Urban Housing Market Research Articles

The lived housing experience of the urban poor in Chengdu: Four distinct periods in the urban housing career

AbstractCurrent research on the housing careers of urban low‐income groups, dominated by quantitative modelling, has discussed the housing predicament faced by the urban poor at length. While much is known about the factors influencing their housing careers, these studies have failed to provide a satisfactory understanding of the intricacy and depth of human struggles those vulnerable groups experienced in the urban housing market. This contributes a four‐period model, through a dialogue with the established life cycle/life course theories, to the reconceptualization of housing career of the urban poor and depicts a vivid and continuous housing trajectory by analysing their lived experiences at each period. This paper finds that, in a highly constrained and segregated housing market, the housing problems experienced by low‐income earners and their coping strategies are far more complex and variegated than traditional life cycle/course theory would predict. Factors at individual, household, community and even national levels are often interwoven and, more importantly, the combinations of these influences are constantly changing, sometimes repeating along their housing career forming a nuanced dynamism that has been largely overlooked by existing research.

Segregation in Hyderabad: Introspecting Multiple Indexes and Multiple Patterns

Segregation based on caste, religion, and ethnicity exists primarily in the urban housing market in India even in cosmopolitan urban centres like Mumbai, Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, and Hyderabad. The present study maps segregation in Hyderabad and explores its intricate linkages with access to public amenities. This study examines caste-based segregation in urban space using multiple indexes like dissimilarity index (DI), isolation index, interaction index, correlation analysis, and mandal development index (MDI). It is observed that there is no clear link between caste-based DI and MDI. The correlation of MDI and caste-based DI illustrates that it is the location (core or periphery) that decides the level of infrastructural development. This investigation of the link between residential segregation measurement of DI and MDI leads us to conclude that the historical factors are equally crucial along with the social identities to explain urban segregation and discrimination.

Maloutas, T. and Karadimitriou, N. (eds.): Vertical Cities. Micro-segregation, Social Mix and Urban Housing Markets

Maloutas, T. and Karadimitriou, N. (eds.): Vertical Cities. Micro-segregation, Social Mix and Urban Housing Markets

Determinants of housing prices: Serbian Cities’ perspective

This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of housing prices in Serbia, addressing the critical need to understand the drivers of real estate prices and their implications for economic and social welfare. Employing a panel data analysis approach on a unique dataset covering 24 distinct urban areas in Serbia from 2011 to 2021, we examine the relevance of diverse economic, demographic, and infrastructural indicators, providing novel insights within a developing country context. Our findings reveal that the housing market stock-flow model effectively predicts housing price appreciation trends, explaining over 60 percent of variation in property prices. Notably, disparities in labour income, captured by average wages and registered employment rates, emerge as significant determinants of real estate prices, underlining socio-economic disparities within Serbian cities. Housing prices exhibit a positive response to the population/housing stock ratio, suggesting higher prices in cities experiencing faster population growth relative to housing supply. Intensified construction is associated with elevated housing prices. Additionally, we find positive association between the inflation variable and housing prices, underlining real estate’s potential as an inflation hedge. Public service provision and infrastructural amenities also emerge as contributors to higher housing prices in urban areas, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive urban planning strategies. Our study contributes to the literature by providing specific quantitative evidence, advancing the understanding of urban housing market dynamics in developing countries. By offering nuanced insights into determinants of housing prices, our research informs policymakers and urban planners seeking to foster equitable and sustainable urban development strategies.

Analyzing adverse effects of subway extension on housing prices in affluent urban neighborhoods

This study examines the effects of subway extension on housing prices in affluent urban neighborhoods, focusing on the Q-line extension in Manhattan, New York City. Utilizing synthetic controls and treatment effects estimators, distinct pricing trends across property types are revealed, particularly condominiums. The observed pricing dynamics deviate from the assumption that increasing supplies are associated with price discounts. Moreover, the connection between price discounts and noise complaints is not observed, highlighting the significant role of demand-side factors, especially neighborhood characteristics, in shaping housing prices. An unexpected demographic shift is observed, suggesting that the Q-line extension may disproportionately benefit non-white and low-income groups, challenging the prevailing gentrification narrative. We use the term “inverse premiumization” to denote the phenomenon where anticipated price increases in affluent neighborhoods due to transit improvements fail to materialize. Furthermore, our analysis of speculative behavior reveals a spike in short-term growth during the public notice period, gradually slowing down during construction and operation phases. These findings offer the nuanced adverse effects of subway extension on housing prices, contributing to our understanding of short-to medium-term price premiums and discounts. These insights are key considerations for city planners and policymakers navigating urban development, housing market, and speculative behavior dynamics.

Recommended Strategies Based on The Capability And Purchasing Power of Low-Income Communities (MBR) In Providing MBR Houses In Kartamantul

The housing needs that shape urban spatial structures or the relationships between the three cannot be fully understood without considering the state of housing market prices. The reason is that changes in urban housing market prices no longer depend on the city level, but over time begin to be characterized by urban agglomeration processes. Furthermore, agglomeration dynamics that change urban spatial structure and housing market prices will have an impact on socio-economic disparities and challenges in providing affordable housing for people with low incomes in densely populated urban areas. The aim of this research is to find out whether the MBR housing allocated by the regional government is appropriately located in low-income areas/zones in KARTAMANTUL. The research methods used are web scrapping, mapping and comparative evaluation of housing locations with the distribution of MBR in KARTAMANTUL. The results obtained were to simplify the simulation of affordability and household purchasing power regarding home ownership, the researchers tried to average the income of the two categories of low-income households. Therefore, with an average MBR income limit of Rp. 3,900,000 in DIY, then the ability to repay the house in installments is IDR. 1,170,000/month. Furthermore, regarding house buildings, the criteria for a habitable house is a per capita area of at least 9 m2 per person. With the average number of family members in DIY being 4 people, the house area required per household is 36 m2. The recommendations given are a) 25 year house installments are a payment option that can be used for low-income households in KARTAMANTUL, b) the choice of house locations for MBR is mostly in Bantul Regency and Sleman Regency, both of which have urban status. fringe and urban shadow.

The dominant risks in the interest rate channel: evidence from the urban housing market in Taiwan

ABSTRACT The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the city-level data on mortgage rates of banks which may hide significant information about the monetary transmission mechanism. This study, by regional housing loans and risks data, investigates the behaviour of banks after a monetary policy tightening. By using the structural vector autoregressive model with the counterfactual impulse response function and the spatial regression model, our results show that monetary tightening causes mortgage rates to rise. This response is mainly driven by price and credit risks. Consequently, these housing activities have a significant effect on mortgage rates, by amplifying the shock from the tightening monetary policy. The latter result provides evidence that financial intermediation and regional housing risks play an important role in the interest rate channel.

HOUSING TYPES, POPULATION ATTRIBUTES AND THE DEVELOPMENT PATH OF HOUSING IN LARGE CITIES – A CASE STUDY OF ZHENGZHOU, CHINA

Large-city housing costs are commonly attributed to excessive investment or financialization of the property market. The primary cause of housing issues is the imbalance between housing supply and demand. In the context of the urban housing market, the dynamic matching of housing supply and population type plays a crucial role in promoting equilibrium, maximizing the effectiveness of the market’s long-term mechanism, and preserving the coordination and stability of the market. To illustrate this point, the paper analyzes the impact of different attributes of population on housing demand from the perspective of dynamic matching between population attributes and housing types. Taking Zhengzhou City in Henan Province as an example, we consider the relationship between population attributes and housing types in the past, construct a theoretical model of population and housing type and anticipate the future supply scale of various housing kinds. Ultimately, our findings provide a theoretical justification for curbing excessive financialization and housing bubbles in large cities. Furthermore, we propose a practical method for urban housing to return to the essence of life from the perspective of matching housing supply and demand.

The externality cost of environmental (dis)amenities in the urban housing market: an emerging evidence from Pakistan

ABSTRACT Rising urbanization on abiotic environmental conditions in housing units is one of the most severe difficulties that city municipality authorities face, all over the world. Waste production has increased as a result of households failing to implement waste management strategies that ensure sustainability. Thus, property values in the housing market have regularly deteriorated as a result of environmental (dis)amenities. The study examines the impact of a waste dump site on proximate property values in Pakistan’s twin cities. Using a systematic random sampling technique, questionnaires were distributed to 849 households. 35 dump sites were chosen from 100 metres to 500 metres. The dump sites were chosen based on their size and proximity to residential homes in the study area. The empirical results show that the distance between a residential property and a waste dump site significantly impacts rental values. Moreover, rents exhibit a negative relationship with increasing distance from the dump sites. Based on applied findings, more proactive enforcement of sanitary laws and regulations, such as removing all irregular dump sites from residential areas, is recommended.

New peripheries in the making? Analysing German cities from the lens of a suburbanisation of poverty

In this paper we discuss evidence on new socio-spatial patterns in the relation between urban and suburban areas due to the involuntary outward residential mobility of low-income households from central urban areas. Our findings build upon research in three German cities from a comparative perspective, with interviews with local experts providing the main source of information. For analysing decentralisation or suburbanisation of poverty processes we focus on the role of the urban housing market, residential settlement changes, and the role of social security systems. We cannot confirm the displacement of low-income households beyond city limits as a general trend. Instead, our findings reveal a local and context-dependent variation of socio-spatial shifts in the three investigated cities, related to city-specific housing market and urban development factors. As a general factor, existing social security systems continue to work towards keeping low-income households inside cities, seemingly preventing a large-scale suburbanisation of poverty. There is, however, a worrying trend in the concentration of low-income households in ever-decreasing segments of affordable housing, alongside increasing burdens on low-income households coping with the current challenges of a housing affordability crisis. City-regional monitoring and further research are needed.

Homonegative Labyrinth of Representational Distortions: Planning Im/Possibilities for Higher Education LGBTQ+ Students in Mumbai

This article accentuates higher education LGBTQ+ (HE-LGBTQ+) students’ lived experiences of off-campus housing in the Deonar Campus District of Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, India. It is observed that key urban stakeholders such as brokers, landowners, neighborhood resident families, and hostel wardens informed by cis-heteronormative moralities work in tandem in shaping the student housing market. The article argues, first, that these powerful urban stakeholders collectively contribute to two mutually feeding phenomena—”studentphobia” and “cis-heteronormative familification”—which in turn effectuate a homonegative labyrinth of representational distortions of the HE-LGBTQ+ student-image. Secondly, when compounded with an increasingly unaffordable urban housing market in the finance capital of India, it results in relatively acute experiences of “spatial dysphoria” for HE-LGBTQ+ students that cannot be comprehended within the neat binary of socio-spatial un/belonging. Methodologically, this article takes a trans-disciplinary approach to analyze the spatial stories of disbelonging of 13 HE-LGBTQ+ students that follow three stages: (a) securing a home, (b) making a home, and (c) leaving home. The article concludes that what is needed to enable a sense of belonging for HE-LGBTQ+ students in India is not necessarily “LGBTQ+ inclusive” or, for that matter, “exclusively LGBTQ+” housing; rather, it is for planning practices to take on queer and trans approaches that undo cis-heteronormativity in urban housing and homes.

Analysis of the key drivers influencing the control of the land and urban housing market with the use of foresight (Case study: Parand New City, Tehran Metropolis)

Analysis of the key drivers influencing the control of the land and urban housing market with the use of foresight (Case study: Parand New City, Tehran Metropolis)

The impact of light rail transit station area development on residential property values in Calgary, Canada: Focus on land use diversity and activity opportunities

Although many studies have examined the effects of transit accessibility on housing prices, fewer studies have looked more closely at the implications of transit station area development on the urban housing market. Employing a multi-level hedonic price model, we examined the effect of light rail transit (LRT) station area development on residential property values in Calgary, Canada. Station area development is measured by 1) land use diversity index, also known as land use entropy, and 2) activity opportunity count (i.e., the number of selected business licenses) within the 400m-buffers of station. In the case of Calgary, land use diversity is not associated with property values, which is counter to the existing knowledge. However, our findings suggest that activity opportunities around stations are positively related, particularly to the value of apartment properties. We also observed that a lack of activity opportunities for pedestrians and transit users and a poorly designed station area can partially explain the unexpected outcomes.

Dissimilarity effects on house prices: what is the value of similar neighbours?

Residential choice does not only depend on properties of the dwelling, neighbourhood amenities and affordability, but is also affected by the population composition within a neighbourhood. All these attributes are capitalised in the house price. Empirically, it is not easy to disentangle the effect of the neighbourhood on house prices from the effects of the dwelling attributes. We implement an agent-based model of an urban housing market that allows us to analyse the interaction between residential choice, population composition in a neighbourhood and house prices. Agents differ in terms of education, income and group affiliation (majority vs. minority). Whereas rich agents can afford to move to preferred places, roughly 13.01% of poor minorities and 8.02% of poor majority agents are locked in their current neighbourhood. We show that a preference to live among similar neighbours has a strong competitive effect on rich households and drives up their house prices. This is not the case with a preference for status. By introducing a policy that provides agents more access to credit, we find that all population groups denote higher satisfaction levels. Poor agents show the largest improvements. The general satisfaction level across all population groups increases. However, the extra credit accessibility also drives up house prices and leads to higher wealth inequality within the city. If agents have a preference for status rather than for similarity, the effect of the overall inequality is smaller, since agents become more satisfied living in areas with less similar agents.

Coming of Age: Renovation Premiums in Housing Markets

We rely on novel textual analysis of real estate listings and identify renovated dwellings in a dataset of Norwegian transactions to estimate the renovation premium in an urban housing market. The renovation premium is estimated in a hedonic framework by classical regression approaches and a random forest algorithm. The strength of the latter is that it allows for a more complex interplay between the renovation premium and explanatory variables. We estimate a significant positive renovation premium of 5–7 percent for renovated dwellings and a negative premium of 9–10 percent for unmaintained/neglected dwellings. These averages mask significant variations in these premiums over time, particularly, a counter-cyclical effect. Omitting renovation information also has implications for estimated short-term house price growth. Unmaintained dwellings tend to transact more in the fourth quarter, indicating that parts of the seasonal price variation reported in the literature are due to compositional variation with respect to renovation. This composition effect bias price movement estimates downward, if uncontrolled for, as unmaintained dwellings transact at significantly lower prices.

“No Woman is an Island”: The Housing Market Access Strategies by Female-Headed Households in Kampala

This paper investigates how low-income female-headed households exploit the social livelihoods assets to participate in Kampala city's informal urban housing market. It further explores the various strategies which, in the absence of financial assets, are explored by the female-headed households to access and participate in the housing markets. The study is qualitative and adopts a case study research strategy that recruited thirty-seven (n=37) participants from Luzira-Kisenyi informal settlement in Kampala city. It adopted purposive and exponential discriminative snowball sampling procedures in selecting participants. The data collection techniques employed included in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and document analysis. Content analysis was primarily employed during the analysis phase, and to ensure confidentiality, the participants’ identities were allocated pseudonyms. The paper explores the various strategies which, in the absence of financial assets and amidst the inefficiencies of the formal housing delivery, are explored by the female-headed households to access and participate in the housing market of Luzira-Kisenyi, Kampala. The strategies explored by the women heads of households have been identified in four categories. These include access and interchange of the local housing market information, negotiation of rent payment modalities, maneuvering through a discriminative mainstream housing market, and security of tenancy. Overall, the strategies are socially embedded, and their sustainability depends on the actors maintaining the social ties that they accumulate from time to time. The paper finally implores housing policymakers to embrace the socialised informal participation in the property markets critically and rather lay adequate strategies for its adequate operationalisation than total disregard.

The long history of gentrification in Vienna, 1890–2020

This article distinguishes between six historical phases of gentrification in Vienna. These phases emanate from shifting demographic, economic and housing policy circumstances that have decisively shaped gentrification dynamics in the city. Vienna is a rather unusual context compared to cities that are typically in the focus of gentrification research: for considerable parts of the 20th century, the city experienced pronounced demographic decline and economic stagnation. Meanwhile, strong state intervention from the 1920s onwards has shaped the urban housing market. We show how these particular circumstances have moulded gentrification processes throughout the past 130 years. We draw three broader arguments from our analysis: first, there is great value in historicizing gentrification research. Not only does it add empirical evidence to whether and how gentrification functioned prior to it first being mentioned in 1960s London, but also offers a substantial insight into current mechanisms of gentrification. In Vienna, institutions, rules and buildings from earlier periods persist and continue to exert considerable influence on the specificities of gentrification dynamics today. Second, the Vienna case highlights the need to develop more locally specific periodizations of gentrification that give more consideration to contextual circumstances. Third, the analysis points to two specific forms of neighbourhood downgrading since 1890, which are relevant in Vienna and possibly also in other cities: ‘incumbent downgrading’ for 1918–1938, and ‘reverse gentrification’ for the atrocities of Nazi housing policy between 1938 and 1945.

A novel approach to examining urban housing market segmentation: Comparing the dynamics between sales submarkets and rental submarkets

Submarket segmentation outlines an essential prerequisite for monitoring housing market and formulating urban housing policies. Although examining segmentation based on a posteriori knowledge rather than a priori knowledge becomes the mainstream, it follows a data-driven approach without a solid theoretical foundation and involves subjective interventions. Additionally, earlier studies have overwhelmingly examined the dynamics of sales submarkets while overlooking those of rental submarkets. This paper demonstrates a novel approach to segmenting the housing market by integrating the hedonic model, geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), and machine learning, and further applies it to unpack the dynamics of sales submarkets and rental submarkets from 2018 to 2020 in Shanghai, China. More specifically, using the home-fixed panel data of housing sales prices and rental prices for each residential quarter, we first establish a series of hedonic models using GTWR and then aggregate the residential quarters into a number of submarkets using an affinity propagation clustering algorithm based on the produced spatiotemporally explicit coefficients. To validate the identified submarkets, we compare them to the static submarkets delineated by the real estate industry with respect to the performances of hedonic models. Finally, the Jaccard and Rand indices are applied to compare the magnitude of spatiotemporal dynamics of sales submarkets and rental submarkets. Results show that hedonic models based on the identified submarkets through our proposed method perform better than those based on the static submarkets delineated by the real estate industry. We also discover that the submarkets present a complex change over three years, especially in central urban areas. The dynamics between sales submarkets and rental submarkets are of significant differences. In particular, rental submarkets are more stable than sales submarkets. Our approach provides a practical and efficient tool for urban housing market segmentation. Our study highlights that differentiated policies should be formulated for regulating sales submarkets and rental submarkets in order to enhance housing affordability.

Моделирование рынков жилой недвижимости крупнейших городов России

The existing mass appraisal models and mathematical tools for predicting the market value of residential property have a number of disadvantages, as they are developed for individual regions. Without considering the constantly changing economic environment, these models quickly become outdated and require constant updating. Thus, they are not suitable for construction business optimisation. The study aims to create a universally applicable real estate appraisal system for Russian cities, regardless of the constantly changing economic situation. This goal was achieved through the creation of a neural network, whose input parameters include construction and operational data, geographical factors, time effect, as well as a number of indicators characterising the economic situation in specific regions, Russia and the world. In order to examine the dynamics of real estate markets in the Russian Federation, statistical data for neural network training were collected over a long period from 2006 to 2020. Virtual computer experiments were performed for testing the developed system. They showed that minimum size one-room apartments of 16 square meters have the highest unit cost per square meter in Moscow. Two-room apartments with an area of 90 square meters have the maximum price, as well as 100 sq. m. three-room, 110 sq. m. four-room and 120 sq. m. five-room apartments. In Ekaterinburg, two-room apartments with a total area of 30 square meters have the highest cost per square meter; the same applies for 110 sq. m. three-room, 130 sq. m. four-room and 150 sq. m. five-room apartment. Thus, the proposed system can be used to optimise the construction business. It can be also be useful for government institutions concerned with urban real estate market management, property taxation, and housing market improvement.

Spatial Effects of Air Pollution on the Housing Market: Evidence from South Korea

This paper examines the spatial relationship between the ambient air pollution level of an apartment and its property value in the housing market of South Korea. Using detailed transaction data for 2015–2018, we construct the air pollution index and estimate a two-stage spatial Durbin error model that controls for both direct and spillover effects. We find that, holding other factors equal, a 1% increase in the air pollution level can, on average, cause a decrease in the value of a local real property by 0.32% ($879). Spatially heterogeneous effects of air pollution on housing prices are investigated, and air pollution is found to have a more significant direct impact on the urban housing market than in rural areas. Moreover, rising air pollution levels in urban centers can raise housing prices in suburban and rural areas, suggesting a strong spillover effect of air pollution and potential migration towards better air quality. The findings in this paper have profound implications for analyzing the spatial impacts of air pollution on housing prices and urban development.