Unobservable Inputs Research Articles

Value relevance of fair value hierarchy

Implementing accounting standard 68 (PSAK 68) adopted by IFRS 13 has brought changes in reflecting the market value previously explained by earnings per share and book value. This study investigates the relevance of fair value estimates as measured by the beta coefficient in firms in the financial industry. Specifically, the study focuses on whether the hierarchy of fair value financial liabilities and assets of the firms can affect the market value. This is quantitative research using archival methods. Sampling used a purposive sampling technique with a sample of 240 firm-years. The results showed that financial assets for level 2 (inputs other than quoted prices that were observable directly or indirectly) and level 3 (unobservable inputs generated by entities) positively had value relevance. All three hierarchy fair values of financial liabilities fair value negatively had value-relevance. These results indicate that investors pay higher financial assets for levels 2 and 3 than level 1. Meanwhile, the value relevance of financial assets and liabilities, as measured by R-squared, was relevant. This suggests that investors also trust that each hierarchy's fair value affects the market value. The findings of this study have significant implications for the advancement of the clean surplus theory. The theory posits that the company's market value can be explained by the fair value of financial assets using level 2 and level 3 as well as level 1, level 2, and level 3 financial liabilities.

Value-relevance of reported changes in fair values and measurement-related fair value disclosures: evidence from the Australian real estate industry

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the value-relevance of changes in fair values of investment property reported under International Accounting Standards (IAS) 40 and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13.Design/methodology/approachMultivariate regression models are used to regress cumulative market-adjusted stock returns of real estate firms on changes in fair values, along with control variables and corporate governance variables, in order to examine the research question.FindingsUsing hand-collected data from the Australian Real Estate Industry (AREI), the authors find that changes in fair values of investment property are value-relevant for equity investors. The authors further find that using unobservable inputs in an active market (Level 3 inputs) does not diminish the information content of fair values. The authors document that properties valued exclusively by directors have a significantly reduced value-relevance, whereas property valuations made collectively by both directors and independent valuers have superior value-relevance, possibly owing to the combination of inside knowledge and externally imposed monitoring. Collectively, the findings suggest that in the real estate industry, where unobservable inputs are commonly used to determine fair values of properties, the fair values determined subjectively are perceived to be sufficiently informative and relevant.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors' findings have important implications for accounting standard-setters in considering whether an external valuation should be required and whether the extensive measurement-related fair value disclosure requirements are useful.Originality/valueThe study extends previous archival evidence and complements prior commentaries on experimental and analytical work in the Australian regulatory environment.

Brand valuation: an innovative approach based on the risk difference

Research background: Among academicians, a growing interest in brand valuation methods can be observed since the 1980s, when it became obvious that firms have off-balance sheet assets which have a significant effect on their value. Moreover, in a number of cases, the need to value the brand arises due to the reporting requirements or transactional and other intrafirm reasons. The existing methods used so far have commonly focused on changes in variables such as sale prices, changes in customer behaviour, or sales volumes and very often lead to different results, even when valuing the same brand. We believe that the risk factor has been neglected in these methods, although having a significant impact on the brand valuation.
 Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to formulate an alternative brand valuation approach based on the risk difference. This is defined as the difference between the risk to which a producer with a certain brand is exposed and the risk of the producer without a brand.
 Methods: Firstly, a set of assumptions was defined concerning the issue what conditions are required to be applied to use the proposed methodological approach. Next, the concept itself is formulated and tested while using the case study approach. Hence, in conditions of a model company, the method was verified with specific data. The results were also compared with the reproduction cost approach.
 Findings & value added: This paper presents a novel brand valuation method based on the risk difference. Building on a thought experiment, we compare an incumbent with a brand rather than with an average producer, which is a commonly used approach, with a new entrant to the market. We argue that in comparison to existing methods, our methodological approach reduces the number of unobservable inputs in the brand valuation process, and thus increases the accuracy and reliability of its results. Our method supports both researchers and practitioners to establish a better understanding between the well-established financial theories and new directions in brand valuation research.

Valuation Risk at European Banks: Empirical Evidence

The risk that a financial institution will experience a loss because it did not accurately determine the fair value of the financial instruments on its balance sheet is known as Valuation Risk (VR). That risk is sometimes heightened because determining fair value is not always a simple or straightforward task. When market data is scarce or unavailable, or markets turn illiquid, banks tend to rely upon internally developed valuation models that use unobservable inputs, which may amplify VR. VR has attracted growing supervisory attention. Several supervisory agencies internationally have voiced concern over banks holding vast amounts of instruments that are potentially exposed to valuation uncertainty and the potential knock-on effects this VR could have on the stability of the financial system. Following up to our previous work discussing VR methodology and practice, this whitepaper seeks to expand the analysis by investigating European banks’ exposure to VR from a more quantitative perspective. To this end, we collected the evidence available from banks’ disclosures, looked for patterns, and drew as many sound conclusions as possible. However, in doing so, we encountered a frustrating reality: inadequacies in available data make it difficult to build an accurate view of these risks. We realized that the lack of data itself is an important lesson, as it informs us that crucial information is missing in banks’ disclosure. This paper delivers the results of the narrower analysis allowed by the limited data and delves into the implication of these constraints. The lack of data thwarts efforts to build an accurate view of the risks truly resting on financial institutions’ balance sheets. This is a serious matter. European banks hold amounts of assets and liabilities potentially exposed to VR that exceed their regulatory capital by many multiples. Even a relatively small unexpected shock or estimation error in instrument valuations could significantly impact banks’ capitalization and resilience. In the debate over VR, we believe a joint action by supervisors and standard setters to deepen banks’ disclosure of their holdings of assets and liabilities potentially more exposed to VR would significantly increase transparency and risk-awareness in the financial industry. By increasing clarity and transparency around bank risks through increased disclosure, banks can enhance public trust and allow observers and analysts to better assess bank balance sheets, leading to share prices that more closely reflect bank risks.

Do fair value adjustments excluded from net income convey new information that is complementary to GAAP earnings?

We exploit banks’ recently mandated quarterly fair value disclosures to perform the first short-window event study of fair value adjustments excluded from net income. We find these fair value adjustments are positively associated with short-window stock returns and accentuate investors’ response to GAAP earnings, suggesting that these adjustments are complementary to GAAP earnings. These results concentrate in the period surrounding the financial crisis and in banks’ loan portfolios, where fair values depend on credit quality information not fully available in the public domain. Our results suggest that (i) fair value adjustments that rely on unobservable inputs reflect new information at their disclosure date that investors incorporate into price, (ii) these adjustments help investors interpret GAAP earnings, and (iii) these effects are limited to periods where fair values diverge significantly from book value. Overall, our study suggests that investors benefit from having both GAAP earnings and fair value information.

The decision usefulness of reported changes in fair values and fair value measurement-related disclosure for debtholders: evidence from Australian real estate industry

Purpose This paper aims to examine the information content of changes in fair values of investment property reported under international accounting standards (IAS) 40 and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 13 to debtholders. This study further examines the effect of fair value hierarchy inputs, valuer types and the quality of fair value measurement-related disclosure on the information usefulness of changes in fair value. Design/methodology/approach This paper performs a panel regression on the cost of debt capital and changes in fair value of investment properties, and fair value measurement features using data covering periods 2007–2015 from Australian real estate companies. Findings The findings suggest that changes in fair value of investment property are informative about the real estate firm’s future cash flow to debtholders. Also, the findings show that the use of unobservable inputs in an active market (Level 3 inputs) and Level 2 has no different impacts on the cost of debts. Also, this paper documents that employing the directors solely in valuation may lead to a higher cost of debts. Furthermore, this paper reports that an extensive fair value disclosure appears no additional value in the debt decision. Originality/value Collectively, the findings indicate that although the use of unobservable inputs is common in the real estate sector, information on the changes of the fair value of investment properties are informative to debtholders. The findings have important implications for accounting standard setters to consider revisiting the IAS 40 and IFRS 13 on whether the independent valuation should be required and whether the extensive disclosure requirement is worthwhile.

Expected hypothetical completion probability

AbstractUsing high-resolution player tracking data made available by the National Football League (NFL) for their 2019 Big Data Bowl competition, we introduce the Expected Hypothetical Completion Probability (EHCP), a objective framework for evaluating plays. At the heart of EHCP is the question “on a given passing play, did the quarterback throw the pass to the receiver who was most likely to catch it?” To answer this question, we first built a Bayesian non-parametric catch probability model that automatically accounts for complex interactions between inputs like the receiver’s speed and distances to the ball and nearest defender. While building such a model is, in principle, straightforward, using it to reason about a hypothetical pass is challenging because many of the model inputs corresponding to a hypothetical are necessarily unobserved. To wit, it is impossible to observe how close an un-targeted receiver would be to his nearest defender had the pass been thrown to him instead of the receiver who was actually targeted. To overcome this fundamental difficulty, we propose imputing the unobservable inputs and averaging our model predictions across these imputations to derive EHCP. In this way, EHCP can track how the completion probability evolves for each receiver over the course of a play in a way that accounts for the uncertainty about missing inputs.

On Post-Crisis Banks’ Fair Value Measurement Disclosure

In this paper, we study the interplay between the popularity of valuation techniques adopted by the banks, the banks’ perception of the broader risk environment, and their relative performance. In examining this relationship, we rely on the performativity theory as it applies to the fields of accounting and economic sociology. Our data consists in newly disclosed accounting information collected from banks’10-K and 20-F reports from 2012 to 2015. We use four key ingredients in our model: (1) the banks’ return on equity as a proxy for performance; (2) the range of unobservable inputs as a proxy for the banks’ risk assessment; (3) the intensity of use of valuation techniques, as a proxy for the popularity of these techniques; (4) valuation technique as market devices in the performative process. The regression results suggest that that the intensity of use of valuation techniques mediates the performative process between valuation techniques and banks’ performance.

Fair Value Exposure, Changes in Fair Value and Audit Fees: Evidence from the Australian Real Estate Industry

AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between audit fees and both fair value exposure and changes in fair value of investment properties. The study is motivated by the limited and inconclusive evidence on the effect on audit fees of full fair value reporting for illiquid assets. Using hand‐collected data from the Australian real estate industry, we find a negative (positive) association between audit fees and fair value exposure (changes in fair value of investment properties). Our findings also indicate that the use of unobservable inputs in fair value estimates for investment properties does not significantly increase audit risk and audit fees. Further, we find that audit fees are higher for firms with fair values of investment – properties estimated by external and mixed valuers – compared to firms with fair values estimated by directors alone. This study enriches the audit fee literature by documenting auditors’ pricing decisions in an area that involves significant estimation and valuation risks.

Challenges in auditing fair value measurement and accounting estimates

Purpose Following the issuance of International Financial Reporting Standard 13 on fair value measurement (which became operational from January 2013), this study aims to investigate post-implementation challenges in the audit of fair value measurement and accounting estimates in the Nigerian context. Design/methodology/approach Data-collection was through a structured-questionnaire administered on 400 auditors from diverse backgrounds in terms of audit firm size, international affiliation and global presence. Findings Empirical data obtained from 277 auditors were analysed using descriptive statistics, factor analysis, one-way ANOVA, cluster analysis, independent sample t-test and one-way multivariate analysis of co-variance. It was observed that the two highest-ranking and most-prevalent challenges of auditing fair value measurement and accounting estimates are the tendency for managers to manipulate earnings owing to the inability of auditor to effectively test fair value estimates; and the difficulty in testing unobservable inputs due to the application of assumptions and judgement in arriving at estimates by preparers of financial reports. Originality/value While there is no significant difference in the perception of auditors on the audit challenges associated with fair value measurement and accounting estimates, there is a significant difference in the magnitude of audit challenges faced in verifying fair value measurements and accounting estimates across industry sectors. Concerned stakeholders (including but not limited to accounting regulators, auditing standard setters, audit firms, researchers) are importuned to come up with robust and pragmatic measures to curtain these challenges, as the inability of auditors to rigorously verify fair value estimates may jeopardize the very essence of fair value measurement which is to elevate financial reporting quality.

Do Investors Perceive Marking-to-Model as Marking-to-Myth? Early Evidence from FAS 157 Disclosure

Capitalizing on the disclosure mandated by FAS 157, I examine the equity market’s perception of the reliability of internally generated fair value estimates. For the sample of S&P 1,500 financial institutions for the first three quarters of 2008, I document a significantly positive association between stock price and fair values measured using unadjusted market prices (FAS 157 Level 1), other observable inputs (Level 2), and significant unobservable inputs (Level 3), with valuation coefficients generally increasing in the observability of the measurement inputs. Using the reconciliation of the change in Level 3 net assets, I then directly examine the periodic re-measurement of the fair value estimates and document a significantly positive association between Level 3 net gains and quarterly returns. This result manifests even among observations with thin capital cushion, poorer information environment, and weaker corporate governance. Collectively, the findings are consistent with the conjecture that investors perceive the management-provided, mark-to-model, fair value estimates sufficiently reliable to use in firm valuation and do not discard them as “markings-to-myth.”

A new approach to evaluating the cost-efficiency of complex hedging strategies: an application to electricity price–volume quanto contracts

Electricity quanto contracts improve the efficiency of financial risk management by accommodating the correlated price and volumetric risks of energy suppliers. The use of electricity quanto contracts, however, suffers from the high risk premiums associated with such tailor-made and illiquid financial instruments. As a result, it is of great interest to properly evaluate the cost-efficiency of these complex hedging deals. To address this concern, we propose a new hedging assessment model, the economic value of the incremental expected shortfall (EVIES), from a cost-efficiency perspective. Using EVIES, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation-based hedging framework. This framework overcomes the limits of traditional models by not resting on risk neutrality, market completeness or unobservable inputs. In our numerical examples, we assume that a fictitious power supplier has access to electricity price derivatives, weather derivatives and electricity quanto contracts, and we show that our proposed model can be applied to: (1) construct a cost-effective hedge against an electricity price–volume joint risk, (2) find a partial equilibrium for the valuation of electricity quanto contracts and (3) locate hedging solutions for achieving a specific risk management target.

Fair value accounting and earning management: The impact of unobservable inputs on earning quality. Evidence from the US

Accounting standard boards (IASB and FASB) are aimed at designing high-quality standards able to increase transparency and comparability of financial reporting. They have chosen fair value accounting (FVA) approach to improve the quality of financial reporting and at the same time help financial reporting users in the decision-making process. During recent years, an intense debate has arisen about the trade-off between relevance and reliability of accounting information using this approach. Many authors outline problems related to the fair value hierarchy valuation of financial instruments, in particular, the discretionary use of unobservable inputs in financial instruments valuation process in support of earnings management. Tutino and Pompili (2018) have identified a general negative correlation between the extent of FVA and earning quality. Stating this, the main objective of the paper, using the same approach of the previous one, is to identify the specific impacts of unobservable inputs on earning quality. Theory and previous literature suggest a major negative impact of unobservable inputs than observable ones on the quality of information provided within financial reporting. Results show a negative and strong relationship between FVA and earning quality for US banks that do not depend on the hierarchy of input used in the evaluation process. These results suggest new considerations on the reliability of fair value concerning the possibilities of manipulation given to the management with this approach.

Does the Mark-to-Model Fair Value Measure Make Assets Impairment Noisy?

A strong trend towards the implementation and use of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) changes the accounting reporting model and replaces cost-based measures with market-based measures. Based on the decision-making usefulness, the fair value has become a dominant measurement paradigm. However, among the three levels of the fair value hierarchy, the most controversial is the third one: unobservable inputs for the asset or liability. Regarding this level, fair value is estimated based on management’s expectations and projections. This method of fair value measurement is susceptible to manipulation, having poor verifiability and, therefore, poor reliability. This has raised the question: does the implementation of the mark-to-model fair value measures for asset impairment tests enhance the relevance and reliability of information in the financial reports? After a systematic literature review and a synthesis of high-quality contributions in this field, we conclude that the implementation of asset impairment tests which use mark-to-model fair value measures has not increased the quality and reliability of the information presented in financial statements; unfortunately, research has shown that companies are using that tool to manage their earnings and promote managers’ unethical behaviour. Furthermore, capital markets’ reaction to asset impairment announcements is negative.

Fair value accounting and management opportunism on earnings management in banking sector: First evidence

Accounting standard boards (IASB and FASB) have chosen fair value accounting (FVA) approach to help financial reporting users in the decision-making process. During recent years, an intense debate arose about the trade-off between relevance and reliability of accounting information in this approach. Even if fair value based information could be considered highly relevant and helpful from an investor’s perspective, many authors outline problems related to fair value hierarchy valuation of financial instruments. In particular, the discretionary use of unobservable inputs in financial instruments valuation process can support earnings management strategy underlying the risk for emerging agency problems, moral hazard behaviour and management short-termism. Stating that, after providing a literature review focused on management behaviour related to FVA, the main objective of the paper is identifying possible relationships between FVA valuations and earning quality observing a sample of US and European banks listed in the period 2011-2016 based on Šodan model (Sodan, 2015). Results show a negative and strong relationship between FVA and earning quality for US banks; results for European listed banks do not provide any strong evidence.

Approximating risk-free curves in sparse data environments

Accounting standards require one to minimize the use of unobservable inputs when calculating fair values of financial assets and liabilities. In emerging markets and less developed countries, zero curves are not as readily observable over the longer term, as data are often more sparse than in developed countries. A proxy for the extended zero curve, calculated from other observable inputs, is found through a simulation approach by incorporating two new techniques, namely permuted integer multiple linear regression and aggregate standardized model scoring. A Nelson Siegel fit, with a mixture of one year forward rates as proxies for the long term zero point, and some discarding of initial data points, was found to perform relatively well in the training and testing data sets.

Fair Value Accounting and Earnings Persistence: Evidence from International Banks

ABSTRACTUsing hand-collected data from a sample of 210 international banks during the period 2009 to 2013, we investigate whether fair value exposure, the proportion of financial assets measured at fair values, is associated with earnings persistence and whether the reliability of fair value measurements influences earnings persistence. We also examine whether the association between fair value measurements and earnings persistence is a function of institutional factors such as legal enforcement, the audit environment, and country-level auditor industry expertise. Results suggest that the use of fair values for balance sheet financial instruments enhances earnings persistence. Also, we find that the nondiscretionary fair value Level 1 assets (measured with observable inputs) are positively associated with earnings persistence, whereas the Level 2 assets (measured with indirectly observable inputs) and Level 3 assets (measured using unobservable inputs) are not associated with earnings persistence. We provide further evidence that there is a strong association between factors reflecting countrywide institutional structures and the predictive power of fair values based on discretionary measurement inputs (Level 2 and Level 3 assets) and we find that the moderating effect from these institutional factors is greater for Level 3 assets than for Level 2 assets. Additional tests suggest that the association between fair value estimates and earnings persistence is moderated by the classification of fair value assets (that is, through profit and loss versus other comprehensive income) and the reliability of fair value estimates.

Back-solving Unobservable Trademark Royalty Rates—The Case of ITT vs Xylem Group

Intangible assets like trademarks and patents are typically not traded on active markets, and the measurement of their fair values is based on valuation models that use significant unobservable (Level 3) inputs (i.e., guideline royalty rates under the relief-from-royalty method). Although widely accepted, all authors and lecturers emphasize the difficulties when determining guideline royalty rates under this method. Often, royalty rate analyses fail to survive audit, appeal, or other scrutiny. In developing robust Level 3 inputs, the appraiser must take into account all information that is reasonably available. A new approach is discussed, one that illustrates an alternative method with which to overcome difficulties in identifying and interpreting guideline license agreements. This approach was first introduced in a largely unnoticed lawsuit.

Board characteristics and the value relevance of fair values

This study investigates whether board characteristics affect the value relevance of fair value estimates in financial firms under International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 13. Specifically, the study will focus on whether a better and more efficient monitoring of managers, after the adoption of this new regulation, has an effect on the information quality of fair values. IFRS 13 requires firms to disclose a fair value hierarchy containing three levels: Level 1 (quoted prices in active markets), Level 2 (inputs other than quoted prices that are observable either directly or indirectly) and Level 3 (unobservable inputs generated by entities). The results indicate that, in a post IFRS 13 era, board independence and gender diversity have a positive effect on the value relevance of fair value estimates (Level 3). In addition, firms with larger boards have lower information quality of firm-generated fair value estimates. Moreover, initial analysis shows that all fair values are value relevant to investors and the adoption of IFRS 13 has blurred the lines between the three levels in the fair value hierarchy. Hence, IFRS 13 has successfully reduced the information asymmetry related to fair value estimates.

An empirical study of the relationship between earnings forecasts and risk profile

A new approach to examine the relationship between the excess of forecast based on characteristics toward management forecast and business risk is provided in this research at companies listed on the stock exchange in Tehran.The customary (traditional (approach is based on the regression of management forecast errors of past years. Therefore, the observable and unobservable inputs, such as managements, incentive misalignment, are used to predict management forecast errors. In this study, the future earnings is at first estimated by using characteristics including earnings per share, loss indicator, Neg. accruals per share , Pos. accruals per share ,asset growth , dividend indicator (non-payment of the dividend), Book-to-market value, share price and dividend per share for companies. Based on that, a criterion (CO) for estimating the earnings forecast error was developed, which is the alternative forecasted errors. One should notice that, business risk is considered as a measure of company performance. In this study, measures of business risk are volatility of earnings and dividend ratio. Research findings show that, there is a significant relationship between the CO and volatility of earnings, on the contrary there is no significant relationship between this criteria and dividend ratio.