United States Dollar Exchange Research Articles

Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dolar Amerika Serikat, Inflasi, Dan Produksi Terhadap Ekspor Ikan Hias Provinsi Jawa Timur

This study aims to determine and analyze the effect of the United States dollar exchange rate, inflation, and production on ornamental fish exports in East Java province. The researchers' strategy for this study is quantitative research, and they use statistical formulas to aid in the analysis of the data and information collected. The information used in this study is a subset of secondary data collected from organizations or organizations related to it and then reprocessed. The Central Bureau of Statistics of East Java and the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries are the organizations involved in this research. The Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of East Java and the Central Bureau of Statistics are the organizations involved in this research. Documentation, or finding information about a subject or variable in the form of notes, books, papers or articles, journals, etc., is a strategy used to collect data for the study. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) conducted using SPSS software is an analytical technique used to assess the impact of the US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and production on ornamental fish exports in East Java Province. The results of this study show that the BLUE test conducted on export variables has no correlation, statistical analysis shows that simultaneously exchange rate variables, inflation, production affect ornamental fish exports, partial analysis reveals that exchange rates have little influence on ornamental fish exports, partial analysis shows that ornamental fish exports are significantly positively affected by inflation. Partial analysis on ornamental fish production has a significant impact on ornamental fish exports.

Understanding the Moderating Role of Dollar Exchange Rate in Shaping the Linkages Between Foreign Direct Investment and Pakistan Stock Exchange Performance

The stock exchange market is a crucial component of the economy, providing investors with the opportunity to participate in the shares of different enterprises. This study investigates the influence of the United States Dollar exchange rate and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the Karachi Stock Exchange-100 index, a key component of the Pakistan Stock Exchange. Utilizing monthly data from July 2008 to March 2023, the research employs an Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity and Johnson Cointegration test for model confirmation. Results from the Granger Causality test highlight significant long-term relationships between FDI, inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, and the Karachi Stock Exchange-100 index. Conversely, the exchange rate and FDI exhibit statistical insignificance in the short term. Introducing moderation effects, the exchange rate demonstrates negligible long-term impact but reveals a negative short-term association with the Karachi Stock Exchange-100 index. Impulse response analysis indicates positive reactions to shocks for FDI, balance of payments, and the dollar exchange rate, with inflation and interest rates exhibiting negative responses. The study's novel contribution lies in uncovering the nuanced temporal dynamics between economic indicators and the stock market, offering valuable insights for policymakers crafting investment strategies to navigate market volatility and enhance stock market returns.

Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, dan Investasi Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia Tahun 2009 – 2018

This study was conducted to determine the effects of inflation, exchange rates, and investment on Indonesian exports in 2009–2018. Among the data used in this study are Indonesian inflation, US inflation, the middle rate of the US dollar, and investment, which includes domestic investment (PMDN) and foreign investment (PMA) on the value of Indonesia's exports. This study uses secondary data and data analysis techniques with multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the research that has been done, the results show that inflation, exchange rates, and investment have simultaneously had a significant effect on Indonesian exports from 2009–2018. Partially, the results show that both Indonesian and United States inflation and the United States dollar exchange rate had no significant effect on Indonesian exports in 2009–2018, and investment substantially impacted Indonesian exports in 2009–2018.

PENGARUH KONSUMSI, PRODUKSI DAN KURS DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

One of the government's policies in the field of international trade and finance is imports. The objectives to be achieved in this study are 1) to analyze the simultaneous effect of production, consumption and the United States dollar exchange rate on rice imports in Indonesia in 1989-2018; and 2) partially analyze the effect of production, consumption and the United States dollar exchange rate on rice imports in Indonesia in 1989-2018. The data collection method used in this study is to use non-behavioral observation methods. The data analysis technique used in this research is multiple linear regression analysis which includes simultaneous significance test (F test) and partial significance test (t test), classical assumption test which includes normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test. The results of this study are: 1) simultaneously consumption, production and the US dollar exchange rate, have a significant effect on Indonesian rice imports; and 2) partially consumption has a negative and significant effect on Indonesian rice imports, production partially has a significant positive effect on Indonesian rice imports, while the US dollar exchange rate has no effect on Indonesian rice imports. Keywords: consumption, production, exchange rate, Indonesian rice imports

PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA SBI, IMPOR DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP KURS RUPIAH/DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TAHUN 2010-2018

Exchange rate the value of country's currency with value of another country's currency, which used to conduct international trade. Currency exchange rates or exchange rates are one of the most important macroeconomic variables, because movements in the exchange rates will affect economic stability. The research objectives to 1) analyze the effect of SBI interest rates, imports, and exports simultaneously on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. 2) partially analyze the effect of SBI, Import, and Export interest rates on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. 3) determine the variables that have a dominant effect on the SBI, Import, and Export interest rates on the rupiah / US dollar exchange rate in 2010-2018. This study uses secondary data and multiple linear regression analysis. The results are 1) SBI interest rates, imports, and exports simultaneously have significant effect on the exchange rate / exchange rate. 2) SBI, Import, and Export interest rates have positive significant effect on the exchange rate / exchange rate. 3) The variable that has a dominant influence is the export variable.
 Keywords: Rupiah / United States dollar exchange rate, SBI interest rate, Import and Export

THE UNITED STATES’ MONETARY POLICY SPILLOVER EFFECT AGAINST RUPIAH -US DOLLAR EXCHANGE DURING USA – CHINA TRADE WAR

The United States (US) and China trade war has resulted in global economic crisis. This causes spillover effects to other countries due to the policies imposed by the two big countries. The objective of the research is to analyze the impact of Fed Fund Rate, as the monetary policy of the US, as well as other variables on the Rupiah -US Dollar Exchange Rate. The method used in this analysis is the Error Correction Model with time series data. The result indicates that in the long run the depreciation of Rupiah -US Dollar exchange rate is influenced by the increase of Fed Fund Rate, while there is no impact of Fed Fund Rate on Rupiah -US Dollar Exchange Rate in the short run. The results suggests that the US monetary policy during the trade war in form of the increase of Fed Fund Rate in long term has resulted spillover effect in Indonesia i.e., the depreciation of the Rupiah – US Dollar exchange rate.

Oil price volatility and US dollar exchange rate volatility of some oil-dependent economies

This paper examines the relationship and related causality patterns of oil price volatility and exchange rate volatility of a group of oil-dependent economies before and after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. We employed weekly time-series data of oil price and exchange rates for 2000–2007 (pre-crisis) and 2010–2016 (post-crisis). United States dollar exchange rates are for Ghanaian cedi, Nigerian naira, Russian ruble, Indian rupee, South African rand, and the Euro. To investigate the volatility impacts that exist between oil price and exchange rates during both sub-sample periods, we merged Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with GARCH and EGARCH models in the form of Bivariate VAR-GARCH and VAR-EGARCH. We further adopted the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to investigate related causality patterns. Empirical findings revealed both bidirectional and unidirectional relationship between oil price volatility and the exchange rates volatility of four out of the six oil-dependent economies considered for the study. These findings were more prevalent in the post-crisis period than the pre-crisis period. We also confirmed both bidirectional and unidirectional causality pattern between oil price volatility and exchange rate volatility of the same four currencies as observed with the VAR results in both sub-sample periods.

The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model in Forecasting Philippine Peso - United States Dollar Exchange Rates

It is known that in every quotation of exchange rates, there are two currencies involved. Exchange rate is defined as the price of a unit of foreign currency in terms of a domestic currency. This research aims to provide the best Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that forecasts the Philippine Peso - United States Dollar (PHP-USD) exchange rates using historical average monthly rates from January 2009 to December 2016. Forecasted values from different ARIMA models are compared in terms of errors with actual data values. The best ARIMA model produced is ARIMA(0, 2, 2), which yielded the lowest values for the different performance measures used.

The Influence of US Dollar Funding Conditions on Asian Financial Markets

More than 20 years after the Asian financial crisis, the region’s continued high reliance on United States (US) dollar-denominated funding has significant implications for the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic circumstances. Given limited domestic capital market-based financing solutions, a high reliance on funding denominated in US dollars renders countries vulnerable to changing global financial and liquidity conditions. Using a dynamic panel and a vector autoregression model to assess the exchange rate as a possible transmission channel, we find that changes in bilateral US dollar exchange rates can have a significant impact on sovereign credit risk. In particular, a depreciation of the domestic currency against the US dollar leads to a widening of the sovereign bond spread. This finding suggests a significant relationship between US dollar funding exposure, US dollar liquidity conditions, and domestic financial conditions in some emerging Asian economies, and thus highlights one source of structural vulnerability. Given that the magnitude of the effects varies across countries, policy makers need to monitor closely the interplay between the exchange rates and local financial market conditions with tailored prescriptions for domestic financial resilience.

Bitcoin Sentiment Index, Performance and US Dollar Exchange Rate

This study introduces a comprehensive Google search volume based Bitcoin sentiment index (BSI) by following the methodology of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2014). BSI is investigated for its association with Bitcoin returns, trade volume, volatility, and United States dollar exchange rates (USD). Results of the simple OLS regression clarify that BSI has a positive impact on Bitcoin returns and trade volume while it has a negative impact on the volatility of Bitcoin returns. Furthermore, the Auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been used to capture the relationship between BSI and Bitcoin price with USD. Empirical results of the ARDL model demonstrate that Bitcoin sentiments affect USD in the short-run but not long-run. However, Bitcoin's price can negatively affect USD in short as well as in the long-run. Error correction term represents a 38.50% adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium in one month if there is a deviation in the short-run. The results imply that investors in FOREX or public in general interested in Bitcoin trading should foresee sentiments of the public towards Bitcoin.

Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People’s Republic of China’s Growth

We identify five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 United States (US) dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. We use a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to analyze the determinants of movements in these exchange rates, and reveal that their impact on global oil prices and the People’s Republic of China’s growth has increased significantly since 2008. In particular, the variance of US dollar exchange rates has mainly been driven by these two shocks in recent years. The impact of monetary policy shocks on the currency pairs is comparatively small.

The Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: The Focus on Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE)

This paper aims to examine the existing relationship between the prices of different stocks traded in the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) and the Tanzanian Shillings – United States dollar exchange rates (TZS/USD). In this study, we use the daily data sets covering a period of six years from August 15, 2011 through July 28, 2017 making 1455 observations. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) – Granger Causality model is employed accompanied with several tests conducted on the variables and the model itself. The findings conclude that, there is a short-term association between Stock Prices (SP) and Exchange Rates (ExR). Additionally, Stock Prices Granger Causes Exchange Rates as evidenced by Granger Causality and the Impulse test. These findings are supported by the fact that shocks in the Exchange Rates have no effect in the Stock Prices. This could mean that an investor can invest in short term at the DSE.

Ways of (Virtual) Seeing: Applying a Bergerian Lens in a Multi-User Virtual Environment (MUVE)

Ways of (Virtual) Seeing: Applying a Bergerian Lens in a Multi-User Virtual Environment (MUVE)

Relationship between the gold price and the Australian dollar - US dollar exchange rate

The United States (US) dollar-based gold price and the exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the US dollar (AUD/USD) have a combined and significant impact on both the trend of the Australian minerals industry and the overall Australian economy. The trend in this case refers to the economic sustainability and growth of the minerals industry as well as the physical extraction and production rates of the collective industry. To estimate gold mining project values, it is necessary to determine the correlation between the gold price, stated in US dollars per ounce (US$/oz), and the relevant exchange rate, being the Australian dollar against the US dollar (AUD/USD). In this empirical study, the aim is to investigate the long - run relationship between the US quoted gold price and the relevant periodic exchange rates (AUD/USD), and to determine the correlation coefficient between them using weekly average data over the period 1996 to 2014. In addition, the continuously compounded percentage return series for gold prices and AUD/USD exchange rates has been calculated, the results of which have exposed an interesting finding in that a bi-directional causality exists between the continuously compounded percentage return of periodic gold prices and the returns of the commensurate AUD/USD exchange rates. Especially for approximating mining project values, mine managers and other decision makers need to be cautious about different uncertainties including financial and economic uncertainties, and the inter correlation and long term relationships among economic variables. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and modified Dickey-Fuller methods of analysis have been performed using generalised least squares (DF-GLS) tests to examine whether the time series data are stationary. Arising from this it has been observed that all of the tests have confirmed both the gold price and the AUD/USD exchange rate data series are I (1) stationary at a 1 % significance level. In addition, Johansen cointegration tests for examining the long – run relationship have been performed, and it was determined that there is a long term relationship between the gold price and the exchange rate (AUD/USD). Vector auto regression (VAR) tests revealed that there is bi-directional causality between the gold price and the AUD/USD exchange rate, and it is also supported by the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) impulse – response functions (IRFs) analysis. Furthermore, the study revealed that a strong positive correlation between the gold price and the AUD/USD exchange rate exists, and it also exposed that a one percent increase in the nominal gold price leads to an appreciation of the AUD/USD nominal exchange rate by approximately 0.5 %.

The association between lower back pain and health status, work productivity, and health care resource use in Japan.

IntroductionThis study investigated the effect of pain severity on health status, work productivity, health care resource use, and costs among respondents with lower back pain (LBP), in Japan.Materials and methodsData from the 2013 Japan National Health and Wellness Survey, a survey of Japanese adults, were analyzed (N=30,000). All respondents provided informed consent, and the protocol was institutional review board-approved. Respondents who reported experiencing LBP were propensity score–matched to those without LBP, based on demographics and health history. Using regression modeling, patients with mild, moderate, and severe pain were compared against matched controls, with respect to health status (Mental and Physical Component Summary scores, and health utilities from the Short Form®-36 Health Survey version 2), work productivity (Work Productivity and Activity Impairment – General Health version), health care resource use, and annual per-patient costs (estimated using published annual wages and resource use event costs).ResultsA total 1,897 patients reported experiencing LBP in the past month (6.32%); 52.45% reported their pain as mild, 32.79% as moderate, and 14.76% as severe. Increasing pain severity was associated with significantly lower levels of mental component scores (46.99 [mild], 42.93 [moderate], and 40.58 [severe] vs 48.10 [matched controls]), physical component scores (50.29 [mild], 46.74 [moderate], and 43.94 [severe] vs 52.93 [matched controls]), and health utilities (0.72 [mild], 0.66 [moderate], and 0.62 [severe] vs 0.76 [matched controls]) (all P<0.05). Indirect costs were significantly higher (P<0.05) among those with moderate (¥1.69 million [MM] [equivalent to $17,000, based on United States dollar exchange rates on September 1, 2014]) and severe (¥1.88 MM [$19,000]) pain, relative to matched controls (¥0.95 MM [$9,500]). Direct costs were only marginally different (P=0.05) between those with severe pain and matched controls (¥1.33 MM [$13,000] vs ¥0.54 MM [$5,000]).ConclusionIncreasing pain severity among respondents with LBP was associated with significantly worse health status, to a clinically-relevant degree, along with greater indirect and direct costs, in Japan.

Oil prices and the dollar dilemma

Ole Gunnar Austvik THIS PAPER EXAMINES the impact of changes in the United States dollar's exchange rate on the oil market. The discussion uses a partial equilibrium model to illustrate how disequilibrium in the oil market occurs, and how a new equilibrium may be reached when dollar exchange rates fluctuate. Oil prices are influenced by a number of economic, political and psychological factors. In order to determine how exchange rates make an impact, it is useful to rely upon a model based on partial analysis. This method enables us to examine the impact of exchange rate fluctuations'on oil prices, independently from other variables. Thus, in the model presented in this paper, we exclude such variables as how exchange rate fluctuations affect macro-economic conditions and subsequently oil demand, the effects of the substitution of other energy sources either globally or regionally, the fact that a number of countries have large debts and assets held in dollars, the fiscal policy each country applies to chrrency rate changes, and other economic and political factors which have an impact on the level and structure of demand; supply and the price of crude oil. We also exclude from our analysis the repercussions of oil price changes back onto currency markets. The development of oil prices in different currencies in recent years is described in section 1. In particular, this discussion focuses upon the differences between oil prices denominated in European currencies and US dollars. In section 2, a partial equilibrium model of the oil market is introduced to illustrate how oil prices, both in US dollars and other currencies, react to fluctuations in exchange rates. Some concluding comments are made in section 3.