Unidirectional Volatility Spillover Research Articles

Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and green bond markets

In this paper, we examine dynamic frequency spillovers, co-movements and volatility transmission among green bond yields and crude oil. We use different econometric methods including the Baruník and Křehlík (2018) [thereafter BK-18], DCC-GARCH, BEKK-GJR-GARCH, and Wavelet coherence. The results of BK-18 show that the spillover between green bonds is higher in short-term horizons than in intermediate- and long-term horizons. Furthermore, Industrial and Securitized ABS bonds are weakly connected with other green bonds. The findings of BEKK-GJR-GARCH model shows the negative unidirectional volatility spillover from oil to Global GB markets, indicating the hedging ability of green bonds against the oil. The dynamic conditional correlations are negative between oil and Industrial and Securitized ABS over sample period, suggesting them as strong hedge and safe haven against the oil. The Wavelet Coherence analysis reveals that the connectedness is weak between crude oil and green bonds in most of the short and long run. However, we observe the leading role of oil against green bonds in for short period of time. Finally, the spillovers and hedging effectiveness results reveal that the crude-oil- and green-bond-based portfolios provide huge diversification benefits to investors and portfolio managers.

The Asymmetric Volatility Spillover and Dynamic Correlation Across Equity Markets in China and The United States

This paper aims to study the volatility spillover effects as well as the dynamic conditional correlation between stock market returns in China and the U.S. Firstly, the analysis uses a vector autoregression with a bivariate BEKK-GARCH model to capture the asymmetric volatility transmissions between the two markets during the sample of 1996-2019. Then a VAR-DCC-GARCH model is employed to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between these two market returns. Finally, linear regression and Granger Causality test are conducted to further explore the effect of the U.S policy rates on such correlation. In order to account for the U.S monetary stances during the unconventional period, a combination of Fed fund rates and Shadow rates developed by Wu and Xia (2016) is used as policy rates. The main empirical results suggest (1) evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from the U.S. to China market; but no spillover from China to U.S; (2) the dynamics of the conditional correlations from the VAR-DCC-GARCH model exhibit increases in correlation between the stock returns of China and U.S after 2008 financial crisis and recent trade war; (3) a linear regression shows that there is negative relationship between U.S policy rates and the dynamic conditional correlation, with the correlation coefficient r=-0.62. Granger Causality test suggests that the U.S policy rates do cause the change of the conditional correlation but not the other way around.

Dependencies and Volatility Spillovers among Chinese Stock and Crude Oil Future Markets: Evidence from Time-Varying Copula and BEKK-GARCH Models

This paper investigates co-movements among the Chinese stock market, Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures. We use Copula models to capture tail dependencies and employ the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to examine the direction of volatility spillovers. We find that there are positively time-varying dependency relationships among the three markets. Compared with the corresponding upper-tail dependencies, the lower-tail dependencies were larger before the COVID-19 pandemic while relatively weaker after the breakout of the pandemic. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was only a statistically significant volatility spillover from WTI crude oil future market to the INE crude oil future market. After the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were statistically significant volatility spillovers in the two pairs of markets, namely, the WTI–INE and Chinese stock–WTI. However, we only find statistically significant evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from the Chinese crude oil future market to the Chinese stock market during the pandemic.

Volatility Spillovers between Stock Market and Hedge Funds: Evidence from Asia Pacific Region

This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and hedge funds returns in twelve Asia Pacific countries in the 1997–2018 period. The sample period encompasses sub periods, 1997 Asia financial crisis, 2008 Global financial crisis and 2010 Eurozone crisis; these sub periods were characterised by financial upheavals. We apply the EGARCH methodology to model volatility and volatility spillovers in and between the markets. Our results show that the volatility of stock returns does not affect the volatility of hedge funds returns; however, there are inconsistent evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from hedge funds to stock market returns.

Impact of Brexit on bond yields and volatility spillover across France, Germany, UK, USA, and India’s debt markets

Britain’s decision to exit the EU lead to disruptions in global markets. This study investigates the change in the return and volatility spillover pattern due to the repercussions of the Brexit vote between the US, France, the UK, Germany, and India’s 10-year government bond yields by applying the VAR and GARCH-BEKK models. The findings demonstrate a substantial rise in the return spillover to India and USA 10-year government bond yields following the Brexit vote compared to the pre-Brexit vote era. In addition, the results showed evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from India to France, bidirectional volatility spillover between the USA and India, and unidirectional volatility spillover from the UK to India 10-year government bond market post-Brexit vote. However, there was no interconnection between these markets before the Brexit vote. Therefore, the Brexit vote did affect and significantly increased the linkage between the US, France, the UK, and India’s 10-year government bond market. The increase in correlation in India-US, India-UK, and India-France’s 10-year government bond markets will help predict and have an important implication for hedgers, decision-makers, and portfolio managers if similar political events occur in the future.

Does offshore NDF market influence onshore forex market? Evidence from India

AbstractThe paper uses a vector error correction model–multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity approach to examine the interrelationship between onshore and offshore nondeliverable forward (NDF) markets for the Indian Rupee. The empirical results suggest a stable and bidirectional long‐run relationship between onshore and offshore markets. The subperiod analysis implies that there are unidirectional mean spillovers from NDF markets to onshore spot, forward, and futures markets during the post‐taper tantrum period. Regarding “volatility spillover,” the analysis indicates a unidirectional volatility spillover from spot and forward segments to NDF market in normal circumstances, which turns bidirectional during times of depreciation pressure on the rupee.

How does sovereign bond volatility interact between African countries?

The importance of sovereign bond as a source of financing revenue deficit, benchmarking for corporate bonds and debt management in Africa, calls for continual monitoring of its volatility dynamics. This study evaluates the nature of sovereign bond volatility interaction between African countries using bivariate BEKK-GARCH (1, 1) model. Based on a sample of eight African countries, the results show evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from Morocco sovereign bond to Egypt sovereign bond. Next, the results show absence of volatility interaction between Ghana and Nigeria sovereign bonds. The results further show the existence of bidirectional volatility transmission between Uganda and Kenya. Finally, the results indicate evidence of bidirectional volatility interaction between Botswana and South Africa. Overall, the results show existence of full interaction between Uganda–Kenya and Botswana–South Africa sovereign bond returns, partial interaction between Egypt and Morocco sovereign bond returns and no interaction between Ghana and Nigeria sovereign bonds markets. Thus, these results provide valuable implications for sovereign and corporate credit risk management, as well as strategy for monitoring and minimising negative effect of sovereign bond volatility spillover in Africa.

Return and Volatility Spillover between Cryptocurrency and Stock Markets: Evidence from Turkey

The aim of the study investigates the return and volatility spillovers and conditional correlations between Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index (BIST100) and Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTH) using daily data for the period between August 07, 2015 and May 20, 2021 with VAR-DCC-GARCH model. We find no bidirectional return spillovers between BIST100 and cryptocurrencies. In line with the volatility spillover results of the study, it has been determined that there is a unidirectional shock transmission from BIST100 to BTC, XRP and LTH, and a unidirectional volatility spillover from BIST100 to BTC and ETH. Also, in the study, it has been determined that the dynamic conditional correlations between BIST100 and four cryptocurrencies have a highly variable over time and their average is very close to zero. However, in possible panic periods, the situation is reversed

Modelling the mean and volatility spillover between green bond market and renewable energy stock market

<abstract><p>In this paper,we investigate the mean and volatility spillover between the price of green bonds and the price of renewable energy stocks using daily price series from 02/11/2011 to 31/08/2021. The unrestricted trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model is employed to examine potential causality,mean,and volatility spillover effects from the green bond market to the renewable energy stock market and vice-versa. The results from the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model indicate that there exists a uni-directional Granger causality from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. While the price of green bonds is positively influenced by its own lagged values and the lagged values of renewable energy stock prices,only the past price value of renewable energy stocks has a positive effect on the current price value. We identified a uni-directional volatility spillover from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. However,there was no shock spillover from both sides of the market. This research shows that investors in the green bond market should always consider information from the renewable energy stock market because of the causal link between renewable energy stocks and green bonds.</p></abstract>

Dynamic interdependence and volatility spillovers across bunker fuel markets and shipping freight markets

ABSTRACT This study firstly explores dynamic volatility spillovers across bunker fuel markets in shipping industry. Volatilities in bunker markets are measured by using the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. And then bunker volatility spillovers across markets are studied. Our analysis provides an evidence of unidirectional volatility spillovers within Asian (European/American) region and across regions, and also documents that Singapore bunker market is a leading market in transmitting volatility within Asian region and across regions. Furthermore, we measure time-varying volatility spillover effects among Singapore bunker market and shipping freight markets, and between Singapore bunker spot and futures market. The results reveal information transmission and could assist market participants and stakeholders to adjust hedging strategies and minimize risks according to the interrelationships across markets.

Dynamic Co-movement and Volatility Spillover Effect Between Sukuk and Conventional Bonds:A Comparison Study Between ASEAN and GCC

Sukuk and conventional bonds gain their popularity in the global market. Hence, an observation of the dynamic correlation and transmission of volatility between these two instruments is relevant. This article investigates the volatility spillover of sukuk and conventional bond markets by using GARCH-BEKK model. Then, we measure the dynamics of the co-movement of both markets by using GARCH-DCC model, and finally, we examine the macroeconomic factors that determine the dynamic conditional correlation between sukuk and conventional bonds in two Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) markets (i.e., Indonesia and Malaysia) and four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets (i.e., Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Oman). The data reveal unidirectional and bidirectional volatility spillovers of sukuk and bond indices. The results also show strong evidence of dynamic conditional correlation for all markets. On the basis of the BEKK and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) results, we infer that bonds and sukuk in ASEAN and GCC markets show the efficiency of the markets, which do not offer any diversification benefits to investors for having both instruments in their portfolios. As regards portfolio diversification strategies, investors must pay attention to the co-movements and spillover of both markets accordingly. Finally, only Oman market is influenced by all macroeconomic variables.

Volatility Spillovers among Developed and Developing Countries: The Global Foreign Exchange Markets

In this paper, we investigate the “static and dynamic” return and volatility spillovers’ transmission across developed and developing countries. Quoted against the US dollar, we study twenty-three global currencies over the time period 2005–2016. Focusing on the spillover index methodology, the generalised VAR framework is employed. Our findings indicate no evidence of bi-directional return and volatility spillovers between developed and developing countries. However, unidirectional volatility spillovers from developed to developing countries are highlighted. Furthermore, our findings document significant bi-directional volatility spillovers within the European region (Eurozone and non-Eurozone currencies) with the British pound sterling (GBP) and the Euro (EUR) as the most significant transmitters of volatility. The findings reiterate the prominence of volatility spillovers to financial regulators.

Interdependence among West African stock markets: A dimension of regional financial integration

AbstractUnderstanding the nature of interdependence between international stock markets is vital for portfolio diversification, risk management and market regulation. This paper examines the nature of interdependence among West African stock markets using correlation analysis, the Granger causality test and a multivariate BEKK‐GARCH (1,1) model. The results show evidence of a weak relationship among West African stock markets. The results also show absence of causal dependence between the Côte d'Ivoire BRVM (Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières), and the Ghana stock market, but evince feedback relationship between the Côte d'Ivoire BRVM and the Nigeria stock market as well as between the Ghana and Nigeria stock markets. The results further reveal no evidence of volatility spillover between the Côte d'Ivoire BRVM and the Ghana stock market, but show evidence of unidirectional volatility spillover from the Nigeria stock market to the Côte d'Ivoire BRVM as well as bidirectional volatility spillover between the Nigerian and Ghanaian stock markets. Overall, the findings reveal existence of weak interdependence among West African stock markets, and that West African financial markets are interdependent through the Nigerian market. These findings are relevant to stock market stabilisation and investment policy in West Africa.

Information transmission and hedging effectiveness for the pairs crude oil-gold and crude oil-Bitcoin during the COVID-19 outbreak

This study uses hourly data to analyse the return and volatility transmission of oil-gold and oil-Bitcoin pairs during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods. The results show that the return transmissions vary across the two periods for both pairs. There is a unidirectional volatility spill-over from gold to oil in the pre-COVID-19 period, and from oil to gold during the COVID-19 period. There is a significant volatility spill-over from Bitcoin to oil during the pre-COVID-19 period, whereas no evidence of volatility spill-over between oil and Bitcoin is shown during the COVID-19 period. Based on optimal weights, investors should increase their investments in, (a) gold for a portfolio of oil-gold, and (b) Bitcoin for a portfolio of oil-Bitcoin during the COVID-19 period. All hedge ratios are higher during the COVID-19 period, implying a higher hedging cost compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. The results of hedging effectiveness reveal that the risk-adjusted returns can be improved by constructing a portfolio of oil-gold and oil-Bitcoin during both sample periods. Further results reveal that gold is a strong safe haven and a hedge for the oil market, while Bitcoin serves as a diversifier for the oil market during the COVID-19 period.

Dynamics of Return Linkages and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers among Asian Emerging Stock Markets

The purpose of this study to investigate the dynamics of return linkages and volatility spillovers between Asian emerging stock markets (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, and South Korea). To achieve this task, we used bivariate EGARCH (1) model. We used daily closing stock prices from January 01, 2010, to December 31, 2018. The findings revealed that the own lagged spillovers are statistically significant in all cases at one percent level. Our findings also show that the asymmetric volatility spillovers are significant in all sampled stock markets except China. We find unidirectional volatility spillovers from the markets of China toward Hong Kong, Malaysia toward South Korea, Hong Kong toward South Korea, Pakistan toward Hong Kong, and Japan toward South Korea. Moreover, the volatility spillovers in the majority stock markets are significant and bidirectional. Therefore, these markets are interrelated, and the spillover effect should be taken into consideration by policymakers who are responsible for economic decision making as they can save the financial sector from unexpected financial shockwaves.

Borsa Endeksi, Döviz Kuru, Faiz Oranları ve CDS Primleri Arasındaki Oynaklık Yayılımları: Türkiye Örneği

In recent years, the volatility of financial assets has significantly increased. High volatility causes instability in financial markets and increases portfolio risks. Under these conditions, modeling the volatility, determining the volatility relationships, and volatility spillovers are important for market actors. In this study, for the period January 2, 2010 - April 10, 2020, it was investigated the volatility spillover and correlation relationship between the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 Index, the exchange rates ($/ ), interest rates, and credit default swap (CDS) premiums. It was also examined the effects of economic, political, and social factors on the correlation relationship. In the study, it was seen that the bidirectional volatility spillover between the BIST 100 index - exchange rates, interest rates - exchange rates, and CDS premiums – interest rates, on the other hand, unidirectional volatility spillover from CDS premiums to the exchange rates. A positive volatility relationship was determined between CDS premiums - interest rates and CDS premiums - exchange rates while the negative volatility relationship between interest rates - BIST 100 index and CDS premiums - BIST 100 index. It was also determined that political, economic, and social factors affect the relationships of correlation between variables.

BORSA, DÖVİZ KURU VE PETROL FİYATLARI ARASINDAKİ OYNAKLIK YAYILIMI

Küreselleşme, piyasalar arasındaki ilişkileri artması, finansal piyasalardaki risklerin yükselmesi, iletişim araçlarının yaygınlaşması ve iletişim maliyetinin düşmesi gibi konular piyasalar arasındaki oynaklıkların artmasına neden olmuştur. Oynaklık ve oynaklık yayılımları finansta önemli hale gelmiştir. Piyasalar arasındaki oynaklık yayılımlarının bilinmesi yatırım kararlarının verilmesi, çeşitlendirme ile riski azaltımı, portföy yönetimi, fiyat keşfi, uluslararası sermaye hareketleri gibi konular bakımından önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul (BİST), döviz kuru ($/₺) ve petrol (WTI) arasındaki oynaklık yayılımları araştırılmıştır. Çalışma 04.01.2010 – 15.03.2019 dönemine ait günlük verilerle yapılmıştır. Değişkenler GARCH modeliyle tahmin edildikten sonra Hong’un (2001) varyansta nedensellik testi ile oynaklık yayılımları ve DCC GARCH yöntemiyle de değişkenler arası ilişkiler araştırılmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları Borsa İstanbul ve döviz kuru arasında karşılıklı, petrolden ise Borsa İstanbul ve döviz kuruna doğru tek yönlü oynaklık yayılımları olduğunu göstermiştir. DCC GARCH yönteminde ise petrol ile Borsa İstanbul arasındaki ilişki belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Borsa İstanbul ve döviz kurunda oluşan oynaklıklarda petrolün önemli bir belirleyici olduğunu göstermektedir.

Volatility transmissions across international oil market, commodity futures and stock markets: Empirical evidence from China

This paper uses a trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to investigate the dynamic relationship among the Chinese stock market, commodity markets and global oil price. We find significant unidirectional return spillover effect from oil market to stock market, suggesting a strong dependence of the Chinese stock market on the oil market. Our results show significant unidirectional return interaction from the Chinese stock market and global oil market to key commodities indicators in China. In particular, significant return contagions from the Chinese stock market to copper and aluminium futures and from oil market to silver, copper and aluminium markets are observed. Non-existence of return spillovers between gold and stock (oil) suggests the safe-haven role of the gold. In terms of the volatility spillovers, we find bidirectional shocks spillovers between oil and stock markets but unidirectional volatility spillovers from the oil market to the Chinese stock market. For commodities, we show evidence of strong uni-directional shock and volatility spillovers from stock market or oil market to commodities market. However there are no spillover effects from all the commodity markets to either stock market or oil market, implying potential diversification benefits from the Chinese commodity markets. Finally, the paper highlights the results which potentially have important implications for portfolio management and hedge strategies. • We investigate dynamic relationships between Chinese stock-market, commodity markets and global oil prices • We find a strong dependence of the Chinese stock market on the oil market. • Strong bidirectional shock spillovers between oil and stock markets is reported • Significant contagion from the Chinese stock market to copper and aluminium futures are observed • Potential diversification benefits from China’s commodity markets are found to support risk and portfolio management.

Crude oil price and cryptocurrencies: Evidence of volatility connectedness and hedging strategy

Abstract This paper examines the volatility connectedness between crude oil spot prices and cryptocurrencies. Given that cryptocurrency markets are perceived as commodity markets, there exist some levels of effects from and to other markets like the crude oil (petroleum) market. Using the VAR − MGARCH − GJR − BEKK techniques and the Wald tests, we found evidence of bidirectional volatility spillover between the crude oil market and Bit Capital Vendor as well as a unidirectional volatility spillover effect from crude oil market to Bitcoin Cash market and finally, Ethereum, XRP, and ReddCoin cryptocurrency markets have a significant unidirectional volatility spillover to the crude oil markets. In addition, while the hedging potentials of crude oil assets on Ethereum cryptocurrency may be short-lived, the crude oil asset hedging potentials for Solve, Elastos and Bit Capital Vendor are rather long-lived into the future.

Volatility Spillover Between Stock Prices and Trading Volume: Evidence From the Pre-, In-, and Post Global Financial Crisis Periods

Stock prices and trading volumes are two important indicators of financial markets. As a result of the fluctuations caused by the economic crises in the markets, it is seen that the variance does not remain constant in financial market data over time. For this reason, in this study, volatility spillover between stock prices and trading volume is examined within the framework of the mixed distributions hypothesis in Turkish capital markets. The causality test in variance was applied to the data covering 02 January 1997- 29 December 2017 period. In order to identify the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the data are divided into three sub-periods: the pre-crisis period (02 January 1997 to 29 September 2008), in-crisis period (3 October 2008 to 30 September 2009) and the post-crisis period (1 October 2009 to 29 December 2017). The findings indicate the existence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between stock price and trading volume in the pre- and post-crisis periods. In the crisis period, there is a unidirectional volatility spillover from stock prices to trading volume. This shows that while the volatility of stock price affects the trading volume with lags in the crisis period, the volatility of stock price and trading volume in the non-crisis periods affect each other. The results include important findings for both policymakers and investors and for future work.