Univariate Sensitivity Analyses Research Articles

Economic evaluation of trastuzumab in HER2-positive early breast cancer in Indonesia: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

Trastuzumab has significantly enhanced the survival and prognosis of individuals diagnosed with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer. Considering its relatively high costs, we aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of trastuzumab plus chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone in HER2-positive early breast cancer from an Indonesian healthcare payer's perspective. A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime health benefits and costs associated with trastuzumab treatment for a cohort of women with HER2-positive early breast cancer. Efficacy data and baseline characteristics in the base-case analysis were primarily derived from the 11-year results of the HERA trial. Costs were based on verified reimbursement data from Indonesia's Health and Social Security Agency (BPJS Kesehatan) of the year 2020. A scenario analysis was conducted with efficacy data based on the joint analysis from the NSABP B-31 and NCCTG N9831 trials, allowing for subgroup analysis by age at diagnosis. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the influence of parameter uncertainty. In the base-case analysis, the results indicated that the lifetime costs for trastuzumab plus chemotherapy and chemotherapy alone were US$33,744 and US$22,720, respectively, resulting in substantial incremental savings of US$11,024 per patient for the former. Trastuzumab plus chemotherapy also led to higher total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years gained (LYG), resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of US$6,842 per QALY and US$5,510 per LYG. In scenario analysis, the subgroup with an age at diagnosis <40 years old reflected the most cost-effective subgroup. Both the base-case and scenario analyses demonstrated cost-effectiveness with a willingness-to-pay threshold of three-times Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings and conclusions. In Indonesia, trastuzumab plus chemotherapy can be considered cost-effective compared to chemotherapy alone at a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times GDP, and it is likely most cost-effective in women <40 years of age.

Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin as add-on to standard of care for chronic kidney disease management in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT Objective The sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor empagliflozin was approved for treatment of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the basis of its demonstrated ability to slow CKD progression and reduce the risk of cardiovascular death. This analysis was performed to assess the cost effectiveness of empagliflozin plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone in the treatment of CKD in the UK. Methods A comprehensive, patient-level CKD progression model that simulates the evolution of risk factors for disease progression based on CKD-specific equations and clinical data was used to project a broad range of CKD-related complications. Patient baseline characteristics, distribution across Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) health states, and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR), and other parameters while on treatment, were derived from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial. UK cost and utilities/disutilities were sourced from the literature. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Annual discounting of 3.5% was applied on costs and outcomes. Results Over a 50-year horizon, SoC resulted in per-patient costs, life years, and QALYs of £95,930, 8.55, and 6.28, respectively. Empagliflozin plus SoC resulted in an incremental gain in life years (+1.04) and QALYs (+0.84), while decreasing per-patient costs by £6,019. Empagliflozin was more effective and less costly (dominant) with a net monetary benefit of £22,849 at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000. Although treatment cost was higher for empagliflozin, this was more than offset by savings in kidney replacement therapy. Empagliflozin remained highly cost-effective in patients with and without diabetes, and across scenario and sensitivity analyses. Limitations This analysis is limited by reliance on short-term clinical trial data and by uncertainties in modelling CKD progression. Conclusions Empagliflozin as an add-on to SoC for treatment of adults with CKD represents cost-effective use of UK National Health Service (NHS) resources.

Cost-utility analysis and drug pricing for tirzepatide for type 2 diabetes in the Chinese market compared with semaglutide.

To investigate the most matchable price of tirzepatide (TIRZ) compared with semaglutide (SEMA) in the treatment of type 2 diabetes in China. The patient cohort and clinical efficacy data were derived from the SURPASS-2 trial. Cost-utility analysis and a binary search were performed to identify the most matchable price of TIRZ from a Chinese healthcare provider's perspective. After lifetime simulation, the quality-adjusted life years of TIRZ 5, 10, 15 mg and SEMA 1 mg were 11.17, 11.21, 11.27 and 11.12 years, respectively. Despite an initial assumption that the annual cost of TIRZ equals that of SEMA, our analysis revealed that TIRZ is probably more cost-effective than SEMA. A thorough evaluation of pricing showed that the cost ranges for TIRZ at doses of 5, 10 and 15 mg were $1628.61-$1846.23, $1738.40-$2140.95 and $1800.30-$2430.81, respectively. After adjustment in the univariate sensitivity analysis, the cost ranges for TIRZ 5, 10 and 15 mg were $1542.68-$1757.57, $1573.00-$1967.16 and $1576.54-$2133.96, respectively. These cost intervals were validated through robust probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, except for the cost range for TIRZ 5 mg. This study shows that, using SEMA as a reference, the annual costs for TIRZ 10 and 15 mg are $1573.00-$1967.16 and $1576.54-$2133.96, respectively, for patients with type 2 diabetes in China.

Toripalimab plus chemotherapy in American patients with recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

Toripalimab, combined with gemcitabine and cisplatin, has been approved as the first-line treatment for recurrent or metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (RM-NPC), representing a significant milestone as the first FDA-approved innovative therapy for this condition. Despite this achievement, there's a lack of data on the cost-effectiveness of toripalimab for RM-NPC patients in the American context. To assess the cost-effectiveness of toripalimab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone, a 3-state partitioned survival model was constructed. The study involved participants with characteristics matching those in the JUPITER-02 trial. Cost and utility inputs were collected from literature. Main outcomes measured were quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, subgroup analyses, and scenario analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of results. The study found that the toripalimab regimen resulted in 4.390 QALYs at a cost of $361,813, while the chemotherapy-only regimen yielded 1.685 QALYs at a cost of $161,632. This translates to an ICER of $74,004/QALY, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated that utility values, discount rate, and the price of toripalimab significantly impact INMB. With an 87.10% probability of being cost-effective at a $150,000/QALY threshold, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis supports toripalimab plus chemotherapy as a viable option. Scenario analysis showed that toripalimab remains cost-effective unless its price increases by 125%. Additionally, a simulated 15-year study period increases the ICER to $88,026/QALY. Subgroup analysis revealed ICERs of $76,538/QALY for PD-L1 positive and $70,158/QALY for PD-L1 negative groups. Toripalimab in combination with chemotherapy is likely to be a cost-effective alternative to standard chemotherapy for American patients with RM-NPC. This evidence can guide clinical and reimbursement decision-making in treating RM-NPC patients.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluoride varnish application in preventing Root caries in elderly persons: a Markov simulation study

BackgroundRoot caries are prevalent issues that affect dental health, particularly among elderly individuals with exposed root surfaces. Fluoride therapy has shown effectiveness in preventing root caries, but limited studies have addressed its cost-effectiveness in elderly persons population. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a fluoride treatment program for preventing root caries in elderly persons within the context of Chinese public healthcare.MethodsA Markov simulation model was adopted for the cost-effectiveness analysis in a hypothetical scenario from a healthcare system perspective. A 60-year-old subject with 23 teeth was simulated for 20 years. A 5% sodium fluoride varnish treatment was compared with no preventive intervention in terms of effectiveness and cost. Tooth years free of root caries were set as the effect. Transition probabilities were estimated from the data of a community-based cohort and published studies, and costs were based on documents published by the government. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of data uncertainty.ResultsFluoride treatment was more effective (with a difference of 10.20 root caries-free tooth years) but also more costly (with a difference of ¥1636.22). The ICER was ¥160.35 per root caries-free tooth year gained. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the risk ratio of root caries in the fluoride treatment group influenced the result most. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, fluoride treatment was cost-effective in 70.5% of the simulated cases.ConclusionsRegular 5% sodium fluoride varnish application was cost-effective for preventing root caries in the elderly persons in most scenarios with the consideration of data uncertainty, but to a limited extent. Improved public dental health awareness may reduce the incremental cost and make the intervention more cost-effective. Overall, the study shed light on the economic viability and impact of such preventive interventions, providing a scientific basis for dental care policies and healthcare resource allocation.

The long-term cost-effectiveness of once-weekly semaglutide versus sitagliptin for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in China

BackgroundTo estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of once-weekly semaglutide versus sitagliptin as an add-on therapy for type 2 diabetes patients inadequately controlled on metformin in China, to better inform healthcare decision making.MethodsThe Cardiff diabetes model which is a Monte Carlo micro-simulation model was used to project short-term effects of once-weekly semaglutide versus sitagliptin into long-term outcomes. Short-term data of patient profiles and treatment effects were derived from the 30-week SUSTAIN China trial, in which 868 type 2 diabetes patients with a mean age of 53.1 years inadequately controlled on metformin were randomized to receive once-weekly semaglutide 0.5 mg, once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg, or sitagliptin 100 mg. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated from a healthcare system perspective at a discount rate of 5%. Univariate sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to test the uncertainty.ResultsOver patients’ lifetime projections, patients in both once-weekly semaglutide 0.5 mg and 1 mg arms predicted less incidences of most vascular complications, mortality, and hypoglycemia, and lower total costs compared with those in sitagliptin arm. For an individual patient, compared with sitagliptin, once-weekly semaglutide 0.5 mg conferred a small QALY improvement of 0.08 and a lower cost of $5173, while once-weekly semaglutide 1 mg generated an incremental QALY benefit of 0.12 and a lower cost of $7142, as an add-on to metformin. Therefore, both doses of once-weekly semaglutide were considered dominant versus sitagliptin with more QALY benefits at lower costs.ConclusionOnce-weekly semaglutide may represent a cost-effective add-on therapy alternative to sitagliptin for type 2 diabetes patients inadequately controlled on metformin in China.

Entrectinib as first-line vs. second-line therapy in ROS1 fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

The concept of cost-effectiveness is crucial for the optimal allocation of scarce healthcare resources. However, the cost-effectiveness of entrectinib in ROS1 fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has not been evaluated. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of entrectinib as a first-line treatment compared to its reservation for second-line therapy or the exclusive use of chemotherapy in ROS1 fusion-positive advanced NSCLC. A Markov model was created to assess the clinical outcomes and healthcare costs associated with these three treatment approaches. Cost and utility values were obtained from established literature and cost databases. To test model robustness, probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the first-line setting, where entrectinib was administered as the initial therapy, it yielded an extra 0.07 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at an incremental cost of $73,453, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1,090,594.30 per QALY compared to chemotherapy. Conversely, in the second-line setting, when entrectinib was used as a second-line therapy following chemotherapy, it provided an extra 0.11 QALYs at an incremental cost of $53,480, resulting in an ICER of $494,290.39 per QALY compared to chemotherapy. Furthermore, the analysis revealed that the cost of entrectinib and utility values of progressed disease were the most influential factors for the ICER. Considering the current pricing of entrectinib, it is not deemed cost-effective as a first-line or second-line therapy for patients with ROS1 fusion-positive advanced NSCLC when compared to chemotherapy. Alternatively, reserving entrectinib exclusively for second-line therapy might strike a balance between healthcare expenditures and patient outcomes.

Osimertinib in the treatment of resected EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis in the United States.

Background: In the double-blind phase III ADAURA randomized clinical trial, adjuvant osimertinib showed a substantial overall survival benefit in patients with stage IB to IIIA, EGFR-mutated, completely resected non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the use of adjuvant osimertinib to placebo in patients with stage IB to IIIA, EGFR-mutated, resected NSCLC. Methods: Based on the results obtained from the ADAURA trial, a Markov model with three-state was employed to simulate patients who were administered either osimertinib or placebo until disease recurrence or completion of the study period (3 years). Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000 per QALY. Both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out to explore the robustness of the model. Results: Osimertinib produced additional 1.59 QALYs with additional costs of $492,710 compared to placebo, giving rise to ICERs of $309,962.66/QALY. The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility of disease-free survival (DFS), cost of osimertinib, and discount rate had the greatest impact on the outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that osimertinib exhibited a 0% chance of being considered cost-effective for patients using a WTP threshold $150,000/QALY. Conclusion: In our model, osimertinib was unlikely to be cost-effective compared to placebo for stage IB to IIIA, EGFR-mutated, completely resected NSCLC patients from the perspective of a U.S. payer at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Etranacogene Dezaparvovec Versus Extended Half-Life Prophylaxis for Moderate-to-Severe Haemophilia B in Germany.

Haemophilia B is a rare genetic disease that is caused by a deficiency of coagulation factor IX (FIX) in the blood and leads to internal and external bleeding. Under the current standard of care, haemophilia is treated either prophylactically or on-demand via intravenous infusions of FIX. These treatment strategies impose a high burden on patients and health care systems as haemophilia B requires lifelong treatment, and FIX is costly. Etranacogene dezaparvovec (ED) is a gene therapy for haemophilia B that has been recently approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration and has received a recommendation for conditional marketing authorization by the European Medicines Agency. We aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of ED versus extended half-life FIX (EHL-FIX) prophylaxis for moderate-to-severe haemophilia B from a German health care payer perspective. A microsimulation model was implemented in R. The model used data from the ED phase 3 clinical trial publication and further secondary data sources to simulate and compare patients receiving ED or EHL-FIX prophylaxis over a lifetime horizon, with the potential for ED patients to switch treatment to EHL-FIX prophylaxis when the effectiveness of ED waned. Primary outcomes of this analysis included discounted total costs, discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness, and the incremental net monetary benefit. The annual discount rate for costs and effects was 3%. Uncertainty was examined via probabilistic analysis and additional univariate sensitivity analyses. Probabilistic analysis indicated that patients treated with ED instead of EHL-FIX prophylaxis gained 0.50 QALYs and experienced cost savings of EUR 1,179,829 at a price of EUR 1,500,000 per ED treatment. ED was the dominant treatment strategy. At a willingness to pay of EUR 50,000/QALY, the incremental net monetary benefit amounted to EUR 1,204,840. Depending on the price, ED can save costs and improve health outcomes of haemophilia patients compared with EHL-FIX prophylaxis, making it a potentially cost-effective alternative. These results are uncertain due to a lack of evidence regarding the long-term effectiveness of ED.

Dehydrated human amnion/chorion membrane to treat venous leg ulcers: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of dehydrated human amnion/chorion membrane (DHACM) in Medicare enrolees who developed a venous leg ulcer (VLU). This economic evaluation used a four-state Markov model to simulate the disease progression of VLUs for patients receiving advanced treatment (AT) with DHACM or no advanced treatment (NAT) over a three-year time horizon from a US Medicare perspective. DHACM treatments were assessed when following parameters for use (FPFU), whereby applications were initiated 30-45 days after the initial VLU diagnosis claim, and reapplications occurred on a weekly to biweekly basis until completion of the treatment episode. The cohort was modelled on the claims of 530,220 Medicare enrolees who developed a VLU between 2015-2019. Direct medical costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the net monetary benefit (NMB) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY were applied. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed to test the uncertainty of model results. DHACM applied FPFU dominated NAT, yielding a lower per-patient cost of $170 and an increase of 0.010 QALYs over three years. The resulting NMB was $1178 per patient in favour of DHACM FPFU over the same time horizon. The rate of VLU recurrence had a notable impact on model uncertainty. In the PSA, DHACM FPFU was cost-effective in 63.01% of simulations at the $100,000/QALY threshold. In this analysis, DHACM FPFU was the dominant strategy compared to NAT, as it was cost-saving and generated a greater number of QALYs over three years from the US Medicare perspective. A companion VLU Medicare outcomes analysis revealed that patients who received AT with a cellular, acellular and matrix-like product (CAMP) compared to patients who received NAT had the best outcomes. Given the added clinical benefits to patients at lower cost, providers should recommend DHACM FPFU to patients with VLU who qualify. Decision-makers for public insurers (e.g., Medicare and Medicaid) and commercial payers should establish preferential formulary placement for reimbursement of DHACM to reduce budget impact and improve the long-term health of their patient populations dealing with these chronic wounds. Support for this analysis was provided by MiMedx Group, Inc., US. JLD, and RAF are employees of MiMedx Group, Inc. WHT, BH, PS, BGC and WVP were consultants to MiMedx Group, Inc. VD, AO, MRK, JAN, NW and GAM served on the MiMedx Group, Inc. Advisory Board. MRK and JAN served on a speaker's bureau. WVP declares personal fees and equity holdings from Stage Analytics, US.

Universal Fetal Echocardiography for Pregestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of universal fetal echocardiogram for patients with pregestational diabetes mellitus by first-trimester hemoglobin A1c (Hb A1c) level. We developed a cost-effectiveness model comparing two strategies of screening for critical fetal congenital heart disease among patients with diabetes: universal fetal echocardiogram and fetal echocardiogram only after abnormal findings on detailed anatomy ultrasonogram. We excluded ventricular septal defect, atrial septal defects, and bicuspid aortic valve from the definition of critical fetal congenital heart disease. Probabilities and costs were derived from the literature. We used individual models to evaluate different scenarios: first-trimester Hb A1c lower than 6.5%, Hb A1c 6.5-9.0%, and Hb A1c higher than 9.0%. Primary outcomes included fetal death, neonatal death, and false-positive and false-negative results. A cost-effectiveness threshold was set at $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Univariable sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the drivers of the model. Universal fetal echocardiogram is not cost effective except for when first-trimester Hb A1c level is higher than 9.0% (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $638,100, $223,693, and $67,697 for Hb A1c lower than 6.5%, 6.5-9.0%, and higher than 9.0%, respectively). The models are sensitive to changes in the probability of congenital heart disease at a given Hb A1c level, as well as the cost of neonatal transfer to a higher level of care. Universal fetal echocardiogram became both cost saving and more effective when the probability of congenital heart disease reached 14.48% (15.4 times the baseline risk). In the Monte Carlo simulation, universal fetal echocardiogram is cost effective in 22.7%, 48.6%, and 62.3% of scenarios for each of the three models, respectively. For pregnant patients with first-trimester Hb A1c levels lower than 6.5%, universal fetal echocardiogram was not cost effective, whereas, for those with first-trimester Hb A1c levels higher than 9.0%, universal fetal echocardiogram was cost effective. For those with intermediate Hb A1c levels, universal fetal echocardiogram was cost effective in about 50% of cases; therefore, clinical judgment based on individual patient values, willingness to pay to detect congenital heart disease, and resource availability needs to be considered.

The impact of alternate HPV vaccination and cervical screening strategies in Japan: a cost-effectiveness analysis

The Japanese 2020 cervical screening guidelines recommend conventional cervical cytology screening every 2-years for women aged 20-69 years. The nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has also recently been approved in Japan. We therefore evaluated the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies alongside universal nonavalent HPV vaccination of girls (12-16 years). A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an age-specific Markov microsimulation model for Japan to evaluate total costs, quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), colposcopies, biopsies, precancer and cervical cancer treatments for 29 combined vaccination and screening strategies (conventional cytology, liquid-based cytology (LBC), HPV testing, and HPV self-collection). A cohort of 100,000 girls (12-16 years old) over a lifetime offered the nonavalent HPV vaccine was used (current vaccination coverage=0.08%, current screening coverage=43.7%). A discount rate of 3% was applied to costs and QALYs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess robustness of the findings. Costs were reported in US dollars (2023). Compared with conventional cytology, evaluated strategies would incur an additional cost of US$839,280-738,182,669 and gain 62,755-247,347 quality-adjusted-life-years. HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be most cost-effective (ICER= US$7511 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) of 1-times gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the probability of it being cost-effective was 70%. At historically high vaccination coverage (70%) ICERs decreased overall but did not affect the ranking of the most cost-effective strategy. While a 5-yearly interval became more cost-effective than a 3-yearly interval. Including HPV self-collection for under-screened women made all strategies more cost-effective. At current cervical screening participation (43.7%) and low vaccination coverage (<1.0%), HPV testing distinguishing HPV16/18 with reflex LBC (3-yearly) would be the most cost-effective screening strategy compared to conventional cytology (2-yearly). Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (17H03589) and Grants of the National Cancer Center Japan (Gan Kenkyu Kaihatsuhi 31-A-20 and 2023-A-23).

Cost-effectiveness of first-line versus second-line use of brigatinib followed by lorlatinib in patients with ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer.

The ALTA-1 L trial and EXP-3B arm of NCT01970865 trial found that both brigatinib and lorlatinib showed durable and robust responses in treating ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, brigatinib and lorlatinib treatments are costly and need indefinite administration until the disease progression. Thus, it remains uncertain whether using brigatinib followed by lorlatinib before chemotherapy is cost-effective compared to reserving these two drugs until progression after chemotherapy. We used a Markov model to assess clinical outcomes and healthcare costs of treating ALK-positive NSCLC individuals with brigatinib followed by lorlatinib before chemotherapy versus a strategy of reserving these drugs until progression after chemotherapy. Transition probabilities were estimated using parametric survival modeling based on multiple clinical trials. The drug acquisition costs, adverse events costs, administration costs were extracted from published studies before and publicly available data. We calculated lifetime direct healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the perspective of a United States payer. Our base-case analysis indicated that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of using first-line brigatinib followed by lorlatinib compared with second-line brigatinib followed by lorlatinib is $-400,722.09/QALY which meant that second-line brigatinib followed by lorlatinib had less costs and better outcomes. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated the results were most sensitive to the cost of brigatinib. Probability sensitivity analysis revealed that using brigatinib followed by lorlatinib before chemotherapy had a 0% probability of cost-effectiveness versus delaying these two drugs until progression after chemotherapy at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses conducted revealed the robustness of this result, as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios never exceeded the willingness-to-pay threshold. Using brigatinib as first-line treatment followed by lorlatinib for ALK-positive NSCLC may not be cost-effective given current pricing from the perspective of a United States payer. Delaying brigatinib followed by lorlatinib until subsequent lines of treatment may be a reasonable strategy that could limit healthcare costs without affecting clinical outcomes. More mature data are needed to better estimate cost-effectiveness in this setting.

Economic evaluation of personalized vs. standard dosing of 5-fluorouracil in first-line chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer in Australia.

Using pharmacokinetics (PK)-guided 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) improves overall survival (OS) and decreases toxicity, yet its value for money in the Australian setting is unknown. Our study assesses the cost-effectiveness of PK vs. body surface area (BSA) dosing of 5-FU for patients with mCRC. We developed a semi-Markov model with four health states to compare PK-guided dosing within a FOLFOX regimen vs. BSA-guided dosing for mCRC patients from an Australian healthcare system perspective. Transition probabilities were derived from fitted survival models, with utility values obtained directly from published studies. We calculated direct healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and included both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. BSA-guided FOLFOX provided 1.291 QALYs at a cost of $36 379, compared with PK-guided FOLFOX which delivered 1.751 QALYs at a cost of $32 564. Therefore, PK-guided dosing emerges as the dominant strategy offering both better health outcomes and lower costs. The variables that had the greatest impact on the overall ICER were the adverse event rates in the BSA and PK groups, model time horizon, utility of progression-free survival and PREDICT assay cost. Our univariate and multivariate sensitivity analysis confirmed that the ICER for PK FOLFOX consistently remained below $50 000 per QALY across all tested variables. PK dose management of 5-FU-based chemotherapy in mCRC patients appears to be a cost-saving strategy in Australia. However, our model estimates are drawn from limited, low-quality evidence. Further evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs), directly comparing PK-based to BSA-based dosing across a variety of current regimens, is needed to address our model's uncertainties.

Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study

Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe. From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs. Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation. BHP Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical smoking cessation intervention in China primary cancer prevention

Objectives: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of typical pharmaceutical smoking cessation intervention strategies in China in the context of primary cancer prevention. Methods: Markov cohort simulation models were established to simulate the burden of 12 smoking caused cancer, including lung cancer, oral cancer, nasopharyngeal cancer, laryngeal cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, pancreatic cancer, liver cancer, kidney cancer, bladder cancer, cervical cancer, and acute myeloid leukemia. Taking incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) as the main indicator, the model sets one year as the cycling period for 50 periods and simulates the cohort of 10 000 thirty-five-year-old current smokers with various smoking cessation strategies. To ensure the robustness of conclusion, univariate sensitivity analysis, probability sensitivity analysis, and age-group sensitivity analysis were conducted. Results: The results showed that varenicline intervention was the most cost-effective intervention. Compared to the next most effective option, incremental cost of each additional quality-adjusted life year is 11 140.28 yuan, which is below the threshold of willingness to pay (1 year GDP per capita). The value of ICER increased as the increasing age group of adopting intervention, but neither exceeded the threshold of willingness to pay. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the value of discount rate, the hazard ratio and cost of intervention strategy had a greater impact on the result of ICER. Conclusion: In China, the use of varenicline to quit smoking is highly cost effective in the context of cancer primary prevention, especially for younger smokers.

Comparative pharmacoeconomic analysis of rituximab and traditional tacrolimus regimens in membranous nephropathy in China.

Background: Rituximab (RTX) is a monoclonal antibody that selectively targets CD20 and is frequently used in the treatment of membranous nephropathy (MN). Analysis of the therapeutic efficacy and safety of RTX in treating MN in practice and a comparative pharmacoeconomic analysis of the RTX and traditional tacrolimus (TAC) regimens can provide valuable insights to aid decision-making by the government and relevant medical insurance departments. Methods: We conducted a statistical analysis of medical records from patients diagnosed with MN who underwent RTX treatment between 1 January 2019 and 1 January 2023. The TAC data were obtained from the clinical literature. The efficacy rates and incidence of adverse effects (AEs) were calculated to compare the efficacy and safety of RTX and TAC. Based on the patient's disease status, we developed a Markov model to compare the total cost, remission rate, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the two regimens. Both univariate and probability sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the stability of the developed model. Results: The RTX group enrolled 53 patients with MN, and the 12-month overall efficacy rate was not significantly different from that of the TAC group with 35 patients (86.79% vs. 71.4%, p = 0.0131); however, the relapse rate was significantly lower in the RTX group (3.77% vs. 22.8%, p = 0.016). The RTX group demonstrated no severe AEs (SAEs), while the TAC group demonstrated six cases of SAEs, including 4 cases of severe pneumonia, 1 case of lung abscess and 1 case of interstitial lung disease, accounting for 7.89% of traditional tacrolimus-treated patients. The baseline analysis results revealed that over a 5-year post-treatment period, RTX increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.058 and costs by ¥7,341. Assuming three times the 2022 domestic gross domestic product as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold per QALY, the ICER of RTX compared to TAC was ¥124,631.14/QALY, which is less than the WTP threshold of ¥257,094/QALY, indicating that RTX treatment is approximately two times more cost-effective compared to TAC. Conclusion: The current analysis indicates that despite the expensive unit price of RTX, it remains a cost-effective treatment option for MN compared to TAC.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy for advanced endometrial cancer.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy compared to chemotherapy alone, based on the results of the NRG-GY018 trial, in patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer (EC), stratified by mismatch repair-deficient (dMMR) and mismatch repair-proficient (pMMR) subgroups. A Markov model was used to simulate patients receiving either pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone. Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000/QALY. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of our findings. The addition of pembrolizumab to chemotherapy led to an incremental gain of 4.05 QALYs at an additional cost of $167,224, resulting in an ICER of $41,305.09/QALY compared to chemotherapy alone in dMMR EC. Additionally, there were 0.93 additional QALYs at an additional cost of $83,661, which resulted in an ICER of $90,284.80/QALY in pMMR EC. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the cost of pembrolizumab, utility of progressed disease, and utility of progression-free survival had the greatest impact on the results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that pembrolizumab was considered cost-effective at a 100% probability at a WTP threshold of $150,000 per QALY. Pembrolizumab, when combined with chemotherapy, was found to be cost-effective compared to chemotherapy alone both for patients with advanced or recurrent dMMR and pMMR EC from the perspective of a payer in the United States.

An Exploratory Analysis of the Cost-Effectiveness of a Multi-cancer Early Detection Blood Test Compared with Standard of Care Screening in Ontario, Canada.

Determining whether multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are cost effective is important in deciding whether they should be included in the clinical path of cancer care, especially for cancers where screening tools do not exist. The main objective of this study is to determine the cost effectiveness of including a MCED screening regimen together with existing provincial screening protocols for selected cancers that are prevalent in Ontario, Canada, among average risk persons aged 50-75 years. The selected cancers include breast, colorectal, lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, stomach, and ovarian. Cost effectiveness was estimated from a provincial Ministry of Health perspective. A state-transition Markov model representing the decision path of both the proposed and existing screening strategies along the natural history of the selected types of cancers was implemented. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using data from available literature and the guidelines published by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis, which included a discount rate of 1.5% applied to all costs and outcomes. Costs were also converted to 2022 Canadian dollars. To test the robustness of the model, both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. MCED screening resulted in more diagnosed cases of each type of cancer, even at an earlier stage of disease. This was also associated with fewer related deaths compared with standard of care. Notwithstanding, the analysis revealed that the MCED intervention was not cost effective [ICER: CAD$143,369 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)], given a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 per QALY. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses revealed that the MCED intervention strategy was preferred to standard of care no more than 2% of the time at this WTP for both males and females. The model was most sensitive to the cost of MCED screening, and the levels of specificity of the MCED and colorectal cancer screening tests. The main contribution of the study is to present and execute a methodological approach that can be adopted to test the cost effectiveness of an MCED tool in the Canadian setting. The model is also sufficiently generic that it could be adapted to other jurisdictions, and with consideration for increasing the WTP threshold beyond the common $100,000 per QALY limit, given the life-threatening nature of cancer, to ensure that MCED interventions are cost-effective.

Economic evidence supports the cost savings of sputum eosinophil counts to guide the treatment of pediatrics patients with persistent asthma: implications for clinical practice guidelines in middle-income countries

Background Tailoring asthma interventions based on biomarkers could substantially impact the high cost associated with asthma morbidity. For policymakers, the main concern is the economic impact of adopting this technology, especially in developing countries. This study evaluates the budget impact of asthma management using sputum eosinophil counts in Colombia patients between 4 and 18 years of age. Methods A budget impact analysis was performed to evaluate the potential financial impact of sputum eosinophil counts (EO). The study considered a 5-year time horizon and the Colombian National Health System perspective. The incremental budget impact was calculated by subtracting the cost of the new treatment, in which EO is reimbursed, from the cost of the conventional therapy without EO (management based on clinical symptoms (with or without spirometry/peak flow) or asthma guidelines (or both), for asthma-related). Univariate one-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Results In the base-case analysis, the 5-year costs associated with EO and no-EO were estimated to be US$ 532.865.915 and US$ 540.765.560, respectively, indicating savings for Colombian National Health equal to US$ 7.899.645, if EO is adopted for the routine management of patients with persistent asthma. This result was robust in univariate sensitivity one-way analysis. Conclusion EO was cost-saving in guiding the treatment of patients between 4 and 18 years of age with persistent asthma. Decision-makers in our country can use this evidence to improve clinical practice guidelines, and it should be replicated to validate their results in other middle-income countries.