Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model Research Articles

The Effects of Government Borrowing to Investment Growth of the Country

Government borrowing has emerged as one significant method that helps in mobilization of resources for economic growth especially in emerging economics. Most governments in developing economies resort to borrowing as a way of financing budget deficit. This paper identifies the effects of government borrowing to investment growth in the Philippines. Specifically, it presented the trend of gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt from 1990-2020. The study used Johansen Co-integration, Granger Causality, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to analyze this study. Johansen’s Co-integration analysis revealed that the gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED) are rejected at a 5% significant level and showing that all relevant variables have a long-term relationship and the data are co-integrated. On the other hand, unrestricted VAR model, there exist a relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), internal debt (ID), and external debt (ED). The Granger Causality test result revealed the direction of the causal relationship between independent and dependent variables; gross domestic product, internal debt, and external debt at the 5% significant level.

Financial development and non-resource economic growth: Empirical evidence from Azerbaijan

Most research on financial development and non-resource economic growth presents a wide range and, in some cases, even conflicting results. Evidence from emerging and resource-rich countries may enrich the scientific discourse with new empirical evidence. Therefore, the study aims to assess the mutual impact of financial development and non-resource economic growth in Azerbaijan. The growth rate of real non-oil gross domestic product (GDP), the share of loans in non-oil GDP, and the share of the broad money in GDP were taken as variables for the model. Monthly variable data from 2005–2022 were processed using the unrestricted vector autoregression model. The study’s results did not provide evidence for long-run causality between the finance sector and non-oil growth. But there are short-run and unidirectional causal relationships – from loans to non-oil growth and from broad money to loans. The results also showed that the increase in loans does not support broad money growth. Policymakers are encouraged to increase incentives for lending to the non-oil sector. Supporting money supply growth through increased deposits and non-cash money could also positively impact non-oil growth through loan channels. The development of the securities market could also open up additional financing opportunities for entrepreneurs in the non-oil sector. AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments are expressed to all the scientists whose works have become a theoretical and methodological foundation for the study. It is also necessary to note the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which provides open access to the use of an extensive information base.

Powering Ghana’s future: unraveling the dynamics of electricity generation and the path to sustainable energy

This study investigates powering Ghana’s future: unraveling the dynamics of electricity generation and the path to sustainable energy by estimating endogenous parameters and employing an unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The model examines the linear lead–lag relationships between variables in the Ghanaian electricity sector and power consumption, using data from 2002 to 2021. The results reveal structural long-and-short-run headwinds for the unrestricted models and indicate that the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and electricity from fossil fuels are directly correlated. Granger causality analysis highlights a feedback relationship between GDP growth rate and electricity from fossil fuel sources. The impulse response function reveals that the GDP growth rate is sensitive to exogenous shocks with lasting effects. Variance decomposition results show that renewable energy without hydropower explains a minimal variance due to shocks, while total global greenhouse emissions account for a significant proportion of the variance due to headwinds. Electricity from fossil fuel sources explains a substantial part of the variance due to headwinds, suggesting Ghana’s overreliance on conventional energy sources. The study forecasts that installed renewable energy capacity will experience considerable growth by 2036, accounting for most of the energy mix. To promote a sustainable energy future, the study recommends implementing fiscal instruments that incentivize renewable energy consumption, gradually diversifying the energy mix towards natural gas as a medium-term transition fuel for grid electricity generation and shifting entirely to renewables in the long time. This research contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of electricity generation in Ghana and provides policy recommendations for sustainable energy development.

The Impact of Natural Gas Prices on Electricity Tariffs in the UK

The study was conducted to know the impact of natural gas prices on electricity tariffs in the UK. Although the United Kingdom doesn’t rely directly on Russian gas supplies, still, we are acutely vulnerable to the energy catastrophe that has resulted from the invasion of Ukraine. The UK is part of the European Union and that is a reason the UK energy tariff and natural gas prices are closely connected to the EU. The literature review will elaborate more on the impact of the natural gas price on electricity tariffs in the UK by using an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The historical data on natural gas prices have been collected from the official government website of the UK and from the ofgem website. The sample size was taken annually from January 2010 to August 2020. Our empirical study is close to (Mohammadi, 2009) who investigate the nexus between electricity prices and fossil fuel prices in the U.S economy.

DETERMINANTS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PHILIPPINES: 1981-2019

<p>This paper identifies the determinants of the balance of payments fluctuations in the Philippines. Specifically, it presented the trends and movements of a balance of payments, interest rate, inflation rate, gross domestic product growth rate, and real exchange from 1981 to 2019. The study used Johansen Co-integration, Granger Causality, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to analyze this study. Johansen's Co-integration analysis revealed that the determinants of the balance of payments interest rate (IR), inflation rate (INF), an exchange rate (EX), and real GDP are rejected at a 5% significant level. On the other hand, unrestricted VAR model, there exists a relationship between the balance of payments (BOP), interest rate (IR), and inflation rate (INF). Granger causality test results revealed that BOP does not Granger cause IR and INF does not Granger cause BOP are rejected at the 5% significant level because the causality test results are significant. BOP and IR have a unidirectional relationship. Moreover, results show that there is unidirectional causality generally running from the balance of payment (BOP) to the interest rate (IR) and inflation rate (INF) to the balance of payment (BOP).</p><p><br /><strong>JEL:</strong> H10; H20; H30</p>

Does the House Hold Consumption Expenditure and Government Expenditure Influences the Economic Growth in Tanzania? Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Analysis

This study investigates the contribution of the house hold consumption expenditure and government expenditure on economic growth in Tanzania employing unrestricted vector autoregressive (URVAR) model. Unit root and cointegration analysis determined using Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Johansen cointegration tests. The findings show that all the variables are non-stationary at level and stationary at first difference as well as all variables are not cointegrated as such unrestricted vector autoregressive is inevitable in this paper. If the variables are cointegrated then the study would employ the vector error correction model (VECM). Also, Wald coefficient test conducted to determine jointly how these variables influences the economic growth in Tanzania. UNVAR model analysis in system of equation indicates that some variables have significant influence on economic growth that is house hold consumptions expenditure and government expenditure whereas other variables have no significant influence. Generally, in the first system of equation shows that jointly gross domestic product and house hold consumptions of the previous year’s influences the gross domestic product in current year while jointly government expenditures in previous years have on influence on economic growth in current year in Tanzania. In the second system of equation of UNVAR finds only jointly gross domestic product of the previous year’s influences the house hold consumption while other variables jointly are not influencing house hold consumptions in Tanzania. In the third system of equation of UNVAR analysis all the variables jointly influence the government expenditures in current year in Tanzania. Therefore, the empirical results suggest the deliberately government efforts to support these variables in order to boost the economic growth in Tanzania.

Nexus between Public Debts, Poverty and Unemployment Rates in Nigeria: A Vector AutoRegression (VAR) Approach

Notwithstanding the upsurge in public debts, it is absurd and worrisome to note that socioeconomic indicators like poverty and unemployment have shown gloomy pictures in Nigeria. The absurd situation makes it unclear on the precise nexus between public debts and unemployment rate on the one hand and poverty rate on the other hand. Consequently, this paper analysed the nexus between public debts, poverty and unemployment in Nigeria. Secondary data of public debts (measured by internal and external debts), poverty and unemployment rates were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics during the period 1981-2021. Using an unrestricted vector auto-regression model, the study indicated that neither internal nor external debts had any significant impact on poverty; however, they influence the level of unemployment rates in Nigeria. Impliedly, most of the public debts incurred within the period of investigation were not growth-oriented and could partly be explained by the fact that most of the borrowings were mainly to finance trade deficits, which were mainly consumable goods. The paper recommended that the current debt-togross domestic product ratio of less than 20 percent should be sustained to ensure that debt remains within the internationally recommended threshold for developing economies like Nigeria. Also, future public borrowings should be targeted at specified productive sectors of the economy that would engender growth in the long-run in terms of job creation and poverty alleviation; this can be achieved via the procedure of tying every public borrowing to specific growth-driving project that are oriented towards job creation and alleviation of poverty

Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressive models: comparison of direct and iterated multistep methods

PurposeThe paper compares multi-period forecasting performances by direct and iterated method using Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models.Design/methodology/approachThe paper adopts Bayesian VAR models with three different priors – independent Normal-Wishart prior, the Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS). Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare forecasting performances. An empirical study using US macroeconomic data are shown as an illustration.FindingsIn theory direct forecasts are more efficient asymptotically and more robust to model misspecification than iterated forecasts, and iterated forecasts tend to bias but more efficient if the one-period ahead model is correctly specified. From the results of the Monte Carlo simulations, iterated forecasts tend to outperform direct forecasts, particularly with longer lag model and with longer forecast horizons. Implementing SSVS prior generally improves forecasting performance over unrestricted VAR model for either nonstationary or stationary data.Originality/valueThe paper finds that iterated forecasts using model with the SSVS prior generally best outperform, suggesting that the SSVS restrictions on insignificant parameters alleviates over-parameterized problem of VAR in one-step ahead forecast and thus offers an appreciable improvement in forecast performance of iterated forecasts.

Interdependence between WTI Crude Oil Prices and the US Equity Market

The author checks the cointegration between WTI oil market and the US market of stocks represented by the S&P index. As it turns out not to exist, short-term relations are investigated. The study confirms that crude oil market significantly influences the stock market in the short run, however it does not give an unambigous answer if this impact is made by oil itself or together with the GBP/USD currency rate. Furthermore, the relation does not go in another direction which means that the stock market has no impact on the oil market. The Unrestricted Vector Autoregression model is built. The author uses weekly data and the research period is from April 1990 to May 2021. The study implies that stable crude oil prices are desirable in order not to destabilize stock markets whose instability threatens the real economy. Conclusions are vital for a wide group of entities such as policy makers, authorities, institutional and individual investors, as well as other financial market participants.

IMPACT OF CAPITAL FLIGHT ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

Capital flight has continued to generate debate across the world. Most developing countries Nigeria in particular are having their own share of the problem. This are burning issues regarding its actual measurement and direction of flow. This study is set to examine the effect of capital flight on economic development in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Due to the stochastic nature of time series data, diagnostic tests were conducted to ascertain the behavior of the series. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) test results are reported. Based on these tests, the all the variables in the model became stationary after first differencing, that is, they are integrated of order one I(1). Because of this order of integration, the Johansen co-integration test was conducted to check for possible long run relationship. Due to the absence of long-run relationship, unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was specified and used for the estimation. Results from the VAR estimation reveal that Poverty is an increasing function of poverty. There is a negative impact of capital flight on economic development in Nigeria over the period of study. External debt is detrimental to economic development if mismanaged. Floating exchange rate where multiple rates are charged in different markets is detrimental to economic development in Nigeria over the period of study. This paper recommended that training in skill acquisition should be encouraged in Nigeria in order to alleviate poverty. Capital flight should be checked with serious penalties on the perpetrators. In addition, external debt should be channel to economic uses. And finally floating exchange rates where different rates are charged in different markets is should be abolished in Nigeria.

DOES THE LAW OF ONE PRICE (LOP) HOLDS IN THE INTERNATIONAL BARLEY MARKETS

A price time-series data of barley for a period of 49 years (1970-2019) sourced from the FAO database was used to determine the horizontal market integration of barley among some selected major market players in barley trade in the world. The chosen markets are Australia, Canada, Iran, Turkey and the USA based on the availability of up-to-date large span data. The collected data were analyzed using inferential statistics- unit root tests, co-integration tests, unrestricted vector autoregressive model, Granger causality test and impulse response function. The empirical evidence showed that the law of one price (LOP) exists among the selected markets i.e. there is perfect price communication among the markets in the long run, thus highly integrated. Besides, Australian and Canadian markets established a long-run equilibrium, thus have a stable price in the long run. Furthermore, the import and export hubs of barley in the trade are Canadian, USA and Turkey markets while Iranian and Australian markets are large consumer markets. The empirical evidence showed Canadian and USA markets to be the major players in the trade while the Australian market is a follower in the trade. All the selected markets have promising future prices with a little inflationary trend which will owe to supply fluctuation. The reinforcement of physical infrastructure, the use of ICTs and well-defined consistent agricultural policy/market initiatives would thus lead to the global creation of a single uniform economic market for barley.

Stationary Bootstrap Based Multi-Step Forecasts for Unrestricted VAR Models

This paper proposes a new asymptotically valid stationary bootstrap procedure to obtain multivariate forecast densities in unrestricted vector autoregressive models. The proposed method is not based on either backward or forward representations, so it can be used for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models. Also, it is computationally more efficient compared to the available resampling methods. The finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo studies as well as a real-data example. Our records reveal that the proposed method is a good competitor or even better than the existing methods based on backward and/or forward representations.

Does a J-Curve Effect Exist in Nepal-India Trade?

Nepal is facing a persistent negative trade balance with India. One of the ways a nation can improve its trade balance is by imposing or raising tariffs on its import. An import tariff raises the price of imports, lowers its domestic demand, and ultimately lowers its import, which leads to an improvement in the country’s trade balance in the long run. However, consumers take time to change their habit or find a substitute in response to a price rise, a tariff led price increase of imports only increases the import bills, thereby, worsens the nation’s trade balance in the short run. Thus, the short-run deterioration and the long-run improvement of trade balance following the imposition of an import tariff produce a J-curve phenomenon. This study tests the presence of a J-curve effect, if any, on Nepal-India trade. Our study defines BOT as a dependent variable and measures it as Nepal’s export to India minus Nepal’s import from India. Our independent variables include RRGDP (ratio of real GDP) measured as Nepal’s real GDP divided by India’s real GDP, and RP (relative price) measured as the ratio of Nepal’s consumer price index to India’s consumer price index. We estimate an unrestricted vector autoregressive model (VAR). The coefficient of the variables

Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse

The main research question of this paper is to assess Sierra Leone’s preparedness for adopting a fully-fledged or lite Inflation Targeting (IT) framework amid macroeconomic and structural bottlenecks experienced in the domestic economy. Several theoretical and empirical perspectives were reviewed to bring out cogent insights on the subject matter. With the use of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, relevant macroeconomic variables ranging from 2010Q2 to 2019Q4 were utilised to assess plausible outcomes, aided with some iterative shock impulses, variance decomposition, and historical decomposition, to explain the reaction of inflation to specific factors in Sierra Leone. The study outcome suggests that Sierra Leone as a supply-driven economy is inducing a high level of inflation on account of the pass-through effect of high prices to consumers in the domestic economy. This to a greater extent is undermining monetary policy management, which gives credence to the fact that authorities at the Bank of Sierra Leone should not switch to inflation targeting in the short and medium-term on the basis that monetary policy actions could instigate further price increases of goods and services, underpinned by weak real sector operations and a somewhat dollarized domestic market. At best, there is a need for BSL to continue its current policy methodology, while working in ensuring monetary policy actions are transparent and well communicated at all times to getting inflation to a single-digit.

An Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Nigeria

In theory Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is believed to have several positive relationship with the economic growth of the host country (such as productivity gains, technology transfers, the introduction of new processes, managerial skills and know - how, employee training) and in general it is a significant factor in modernizing the host country’s economy and promoting its growth. It is in this light that this paper offered to take the impact of FDI on Nigeria’s economic growth. Using annual data over the period 1981 to 2014, this study examines the contributions of FDI to Nigeria’s economic growth. Employing an unrestricted vector autoregressive model (VAR), empirical estimates showed that over the period of analysis, FDI had a negative influence on economic growth in the country. This is contrary to the theories highlighting the importance of improving trade openness giving FDI inflows a prominent role in the development strategy of a country. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Empirical, Vector Autoregressive DOI: 10.7176/JESD/11-8-16 Publication date: April 30 th 2020

Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interactions on Stock Returns in Nigeria

This research examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on stock returns in Nigeria. The researchers utilized ex-post facto research design using the time series data of the annual market values of All Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). It was yearly data on the various monetary policy and fiscal policy variables obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins covering from 1985 to 2017. The result of the cointegration test reveals a long-run relationship between monetary variables and stock returns. Meanwhile, the overall result shows that monetary policy has a significant effect on stock return. However, there is no long-run relationship between fiscal policy variables and stock returns. Meanwhile, the result of the Unrestricted Vector Autoregression model shows that fiscal policy has a significant effect on stock prices in Nigeria. On the other hand, a long-run relationship exists between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and stock returns. It has a significant effect on stock returns in Nigeria. This implies that monetary and fiscal policies have a significant effect on stock returns in Nigeria. It is recommended that there is a need for the federal government to harmonize fiscal and monetary policies in the same direction and to equally design policies that promote a free market for the growth of the Nigerian economy.

The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country

This longitudinal study examines the impact that terrorist attacks within a representative group of European countries can have on the tourism demand of a South European country with no record of terrorism attacks. In order to analyze the connections between terrorist attacks and tourists' arrivals, occurred between 2002 and the end of 2016, an Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model was used for multivariate time series analysis. The main results show that terrorist attacks have a strong impact on tourist arrivals and confirm the existence of terrorism spillover, namely the substitution and generalization effects phenomena.

Relationship between VAT Revenue and Intermediate Consumption - A VAR Approach

Abstract The paper analyzes the relationship between value added tax revenue and intermediate consumption in the case of Romania in the period January 2007 – September 2018 (quarterly data), using an unrestricted Vector Autoregression Model based on the rate of dynamic taxation’s level (in terms of value added tax revenue) and the rate of dynamic intermediate consumption. In literature, is questioned only the relationship between tax revenue and gross domestic product. Our study emphasizes the link between tax revenue and parts of the own tax base. The relationship is questioned in both directions, namely with respect to the manner in which value added tax affect intermediate consumption and in terms of the influence of intermediate consumption on value added tax revenue in the case of Romania. Given that a significant part of the corporate taxpayers have left the value added tax regime, intermediate consumption is considered instead of final consumption. The analysis is focused on a specific relationship in order to assess the general impact of indirect taxation on production capacity of the undertakings. Our findings reveal that there is not a direct relationship between intermediate consumption and value added tax revenue at the level of Romania despite a such relationship at the EU-28 level. Moreover, in the case of Romania a high volatility of intermediate consumption was found. Both the breakage between tax revenue and his tax base, and volatility of the tax base suggest an influence of hidden economy. For future concerns about tax policy development, a specific model for estimating and forecasting value added tax revenue should be developed for Romania. On the other hand, based on the findings of this study, a model can be developed to assess the impact of the hidden economy on the value added tax revenue.

The Impact of Second Generation FDI Reforms on the Stock Market Development in India

The Governments took a series of initiatives as a measure of second-generation reforms in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The FDI reform initiatives had started since 1991 as foundation of Indian economy and the governments over the period contributed to emerge India as destination for Foreign Direct Investment in the world. These reforms played an important role in capital formation in stock markets and developments in the economy. This paper attempts to study the impact of second-generation economic reforms in FDI and its impact on Stock Market Development (SMD) in India. This paper uses a multivariate unrestricted VAR (Vector Autoregression) model to investigate the impact of the reforms in FDI on the development of stock market in India. The study used the quarterly data of FDI inflow, exchange rates and terms of trade (Exports/Imports) from 2004 to 2017 to find the long run impact of FDI reforms on the SMD. The SMD is the ratio of stock market capitalization to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. The study uses the unrestricted VAR to generate impulse responses to find the impact of one standard deviation innovation change in one variable on other. Further, Unit Root Test, Granger causality test statistics and variance decomposition (VDC) respectively have been applied to identify variables stationarity, the causality and percent change in variance due to one standard deviation innovation in other variable. The findings of the study conclude that there were structural breaks in the data during 2007Q1 and 2011Q1 due to US financial crisis that lead to high volatility in the Indian stock market. Further, finding concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between foreign direct investment and the stock market development. Finally, study revealed that FDI and terms of trade are also having a bidirectional causality where shock in terms of trade brings a change of 25.15 percent in FDI inflows.

Implications of oil price shocks on net oil-importing African countries

The study examines the implications of oil price shocks on developing net oil-importing countries. The study considers the casual relationship, impulse response function, and vector decomposition between oil prices and macroeconomic variables using an unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model. In addition, other robust econometric techniques were applied to the time series of oil prices, GDP per capita (GDPC), and energy consumption from 1980 to 2015. Mix results were obtained for the selected African countries - Cape Verde, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and The Gambia. Evidence from the granger test shows that oil prices cause GDPC in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, analyses from the VAR model and Impulse response indicate that oil price increase will temporarily increase GDP per capita in the short run for the selected countries. The study recommends policies that can effectively mitigate the adverse effect of the oil price increase.