Unrealistic Pessimism Research Articles

When Pre-Release Optimism Meets Post-Release Reality: Understanding Reentry Success Through a Longitudinal Framework Assessing Pre- and Post-Release Perceptions

In the identity theory of desistance, optimism is important to individual transformation. Yet unfounded optimism could be detrimental in reentry. This study developed and tested a typology of the direction and accuracy of pre-release expectations. Using longitudinal data collected pre- and post-release from 369 men and women released from prison or jail in six states, we assessed which patterns (realistic optimism, unrealistic optimism, realistic pessimism, unrealistic pessimism) predict reentry success at 6- and 12-months post-release, including finding employment and housing and avoiding criminal behavior, rearrest, and illicit drug use. Realistic optimism was found to be positively associated with reentry success in some domains. Implications for reentry practitioners are discussed.

Temporal aspects of unrealistic optimism and robustness of this bias: A longitudinal study in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Numerous studies on unrealistic optimism (UO) have shown that people claim they are less exposed to COVID-19 infection than others. Yet, it has not been assessed if this bias evolves; does it escalate or diminish when the information about the threat changes? The present paper fills this gap. For 12 months 120 participants estimated their own and their peers' risk of COVID-19 infection. Results show that UO regarding COVID-19 infection is an enduring phenomenon-It was the dominant tendency throughout almost the entire study and was never substituted by Unrealistic Pessimism. While the presence of UO-bias was constant, its magnitude changed. We tested possible predictors of these changes: the daily new cases/deaths, the changes in governmental restrictions and the mobility of participants' community. Out of these predictors, only changes in governmental restrictions proved to be significant- when the restrictions tightened, UO increased.

Unrealistic pessimism and obsessive-compulsive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic: Two longitudinal studies.

ObjectiveUnrealistic pessimism (UP) is an aspect of overestimation of threat (OET) that has been associated with obsessive‐compulsive disorder/symptoms (OCD/OCS). During the COVID‐19 pandemic, UP may have played an important role in the course of OCD. To investigate the relationship, we conducted two longitudinal studies assuming that higher UP predicts an increase in OCS.MethodIn Study 1, we investigated UP in the general population (N = 1,184) at the start of the pandemic asking about overall vulnerability to infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 and UP regarding infection and outcome of severe illness. Further, OCS status (OCS+/−) was assessed at the start of the pandemic and 3 months later. In Study 2, we investigated UP in individuals with OCD (N = 268) regarding the likelihood of getting infected, recovering, or dying from an infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 at the start of the pandemic and re‐assessed OCS 3 months later.ResultsIn Study 1, UP was higher in the OCS+ compared to the OCS− group, and estimates of a higher overall vulnerability for an infection predicted a decrease in OCS over time. UP regarding severe illness predicted an increase in symptoms over time. In Study 2, UP was found for a recovery and death after an infection with SARS‐CoV‐2, but not for infection itself.ConclusionsExaggeration of one’s personal vulnerability rather than OET per se seems pivotal in OCD, with UP being associated with OCD/OCS+ as well as a more negative course of symptomatology over the pandemic in a nonclinical sample.Practitioner points Unrealistic optimism, a bias common in healthy individuals, is thought to be a coping mechanism promoting well‐being in the face of danger or uncertainty.The current study extends findings that its inversion, unrealistic pessimism, may play an important role in obsessive‐compulsive disorder and may also be involved in the development of the disorder.This study highlights the importance that prevention programs during a pandemic should include targeting unrealistic pessimism.

Consequences of unrealistic optimism and pessimism for actual behavior: An experimental evidence

In this study, we performed experiments to investigate the negative consequences of unrealistic optimism and pessimism. We also attempted to extend the theory of unrealistic optimism and pessimism by investigating how past events running contrary to expectations impact unrealistic optimism and pessimism. We made participants play an insurance decision game pertaining to a gamble for two consecutive rounds while inducing unrealistic optimism and pessimism within the context of the game.

Breast Cancer Risk Perception of First Degree Female Relatives of Breast Cancer Patients Influences Their Risk Reduction Behaviors: A Pre-Study Assessment

Background: Breast cancer is the second most common cancer affecting women worldwide. There is an increased risk of breast cancer among the first degree relatives. Perceived risk relates to an individual's belief about the probability or likelihood of developing some specified illness. Cancer fatalism is the belief that cancer is predetermined, beyond individual control, and necessarily fatal. Aim: To assess the self-perceived risk of breast cancer and screening and risk reduction behaviors among the first degree female relatives of breast cancer patients. Findings from this study can inform interventions to increase uptake of breast cancer screening services among relatives of breast cancer patients in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The results formed a baseline for designing a study on risk perception and risk reduction practices among first degree female relatives of patients diagnosed with breast cancer at Uganda Cancer Institute, Kampala, Uganda. Methods: Review of literature on risk perception and risk reduction practices of first degree relatives of breast cancer patients. We searched through various literature published in PubMed and oncology journals in HINARI published in English. All the studies were conducted among female relatives of breast cancer patients from world. All eligible papers were included in the review. The papers were carefully appraised to identify key outcomes of the studies. Results: Women were engaged in risk reduction behaviors like smoking cessation, reduction in alcohol intake, physical activity and screening for breast cancer. Women aged 54 years and below had a higher perceived lifetime risk of breast cancer (39.5%) compared with those aged ≥ 55 years (30.6%) who perceived themselves at lower risk. Levels of education have also been found key in determining an individual's perceived risk. Being unrealistically optimistic was significantly associated with high level of educational attainment while women who did not know their risk were less educated. Socioeconomic status has also been seen to influence breast cancer perceived risk. Unrealistic pessimism was frequent among women with a higher income status although a greater proportion of women who accurately perceived their 5-year risk of breast had a higher annual income. There was a significant association of the stage of breast cancer, time since diagnosis and perceived breast cancer risk among the relatives. Fatalistic beliefs about cancer prevention influenced prevention behaviors by promoting a sense of external locus of control changing beliefs about the value of specific behaviors, or reducing self-efficacy and motivation to perform prevention behaviors. Conclusion: High risk perception is associated with increase need to engage in risk reduction behaviors. Fatalism among women was the primary reason not to engage in breast cancer screening.

Correlates of misperception of breast cancer risk among Korean-American Women

ABSTRACTIn this study, the authors investigate the factors associated with misperception of breast cancer risk, including unrealistic optimism and unrealistic pessimism, among Korean-American women (KAW). Baseline data were collected between March 2010 and October 2011 from 421 KAW aged 40–65 years who participated in a community-based randomized intervention trial designed to promote breast and cervical cancer screening. Multivariate multinomial regression was performed to identify correlates of misperception of breast cancer risk among KAW. A total of 210 KAW (49.9%) had breast cancer risk perception consistent with their objective risk, whereas 50.1% of KAW in the study had some form of misperception of risk. Specifically, 167 participants (39.7%) were unrealistically optimistic about their own breast cancer risk; 44 (10.5%) were unrealistically pessimistic. In multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis, living with a partner and higher education were significantly associated with higher odds of having unrealistic optimism. High social support is associated with a lower likelihood of having a pessimistic risk perception. Higher worry is associated with a higher likelihood of having unrealistic pessimism. Misperception of breast cancer risk among KAW and related factors must be considered when developing behavioral interventions for this population.

Religiousness, Coping Styles, and Situational Optimism Among Nursing Home Residents

This study explored relationships between optimism and ways of coping among residents (n = 1347) in the United States. Realistic optimists used approach coping and drew strength from faith. Unrealistic optimists were more likely to be African American. Unrealistic pessimists used avoidance coping, had greater activities of daily living (ADL) impairment, and more medical conditions. Nursing home religious activities were associated with a lower probability of unrealistic pessimism. Prior church attendance interacted with ADL impairment to increase the probability of unrealistic pessimism. Implications of loss of church connection, maintaining faith, resilience among African Americans, and participating in religious activities in the nursing home are discussed.

Responsibility, metacognition and unrealistic pessimism in obsessive–compulsive disorder

Cognitive models stress the importance of cognitive belief domains (CBD) for the pathogenesis of obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD). However, the relative contribution of responsibility and metacognition – core aspects of CBD – to OC symptoms is not fully understood yet. Furthermore, two subcomponents of overestimation of threat (OET), overestimation of the personal probability (unrealistic pessimism) and overestimation of the general risk of negative events, require clarification. First, we investigated the relative contribution of responsibility and metacognition to OC symptoms. Second, we hypothesized that OCD patients overestimate the personal risk and display unrealistic pessimism. Thirty-four OCD patients and 34 healthy controls completed the Obsessive Beliefs Questionnaire (OBQ) and the Unrealistic Optimism Questionnaire (UO). Responsibility significantly predicted obsessive symptoms after controlling for metacognition. In contrast to previous findings, responsibility is not fully explained by metacognition. Finally, our results confirm unrealistic pessimism in OCD, even after controlling for depression.

Correlates of unrealistic risk beliefs in a nationally representative sample.

Unrealistically optimistic or pessimistic risk perceptions may be associated with maladaptive health behaviors. This study characterized factors associated with unrealistic optimism (UO) and unrealistic pessimism (UP) about breast cancer. Data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey were analyzed (N = 14,426 women). After accounting for objective risk status, many (43.8%) women displayed UO, 12.3% displayed UP, 34.5% had accurate risk perceptions (their perceived risk matched their calculated risk), and 9.5% indicated "don't know/no response." Multivariate multinomial logistic regression indicated that UO was associated with higher education and never smoking. UP was associated with lower education, lower income, being non-Hispanic Black, having ≥3 comorbidities, current smoking, and being overweight. UO was more likely to emerge in younger and older than in middle-aged individuals. UO and UP are associated with different demographic, health, and behavioral characteristics. Population segments that are already vulnerable to negative health outcomes displayed more UP than less vulnerable populations.

Expectations of benefit in survival in patients choosing treatment for localized prostate cancer

6549 Background: Three-fourths of screen-detected localized prostate cancer (LPC) has a Gleason score of <7. Untreated, such cancer has been projected to result in only 1% mortality over 15 years. However, despite serious risk of treatment side-effects, 94% of patients in the U.S. choose treatment for LPC. We surveyed, to our knowledge for the first time, how much longer survival patients expect by choosing treatment. Methods: 160 patients were studied before treatment for LPC. Their health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) exceeded 10 years except for 2 patients. They were asked about their perceived reduction in survival (PRS) due to the cancer, and perceived benefit in survival (PBS) due to treatment for the cancer. Baseline HALE was calculated based on age and co-morbidities. Results: Mean age of patients was 61 years. Mean Gleason score of cancer was 6.5. Patients were mostly healthy, educated, and had higher than average health literacy and family incomes. 66% patients had HALE of >20 years; of them, over half believed they would live less than 10 years without treatment (PRS). Similarly, 106 patients expected to live over 20 years with treatment, but 45% of them believed they would live less than 10 years without treatment (PBS). PRS and PBS were higher in patients with higher HALE, cancer grade, anxiety, and depression, but were unrelated to race or scores of co-morbidities, functional capacity, generic health-related quality of life, social support, education, health literacy, family income, and satisfaction with life, health, and education given by physicians in treatment choices. Conclusions: Choice of treatment for LPC was associated with unrealistic pessimism regarding survival without treatment, and unrealistic optimism regarding benefit in survival due to treatment. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Unrealistic pessimism about risk of coronary heart disease and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes

Objective We examined the accuracy of type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients’ risk estimates of developing coronary heart disease (CHD)/having a stroke as a consequence of diabetes and their mood about these risks. Methods Patients reported their perceived risks of developing CHD/having a stroke and rated their mood about these risks using a self-report measure. Using an objective risk calculator, they were then told their actual risk of CHD and stroke and their mood was re-assessed. Results Patients’ estimates of their risk of CHD/stroke were grossly inflated. A negative relationship between disease risk and mood was also seen where higher risk of actual and perceived CHD/stroke was related to worse mood. A positive relationship between mood and extent of perceptual error was further observed; the more inaccurate patients’ perceptions of CHD/stroke risk were, the better their mood. Mood improved after patients were given accurate risk information. Conclusion T2D patients are unrealistically pessimistic about their risk of developing CHD/stroke. These risks and the extent of perceptual risk error are associated with mood, which improves upon providing patients with accurate risk information about CHD/stroke. Practice implications These results have implications for the routine communication of risk to T2D patients.

Perception of future risk of breast cancer and coronary heart disease in female undergraduates

Women tend to overestimate their risk of breast cancer (BC) and underestimate their risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Perceived risk of illness has been shown to influence health behavior practices. This study assessed the relationship between perceived future risk of BC and CHD and relevant cognitive/emotional and behavioral variables in a sample of 133 racially/ethnically diverse female undergraduates. Results indicate unrealistic pessimism regarding risk of BC among peers and unrealistic optimism regarding personal risk of CHD. When compared to CHD, participants were significantly more worried about getting BC but less aware of BC risks. Perceived CHD risk was associated with exercise and diet; perceived BC risk was not associated with breast self-exams. Health promotion efforts may need to vary based on target illness.

Using the common sense model to understand perceived cancer risk in individuals testing for BRCA1/2 mutations.

The common sense model posits that individuals' understanding of illness is based upon somatic symptoms and life experiences and thus may differ significantly from the biomedical view of illness. The current study used the common sense model to understand cancer risk perceptions in 99 individuals testing for BRCA1/2 mutations. Specifically, we examined change from post-counseling to post-result in (1) absolute risk (risk of developing cancer in one's lifetime) and (2) comparative risk (risk relative to the general population). Results indicated that absolute risk showed a trend such that those with a personal history of cancer receiving uninformative negative results reported decreased absolute risk. Further, individuals receiving uninformative negative results reported decreased comparative risk. Those with no personal cancer history receiving informative negative results did not decrease in risk over time nor did their risk differ from those with a personal cancer history, evidencing unrealistic pessimism regarding their risk of cancer. The reasons provided for individuals' risk perceptions could be classified in terms of attributes of the common sense model and included the: (1) causes of cancer (e.g. family history, mutation status); (2) control or cure of cancer through health behaviors and/or surgery; and (3) perceived timeline for developing cancer (e.g. time left in life to develop cancer). We conclude that key to developing interventions to improve understanding of cancer risk and promoting effective cancer control mechanisms is an understanding of the specific reasons underlying individuals' perceptions of cancer risk.

Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.

Pessimistic Bias in Comparative Evaluations: A Case of Perceived Vulnerability to the Effects of Negative Life Events

This study tested the hypothesis that unrealistic pessimism characterizes comparative estimates of coping ability. Participants rated their ability to adjust to a range of negative life events in comparison to the abilities of other same-sex students at their college. Most coping estimates showed signs of unrealistic pessimism, in that students rated their own abilities as worse than those of other same-sex students. Analyses indicated that this effect was due, in part, to the presence of an egocentric bias and, in part, to the absence of a self-enhancement bias. First, pessimism appeared to arise because participants paid more attention to the difficulties that they would have coping with severe misfortunes than they paid to the difficulties that others would have. Second, pessimism appeared to arise because participants were not motivated to enhance their coping appraisals, given that they were optimistic that they would not experience these events in the future.

Perceived risk of tropical diseases in Malawi: Evidence of unrealistic pessimism and the irrelevance of beliefs of personal control?

Sociocognitive models of health preventative behaviour have rarely been applied in the developing world, despite their potential contribution in addressing major preventable health risks. One hundred and twenty individuals representative of the Malawian population were interviewed regarding beliefs about likelihood, severity, predictability and controllability of two prevalent tropical diseases - malaria and schistosomiasis. Data was also collected regarding adherence to recommended control practices for these two health risks. Subjects were drawn from two rural marshland locations. Results were interpreted in relation to an existing literature on unrealistic optimism, with subjects rating their personal risk as well as perceived risk for others. Across both locations and for both disease risks there was evidence of unrealistic pessimism in terms of their personal likelihood of infection. In one location unrealistic pessimism was further indicated by the rating of both diseases as less controllable by self than by others. Significant differences existed between the areas in terms of control practices. Adherence to control practices was associated with lower, rather than higher, ratings of predictability and controllability of health risk. These findings are interpreted with respect to recent analysis of the social function of optimistic bias across differing cultures, and the potential adaptive function of pessimism in settings with endemic health risk and control measures in part within the social, rather than the personal, domain.

Anxiety and Unrealistic Optimism

Substantial evidence suggest that people tend to be unrealistically optimistic that positive events will happen to them and that negative events will not. However, recent research indicates that under certain conditions they may be unrealistically pessimistic. Variations in the levels of optimism and pessimism experienced towards events are generally given cognitive explanations. A relation between optimism and pessimism and anxiety, a variable related to emotion as well as cognition, was investigated in the present study. An inverse correlation was found between how anxious female students in England felt about certain negative events and how unrealistically optimistic they were about the occurrence of those events. It was concluded that the degree of anxiety experienced toward a negative event may affect the level of unrealistic optimism or pessimism toward it.

Unrealistic Pessimism

Abstract Various data suggest that individuals tend to be unrealistically optimistic about the future. People believe that negative events are less likely to happen to them than to others. The present study examined if the optimistic bias could be demonstrated if a threat is not (as it has been researched up to the present) potential, incidental, and familiar, but real, common, and unfamiliar. The present research was conducted after the explosion at the atomic power station in Chernobyl, and it was concerned with the perception of threat to one's own and to others' health due to consequences of radiation. The female subjects believed that their own chance of experiencing such health problems were better than the chances of others. Thus, in these specific conditions, unrealistic optimism was not only reduced but the reverse effect was obtained: unrealistic pessimism.