US Death Certificates Research Articles

S2338 Gastric Varices Mortality Rate Trends the United States: 2-Decade Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

S2338 Gastric Varices Mortality Rate Trends the United States: 2-Decade Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

Buprenorphine, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and methadone mortality in the United States (2010‒2017).

Opioid overdose survivors present to emergency departments (EDs) and many EDs have developed programs to initiate buprenorphine. The impact of the increasing use of buprenorphine in ED and by other providers is unknown while opioid mortality continues to rise. Public mortality data do not distinguish buprenorphine from other prescription opioids. Our objective was to determine when changes in overdose mortality trends occurred comparing deaths involving buprenorphine to oxycodone, hydrocodone, and methadone. This observational study utilized the drug-involved mortality database including US death certificates (2010‒2017) in which buprenorphine, oxycodone, hydrocodone, or methadone were contributing causes of death (determined through textual analysis). Population- and drug utilization-adjusted mortality rates were examined using disjointed linear regression. Buprenorphine-involved deaths were stratified by polysubstance involvement. The population-adjusted mortality rates for buprenorphine-involved deaths were lowest compared to other opioids; however, the change in rate for buprenorphine increased faster than oxycodone, hydrocodone, and methadone at 8.9% each quarter-year (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0, 9.8) from 2010 to mid-2016 when it stabilized. After adjusting for changes in dispensing over the study period, buprenorphine-involved mortality rates were increasing at 5.3% (95% CI: 4.6, 6.1) each quarter-year. In 2017, 94% buprenorphine-involved deaths had at least one other drug contributing to the cause of death. Given the low mortality, high proportions of polysubstance mortality, and the mixed agonist/antagonist mechanism of action, use of buprenorphine alone likely presents a lower risk for overdose than comparators. Mortality rose faster than dispensing, signaling need to ensure people understand buprenorphine risks, particularly polysubstance use, balanced against importance for treating opioid use disorders.

Abstract 12190: Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Trends Among Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Adults—United States, 2018 to 2022

Introduction: Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (NHPI) adults have historically been grouped with Asian adults in US mortality surveillance, potentially masking important differences between these two populations. In 2018, US death certificate race categories were modified, enabling the disaggregation of NHPI national CVD mortality surveillance data from the Asian population. Methods: Using National Vital Statistics System mortality data from 2018 to 2022, we identified CVD deaths among adults aged ≥35 years with ICD-10 codes I00-I99 listed as the underlying cause of death. Of all CVD decedents with non-Hispanic origin and NHPI listed alone or in combination with other race groups on the death certificate, we classified those with NHPI listed as the only race group as NHPI (60.1%). Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) compared age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) among NHPI adults compared to non-Hispanic Asian adults and US adults overall. Results: From 2018 to 2022, 6,088 CVD deaths (72.0% heart disease, 19.8% stroke) occurred among NHPI adults of Hawaiian (24.5%), Samoan (24.3%), Guamanian (11.0%), or other Pacific Islander (40.2%) descent. The NHPI ASMR was 464.5 CVD deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: 452.4-476.6), second only to the non-Hispanic Black ASMR (590.3 CVD deaths per 100,000, CI: 588.7-591.8; Figure). The ASMR among NHPI adults was significantly higher than non-Hispanic Asian adults (RR: 1.86, CI: 1.81-1.91) and US adults overall (RR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04-1.10). Conclusions: Single-race NHPI adults had the second-highest CVD death rate in the US from 2018 to 2022, second only to Black adults, and significantly higher than Asian adults. Surveillance using broader multi-race definitions to identify the NHPI population, further disaggregate by NHPI subgroup, and explore geographic variation is needed to better understand potential health disparities and target interventions to reduce CVD mortality disparities among NHPI adults.

S945 Crohn's Disease Mortality Rates in the United States: Two Decades Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

S945 Crohn's Disease Mortality Rates in the United States: Two Decades Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

S946 Ulcerative Colitis Mortality Rate Trends the United States: Two-Decade Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

S946 Ulcerative Colitis Mortality Rate Trends the United States: Two-Decade Analysis Based on US Death Certificates

Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality in Asian American Subgroups.

Asian American individuals comprise the fastest-growing race and ethnic group in the United States. Certain subgroups may be at disproportionately high cardiovascular risk. This analysis aimed to identify cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Asian American subgroups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), average annual percent change of ASMR calculated by regression, and proportional mortality ratios of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease were calculated by sex in non-Hispanic Asian American subgroups (Chinese, Filipino, Asian Indian, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese), non-Hispanic White, and Hispanic individuals from US death certificates, 2003 to 2017. Among 618 004 non-Hispanic Asian American, 30 267 178 non-Hispanic White, and 2 292 257 Hispanic deaths from all causes, ASMR from ischemic heart disease significantly decreased in all subgroups of Asian American women and in non-Hispanic White and Hispanic women; significantly decreased in Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, and Korean men and non-Hispanic White and Hispanic men and remained stagnant in Asian Indian and Vietnamese men. The highest 2017 ASMR from ischemic heart disease among Asian American decedents was in Asian Indian women (77 per 100 000) and men (133 per 100 000). Heart failure ASMR remained stagnant in Chinese, Korean, and non-Hispanic White women, and Chinese and Vietnamese men. Heart failure ASMR significantly increased in both sexes in Filipino, Asian Indian, and Japanese individuals, Vietnamese women, and Korean men, with highest 2017 ASMR among Asian American subgroups in Asian Indian women (14 per 100 000) and Asian Indian men (15 per 100 000). Cerebrovascular disease ASMR decreased in Chinese, Filipino, and Japanese women and men between 2003 and 2017, and remained stagnant in Asian Indian, Korean, and Vietnamese women and men. The highest cerebrovascular disease ASMR among Asian American subgroups in 2017 was in Vietnamese women (46 per 100 000) and men (47 per 100 000). There was heterogeneity in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality among Asian American subgroups, with stagnant or increasing mortality trends in several subgroups between 2003 and 2017.

Factors associated with the reporting of Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death on US death certificates.

Efforts aimed at preventing premature mortality for people with Down syndrome are hindered by the practice of reporting disability as the underlying cause of death. Prior research suggests this form of diagnostic overshadowing may be the result of increased uncertainty surrounding the death. This study uses bivariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression models to investigate associations between sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and death context and processing characteristics with the reporting of Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death in 2005-2017 US Multiple Cause of Death data files. The reporting of Down syndrome as the underlying cause of death was associated with characteristics indicative of an increased amount of uncertainty surrounding the death. Results also suggest other mechanisms may inform inaccurate reporting, such as racial bias, and the continued conflation of disability and health. Medical personnel certifying death certificates should strive for accuracy when reporting the causes of death. To ensure this outcome, even in the midst of increased uncertainty, Down syndrome should not be reported as the underlying cause of death unless the decedent was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease or unspecified dementia. Future research should further explore the possibility that increased death certification errors for adults with Down syndrome, or other developmental disabilities, are associated with racial bias.

Rural-Urban Differences in Maternal Mortality Trends in the United States, 1999-2017: Accounting for the Impact of the Pregnancy Status Checkbox.

It has been difficult to measure rural-urban differences in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) in the United States in recent years because of the incremental adoption of a pregnancy status checkbox on the standard US death certificate. Using 1999-2017 mortality and birth data, we examined the impact of the pregnancy checkbox on MMRs according to urbanicity of residence (large urban area, medium/small urban area, or rural area), using log-binomial regression models to predict trends that would have been observed if all states had adopted the checkbox as of 1999. Implementation of the checkbox resulted in an average estimated increase of 7.5 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.3, 8.8) in large urban areas (a 76% increase), 11.6 (95% CI: 9.6, 13.6) in medium/small urban areas (a 113% increase), and 16.6 (95% CI: 12.9, 20.3) in rural areas (a 107% increase), compared with MMRs prior to the checkbox. Assuming that all states had the checkbox as of 1999, demographic-factor-adjusted predicted MMRs increased in rural areas, declined in large urban areas, and did not change in medium/small urban areas. However, trends and urban-rural differences were substantially attenuated when analyses were limited to direct/specific causes of maternal death, which are probably subject to less misclassification. Accurate ascertainment of maternal deaths, particularly in rural areas, is important for reducing disparities in maternal mortality.

Understanding the Role of Work in Mortality: Making the Best Use of Available US Death Certificate Occupation Data and Opportunities for Improvements.

Occupational disparities in mortality are a concern in public health. Understanding these disparities is important for identifying high-risk occupations for intervention and occupational factors that may be contributing to high risk for primary prevention. Using data from death certificates is a useful strategy for tracking occupational disparities in mortality. There are a number of challenges associated with working with this data. This paper describes how to access death certificate data, code occupational information from these death certificates, calculate mortality rates by occupation, and combine death certificate data with data from other sources. Limitations of existing death certificate occupation data are described along with recommendations about how to improve the collection of occupation information for death certificates. Finally, a proposal for the development of a national occupational mortality surveillance system is presented.

Correction to: Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2019 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

Correction to: Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2019 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association.

A Multiple-Imputation "Forward Bridging" Approach to Address Changes in the Classification of Asian Race/Ethnicity on the US Death Certificate.

The incomparability of old and new classification systems for describing the same data can be seen as a missing-data problem, and, under certain assumptions, multiple imputation may be used to "bridge" 2 classification systems. One example of such a change is the introduction of detailed Asian-American race/ethnicity classifications on the 2003 version of the US national death certificate, which was adopted for use by 38 states between 2003 and 2011. Using county- and decedent-level data from 3 different national sources for pre- and postadoption years, we fitted within-state multiple-imputation models to impute ethnicities for decedents classified as "other Asian" during preadoption years. We present mortality rates derived using 3 different methods of calculation: 1) including all states but ignoring the gradual adoption of the new death certificate over time, 2) including only the 7 states with complete reporting of all ethnicities, and 3) including all states and applying multiple imputation. Estimates from our imputation model were consistently in the middle of the other 2 estimates, and trend results demonstrated that the year-by-year estimates of the imputation model were more similar to those of the 7-state model. This work demonstrates how multiple imputation can provide a "forward bridging" approach to make more accurate estimates over time in newly categorized populations.

Examination of Cause-of-Death Data Quality Among New York City Deaths Due to Cancer, Pneumonia, or Diabetes From 2010 to 2014.

The cause-of-death (COD) statement on the standard US death certificate is a valuable tool for public health practice, but its utility is impaired by reporting inaccuracies. To assess the quality of CODs reported in New York City, we developed and applied a quality measure to 3 leading CODs: cancer, pneumonia, and diabetes. The COD quality measure characterized 5 common issues with COD completion: nonspecific conditions as the underlying COD (UCOD); UCOD discrepancies; the presence of only 1 informative cause on the entire certificate; competing causes listed together on 1 line; and clinically improbable sequences. COD statements with more than 1 quality issue were defined as statements of "limited" quality. Of 82,116 deaths with cancer, diabetes, or pneumonia assigned as the UCOD in New York City from 2010 to 2014, 66.8% of pneumonia certificates were classified as "limited" quality as compared with 45.6% of cancer certificates and 32.3% of diabetes certificates. Forty percent of cancer certificates listed only 1 informative condition on the death certificate. Almost half of pneumonia certificates (45.9%) contained only enough information to assign International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, code J18.9 ("unspecified pneumonia") as the UCOD, whereas most diabetes certificates contained UCOD discrepancies (25.2%). These limitations affect the quality of mortality data but may be reduced through quality improvement efforts.

Angioedema deaths in the United States, 1979–2010

BackgroundHospital admission data indicate that the angioedema incidence has increased during the past several decades. Little is known about mortality trends. ObjectivesTo count the number of deaths associated with angioedema in the United States, investigate correlations with age, sex, race, and other contributory causes, and analyze trends from 1979 to 2010. MethodsAll US death certificates in which angioedema was listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death during 1979 to 2010 were analyzed. Age-adjusted mortality rates were analyzed by age, sex, and race. Other conditions designated as the underlying cause of death were investigated. ResultsFrom 1979 to 2010, there were 5,758 deaths in which angioedema was listed as a contributing cause. The age-adjusted death rate for hereditary angioedema decreased from 0.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25–0.32) to 0.06 (95% CI 0.05–0.08) per million persons per year. Conversely, mortality for angioedema increased from 0.24 (95% CI 0.21–0.27) to 0.34 (95% CI 0.31–0.37) per million. Blacks constituted 55% of angioedema deaths that were associated with use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. On death certificates that listed hereditary angioedema as the underlying cause of death, cancer (frequently lymphoma or leukemia) was the second most commonly listed cause. ConclusionAngioedema-associated deaths were very rare from 1979 to 2010. Hereditary angioedema deaths became even more so, whereas nonhereditary angioedema deaths increased. Risks associated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors were higher in blacks. Lack of specific coding for acquired angioedema most likely explains the observed association between cancer and hereditary angioedema. In the future, more granular coding systems may help distinguish hereditary from acquired angioedema.

Public Health Burden of Sudden Cardiac Death in the United States

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a leading cause of death in the United States, but the relative public health burden is unknown. We estimated the burden of premature death from SCD and compared it with other diseases. Analyses were based on the following data sources (using most recent sources that provided appropriately stratified data): (1) leading causes of death among men and women from 2009 US death certificate reporting; (2) individual cancer mortality rates from 2008 death certificate reporting from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Program of Cancer Registries; (3) county, state, and national population data for 2009 from the US Census Bureau; and (4) SCD rates from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (SUDS) population-based surveillance study of SCD between 2002 and 2004. Cases were identified from multiple sources in a prospectively designed surveillance program. Incidence, counts, and years of potential life lost for SCD and other major diseases were compared. The age-adjusted national incidence of SCD was 60 per 100 000 population (95% confidence interval, 54-66 per 100,000). The burden of premature death for men (2.04 million years of potential life lost; 95% uncertainty interval, 1.86-2.23 million) and women (1.29 million years of potential life lost; 95% uncertainty interval, 1.13-1.45 million) was greater for SCD than for all individual cancers and most other leading causes of death. The societal burden of SCD is high relative to other major causes of death. Accordingly, improved national surveillance with the goal of optimizing and monitoring SCD prevention and treatment should be a high priority.

Mortality Among Persons in Care With Hepatitis C Virus Infection: The Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS), 2006-2010

The number of deaths in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected persons recorded on US death certificates has been increasing, but actual rates and causes of death in these individuals have not been well elucidated. Disease-specific, liver-related, and non-liver-related mortality data for HCV-infected patients in an observational cohort study, the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS) at 4 US healthcare systems, were compared with multiple cause of death (MCOD) data in 12 million death certificates in 2006-2010. Premortem diagnoses, liver biopsies, and FIB-4 scores (a noninvasive measure of liver damage) were examined. Of 2 143 369 adult patients seen at CHeCS sites in 2006-2010, 11 703 (0.5%) had diagnosed chronic HCV infection, and 1590 (14%) died. The majority of CHeCS decedents were born from 1945 to 1965 (75%), white (50%), and male (68%); mean age of death was 59 years, 15 years younger than MCOD deaths. The age-adjusted mortality rate for liver disease in CHeCS was 12 times higher than the MCOD rate. Before death, 63% of decedents had medical record evidence of chronic liver disease, 76% had elevated FIB-4 scores, and, among those biopsied, 70% had moderate or worse liver fibrosis. However, only 19% of all CHeCS decedents and only 30% of those with recorded liver disease had HCV listed on their death certificates. HCV infection is greatly underdocumented on death certificates. The 16 622 persons with HCV listed in 2010 may represent only one-fifth of about 80 000 HCV-infected persons dying that year, at least two-thirds of whom (53 000 patients) would have had premortem indications of chronic liver disease.

Obstructive Lung Disease in Mexican Americans and Non-Hispanic Whites: An Analysis of Diagnosis and Survival in the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey III Follow-up Study

Although obstructive lung disease (OLD), which includes COPD, affects all the populations, Hispanics seem to be protected against COPD development and progression. Whether this advantage translates into a survival benefit for this population is unknown. We aimed to determine the risk for OLD in Mexican Americans, the largest US Hispanic subgroup, compared with non-Hispanic whites and to assess all-cause mortality in subjects with OLD. We assessed the relationships between Mexican American ethnicity and spirometric OLD and risk of death among 6,456 US adults aged ≥ 40 years who participated in the Third National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey Follow-up Study. We used logistic and Cox regression analyses to estimate the OR for OLD among Mexican Americans and the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality among Mexican Americans with OLD, respectively. After adjustment for demographic factors, socioeconomic status, and COPD risk factors, Mexican Americans had decreased odds of OLD diagnosis compared with whites (OR, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.54-0.95]). Among the 1,734 participants with OLD, 1,054 (60.8%) died during median follow-up of 12 years. In an adjusted model, Mexican Americans had no advantage in mortality from all causes (HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.69-1.13]). After accounting for the fact that some Mexican Americans may have moved back to Mexico and died there (thus, had no US death certificate), there was still no difference in mortality between these groups. Although Mexican Americans appear to have lower risk for OLD, subjects of this ethnicity with OLD do not seem to have a survival advantage.

Death by mental retardation? The influence of ambiguity on death certificate coding error for adults with intellectual disability

Although the coding of mental retardation as underlying cause of death has been recognised by previous researchers as erroneous, factors influencing this inaccuracy have not been sufficiently analysed. This study explores the effects of diagnostic ambiguity on risk of mental retardation being coded as underlying cause of death on US death certificates from 2004. Utilising all US death certificates from 2004 that included a cause of death code for mental retardation, logistic regression analysis provided estimates of the likelihood of having mental retardation erroneously coded as the underlying cause of death. Estimators used to measure ambiguity included the number of multiple causes of death, the place of death, and ICD-10 diagnostic Chapter codes. A total of 2278 US death certificates from 2004 included a cause of death code for mental retardation. Of these death certificates, 20% erroneously coded mental retardation as the underlying cause of death. Reflecting the negative impact of diagnostic ambiguity on death certificate coding accuracy, mental retardation was more likely to be coded as underlying cause of death for decedents who: (1) had a death certificate that provided less information on co-morbid disease processes; (2) died in an outpatient or emergency room setting; or (3) had either abnormal symptomatology or death by injury, accident or other external cause. Findings from this study, as well as prior research, demonstrate that attempts to understand mortality trends for this population must attend to frequent underlying cause of death coding errors which threaten accuracy of cause of death data. Furthermore, inquiry is warranted into the impetus behind US death certificate coding policy that continues to allow the erroneous coding of 'death by mental retardation'.

Differentiating Cause‐of‐Death Terminology for Deaths Coded as Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, Accidental Suffocation, and Unknown Cause: An Investigation Using US Death Certificates, 2003–2004*

We compared written text on infant death certificates for deaths coded as sudden infant death syndrome (R95), unknown cause (R99), and accidental suffocation (W75). Using US mortality files supplemented with the death certifiers' written text for all infant deaths with International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 assigned codes R95, R99, and W75, we formed cause-of-death subcategories from common themes identified from the written text. Among all infant deaths in 2003-2004, the underlying cause of death was listed as R99 for 2128 deaths, R95 for 4408 deaths, and W75 for 931 deaths. Among the postneonatal deaths, the differences in subcategories varied between assigned ICD-10 codes: for R99-coded deaths, 45.8% were categorized as "Unknown" and 48.6% as "Pending"; for R95-coded deaths, 67.7% were categorized as "sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)"; and for W75-coded deaths, 76.4% were categorized as "Suffocation." Examination of the written text on the death certificates demonstrates variability in the assigned ICD-10 codes which could have an important effect on the estimates of SIDS cases in the United States.

History of smoking and future of lung cancer mortality: A cross-national comparison.

e16503 Background: The association of smoking and lung cancer mortality has been well established for over 50 years. Smoking patterns differ by age, sex, year, and country reflected in public health campaigns, taxation, and social stigma. Historically, smoking has been more prevalent among men than women, but lately it has declined more rapidly among men. We forecast lung cancer mortality over the next decades in two countries with different smoking patterns: In Norway, smoking rates declined slowly for men and remained stagnant for women, whereas in the US, smoking has declined more consistently, especially for men, but lately also among women. Methods: US and Norwegian death certificates and population counts (1969-2007) and historical smoking prevalence by age, sex, and year (1961-2007) were used. Bayesian hierarchical forecasting modeling was employed to forecast lung cancer mortality by age, sex, and year, taking into account known demographic patterns and smoking prevalence 25-years earlier in age and year. Results: Smoking levels were historically higher for men in both countries. The pace of decline was fastest for US men, next US women and Norwegian males, and finally relatively stagnant for Norwegian females. Strong time-lagged correlation of age-specific lung cancer mortality and smoking prevalence 25-years earlier in age and year. Between 2007 and 2032, we forecast the age-standardized crude death rate change from 80 to 53 for US males, 52 to 34 for US females, 58 to 74 for Norwegian males, and 34 to 91 for Norwegian females (lung cancer deaths per 100,000 person-years). Conclusions: The burden of lung cancer mortality is shifting to females, and there is thus a greater need for anti-smoking and lung cancer screening initiatives directed towards women in both the US and Norway. Whereas the total lung cancer burden will decline in the US in the near future, our forecast predicts that this burden will increase in Norway. This population-level mortality forecast may be useful for setting research priorities and allocating public health expenditures.

The Hispanic Mortality Advantage and Ethnic Misclassification on US Death Certificates

We tested the data artifact hypothesis regarding the Hispanic mortality advantage by investigating whether and to what degree this advantage is explained by Hispanic origin misclassification on US death certificates. We used the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, which links Current Population Survey records to death certificates for 1979 through 1998, to estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and net ascertainment of Hispanic ethnicity on death certificates compared with survey classifications. Using national vital statistics mortality data, we estimated Hispanic age-specific and age-adjusted death rates, which were uncorrected and corrected for death certificate misclassification, and produced death rate ratios comparing the Hispanic with the non-Hispanic White population. Hispanic origin reporting on death certificates in the United States is reasonably good. The net ascertainment of Hispanic origin is just 5% higher on survey records than on death certificates. Corrected age-adjusted death rates for Hispanics are lower than those for the non-Hispanic White population by close to 20%. The Hispanic mortality paradox is not explained by an incongruence between ethnic classification in vital registration and population data systems.