Accurate prediction of the spread of fluids leaking from underground pipelines is crucial for risk assessment. In this study, we developed a method for predicting the diffusion range of pipeline seepage fluids within an unsaturated stratum. First, we derived a seepage–diffusion equation based on the generalized Darcy’s law and subsequently analyzed the mechanism of fluid diffusion in the unsaturated stratum. We then constructed a model for the seepage–diffusion of a pipeline leakage fluid, incorporating variables such as the saturation, permeability coefficient, diffusion pressure, and diffusion distance of soil microelements across various time intervals, using a stepwise algorithm in tandem with the Green–Ampt model and VG–Mualen permeability coefficient function. We investigated the influence of fluid self-gravity, saturated permeability coefficient, initial saturation, and intra-pipe pressure on the diffusion distance of the pipeline leakage fluid in an unsaturated stratum, focusing on specific cases. The results indicate that an increase in the saturated permeability coefficient, initial saturation, and intra-pipe pressure leads to an increase in the fluid diffusion distance. A simulation test was conducted to validate the proposed seepage–diffusion model. The findings of this study can be employed to predict the diffusion range of pipeline leakage fluids in various formation types, providing a vital foundation for pipeline leakage accident management.
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