Uptake Of Anthropogenic Carbon Research Articles

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate.

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies-particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Hydrological cycle amplification imposes spatial patterns on the climate change response of ocean pH and carbonate chemistry

Abstract. ​​​​​​​Ocean CO2 uptake and acidification in response to human activities are driven primarily by the rise in atmospheric CO2 but are also modulated by climate change. Existing work suggests that this “climate effect” influences the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon and acidification via the global increase in ocean temperature, although some regional responses have been attributed to changes in circulation or biological activity. Here, we investigate spatial patterns in the climate effect on surface ocean acidification (and the closely related carbonate chemistry) in an Earth system model under a rapid CO2-increase scenario and identify a different driving process. We show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a robustly simulated feature of climate change, is largely responsible for the spatial patterns in this climate effect at the sea surface. This “hydrological effect” can be understood as a subset of the total climate effect, which includes warming, hydrological cycle amplification, circulation, and biological changes. We demonstrate that it acts through two primary mechanisms: (i) directly diluting or concentrating dissolved ions by adding or removing freshwater and (ii) altering the sea surface temperature, which influences the solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and acidity of seawater. The hydrological effect opposes acidification in salinifying regions, most notably the subtropical Atlantic, and enhances acidification in freshening regions such as the western Pacific. Its single strongest effect is to dilute the negative ions that buffer the dissolution of CO2, quantified as alkalinity. The local changes in alkalinity, DIC, and pH linked to the pattern of hydrological cycle amplification are as strong as the (largely uniform) changes due to warming, explaining the weak increase in pH and DIC seen in the climate effect in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways

AbstractOcean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is an ocean‐based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) method to mitigate climate change. Studies to characterize regional differences in OAE efficiencies and biogeochemical effects are still sparse. As subduction regions play a pivotal role for anthropogenic carbon uptake and centennial storage, we here evaluate OAE efficiencies in the subduction regions of the Southern Ocean, the Northwest Atlantic, and the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region. Using the ocean biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1‐REcoM3, we simulate continuous OAE globally and in the subduction regions under high (SSP3‐7.0) and low (SSP1‐2.6) emission scenarios. The OAE efficiency calculated by two different metrics is higher (by 8%–30%) for SSP3‐7.0 than for SSP1‐2.6 due to a lower buffer factor in a high‐ world. All subduction regions show a CDR potential (0.23–0.31; PgC uptake per Pg alkaline material) consistent with global OAE for both emission scenarios. Calculating the efficiency as the ratio of excess dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to excess alkalinity shows that the Southern Ocean and the Northwest Atlantic are as efficient as the global ocean (0.79–0.85), while the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region has a lower efficiency (0.65–0.75). The subduction regions store a fraction of excess carbon below 1 km that is 1.9 times higher than the global ocean. The excess surface alkalinity and thus uptake and storage follow the mixed‐layer depth seasonality, with the majority of the excess flux occurring in summer at shallow mixed layer depths. This study therefore highlights that subduction regions can be efficient for OAE if optimal deployment strategies are developed.

Arctic Oceanic Carbon Cycle: A Comprehensive Review of Mechanisms, Regulations, and Models

Understanding the oceanic carbon cycle, particularly in the Arctic regions, is crucial for addressing climate change. However, significant research gaps persist, especially regarding climate effects on the oceanic carbon cycle in these regions. This review systematically explores Arctic-related research, focusing on mechanisms, regulatory frameworks, and modelling approaches in the oceanic carbon cycle, carbon sink, climate change impact, and maritime shipping. The findings highlight the Arctic’s limited observer presence and high operational costs, hindering the data availability and studies on carbon-cycle changes. This underscores the need to integrate real-time Arctic Ocean monitoring data. Carbon sink research urgently requires direct methods to measure anthropogenic carbon uptake and address uncertainties in air–ocean carbon fluxes due to sea ice melting. Unlike terrestrial carbon cycling research, carbon-cycle studies in the oceans, which are essential for absorbing anthropogenic emissions, receive insufficient attention, especially in the Arctic regions. Numerous policies often fall short in achieving effective mitigation, frequently depending on voluntary or market-based approaches. Analyzing carbon-cycle and sink models has uncovered limitations, primarily due to their global perspective, hampering in-depth assessments of climate change effects on the Arctic regions. To pave the way for future research, enhancing Arctic Ocean climate data availability is recommended, as well as fostering international cooperation in carbon-cycle research, enforcing carbon policies, and improving regional modelling in the Arctic Ocean.

The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond

Abstract. Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump, i.e. the production, export, dissolution and burial of biogenic CaCO3. However, the associated feedback on anthropogenic carbon uptake and ocean acidification has received little attention. It has previously been shown that Earth system model (ESM) carbonate pump parameterizations can affect and drive biases in the representation of ocean alkalinity, which is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and provides buffering capacity towards associated acidification. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show divergent responses of CaCO3 export at 100 m this century, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from −74 % to +23 % under a high-emission scenario. The greatest export declines are projected by ESMs that consider pelagic CaCO3 production to depend on the local calcite/aragonite saturation state. Despite the potential effects of other processes on alkalinity, there is a robust negative correlation between anomalies in CaCO3 export and salinity-normalized surface alkalinity across the CMIP6 ensemble. Motivated by this relationship and the uncertainty in CaCO3 export projections across ESMs, we perform idealized simulations with an ocean biogeochemical model and confirm a limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on 21st century ocean carbon uptake and acidification. However, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift, between 2100 and 2300, in the dissolution of CaCO3 from deep to subsurface waters when the global-scale mean calcite saturation state reaches about 1.23 at 500 m (likely when atmospheric CO2 reaches 900–1100 ppm). During this shift, upper ocean acidification due to anthropogenic carbon uptake induces deep ocean acidification driven by a substantial reduction in CaCO3 deep dissolution following its decreased export at depth. Although the effect of a diminished carbonate pump on global ocean carbon uptake and surface ocean acidification remains limited until 2300, it can have a large impact on regional air–sea carbon fluxes, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

Twenty-six years of phytoplankton pigments reveal a circumpolar Class Divide around the Southern Ocean

Regional taxonomic variation of phytoplankton communities in the Southern Ocean remains largely uncharacterised despite the distinct trophic and biogeochemical roles of different taxa in anthropogenic carbon uptake, biogeochemical processes, and as the primary source of energy for marine ecosystems. Here we analysed 26 years of pigment data (14,824 samples between 32°S and the Antarctic coast) from over 50 voyages (1996 – 2022), using the phytoclass software. The analysis confirms that the Antarctic Polar Front (APF) is a circumpolar phytoplankton class boundary, separating haptophyte dominated communities to the north from diatom domination of chlorophyll a in the south, and thereby a biological analogue corresponding to the Biogeochemical Divide. Furthermore, community composition was remarkably similar in different zones south of the APF despite substantial spatial variation in biomass. This circumpolar characterisation of the geospatial distribution of phytoplankton community composition will contribute to improved modelling and projection of future change in ecosystems and carbon in the Southern Ocean.

Combined Effect of Anthropogenic and “Natural” Carbon on Acidification of the Subsurface Ocean Water at the Tip of the Antarctic Peninsula

AbstractDissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, and dissolved N2O samples of upper 500 m were collected at the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula during the 32nd Chinese Antarctic National Research Expedition. The pH and anthropogenic carbon were calculated and the results show that the patterns of anthropogenic carbon uptake and acidification progresses are different in two adjacent regions of this study area. In the region of Weddell‐Scotia confluence, hydrographic processes such as convection prompt the transport of anthropogenic carbon into the subsurface layer, whereas in the region east of Powell Basin, where stratification existed, the downward transport of anthropogenic carbon to this depth is inhibited. However, the pH values indicate that the acidification status of the subsurface waters that are influenced by the above two hydrographic features are similar or even identical at a certain depth range. The progress of ocean acidification in the well‐ventilated region are dominated by anthropogenic carbon uptake, while in the adjacent well‐stratified region, anthropogenic carbon uptake and in situ remineralization of organic matter or horizontal advection of carbon rich water masses or both. In the later region, anthropogenic carbon uptake and in situ remineralization (or horizontal advection) contribute 40% and 60% to pH decline, respectively, suggesting that pH value in water mass of this region may significantly influenced by natural processes.

The Southern Ocean carbon and climate observations and modeling (SOCCOM) project: A review

The Southern Ocean serves as the primary gateway through which the intermediate, deep, and bottom waters of the ocean interact with the surface ocean (and thus the atmosphere), and it has a profound influence on the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon and heat as well as nutrient resupply from the abyss to the surface. Yet it has been the least observed and understood region of the world ocean. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling (SOCCOM) project was implemented in 2014 with a goal to help remedy this deficit in observations and understanding. The SOCCOM project is based on two major advances that have the potential to transform understanding of the Southern Ocean. The first is the development of new biogeochemical sensors mounted on autonomous profiling floats that allow sampling of ocean biogeochemistry in 3-dimensional space. Floats may detect processes with a temporal resolution that ranges from hours to years. The second is that the climate modeling community finally has the computational resources and physical understanding to develop fully coupled climate models that can represent crucial, mesoscale processes in the Southern Ocean, as well as corresponding models that assimilate observations to produce a state estimate. The observational component, based on deployment of profiling floats with oxygen, nitrate, pH and bio-optical sensors, is generating vast amounts of new biogeochemical data that provide a year-round view of the Southern Ocean from the surface to 2000 m. The modeling effort is applying these observations and enhancing our understanding of the current ocean, and reducing uncertainty in projections of future carbon and nutrient cycles and climate. After nine years of operation, including a project renewal in the sixth year, the SOCCOM project has deployed more than 260 profiling floats. These floats have collected over 27,000 vertical profiles throughout the Southern Ocean. A data-assimilating biogeochemical state estimate model has been implemented. Here, the design of the SOCCOM project is reviewed and the scientific results that have been obtained are described. The project’s capability to help meet the observing system priorities outlined for a notional UN Decade for Ocean Sciences Southern Ocean observing system is assessed.

Filter-feeding gelatinous macrozooplankton response to climate change and implications for benthic food supply and global carbon cycle.

It is often suggested that gelatinous zooplankton may benefit from anthropogenic pressures of all kinds and in particular from climate change. Large pelagic tunicates, for example, are likely to be favored over other types of macrozooplankton due to their filter-feeding mode, which gives them access to small preys thought to be less affected by climate change than larger preys. In this study, we provide model-based estimate of potential community changes in macrozooplankton composition and estimate for the first time their effects on benthic food supply and on the ocean carbon cycle under two 21st-century climate-change scenarios. Forced with output from an Earth System Model climate projections, our ocean biogeochemical model simulates a large reduction in macrozooplankton biomass in response to anthropogenic climate change, but shows that gelatinous macrozooplankton are less affected than nongelatinous macrozooplankton, with global biomass declines estimated at -2.8% and -3.5%, respectively, for every 1°C of warming. The inclusion of gelatinous macrozooplankon in our ocean biogeochemical model has a limited effect on anthropogenic carbon uptake in the 21st century, but impacts the projected decline in particulate organic matter fluxes in the deep ocean. In subtropical oligotrophic gyres, where gelatinous zooplankton dominate macrozooplankton, the decline in the amount of organic matter reaching the seafloor is reduced by a factor of 2 when gelatinous macrozooplankton are considered (-17.5% vs. -29.7% when gelatinous macrozooplankton are not considered, all for 2100 under RCP8.5). The shift to gelatinous macrozooplankton in the future ocean therefore buffers the decline in deep carbon fluxes and should be taken into account when assessing potential changes in deep carbon storage and the risks that deep ecosystems may face when confronted with a decline in their food source.

Drivers of Surface Ocean Acidity Extremes in an Earth System Model

AbstractOceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon causes acidification, a process that describes the increase in hydrogen ion concentrations ([H+]) and decrease in calcium carbonate mineral saturation states (Ω). Of particular concern are ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, which pose a significant threat to many calcifying marine organisms. However, the mechanisms driving such extreme events are not well understood. Here, we use high‐frequency output from a fully coupled Earth system model of all processes that influence the surface ocean temperature and carbon budgets and ultimately [H+] and Ω anomalies to quantify the driving mechanisms of the onset and decline of high [H+] and low Ω extreme events. We show that enhanced temperature plays a crucial role in driving [H+] extremes, with increased net ocean heat uptake being the dominant driver of the event onset in the subtropics. In the mid‐to‐high latitudes, decreased downward vertical diffusion and mixing of warm surface waters during summer, and increased vertical mixing with warm and carbon‐rich subsurface waters during winter are the main drivers of high [H+] extreme event onset. In the tropics, increases in vertical advection of carbon‐rich subsurface waters are the primary driver of the onset of high [H+] extremes. In contrast, low Ω extremes are driven in most regions by increases in surface carbon concentration due to increased vertical mixing with carbon‐rich subsurface waters. Our study highlights the complex interplay between heat and carbon anomalies driving OAX events and provides a first foundation for more accurate prediction of their future evolution.

Present-day North Atlantic salinity constrains future warming of the Northern Hemisphere

Earth system models exhibit considerable intermodel spread in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity and its carbon uptake, resulting in great uncertainty in future climate. Here we show that present-day sea surface salinity (SSS) in the North Atlantic subpolar region modulates anthropogenic carbon uptake in the North Atlantic, and thus can be used to constrain future warming. Specifically, models that generate a present-day higher SSS in the North Atlantic subpolar region generate a greater uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the future, suppressing the greenhouse effect and resulting in slower warming, and vice versa in models with a present-day lower SSS. Emergent constraints based on the observed SSS greatly reduce the uncertainty of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature warming and accumulative carbon uptake by about 30% and 53%, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5–8.5 scenario.

The role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate response to carbon emissions.

The effect of the Southern Ocean on global climate change is assessed using Earth system model projections following an idealized 1% annual rise in atmospheric CO2. For this scenario, the Southern Ocean plays a significant role in sequestering heat and anthropogenic carbon, accounting for 40% ± 5% of heat uptake and 44% ± 2% of anthropogenic carbon uptake over the global ocean (with the Southern Ocean defined as south of 36°S). This Southern Ocean fraction of global heat uptake is however less than in historical scenarios with marked hemispheric contrasts in radiative forcing. For this idealized scenario, inter-model differences in global and Southern Ocean heat uptake are strongly affected by physical feedbacks, especially cloud feedbacks over the globe and surface albedo feedbacks from sea-ice loss in high latitudes, through the top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance. The ocean carbon response is similar in most models with carbon storage increasing from rising atmospheric CO2, but weakly decreasing from climate change with competing ventilation and biological contributions over the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean affects a global climate metric, the transient climate response to emissions, accounting for 28% of its thermal contribution through its physical climate feedbacks and heat uptake, and so affects inter-model differences in meeting warming targets. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

The carbonate system and air-sea CO2 fluxes in coastal and open-ocean waters of the Macaronesia

The CO2 system, anthropogenic carbon (Cant) inventory and air-sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2) were analysed in the archipelagic waters of the Macaronesian region. The (sub)surface data were collected during POS533 (February and March, 2019) in coastal areas leeward of Cape Verde (CV), Canary Islands (CA) and Madeira (MA) and through the vessel track. The CO2 variability was controlled by changes in temperature, biological activity and advection processes forced by spatial heterogeneities in the Canary Upwelling System, the mixed layer depth, the mesoscale activity and the circulation patterns. The surface fCO2,sw variability was driven by biological production and CO2-rich water injection in tropical waters and by temperature fluctuations in subtropical waters. The factors controlling the upper ocean changes in the total inorganic carbon normalized to a constant salinity (NCT) were assessed. The uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon, calculated by using the TrOCA 2007 approach described, as an upper limit, > 60% (>90% above the MLD) of the NCT increase from preformed values. The organic carbon pump accounted 36.6-40.9% for tropical waters and lose importance for subtropical waters (7.5-11.6%), while the carbonate pump has a minimal contribution (<4.2%). The upper-ocean Cant inventory in coastal areas of CV (8,570 Km2), CA (7.960 Km2) and MA (1,250 Km2) was 7.57 x 103, 9.26 x 103 and 8.86 x 103 µmol kg-1, respectively (0.51, 0.58 and 0.09 Tg C, respectively). In terms of FCO2, the CV, CA and MA behaved as a winter CO2 sink (-4.74, -3.90 and -8.34 mmol m-2d-1, respectively) while a strong outgassing was detected over the Cape Blanc filament (20-25 mmol m-2d-1). The total average FCO2 for the ocean area of the three archipelagos (371,250 Km2) was -28.27 Gg CO2 d-1. The POS533 data were compared and compilated with SOCAT and GLODAP data and a new set of equations was provided to calculate the fCO2,sw, Cant and FCO2 in the Macaronesian region based on physical and biogeochemical properties.

Long‐Term Slowdown of Ocean Carbon Uptake by Alkalinity Dynamics

AbstractOceanic absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is expected to slow down under increasing anthropogenic emissions; however, the driving mechanisms and rates of change remain uncertain, limiting our ability to project long‐term changes in climate. Using an Earth system simulation, we show that the uptake of anthropogenic carbon will slow in the next three centuries via reductions in surface alkalinity. Warming and associated changes in precipitation and evaporation intensify density stratification of the upper ocean, inhibiting the transport of alkaline water from the deep. The effect of these changes is amplified threefold by reduced carbonate buffering, making alkalinity a dominant control on CO2 uptake on multi‐century timescales. Our simulation reveals a previously unknown alkalinity‐climate feedback loop, amplifying multi‐century warming under high emission trajectories.

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change.

Despite recurrent emphasis on their ecological and economic roles, the importance of high trophic levels (HTLs) on ocean carbon dynamics, through passive (fecal pellet production, carcasses) and active (vertical migration) processes, is still largely unexplored, notably under climate change scenarios. In addition, HTLs impact the ecosystem dynamics through top-down effects on lower trophic levels, which might change under anthropogenic influence. Here we compare two simulations of a global biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks from large marine animals. We show that these large marine animals affect the evolution of low trophic level biomasses, hence net primary production and most certainly ecosystem equilibrium, but seem to have little influence on the 21st-century anthropogenic carbon uptake under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results provide new insights regarding the expectations for trophic amplification of climate change through the marine trophic chain and regarding the necessity to explicitly represent marine animals in Earth System Models.

Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System

AbstractThe International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource that we use here to evaluate surface and upper ocean biogeochemical variables and integrated anthropogenic carbon uptake from earth system models (ESMs) contributing to the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). IOMB generates graphics and tables for systematically comparing model predictions against multiple datasets. Our analysis reveals some improvement in the multi‐model mean from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for most of the variables we examined. Compared to data‐constrained estimates of ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake for the 1994–2007 period, negative biases exist for many models between 30 and 50°S. Global model estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake for the same period do not change significantly from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with the combined ensemble mean estimate of 27.8 ± 0.5 Pg C lower than a data‐constrained estimate of 33.0 ± 4.0 Pg C. At the same time, the change in the natural carbon inventory from CMIP is estimated to be a source of 0.7 ± 0.3 Pg C, which is considerably smaller in magnitude than a data‐constrained estimate of 5.0 ± 3.0 Pg C. With chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) predictions available for several models, we demonstrate that negative anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon biases coincide with negative biases in CFC concentration, highlighting the importance of weak exchange between the surface and interior ocean in regulating rates of anthropogenic carbon uptake. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the CMIP models, we calculate the global vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1,000 m as a metric for global stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. We find a linear relationship between the bias of the vertical temperature gradients and the bias in global anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in anthropogenic carbon uptake are related to biases in surface‐to‐interior exchange by physical processes.

Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models

Abstract. The ocean slows global warming by currently taking up around one-quarter of all human-made CO2 emissions. However, estimates of the ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake vary across various observation-based and model-based approaches. Here, we show that the global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink simulated by Earth system models can be constrained by two physical parameters, the present-day sea surface salinity in the subtropical–polar frontal zone in the Southern Ocean and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and one biogeochemical parameter, the Revelle factor of the global surface ocean. The Revelle factor quantifies the chemical capacity of seawater to take up carbon for a given increase in atmospheric CO2. By exploiting this three-dimensional emergent constraint with observations, we provide a new model- and observation-based estimate of the past, present, and future global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink and show that the ocean carbon sink is 9 %–11 % larger than previously estimated. Furthermore, the constraint reduces uncertainties of the past and present global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink by 42 %–59 % and the future sink by 32 %–62 % depending on the scenario, allowing for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle and better-targeted climate and ocean policies. Our constrained results are in good agreement with the anthropogenic carbon air–sea flux estimates over the last three decades based on observations of the CO2 partial pressure at the ocean surface in the Global Carbon Budget 2021, and they suggest that existing hindcast ocean-only model simulations underestimate the global ocean anthropogenic carbon sink. The key parameters identified here for the ocean anthropogenic carbon sink should be quantified when presenting simulated ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake as in the Global Carbon Budget and be used to adjust these simulated estimates if necessary. The larger ocean carbon sink results in enhanced ocean acidification over the 21st century, which further threatens marine ecosystems by reducing the water volume that is projected to be undersaturated towards aragonite by around 3.7×106–7.4×106 km3 more than originally projected.

Sustained mid-Pliocene warmth led to deep water formation in the North Pacific

Geologic intervals of sustained warmth such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period can inform our understanding of future climate change, including the long-term consequences of oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon. Here we generate carbon isotope records and synthesize existing records to reconstruct the position of water masses and determine circulation patterns in the deep Pacific Ocean. We show that the mid-depth carbon isotope gradient in the North Pacific was reversed during the mid-Pliocene compared with today, which implies water flowed from north to south and deep water probably formed in the subarctic North Pacific Deep Water. An isotopically enabled climate model that simulates this North Pacific Deep Water reproduces a similar carbon isotope pattern. Modelled levels of dissolved inorganic carbon content in the North Pacific decrease slightly, although the amount of carbon stored in the ocean actually increases by 1.6% relative to modern due to an increase in dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface ocean. Although the modelled Pliocene ocean maintains a carbon budget similar to the present, the change in deep ocean circulation configuration causes pronounced downstream changes in biogeochemistry. Marine carbon isotope patterns point to substantial deep water formation in the North Pacific during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, according to a synthesis of carbon isotope records and isotope-enabled climate modelling.

Topographic Hotspots of Southern Ocean Eddy Upwelling

The upwelling of cold water from the depths of the Southern Ocean to its surface closes the global overturning circulation and facilitates uptake of anthropogenic heat and carbon. Upwelling is often conceptualised in a zonally averaged framework as the result of isopycnal flattening via baroclinic eddies. However, upwelling is zonally non-uniform and occurs in discrete hotspots near topographic features. The mechanisms that facilitate topographically confined eddy upwelling remain poorly understood and thus limit the accuracy of parameterisations in coarse-resolution climate models.Using a high-resolution global ocean sea-ice model, we calculate spatial distributions of upwelling transport and energy conversions associated with barotropic and baroclinic instability, derived from a thickness-weighted energetics framework. We find that five major topographic hotspots of upwelling, covering less than 30% of the circumpolar longitude range, account for up to 76% of the southward eddy upwelling transport. The conversion of energy into eddies via baroclinic instability is highly spatially correlated with upwelling transport, unlike the barotropic energy conversion, which is also an order of magnitude smaller than the baroclinic conversion. This result suggests that eddy parameterisations that quantify baroclinic energy conversions could be used to improve the simulation of upwelling hotspots in climate models. We also find that eddy kinetic energy maxima are found on average 110 km downstream of upwelling hotspots in accordance with sparse observations. Our findings demonstrate the importance of localised mechanisms to Southern Ocean dynamics.

Transit Time Distributions and Ventilation Pathways Using CFCs and Lagrangian Backtracking in the South Atlantic of an Eddying Ocean Model

Abstract Transit time distributions (TTDs) for the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the South Atlantic Ocean are estimated from an eddying ocean model with a twofold scope: validation of the TTD method and identifying pathways of the AAIW. The TTDs are inferred both from Lagrangian particle backtracking and the modeled CFC-11 concentrations, under the assumption that the TTDs can be described with an inverse Gaussian function. A bimodal distribution is obtained for the Lagrangian TTDs with four major subduction regions identified: near the Agulhas retroflection, south of New Zealand, west of the Drake Passage (smallest mean age Γ = 13 years), and in the Argentine basin (largest mean age Γ = 25 years). With the Southern Ocean as source region, the inverse Gaussian is a reasonable representation for the TTDs in the eastern Atlantic basin (40°–35°S, 0°–20°E), whereas the fit for region west (40°–35°S, 60°–40°W) of the mid-Atlantic ridge is not as good and overestimates the TTDs for transit times < 15 years. Mean ages from the modeled CFC-11 are mostly larger (up to 12 years) in the eastern Atlantic basin, and they are mostly smaller than the Lagrangian mean ages in the west. Both methods yield mean ages smaller in the western than in the eastern Atlantic basin and an aging of AAIW from the 1990s to the 2000s that is consistent with reduced flow velocities. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current appears to be the prime determinant of the transit times. The results suggest that the inverse Gaussian, despite assuming 1D advection–diffusion with constant mean flow and diffusivity, is a surprisingly good fit. Significance Statement In this article, we assess the transit time distribution method, often used to estimate anthropogenic carbon uptake in the ocean from observations, thereby exploring particle pathways from the surface into the ocean interior in the South Atlantic Ocean. We track thousands of particles in a model from their point of origin near the surface to the ocean interior. The tracking reveals multiple routes and gives the actual travel time of these particles, which we compare with the travel times predicted by theory. Thus, this research deepens our understanding of the routes and travel times of the water particles, which is important for the ocean circulation, and provides insights to improve the methods to infer anthropogenic carbon uptake, storage, and transport.