Unit Record Files Research Articles

Digital Gram Panchayat

Abstract: While digital Gram panchayat monitoring your security system, there are a lot of factors to take into account. It is the duty of every village to accurately record the details of every villager. Every village uses the same system, and at the end of the year, they all submit a finalized unit record file of villagers. The administrator can show the information if there are plans or possibilities for farmers. The administrator has access to this Web application. The administrator has complete control over the user's information, forms, and profile on the system

Mortality risks associated with floods in 761 communities worldwide: time series study

ObjectiveTo evaluate lag-response associations and effect modifications of exposure to floods with risks of all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality on a global scale.DesignTime series study.Setting761 communities in 35 countries...

Association between Malnutrition and Delirium in Older Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Units: A Data Linkage Study

BackgroundIndependently, malnutrition and delirium in older hospitalised adults is prevalent. However, there is limited evidence on the association between these two conditions in older hospitalised adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD).ObjectivesTo determine the association between malnutrition and delirium in older CKD patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU).MethodsThis data linkage study utilised administrative data from New South Wales (NSW) hospitals in Australia between 2017 and 2020. Admitted patient data was linked with Cause of Death Unit Record File, and NSW Registry of Deaths (RBD). The study population comprised all CKD patients aged 65 and over admitted to ICUs. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise patient characteristics. Binary logistic tested for association between malnutrition and delirium.ResultsThe study population included 748 CKD patients with a total 948 admissions in the study period. The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10) was used to code for all outcomes and comorbidities. The incidence of delirium was 15.5% (n=141) and malnutrition was recorded in 11.3% (n=103) across all admissions. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of a delirium diagnosis was 2.07 (95% CI: 1.27–3.39) for CKD patients that were malnourished compared to non-malnourished CKD patients.ConclusionsThis study showed a significant association between delirium and malnutrition in older CKD patients admitted to ICU. Management of malnutrition could be critical in reducing the risk of delirium in older hospitalized patients with CKD. Additionally, more education and awareness around delirium and its association with malnutrition are needed in clinical practice.

A focus on sex differences in drowning deaths in Australia: the need for reporting on sex and gender in drowning research

AimAn evidence gap exists on sex and gender differences in drowning with previous research neglecting females. Drowning studies have largely focused on accidental drowning and submersion, excluding other classifications such as intentional, water transport-related, and undetermined drowning. This study examined all external causes of drowning deaths over a 13-year period in Australia disaggregated by sex. Drowning deaths were compared by sex with drowning classification, year, month, age, place of death, Indigenous status, socioeconomic, and visitor status.Subject and methodsThis retrospective total population study included all females and males who died from drowning in Australia from 2006 to 2019. Data was extracted from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Cause of Death Unit Record Files. Australian population data were extracted to calculate the crude death rate and relative risk for drowning.ResultsThere were 4007 drowning deaths recorded, and females represented 25.2% of drowning fatalities. Females were less likely than males to drown, including by drowning classification, year, month, state, remoteness and visitor status, age, socioeconomic, and Indigenous status. The highest proportion of female drowning deaths were from intentional drowning, fall into swimming pools, and in natural water. Drowning deaths among females increased as age increased.ConclusionThere is a clear need for improved disaggregation of sex and gender in drowning research. Without the detailed exploration of females in drowning statistics there will be limited knowledge translation specific to females. The development of drowning prevention strategies targeted to females is required to reduce the incidence and risk of drowning.

Risk of repeat self-harm and suicide death following an episode of hospital self-harm presentation among adolescents and young adults

BackgroundSelf-harm is a critical issue affecting young people which could result in adverse outcomes including repeat episodes and suicide. In this study, we aimed to estimate the short-term and long-term risk of repeat self-harm and subsequent suicide death following self-harm presentations among adolescents and young adults. MethodsUsing linked data from the New South Wales (NSW) Emergency Department Data Collection (EDDC), the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection (APDC), and cause of death unit record file (COD-URF), we collected all self-harm presentations to emergency departments and/or hospitals and suicide deaths between 2012 and 2019 in NSW, Australia. We used survival analysis models to estimate the incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide by time since the index self-harm and relative risks by sex, type of hospital presentation and count of self-harm records. ResultsIn total, we identified 81,133 self-harm episodes among 48,547 individuals aged 10–29 years. Of 48,547 individuals who engaged in an index self-harm during the study period, 39.5 % (19,180) were aged between 15 and 19 years. The incidence of both repeat self-harm and suicide were highest in the year following the index self-harm presentation (repeat self-harm: 188.84 per 1000 person-years; suicide: 3.30 per 1000 person-years) and declined to 14.51 and 0.28 per 1000 person-years after five years. Among individuals indexed for self-harm at 15–29 years, males and those who were admitted to hospital for the index self-harm had the highest risk of both subsequent repeat self-harm and suicide death and those with 2 or more self-harm presentation records had the higher risk for subsequent suicide death. ConclusionAdolescents and young adults with self-harm presentations were at a high risk of subsequent repeat self-harm and suicide death, especially the first year after presentations. Youth-specific early intervention and long-term management should be delivered accordingly, especially for those at early adolescence .

International classification of disease based injury severity score (ICISS): A data linkage study of hospital and death data in Victoria, Australia

BackgroundSurveillance of severe injury incidence and prevalence using ICD-based injury severity scores (ICISS) requires valid, locally applicable diagnosis-specific survival probabilities (DSPs). This study aims to derive and validate ICISS in Victoria, Australia, and compare various ICISS methodologies in terms of accuracy and calculated severe injury prevalence. MethodsThis study used injury admissions (ICD-10-AM coded) from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Database (VAED) linked with death data (Cause of Death – Unit Record Files: CODURF). Using design data (July 2008 – June 2014; n = 720,759), various ICISS scales were derived, based on (i) in-hospital and (ii) three-month mortality. These scales were applied to testing data (July 2014 – December 2016; n = 334,363). Logistic regression modelling was used to determine model discrimination and calibration. ResultsIn the design data, there were 6,337(0.9%) hospital deaths and 17,514(2.4%) three-months deaths; in the testing data, there were 2,700(0.8%) hospital deaths and 8,425(2.5%) three-month deaths. Newly developed ICISS scales had acceptable to outstanding discrimination, with Area Under the Curve ranging from 0.758 to 0.910. Age-specific ICISS scales were superior to general ICISS scales in model discrimination but inferior in model calibration. Calculated severe injury (ICISS ≤0.941) prevalence in the testing data ranged from 2% to 24%, depending on which mortality outcomes were used to calculate DRGs. ConclusionsThis study provides local, validated ICISS scores that can be used in Victoria. It is recommended that age group stratified ICISS based on the worst-injury method is used. From the comparison of various ICISS scores, reflecting the range of ICISS permutations that are currently in use, care should be taken to compare ICISS methodology before comparing severe injury prevalence per population, injury cause, and time trends.

Reviewing causes of death of individuals with intellectual disability in New South Wales, Australia: a record-linkage study.

People with intellectual disability (ID) have a much higher mortality rate than the general population. To reduce the rate of mortality of people with ID, it is critical that causes of death are properly understood, recorded and reported. Formal reviews of causes of death are used in some countries to ensure that causes of death are accurate. To date, the impact of these formal reviews on understanding causes of death of people with ID has not been quantified. The study aimed to quantify the impact of formal reviews of deaths on the understanding of causes of death of people with ID who died while living in residential care. Individuals (851) with ID who died in residential care in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 1 December 2002 and 31 December 2013, who had a cause of death recorded in both the NSW Cause of Death Unit Record File (COD-URF; cause of death recorded at time of death) and NSW Ombudsman dataset (cause of death recorded after in-depth review) were included in the study. We assessed agreement in coding for cause of death by comparing the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) codings at three levels of diagnostic specificity, for both underlying and additional causes of death. We conducted our analysis through both descriptive comparison and through two boosted regression trees. Approximately half of the underlying causes of death were different after review by the NSW Ombudsman compared with the COD-URF. Certain causes of death (determined by ICD-10 chapter) were less likely to predict matches between the dataset than others, with individuals with mental, behavioural and neurodevelopmental disorders recorded in the COD-URF least likely to have a matching cause of death in NSW Ombudsman dataset. For deaths where there was no agreement at any level between the datasets, a high level of unknown causes of death was recorded. Formal review of deaths of people with ID in residential care is important to determining true causes of death and therefore developing appropriate health policy for people with ID.

Unintentional and intentional drug poisoning deaths, Australia, 2012–2016: Drug pattern profile and demographic characteristics

BackgroundIdentifying differences in unintentional versus intentional drug poisoning deaths can inform targeted prevention. This study aimed to: compare unintentional versus intentional drug poisoning deaths by drug involvement, age and sex; describe patterns of drug involvement by intent; and describe common drug patterns by age and sex. MethodsCases comprised deaths among Australians aged ≥15 where drug poisoning was the underlying cause (Cause of Death Unit Record File 2012–2016). Sex, age, and drug involvement were analysed by intent using logistic regression. ResultsOf 7994 deaths, 71% were unintentional and 24% intentional. Compared with unintentional deaths, intentional deaths were more likely among females (OR 1.31 [95% CI 1.16–1.48]) and those aged 55+ (1.50 [1.25–1.81] for 55–64 years; 3.79 [3.07–4.66] for 65+ years, compared to 35–44 years), and were more likely to involve hypnosedatives (2.11 [1.87–2.39]), other psychotropic medicines (1.58 [1.39–1.78]), non-opioid analgesics and anaesthetics (1.48 [1.25–1.73]). Common unintentional profiles comprised: opioids (excluding heroin); heroin; alcohol; opioids with hypnosedatives; opioids with hypnosedatives and other psychotropic medicines; stimulants; other psychotropic medicines; and opioids with other psychotropic medicines. Unintentional deaths involving heroin or stimulants only had a greater proportion of males (79.0% and 83.4%, respectively) and younger individuals aged 15–34 (30.3% and 39.5%, respectively). Common intentional profiles comprised: hypnosedatives; other psychotropic medicines; opioids (excluding heroin); hypnosedatives with other psychotropic medicines; opioids with hypnosedatives; and opioids with hypnosedatives and other psychotropic medicines. ConclusionThe demographic and drug involvement profile of intentional and unintentional deaths were distinct, suggesting different approaches to prevention are necessary.

The steady progress of Non-English-Speaking migrant women’s labour market participation in Australia

This study deals with the labour force participation of Non-English-Speaking migrant women and draws a comparison with that of Australian-born women, using the 2016 Australian Confidentialised Unit Record File (CURF) Microdata based on a 1% sample from the Australian 2016 Census. A general probit model is used to estimate the probability of labour market participation of both groups, as well as for each of the groups separately, attributable to various factors. The results suggest that the participation rate of Non-English-Speaking migrant women (58.9%) is increasing over time, but is still much lower than for Australian-born women (69.5%), with the gap narrowing over time. Further, it also shows a reduced chance of participation in the labour market when they are old, married, and have children. However, Non-English-Speaking migrant women are more likely to participate than Australian-born women when they are old, married, and have children due to economic needs. Providing excellent English, education, recognition of overseas qualifications and experiences together with easy access to childcare might help Non-English-Speaking migrant women to further increase their chance of participation in the Australian labour market.

Description and prediction of outcome of drowning patients in New South Wales, Australia: protocol for a data linkage study

IntroductionDespite being a preventable cause of death, drowning is a global public health threat. Australia records an average of 288 unintentional drowning deaths per year; an estimated annual economic burden...

Reaching at-risk rural men: An evaluation of a health promotion activity targeting men at a large agricultural event.

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of an Australian Men's Shed Association's 'Spanner in the Works?' health promotion tent in reaching at-risk rural men during a large agricultural event in rural Australia. Men who self-presented to the health promotion tent had basic health measurements and risk scores recorded. These were linked to a short survey asking about their primary health care engagement. To determine the 'reach' afforded to health professionals through their presence at the agricultural event, the mean systolic blood pressure and waist circumference measures of participants were compared to those of rural men nationally using the ABS' National Health Survey 2017-2018 Basic Confidentialised Unit Record File (CURF). Of the 401 men who visited the health promotion tent, 346 (86.3%) consented to participate in the study. The median age of participating men was 56years. The majority (94.0%) were from rural areas. Of participating men, 58.9% had high blood pressure, and their mean systolic blood pressure was significantly higher than that of rural men nationally: both overall (Mean difference=15.37mm Hg), and at all age groups. Participants also had significantly higher waist circumference overall (Mean difference=2.06cm), but this was only significantly different for the 45-54 age group. The 'Spanner in the Works?' initiative was effective in reaching both healthy and at-risk rural men from a range of ages. SO WHAT?: Aligned with the National Men's Heath Strategy 2020-2030, this evidences that agricultural events are an effective social setting for the provision of health promotion to 'at risk' rural men.

High-risk lifestyle and all-cause mortality in older Australians with stroke: A data linkage study

Abstract Background Stroke prevention via lifestyle modification is a public health priority in developed countries. Few studies have examined the association of high-risk lifestyle factors with long-term mortality of stroke survivors. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effect of key lifestyle factors on all-cause mortality after stroke. Methods Sample is derived from the 45 and Up Study, the largest ongoing study in the Southern Hemisphere focusing on the health of people aged 45 years and older living in NSW, Australia. The lifestyle data in the 45 and Up Study between 2006 to 2015 were linked with data from the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages, NSW Cause of Death Unit Record File, and NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection by the Centre for Health Record Linkage. We defined a high-risk lifestyle as no vigorous exercise, smokers, or > 10 alcoholic drinks/week. Multivariate Cox regression model is used to examine the effect of high-risk lifestyle on survival using 10-year all-cause mortality as the main outcome, adjusted for key confounders. Results We analysed information on 8410 adults with a stroke event occurring prior to the baseline 45 and Up Study, and 31% of them died in 10 years. 6219 participants were identified as having a high-risk lifestyle at baseline. Being a current smoker and without vigorous exercise were associated with 41% (95% CI: 16%, 73%) and 52% (95% CI: 30%, 78%) increase in the likelihood of death in 10 years, respectively. However, high-risk alcohol drinking was not significantly associated with survival. Of note, having cardiovascular-related comorbidities showed greater risks of mortality (HR range, 3.6-7.2). Conclusions High-risk lifestyle factors were associated with an increased risk of long-term all-cause mortality, suggesting that enhancing public health initiatives to promote 'healthy' lifestyle behaviours can be of great benefit to stroke survivors. Key messages It is essential for stroke survivors to maintain a healthy lifestyle to delay all-cause mortality. Stroke survivors with high-risk lifestyle may be associated with increased likelihood of death if they have comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension.

How to increase the value of self-reported health service data by using data linkage: a case study

Abstract Background This is a case study for recurrent stroke prevention. Lifestyle factors account for about 80% of the risk of recurrent stroke. Most health services studies examining stroke prevention rely on stroke survivors' self-reported lifestyle behaviour data. How can researchers increase the value of collected self-reported data to provide additional information for more comprehensive assessments? Methods 45 and Up Study is the largest ongoing study in the Southern Hemisphere focusing on the health of people aged 45 years and older living in NSW, Australia. This case study linked self-reported longitudinal lifestyle data in the 45 and Up Study, with corresponding mortality data (i.e. NSW Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages & NSW Cause of Death Unit Record File) and hospital data (i.e. NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection) via the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL). The main outcome measures are health services, clinical outcomes, and mortality rates for stroke care. The analyses will include descriptive analysis, multivariate regression analysis, and survival analysis. Results A total of 8410 stroke survivors who participated in the 45 and Up Study were included in this data linkage study. From January 2006 to December 2015, 99249 hospital claims (mean: 13 times admission to hospital per person) and 2656 death registration records have been linked to these participants. The mean age of the stroke survivors was 72 (SD = 11) years, with 56% being males. These results are preliminary and more analyses will be conducted by using quality of life status, clinical diagnosis, comorbidities, and procedures. Conclusions Data linkage enables researchers to generate comprehensive findings on health services studies and gain a more holistic understanding of the determinants and outcomes of stroke prevention with lower data collection costs and less burden on participants. Key messages Data linkage brings about a new opportunity for self-reported data on health services utilisation. It is a cost-effective way to enhance existing self-reported data via the data linkage approach to increase its usefulness for informing health service planning.

Using data linkage to enhance the reporting of cancer outcomes of\xa0Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in NSW, Australia

BackgroundAboriginal people are known to be under-recorded in routinely collected datasets in Australia. This study examined methods for enhancing the reporting of cancer incidence among Aboriginal people using linked data methodologies.MethodsInvasive cancers diagnosed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, in 2010–2014 were identified from the NSW Cancer Registry (NSWCR). The NSWCR data were linked to the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection, the NSW Emergency Department Data Collection and the Australian Coordinating Register Cause of Death Unit Record File. The following methods for enhancing the identification of Aboriginal people were used: ‘ever-reported’, ‘reported on most recent record’, ‘weight of evidence’ and ‘multi-stage median’. The impact of these methods on the number of cancer cases and age-standardised cancer incidence rates (ASR) among Aboriginal people was explored.ResultsOf the 204,948 cases of invasive cancer, 2703 (1.3%) were recorded as Aboriginal on the NSWCR. This increased with enhancement methods to 4184 (2.0%, ‘ever’), 3257 (1.6%, ‘most recent’), 3580 (1.7%, ‘weight of evidence’) and 3583 (1.7%, ‘multi-stage median’). Enhancement was generally greater in relative terms for males, people aged 25–34 years, people with cancers of localised or unknown degree of spread, people living in urban areas and areas with less socio-economic disadvantage. All enhancement methods increased ASRs for Aboriginal people. The weight of evidence method increased the overall ASR by 42% for males (894.1 per 100,000, 95% CI 844.5–945.4) and 27% for females (642.7 per 100,000, 95% CI 607.9–678.7). Greatest relative increases were observed for melanoma and prostate cancer incidence (126 and 63%, respectively). ASRs for prostate and breast cancer increased from below to above the ASRs of non-Aboriginal people with enhancement of Aboriginal status.ConclusionsAll data linkage methods increased the number of cancer cases and ASRs for Aboriginal people. Enhancement varied by demographic and cancer characteristics. We considered the weight of evidence method to be most suitable for population-level reporting of cancer incidence among Aboriginal people. The impact of enhancement on disparities in cancer outcomes between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people should be further examined.

What's driving innovation in small businesses in Australia? The case of the food industry

There is strong evidence that innovation is a primary driver of a nation's economic growth. As Australia continues to compete in the global economy, it is imperative that businesses should be innovative to improve their performance. In this paper, we evaluate the status and main drivers of innovation in small businesses in the food sector in Australia. Discrete choice modelling and bootstrapping procedures are applied to a panel of firm‐level data collected through theABSBusiness Characteristics Survey (2006–2007 to 2010–2011 for the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Business Longitudinal Database Confidential Unit Record File) to investigate the factors affecting the likelihood of small food businesses to innovate. Results show that businesses are more likely to innovate if they collaborate, have higher information and communication technology intensity, and use science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills. We also found that small food businesses, even at the subsector level, do combine different types of innovation when innovating. The propensity to innovate also increases for small businesses that have flexible working arrangements, face moderate‐to‐strong market competition, operate overseas and seek finance through debt and equity. The relative importance of these factors was found to vary between agricultural and nonagricultural food subsectors.

Cost of high prevalence mental disorders: Findings from the 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing.

The aim of this project was to detail the costs associated with the high prevalence mental disorders (depression, anxiety-related and substance use) in Australia, using community-based, nationally representative survey data. Respondents diagnosed, within the preceding 12 months, with high prevalence mental disorders using the Confidentialised Unit Record Files of the 2007 National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing were analysed. The use of healthcare resources (hospitalisations, consultations and medications), productivity loss, income tax loss and welfare benefits were estimated. Unit costs of healthcare services were obtained from the Independent Hospital Pricing Authority, Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Labour participation rates and unemployment rates were determined from the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. Daily wage rates adjusted by age and sex were obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics and used to estimate productivity losses. Income tax loss was estimated based on the Australian Taxation Office rates. The average cost of commonly received Government welfare benefits adjusted by age was used to estimate welfare payments. All estimates were expressed in 2013-2014 AUD and presented from multiple perspectives including public sector, individuals, private insurers, health sector and societal. The average annual treatment cost for people seeking treatment was AUD660 (public), AUD195 (individual), AUD1058 (private) and AUD845 from the health sector's perspective. The total annual healthcare cost was estimated at AUD974m, consisting of AUD700m to the public sector, AUD168m to individuals, and AUD107m to the private sector. The total annual productivity loss attributed to the population with high prevalence mental disorders was estimated at AUD11.8b, coupled with the yearly income tax loss at AUD1.23b and welfare payments at AUD12.9b. The population with high prevalence mental disorders not only incurs substantial cost to the Australian healthcare system but also large economic losses to society.

A Directional Mixed Effects Model for Compositional Expenditure Data

ABSTRACTCompositional data are vectors of proportions defined on the unit simplex and this type of constrained data occur frequently in Government surveys. It is also possible for the compositional data to be correlated due to the clustering or grouping of the observations within small domains or areas. We propose a new class of the mixed model for compositional data based on the Kent distribution for directional data, where the random effects also have Kent distributions. One useful property of the new directional mixed model is that the marginal mean direction has a closed form and is interpretable. The random effects enter the model in a multiplicative way via the product of a set of rotation matrices and the conditional mean direction is a random rotation of the marginal mean direction. In small area estimation settings, the mean proportions are usually of primary interest and these are shown to be simple functions of the marginal mean direction. For estimation, we apply a quasi-likelihood method which results in solving a new set of generalized estimating equations and these are shown to have low bias in typical situations. For inference, we use a nonparametric bootstrap method for clustered data which does not rely on estimates of the shape parameters (shape parameters are difficult to estimate in Kent models). We analyze data from the 2009–2010 Australian Household Expenditure Survey CURF (confidentialized unit record file). We predict the proportions of total weekly expenditure on food and housing costs for households in a chosen set of domains. The new approach is shown to be more tractable than the traditional approach based on the logratio transformation.

Estimating small-area Indigenous cultural participation from synthetic survey data

Lack of data on the spatial distribution of the social conditions of Australia's Indigenous peoples has created difficulties in the allocation of government and community programs. Small-area estimation methods can overcome this lack of data, but typically require access to a unit record file. However, strict confidentiality rules applied to these unit record files may hinder the development of these models. In Australia, unit record data for the Indigenous population is analysable only using Australian Bureau of Statistics servers remotely. This study looks specifically at this issue and offers a solution to the problem of confidentiality restrictions by using a synthetic database. The results show that reasonable small-area estimates of social conditions for Indigenous Australians can be derived from a small-area estimation (spatial microsimulation) model using a synthetic database. While this application is for Australia, the method developed can be used for any small-area model requiring unit record data that are not available due to confidentiality restrictions.

Income Tax, Income Contingent Education Loans and the Taxpayer Parallax

In designing tertiary education income contingent loans (ICL), primary attention has been focussed on designing arrangements which improve access to and affordability of education. In contrast, much less attention has been given to how best to design the repayment of those loans in a way which minimizes any adverse behavioural response by ICL debtors. With more governments moving to increase the student contribution to the cost of their education, the likely magnitude of an individual’s ICL debt can not only impact their education take-up, but once incurred can result in adverse behavioural responses during the ICL debt decumulation phase. This paper argues that two main factors drive the behaviour of those with an ICL debt during the decumulation phase. The first is the basis for determining ICL repayment (including base, rates and thresholds) and the second is the size of an individual’s ICL debt. Just as the interaction between tax rates and transfer means tests combine to adversely impact the transition from welfare to work, the interactions between ICL debt level, repayments and personal income tax can adversely impact the transition from study to work, with implications for ICL repayment and income tax compliance. To provide insight into these issues, the 2011-12 Australian Taxation Office 2% sample unit record file of individual tax returns is examined for differences firstly between Australian taxpayers with and without a Higher Education Loans Program (HELP) debt, and secondly, between those taxpayers with varying levels of HELP debt but comparable income levels. While some strong evidence was found for differences between HELP and non-HELP debtors from the Australian data, the paper highlights the need for more research into this issue before conclusive findings can be made that ICL debt does influence taxpayer behaviour. Such research should be a high priority because in the Australian case, between 2011-12 and 2017-18, HELP debtors are expected to increase 95% and average debt levels 41%.

Generating a Dynamic Synthetic Population – Using an Age-Structured Two-Sex Model for Household Dynamics

Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution.