Urban ecological resilience (UER) is vital for sustainable development, enabling cities to maintain stability in the face of environmental challenges. This study combined landscape pattern indices and spatial measurement methods, establishing a multi-scale linked “Resistance-Adaptation-Recovery (Res-Ad-Rec)” model chain to assess the UER of Xuzhou City, analyzed spatiotemporal changes using Moran’s I indices, and explored the influencing factors through the Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model. Finally, the research framework of “three-dimensional assessment, spatial diagnosis, and mechanism analysis” was constructed to achieve a multi-dimensional dynamic analysis. The results showed the following: (1) UER declined from 2008 to 2022, with low-value areas expanding from the city center and high-value areas near water bodies. (2) The spatial autocorrelation of UER was significant, with a rise in Global Moran’s I index and the strongest spatial agglomeration effect observed in 2022. High–high and low–low clustering were the main characteristics of local spatial autocorrelation. (3) Population density and nighttime lighting intensity were major factors influencing the spatial distribution of UER in Xuzhou City. The findings can provide a useful reference for similar resource transition cities to explore the path of sustainable development.
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