Upward Counterfactuals Research Articles

Counterfactual language, emotion, and perspective: a sentence completion study during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic turned into a global crisis. Focusing on the deterioration in people’s mental health, we conducted two experiments, one in Germany and one in the UK, in January and February 2021, when both countries were in lockdown. Using a COVID-19-themed sentence completion task, we tested the direction of counterfactual thoughts in relation to egocentric (self-focused) versus non-egocentric (other-focused) perspective-taking. Results show that in both samples, more upward counterfactuals (mental simulation of better counterfactual worlds, relating to negative emotions) than downward counterfactuals (mental simulation of worse counterfactual worlds, relating to positive emotions) were produced in the egocentric condition. An opposite pattern was found in the non-egocentric condition. We conclude that emotions as expressed in counterfactual language are perspective-dependent.

My language ability could have been better or worse: Examining how upward and downward counterfactual thinking predict self-efficacy and language performance

Counterfactual beliefs are ideas about how one’s past could have been better (upward counterfactuals) and worse (downward counterfactuals). In this study, we investigated how language learners’ upward and downward counterfactual beliefs about their language ability were related to their self-efficacy and performance. In so doing, we examined the mediating role of learners’ different sources of self-efficacy. The study sample included 320 Iranian intermediate level language learners (190 males and 130 females) at a language institute in Isfahan, Iran. The results of the study indicated that upward counterfactual thinking was negatively related to self-efficacy and language performance, while downward counterfactual thinking positively predicted self-efficacy. Moreover, the results showed that upward counterfactual thinking predicted self-efficacy indirectly via the mediation of four sources of self-efficacy (mastery experiences, vicarious experiences, verbal persuasion, and emotional and physiological states) and language performance through the mediation of vicarious experiences and verbal persuasion. In addition, downward counterfactual thinking indirectly predicted self-efficacy through the mediation of vicarious experiences and emotional and physiological states, as well as language performance via the mediation of vicarious experiences.

Should I have been more careful or less careless? The comparative nature of counterfactual thoughts alters judgments of their impact

Counterfactual thoughts inherently imply a comparison of a given reality to an alternative state of affairs. Previous research mainly considered consequences of different counterfactual types, namely focus (other vs. self), structure (additive vs. subtractive), and direction (upward vs. downward). The current work investigates whether a ‘more-than’ versus ‘less-than’ comparative nature of counterfactual thoughts alters judgments of their impact. Four experiments demonstrated that self-generated other- (Studies 1 and 3) and self-focused (Study 2) upward counterfactuals are judged more impactful when they entail ‘more-than’ rather than ‘less-than’ comparisons. Judgments include plausibility and persuasiveness, as well as counterfactuals' likelihood to change future behavior and feelings. Self-reported ease of thought generation and (dis)fluency gauged by difficulty in thought generation was similarly affected. This more-less asymmetry reversed in Study 3 for downward counterfactual thoughts, with ‘less-than’ counterfactuals being judged more impactful and easier to generate. Further attesting to the role of ease, when spontaneously generating comparative counterfactuals, participants correctly provided more ‘more-than’ upward counterfactuals, but more ‘less-than’ downward counterfactuals (Study 4). These findings delineate one of the to date few conditions for a reversal of the more-less asymmetry and provide support for a correspondence principle, the simulation heuristic, and thus the role of ease in counterfactual thinking. They suggest that especially ‘more-than’ counterfactuals following negative events, and ‘less-than’ counterfactuals following positive events, are likely to have an important impact on people. (226 words)

"If it weren't for COVID-19…": Counterfactual arguments influence support for climate change policies via cross-domain moral licensing or moral consistency effects.

In two studies, we investigated whether counterfactual messages (i.e., "If… then…") on the economic costs of past public policies influence support for future climate change policies. In Study 1, we tested whether the effect of upward counterfactual messages depended on their referring (or not) to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results showed lower support for a future climate change policy when the past expenses evoked by the upward counterfactual messages were attributed to COVID-19. In Study 2, we combined upward counterfactuals with downward counterfactuals presenting past economic efforts to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as a moral credit. Results showed that exposure to downward counterfactuals decreased support for climate change policies among participants with low endorsement of anti-COVID-19 measures, whereas it increased support among participants with high endorsement. Discussion focuses on the conditions under which counterfactual communication may activate cross-dimensional moral licensing or moral consistency effects, influencing support for climate change policies.

“It Could Be Better” Can Make It Worse: When and Why People Mistakenly Communicate Upward Counterfactual Information

Imagine you are a real estate agent and are showing a prospective buyer a house with a lake view, but it is foggy, and the view is less than ideal. Are you inclined to tell the prospective buyer, “Unfortunately, it is foggy outside. If it were not foggy, the view would be even better!”? Eight studies, spanning diverse domains, reveal a novel discrepancy: most presenters (e.g., the seller) choose to communicate such upward counterfactual information (UCI) to experiencers (e.g., the prospective buyer), believing it will enhance experiencers’ impressions (e.g., of the house)—yet UCI actually worsens their impressions. This discrepancy arises because presenters insufficiently account for the fact that they possess more knowledge about the presented target than experiencers do; they fail to realize that noting an imperfection reveals it. Accordingly, when experiencers are knowledgeable about the target, either because the imperfection is obvious or because they can easily envision the upward counterfactual, the discrepancy attenuates. Finally, the presenter–experiencer discrepancy occurs only when the counterfactual information is upward, such that presenters do not overcommunicate downward counterfactual information, which rules out a desire to share any information as an alternative mechanism for presenters’ communication decisions. Together, this research highlights the prevalence and costs of sharing UCI.

Gratitude In the Workplace: Moving Toward New Frontiers

A growing body of organizational research has begun to explore the role played by gratitude in employees’ attitudes, perceptions, relationships, and behaviors. However, the literature remains limited in important ways. For instance, the literature has largely focused on gratitude within dyads, and has assumed that all gratitude expressions are equal regardless of the source or motivation behind these expressions. Our symposium aims to contribute to the organizational literature by addressing these limitations. The collection of papers we have assembled discuss how gratitude manifests in organizations and how third-party coworkers perceive the authenticity and effectiveness of gratitude expression. These papers adopt a multi-method approach to studying gratitude in a range of diverse organizational contexts. Taken together, this set of papers has implications for important organizational outcomes such as leadership, employee psychological empowerment, prosocial behaviors, and task performance. Gratitude as Positive Feedback in Organizations Presenter: Lauren Rachel Locklear; Texas Tech U. Presenter: Sharon Sheridan; College of Business, Clemson U. Presenter: Maureen L. Ambrose; U. of Central Florida How Upward Counterfactual Thoughts Impact Followers’ Gratitude for Leaders’ Emotion Helping Presenter: Jiaqing Sun; The London School of Economics and Political Science Presenter: Ryan Fehr; U. of Washington, Seattle I Don’t Appreciate Your Appreciation: Third Party Reactions to Leader-Directed Gratitude Expression Presenter: Ryan Fehr; U. of Washington, Seattle Presenter: Yue Wang; Renmin U. of China Presenter: Yirong Guo; Xiamen U. A Further Exploration of Factors Influencing the Perceived Authenticity of Gratitude Presenter: Ayana N. Younge; U. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

Grandiose narcissism shapes counterfactual thinking (and regret): Direct and indirect evidence

Little is known about how individuals high in grandiose narcissism think about what could have been. Across four studies (three online surveys and one online experiment; N = 801), we addressed this gap by examining the relationship between grandiose narcissism, its admiration and rivalry dimensions, and counterfactual thinking and regret. Unlike anticipated, high rivalry was associated with more rather than fewer upward counterfactuals in Study 1. Yet, high rivalry predicted an increased likelihood of generating a downward (vs. upward) counterfactual in a feedback situation (Study 3). Moreover, grandiose narcissism (preliminary study) and admiration (Study 2) negatively correlated with regret. Collectively, our findings stress the importance of considering grandiose narcissism’s dimensions separately and highlight a novel dispositional moderator of counterfactual thinking.

Working during non-standard work time undermines intrinsic motivation

How do people’s perceptions about when they work affect their intrinsic motivation? We find that working during non-standard work time (weekends/holidays) versus standard work time (Monday-Friday, 9-to-5) undermines people’s intrinsic motivation for their professional and academic pursuits. Working during non-standard work time decreases intrinsic motivation by causing people to consider better uses of their time. That is, people generate more upward counterfactual thoughts, which mediates the effect of work time on reduced intrinsic motivation. As a causal test of this process, increasing consideration of upward counterfactuals during standard work time reduces intrinsic motivation, whereas decreasing consideration of upward counterfactuals during non-standard work time helps employees and students maintain intrinsic motivation for their professional and academic pursuits. Overall, we identify a novel determinant of intrinsic motivation and address a real challenge many people face: How changing work schedules affect interest and enjoyment of work, with important consequences for work outcomes.

Guilt and Shame of What Might Have Been in Optimistic Offender Drivers.

Habitual offender drivers are required to recover points lost on their driving license by attending reeducation courses, an experience that may, upon reflection of the incident in question, induce feelings of guilt or shame for the infractions they committed. A simulated driving task studied optimistic offender drivers to analyze the extent to which the controllability of the situational context influenced their use of internal and external factors in counterfactual thoughts and emotions such as guilt and shame. The study involved 160 drivers, of whom 54 were categorized as repeat offender drivers while 106 drivers attended courses for advanced professional driving licenses. The participants drove along a route in a driving simulator, which had been previously adjusted for the difficulty to generate a perception of high or low control. Based on the outcome obtained by the participants in this stage, each driver had to report which resources they required to improve their outcomes. Different factor ANOVAs were used to analyze our findings. The results indicated that optimistic offenders, unlike other groups (i.e., optimistic non-offender and pessimistic non-offender), thought that their results could have been better if external factors had been present (i.e., upward counterfactuals), both under conditions of high and low control. They believed their results would have been worse had it not been for their internal resources (i.e., downward counterfactuals), especially under conditions of low control. Concerning emotions of guilt and shame, offender optimists had the lowest values in both conditions compared with the other groups. We may contend that optimistic offender drivers thought they could have obtained better outcomes if external factors had been involved. In the low control condition, they justified that if it were not for such internal skills, their results could have been worse. When they generated such thoughts, the emotions of guilt and shame were minimal.

The Effects of Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Relation to Sexual Assault and the Loss of a Loved One due to Kidnapping

The Effects of Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Relation to Sexual Assault and the Loss of a Loved One due to Kidnapping

Memory and Counterfactual Simulations for Past Wrongdoings Foster Moral Learning and Improvement.

In four studies, we investigated the role of remembering, reflecting on, and mutating personal past moral transgressions to learn from those moral mistakes and to form intentions for moral improvement. Participants reported having ruminated on their past wrongdoings, particularly their more severe transgressions, and they reported having frequently thought about morally better ways in which they could have acted instead (i.e., morally upward counterfactuals; Studies 1-3). The more that participants reported having mentally simulated morally better ways in which they could have acted, the stronger their intentions were to improve in the future (Studies 2 and 3). Implementing an experimental manipulation, we then found that making accessible a morally upward counterfactual after committing a moral transgression strengthened reported intentions for moral improvement-relative to resimulating the remembered event and considering morally worse ways in which they could have acted instead (Study 4). We discuss the implications of these results for competing theoretical views on the relationship between memory and morality and for functional theories of counterfactual thinking.

Self-referent upward counterfactual thinking mediates the relationship between self-compassion and depression

ABSTRACT Objective: Consistently strong negative associations have been found between self-compassion and depressive symptoms, but less is known about mechanisms that underlie this relationship. This study investigated whether four types of counterfactual thinking (self-referent upward, nonreferent upward, other-referent upward and nonreferent downward) mediate this association. Method: One hundred and sixty-seven Australian tertiary students (76.0% female) aged between 18 and 73 years (M = 33.63, SD = 10.76) completed an online survey. Results: Self-compassion exhibited significant negative bivariate relationships with self-referent, nonreferent, and other-referent upward counterfactual thinking, and a positive association with nonreferent downward counterfactual thinking. A multiple-mediation analysis revealed one significant indirect effect, in which highly self-compassionate participants reported lower levels of self-referent upward counterfactual thinking and, in turn, reported lower levels of depression. Conclusions: These findings indicate that self-compassion is associated with adaptive forms of counterfactual thinking, and that one way in which self-compassion conveys its beneficial influence on depression may be through its relationship with fewer self-referent upward counterfactual thoughts. This indirect effect suggests that self-compassion interventions may be especially beneficial to depression-vulnerable individuals who tend to generate self-referent upward counterfactuals. Key Points What is already known about this topic: (1)Consistently strong negative associations have been found between self-compassion and depressive symptoms. (2)Less is known about mechanisms that underlie this relationship. (3)Identified mediators include emotion regulation tendencies, positive future outlook, and cognitive processes such as automatic and repetitive thinking. What this topic adds: (1)This study found that self-referent upward counterfactual thinking tendencies also mediate this association. (2)High levels of self-compassion were associated with adaptive counterfactual thinking (low levels of nonreferent, self-referent, and other-referent upward and high levels of downward). (3)These findings suggest that self-compassion interventions may be especially beneficial to depression-vulnerable individuals who tend to generate self-referent upward counterfactuals.

“What Might Have Been…”: Counterfactual Thinking, Psychological Symptoms and Posttraumatic Growth When a Loved One is Missing

When a person goes missing, those left behind are at heightened risk of mental health difficulties. Little research has examined variables that may play a role in the development of psychopathology among this population and in particular, variables that may be amenable to change through targeted psychological intervention. One cognitive process that commonly occurs following adverse life events and has been linked to heightened psychological symptoms is counterfactual thinking (thoughts of “what might have been”; CFT). This study investigated the role of various qualities CFT in relation to psychological symptoms and posttraumatic growth among people with a missing loved one. People with a missing loved one (N = 110) completed measures of counterfactual thinking, psychological distress, prolonged grief, posttraumatic stress and posttraumatic growth. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted. Frequency of CFT was associated with all psychological symptom measures. Upward counterfactuals (imagining how things could have been better) were largely associated with heightened psychological symptoms. Downward counterfactuals (imagining how things could have been worse) were not associated with psychological distress or prolonged grief but, were positively related to posttraumatic stress reactions and to posttraumatic growth. The effect of counterfactual object of reference on psychological outcomes differed with respect to symptom presentation. Various types of CFT are differentially related to psychological symptoms with downward CFT facilitating posttraumatic growth in some individuals. Implications for psychological interventions are discussed.

Dispositional optimism weakly predicts upward, rather than downward, counterfactual thinking: A prospective correlational study using episodic recall.

Counterfactual thoughts center on how the past could have been different. Such thoughts may be differentiated in terms of direction of comparison, such that upward counterfactuals focus on how the past could have been better, whereas downward counterfactuals focus on how the past could have been worse. A key question is how such past-oriented thoughts connect to future-oriented individual differences such as optimism. Ambiguities surround a series of past studies in which optimism predicted relatively greater downward counterfactual thinking. Our main study (N = 1150) and six supplementary studies (N = 1901) re-examined this link to reveal a different result, a weak relation between optimism and upward (rather than downward) counterfactual thinking. These results offer an important correction to the counterfactual literature and are informative for theory on individual differences in optimism.

Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thought After Loss: A Multiwave Controlled Longitudinal Study

Counterfactual thoughts, mental simulations about how a situation may have turned out differently (i.e., “if only …, then …”), can reduce mental health after stressful life-events. However, how specific counterfactual thought types relate to post-loss mental health problems is unclear. We hypothesized that self-referenced upward counterfactuals (i.e., “If only I had done …, then the current situation would be better”) may serve as cognitive avoidance, thereby perpetuating loss-related distress. Conversely, downward counterfactuals (i.e., “If … had happened, then the current situation could have been [even] worse”) may facilitate benefit finding, thereby reducing distress. In a longitudinal survey, self-referent, other-referent, and nonreferent upward counterfactuals, and nonreferent downward counterfactuals were assessed at baseline. Prolonged grief and depression symptoms were assessed at baseline, and 6- and 12-month follow-ups. Multiple regression analyses assessed associations between counterfactual thoughts and symptom levels in 65 recently bereaved people who generated counterfactual thoughts about the loss-event. Moderator analyses assessed the unicity of significant effects in the previous step, by comparing these effects in 59 people generating loss-related counterfactuals with those in 59 propensity-score matched participants generating counterfactuals about other negative life-events. Multivariate analyses showed that nonreferent upward counterfactuals were uniquely strongly positively associated with prolonged grief and depression symptoms concurrently. Self-referent upward counterfactuals were uniquely positively associated with prolonged grief and depression symptoms longitudinally. Moderator analyses confirmed that thinking about how one’s (in)actions could prevent a death uniquely exacerbated prolonged grief and depression severity. Prolonged grief treatment may be improved by targeting self-blame and guilt.

Collective harmony as a moderator of the association between other-referent upward counterfactual thinking and depression

The current study aimed to investigate a recently observed significant positive relationship between other-referent upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms in a Filipino sample by exploring whether collectivist harmony may determine when other-referent upward counterfactual thinking confers risk for depression. An online survey was completed by 598 university-educated residents of the Philippines (Mage = 29.74, SD = 10.27; Range = 18 to 71). As hypothesised, both other-referent upward counterfactuals and collective harmony were significantly positively associated with depression. A moderation analysis revealed that other-referent upward counterfactual thinking was positively related to depression at low and moderate levels of harmony but not at high levels of harmony. This interaction suggests that generating other-referent upward counterfactuals may increase depression among individuals who adhere to low or moderate harmony maintenance norms, and that individuals with high harmony are likely to experience high levels of depression irrespective of their generation of other-referent upward counterfactuals. However, the predictive effect of this interaction was small, which may limit its practical significance. Possible implications of these results are discussed.

Improving workplace safety by thinking about what might have been: A first look at the role of counterfactual thinking

Introduction: Information processing theories of workplace safety suggest that cognition is an antecedent of safety behavior. However, little research has directly tested cognitive factors as predictors of workplace safety within organizational psychology and behavior research. Counterfactuals (cognitions about “what might have been”) can be functional when they consist of characteristics (e.g., “upward’ – focusing on better outcomes) that alter behavior in a manner consistent with those outcomes. This field study aimed to examine the influence of counterfactual thinking on safety behavior and explanatory mechanisms and boundary conditions of that relationship. Method: A sample of 240 medical providers from a hospital in China responded to three surveys over a four-month time frame. Results: Results showed that upward counterfactuals were positively related to supervisor ratings of safety compliance and participation. These relationships were mediated by safety knowledge but not by safety motivation. Upward counterfactuals were more strongly related to safety behavior and knowledge than downward counterfactuals. As expected, safety locus of control strengthened the mediating effects of safety knowledge on the relationship between upward counterfactuals and safety behavior. Conclusions and Practical Applications: The findings demonstrated that counterfactual thinking is positively associated with safety behavior and knowledge, thus expanding the variables related to workplace safety and laying some initial groundwork for new safety interventions incorporating counterfactual thinking.

대학생이 지각한 전공에 대한 상향적 사후가정 사고, 전공 만족, 취업불안 및 행복감 간의 구조적 관계 : 학년 간 차이를 중심으로

대학생이 지각한 전공에 대한 상향적 사후가정 사고, 전공 만족, 취업불안 및 행복감 간의 구조적 관계 : 학년 간 차이를 중심으로

Imagining What Could Have Happened: Types and Vividness of Counterfactual Thoughts and the Relationship With Post-traumatic Stress Reactions.

A growing body of research suggests that counterfactual thinking after traumatic events is associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. In this study we explored frequency of upward and downward counterfactuals in trauma-exposed individuals, and how trauma-related counterfactuals were represented in terms of vividness. We examined the relationships between vividness and frequency of counterfactual thoughts and post-traumatic stress reactions in two groups who had experienced different types of traumatic exposure, namely survivors and bereaved from the fire on the ferry Scandinavian Star in 1990. Even after 26 years, both survivors and bereaved reported that they currently entertained thoughts about what could have happened during the fire on Scandinavian Star. Survivors reported more downward counterfactuals than the bereaved, whereas the bereaved reported more upward counterfactuals than the survivors did. Vividness of counterfactual thoughts, as well as reported frequency of upward and downward counterfactuals, were associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. Our results suggest that both upward and downward counterfactuals can be harmful, and that vivid counterfactuals about a traumatic event might play a similar role in post-traumatic stress as trauma memories. Therefore, traumatized individuals who entertain counterfactual thoughts may benefit from interventions that target these thoughts specifically.

Self-referent upward counterfactuals and depression: Examining regret as a mediator

Previous research has found that self-referent upward counterfactuals are associated with depression. However, empirical evidence regarding the way self-referent upward counterfactuals exert their ...