US Banks Research Articles

Taxes under stress: bank stress tests and corporate tax planning

PurposeThis paper aims to examine how bank stress tests affect bank tax planning.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses US bank stress test bank size thresholds and a regression discontinuity design to investigate the effect of the Dodd-Frank Act and the instituted bank stress tests on bank tax planning. We use different measures of tax planning, including bank-specific measures and measures of tax avoidance, tax aggressiveness, and effective tax planning from recent literature. Our regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences regression analyses include bank and year fixed-effects and lagged bank characteristics to control for potential endogeneity.FindingsThis study finds that stress tests have the unintended consequences of intensifying tax planning and increasing tax avoidance. Stress-test banks increase tax avoidance by accelerating charge-offs, net interest, and non-interest expenses. However, this increase in tax planning is not optimally maximized, leading to lower effective tax planning compared to non-stress-test banks. Banks with a substantial increase in tax avoidance under the Dodd–Frank Act tend to increase their risk, investing in high-risk-weight assets and lending in riskier loan categories. These findings are consistent with tax minimization conditions under added regulatory attention and policy uncertainty.Originality/valueLiterature on bank tax planning is limited. Most tax avoidance literature excludes financial institutions such as bank holding companies mainly due to differences in business practices and regulatory frameworks. This study is the first to investigate tax planning behavior among US banks. The current study thus extends the research field by examining the effect of bank transparency regulations, such as bank stress tests, on bank tax planning activities. Our findings have a direct bank policy implication. They show that stress testing has the unintended consequences of increasing tax planning activities and consequently increasing risk-taking on banks with high tax avoidance, which goes against the goals of stress testing regulations.

Multiple Structural Breaks in Interactive Effects Panel Data Models

ABSTRACTThis paper develops new econometric methods for multiple structural break detection in panel data models with interactive fixed effects. The new methods include tests for the presence of structural breaks, estimators for the number of breaks and their location, and a method for constructing asymptotically valid break date confidence intervals. The new methodology is applied to a large panel of US banks for a period characterized by massive quantitative easing programs aimed at lessening the impact of the global financial crisis and the COVID‐19 pandemic. The question we ask is as follows: Have these programs been successful in spurring bank lending in the US economy? The short answer turns out to be: “No”.

Britain's Liability-Driven Investment Episode Was a Canary No One Elsewhere Bothered to Think About

Britain's liability-driven investment crisis in fall 2022 had lessons for other major financial centers that, as evidenced by the US and Swiss banking crises only a few months later, were largely ignored. They are still relevant. In this article, I first discuss what drove the British crisis before identifying lessons for the microregulation of pension funds; for financial stability policy on shadow banking and beyond; for central banking balance sheet regimes, including lending of last resort and market making of last resort; and for monetary policy when fiscal policy makers sit on their hands.

Limits of bank regulation in financialised capitalism: lessons from the 2023 US banking crisis

ABSTRACT In this article I argue that banks continuously build new business models in financialised capitalism. Market value of these business models is regularly calculated and reported to the investors by investment banking expertise. What the US banking regulators, in their ex-post analysis, declared as unsustainable business models in the three failed banks – Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank – in the Spring of 2023, had been promoted by equity analyst expertise as value-maximising ‘niche’ bank business models serving the disruptive technology start-ups after the Covid pandemic. The article argues that bank regulators’ power is severely constrained in financialised capitalism where stock market valuations of banks and equity-based remuneration of the executives are out of regulatory reach. Therefore financial stability mandate of central banks is undermined with significant risk to the society when business models of banks are legitimised by a financialised valuation regime that prioritises shareholder value creation.

Boardroom tenure, financial expertise and bank performance: a nonlinear dynamic framework

ABSTRACT This research investigates the influence of boardroom tenure and financial expertise on US bank performance in a nonlinear dynamic framework. To this aim, we utilize a sample of 305 banks during the 2010–2021 period, and we implement three empirical methodologies: GMM analysis, threshold technique, and quantile approach. Our findings reveal that the individual and interaction effects of boardroom financial expertise and tenure on bank performance are positive. Also, we provide evidence of an inverted U-shaped relation between boardroom tenure and bank performance, and between the board’s financial expertise and bank performance. Moreover, threshold analysis shows the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between boardroom tenure, expertise, and performance. Quantile results demonstrate that boardroom financial expertise improves the performance of high-performing banks. In contrast, boardroom tenure enhances the performance of low-performing banks but diminishes the performance of their high-performing counterparts.

Retraction notice: Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testing

Retraction notice: Assessing the resilience of the US banking sector under a macroeconomic stress testing

Connectedness and systemic risk between FinTech and traditional financial stocks: Implications for portfolio diversification

The rapid growth in FinTech is attracting significant investor attention. There are concerns that FinTech stocks may be a source of systemic risk and this has implications for the stability of the financial sector. This study uses a TVP-VAR model to estimate the dynamic connectedness between global FinTech stocks and the stocks of large US banks, regional US banks, US insurance, and global private equity. The findings reveal that FinTech and insurance stocks are net receivers of shocks while large US banks are a major source of shocks. Thus, FinTech stocks are not a source of systemic risk but can be affected by financial contagion and systemic risk originating from large US banks. The highest connectedness was observed at the onset of the COVID-19 lockdowns illustrating the dramatic impact that a health pandemic can have on systemic risk. Systemic risk also increased during the 2023 US bank panic. Connectedness has implications for constructing investment portfolios. The equally weighted, risk parity, and risk parity connectedness portfolios have similar portfolio summary statistics, but lower risk adjusted returns than the maximum Sharpe ratio portfolio which better captures the low correlation between FinTech stocks and traditional financial stocks. These results are robust across various portfolio rebalancing periods (daily, weekly, monthly).

Silicon Valley Bank: What can be learned from its collapse

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 and its resulting impact on global banking markets have already been exhaustively reported and analysed. This paper examines these events through two different but complementary lenses, root cause analysis and key assumptions check. Together, these methods provide a detailed picture of the causes and derive fact-based conclusions intended to prevent repetition of the mistakes made by SVB's executives and the US banking authorities.

Changes in bank profitability Post-CEO succession: Does prior CEO experience improve bank performance?

Based on a unique hand-collected dataset of CEO succession events in US bank holding companies (BHCs), we find that prior CEO experience of the newly appointed CEO improves bank profitability post-CEO succession, but primarily in underperforming banks. We distinguish prior CEO experience based on where the experience was obtained and find that the performance effect is driven by the experience gained outside the bank. Moreover, our study indicates that new CEOs with previous CEO experience acquired outside the bank are more likely to enhance profitability through earnings manipulation than those who obtained CEO experience within the bank or those without any previous CEO experience.

Model risk management in stress testing: The road up to here

This paper reviews the historical evolution of the quantitative models, model usage and model risk management (MRM) in large US banks since the 1980s. It comments on the most significant model-related events through this period. Some of these events were associated with contexts of great stress to the financial system. The paper identifies the main features of modelling in finance and economics that distinguish it from its application in the natural sciences. Then it presents the different types of models used in the large banks' stress testing programmes, the specific characteristics and risks of each type of model and the best practices for the implementation of sound model risk management, and it suggests a proper way to interpret the results of stress testing and capital assessment in the presence of model risks. The paper discusses the future evolution of MRM towards the implementation of a `fully fledged risk management framework` along the lines of other risk management disciplines, including risk identification, measurement, monitoring, reporting, limiting and capitalisation. It acknowledges the enhancements and opportunities offered by advances in the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning as well as increases in computational power. The paper concludes by noting that the model risk management framework that has been enforced by the Federal Reserve's stress testing and capital planning programmes has substantially strengthened the capital position, profitability and resilience of the large banks in the US.

Unveiling the drivers of banks' misconduct: Sanctions, signals, and the extent of unethical behaviour

This paper seeks to enhance our understanding of the drivers of misconduct in the banking sector. We propose several metrics of misconduct that allow for the identification of the occurrence, number and types of the breaches in the year in which they occur, rather than on the year in which the penalty is paid. Focusing on the US banking industry, our findings have important policy implications. We find that sanctions have a contemporaneous deterrent effect on misconduct. Large sanctions levied on large banks are also found to improve behaviour across the banking industry. The behaviour of larger banks acts as an informational signal for other banks, affecting their probability and intensity to misconduct.

Testing how banks generate credit in the USA under the Basel III framework

This paper revisits the determinants of the loan generating process as it is revealed through the idiosyncratic role of banks, in the case of the United States. Specifically, if banks are primarily mainstream “financial intermediaries”, then their financial role is expressed through a credit growth process emanating from the reserves of banks, in the period before Basel requirements, and from banks' equity during the era of Basel I, II & III restrictions. On the other hand, if banks are primarily “credit and money creators”, as an heterodox point of view would have it, then every proxy of the aggregate demand (AD) needs, is expected to play a leading role in the credit creation process. The innovative liquidity risk ratios, like LCR & NFSR, brought new instruments in this debate thus, extending the alternatives between the two extremes. Hence, the combination of a predominant role for AD needs along with acknowledgment of liquidity restrictions as drivers of credit growth, characterises an eclectic approach. According to our empirical results, credit to both US firms and households, is primarily driven by aggregate demand (AD) factors. Solvency and liquidity risk ratios do play a role, during the examined period but the overall results are closer to the eclectic approach, concerning the role of US banks, which seems to be more encompassing and realistic.

Bank insolvency risk, Z-score measures and unimodal returns: A refinement

We develop refined probability bounds for bank insolvency risk measures based on the Z-score, analogous to those given by Cantelli’s inequality under the additional assumption of unimodality of returns, drawing on the one-sided Vysochanskii-Petunin inequality. Illustrating empirically for US banks, we argue that (i) unimodality of returns is not an overly restrictive assumption in this context, and (ii) the refined measures provide a less conservative alternative to insolvency probability bounds drawing on the (two-sided) Vysochanskii-Petunin inequality, particularly for banks with higher levels of insolvency risk.

The challenge of phasing-out fossil fuel finance in the banking sector

A timely and well-managed phase-out of bank lending to the fossil fuel sector is critical if Paris climate targets are to remain within reach. Using a systems lens to explore over $7 trillion of syndicated fossil fuel debt, we show that syndicated debt markets are resilient to uncoordinated phase-out scenarios without regulatory limits on banks’ fossil fuel lending. However, with regulation in place, a tipping point emerges as banks sequentially exit the sector and phase-out becomes efficient. The timing of this tipping point depends critically on the stringency of regulatory rules. It is reached sooner in scenarios where systemically important banks lead the phase-out and is delayed without regional coordination, particularly between US, Canadian and Japanese banks.

Does being a responsible bank pay off? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic

We investigate whether banks’ initial responses during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in supporting their customers, communities, and governments were perceived as value-enhancing by investors. Using a unique responsible banking measure for a sample of the largest US and European commercial banks, we find a negative relationship between responsible bank behavior and stock market performance, particularly in the first wave of the pandemic. We also find that riskier banks were affected more negatively if they behaved responsibly. Overall, our findings show that banks’ responsible behavior during a crisis reduces, or at best is not relevant to, shareholder value.

Consumer protection and firm valuation: A study of overdraft protection and US banks

This study investigates the impact of regulatory and voluntary overdraft protection (ODP) reductions on bank valuations. Using event study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis, we find that banks have significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) as a result of regulatory ODP reductions. The CAR is higher for banks with higher reliance on ODP income. The positive valuation effect diminishes for larger and well-capitalized banks. For voluntary ODP reductions, the valuation effect is negative, and more pronounced among highly profitable banks. The valuation decrease is attenuated for banks with higher capital ratios, and higher betas. These findings highlight the nuanced financial implications of consumer protection activities on bank valuation.

Finance and intergenerational mobility: Evidence from US banking reforms

We investigate the impact of US banking industry deregulation on intergenerational mobility. In order to do so, we use a quasi-natural experimental research design to investigate how a change in state level bank competition (following geographic deregulation) affects the intergenerational mobility of individuals born to (poorer) families at the lower end of the income distribution. We find that individuals born to poorer families who spend their first years as adults in an area with a more competitive banking system, experience higher mobility relative to counterparts located in areas characterised by lower levels of bank competition. Increased educational opportunities and entrepreneurship are important underlying factors driving the observed increases in intergenerational mobility.

Carrying the (paper) burden: A portfolio view of systemic risk and optimal bank size

In this paper we propose a two-level portfolio allocation optimization program and use it to explore the banking industry systemic risk management from a regulatory (supervisor) perspective. In our model banks choose their portfolio to maximize their own profits, while the supervisor optimizes the risk and return in the banking system as a whole. This may induce inefficiencies, leading to a banking system that produces excessive risk. We propose three policy scenarios based on current regulation practices and proposals and explore the ability of these regulatory regimes to reduce the systemic risk of the banking industry. We illustrate the use of the model by looking at over 9,000 US banks in the period 1984-2013, covering two major recessions. While all policy scenarios yield a better risk-return trade-off compared with the observed portfolio, the greatest improvements are achieved when the supervisor is able to limit the size of banks.

Capital and profitability: The moderating role of economic freedom

Using the GMM framework, this paper examines the nexus between capital and profitability in the presence of economic freedom using annual data of US banks ranging from 2002 to 2022. consistent with both the financial stability and regulatory hypotheses, the present study's empirical findings reveal that economic freedom exerts a positive moderating influence on the relationship between bank capital ratio and profitability. The findings are heterogeneous across banks' specific characteristics and market conditions. Furthermore, the results are robust to alternative proxies of profitability. The study's finding is beneficial for policymakers and regulators as liberalization is not always adversely impact the economy; rather, it's a double-edged sword, and they must maintain that delicate balance. The conclusions of this study have meaningful implications for senior bankers and policymakers when formulating strategies for preserving bank value. Specifically, it highlights the importance of considering the interactive role of economic freedom in their decision-making process.

Piercing through the haze: Did PPP increase versus decrease bank efficiency?

AbstractWe study profit and cost efficiency effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) for US banks that disbursed the funds. Using bank‐level data combined with PPP bailout data and instrumental variables and other techniques for identification, our findings suggest that more intense PPP lending boosted bank profit efficiency but decreased cost efficiency. We uncover channels for profit efficiency improvements through higher revenues from core deposits and lending, and a labour‐related channel for the decline in bank cost efficiency from hiring more employees and significantly increasing compensation expenses. Findings are robust to many checks and may have important implications for bank management and future government bailout policy design.