposite. The same poll shows Obama would win 65 percent of the vote among Canadians, compared to then-presumed Republican challenger Mitt Romney' s nine percent1This preference for Democrats was not always clear-cut over the years, notably in 1984, when Ronald Reagan attracted a fair amount of sympathy in Canada, but it was definitely present in the strong rejection of the Bush presidency from 2000 onward. In 2004, for example, a sizable majority opted for John Kerry over George W. Bush, but that majority was not quite as strong as the support for Obama in 2012. Clearly, the war-prone Jacksonian policy of the Bush administration abroad,2 along with the increasingly radical tone of its conservatism at home, were rejected by the Canadian public. Nonetheless, the same public remained nearly unanimous in saying that the relationship with the United States was important, and two-thirds viewed the overall bilateral relationship as good.3Even if public opinion and the news media tend to lean heavily in favour of the Democrats, a recurring theme of commentary on Canada-US relations is the notion that, in spite of this strongly expressed preference, having Republicans in power in Washington should be better for Canada's economy, if only because of the GOP's reputation as the party of free trade. This is why we are often reminded by experts in Canada- US relations and right-leaning pundits that the public's preference for Democrats is irrational. Such experts confidently assert that the Republicans, who purport to be the champions of free trade and fiscal discipline, are much better for Canada's economy. After all, why would the party that gave us free trade not be the best bet for our exporters? At a recent conference in Montreal, I asked a roomful of distinguished economists whether a Republican or Democratic president is generally preferable for Canada's economy. At least three out of four confidently answered, a Republican.The debate was reignited this summer when Derek Bumey and Fen Osier Hampson wrote that the Democratic administration of Barack Obama had lost Canada by implementing a series of policies that they judged detrimental to the Canadian economy, from the Buy American clause of the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 to the Obama administration's decision to delay approval for the Keystone pipeline. …
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Open Access
Oct 5, 2023
Pavel Andreevich Kovalev 
